As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting – politicalbetting.com
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Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I really think we are nearing a tipping pointrottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already1 -
That was my point. The case numbers and death rate numbers would need to be well above the UK for a long long time to even come close.eristdoof said:
And if you do want to play the numbers game youre not going to win. The number of cases* in the UK has been way way above the number of German cases since April. (Replace with any metric you want).kle4 said:
It would now need to go far far worse than us in this wave, to come anywhere close to how bad we have been overall however, if we are playing a numbers game.RobD said:
Don't Germany now have 10k+ confirmed cases per day, with fewer tests? Seems to have gone the same direction there as in the UK.eristdoof said:
Neither the German Government nor the NZ government has cocked it up, and there are others too. However The UK government is at the other end of the cock up spectrum, but to be fair they are not alone.DavidL said:
Yeah, them and every other government in the world. Or we may just have a pandemic that will inevitably return every time we try anything like normal. What do you think?CorrectHorseBattery said:FPT: @isam the first lockdown worked, it got cases and R down.
We need the same again now the Tories have cocked it up so poorly.
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Good News - just checked on the status of my election ballot with the King County Elections on-line Ballot Tracker.
I returned my ballot in person to KCE HQ on at noon this Tuesday. And according to the Tracker, as of 3pm today, Thursday, the ballot has been entered into the system, my signature has been checked and validated, and my ballot has been approved for counting.
Not too shabby for govt work!3 -
Is this one of those the beatings will continue until morale improves totalitarian things?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
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I have no idea but are you saying the comments today about Xmas have been welcomeTheuniondivvie said:
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I really think we are nearing a tipping pointrottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already0 -
Were you an Instrument of Government or Humble Petition and Advice man, when it comes to your codified constitutions?TheScreamingEagles said:
That has pained me for so long.RobD said:
Didn't Parliament declare this period of history null and void, to be erased from the legal records? Perhaps parliament isn't as sovereign as I had once thought.kle4 said:
Maybe the gov will revive thisBig_G_NorthWales said:
I really think we are nearing a tipping pointrottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
https://www.british-history.ac.uk/no-series/acts-ordinances-interregnum/p954
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Away from Trump and Wales there are 2 Provincial elections in Canada this weekend.
On Saturday the BC NDP are aiming at repeating the NZ outcome. Electing a majority Social Democratic government, after a period in minority with support from the Greens in the first snap election since 1986. They look likely to do so with c 45-50% in the polls, compared to 33-35 for the Liberals and 11-15% for the Greens. This lead has widened during the campaign.
Then on Monday in Saskatchewan the originally named Saskatchewan Party (an amalgam of Cons and Libs) is aiming for a fourth consecutive term. Should be easy as they are polling between 52 and 60% compared to 33-36 for the NDP.1 -
Define works.rkrkrk said:
If the lockdown works, I expect a flurry of posts on welsh population density, why its ludicrous to compare wales to england and theories about natural celtic immunity.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
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I'm an Instrument of Government chap, although if I were the Lord Protector my answer maybe different.kle4 said:
Were you an Instrument of Government or Humble Petition and Advice man, when it comes to your codified constitutions?TheScreamingEagles said:
That has pained me for so long.RobD said:
Didn't Parliament declare this period of history null and void, to be erased from the legal records? Perhaps parliament isn't as sovereign as I had once thought.kle4 said:
Maybe the gov will revive thisBig_G_NorthWales said:
I really think we are nearing a tipping pointrottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
https://www.british-history.ac.uk/no-series/acts-ordinances-interregnum/p9540 -
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Rough lockdown haircut.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
Newsnight interview now with the under house arrest Michael Cohen.0
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Perhaps the concern was for the rest of the patients in the hospice ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Utter nonsenseRoy_G_Biv said:
Motes and beams. If Boris's government had done its job properly, a lot of those people wouldn't have died at all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And Horse backs this idiotic cruel regimeisam said:
These are elderly parents terminal ill not related to covid
What on earth can the children do to them
And reading the article, I’m pretty sure this was an account from earlier in the pandemic, and that both guidance and provision, though still inadequate, have since improved ?
