If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I do take your point about personal responsibility, though I think you've taken it a mite too far in this case, particularly given the criminality and lies from those pushing it on to others.IshmaelZ said:
Ah ok sorry. But you were replying to someone, replying to me.kle4 said:
That wasn't a criticism of you, it was a criticism of Charles. Since as you say the museum point was from another poster why did you think it was directed at you? Calm the f*ck down.IshmaelZ said:
What a depressingly stupid post. I have already said the Sacklers were complete shits, museums was a bonkers irrelevance from another poster altogether, professionals are not meant to accept without question statements made about the subject-matter of their professional expertise, and what is an omlette?kle4 said:
Ah, so you don't support museums then? Can't make an omlette without deliberately lying about the destructive effects of your drugs.rcs1000 said:
They bribed doctors to prescribe people opioids.IshmaelZ said:
It takes several million to tango, though. The Sacklers seem pretty unpleasant people, but they forced nobody at gunpoint to prescribe or take this stuff, and if them why not go after Smith and Wesson, and Diageo?TimT said:
The estimated costs of dealing with the opiate addiction crisis in the US, primarily created by the Sacklers, runs into the $100s billions, not 8Alistair said:
Absolutely incredible.Charles said:
Question: is that $8.3bn better going to the US taxpayer or to the arts? (Sackler Library, Sackler Gallery etc)kle4 said:You know how often companies pay huge fines without admitting wrongdoing (which of course is the reason they pay the fine), well I see that Purdue, the makers of OxyContin, are paying $8.3bn and pleading guilty to at least some criminal charges.
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
You have outdone yourself to a degree that I did not think possible.
Just bravo.
This is about personal responsibility, though. It's like those whiny students at Cambridge who think that global warming is caused 100% by investments in Shell and 0% by their insistence on their own God given right to have the oil fired central heating on at all times.0 -
Not if it’s Harris, probably.Benpointer said:
Interesting all these people are wearing masks. Trump supporters... or not?Alistair said:
The real question is what’s happening in the myriad small Republican counties in Texas.0 -
On the QT, maybe she was not wrong, but don't tell anyone I thought that.kle4 said:
Exactly, milking it. It's one of the few occasions I'd say using twitter to demand an apology would have been more appropriate. Not that I buy her apology frankly.Mexicanpete said:
He wrote her a letter demanding an apology.kle4 said:
Such labels may not generally be helpful for more than making people better about themselves, but scum is pretty mild as far as internet talk goes, and only her position and the context of parliamentary debate made it particularly notable, not that the target hasn't sought to milk it.Mexicanpete said:
Careful! You know where that sort of sharp tongue got Angela Rayner.bigjohnowls said:
Eat out to help out has been replaced by the new scheme for poorer kids. Don't eat to help outStuartinromford said:
Anyway, a similar scheme ("Healthy Start") already exists for preschoolers in needy families (though you have to wonder how far £3.10 a week goes).alex_ said:
There's a difference though, isn't there? Food vouchers in this case would be a bonus. For asylum seekers it's their only way to obtain food because they're not allowed to earn money.Malmesbury said:
Vouchers have already been used in the past - for asylum seekers IIRC. Challenged and got rid of as inhumane....alex_ said:
How about introducing food vouchers - but only to be spent on health food. Would probably pay for itself in the long term.FrancisUrquhart said:I guarantee that if this free holiday meals is extended while we have Covid, it will be with us for the next 10-15 years and probably expanded to basically everybody.
After covid, the reason will be high unemployment, then it will another reason and then it won't cost much more just to give to every kid
Now you might say it is a good idea anyway, but it is dishonest to claim it will just be for another couple of holidays.
We still have most of the Brown freebies despite supposed of nearly 10 years of austerity.
Turning to the matter in hand, there's obviously a dollop of partisan politics in this, and forcing the consciences of Conservative backbenchers to shrivel a bit more. Most of them didn't run for public office to keep food away from children. But there are two things which do look anomalous about the current situation;
The idea that the taxpayer should pick up the tab for school meals in termtime for children in needy families is pretty much accepted. That covers 39 weeks a year- what are families meant to do for the other 13? Budgeting to deal with that degree of lumpiness while on benefits doesn't seem right.
The government has just spent lots (I've seen £500 million quoted) on Eat Out to Help Out. Subsidising nice meals out then claiming that we can't afford to be more generous to kids on FSM can be justified, but it's awfully hard work.
