Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history. – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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£70 million seems like small change for a considerable chunk of England, against £12 billion for a poorly functioning TTI system and God knows what on Brexit damage etc.CarlottaVance said:2 -
The ones I have seen who are Shy Trump are in professional jobs who don't admit it because it would be social (and possibly career) suicide. They will happily admit that they will lie to Biden supporters about voting for Biden - it's not worth the hassle.Peter_the_Punter said:
The concept makes me laugh. Trump voters I have met tend to be anything but shy. In fact they usually harangue you at every opportunity, poking their stubby fingers into your chest while they bellow at you from six inches "...and anything thing, bud!"Barnesian said:
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.noneoftheabove said:
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?Barnesian said:I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.0 -
Mr fiddy has never been keen on paying his taxes.MrEd said:50 Cent is in da Trump club...
https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/hip-hop/9468837/50-cent-endorses-trump-2020-election0 -
I think we may have to be careful what we say here for Mike's sake, but searching Twitter may provide some interesting suggestions which may or may not be well informed.ydoethur said:
Well, that's a story that's passed me by. Sounds quite raunchy though. Which one of Jennifer, Petronella and the three he doesn't admit to were you referring to?MaxPB said:
More a comment about the PM and violinists.ydoethur said:
Now I'm puzzled. Are you saying that anyone who doesn't play the violin is clueless? Because if so that would include me.MaxPB said:
Carrie doesn't play the violin so I'm not sure that's true.ydoethur said:
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.MaxPB said:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.ydoethur said:
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'0 -
It's a nothing amount of money. If anything it should be double that and the businesses should be supported properly, not just kept on minimal life support.FF43 said:
£70 million seems like small change for a considerable chunk of England, against £12 billion for a poorly functioning TTI system and God knows what on Brexit damage etc.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Think of the psychology of the Biden supporting wife and Trump supporting husband (of which the polls suggest there are millions of such couples). Which is likely to be shy? Make an educated guess. But you are right. We will see on November 3rd and beyond.MrEd said:
Let's be honest, we are all guessing here, myself included. We will see on November 3rd and beyondkinabalu said:
Definitely more shy Bidens. If a Trumpster fesses up in polite company they get a rollicking. If a lefty Joe supporter starts dissing their orange hued hero in front of a few of the "base" he or she runs the risk of far worse. Easy to imagine them being shot with a rifle or powerful handgun. You do the math. No, everything points to the polls being wrong the other way this time. Surge of people power. Silent majority about to speak. I quite like the 2.2 on Biden getting over 75m votes.Barnesian said:I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.0 -
I think you may be looking in the looking glass. I am sad about Brexit, not angry. I leave the angriness to plonkers like you who try to tell others how they should identify - remember your crass angry post the other day; the one where you called someone a "twat" because they said they had a European identity, which you pathetically said "triggered" you? Take the massive great beam out of your own eye you silly swivel-eyed pompous excuse for a "Conservative". You and the people like you that have brought your prejudiced small minded Little England views to the fore in the Conservative Party have reduced it to the low pond water from which you come. You are not a Conservative; you are the angry English Nat equivalent of Malcolmg, and that is no compliment.Casino_Royale said:
From your posting style and personality you exhibit on here I think that if it wasn't Brexit you were very angry about it would be something else.Nigel_Foremain said:
You will be pleased to know that I reserve all my rudeness for you darling, with the certainty that when I am here you will always be on with your absurd and uninformed far right views. If you were never rude to others I would feel bad about it, but you know it ain't the case.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Been busy. Do you need to be rude and personal every time, stop being a stalker.Nigel_Foremain said:
You just got up? 🤣🤣Philip_Thompson said:
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.dixiedean said:
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG.TOPPING said:Have there been any developments in Manchester?
4 mins to deadline?
Ball with Boris it seems.
Expect decision in...
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
I've met your type in Conservative Clubs before - everyone edges away to the other end of the bar when they see them arrive.0 -
Similarly friend from Indonesia visited the UKPeter_the_Punter said:
I'd better keep quiet about the details but I have relatives who arrived from North America a while back and were supposed to quarantine but I strongly suspect they happily trolled around London visiting all the usual tourist spots. They were certaainly not subjected to any kind of checking.MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
"How was quarantine?"
He laughed.
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Do you specifically not care about US politics or is it more that you only care about British politics?TOPPING said:
Oh there you are!rottenborough said:
Thanks for your kind comment @Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter said:Enjoyed the thread header, RB. Thank you. I know they are not easy to write and you expose yourself to flack so all thanks are well-deserved, and that goes for other thread-writers too.
It's always interesting to hear contrarian views but your man rather undermines his own case when he speaks of Trump having a 10% chance. As a number of posters have pointed out, that's about the same ballpark as the major models around, such as 538 and The Economist.
There has been less comment on his shy-Trumper remark, despite the fact he seems to be well off the pace here too. The topic has been much analysed since the polling 'failure' of 2016. I have read two very good articles on it. One was by a highly rated polling firm (Emerson, or maybe Monmouth?) and the other was the Kennedy report into how the pollsters performed generally. Both are worth a read but they're long. The executive summary is:
* Shy-Trumpers do exist. They are mostly to be found in higher income groups, especially amongst segments of the population which are generally thought to be strongly Democrat. (Think middle to upper range executives in big firms in Democrat-voting States.)
* The number is not great - possibly enough to be noticeable at district level but unlikely to be enough to turn a whole State, especially as they have to be netted off against....
* Shy Biden voters: these are the STs mirror image. (Think construction site workers who consider it unwise to let their peers know they think Trump is a schmuck.)
The reports also looked at the related question of under-weighting of low education voters in the samples. This was probably the biggest contributor to the 'fail'. Most decent polling organisations have adjusted for this now, which is not to say that another unforeseen probem may arise, or that it won't cut the other way this time and overestimate Trump's vote. Nobody knows. When you are dealing with humans, anything can happen (which I kind of like and find reassuring.)
Your man is no doubt an excellent historian and I envy you having the opportunity to listen to him, but his knowledge of polls and polling seems to be a little on the thin side. I'd certainly back a number of PB posters against him. In fact, I kind of have.
