Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
I really think we are nearing a tipping point
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?
FPT: @isam the first lockdown worked, it got cases and R down.
We need the same again now the Tories have cocked it up so poorly.
Yeah, them and every other government in the world. Or we may just have a pandemic that will inevitably return every time we try anything like normal. What do you think?
Neither the German Government nor the NZ government has cocked it up, and there are others too. However The UK government is at the other end of the cock up spectrum, but to be fair they are not alone.
Don't Germany now have 10k+ confirmed cases per day, with fewer tests? Seems to have gone the same direction there as in the UK.
It would now need to go far far worse than us in this wave, to come anywhere close to how bad we have been overall however, if we are playing a numbers game.
And if you do want to play the numbers game youre not going to win. The number of cases* in the UK has been way way above the number of German cases since April. (Replace with any metric you want).
That was my point. The case numbers and death rate numbers would need to be well above the UK for a long long time to even come close.
Good News - just checked on the status of my election ballot with the King County Elections on-line Ballot Tracker.
I returned my ballot in person to KCE HQ on at noon this Tuesday. And according to the Tracker, as of 3pm today, Thursday, the ballot has been entered into the system, my signature has been checked and validated, and my ballot has been approved for counting.
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Is this one of those the beatings will continue until morale improves totalitarian things?
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
I really think we are nearing a tipping point
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?
I have no idea but are you saying the comments today about Xmas have been welcome
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
I really think we are nearing a tipping point
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
Didn't Parliament declare this period of history null and void, to be erased from the legal records? Perhaps parliament isn't as sovereign as I had once thought.
That has pained me for so long.
Were you an Instrument of Government or Humble Petition and Advice man, when it comes to your codified constitutions?
Away from Trump and Wales there are 2 Provincial elections in Canada this weekend. On Saturday the BC NDP are aiming at repeating the NZ outcome. Electing a majority Social Democratic government, after a period in minority with support from the Greens in the first snap election since 1986. They look likely to do so with c 45-50% in the polls, compared to 33-35 for the Liberals and 11-15% for the Greens. This lead has widened during the campaign. Then on Monday in Saskatchewan the originally named Saskatchewan Party (an amalgam of Cons and Libs) is aiming for a fourth consecutive term. Should be easy as they are polling between 52 and 60% compared to 33-36 for the NDP.
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
If the lockdown works, I expect a flurry of posts on welsh population density, why its ludicrous to compare wales to england and theories about natural celtic immunity.
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
I really think we are nearing a tipping point
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
Didn't Parliament declare this period of history null and void, to be erased from the legal records? Perhaps parliament isn't as sovereign as I had once thought.
That has pained me for so long.
Were you an Instrument of Government or Humble Petition and Advice man, when it comes to your codified constitutions?
I'm an Instrument of Government chap, although if I were the Lord Protector my answer maybe different.
Motes and beams. If Boris's government had done its job properly, a lot of those people wouldn't have died at all.
Utter nonsense
These are elderly parents terminal ill not related to covid
What on earth can the children do to them
Perhaps the concern was for the rest of the patients in the hospice ? And reading the article, I’m pretty sure this was an account from earlier in the pandemic, and that both guidance and provision, though still inadequate, have since improved ?
None of which is to defend what happened in this case, though.
FPT: @isam the first lockdown worked, it got cases and R down.
We need the same again now the Tories have cocked it up so poorly.
Yes it worked so well people think we apparently need another one... then another, then another... then if we aren’t all dead, the country will be skint. What a life
You are saying that the clearly expressed will of the people should be ignored and overridden by the politicians if it is for a manifestly moronic and irreparably damaging course of action?
To be fair to Drakeford, it was a Tory AM (Russell George) who raised the matter that the big supermarkets could sell things like clothes, whilst small retailers can't during lockdown
So, it was Tory pressure that propelled this policy forward.
As I keep on saying, outside of Cardiff & Swansea, there aren't that many huge Tesco Extras in Wales to buy all these jeans, T-shirts and iPads anyhow.
It is nice that pb.com is so collectively worried about the Welsh going without ready access to supermarket shirts, but -- actually -- we have managed so far without any problems.