#Toryscum0 -
Double figure Tory lead nailed onCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1319033184936468482
Lol what a load of nonsense1 -
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Its possible that EOTHO is responsible for R being above 1 throughout Europe.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had not had Eat Out to Help Out, I hypothesise R would be below 1
Alternatively something else happens throughout Europe in the autumn.0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1319033184936468482
Lol what a load of nonsense
Is the Express lining its readers up to overlook a UK cave-in?0 -
Watching Obama's speech in Philadelphia. America is very unlucky to have the 22nd Amendment
That said, he seems to be struggling a little iwth the presumably near-empty crowd.0 -
If only MR was as effective doing his day job, Man U would be top of the leavuekle4 said:
Effective front page. Bold headline, creative use of the names, strong picture choice.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke0 -
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake.0 -
This "walk away" was never a walk away and instead is theatre for capitulations coming0
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Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.0 -
EOTHO was in August. It's effect on R now is zero.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had not had Eat Out to Help Out, I hypothesise R would be below 1
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Totally agree, the US system is f*cked upIshmaelZ said:
And what's behind *that* is a medical system where treatment is dictated not by need but by the co-pay on the patient's insurance, and what the claims handler will authorise. Scapegoating is still scapegoating, even when the scapegoat had it coming in spades redoubled.MrEd said:
Re the opioids stuff, I attended a meeting with the guys who ran one of the largest US pharma trade shows on pain relief. They looked fairly sheepish but one thing they did mention was that prescribing opioids was a hell of a lot cheaper than physio or other pain relief methods hence why doctors went with opioidskle4 said:
That wasn't a criticism of you, it was a criticism of Charles. Since as you say the museum point was from another poster why did you think it was directed at you? Calm the f*ck down.IshmaelZ said:
What a depressingly stupid post. I have already said the Sacklers were complete shits, museums was a bonkers irrelevance from another poster altogether, professionals are not meant to accept without question statements made about the subject-matter of their professional expertise, and what is an omlette?kle4 said:
Ah, so you don't support museums then? Can't make an omlette without deliberately lying about the destructive effects of your drugs.rcs1000 said:
They bribed doctors to prescribe people opioids.IshmaelZ said:
It takes several million to tango, though. The Sacklers seem pretty unpleasant people, but they forced nobody at gunpoint to prescribe or take this stuff, and if them why not go after Smith and Wesson, and Diageo?TimT said:
The estimated costs of dealing with the opiate addiction crisis in the US, primarily created by the Sacklers, runs into the $100s billions, not 8Alistair said:
Absolutely incredible.Charles said:
Question: is that $8.3bn better going to the US taxpayer or to the arts? (Sackler Library, Sackler Gallery etc)kle4 said:You know how often companies pay huge fines without admitting wrongdoing (which of course is the reason they pay the fine), well I see that Purdue, the makers of OxyContin, are paying $8.3bn and pleading guilty to at least some criminal charges.
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
You have outdone yourself to a degree that I did not think possible.
Just bravo.0 -
This may be relevant?Benpointer said:
Ok. I am not a Twitter expert, which is why I appreciate the twitter posts on here.Roy_G_Biv said:
You mean if I want to read random, disconnected tweets without any discussion being added to them, I don't have to wait... I can just go there?Benpointer said:
Er... have you tried Twitter?Roy_G_Biv said:Does anyone know of a website where I can look at tweets? I appreciate the fine work Carlotta is doing, but for those times she's not around, I'm wondering how I can possibly see what people are tweeting.
https://twitter.com/home
This is a brave new world.
But on twitter.com you can search for users or hashtags or follow users (I think you'll need to register on Twitter for that).
If you are looking for a website that sorts out only the tweets you are interested in I think you may be unlucky. PB.com is the closest I've found to that.
https://i.imgur.com/F636xiP.gif0 -
Hey now, he scored the winner yesterday. Though for a middling striker scoring national policy wins (tbd) might be more fulfilling.MrEd said:
If only MR was as effective doing his day job, Man U would be top of the leavuekle4 said:
Effective front page. Bold headline, creative use of the names, strong picture choice.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke
I hope he picks his targets well.0 -
Horse has this weird obsession about the scheme and ignores that the rise in cases has come with schools returning and universities opening again. Restaurants and pubs have had a negligible effect on the overall R.LostPassword said:
EOTHO was in August. It's effect on R now is zero.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had not had Eat Out to Help Out, I hypothesise R would be below 1
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It's probably just froth, MoE and Comedy Results' weighting. Most of the Red Wall still don't know who Keith Stammer is yet anyway. His day will come!CorrectHorseBattery said:That polling is certainly disappointing, I would want to see Keir's leadership ratings
1 -
Wisconsin just reported its highest single day Covid death count:
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/522162-wisconsin-reports-highest-single-day-coronavirus-death
I think claims Trump might win Wisconsin are utterly implausible.0 -
Yeah right. As opposed to being totally ineffectual and irrelevant where the opposition to the Government is epitomised by a footballer and not the Leader of the Opposition?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke
My dog could do a better job or calling Johnson to account than Starmer1 -
I am here you know!MaxPB said:
Horse has this weird obsession about the scheme and ignores that the rise in cases has come with schools returning and universities opening again. Restaurants and pubs have had a negligible effect on the overall R.LostPassword said:
EOTHO was in August. It's effect on R now is zero.CorrectHorseBattery said:If we had not had Eat Out to Help Out, I hypothesise R would be below 1
0 -
Well, they've started their Champions League group with a win thanks to a Rashford winner. What did you do this week?MrEd said:
If only MR was as effective doing his day job, Man U would be top of the leavuekle4 said:
Effective front page. Bold headline, creative use of the names, strong picture choice.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke0 -
Our own Trump fan hates Starmer, my goodness really?MrEd said:
Yeah right. As opposed to being totally ineffectual and irrelevant where the opposition to the Government is epitomised by a footballer and not the Leader of the Opposition?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke
My dog could do a better job or calling Johnson to account than Starmer1 -
I see what you did there. You got that one in before HYUFD and added the caveats to shoot his fox.Pulpstar said:Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.2 -
What's his policy on electoral reform? I'd like to consider if he's worth a shot.MrEd said:
My dog could do a better job or calling Johnson to account than StarmerCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke
1 -
That's entirely possible.Benpointer said:What if: the pollsters have overreacted to underestimating Trump in 2016?