If there's any flak flying please aim it at Niall Ferguson. I am merely the messenger
Good header! And I don't really care about US politics.0 -
Definitely worth a read. Makes many of the points that are in Krastev & Holmes, although they see the shift in foreign policy coming as Bush was replaced by Obama, with Trump taking Obama’s disengagement toward its logical conclusion. Trump as symptom of his times is a powerful argument.Sandpit said:
That is indeed a very good, if rather long, piece.CarlottaVance said:Good long read in The Atlantic on Trump & US Foreign Policy
The central problem for Trump’s opponents is this: He wasn’t wrong.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/donald-trump-foreign-policy/616773/
Meanwhile with the election, the greater parallel is surely UK 2019, with people poring over the polls looking for any sign that the previous election might be about to repeat itself, when objectively it has been clear all along that it won’t.1 -
For me, the interesting this is the age differences rather than the party splits - Under 40s massively under voting compared to their share of the voting population. Will they come out in the next few weeks or Nov 3rd and, if they don't, surely a plus for Trump?Pulpstar said:Noone is denying (Well aside from GOP internals apparently) that North Carolina may well be close
Unlike many states, it had a very good early tally last time round
The final early split was
Dem 1308011
GOP 1004341
Una 824738
3.14 million votes in.
So far the tallies are
Dem 708355
GOP 379640
Una 433498
With 1.52 million votes in.0 -
If you rely on CNN to get the objective truth about America, well....Mysticrose said:Here is a good example of why Trump is going to be hammered. The biggest mistake I made in 2019 was not watching inside Labour. If you want to know how things are going, look deep inside the party, watch and listen.
Trump is going down. Big time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/john-cornyn-texas-mj-hegar/index.html1 -
I don't know. I was surprised at how well the stay home instruction was followed. And I think that, since this would be a measure directed at a small minority, there would be a lot of people in favour of it. Think of the reaction to people like Ferrier, who did apologise.TOPPING said:
I disagree OGA, those restrictive measures would never have flown in the UK. We simply don't roll like that.Mysticrose said:
If explained clearly from the outset, that it was the best possible path not only to saving lives but to saving your jobs (look at China) ... then yes.FrancisUrquhart said:CarlottaVance said:
Anybody who claims well we should be more like the Asian countries, do they think people in the UK would accept this?
But Johnson never had any grip on the facts, dithered, issued conflicting and contradictory twaddle, never censured his svengali ... must I go on?
There is, of course, an alternative or complimentary route to 'Asia's' approach and it was New Zealand's. Seal the borders and then you can live free. You just can't travel abroad and no one can come in. 14 day mandatory quarantine. I have friends on South Island who haven't had to wear a mask in months and don't have to think about the virus.0 -
It's fractions of roundings - this seems uncharacteristically tone deaf from Rishi.FF43 said:
£70 million seems like small change for a considerable chunk of England, against £12 billion for a poorly functioning TTI system and God knows what on Brexit damage etc.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Perhaps Trump should be running ads about Biden's "double whammy".tlg86 said:2 -
I think I am right in saying that some of the most pro-Biden polls have quite large implied 'youth boom' assumptions.MrEd said:
For me, the interesting this is the age differences rather than the party splits - Under 40s massively under voting compared to their share of the voting population. Will they come out in the next few weeks or Nov 3rd and, if they don't, surely a plus for Trump?Pulpstar said:Noone is denying (Well aside from GOP internals apparently) that North Carolina may well be close
Unlike many states, it had a very good early tally last time round
The final early split was
Dem 1308011
GOP 1004341
Una 824738
3.14 million votes in.
So far the tallies are
Dem 708355
GOP 379640
Una 433498
With 1.52 million votes in.
Not happening??0 -
Don't loads of rich New Yorkers already just claim they actually live in Florida for tax purposes? e.g.
Investigators for the department began an inquiry into Jeter’s filings about a year ago. Officials had contended that Jeter, one of the highest-paid players in baseball, filed nonresident income tax returns to New York between 2001 and 2003, claiming his off-season home in Tampa, Fla., as his primary residence. Florida has no state income tax.
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/06/nyregion/06jeter.html0 -
What is HMG seeking to achieve with these negotiations?CarlottaVance said:witter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1318515437416681472?s=20
The best explanations I can come up with are that they are a distraction from something else, or that they believe a non-partisan approach is now impossible, and only the maximum amount of chaos and division will give them a chance of escaping some of the blame.
Is there a less cynical explanation?0 -
Indeed. Shapps and other ministers seem to be living in some fairytale world where everyone obeys the rules. It's patently obvious that incoming quarantine adherence is probably around 1-2% of arrivals, the system isn't functioning at all and it needs to be scrapped, Shapps is endangering the whole country with his idiocy. It's maddening.CarlottaVance said:
Similarly friend from Indonesia visited the UKPeter_the_Punter said:
I'd better keep quiet about the details but I have relatives who arrived from North America a while back and were supposed to quarantine but I strongly suspect they happily trolled around London visiting all the usual tourist spots. They were certaainly not subjected to any kind of checking.MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
"How was quarantine?"
He laughed.0 -
FYI, from Reckitt's Q3 numbers:
"Sexual wellbeing products also saw temporarily reduced demand, due to reduced social
interactions, although, where markets have started to open up, there have already been good signs ofrecovery. Early indications from Australia and South Africa, during their winter, also suggests that social distancing will result in a weaker cold and flu season this year – the effects of which are
beginning to be seen in demand for some over-the-counter (OTC) medications in our larger markets. "0 -
I don't really spend enough time on it to have informed views (who is ahead in Iowa...what is happening in Michigan...which pollster was right about Texas...).kinabalu said:
Do you specifically not care about US politics or is it more that you only care about British politics?TOPPING said:
Oh there you are!rottenborough said:
Thanks for your kind comment @Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter said:Enjoyed the thread header, RB. Thank you. I know they are not easy to write and you expose yourself to flack so all thanks are well-deserved, and that goes for other thread-writers too.
It's always interesting to hear contrarian views but your man rather undermines his own case when he speaks of Trump having a 10% chance. As a number of posters have pointed out, that's about the same ballpark as the major models around, such as 538 and The Economist.
There has been less comment on his shy-Trumper remark, despite the fact he seems to be well off the pace here too. The topic has been much analysed since the polling 'failure' of 2016. I have read two very good articles on it. One was by a highly rated polling firm (Emerson, or maybe Monmouth?) and the other was the Kennedy report into how the pollsters performed generally. Both are worth a read but they're long. The executive summary is:
* Shy-Trumpers do exist. They are mostly to be found in higher income groups, especially amongst segments of the population which are generally thought to be strongly Democrat. (Think middle to upper range executives in big firms in Democrat-voting States.)