None of which is to defend what happened in this case, though.0 -
Have the Russians allowed voting in Abkhazia and South Ossetia? (joke!)TheScreamingEagles said:2 -
You are saying that the clearly expressed will of the people should be ignored and overridden by the politicians if it is for a manifestly moronic and irreparably damaging course of action?isam said:
Yes it worked so well people think we apparently need another one... then another, then another... then if we aren’t all dead, the country will be skint. What a lifeCorrectHorseBattery said:FPT: @isam the first lockdown worked, it got cases and R down.
We need the same again now the Tories have cocked it up so poorly.1 -
Very, very good!kle4 said:
And if we visit the rest of it we are travelling back to the 1930sYBarddCwsc said:
To be fair to Drakeford, it was a Tory AM (Russell George) who raised the matter that the big supermarkets could sell things like clothes, whilst small retailers can't during lockdown
So, it was Tory pressure that propelled this policy forward.
As I keep on saying, outside of Cardiff & Swansea, there aren't that many huge Tesco Extras in Wales to buy all these jeans, T-shirts and iPads anyhow.
It is nice that pb.com is so collectively worried about the Welsh going without ready access to supermarket shirts, but -- actually -- we have managed so far without any problems.
When you visit most of Wales, you are travelling back in time to the 1960s.
?0 -
Iranian false flag obvsTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Republicans have had a decade, and Trump a full term, to come up with a straight answer to this straight question on healthcare.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/13193253072252026950 -
It look like the photo was taken at the barber shop, he already has the cape in place. Hopefully its a before picture.kle4 said:
Rough lockdown haircut.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
ALways good for these updates from the ground.SeaShantyIrish2 said:Good News - just checked on the status of my election ballot with the King County Elections on-line Ballot Tracker.
I returned my ballot in person to KCE HQ on at noon this Tuesday. And according to the Tracker, as of 3pm today, Thursday, the ballot has been entered into the system, my signature has been checked and validated, and my ballot has been approved for counting.
Not too shabby for govt work!0 -
Seems to be wearing that thing the hairdresser puts round your shoulders, though, so presumably the before in a before and after.kle4 said:
Rough lockdown haircut.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I don't like it but did anyone actually think anything else was going to be the case at Christmas? Best case scenario was only ever going to be something like the rule of 6 indoors for a day or so, and that may well still be the case, just merely that you're definitely not going to be having 20 folk round for Xmas dinner.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no idea but are you saying the comments today about Xmas have been welcomeTheuniondivvie said:
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I really think we are nearing a tipping pointrottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
What the journalists should really be asking is why, if Leitch said yesterday that basically everything we do today only has any payback 4 weeks from now, then a 2 week (or 16 days or whatever it was) mini lockdown in the central belt was ever going to be a workable idea - because you would not know at the end of it if it was working, by their own expectations?
I think it is the blatant moving of the goalposts I don't like there. Just come out and say it now, your business is closed until further notice, your Christmas is cancelled without anything changing, your life is on hold for as long as it takes...where we don't know what "it" is.
Not "we'll do this short thing and then we'll lift it on this date honest...oh no we won't lift it even before we are at the end of it".
I've seen too many articles now saying "even if there's a vaccine, don't expect normal for a while". We're getting softened up for that one next. But the first government to come out and say that might find themselves with a mob at the gates.0 -
Yes, that was my thought. Trying to protect staff, other patients, and other visitors.Nigelb said:
Perhaps the concern was for the rest of the patients in the hospice ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Utter nonsenseRoy_G_Biv said:
Motes and beams. If Boris's government had done its job properly, a lot of those people wouldn't have died at all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And Horse backs this idiotic cruel regimeisam said:
These are elderly parents terminal ill not related to covid
What on earth can the children do to them
And reading the article, I’m pretty sure this was an account from earlier in the pandemic, and that both guidance and provision, though still inadequate, have since improved ?