If they have over-tweaked their models we might not see a Biden landslide coming.1 -
If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again0
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0
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If he does lose Trump's going to have so many excuses isn't he? Covid, being outspent, Mitt Romney and other neverTrumpers, the media (which in that curious way of media, is utterly without consequence prior to an election, but vital after it).0
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The best thing for the Dems electorally would be seen to be prevented from carrying out their agenda by an obstructive Supreme Court.Nigelb said:
Wait ‘til she issues her first couple of judgments, if confirmed.MaxPB said:
The Dems keep falling into the same trap of saying "worst thing ever in history" and then whatever it is just turns out to be merely rubbish and people think "well it's not as bad as we were being told".williamglenn said:Interesting that Amy Coney Barrett is winning over Democrats.
https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/21/supreme-court-hearings-barrett-confirmation-polling/
She did a great job of not answering a single tough question during the hearings - and Democrats kept it low key as they knew anything else would backfire.
I predict she’ll be every bit as bad as forecast.0 -
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1319041059213762562
Let's be honest, if it was the other way around Aaron would have tweeted all day.
Angela should apologise or resign if she won't0 -
Nah, just more free stuff from Sunak. Sunak, the gift that keeps on giving.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1319038404693286915
Another U-turn!
Johnson, too busy grandstanding his lap of honour, having done over the finances of the burghers of Greater Manchester and the poorest school children, whilst behind his back Sunak is once again giving away free stuff. Boris should be told.0 -
Yeah, but there's literally nothing worse than being stuck in a room with people on cocaine.Foxy said:
I would say the difference is the level of addiction. Opiods are physically addictive, cocaine psychologically but not physically.IshmaelZ said:
Good, but that story makes my point for me.Foxy said:
Pill Mill prescibers have been sentenced to long prison terms, such as...IshmaelZ said:
Yes, sure, the guys were complete shits. OTOH doctors are assumed to have a basic level of integrity, intelligence and medical knowledge, and if someone tried to sell me a non-addictive opioid I would suggest we moved straight on to negotiating over the bridge sale. Even if I didn't know the history of heroin. Plus I popped my way through 100 oxycontin last year (legitimate prescription) and whatever anyone tells you, it is pretty bloody obvious when you start creeping from purely analgesic to partly recreational use. The Sacklers were tangoing but not on their own, any more than it is purely a handful of evil overlords at BP and RDS who are responsible for global warming.Foxy said:
Misleading push marketing. This book covers the tragedy of Americas drug epidemic. Currently killing as many as guns and motor vehicles combined.IshmaelZ said:
It takes several million to tango, though. The Sacklers seem pretty unpleasant people, but they forced nobody at gunpoint to prescribe or take this stuff, and if them why not go after Smith and Wesson, and Diageo?TimT said:
The estimated costs of dealing with the opiate addiction crisis in the US, primarily created by the Sacklers, runs into the $100s billions, not 8Alistair said:
Absolutely incredible.Charles said:
Question: is that $8.3bn better going to the US taxpayer or to the arts? (Sackler Library, Sackler Gallery etc)kle4 said:You know how often companies pay huge fines without admitting wrongdoing (which of course is the reason they pay the fine), well I see that Purdue, the makers of OxyContin, are paying $8.3bn and pleading guilty to at least some criminal charges.
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
You have outdone yourself to a degree that I did not think possible.
Just bravo.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/pill-mill-doctors-prosecuted-amid-opioid-epidemic
"Rovero’s son, Joey, died after mixing alcohol, Xanax, and oxycodone. He bought the pills after driving 360 miles with his fraternity brothers from Arizona State University, where he was a semester away from graduation in 2009."
...
"“We’ve reached an extreme level of closure. We feel very blessed,” Rovero told Healthline. “I talk to parents all over the country who never get a drop of closure.”"
What a thing to feel "blessed" about. This is like all the shits in this country who think it is clever to take cocaine, absolving their consciences with a class action against the Medellin cartel.
The best argument against drug legalisation is a five minute "conversation" with a coke-head.