When you visit most of Wales, you are travelling back in time to the 1960s.
And if we visit the rest of it we are travelling back to the 1930s ?
Good News - just checked on the status of my election ballot with the King County Elections on-line Ballot Tracker.
I returned my ballot in person to KCE HQ on at noon this Tuesday. And according to the Tracker, as of 3pm today, Thursday, the ballot has been entered into the system, my signature has been checked and validated, and my ballot has been approved for counting.
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
I really think we are nearing a tipping point
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?
I have no idea but are you saying the comments today about Xmas have been welcome
I don't like it but did anyone actually think anything else was going to be the case at Christmas? Best case scenario was only ever going to be something like the rule of 6 indoors for a day or so, and that may well still be the case, just merely that you're definitely not going to be having 20 folk round for Xmas dinner.
What the journalists should really be asking is why, if Leitch said yesterday that basically everything we do today only has any payback 4 weeks from now, then a 2 week (or 16 days or whatever it was) mini lockdown in the central belt was ever going to be a workable idea - because you would not know at the end of it if it was working, by their own expectations?
I think it is the blatant moving of the goalposts I don't like there. Just come out and say it now, your business is closed until further notice, your Christmas is cancelled without anything changing, your life is on hold for as long as it takes...where we don't know what "it" is.
Not "we'll do this short thing and then we'll lift it on this date honest...oh no we won't lift it even before we are at the end of it".
I've seen too many articles now saying "even if there's a vaccine, don't expect normal for a while". We're getting softened up for that one next. But the first government to come out and say that might find themselves with a mob at the gates.
Motes and beams. If Boris's government had done its job properly, a lot of those people wouldn't have died at all.
Utter nonsense
These are elderly parents terminal ill not related to covid
What on earth can the children do to them
Perhaps the concern was for the rest of the patients in the hospice ? And reading the article, I’m pretty sure this was an account from earlier in the pandemic, and that both guidance and provision, though still inadequate, have since improved ?
None of which is to defend what happened in this case, though.
Yes, that was my thought. Trying to protect staff, other patients, and other visitors. In general there's a problem with emotive topics like being reported in this way, just playing on the very real heartache but not giving proper context. It tends to play on people's emotions rather than give a real sense of whether there's a problem, what that problem is, where it's come from, and what should be done. It brings on aimless rage, and makes reasonable people unreasonable.
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid? A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
So I seem to have sold out of the market at the worst possible moment.
Ugh.
I dunno - if Trump avoids disaster tonight, there may be a temporary blip in the betting. It's priced in that he'll be terrible, and conceivably he won't be.
I still think Biden will win either way, though!
That was hope I clung to with an poorly advised trade on the primary market where I hoped a strong Bernie performance would swing things in my favour.
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
I really think we are nearing a tipping point
Huge row in Scotland with the FM threatening Xmas already
Are Sturgeon and the SNP staring down the barrel of public opinion again?
I have no idea but are you saying the comments today about Xmas have been welcome
I don't like it but did anyone actually think anything else was going to be the case at Christmas? Best case scenario was only ever going to be something like the rule of 6 indoors for a day or so, and that may well still be the case, just merely that you're definitely not going to be having 20 folk round for Xmas dinner.
What the journalists should really be asking is why, if Leitch said yesterday that basically everything we do today only has any payback 4 weeks from now, then a 2 week (or 16 days or whatever it was) mini lockdown in the central belt was ever going to be a workable idea - because you would not know at the end of it if it was working, by their own expectations?
I think it is the blatant moving of the goalposts I don't like there. Just come out and say it now, your business is closed until further notice, your Christmas is cancelled without anything changing, your life is on hold for as long as it takes...where we don't know what "it" is.
Not "we'll do this short thing and then we'll lift it on this date honest...oh no we won't lift it even before we are at the end of it".
I've seen too many articles now saying "even if there's a vaccine, don't expect normal for a while". We're getting softened up for that one next. But the first government to come out and say that might find themselves with a mob at the gates.
Again, it is interesting to see what others don't know.
To me, it seems obvious that 2 months from now, it is very very unlikely that everyone coming round each others houses will be a good idea.