* The number is not great - possibly enough to be noticeable at district level but unlikely to be enough to turn a whole State, especially as they have to be netted off against....
* Shy Biden voters: these are the STs mirror image. (Think construction site workers who consider it unwise to let their peers know they think Trump is a schmuck.)
The reports also looked at the related question of under-weighting of low education voters in the samples. This was probably the biggest contributor to the 'fail'. Most decent polling organisations have adjusted for this now, which is not to say that another unforeseen probem may arise, or that it won't cut the other way this time and overestimate Trump's vote. Nobody knows. When you are dealing with humans, anything can happen (which I kind of like and find reassuring.)
Your man is no doubt an excellent historian and I envy you having the opportunity to listen to him, but his knowledge of polls and polling seems to be a little on the thin side. I'd certainly back a number of PB posters against him. In fact, I kind of have.
If there's any flak flying please aim it at Niall Ferguson. I am merely the messenger
Good header! And I don't really care about US politics.
I am interested in who wins the presidency but beyond that I don't really want to see the sausage being made.2 -
Carlisle flight schedule is structured around the locations of the Haughey family housesalgarkirk said:
Among the smallest of the small, Carlisle Airport, briefly running scheduled flights to two destinations (Southend and Belfast IIRC) after decades of trying to get up and running is defunct for now, closed by the virus. Perhaps anyone who has travelled on it should get a medal.eek said:
Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).Sandpit said:
I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.IshmaelZ said:
Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.Sandpit said:
I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.Stocky said:
Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.Sandpit said:Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/
Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).
Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.
Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.0 -
OK, thanks. That's interesting.theProle said:
I think we may have to be careful what we say here for Mike's sake, but searching Twitter may provide some interesting suggestions which may or may not be well informed.ydoethur said:
Well, that's a story that's passed me by. Sounds quite raunchy though. Which one of Jennifer, Petronella and the three he doesn't admit to were you referring to?MaxPB said:
More a comment about the PM and violinists.ydoethur said:
Now I'm puzzled. Are you saying that anyone who doesn't play the violin is clueless? Because if so that would include me.MaxPB said:
Carrie doesn't play the violin so I'm not sure that's true.ydoethur said:
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.MaxPB said:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.ydoethur said:
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'
I hope these fiddlers know what they're doing. This story clearly comes with strings attached.
I'll take a bow...1 -
Well one idea I posited some time ago was to let the lower risk groups and those who don't interact with higher risk groups resume their activities more or less as normal while shielding those at high risk.LostPassword said:
I don't know. I was surprised at how well the stay home instruction was followed. And I think that, since this would be a measure directed at a small minority, there would be a lot of people in favour of it. Think of the reaction to people like Ferrier, who did apologise.TOPPING said:
I disagree OGA, those restrictive measures would never have flown in the UK. We simply don't roll like that.Mysticrose said:
If explained clearly from the outset, that it was the best possible path not only to saving lives but to saving your jobs (look at China) ... then yes.FrancisUrquhart said:CarlottaVance said:
Anybody who claims well we should be more like the Asian countries, do they think people in the UK would accept this?
But Johnson never had any grip on the facts, dithered, issued conflicting and contradictory twaddle, never censured his svengali ... must I go on?
There is, of course, an alternative or complimentary route to 'Asia's' approach and it was New Zealand's. Seal the borders and then you can live free. You just can't travel abroad and no one can come in. 14 day mandatory quarantine. I have friends on South Island who haven't had to wear a mask in months and don't have to think about the virus.
And then for those contacted by track and trace, enforce the 14-day quarantine very brutally - thousands of pounds fine right off, threat of prison, perhaps.0 -
Yep, I've got you spot on.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think you may be looking in the looking glass. I am sad about Brexit, not angry. I leave the angriness to plonkers like you who try to tell others how they should identify - remember your crass angry post the other day; the one where you called someone a "twat" because they said they had a European identity, which you pathetically said "triggered" you? Take the massive great beam out of your own eye you silly swivel-eyed pompous excuse for a "Conservative". You and the people like you that have brought your prejudiced small minded Little England views to the fore in the Conservative Party have reduced it to the low pond water from which you come. You are not a Conservative; you are the angry English Nat equivalent of Malcolmg, and that is no compliment.Casino_Royale said:
From your posting style and personality you exhibit on here I think that if it wasn't Brexit you were very angry about it would be something else.Nigel_Foremain said:
You will be pleased to know that I reserve all my rudeness for you darling, with the certainty that when I am here you will always be on with your absurd and uninformed far right views. If you were never rude to others I would feel bad about it, but you know it ain't the case.Philip_Thompson said:
No. Been busy. Do you need to be rude and personal every time, stop being a stalker.Nigel_Foremain said:
You just got up? 🤣🤣Philip_Thompson said:
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.dixiedean said:
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG.TOPPING said:Have there been any developments in Manchester?
4 mins to deadline?
Ball with Boris it seems.
Expect decision in...
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
I've met your type in Conservative Clubs before - everyone edges away to the other end of the bar when they see them arrive.
Like I would in real life: I'll simply ignore you.0 -
It's a good example of why I'd vote for a rational Republican candidate.williamglenn said:
Perhaps Trump should be running ads about Biden's "double whammy".tlg86 said:
Those tax rates are approaching Scandinavian levels.0 -
Class interest prevails here then.MrEd said:50 Cent is in da Trump club...
https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/hip-hop/9468837/50-cent-endorses-trump-2020-election0 -
No, they'll thank the scientists.FF43 said:
Boris is investing heavily in a vaccine. When the Covid survivors rub their bleary eyes in the dawn of 2022, they will thank the Johnson for deliverance.GIN1138 said:Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
Particularly as the Oxford vaccine technology was in the works long before Johnson got anywhere near No.10.
Though he deserves some credit for realising/being persuaded that it needed fast and substantial funding.0 -
They're quibbling over maybe £10 per head, that has to cover a lot of different headings?CarlottaVance said:
It's fractions of roundings - this seems uncharacteristically tone deaf from Rishi.FF43 said:
£70 million seems like small change for a considerable chunk of England, against £12 billion for a poorly functioning TTI system and God knows what on Brexit damage etc.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I’ve not been on the site much recentlyCorrectHorseBattery said:
I think this site is a lot less pro-Biden than other comparable sites.Benpointer said:
Haha, yes that's fair...MrEd said:Very good post @rottenborough
To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.