At least people who've taken opiates are quiet.1 -
I'm actually a massive supporter of the Democrats, not to mention the French national team. I don't know why people keep misunderstanding my moniker...Mexicanpete said:
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake.2 -
Lol - Iowans seem to be learning:
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319028184394928129?s=201 -
Just how blue are you? Are we talking #0000ff blue?BluestBlue said:
I'm actually a massive supporter of the Democrats, not to mention the French national team. I don't know why people keep misunderstanding my moniker...Mexicanpete said:
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake. 1 -
She has, hasn't she (barely)? You're right how he would have reacted, how both would have reacted, had it been the other way round, but despite that I wouldn't argue she should resign even if she hadn't apologised. She was officially rebuked at the time, and her moment of ill discipline has handed her opponents a distraction and outrage of their own to exploit from the thing she wanted to talk about, that seems proportionate punishment.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1319041059213762562
Let's be honest, if it was the other way around Aaron would have tweeted all day.
Angela should apologise or resign if she won't
That's another good practical reason to, if not remain civil, remain parliamentary. It doesn't help to not do so.1 -
Re Texas: Perhaps voter suppression follows something like the Laffer curve, and the GOP have gone beyond the inflection point into a part of the curve where it's actively disadvantageous for them. It would be rather nice if that is the case!0
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Why? Maybe it was just satire, you know like, letter boxes, bank robbers and water melon smiles.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1319041059213762562
Let's be honest, if it was the other way around Aaron would have tweeted all day.
Angela should apologise or resign if she won't0 -
Whilst that's true, 5 counties, Harris County (Houston), Dallas County (Dallas), Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Bexar County (San Antonio), and Travis County (Austin), make up over 40% of the population of Texas.Nigelb said:
Not if it’s Harris, probably.Benpointer said:
Interesting all these people are wearing masks. Trump supporters... or not?Alistair said:
The real question is what’s happening in the myriad small Republican counties in Texas.0 -
A fair point. Go Joe!BluestBlue said:
I'm actually a massive supporter of the Democrats, not to mention the French national team. I don't know why people keep misunderstanding my moniker...Mexicanpete said:
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake.0 -
Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.0
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I've found an image of him online here, so we can judgeRobD said:
Just how blue are you? Are we talking #0000ff blue?BluestBlue said:
I'm actually a massive supporter of the Democrats, not to mention the French national team. I don't know why people keep misunderstanding my moniker...Mexicanpete said:
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake.
Blue Man Group0 -
Let's just be thankful for it, because we'd be utterly effed if the mortality rate was, say, 10%.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
2 -
Ah, that explains his 24/7 presence.kle4 said:
I've found an image of him online here, so we can judgeRobD said:
Just how blue are you? Are we talking #0000ff blue?BluestBlue said:
I'm actually a massive supporter of the Democrats, not to mention the French national team. I don't know why people keep misunderstanding my moniker...Mexicanpete said:
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake.
Blue Man Group 0 -
Very much this.rcs1000 said:
Yeah, but there's literally nothing worse than being stuck in a room with people on cocaine.Foxy said:
I would say the difference is the level of addiction. Opiods are physically addictive, cocaine psychologically but not physically.IshmaelZ said:
Good, but that story makes my point for me.Foxy said:
Pill Mill prescibers have been sentenced to long prison terms, such as...IshmaelZ said:
Yes, sure, the guys were complete shits. OTOH doctors are assumed to have a basic level of integrity, intelligence and medical knowledge, and if someone tried to sell me a non-addictive opioid I would suggest we moved straight on to negotiating over the bridge sale. Even if I didn't know the history of heroin. Plus I popped my way through 100 oxycontin last year (legitimate prescription) and whatever anyone tells you, it is pretty bloody obvious when you start creeping from purely analgesic to partly recreational use. The Sacklers were tangoing but not on their own, any more than it is purely a handful of evil overlords at BP and RDS who are responsible for global warming.Foxy said:
Misleading push marketing. This book covers the tragedy of Americas drug epidemic. Currently killing as many as guns and motor vehicles combined.IshmaelZ said:
It takes several million to tango, though. The Sacklers seem pretty unpleasant people, but they forced nobody at gunpoint to prescribe or take this stuff, and if them why not go after Smith and Wesson, and Diageo?TimT said:
The estimated costs of dealing with the opiate addiction crisis in the US, primarily created by the Sacklers, runs into the $100s billions, not 8Alistair said:
Absolutely incredible.Charles said:
Question: is that $8.3bn better going to the US taxpayer or to the arts? (Sackler Library, Sackler Gallery etc)kle4 said:You know how often companies pay huge fines without admitting wrongdoing (which of course is the reason they pay the fine), well I see that Purdue, the makers of OxyContin, are paying $8.3bn and pleading guilty to at least some criminal charges.
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
You have outdone yourself to a degree that I did not think possible.
Just bravo.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/pill-mill-doctors-prosecuted-amid-opioid-epidemic
"Rovero’s son, Joey, died after mixing alcohol, Xanax, and oxycodone. He bought the pills after driving 360 miles with his fraternity brothers from Arizona State University, where he was a semester away from graduation in 2009."