Even if a 90% effective vaccine is released tomorrow, that would just give enough time to make a dent in vaccinating people. Assuming that millions of doses are already on hand.
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid? A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like. Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths. In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules. Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide. But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
FPT: @isam the first lockdown worked, it got cases and R down.
We need the same again now the Tories have cocked it up so poorly.
Yes it worked so well people think we apparently need another one... then another, then another... then if we aren’t all dead, the country will be skint. What a life
You are saying that the clearly expressed will of the people should be ignored and overridden by the politicians if it is for a manifestly moronic and irreparably damaging course of action?
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Is this one of those the beatings will continue until morale improves totalitarian things?
My favourite story of the Imperial Japanese Navy was this..
After the war, the Americans were trying to figure out the liquid oxygen torpedos the Japanese had been sending their way. Captured examples tended to explode if you sneezed at them.
The Japanese navy guys were quite helpful. Apparently, the defueling (well de-oxidisering) procedure went like this -
- strand the torpedo in shallow water - everyone retreat to the middle distance. - a spanner - the least valueable guy on torpedo handling crew.
Apparently 70% of the time this worked without a bang....
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Thems the rules in England too, from this government of yours. Only Mrs Foxy can visit her mum on the Isle of Wight, not her sister. That's how support bubbles work.
Well done Mark Drakeford on taking decisive action.
Its your inner Corbyn fanboy coming on...oh look mummy, we can only potatoes this week in Tescos...but that strawberry down, that's not to supposed to be on the shelves, its not an essential item....but I've never seen a strawberry before.
If Johnson announced a lockdown tomorrow he'd get full support from me.
You did instantly dismiss criticisms of this as "cos labour bad", despite the fact there were clear differences to the restrictions imposed last time nationwide and what is being proposed now.
We need a stricter lockdown than last time as people are not following the rules. Drakeford is right and onside with more than 60% of the population.
Do 60% know that they will only be able to buy the bare minimum at tescos?
And have to choose which child can see their terminal ill mother
It is morally bankrupt
Well said. As I say, the history books will note these things and future generations will shake their heads at the barbarity. There's no other word for it.
Completely and utterly and off the scale out of proportion.
How much more of this are we all going to stand?
One more lockdown (national, or tiered regional), I suspect, up to the new year. My gut, unreliable though it is, just has a feeling the tide will start turning on that psycological janus point. alex_ makes the point quiet persuasively I think that mentally we are not prepared for the long term. I think that is despite some comments stating that would be the case, and a surprising acceptance level so far.
I think that what will happen is that there will be enormous support for lockdowns. And absolutely no compliance.
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday = over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday = over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEms
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid? A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like. Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths. In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules. Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide. But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
But the deaths at the moment relate to the current system with speed limits and safety measures etc. In the 60 s and 70s there were multiple times that. Safety measures were introduced that kept the utility of the car but made it safer for everyone.
The proven measures for Covid are hand washing, social distancing, and protection of the vulnerable through rigorous infection control at hospitals and care homes. The rest of the measures including masks are just playing at the edges.compared to those. They keep the utility of society, and other measures go beyond that. They make life worse for limited benefit. If NICE were doing an evidence based assessment of the measures they would find the evidence inconclusive and certainly not worth the cost to the economy, and opportunity cost of lost lives through things like extra heart attacks, undiagnosed cancers.
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday = over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEms
Mr Sea Shanty, like your thoughts on the Monmouth poll today on Iowa districts 1 through 3. These are nominally Dem +1, Dem +1 and GOP +1 but the Dem candidates are up by 10, 9 and 11 according to Monmouth. Would you read this the same way as me in that this bodes badly for Trump in Iowa?
Can see and appreciate all the arguments on this one. From CHB lockdown hard now. To Contrarian don't. And everything in between . All make logical sense in their own way. Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices. We will only have an inkling of a clue who was right several years from now. It is worth arguing about, certainly, but perhaps not breaking friends about.
Can see and appreciate all the arguments on this one. From CHB lockdown hard now. To Contrarian don't. And everything in between . All make logical sense in their own way. Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices. We will only have an inkling of a clue several years from now.