None of which is to defend what happened in this case, though.
In general there's a problem with emotive topics like being reported in this way, just playing on the very real heartache but not giving proper context. It tends to play on people's emotions rather than give a real sense of whether there's a problem, what that problem is, where it's come from, and what should be done.
It brings on aimless rage, and makes reasonable people unreasonable.0 -
What oft was thought, but ne'er so well expressed.Mexicanpete said:
It look like the photo was taken at the barber shop, he already has the cape in place. Hopefully its a before picture.kle4 said:
Rough lockdown haircut.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
For @CorrectHorseBattery
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010#data
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid?
A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon0 -
That was hope I clung to with an poorly advised trade on the primary market where I hoped a strong Bernie performance would swing things in my favour.NickPalmer said:
I dunno - if Trump avoids disaster tonight, there may be a temporary blip in the betting. It's priced in that he'll be terrible, and conceivably he won't be.Alistair said:So I seem to have sold out of the market at the worst possible moment.
Ugh.
I still think Biden will win either way, though!
It didn't happen.0 -
Tory comedians, none of them make me laugh, but they are the future... or do I mean the present? Northcott, Boris, Gove, Williamson, Raab...Theuniondivvie said:Just catching Geoff Northcott in the flesh for the first time on the BBC just now.
What an unfunny prick.0 -
The Royals' traditional Christmas was always a little different from that of we plebs.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1319400025902952448?s=200 -
Thoughts on lockdown:
- It's an indication of failure. Other measures haven't worked or haven't been implemented.
- Lockdown is unlikely to be stupid. It may not be effective.
- You should definitely want lockdown to work. It's the last throw of the dice.
0 - It's an indication of failure. Other measures haven't worked or haven't been implemented.
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A nut, but a well resourced one (he had $500k in the van).TheScreamingEagles said:
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/522346-north-carolina-man-arrested-with-van-full-of-guns-and-explosives-had-plans-to0 -
If I didn't know you better, I might think you were picking on Horse this evening.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And Horse backs this idiotic cruel regimeisam said:0 -
Again, it is interesting to see what others don't know.solarflare said:
I don't like it but did anyone actually think anything else was going to be the case at Christmas? Best case scenario was only ever going to be something like the rule of 6 indoors for a day or so, and that may well still be the case, just merely that you're definitely not going to be having 20 folk round for Xmas dinner.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no idea but are you saying the comments today about Xmas have been welcomeTheuniondivvie said:
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I really think we are nearing a tipping pointrottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
What the journalists should really be asking is why, if Leitch said yesterday that basically everything we do today only has any payback 4 weeks from now, then a 2 week (or 16 days or whatever it was) mini lockdown in the central belt was ever going to be a workable idea - because you would not know at the end of it if it was working, by their own expectations?
I think it is the blatant moving of the goalposts I don't like there. Just come out and say it now, your business is closed until further notice, your Christmas is cancelled without anything changing, your life is on hold for as long as it takes...where we don't know what "it" is.
Not "we'll do this short thing and then we'll lift it on this date honest...oh no we won't lift it even before we are at the end of it".
I've seen too many articles now saying "even if there's a vaccine, don't expect normal for a while". We're getting softened up for that one next. But the first government to come out and say that might find themselves with a mob at the gates.
To me, it seems obvious that 2 months from now, it is very very unlikely that everyone coming round each others houses will be a good idea.
Even if a 90% effective vaccine is released tomorrow, that would just give enough time to make a dent in vaccinating people. Assuming that millions of doses are already on hand.1 -
You missed out if it does work, you need better plans for what to do next.FF43 said:Thoughts on lockdown:
- It's an indication of failure. Other measures haven't worked or haven't been implemented.
- Lockdown is unlikely to be stupid. It may not be effective.