...
"“We’ve reached an extreme level of closure. We feel very blessed,” Rovero told Healthline. “I talk to parents all over the country who never get a drop of closure.”"
What a thing to feel "blessed" about. This is like all the shits in this country who think it is clever to take cocaine, absolving their consciences with a class action against the Medellin cartel.
The best argument against drug legalisation is a five minute "conversation" with a coke-head.
At least people who've taken opiates are quiet.0 -
There were also a number of advocacy groups that pretended to be "grass roots" which campaigned for a "pain free America" and for the loosening of rules about prescrbing opiates.MrEd said:
Re the opioids stuff, I attended a meeting with the guys who ran one of the largest US pharma trade shows on pain relief. They looked fairly sheepish but one thing they did mention was that prescribing opioids was a hell of a lot cheaper than physio or other pain relief methods hence why doctors went with opioidskle4 said:
That wasn't a criticism of you, it was a criticism of Charles. Since as you say the museum point was from another poster why did you think it was directed at you? Calm the f*ck down.IshmaelZ said:
What a depressingly stupid post. I have already said the Sacklers were complete shits, museums was a bonkers irrelevance from another poster altogether, professionals are not meant to accept without question statements made about the subject-matter of their professional expertise, and what is an omlette?kle4 said:
Ah, so you don't support museums then? Can't make an omlette without deliberately lying about the destructive effects of your drugs.rcs1000 said:
They bribed doctors to prescribe people opioids.IshmaelZ said:
It takes several million to tango, though. The Sacklers seem pretty unpleasant people, but they forced nobody at gunpoint to prescribe or take this stuff, and if them why not go after Smith and Wesson, and Diageo?TimT said:
The estimated costs of dealing with the opiate addiction crisis in the US, primarily created by the Sacklers, runs into the $100s billions, not 8Alistair said:
Absolutely incredible.Charles said:
Question: is that $8.3bn better going to the US taxpayer or to the arts? (Sackler Library, Sackler Gallery etc)kle4 said:You know how often companies pay huge fines without admitting wrongdoing (which of course is the reason they pay the fine), well I see that Purdue, the makers of OxyContin, are paying $8.3bn and pleading guilty to at least some criminal charges.
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
You have outdone yourself to a degree that I did not think possible.
Just bravo.
And which were funded by the opiate makers.0 -
Perhaps.rcs1000 said:
The best thing for the Dems electorally would be seen to be prevented from carrying out their agenda by an obstructive Supreme Court.Nigelb said:
Wait ‘til she issues her first couple of judgments, if confirmed.MaxPB said:
The Dems keep falling into the same trap of saying "worst thing ever in history" and then whatever it is just turns out to be merely rubbish and people think "well it's not as bad as we were being told".williamglenn said:Interesting that Amy Coney Barrett is winning over Democrats.
https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/21/supreme-court-hearings-barrett-confirmation-polling/
She did a great job of not answering a single tough question during the hearings - and Democrats kept it low key as they knew anything else would backfire.
I predict she’ll be every bit as bad as forecast.
But it could make governing exceedingly onerous if there is a majority on the court with weird ideas in favour of draconian restrictions to administrative regulations.
Which with a 6-3 court is entirely possible.0 -
The silly thing is he really knows his stuff when it comes to US elections. So I can't understand why he has got tied up in knots over Trafalgar.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
1 -
"...current guidance for office workers is that they should avoid business lunches in restaurants and pubs, in favour of virtual or in-office meetings. However, this is not enshrined in law.isam said:Apparently the way around the restrictions on going to the pub with your mates is to say you are having a business meeting. Is this so?
The spokesperson said: "There is a specific exemption that is there for freelancers and the self-employed to allow people to have meetings.
"But we have been clear that we are encouraging people to meet virtually where possible.""