Not sure we will even then. Pandemics are about the most complex of adaptive systems you'll encounter. There is simply a limit to what we can actually know about them, and while elements of them will be predictable, the whole will through up emergent properties that are simply unknowable ahead of time, and not susceptible to reductionist analysis after the event.
PS This will not, of course, stop some from claiming to have the right answer at any point in the process. However, anyone who speaks with certainty is delusional.
Can see and appreciate all the arguments on this one. From CHB lockdown hard now. To Contrarian don't. And everything in between . All make logical sense in their own way. Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices. We will only have an inkling of a clue several years from now.
Not sure we will even then. Pandemics are about the most complex of adaptive systems you'll encounter. There is simply a limit to what we can actually know about them, and while elements of them will be predictable, the whole will through up emergent properties that are simply unknowable ahead of time, and not susceptible to reductionist analysis after the event.
PS This will not, of course, stop some from claiming to have the right answer at any point in the process. However, anyone who speaks with certainty is delusional.
Yes. And this is not a left right issue. Nor an ethical one. No matter how much interested parties try to make it so. It is a visceral, instinctive issue. Which is why there are strange bedfellows abounding.
So I seem to have sold out of the market at the worst possible moment.
Ugh.
I dunno - if Trump avoids disaster tonight, there may be a temporary blip in the betting. It's priced in that he'll be terrible, and conceivably he won't be.
I still think Biden will win either way, though!
The most predictable thing about this debate is that Trump will throw a hissy fit after his mike is cut off. So, avoiding what would be a disaster for any other politician is going to pretty hard.
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday = over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEms
Yes. Speaking just for my own bailiwick, fact that Seattle return rate is running ahead of rest of King Co AND ahead of WA State as a whole, tells me that Democrats in particular are turning out big time.
Republicans and Independents are also turning out in record numbers, but (based on Seattle) not at same rate as Democrats. Not yet, anyway.
Am doing a deeper dive into return numbers tonight, in search of partisan and demographic trends re: early ballot returns.
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday = over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEms
Mr Sea Shanty, like your thoughts on the Monmouth poll today on Iowa districts 1 through 3. These are nominally Dem +1, Dem +1 and GOP +1 but the Dem candidates are up by 10, 9 and 11 according to Monmouth. Would you read this the same way as me in that this bodes badly for Trump in Iowa?
There are all districts with (what passes in Iowa as) some urban/suburban turf, but mostly rural, and just about all ag-dependent one way or another.
In these kind of districts, would expect Democrats for Congress and other offices, in competitive races, to run somewhat AHEAD of Biden. Indeed, may be way for some voters to resolve their ambivalence re: Trumpsky?
So am cautious that these excellent numbers for Hawkeye State congressional Dems to translate directly into votes for Uncle Joe. On the other hand, it is NOT good news for Trumpsky and fellow Putinists.
Still an hour before WA Secretary of State reports statewide ballot returns for today.
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday = over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
SeaShanty - is your reading the same as wine that the very high level of early voting favours Joe and the DEms
Mr Sea Shanty, like your thoughts on the Monmouth poll today on Iowa districts 1 through 3. These are nominally Dem +1, Dem +1 and GOP +1 but the Dem candidates are up by 10, 9 and 11 according to Monmouth. Would you read this the same way as me in that this bodes badly for Trump in Iowa?
There are all districts with (what passes in Iowa as) some urban/suburban turf, but mostly rural, and just about all ag-dependent one way or another.
In these kind of districts, would expect Democrats for Congress and other offices, in competitive races, to run somewhat AHEAD of Biden. Indeed, may be way for some voters to resolve their ambivalence re: Trumpsky?
So am cautious that these excellent numbers for Hawkeye State congressional Dems to translate directly into votes for Uncle Joe. On the other hand, it is NOT good news for Trumpsky and fellow Putinists.
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid? A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like. Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths. In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules. Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide. But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
The current Welsh option has to be up there as pretty close to banning all motor transport for a fortnight. Its likely to have a similar effect on the numbers - transmission will probably fall, but as the fundamental state of play won't have changed at the end of it, it won't be long before the numbers are back where they are now again - very much like banning driving for a fortnight would cut road deaths for a couple of weeks, but won't make a lot of difference in the long run.