Then again, a poll of this site would have Biden about 95% ahead.
Although I am also not making a prediction for the election, I bet somehow those who get it wrong won't get the kind of abuse I get though
But on almost every thread I’ve seen you complain about being abused
And never, y’know, actually abused
(You can add 1 to the abuse tally for that if it makes you feel better)4 -
I don`t think that`s right. They don`t assume that everyone will obey the rules. Rather, they are banking on the fact that they won`t.MaxPB said:
Indeed. Shapps and other ministers seem to be living in some fairytale world where everyone obeys the rules. It's patently obvious that incoming quarantine adherence is probably around 1-2% of arrivals, the system isn't functioning at all and it needs to be scrapped, Shapps is endangering the whole country with his idiocy. It's maddening.CarlottaVance said:
Similarly friend from Indonesia visited the UKPeter_the_Punter said:
I'd better keep quiet about the details but I have relatives who arrived from North America a while back and were supposed to quarantine but I strongly suspect they happily trolled around London visiting all the usual tourist spots. They were certaainly not subjected to any kind of checking.MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
"How was quarantine?"
He laughed.
Their aim is that compliance is sufficient to keep prevalence down to a degree until a vaccine is introduced, without bankrupting the country - and recognising that we live in a liberal democracy not a collectivist state. So, at the same time, they want it to appear that they are strong and doing stuff without coming over as drachonian: appear to be authoritarian, but lightly enforce the rules (if at all).
Edit: airport testing would be good I agree. Needs to be costed though.0 -
To put that into context every single one of those tax rates are lower than the tax rate those on Universal Credit face.tlg86 said:0 -
It always amazes me how much credit Truman gets for Gen Marshall’s work.OldKingCole said:Morning everyone. I'm not sure that the statement History repeats itself twice is always true, and anyway that this is 1948 all over again applies here. Trump has his enthusiasts but he also has a lot of disenchanted one-time supporters, and his in the middle of a 'war' which many perceive him as losing. Truman was still the guy who ended WWII, and, as Mr RB points out, who had the Berlin Airlift going, which was supposed to have failed within a few days.
Can I also put in a small thought on Ms Cyclefree's piece yesterday. Last May we were told that Cummings trip North would soon be forgotten; it's quite noticeable that it hasn't been, and 'them and us' seems to be alive and kicking.
I guess he was a lucky president0 -
Well, he did appoint him. And Hoover, for the matter of that.Charles said:
It always amazes me how much credit Truman gets for Gen Marshall’s work.OldKingCole said:Morning everyone. I'm not sure that the statement History repeats itself twice is always true, and anyway that this is 1948 all over again applies here. Trump has his enthusiasts but he also has a lot of disenchanted one-time supporters, and his in the middle of a 'war' which many perceive him as losing. Truman was still the guy who ended WWII, and, as Mr RB points out, who had the Berlin Airlift going, which was supposed to have failed within a few days.
Can I also put in a small thought on Ms Cyclefree's piece yesterday. Last May we were told that Cummings trip North would soon be forgotten; it's quite noticeable that it hasn't been, and 'them and us' seems to be alive and kicking.
I guess he was a lucky president0 -
I suspect they do think that, but they are wrong in my view. Rules should be the minimum necessary but if they are necessary they should be enforced. It takes leadership and dialogue to get people's compliance.Stocky said:
I don`t think that`s right. They don`t assume that everyone will obey the rules. Rather, they are banking on the fact that they won`t.MaxPB said:
Indeed. Shapps and other ministers seem to be living in some fairytale world where everyone obeys the rules. It's patently obvious that incoming quarantine adherence is probably around 1-2% of arrivals, the system isn't functioning at all and it needs to be scrapped, Shapps is endangering the whole country with his idiocy. It's maddening.CarlottaVance said:
Similarly friend from Indonesia visited the UKPeter_the_Punter said:
I'd better keep quiet about the details but I have relatives who arrived from North America a while back and were supposed to quarantine but I strongly suspect they happily trolled around London visiting all the usual tourist spots. They were certaainly not subjected to any kind of checking.MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
"How was quarantine?"
He laughed.
Their aim is that compliance is sufficient to keep prevalence down to a degree until a vaccine is introduced, without bankrupting the country - and recognising that we live in a liberal democracy not a collectivist state. So, at the same time, they want it to appear that they are strong and doing stuff without coming over as drachonian: appear to be authoritarian, but lightly enforce the rules (if at all).
Edit: airport testing would be good I agree. Needs to be costed though.0 -
Cillit Bang !ydoethur said:At least one type of activity is up:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-546134750 -
Mugabe also used to say his elections were free and fair. Did you take his word for it too?HYUFD said:
I am not Bolivian I have no direct interest in the election, if the Bolivian authorities say it is free and fair then it is free and fairCorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you at least acknowledge that this election was won fair and square even if you don't like the result?HYUFD said:
Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile.IshmaelZ said:I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=201 -
So the choice is between Trump or the most economically leftwing Democratic President since LBJtlg86 said:0 -
Please come back on a little more often!Charles said:
I’ve not been on the site much recentlyCorrectHorseBattery said:
I think this site is a lot less pro-Biden than other comparable sites.Benpointer said:
Haha, yes that's fair...MrEd said:Very good post @rottenborough
To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.
Then again, a poll of this site would have Biden about 95% ahead.
Although I am also not making a prediction for the election, I bet somehow those who get it wrong won't get the kind of abuse I get though
But on almost every thread I’ve seen you complain about being abused
And never, y’know, actually abused
(You can add 1 to the abuse tally for that if it makes you feel better)0 -
-
-
Agreed on every point.MaxPB said:
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.ydoethur said:
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?MaxPB said:Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.2 -
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.1 -
He's obviously not black then.MrEd said:50 Cent is in da Trump club...
https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/hip-hop/9468837/50-cent-endorses-trump-2020-election0 -
Do you have some examples of these polls?contrarian said:
I think I am right in saying that some of the most pro-Biden polls have quite large implied 'youth boom' assumptions.MrEd said:
For me, the interesting this is the age differences rather than the party splits - Under 40s massively under voting compared to their share of the voting population. Will they come out in the next few weeks or Nov 3rd and, if they don't, surely a plus for Trump?Pulpstar said:Noone is denying (Well aside from GOP internals apparently) that North Carolina may well be close
Unlike many states, it had a very good early tally last time round
The final early split was
Dem 1308011
GOP 1004341
Una 824738
3.14 million votes in.