- You should definitely want lockdown to work. It's the last throw of the dice.
0 - It's an indication of failure. Other measures haven't worked or haven't been implemented.
-
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like.Nemtynakht said:For @CorrectHorseBattery
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010#data
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid?
A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths.
In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules.
Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide.
But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.3 -
No I don’t think I said anything like that.IshmaelZ said:
You are saying that the clearly expressed will of the people should be ignored and overridden by the politicians if it is for a manifestly moronic and irreparably damaging course of action?isam said:
Yes it worked so well people think we apparently need another one... then another, then another... then if we aren’t all dead, the country will be skint. What a lifeCorrectHorseBattery said:FPT: @isam the first lockdown worked, it got cases and R down.
We need the same again now the Tories have cocked it up so poorly.
Poor effort. Something in the water tonight0 -
My Dems Texas bet is now in bigger profit than my Dems NC bet.
That makes no sense.0 -
My favourite story of the Imperial Japanese Navy was this..TOPPING said:
Is this one of those the beatings will continue until morale improves totalitarian things?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
After the war, the Americans were trying to figure out the liquid oxygen torpedos the Japanese had been sending their way. Captured examples tended to explode if you sneezed at them.
The Japanese navy guys were quite helpful. Apparently, the defueling (well de-oxidisering) procedure went like this -
- strand the torpedo in shallow water
- everyone retreat to the middle distance.
- a spanner
- the least valueable guy on torpedo handling crew.
Apparently 70% of the time this worked without a bang....0 -
Thems the rules in England too, from this government of yours. Only Mrs Foxy can visit her mum on the Isle of Wight, not her sister. That's how support bubbles work.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt2 -
I think that what will happen is that there will be enormous support for lockdowns. And absolutely no compliance.kle4 said:
One more lockdown (national, or tiered regional), I suspect, up to the new year. My gut, unreliable though it is, just has a feeling the tide will start turning on that psycological janus point. alex_ makes the point quiet persuasively I think that mentally we are not prepared for the long term. I think that is despite some comments stating that would be the case, and a surprising acceptance level so far.rottenborough said:
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill motherRobD said:
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?CorrectHorseBattery said:
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.RobD said:
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.CorrectHorseBattery said:Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
It is morally bankrupt
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?1 -
A proof read before I posted would have helped.IshmaelZ said:
What oft was thought, but ne'er so well expressed.Mexicanpete said:
It look like the photo was taken at the barber shop, he already has the cape in place. Hopefully its a before picture.kle4 said:
Rough lockdown haircut.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.0 -
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEmsSeaShantyIrish2 said:Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.0 -
But the deaths at the moment relate to the current system with speed limits and safety measures etc. In the 60 s and 70s there were multiple times that. Safety measures were introduced that kept the utility of the car but made it safer for everyone.Roy_G_Biv said:
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like.Nemtynakht said:For @CorrectHorseBattery
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010#data
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid?
A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths.
In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules.
Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide.
But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
The proven measures for Covid are hand washing, social distancing, and protection of the vulnerable through rigorous infection control at hospitals and care homes. The rest of the measures including masks are just playing at the edges.compared to those. They keep the utility of society, and other measures go beyond that. They make life worse for limited benefit. If NICE were doing an evidence based assessment of the measures they would find the evidence inconclusive and certainly not worth the cost to the economy, and opportunity cost of lost lives through things like extra heart attacks, undiagnosed cancers.0 -
Mr Sea Shanty, like your thoughts on the Monmouth poll today on Iowa districts 1 through 3. These are nominally Dem +1, Dem +1 and GOP +1 but the Dem candidates are up by 10, 9 and 11 according to Monmouth. Would you read this the same way as me in that this bodes badly for Trump in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEmsSeaShantyIrish2 said:Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.0 -
Can see and appreciate all the arguments on this one. From CHB lockdown hard now. To Contrarian don't. And everything in between .