The fundamental problem with lockdowns is the total absence of a coherent endgame. Unless there is some way out of this which doesn't involve everyone getting the disease, lockdowns are pointless but expensive can kicking (rather like the endless Brexit extensions - they only postponed exactly the same issues as everyone started with).
There isn't a silver bullet on the horizon. A vaccine isn't going to be enough (you can tell this from the way that governments are starting to talk about this going on all next year).
At some point lockdowns will stop working entirely, if that hasn't already happened. Based on what's happened in say Boulton over the summer, where various levels lockdown have made almost no difference to case numbers, it's quite possible that point has already pretty much been reached.
People have had enough (I'm honest, I'm one of them), and aren't taking a blind bit of notice of the rules if they even know what they are, so the only practical outworking of the restrictions is the ruination of the businesses forced to close (mind you what a time to own an off licence! It's an ill wind... ).
I read a post on Facebook today which linked to a petition for partners to be allowed to attend scans and all of labour for pregnant women (I think it covered Wales - I don't know the current English rules). Some of the stories in the comments below the post were truly heartbreaking; Women having miscarriages and stillbirths alone with their husbands sat waiting in the carpark. It's hard to explain how angry I felt after reading a few posts, and how outraged I was at the sheer barbarity of the current rules. My sister is currently heavily pregnant and under these rules in Ceredigion, which has a case rate of something like 22 per 100k. Its utterly mad, the more so given that presumably as most women live with their partners, if one has it, they probably both do anyway.
I think we should shield the vulnerable as best we can, then let it go, because the reality is that otherwise its going to go anyway sooner or later, but with the vulnerable unprotected.
As someone else has posted upthread, by January (it's bleak enough in a normal year) the public will be in open rebellion everywhere (lots of them aren't far off now), and nothing the politicians can do then will allow them to regain control. All that's occuring now is just adding extra pointless misery to that which will come from the ravages of the disease when the public mood breaks.
WRONNNNNNGGGG.....FAKE NEWS.....BIAS MIC.....DEEP STATE CONTROLLING MY MIC.....WHY AREN'T YOU ASKING SLEEPY JOE ANY HARD BALL QUESTIONS...RUDE......I AM THE GREATEST PRESIDENT EVER, EVERYBODY SAYS SO....
A glimpse into the mind of Trump sitting in the dress room waiting to go on.
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid? A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
Depends what you mean by "lockdown". Driving is highly regulated. There's a huge list of rules, you have to get your car checked for roadworthiness each year, and you aren't allowed to go whatever speed you like. In fact, the speed you're allowed to go depends on not just where you are, but what conditions are like. Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths. In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules. Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide. But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
But the deaths at the moment relate to the current system with speed limits and safety measures etc. In the 60 s and 70s there were multiple times that. Safety measures were introduced that kept the utility of the car but made it safer for everyone.
The proven measures for Covid are hand washing, social distancing, and protection of the vulnerable through rigorous infection control at hospitals and care homes. The rest of the measures including masks are just playing at the edges.compared to those. They keep the utility of society, and other measures go beyond that. They make life worse for limited benefit. If NICE were doing an evidence based assessment of the measures they would find the evidence inconclusive and certainly not worth the cost to the economy, and opportunity cost of lost lives through things like extra heart attacks, undiagnosed cancers.
There's a lot of evidence for the benefit of masks - especially in places like planes, or if you're getting your hair cut.
Comments
I returned my ballot in person to KCE HQ on at noon this Tuesday. And according to the Tracker, as of 3pm today, Thursday, the ballot has been entered into the system, my signature has been checked and validated, and my ballot has been approved for counting.
Not too shabby for govt work!
On Saturday the BC NDP are aiming at repeating the NZ outcome. Electing a majority Social Democratic government, after a period in minority with support from the Greens in the first snap election since 1986. They look likely to do so with c 45-50% in the polls, compared to 33-35 for the Liberals and 11-15% for the Greens. This lead has widened during the campaign.