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/can-i-go-for-a-business-lunch-in-tier-2-london-coronavirus-a4572456.html0 -
Every time there seems to be a plausible theory or some initial analysis e.g. blood group, there is soon research that appears to disprove this.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
1 -
Viral load is important - and is one of the other reasons why masks are helpful.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
5 -
Maybe he just got lucky. I have a lot of time for him but he's just as biased and silly as the rest of usMexicanpete said:
The silly thing is he really knows his stuff when it comes to US elections. So I can't understand why he has got tied up in knots over Trafalgar.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
0 -
Has your dog taught you your skills of deep political analysis?MrEd said:
Yeah right. As opposed to being totally ineffectual and irrelevant where the opposition to the Government is epitomised by a footballer and not the Leader of the Opposition?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke
My dog could do a better job or calling Johnson to account than Starmer3 -
Credit where it is due, he knows his stuff.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Maybe he just got lucky. I have a lot of time for him but he's just as biased and silly as the rest of usMexicanpete said:
The silly thing is he really knows his stuff when it comes to US elections. So I can't understand why he has got tied up in knots over Trafalgar.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
0 -
Speak for yourself - my reading of chicken entrails never fails, except for those times it does, and is rooted in the most firm of logics.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Maybe he just got lucky. I have a lot of time for him but he's just as biased and silly as the rest of usMexicanpete said:
The silly thing is he really knows his stuff when it comes to US elections. So I can't understand why he has got tied up in knots over Trafalgar.CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
Pleasant night everyone, less than 2 weeks to go, such excitement.1 -
I always assumed it related to your penchant for a certain film genre.BluestBlue said:
I'm actually a massive supporter of the Democrats, not to mention the French national team. I don't know why people keep misunderstanding my moniker...Mexicanpete said:
And I thought he was just a Chelsea fan!kle4 said:
I don't think it entirely a mystery that someone going by BluestBlue might be be encouraged that the Tories remain the most popularity UK wide party in the country. ModerateBlue might be inclined to be more self-examining perhaps!Mexicanpete said:
I can't work out why you are so enthused that your government is apparantly doing so well in the opinion polls when they have been so disorganised, corrupt and quite frankly incompetent, certainly over the last few weeks and months. Do you approve of a disorganised, corrupt and incompetent government?BluestBlue said:
Was this more like what you were expecting?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1319030190421528579
Jesus, I was not expecting that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1318937847924076545
I am not of the Tory faith, but if faced with an incompetent left of centre government (or opposition) against even a barely competent Tory alternative, I would critique the left of centre incompetents and consider the more competent alternative. I was quite happy to call out Corbyn, and I am not the greatest fan of Drakeford here in Wales, but at present Johnson's bunch of cowboys take the cake.2 -
Do we have any data as to proportions of infected / hospitalised / deaths compared between spring and autumn ie before and after widespread mask wearing ?rcs1000 said:
Viral load is important - and is one of the other reasons why masks are helpful.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
I am aware that the actual number of infected in spring is many times that of the recorded number.0 -
And if Trump wins?CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
(I have always been clear Biden will win the popular vote, just Trump could narrowly win the EC again)0 -
Quite right. I'm sure she will have had had a bollocking from Starmer as well for causing the distraction.kle4 said:
She has, hasn't she (barely)? You're right how he would have reacted, how both would have reacted, had it been the other way round, but despite that I wouldn't argue she should resign even if she hadn't apologised. She was officially rebuked at the time, and her moment of ill discipline has handed her opponents a distraction and outrage of their own to exploit from the thing she wanted to talk about, that seems proportionate punishment.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1319041059213762562
Let's be honest, if it was the other way around Aaron would have tweeted all day.
Angela should apologise or resign if she won't
That's another good practical reason to, if not remain civil, remain parliamentary. It doesn't help to not do so.0 -
Fox News Michigan poll !
Biden 52
Trump 400 -
I will offer you full credit for predicting it.HYUFD said:
And if Trump wins?CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
(I have always been clear Biden will win the popular vote, just Trump could narrowly win the EC again)1 -
It does look like Michigan and Wisconsin are coming home for Trump in the final weeks, Pennsylvania is leaning to Biden as his state of birth, Arizona also moving Democrat which means it could all come down to Florida once againPulpstar said:Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.0 -
Terrible, but a sign of a huge collective cockup. Hands up, anyone who knows what substance was marketed by Bayer in the 1890s as a "non-addictive morphine substitute"? I knew that anyway (though I thought it was the 1900s till I looked it up), but the lesson passed by the entire US medical establishment? This is a massive systemic failure by whole professions and whole industries, and it is no use trying to pin 100% of the blame on House Harkonnen.rcs1000 said:
There were also a number of advocacy groups that pretended to be "grass roots" which campaigned for a "pain free America" and for the loosening of rules about prescrbing opiates.MrEd said:
Re the opioids stuff, I attended a meeting with the guys who ran one of the largest US pharma trade shows on pain relief. They looked fairly sheepish but one thing they did mention was that prescribing opioids was a hell of a lot cheaper than physio or other pain relief methods hence why doctors went with opioidskle4 said:
That wasn't a criticism of you, it was a criticism of Charles. Since as you say the museum point was from another poster why did you think it was directed at you? Calm the f*ck down.IshmaelZ said:
What a depressingly stupid post. I have already said the Sacklers were complete shits, museums was a bonkers irrelevance from another poster altogether, professionals are not meant to accept without question statements made about the subject-matter of their professional expertise, and what is an omlette?kle4 said:
Ah, so you don't support museums then? Can't make an omlette without deliberately lying about the destructive effects of your drugs.rcs1000 said:
They bribed doctors to prescribe people opioids.IshmaelZ said:
It takes several million to tango, though. The Sacklers seem pretty unpleasant people, but they forced nobody at gunpoint to prescribe or take this stuff, and if them why not go after Smith and Wesson, and Diageo?TimT said:
The estimated costs of dealing with the opiate addiction crisis in the US, primarily created by the Sacklers, runs into the $100s billions, not 8Alistair said:
Absolutely incredible.Charles said:
Question: is that $8.3bn better going to the US taxpayer or to the arts? (Sackler Library, Sackler Gallery etc)kle4 said:You know how often companies pay huge fines without admitting wrongdoing (which of course is the reason they pay the fine), well I see that Purdue, the makers of OxyContin, are paying $8.3bn and pleading guilty to at least some criminal charges.