So far the tallies are
Dem 708355
GOP 379640
Una 433498
With 1.52 million votes in.
Not happening??0 -
"Ministers will be told to “sod off” if they try to impose Tier 3 restrictions on Hartlepool, a local leader has said."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/20/boris-johnson-manchester-tier-3-lockdown-brexit-news-latest/0 -
Jezza and his mates of course used to go to Venezuela as "independent" election observers to make sure those were free and fair as well.Charles said:
Mugabe also used to say his elections were free and fair. Did you take his word for it too?HYUFD said:
I am not Bolivian I have no direct interest in the election, if the Bolivian authorities say it is free and fair then it is free and fairCorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you at least acknowledge that this election was won fair and square even if you don't like the result?HYUFD said:
Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile.IshmaelZ said:I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=200 -
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The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.0 -
If we were about to run out of money the furlough scheme would be brought to a complete end, testing would be scaled down to hospital admissions, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
I'm not surprised that they'll use any lie in an attempt to get their way, but I don't understand why this particular thing is so important to get their way on.0 -
Is there a spot where all the latest polls appear on 538? I've looked before but never found one.OllyT said:>
538 is the best for polls. More comprehensive and more up to date than RCPPeter_the_Punter said:Big thank you to Hyufd for reporting the latest polls. He really is much prompter (and more accurate!) than RCP, which has degenerated sadly over the years.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.0 -
SurveyUSA have a "stealth" North Carolina poll. Biden up by 5. Cunningham up by 10
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ae5354fc-0990-42a9-b026-aedbe82959310 -
Because they know it's going to be months. And probably encompass all but the most rural.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.
Ps GM is rumoured to be asking for what Lancashire got. £75m for GM, Lancs £42m.
Which is roughly equivalent per capita.0 -
Is Manchester NHS system in as bad a covid state as Hancock wants us to believe?
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/13185173162006323230 -
-
Its ideological and power based. Local govt = bad in the eyes of the govt. Something that needs to be controlled from the centre and would always waste any money it is given.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.0 -
Indeed. Every £ spent locally on Covid mitigation is a pound less for Dido, Capita consultants, "Smart Borders" consultants, real estate owners in Kent and satellite companies with dodgy business models.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.0 -
-
If there needs to be more QE there should be more QE. Deal with the aftermath once the pandemic has passed.LostPassword said:
If we were about to run out of money the furlough scheme would be brought to a complete end, testing would be scaled down to hospital admissions, etc.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
I'm not surprised that they'll use any lie in an attempt to get their way, but I don't understand why this particular thing is so important to get their way on.0 -
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/Peter_the_Punter said:
Is there a spot where all the latest polls appear on 538? I've looked before but never found one.OllyT said:>
538 is the best for polls. More comprehensive and more up to date than RCPPeter_the_Punter said:Big thank you to Hyufd for reporting the latest polls. He really is much prompter (and more accurate!) than RCP, which has degenerated sadly over the years.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.
I can't find a link from the election prediction page to the all polls page, though there's one in the other direction.0 -
One for @Charles, what do you know about UCB? Sounds like good news on the face of it.
"An industry insider tells Guido the firm, ‘UCB’, embarked on a downsizing initiative in which they attempted to shut down their UK operations entirely and shift everything to Belgium, only for the highly-skilled workforce to refuse to move. In the end they gave up, and so the pharmacologists have announced £1 billion of new investment on a 47-acre British campus
https://order-order.com/2020/10/20/belgian-life-science-giants-billion-pound-boost-despitebrexit/0 -
If the government can't afford it then UK doesn't do the lockdowns. If Hancock and co believe this is the point we have reached then we must shield the vulnerable and the rest apply reasonable social distancing and get on with life.dixiedean said:
Because they know it's going to be months. And probably encompass all but the most rural.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.
Ps GM is rumoured to be asking for what Lancashire got. £75m for GM, Lancs £42m.
Which is roughly equivalent per capita.0 -
Problem for the government is that this ship sailed as soon as they started negotiations with Liverpool. The bitter row over Manchester is mostly because they offered considerably less per head than they did to Liverpool.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.
I think the whole thing is madness (I'm a lockdown sceptic), but as practical politics they would have done far better to have come up with an amount of cash per head for tier 3 areas on a take it or leave it basis as part of the tier system than to start negotiations with a succession of local mayors in turn, each of whom will always want at least what the last bloke got.0 -
There is a more or less universal unwillingness to put a figure on how much is too much when it comes to the subject of the amount we will be asking our grandchildren to lend us for us to spend right now and for them to pay back after our day.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.
3 trillion? 4 trillion?.....
Remembering that we never even started paying back what we borrowed to cover the crisis of 2008 it seems to me this is a central question.
Who is representing our grandchildren's interest?
2 -
Barnesian said:
I agree. I'm suggesting there is a shy Biden vote (suburban wives of strident Trump husbands) - not a shy Trump vote.Mysticrose said:
It's crap. There's no shy Trump vote out there. There's no 1948 redux. The polls are, if anything, underestimating the Biden share.Barnesian said:
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.noneoftheabove said:
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?Barnesian said:I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Landslide.
Or previous shy, college educated, white men...
The claim below is not backed by published evidence, but Tim Alberta is a pretty sound journalist, so I don't think he's making it up.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/20/alberta-two-weeks-2020-election-feelings-430238
...The problem for Trump? That holdout of college-educated white men is breaking—and not in his direction.
Twice in the past week, I’ve been given reliable polling from the ground in battleground states that suggests something that was once unthinkable: Trump is losing college-educated white men for the first time in his presidency. The margins aren’t huge, but they are consistent with a trend line that dates to 2018, when Republicans carried this demographic by just 4 points. What the numbers suggest—in both private and public polling—is that Biden is no longer just walloping Trump among white women in the suburbs, he’s pulling ahead with white men there, as well....0 -
That's:Scott_xP said:twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/1318525570540601344
Biden 50% (+1)
Trump 41% (-)
Changes from 26th September. Rated "A+" on 538.2 -
Fair enough. Greatest show on earth for me. Especially this one.TOPPING said:
I don't really spend enough time on it to have informed views (who is ahead in Iowa...what is happening in Michigan...which pollster was right about Texas...).kinabalu said:
Do you specifically not care about US politics or is it more that you only care about British politics?TOPPING said:
Oh there you are!rottenborough said:
Thanks for your kind comment @Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter said:Enjoyed the thread header, RB. Thank you. I know they are not easy to write and you expose yourself to flack so all thanks are well-deserved, and that goes for other thread-writers too.