Then on Monday in Saskatchewan the originally named Saskatchewan Party (an amalgam of Cons and Libs) is aiming for a fourth consecutive term. Should be easy as they are polling between 52 and 60% compared to 33-36 for the NDP.
And reading the article, I’m pretty sure this was an account from earlier in the pandemic, and that both guidance and provision, though still inadequate, have since improved ?
None of which is to defend what happened in this case, though.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1319325307225202695
What the journalists should really be asking is why, if Leitch said yesterday that basically everything we do today only has any payback 4 weeks from now, then a 2 week (or 16 days or whatever it was) mini lockdown in the central belt was ever going to be a workable idea - because you would not know at the end of it if it was working, by their own expectations?
I think it is the blatant moving of the goalposts I don't like there. Just come out and say it now, your business is closed until further notice, your Christmas is cancelled without anything changing, your life is on hold for as long as it takes...where we don't know what "it" is.
Not "we'll do this short thing and then we'll lift it on this date honest...oh no we won't lift it even before we are at the end of it".
I've seen too many articles now saying "even if there's a vaccine, don't expect normal for a while". We're getting softened up for that one next. But the first government to come out and say that might find themselves with a mob at the gates.
In general there's a problem with emotive topics like being reported in this way, just playing on the very real heartache but not giving proper context. It tends to play on people's emotions rather than give a real sense of whether there's a problem, what that problem is, where it's come from, and what should be done.
It brings on aimless rage, and makes reasonable people unreasonable.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010#data
It’s a bit out of date but there are lots of causes of death which could be prevented if we completely stopped doing stuff
If we banned all motor transport there would be a significant drop in vehicle related deaths. A significant number of people die of medical complications - perhaps we should ban all medical procedures. Some people are electrocuted - are you proposing that we go off grid?
A small number of women die in childbirth - should we prevent all births? Oh wait we’ve already cancelled all medical procedures above.
Locking down the economy was supposed to be a temporary measure to allow NHS capacity to increase, and to allow time to assess the impact. Before the initial lockdown, and part of the delay was the advice that people only have a certain capacity for being locked down, and the scientists didn’t want to start it too soon
It didn't happen.
Not even pretending.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1319400025902952448?s=20
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/522346-north-carolina-man-arrested-with-van-full-of-guns-and-explosives-had-plans-to
To me, it seems obvious that 2 months from now, it is very very unlikely that everyone coming round each others houses will be a good idea.
Even if a 90% effective vaccine is released tomorrow, that would just give enough time to make a dent in vaccinating people. Assuming that millions of doses are already on hand.
Similarly safety regulations on medical procedures, retail and industrial electrical goods are there to minimise deaths.
In all of the above cases, we find a balance. Nobody is proposing banning all economic activity, and nor is anybody with the slightest shred of decency advocating just letting it rip.
So now that we've established where we are, somewhere between those two end members, we need to find the right place. And like the speed limit, it's perfectly sensible to suggest that as conditions change, so should the rules.
Now, are the kinds of lockdowns experienced and/or proposed by some people going too far one way? Is the loosening proposed by others going too far the other way? Perhaps, you can make your own mind up. In truth, I can see both sides of the argument and I'm not ready to commit. I'm glad I don't have to decide.
But please don't go around pretending that temporary lockdowns are the same as "banning all motor transport". That's attacking a straw man and doesn't help convince persuadables like me.
Poor effort. Something in the water tonight
That makes no sense.
After the war, the Americans were trying to figure out the liquid oxygen torpedos the Japanese had been sending their way. Captured examples tended to explode if you sneezed at them.
The Japanese navy guys were quite helpful. Apparently, the defueling (well de-oxidisering) procedure went like this -
- strand the torpedo in shallow water
- everyone retreat to the middle distance.
- a spanner
- the least valueable guy on torpedo handling crew.
Apparently 70% of the time this worked without a bang....
However, sources at King Co Elections say cumulative returns for state's largest county as of Thursday
= over 500k (36% of total active voter registration)
NOTE this return rate compares with just 15% returned at this point (EDay -12) four years ago.
