Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history. – politicalbetting.com

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Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history. – politicalbetting.com

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eek

first (as I believe a lot of people can't post until someone else has first).

eek

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Gadfly

FPT. I see that opponents of the Great Barrington Declaration are making their voices heard.

Exhibit 1: John M. Barry the author of “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History.” has written this op-ed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/opinion/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Exhibit 2: 4,400 scientists, researchers & healthcare professionals have now signed the John Snow Memorandum.

https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/

eek

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

ydoethur

Truman also had a solid record of achievement to fall back on - ending the war with Japan quickly using A-bombs, guiding people successfully through the global famine of 1947, a strong record of willing to be bipartisan that the Congressional Republicans foolishly threw in his teeth, and a willingness to fight for the underprivileged on principle as shown by his extraordinary courage in taking on the segregationists in the Democrats after he realised how wrong he had been to support them. That’s even before we mention his efforts on pensions and healthcare. His agenda blocked by Congress May have been populist but it’s easy to see how it would be popular in many places. Indeed I would argue it was Truman, far more than Roosevelt or Kennedy, who made the Democrats the progressive party in American politics.

What’s Trump got to fall back on? How’s the wall coming along?

Benpointer

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

alex_ said:

Barnesian said:

Benpointer said:

algarkirk said:

I have every possible sympathy with Cyclefree's view here. However when it comes to spending money you haven't got and which you are borrowing for your grandchildren and their descendants to pay back it seems to me never enough to say there are no limits to what should be spent. Cyclefree would be a great deal more convincing if at least some actual figures were used; such as what is the upper limit on how much we should borrow; in what areas should we spend less or not at all. How much debt is too much? 3 trillion? 4 trillion?

3 trillion is £100,000 per income tax payer. We are currently at over 2 trillion and there appears no plan to stop. - nor has there been really since 2008.

No-one seems to be interested in the financial meaning of all this. And, like Marcus Rashford, you can become a decorated saint merely by campaigning to borrow even more off your great grandchildren to further impoverish them to pay for free something else right now.

Can someone explain to me the downside of just printing (creating) the money? I am sure there must be one but I'm struggling to see it.

I'm with you on this. The debt is with the BoE who printed the money. Some say the debt will have to be repaid. Oh no it doesn't. It doesn't require extra taxes, austerity or a debt to our children or grandchildren. It simply will not be repaid. It never has been. It just grows. It's unimportant. We should stop measuring it.

We should manage growth and inflation instead.

Not sure about this. Large amount of Government debt held by the Bank of England, that the Government doesn't even feel compelled to pay interest on, is in extremely recent development. Basically 10 years old. We really don't have any idea what the consequences will be of this in the long term. It is still a great theoretical experiment.

Yes the national debt has always grown throughout history. But it has never been without limit. Just because the UK has never defaulted, and always been able to borrow to meet its requirements, is not a rule that is set in stone. Not every country has always been so lucky. And there's no guarantee that the UK will be in future.

The UK has sort of defaulted twice. Both were in 1932. In one case, it stopped paying inter allied debt - this was debt that Germany paid to the UK, and then the UK paid to the US. When Germany ceased paying, the UK threw their hands up.

In the second case, the UK unilaterally lowered the coupon (i.e. the interest rate) on certain outstanding bonds from 5% to 3.5% because (to put it bluntly) it couldn't afford the full 5%.

Six countries have never defaulted at all: New Zealand, Australia, Thailand, Denmark, Canada and the USA.

Didn't Australia default in 1931?

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/australias-default-part-1-a-primer

alex_

Ferguson puts the chances at "no more than 10%". Which is pretty much what the polls say.

538 is currently saying 88% Biden.

CarlottaVance

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

Dura_Ace

FPT re: cheap bikes

Rose Pro SL or Canyon Endurace AL 7.0 aren't bad bets if you must slum it. At that price absolutely avoid anything with OEM brand wheels - they are complete garbage. The Rose has DT Swiss and the Canyon has Fulcrum.

IshmaelZ

I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.