It's always interesting to hear contrarian views but your man rather undermines his own case when he speaks of Trump having a 10% chance. As a number of posters have pointed out, that's about the same ballpark as the major models around, such as 538 and The Economist.
There has been less comment on his shy-Trumper remark, despite the fact he seems to be well off the pace here too. The topic has been much analysed since the polling 'failure' of 2016. I have read two very good articles on it. One was by a highly rated polling firm (Emerson, or maybe Monmouth?) and the other was the Kennedy report into how the pollsters performed generally. Both are worth a read but they're long. The executive summary is:
* Shy-Trumpers do exist. They are mostly to be found in higher income groups, especially amongst segments of the population which are generally thought to be strongly Democrat. (Think middle to upper range executives in big firms in Democrat-voting States.)
* The number is not great - possibly enough to be noticeable at district level but unlikely to be enough to turn a whole State, especially as they have to be netted off against....
* Shy Biden voters: these are the STs mirror image. (Think construction site workers who consider it unwise to let their peers know they think Trump is a schmuck.)
The reports also looked at the related question of under-weighting of low education voters in the samples. This was probably the biggest contributor to the 'fail'. Most decent polling organisations have adjusted for this now, which is not to say that another unforeseen probem may arise, or that it won't cut the other way this time and overestimate Trump's vote. Nobody knows. When you are dealing with humans, anything can happen (which I kind of like and find reassuring.)
Your man is no doubt an excellent historian and I envy you having the opportunity to listen to him, but his knowledge of polls and polling seems to be a little on the thin side. I'd certainly back a number of PB posters against him. In fact, I kind of have.
If there's any flak flying please aim it at Niall Ferguson. I am merely the messenger
Good header! And I don't really care about US politics.
I am interested in who wins the presidency but beyond that I don't really want to see the sausage being made.0 -
What would the money actually be for? Financial support for the unemployed, those furloughed and businesses ordered closed is already run from central government, not locally.theProle said:
Problem for the government is that this ship sailed as soon as they started negotiations with Liverpool. The bitter row over Manchester is mostly because they offered considerably less per head than they did to Liverpool.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.
I think the whole thing is madness (I'm a lockdown sceptic), but as practical politics they would have done far better to have come up with an amount of cash per head for tier 3 areas on a take it or leave it basis as part of the tier system than to start negotiations with a succession of local mayors in turn, each of whom will always want at least what the last bloke got.0 -
Or those in the UK paying top rate in the allowance withdrawal band, plus NI.Philip_Thompson said:
To put that into context every single one of those tax rates are lower than the tax rate those on Universal Credit face.tlg86 said:0 -
https://election.usc.edu USC Dornsife basically been flat for days.0
-
Thank you. That's what I've been looking for.LostPassword said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/Peter_the_Punter said:
Is there a spot where all the latest polls appear on 538? I've looked before but never found one.OllyT said:>
538 is the best for polls. More comprehensive and more up to date than RCPPeter_the_Punter said:Big thank you to Hyufd for reporting the latest polls. He really is much prompter (and more accurate!) than RCP, which has degenerated sadly over the years.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.
I can't find a link from the election prediction page to the all polls page, though there's one in the other direction.
538 can be oddly difficult to navigate at times.
0 -
I think the Famous Mr Ed is right about one thing; the Biden campaign has run out of steam and is just trying to get to election day without a massive fuck up. The other factor is that Trump doesn't give a fuck about convention, rules, the law, truth or anything else except getting as high as fuck. I am starting to think Trump will do it. I will have an anal prolapse from laughing if he does.1
-
Doesn't follow that the also lie to pollsters. There are a few posters on here who you tell are embarrassed about wanting Trump to win but I suspect would be truthful in a pollMrEd said:
The ones I have seen who are Shy Trump are in professional jobs who don't admit it because it would be social (and possibly career) suicide. They will happily admit that they will lie to Biden supporters about voting for Biden - it's not worth the hassle.Peter_the_Punter said:
The concept makes me laugh. Trump voters I have met tend to be anything but shy. In fact they usually harangue you at every opportunity, poking their stubby fingers into your chest while they bellow at you from six inches "...and anything thing, bud!"Barnesian said:
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.noneoftheabove said:
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?Barnesian said:I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.0 -
And managed to sack that mad bastard MacArthur.ydoethur said:
Well, he did appoint him. And Hoover, for the matter of that.Charles said:
It always amazes me how much credit Truman gets for Gen Marshall’s work.OldKingCole said:Morning everyone. I'm not sure that the statement History repeats itself twice is always true, and anyway that this is 1948 all over again applies here. Trump has his enthusiasts but he also has a lot of disenchanted one-time supporters, and his in the middle of a 'war' which many perceive him as losing. Truman was still the guy who ended WWII, and, as Mr RB points out, who had the Berlin Airlift going, which was supposed to have failed within a few days.
Can I also put in a small thought on Ms Cyclefree's piece yesterday. Last May we were told that Cummings trip North would soon be forgotten; it's quite noticeable that it hasn't been, and 'them and us' seems to be alive and kicking.
I guess he was a lucky president0 -
As far as I have read the main drivers of Biden's polling v Clinton in 2016 are suburban white women and seniors. Could you provide a link to the "youth boom" data please.contrarian said:
I think I am right in saying that some of the most pro-Biden polls have quite large implied 'youth boom' assumptions.MrEd said:
For me, the interesting this is the age differences rather than the party splits - Under 40s massively under voting compared to their share of the voting population. Will they come out in the next few weeks or Nov 3rd and, if they don't, surely a plus for Trump?Pulpstar said:Noone is denying (Well aside from GOP internals apparently) that North Carolina may well be close
Unlike many states, it had a very good early tally last time round
The final early split was
Dem 1308011
GOP 1004341
Una 824738
3.14 million votes in.
So far the tallies are
Dem 708355
GOP 379640
Una 433498
With 1.52 million votes in.
