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If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed – politicalbetting.com
If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed – politicalbetting.com
Florida with its 29 electoral votes has been looking pretty good for Biden and the current FiveThirtyEight average has Biden 3.5% ahead. What makes this interesting from a betting perspective is that as I write Trump and Biden are running at fifty-fifty on the Betfair exchange.
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318953044478971905?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318950068091785216?s=20
I'm going to be home alone in Tier 2.
I'll have PB for company and I'm idly thinking about setting up a Zoom meeting for anyone interested.
We'd need to rename ourselves with our PB handle in the waiting room.
What do you think?
Evidence point 1:
Polling is expensive, and they have no customers.
Evidence point 2:
They have no "employees" and aren't an incorporated entity
Evidence point 3:
The many who "runs" them is a Republican political operative, not a pollster with any record of working at any market research firm
Evidence point 4:
Their website and their polls are contradictory about their polling methodology
Evidence point 5:
They poll weightings by congressonal district are identical (to the decimal point) between "polls"
Just how hugely guilty must they have been to pay up and actually admit some wrongdoing?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636002
Do they really find the 'shy trumpers' that others can't? I'm not convinced but if they do then we could end up with some kind of repeat of 2016 but even closer.
Biden 47% (+2)
Trump 47% (-3)
Changes from 23rd September.
https://twitter.com/ChrisClarksonMP/status/1318953306807521282
The change in reported cases for 19/10/20 was no less than 13,895 - for yesterday the equivalent number was 5,363.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England
I don't know if that means a huge increase in new cases, a huge increase in test processing or merely a data variation.
We will see what tomorrow brings.
If we discount that piece of data then the England new cases for the previous seven days look promising.
But we will see.
Shame.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-1020/
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-0920/
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-0820/
Look at he the Demographic Breakdowns and especially Congressional District Breakdowns.
They are identical!
The chance of that having stability to 1 decimal place in 3 polls is basically nil. They are either lying about how they are doing the polling or they are just making it up.
Either way they are bullshiters
If he was a Greater Manchester MP then he'd be in trouble with this vote.
I mean, I think using gratuitous insults in the Commons is pathetic and unnecessary, but the whinging letter is just sad, particularly when she was, I believe, already upbraided for her use of language anyway. So it seems like an attempt to get an outrage spiral going, which is petty.
8 billion and under a half dozen offences admitted is probably a good deal for them.
The costs associated with building HS2, the high speed railway linking northern and southern England, have risen again.
The news comes less than two months after construction officially began.
Ministers have admitted an extra £800m is needed due to more asbestos being discovered and the complexities of bringing the railway into a new hub station at London Euston.
Earlier this year the government gave HS2 a revised budget of £98bn after previous costings became unrealistic.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54538639
The government has rejected a proposal for a £300m airport rail link saying it "would not offer value for money".
Doncaster Sheffield Airport would have been joined to the East Coast mainline by 4.5 miles (7.2km) of new track.
The plan's backers claimed it would create 72,000 new jobs and bring in £3.2bn of income to South Yorkshire.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-54632396
Not good imagery for the government and likely to be repeated whenever a local transport investment doesn't happen.
https://twitter.com/MichelleKinney/status/1318978084771594244?s=20
https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/20/21523492/future-forward-super-pac-dustin-moskovitz-silicon-valley
Biden’s superiority in fundraising is often cited as an example of how much more popular he is than Trump. Actually, a lot of it is driven by tech employees and their firms. Doesn’t mean it doesn’t count (it buys adverts) but shouldn’t be used as an example of how ordinary Americans are coming together to defeat Trump
Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania
Biden 51% (-3)
Trump 43% (+2)
Changes from 6th October.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1318984734282743811?s=20
My goodness some on here are going to be eating lashings of humble pie on election night if Trafalgar are right again
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318985895194824704?s=20
I've come to the conclusion that he's a very impressive young man.
No one has advisors that good
Biden 45% (-3)
Trump 45% (-1)
Changes from 28th September.
For ActBlue (the big Dem grassroots platform) average $47. 31.4 million donations. 6.8 million donors
Most people and organisations have a finite amount of money so there's a limit to what they can spend.
Politicians and taxpayers money on the other hand ...
The Trafalgar numbers in 2020 are bullshit.
He may have done legitimate polling in 2016 but right here, right now he is pumping out garbage and the evidence is all over the reports he is producing.
Surely players are on PAYE and not paid via companies? There did used to be an issue where image rights (as opposed to salaries) were paid via companies but even that was ended in one of the Hammond budgets iirc.
Let me ask you if you went to a Doctor and asked if you had cancer and he got the answer right and you then found out he was a fraud would you go back to him?
Say he calls everything correctly 100% this year and he is therefore a soothsayer, but he then admitted he flipped a coin for every state call, or just made a judgement call, would you say he was the best pollster then? No. He might be a genius or very lucky, but not a pollster.
People would eat humble pie a lot more than they will if you fought the arguments there are, rather than the arguments you want.
And if he is completely wrong this time around, will you eat humble pie? Will you bollocks.
If he's a pollster, that's something else entirely.
The polling suggests that it's a popular policy.
You can go in, and you can see the numbers.
And there is no doubt they have genuinely carried it out.
There's one issue there - however - that should lead to at least some pause.
39% of their sample is a Registered Republican, 35% a Registered Democrat.
Now, Wisconsin doesn't release registration by Party, but given that (in the US as a whole), the Democrats are ten points clear of the Republicans, we should compare that party breakdown with other pollsters.
I'm no political expert, and there is a time for invective, but so often people give their opponents an out by bringing in irrelevant issues or insulting behaviour, when it feels like if you are dogged enough you can wear them down if you give no excuse for them to deflect, and any attacks on you then seem petty.
2.Democrat 32%
3.Independent 19%
Someone in my school's dad won £330,000 on the football pools in 1971. He was lucky, but he was not an opinion pollster.