IshmaelZ

Dura_Ace said:

FPT re: cheap bikes

Rose Pro SL or Canyon Endurace AL 7.0 aren't bad bets if you must slum it. At that price absolutely avoid anything with OEM brand wheels - they are complete garbage. The Rose has DT Swiss and the Canyon has Fulcrum.

Thanks, that is very valuable advice and in the right price range.

Is there anything from Specialized, to whom I have a vague and irrational brand loyalty?

Sandpit

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

That's not a bad flight to have, albeit rather infrequently. I'll take a guess they've borrowed a slot from BA or Emirates, if it means the larger airlines get a few dozen people to Heathrow who are going elsewhere.

noneoftheabove

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

Truman also had a solid record of achievement to fall back on - ending the war with Japan quickly using A-bombs, guiding people successfully through the global famine of 1947, a strong record of willing to be bipartisan that the Congressional Republicans foolishly threw in his teeth, and a willingness to fight for the underprivileged on principle as shown by his extraordinary courage in taking on the segregationists in the Democrats after he realised how wrong he had been to support them. That’s even before we mention his efforts on pensions and healthcare. His agenda blocked by Congress May have been populist but it’s easy to see how it would be popular in many places. Indeed I would argue it was Truman, far more than Roosevelt or Kennedy, who made the Democrats the progressive party in American politics.

What’s Trump got to fall back on? How’s the wall coming along?

Indeed. Trump has nothing other than perhaps the economy was doing relatively well before covid.

Sandpit

ydoethur said:

Truman also had a solid record of achievement to fall back on - ending the war with Japan quickly using A-bombs, guiding people successfully through the global famine of 1947, a strong record of willing to be bipartisan that the Congressional Republicans foolishly threw in his teeth, and a willingness to fight for the underprivileged on principle as shown by his extraordinary courage in taking on the segregationists in the Democrats after he realised how wrong he had been to support them. That’s even before we mention his efforts on pensions and healthcare. His agenda blocked by Congress May have been populist but it’s easy to see how it would be popular in many places. Indeed I would argue it was Truman, far more than Roosevelt or Kennedy, who made the Democrats the progressive party in American politics.

What’s Trump got to fall back on? How’s the wall coming along?

To be fair to Trump (yes, I know), foreign policy has been one of his better areas, certainly better than many of his immediate predecessors.

He's not got involved in any shooting wars, has brought US troops back home from all around the world, has stood up to China in the trade arena, and was a key facilitator of the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Gulf States.

algarkirk

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

Among the smallest of the small, Carlisle Airport, briefly running scheduled flights to two destinations (Southend and Belfast IIRC) after decades of trying to get up and running is defunct for now, closed by the virus. Perhaps anyone who has travelled on it should get a medal.

eek

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

My only problem is that I hate Heathrow and rather like Schipol...

Heathrow is like CDG (but worse) for inter terminal transfers...

Roy_G_Biv

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

I'm really not sure why so many people think there is a shy Trump vote out there. I mean, there might be, but where's the evidence for it? As I recall, the predictions for the 2018 midterms were very good. Is there any hard evidence out there for shy Trump voters, or is it largely an imaginary fear?

rottenborough

The Dixiecrat thing is interesting. The beginning of the South moving away from the Dems.

noneoftheabove

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

CarlottaVance

On topic - fascinating thread - thank you Rotten Borough - any thoughts from the discussion on Scottish politics? Another thread?

IshmaelZ

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Dura_Ace

IshmaelZ said:

Dura_Ace said:

FPT re: cheap bikes

Rose Pro SL or Canyon Endurace AL 7.0 aren't bad bets if you must slum it. At that price absolutely avoid anything with OEM brand wheels - they are complete garbage. The Rose has DT Swiss and the Canyon has Fulcrum.

Thanks, that is very valuable advice and in the right price range.

Is there anything from Specialized, to whom I have a vague and irrational brand loyalty?

Specialized have the Allez which is not a bad bike but overpriced like every other Specialized due the Sagan (and latterly Alaphillipe) factor. They no longer make any of their own frames (even the vaunted S-Works) and all of their manufacturing is done by Merida who own a large part of Spec. So if you want one you might as well just buy the equivalent Merida and save yourself a few quid.