All make logical sense in their own way.
Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices.
We will only have an inkling of a clue who was right several years from now.
It is worth arguing about, certainly, but perhaps not breaking friends about.3 -
Not sure we will even then. Pandemics are about the most complex of adaptive systems you'll encounter. There is simply a limit to what we can actually know about them, and while elements of them will be predictable, the whole will through up emergent properties that are simply unknowable ahead of time, and not susceptible to reductionist analysis after the event.dixiedean said:Can see and appreciate all the arguments on this one. From CHB lockdown hard now. To Contrarian don't. And everything in between .
All make logical sense in their own way.
Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices.
We will only have an inkling of a clue several years from now.
PS This will not, of course, stop some from claiming to have the right answer at any point in the process. However, anyone who speaks with certainty is delusional.0 -
Yes. And this is not a left right issue. Nor an ethical one. No matter how much interested parties try to make it so.TimT said:
Not sure we will even then. Pandemics are about the most complex of adaptive systems you'll encounter. There is simply a limit to what we can actually know about them, and while elements of them will be predictable, the whole will through up emergent properties that are simply unknowable ahead of time, and not susceptible to reductionist analysis after the event.dixiedean said:Can see and appreciate all the arguments on this one. From CHB lockdown hard now. To Contrarian don't. And everything in between .
All make logical sense in their own way.
Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices.
We will only have an inkling of a clue several years from now.
PS This will not, of course, stop some from claiming to have the right answer at any point in the process. However, anyone who speaks with certainty is delusional.
It is a visceral, instinctive issue. Which is why there are strange bedfellows abounding.1 -
The most predictable thing about this debate is that Trump will throw a hissy fit after his mike is cut off. So, avoiding what would be a disaster for any other politician is going to pretty hard.NickPalmer said:
I dunno - if Trump avoids disaster tonight, there may be a temporary blip in the betting. It's priced in that he'll be terrible, and conceivably he won't be.Alistair said:So I seem to have sold out of the market at the worst possible moment.
Ugh.
I still think Biden will win either way, though!0 -
Yes. Speaking just for my own bailiwick, fact that Seattle return rate is running ahead of rest of King Co AND ahead of WA State as a whole, tells me that Democrats in particular are turning out big time.MikeSmithson said:
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEmsSeaShantyIrish2 said:Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
Republicans and Independents are also turning out in record numbers, but (based on Seattle) not at same rate as Democrats. Not yet, anyway.
Am doing a deeper dive into return numbers tonight, in search of partisan and demographic trends re: early ballot returns.0 -
Mr Shanty, did you see my question to you on Monmouth's Iowa congressional race polling?0
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There are all districts with (what passes in Iowa as) some urban/suburban turf, but mostly rural, and just about all ag-dependent one way or another.TimT said:
Mr Sea Shanty, like your thoughts on the Monmouth poll today on Iowa districts 1 through 3. These are nominally Dem +1, Dem +1 and GOP +1 but the Dem candidates are up by 10, 9 and 11 according to Monmouth. Would you read this the same way as me in that this bodes badly for Trump in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEmsSeaShantyIrish2 said:Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
In these kind of districts, would expect Democrats for Congress and other offices, in competitive races, to run somewhat AHEAD of Biden. Indeed, may be way for some voters to resolve their ambivalence re: Trumpsky?
So am cautious that these excellent numbers for Hawkeye State congressional Dems to translate directly into votes for Uncle Joe. On the other hand, it is NOT good news for Trumpsky and fellow Putinists.0 -
ThanksSeaShantyIrish2 said:
There are all districts with (what passes in Iowa as) some urban/suburban turf, but mostly rural, and just about all ag-dependent one way or another.TimT said:
Mr Sea Shanty, like your thoughts on the Monmouth poll today on Iowa districts 1 through 3. These are nominally Dem +1, Dem +1 and GOP +1 but the Dem candidates are up by 10, 9 and 11 according to Monmouth. Would you read this the same way as me in that this bodes badly for Trump in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEmsSeaShantyIrish2 said:Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
In these kind of districts, would expect Democrats for Congress and other offices, in competitive races, to run somewhat AHEAD of Biden. Indeed, may be way for some voters to resolve their ambivalence re: Trumpsky?