Not happening??2 -
The facts aren't remotely similar.Charles said:
Mugabe also used to say his elections were free and fair. Did you take his word for it too?HYUFD said:
I am not Bolivian I have no direct interest in the election, if the Bolivian authorities say it is free and fair then it is free and fairCorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you at least acknowledge that this election was won fair and square even if you don't like the result?HYUFD said:
Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile.IshmaelZ said:I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=20
It's his opponents who are saying it's fair - and the 'authorities' were not on the winner's side.0 -
That's because you were brought up on Columbo and Kojak.kinabalu said:
Fair enough. Greatest show on earth for me. Especially this one.TOPPING said:
I don't really spend enough time on it to have informed views (who is ahead in Iowa...what is happening in Michigan...which pollster was right about Texas...).kinabalu said:
Do you specifically not care about US politics or is it more that you only care about British politics?TOPPING said:
Oh there you are!rottenborough said:
Thanks for your kind comment @Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter said:Enjoyed the thread header, RB. Thank you. I know they are not easy to write and you expose yourself to flack so all thanks are well-deserved, and that goes for other thread-writers too.
It's always interesting to hear contrarian views but your man rather undermines his own case when he speaks of Trump having a 10% chance. As a number of posters have pointed out, that's about the same ballpark as the major models around, such as 538 and The Economist.
There has been less comment on his shy-Trumper remark, despite the fact he seems to be well off the pace here too. The topic has been much analysed since the polling 'failure' of 2016. I have read two very good articles on it. One was by a highly rated polling firm (Emerson, or maybe Monmouth?) and the other was the Kennedy report into how the pollsters performed generally. Both are worth a read but they're long. The executive summary is:
* Shy-Trumpers do exist. They are mostly to be found in higher income groups, especially amongst segments of the population which are generally thought to be strongly Democrat. (Think middle to upper range executives in big firms in Democrat-voting States.)
* The number is not great - possibly enough to be noticeable at district level but unlikely to be enough to turn a whole State, especially as they have to be netted off against....
* Shy Biden voters: these are the STs mirror image. (Think construction site workers who consider it unwise to let their peers know they think Trump is a schmuck.)
The reports also looked at the related question of under-weighting of low education voters in the samples. This was probably the biggest contributor to the 'fail'. Most decent polling organisations have adjusted for this now, which is not to say that another unforeseen probem may arise, or that it won't cut the other way this time and overestimate Trump's vote. Nobody knows. When you are dealing with humans, anything can happen (which I kind of like and find reassuring.)
Your man is no doubt an excellent historian and I envy you having the opportunity to listen to him, but his knowledge of polls and polling seems to be a little on the thin side. I'd certainly back a number of PB posters against him. In fact, I kind of have.
If there's any flak flying please aim it at Niall Ferguson. I am merely the messenger
Good header! And I don't really care about US politics.
I am interested in who wins the presidency but beyond that I don't really want to see the sausage being made.
The Sweeney and the Professionals for me.0 -
Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well0
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Indeed hence Trump's rather pathetic "women why don't you like me, please like me" remarks.OllyT said:
As far as I have read the main drivers of Biden's polling v Clinton in 2016 are suburban white women and seniors. Could you provide a link to the "youth boom" data please.contrarian said:
I think I am right in saying that some of the most pro-Biden polls have quite large implied 'youth boom' assumptions.MrEd said:
For me, the interesting this is the age differences rather than the party splits - Under 40s massively under voting compared to their share of the voting population. Will they come out in the next few weeks or Nov 3rd and, if they don't, surely a plus for Trump?Pulpstar said:Noone is denying (Well aside from GOP internals apparently) that North Carolina may well be close
Unlike many states, it had a very good early tally last time round
The final early split was
Dem 1308011
GOP 1004341
Una 824738
3.14 million votes in.
So far the tallies are
Dem 708355
GOP 379640
Una 433498
With 1.52 million votes in.
Not happening??0 -
Isn't it the Ective Rate of Tax that matters. Trump's would be about 0.01% I magine.Casino_Royale said:
It's a good example of why I'd vote for a rational Republican candidate.williamglenn said:
Perhaps Trump should be running ads about Biden's "double whammy".tlg86 said:
Those tax rates are approaching Scandinavian levels.0 -
I agree they're good for peak tax rates.CorrectHorseBattery said:Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well
Our peak tax rates are already higher than that. If those rates are good we should be having tax cuts.1 -
I thought they were supposed to be extreme socialists ?HYUFD said:
Make your mind up.0 -
Go to the 538 home page. Look at the interactive bits down the right hand side.Peter_the_Punter said:
Is there a spot where all the latest polls appear on 538? I've looked before but never found one.OllyT said:>
538 is the best for polls. More comprehensive and more up to date than RCPPeter_the_Punter said:Big thank you to Hyufd for reporting the latest polls. He really is much prompter (and more accurate!) than RCP, which has degenerated sadly over the years.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.
Second down is the "Latest Presidential Poll Average" interactive. Within that click on "National poll" then once you ate in that screen click on the "LATEST POLLS" at the top. Should get you all the latest state and national polling0 -
I just applied for my Veterans Railcard. When I am on an LNER train as it runs parallel to the M1 am I going to see you, head down on a GPZ900R by the side of and racing the train?Dura_Ace said:I think the Famous Mr Ed is right about one thing; the Biden campaign has run out of steam and is just trying to get to election day without a massive fuck up. The other factor is that Trump doesn't give a fuck about convention, rules, the law, truth or anything else except getting as high as fuck. I am starting to think Trump will do it. I will have an anal prolapse from laughing if he does.
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A years GDP would be fine imo. In the long run similar to taking a gap year personal finance wise.algarkirk said:
There is a more or less universal unwillingness to put a figure on how much is too much when it comes to the subject of the amount we will be asking our grandchildren to lend us for us to spend right now and for them to pay back after our day.TOPPING said:
The whole point is that it looks like more and more areas are going to be put into Tier 3. This is the baseline negotiation. Every region will want what Manchester gets. And the govt is now saying it can't afford it. For some reason, whether you agree or disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't make sense to me. The cost of the pandemic is in the billions not millions. The cost of a national firebreak would be billions not millions.Scott_xP said:
Having a localised lockdown, even if it costs tens of millions more, is considerably cheaper.
Exactly as @contrarian has been saying for months.
3 trillion? 4 trillion?.....
Remembering that we never even started paying back what we borrowed to cover the crisis of 2008 it seems to me this is a central question.