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Truman also had a solid record of achievement to fall back on - ending the war with Japan quickly using A-bombs, guiding people successfully through the global famine of 1947, a strong record of willing to be bipartisan that the Congressional Republicans foolishly threw in his teeth, and a willingness to fight for the underprivileged on principle as shown by his extraordinary courage in taking on the segregationists in the Democrats after he realised how wrong he had been to support them. That’s even before we mention his efforts on pensions and healthcare. His agenda blocked by Congress May have been populist but it’s easy to see how it would be popular in many places. Indeed I would argue it was Truman, far more than Roosevelt or Kennedy, who made the Democrats the progressive party in American politics.

What’s Trump got to fall back on? How’s the wall coming along?

Has the swamp been drained yet?

Casino_Royale

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

DecrepiterJohnL

Ask a minister a question about coronavirus

Submit a question about coronavirus (COVID-19) to be put to a minister. If your question is chosen, the minister will answer it during an event broadcast to the public.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/ask-a-minister-a-question-about-coronavirus

nichomar

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Ask a minister a question about coronavirus

Submit a question about coronavirus (COVID-19) to be put to a minister. If your question is chosen, the minister will answer it during an event broadcast to the public.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/ask-a-minister-a-question-about-coronavirus

Yes the vicar knows more than a government minister and less likely to lie.

noneoftheabove

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

Sandpit

eek said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

My only problem is that I hate Heathrow and rather like Schipol...

Heathrow is like CDG (but worse) for inter terminal transfers...

Schipol is great because airside it's one massive terminal, and nowhere is more than 15 or 20 minutes' walk from anywhere else. No transfer busses, no collecting bags and checking in again, no long security queues.

CDG has its own special place in Hell, a collection of small airports but with with the long queues and no real facilities.

eek

Roy_G_Biv said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

I'm really not sure why so many people think there is a shy Trump vote out there. I mean, there might be, but where's the evidence for it? As I recall, the predictions for the 2018 midterms were very good. Is there any hard evidence out there for shy Trump voters, or is it largely an imaginary fear?

My thought is not that they are shy more that pollsters may not be picking them up at all - I suspect your typical shy Trumpster isn't likely to be a person a pollster can identify and call.

Benpointer

algarkirk said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

Among the smallest of the small, Carlisle Airport, briefly running scheduled flights to two destinations (Southend and Belfast IIRC) after decades of trying to get up and running is defunct for now, closed by the virus. Perhaps anyone who has travelled on it should get a medal.

I'd give a shout for Southampton being the best regional airport.

Ther worst surely has to be Leeds/Bradford - what a dump.

algarkirk

Roy_G_Biv said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

I'm really not sure why so many people think there is a shy Trump vote out there. I mean, there might be, but where's the evidence for it? As I recall, the predictions for the 2018 midterms were very good. Is there any hard evidence out there for shy Trump voters, or is it largely an imaginary fear?

Absence of evidence is not in itself evidence of absence. Two interesting groups exist among punters: the disproportionate number backing a Trump win (current odds as compared with the poll predictions make that certain), and the number of people who are staying out of putting money on this event.

We haven't ever seen an election that feels like this one. The combination of factors includes: Shy Trumpers: the gap between the popular vote result and the EC system; neither candidate would be close to winning if things were 'normal' - they just are not presidential material but one of them has to win; the fact that the Supreme Court may end up deciding things; the sense that if Trump doesn't have something malign up his sleeve either before or after the vote (or both) it would be out of character.

Put them together and it's all like betting on the National or a game of crazy golf. It isn't priceable.

If a thing is not priceable you either stay out or back the one with the longest odds. Trump.

edmundintokyo

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

noneoftheabove

algarkirk said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

I'm really not sure why so many people think there is a shy Trump vote out there. I mean, there might be, but where's the evidence for it? As I recall, the predictions for the 2018 midterms were very good. Is there any hard evidence out there for shy Trump voters, or is it largely an imaginary fear?

Absence of evidence is not in itself evidence of absence. Two interesting groups exist among punters: the disproportionate number backing a Trump win (current odds as compared with the poll predictions make that certain), and the number of people who are staying out of putting money on this event.