The proven measures for Covid are hand washing, social distancing, and protection of the vulnerable through rigorous infection control at hospitals and care homes. The rest of the measures including masks are just playing at the edges.compared to those. They keep the utility of society, and other measures go beyond that. They make life worse for limited benefit. If NICE were doing an evidence based assessment of the measures they would find the evidence inconclusive and certainly not worth the cost to the economy, and opportunity cost of lost lives through things like extra heart attacks, undiagnosed cancers.
All make logical sense in their own way.
Conclusion. Pandemics are shit and there are no good choices.
We will only have an inkling of a clue who was right several years from now.
It is worth arguing about, certainly, but perhaps not breaking friends about.
PS This will not, of course, stop some from claiming to have the right answer at any point in the process. However, anyone who speaks with certainty is delusional.
It is a visceral, instinctive issue. Which is why there are strange bedfellows abounding.
Republicans and Independents are also turning out in record numbers, but (based on Seattle) not at same rate as Democrats. Not yet, anyway.
Am doing a deeper dive into return numbers tonight, in search of partisan and demographic trends re: early ballot returns.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1319393328505339904
In these kind of districts, would expect Democrats for Congress and other offices, in competitive races, to run somewhat AHEAD of Biden. Indeed, may be way for some voters to resolve their ambivalence re: Trumpsky?
So am cautious that these excellent numbers for Hawkeye State congressional Dems to translate directly into votes for Uncle Joe. On the other hand, it is NOT good news for Trumpsky and fellow Putinists.
Its likely to have a similar effect on the numbers - transmission will probably fall, but as the fundamental state of play won't have changed at the end of it, it won't be long before the numbers are back where they are now again - very much like banning driving for a fortnight would cut road deaths for a couple of weeks, but won't make a lot of difference in the long run.
The fundamental problem with lockdowns is the total absence of a coherent endgame.
Unless there is some way out of this which doesn't involve everyone getting the disease, lockdowns are pointless but expensive can kicking (rather like the endless Brexit extensions - they only postponed exactly the same issues as everyone started with).
There isn't a silver bullet on the horizon. A vaccine isn't going to be enough (you can tell this from the way that governments are starting to talk about this going on all next year).
At some point lockdowns will stop working entirely, if that hasn't already happened. Based on what's happened in say Boulton over the summer, where various levels lockdown have made almost no difference to case numbers, it's quite possible that point has already pretty much been reached.
People have had enough (I'm honest, I'm one of them), and aren't taking a blind bit of notice of the rules if they even know what they are, so the only practical outworking of the restrictions is the ruination of the businesses forced to close (mind you what a time to own an off licence! It's an ill wind... ).
I read a post on Facebook today which linked to a petition for partners to be allowed to attend scans and all of labour for pregnant women (I think it covered Wales - I don't know the current English rules). Some of the stories in the comments below the post were truly heartbreaking; Women having miscarriages and stillbirths alone with their husbands sat waiting in the carpark. It's hard to explain how angry I felt after reading a few posts, and how outraged I was at the sheer barbarity of the current rules. My sister is currently heavily pregnant and under these rules in Ceredigion, which has a case rate of something like 22 per 100k. Its utterly mad, the more so given that presumably as most women live with their partners, if one has it, they probably both do anyway.
I think we should shield the vulnerable as best we can, then let it go, because the reality is that otherwise its going to go anyway sooner or later, but with the vulnerable unprotected.
As someone else has posted upthread, by January (it's bleak enough in a normal year) the public will be in open rebellion everywhere (lots of them aren't far off now), and nothing the politicians can do then will allow them to regain control. All that's occuring now is just adding extra pointless misery to that which will come from the ravages of the disease when the public mood breaks.
A glimpse into the mind of Trump sitting in the dress room waiting to go on.
Early signal is Trump change of tactics to be far more disciplined.
Massive change.
But whether that gains him any votes we'll have to see.
Sorry.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1319449813499277312
From both men, words come out in random order and doesn't really say anything.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1319451013695168512?s=20
-a natural-born citizen of the United States;
-at least 35 years old;
-a resident in the United States for at least 14 years
and you can't previously have been:
- President for two terms
Start: Biden 1.47, Trump 3.1
Now: Biden 1.49, Trump 3.0