So am cautious that these excellent numbers for Hawkeye State congressional Dems to translate directly into votes for Uncle Joe. On the other hand, it is NOT good news for Trumpsky and fellow Putinists.0 -
The current Welsh option has to be up there as pretty close to banning all motor transport for a fortnight.Roy_G_Biv said:
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like.Nemtynakht said:For @CorrectHorseBattery
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010#data
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid?
A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths.
In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules.
Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide.
But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
Its likely to have a similar effect on the numbers - transmission will probably fall, but as the fundamental state of play won't have changed at the end of it, it won't be long before the numbers are back where they are now again - very much like banning driving for a fortnight would cut road deaths for a couple of weeks, but won't make a lot of difference in the long run.
The fundamental problem with lockdowns is the total absence of a coherent endgame.
Unless there is some way out of this which doesn't involve everyone getting the disease, lockdowns are pointless but expensive can kicking (rather like the endless Brexit extensions - they only postponed exactly the same issues as everyone started with).
There isn't a silver bullet on the horizon. A vaccine isn't going to be enough (you can tell this from the way that governments are starting to talk about this going on all next year).
At some point lockdowns will stop working entirely, if that hasn't already happened. Based on what's happened in say Boulton over the summer, where various levels lockdown have made almost no difference to case numbers, it's quite possible that point has already pretty much been reached.
People have had enough (I'm honest, I'm one of them), and aren't taking a blind bit of notice of the rules if they even know what they are, so the only practical outworking of the restrictions is the ruination of the businesses forced to close (mind you what a time to own an off licence! It's an ill wind... ).
I read a post on Facebook today which linked to a petition for partners to be allowed to attend scans and all of labour for pregnant women (I think it covered Wales - I don't know the current English rules). Some of the stories in the comments below the post were truly heartbreaking; Women having miscarriages and stillbirths alone with their husbands sat waiting in the carpark. It's hard to explain how angry I felt after reading a few posts, and how outraged I was at the sheer barbarity of the current rules. My sister is currently heavily pregnant and under these rules in Ceredigion, which has a case rate of something like 22 per 100k. Its utterly mad, the more so given that presumably as most women live with their partners, if one has it, they probably both do anyway.
I think we should shield the vulnerable as best we can, then let it go, because the reality is that otherwise its going to go anyway sooner or later, but with the vulnerable unprotected.
As someone else has posted upthread, by January (it's bleak enough in a normal year) the public will be in open rebellion everywhere (lots of them aren't far off now), and nothing the politicians can do then will allow them to regain control. All that's occuring now is just adding extra pointless misery to that which will come from the ravages of the disease when the public mood breaks.0 -
WRONNNNNNGGGG.....FAKE NEWS.....BIAS MIC.....DEEP STATE CONTROLLING MY MIC.....WHY AREN'T YOU ASKING SLEEPY JOE ANY HARD BALL QUESTIONS...RUDE......I AM THE GREATEST PRESIDENT EVER, EVERYBODY SAYS SO....
A glimpse into the mind of Trump sitting in the dress room waiting to go on.0 -
Time for the shit show....0
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Trump and Biden arrive on stage, nod to the crowd and barely acknowldege the other0
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China virus....spike, surges, gone.0
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Trump promises a Covid vaccine within weeks0
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Vaccine announced in weeks....presume pfizer.0
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Trump is wearing a darker than usual shade of creosote.0
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Word spaghetti fron Trump.0
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Q1. Trump stops talking before hitting his 2 minute limit.0
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There's a lot of evidence for the benefit of masks - especially in places like planes, or if you're getting your hair cut.Nemtynakht said:
But the deaths at the moment relate to the current system with speed limits and safety measures etc. In the 60 s and 70s there were multiple times that. Safety measures were introduced that kept the utility of the car but made it safer for everyone.Roy_G_Biv said:
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like.Nemtynakht said:For @CorrectHorseBattery
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010#data
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid?