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
You have outdone yourself to a degree that I did not think possible.
Just bravo.
And which were funded by the opiate makers.0 -
“Leaning”HYUFD said:
It does look like Michigan and Wisconsin are coming home for Trump in the final weeks, Pennsylvania is leaning to Biden as his state of birth, Arizona also moving Democrat which means it could all come down to Florida once againPulpstar said:Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1319039605744820224?s=21
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1319040405619572736?s=211 -
Also @HYUFD Biden is ahead an average of 8 points in Michigan, and 6 points in Wisconsin. They are nowhere near "coming home for Trump" at the moment.2
-
Fox final 2016 Michigan pollnico679 said:Fox News Michigan poll !
Biden 52
Trump 40
Clinton 50% Trump 45%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_11-6-16_FINAL_B.pdf0 -
Btw, it’s incorrect to say that Ginsburg didn’t answer questions informatively at her confirmation hearing:
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/13/628711698/the-reality-of-the-ginsburg-rule?t=16033199322551 -
The trend is the key and Hillary comfortably led the poll average in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, Trump won both on the nightGallowgate said:Also @HYUFD Biden is ahead an average of 8 points in Michigan, and 6 points in Wisconsin. They are nowhere near "coming home for Trump" at the moment.
0 -
Pavlovian dribbling whenever The Donald crops up?Northern_Al said:
Has your dog taught you your skills of deep political analysis?MrEd said:
Yeah right. As opposed to being totally ineffectual and irrelevant where the opposition to the Government is epitomised by a footballer and not the Leader of the Opposition?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1319036054226243589
Labour has played yet another masterstroke
My dog could do a better job or calling Johnson to account than Starmer1 -
So what? You’re making ridiculous proclamations based on 1 or 2 days worth of data. There is nowhere near enough polling evidence to suggest that Michigan or Wisconsin are “coming home” right now. They might, but it’s too early to say.HYUFD said:
The trend is the key and not a single poll and Hillary comfortably led the poll average in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, Trump won both on the nightGallowgate said:Also @HYUFD Biden is ahead an average of 8 points in Michigan, and 6 points in Wisconsin. They are nowhere near "coming home for Trump" at the moment.
0 -
Wisconsin and Michigan are very close to being lost causes for Trump.1
-
Then you have permission to engage smug mode.HYUFD said:
And if Trump wins?CorrectHorseBattery said:If Trump does lose, I hope we will never call HYUFD a polling expert ever again
(I have always been clear Biden will win the popular vote, just Trump could narrowly win the EC again)1 -
It's massively lopsided Biden too.Barnesian said:
That's about 30% of the vote last time. (130m)rottenborough said:40 million US voters have already voted says BBC.
Too late for the October surprise surely now?0 -
Not sure any such comparison would be like for like.another_richard said:
Do we have any data as to proportions of infected / hospitalised / deaths compared between spring and autumn ie before and after widespread mask wearing ?rcs1000 said:
Viral load is important - and is one of the other reasons why masks are helpful.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
I am aware that the actual number of infected in spring is many times that of the recorded number.
Treatment advances such as use of early oxygen on CPAC, changing admission thresholds, age profiles, more regionally concentrated outbreaks, students, more testing finding more milder cases, etc, etc0 -
I would be surprised at this stage, bearing in mind recent gold standard polling, if Wisconsin and Michigan came in for Trump. You do worry me with your wild predictions. I still have nighmares about that Yougov outlier from last year that led you to correctly predict a Johnson landslide.HYUFD said:
It does look like Michigan and Wisconsin are coming home for Trump in the final weeks, Pennsylvania is leaning to Biden as his state of birth, Arizona also moving Democrat which means it could all come down to Florida once againPulpstar said:Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.0 -
Parts of rural Ohio have a greater current infection rate than Manchester.
https://twitter.com/aetiology/status/13190474431248343050 -
Have you forgotten Comey?HYUFD said:
The trend is the key and Hillary comfortably led the poll average in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, Trump won both on the nightGallowgate said:Also @HYUFD Biden is ahead an average of 8 points in Michigan, and 6 points in Wisconsin. They are nowhere near "coming home for Trump" at the moment.
0 -
-
Final poll averages for Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016Andy_JS said:Wisconsin and Michigan are very close to being lost causes for Trump.
Michigan Clinton +3.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
Wisconsin
Clinton +6.5%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html
Result
Michigan Trump +0.3%
Wisconsin Trump +0.7%
Tonight
Michigan Biden +7.8%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
Wisconsin Biden + 4.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html
So on the same error Trump will win Wisconsin and Biden's Michigan lead would be halved
0 -
With so many variables changing and so much incomplete data it makes comparisons difficult and conclusions even more so.dixiedean said:
Not sure any such comparison would be like for like.another_richard said:
Do we have any data as to proportions of infected / hospitalised / deaths compared between spring and autumn ie before and after widespread mask wearing ?rcs1000 said:
Viral load is important - and is one of the other reasons why masks are helpful.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
I am aware that the actual number of infected in spring is many times that of the recorded number.