Who is representing our grandchildren's interest?0 -
We used to have tax rates like that in the 1970s and 1980s, then Mrs Thatcher and Nigel Lawson cut the top rate of tax from 60% to 40% in just one budget.CorrectHorseBattery said:Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well
Labour MPs went apeshit, but it increased the tax take.
Higher taxes don't work.3 -
Love the first "too close for comfort" reply.Scott_xP said:0 -
Perhaps those Biden voting wives are more persuasive than thought!Nigelb said:Barnesian said:
I agree. I'm suggesting there is a shy Biden vote (suburban wives of strident Trump husbands) - not a shy Trump vote.Mysticrose said:
It's crap. There's no shy Trump vote out there. There's no 1948 redux. The polls are, if anything, underestimating the Biden share.Barnesian said:
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.noneoftheabove said:
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?Barnesian said:I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Landslide.
Or previous shy, college educated, white men...
The claim below is not backed by published evidence, but Tim Alberta is a pretty sound journalist, so I don't think he's making it up.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/20/alberta-two-weeks-2020-election-feelings-430238
...The problem for Trump? That holdout of college-educated white men is breaking—and not in his direction.
Twice in the past week, I’ve been given reliable polling from the ground in battleground states that suggests something that was once unthinkable: Trump is losing college-educated white men for the first time in his presidency. The margins aren’t huge, but they are consistent with a trend line that dates to 2018, when Republicans carried this demographic by just 4 points. What the numbers suggest—in both private and public polling—is that Biden is no longer just walloping Trump among white women in the suburbs, he’s pulling ahead with white men there, as well....2 -
It can't be that since you're telling me that the pundit I'm criticising, author of The Conservative Soul, *isn't* a conservative.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, that's fair enough. EiT doesn't like conservatives and is very dismissive of their arguments and opinions.HYUFD said:
Andrew Sullivan backed McCain in the primaries and George W Bush in the general election in 2000 but shifted to Kerry in 2004 and has backed the Democrats ever since, he is basically a John McCain RepublicanCasino_Royale said:
Andrew Sullivan isn't a conservative pundit.edmundintokyo said:
The claim you mentioned isn't part of what you quoted. It's a hobby-horse of conservative pundits, that completely failed to shift the polls when they said it would. And we're talking about a policy the candidate doesn't have. So I think it needs some kind of evidence, otherwise the default assumption should be that it's a conservative pundit on his hobby-horse again.Casino_Royale said:
Why wouldn't that be a factor? Security drives voting behaviour as much as money does - which is really just another form of security:edmundintokyo said:
That seems like a very strained explanation for Trump's support holding up among black people, when there are non-strained explanations like voters rating Trump on the economy.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.edmundintokyo said:
Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?Casino_Royale said:Excellent article @rottenborough
One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.
Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-
"Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/amp/
It's a huge blind spot of his.0 -
The Economist now has the chance of a Trump win at 8%:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president2 -
Because I was away this weekend.
Jordan Pickford and David Coote deserve to fired into the North Sea, David Coote makes Dido Harding look competent, as for Jordan Pickford, Everton should be punished for Pickford's disgusting assault on Virgil Van Dijk, the only fitting punishment is to force Everton to pick Pickford for every match this season.0 -
the more complex a tax system is there more loopholes there are to avoid paying it.TheScreamingEagles said:
We used to have tax rates like that in the 1970s and 1980s, then Mrs Thatcher and Nigel Lawson cut the top rate of tax from 60% to 40% in just one budget.CorrectHorseBattery said:Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well
Labour MPs went apeshit, but it increased the tax take.
Higher taxes don't work.
You maximise tax take by ensuring its simple to collect, hard to avoid and reasonable enough that there is little point trying to escape it.1 -
Betfair question: Does anyone know how to get the book percentage back on BF`s site? It used to be there, but not now. It IS on the BF App on my phone but NOT on PC.0
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And by ensuring people believe it is worth it to earn more. If they don't they'll either scan the system or not bother.eek said:
the more complex a tax system is there more loopholes there are to avoid paying it.TheScreamingEagles said:
We used to have tax rates like that in the 1970s and 1980s, then Mrs Thatcher and Nigel Lawson cut the top rate of tax from 60% to 40% in just one budget.CorrectHorseBattery said:Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well
Labour MPs went apeshit, but it increased the tax take.
Higher taxes don't work.
You maximise tax take by ensuring its simple to collect, hard to avoid and reasonable enough that there is little point trying to escape it.1 -
Though our top rate of tax has never been as low as 40% since you need to combine all taxes (which is what that chart shows) so include National Insurance etc too.TheScreamingEagles said:
We used to have tax rates like that in the 1970s and 1980s, then Mrs Thatcher and Nigel Lawson cut the top rate of tax from 60% to 40% in just one budget.CorrectHorseBattery said:Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well
Labour MPs went apeshit, but it increased the tax take.
Higher taxes don't work.0 -
It's very good news.Sandpit said:One for @Charles, what do you know about UCB? Sounds like good news on the face of it.
"An industry insider tells Guido the firm, ‘UCB’, embarked on a downsizing initiative in which they attempted to shut down their UK operations entirely and shift everything to Belgium, only for the highly-skilled workforce to refuse to move. In the end they gave up, and so the pharmacologists have announced £1 billion of new investment on a 47-acre British campus
https://order-order.com/2020/10/20/belgian-life-science-giants-billion-pound-boost-despitebrexit/
https://www.ucb.com/stories-media/Press-Releases/article/UCB-FURTHER-INVESTS-IN-UK-OPERATIONS-WITH-AGREEMENT-TO-ACQUIRE-A-NEW-LEADING-EDGE-CAMPUS
But it's a bit odd that they announced a billion pound UK investment program two years ago:
Drugmaker UCB backs Brexit Britain with 1 billion pound investment
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-pharmaceuticals/drugmaker-ucb-backs-brexit-britain-with-1-billion-pound-investment-idUKKBN1O4007
So it's not entirely unlikely that Guido is talking bollocks about the insider.0 -
Perhaps you can explain why that is without invoking the Laffer curve which you have ridiculed.TheScreamingEagles said:
We used to have tax rates like that in the 1970s and 1980s, then Mrs Thatcher and Nigel Lawson cut the top rate of tax from 60% to 40% in just one budget.CorrectHorseBattery said:Biden tax rate is good, we need to up our tax rates significantly as well
Labour MPs went apeshit, but it increased the tax take.
Higher taxes don't work.
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