A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths.
In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules.
Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide.
But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
The proven measures for Covid are hand washing, social distancing, and protection of the vulnerable through rigorous infection control at hospitals and care homes. The rest of the measures including masks are just playing at the edges.compared to those. They keep the utility of society, and other measures go beyond that. They make life worse for limited benefit. If NICE were doing an evidence based assessment of the measures they would find the evidence inconclusive and certainly not worth the cost to the economy, and opportunity cost of lost lives through things like extra heart attacks, undiagnosed cancers.0 -
Biden now on stat spaghetti...0
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Trump not talking over Biden (even though microphone off).
Early signal is Trump change of tactics to be far more disciplined.1 -
Both are absolutely awful and especially on such an obvious question.0
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So vaccine claim is bullshit...Trump already saying next year.0
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This is like two toddlers trying to explain nuclear fusion.0
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Trump hanging himself as usual.0
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Best moment so far from Biden with the look into the camera.0
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Trump once again states it is China's fault the virus came here and states Biden did not want him to close the border0
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I personally don't like it, it feels so forced.MikeL said:Best moment so far from Biden with the look into the camera.
0 -
Trump bites his tongue - puts his hand up to ask to speak!
Massive change.0 -
Trump is trying to sound more grown up, but he is still rehashing the same lies and conspiracies.0
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Biden emphasises shutting down until the virus is contained0
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Trump was polite. What did they give him before the debate?0
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An amazing contrast with Trump's style in the first debate. So far he's as disciplined in biting his tongue as he was at talking over Biden last time.0
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Its no where near as much fun...now it is just two idiots talking crap.williamglenn said:An amazing contrast with Trump's style in the first debate. So far he's as disciplined in biting his tongue as he was at talking over Biden last time.
1 -
I think Trump will earn brownie points for his polite and disciplined approach.
But whether that gains him any votes we'll have to see.0 -
Chalk?TimT said:Trump was polite. What did they give him before the debate?
0 -
He is off now flinging the shit.MikeL said:I think Trump will earn brownie points for his polite and disciplined approach.
But whether that gains him any votes we'll have to see.0 -
Just watched the first 20 minutes on double speed. I think it was 10 minutes well saved.0
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350 million people and your choice is one of these two idiots.Andy_JS said:Just watched the first 20 minutes on double speed. I think it was 10 minutes well saved.
1 -
I've decided to read Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas instead of watching this.
Sorry.0 -
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Biden very strong attack on opening to Q2 re foreign interference in election.0
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We are now in the shit. Russia, you got money, no you go money..0
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Both now arguing about how close the other is to Russia0
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I am going to switch off.rcs1000 said:I've decided to read Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas instead of watching this.
Sorry.
From both men, words come out in random order and doesn't really say anything.0 -
This wont change a single vote. Your corrupt, no your corrupt...0
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That's not quite true it's probably more like 200 million as you also need to be:FrancisUrquhart said:
350 million people and your choice is one of these two idiots.Andy_JS said:Just watched the first 20 minutes on double speed. I think it was 10 minutes well saved.
-a natural-born citizen of the United States;
-at least 35 years old;
-a resident in the United States for at least 14 years
and you can't previously have been:
- President for two terms0 -
ok. I've hit my tolerance limit. Switched to last week's SNL now.0
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Poor Trump, bullied by the IRS. 0
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Biden doesn't give you any confidence he has any idea about anything.HYUFD said:0 -
Betfair:
Start: Biden 1.47, Trump 3.1
Now: Biden 1.49, Trump 3.00
This discussion has been closed.