Treatment advances such as use of early oxygen on CPAC, changing admission thresholds, age profiles, more regionally concentrated outbreaks, students, more testing finding more milder cases, etc, etc1 -
Over compensation against the Dem candidate and COMEY!HYUFD said:
Final poll averages for Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016Andy_JS said:Wisconsin and Michigan are very close to being lost causes for Trump.
Michigan Clinton +3.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
Wisconsin
Clinton +6.5%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html
Result
Michigan Trump +0.3%
Wisconsin Trump +0.7%
Tonight
Michigan Biden +7.8%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
Wisconsin Biden + 4.6%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5976.html
So on the same error Trump will win Wisconsin and Biden's Michigan lead would be halved0 -
@HYUFD you always fail consider the possibility that this time around the polling error is in Biden’s favour. There’s no logical reason why the error will definitely be in Trump’s favour.2
-
Largely irrelevant, Trump did not win the rustbelt because of Corney, he won it because of his anti globalisation, pro tariff, protectionist messageMexicanpete said:
Have you forgotten Comey?HYUFD said:
The trend is the key and Hillary comfortably led the poll average in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, Trump won both on the nightGallowgate said:Also @HYUFD Biden is ahead an average of 8 points in Michigan, and 6 points in Wisconsin. They are nowhere near "coming home for Trump" at the moment.
0 -
Which rust-belters now know was a Great Lakes sized body of snake oil.HYUFD said:
Largely irrelevant, Trump did not win the rustbelt because of Corney, he won it because of his anti globalisation, pro tariff, protectionist messageMexicanpete said:
Have you forgotten Comey?HYUFD said:
The trend is the key and Hillary comfortably led the poll average in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, Trump won both on the nightGallowgate said:Also @HYUFD Biden is ahead an average of 8 points in Michigan, and 6 points in Wisconsin. They are nowhere near "coming home for Trump" at the moment.
0 -
In amongst all the national, and state polling thats been discussed today, two approval polls today kind of summed up the crazy nature of this election and why perhaps there is still so much doubt with many that Trump somehow isnt going to win again, Approval ratings can vary true but these two polls stood out to me:
Rasmussen Approve 49%/Disapprove 50% -1
America Research Group Approve 35%!!/Disapprove 60% -25
Two weeks out and 24% more approve,,,or disapprove,,depending on your point of view!!
0 -
Third wave looks on.Nigelb said:
Or is it all just one big backwash of the first?0 -
Yesterday I learned San Francisco has had fewer cases than N Dakota with a similar population.0
-
Alternatively, @politicalpolls have fat fingers. Those aren't the numbers.HYUFD said:
It does look like Michigan and Wisconsin are coming home for Trump in the final weeks, Pennsylvania is leaning to Biden as his state of birth, Arizona also moving Democrat which means it could all come down to Florida once againPulpstar said:Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.
Though 538 currently has the Biden +11 poll as a Trump +11 so, it's the day for it.0 -
PA and FL are probably the only states that really matter as far as Trump is concerned.0
-
-
You’re right. The true headline figures are:theoldpolitics said:
Alternatively, @politicalpolls have fat fingers. Those aren't the numbers.HYUFD said:
It does look like Michigan and Wisconsin are coming home for Trump in the final weeks, Pennsylvania is leaning to Biden as his state of birth, Arizona also moving Democrat which means it could all come down to Florida once againPulpstar said:Trump's ahead in Michigan *
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1319035453744566275
* Poll excludes leaners
Biden leads "leaners" 70 - 26
** Leaners have already voted.
*** Poll is 50 - 45 with **leaners.
**** Turnout needs to be over 7 million in Michigan or thereabouts for this poll to be correct now.
Though 538 currently has the Biden +11 poll as a Trump +11 so, it's the day for it.
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 45% (+3)
Changes from 23rd September.0 -
They had a very strict lockdown quite early in the Bay Area.dixiedean said:Yesterday I learned San Francisco has had fewer cases than N Dakota with a similar population.
0 -
0
-
-
This - there are a million theories. No answers yet.FrancisUrquhart said:
Every time there seems to be a plausible theory or some initial analysis e.g. blood group, there is soon research that appears to disprove this.Andy_JS said:Does anyone yet know why Covid-19 affects a small proportion of people so severely when most people either aren't affected by it or are only slightly affected? This seems to be one of the biggest mysteries of the virus.
There is something missing in the puzzle - some times the virus appears extremely infectious. At others, groups of people in close proximity - sharing a crowed chalet or on a cruise ship - an only a small percentage fall ill.0 -
Given 538 forecast Hillary 302 Trump 235 in its final EC projection I will stick to making comparisons to 2016Gallowgate said:0