We haven't ever seen an election that feels like this one. The combination of factors includes: Shy Trumpers: the gap between the popular vote result and the EC system; neither candidate would be close to winning if things were 'normal' - they just are not presidential material but one of them has to win; the fact that the Supreme Court may end up deciding things; the sense that if Trump doesn't have something malign up his sleeve either before or after the vote (or both) it would be out of character.

Put them together and it's all like betting on the National or a game of crazy golf. It isn't priceable.

If a thing is not priceable you either stay out or back the one with the longest odds. Trump.

The last line is a non sequitur. You still are better off estimating value.*

* If you have good judgment!

nichomar

Meanwhile in our pox ridden retirement country Spain, the biggest problem we have is what to do for Christmas, is it Benidorm, or a local restaurant. Unlikely to get family from the UK and quarantine makes going back unattractive. Benidorm safe at the moment but won’t have the usual atmosphere so it looks like a local restaurant. All these difficult choices

CarlottaVance

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

Tell JK Rowling that....

You’re sure it’s “the right”‘s Culture War?

https://twitter.com/pinknews/status/1315924483421552640?s=21

Casino_Royale

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.

DecrepiterJohnL

Roy_G_Biv said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

I'm really not sure why so many people think there is a shy Trump vote out there. I mean, there might be, but where's the evidence for it? As I recall, the predictions for the 2018 midterms were very good. Is there any hard evidence out there for shy Trump voters, or is it largely an imaginary fear?

Shy might not be the right word for reluctant or hesitant Trump supporters who might support the Republicans generally, or even applaud the President's achievements, but are repelled by the man's demeanour. It is what I was trying to get at last week by distinguishing the two roles of Head of State and Head of Government.

You can imagine the same in this country. Lifelong Conservatives repelled by Boris, and also voters who like Boris as prime minister but would not want him as our next king.

The paradox here is that if these so-called shy Trump voters are really shy abstentionists then it is Biden who is helped, not Trump.

Dura_Ace

Sandpit said:

He's not got involved in any shooting wars

He's droned Yemen and Somalia over 200 times each.

eek

Benpointer said:

algarkirk said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

Among the smallest of the small, Carlisle Airport, briefly running scheduled flights to two destinations (Southend and Belfast IIRC) after decades of trying to get up and running is defunct for now, closed by the virus. Perhaps anyone who has travelled on it should get a medal.

I'd give a shout for Southampton being the best regional airport.

Ther worst surely has to be Leeds/Bradford - what a dump.

Southampton is the only airport I left 100 minutes early.

Everyone had arrived and Easyjet decided it may as well try to get back to Newcastle early so we did.

tlg86

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-54606261

The widow of a man who was killed when a lorry ploughed into his stationary car on a smart motorway has said the wrong person has been jailed.

Alexandru Murgeanu and Jason Mercer died when Prezemyslaw Szuba crashed into their vehicles on a section of the M1 without a hard shoulder.

As I understand it, Smart Motorways are a net benefit in terms of safety, but of course we never know about the lives saved.

Roy_G_Biv

algarkirk said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

I'm really not sure why so many people think there is a shy Trump vote out there. I mean, there might be, but where's the evidence for it? As I recall, the predictions for the 2018 midterms were very good. Is there any hard evidence out there for shy Trump voters, or is it largely an imaginary fear?

[...]Absence of evidence is not in itself evidence of absence.[...]

Well, not quite. If an opportunity for evidence to appear has passed without that evidence appearing, that IS evidence of absence. It's not proof, but it is evidence.
What I haven't seen is evidence for shy Trump voters since that point. I'm not deeply plugged into US politics, so perhaps someone knows of such evidence?

Casino_Royale

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

I think Hillary Clinton was/is disliked for similar reasons to Meghan Markle - arrogance, entitlement and hypocrisy which they both blamed on sexism and racism, respectively, which only infuriated people more.

I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.

edmundintokyo

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.

That seems like a very strained explanation for Trump's support holding up among black people, when there are non-strained explanations like voters rating Trump on the economy.

Casino_Royale

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

You think the Economist is Right?

algarkirk

Benpointer said:

algarkirk said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

Among the smallest of the small, Carlisle Airport, briefly running scheduled flights to two destinations (Southend and Belfast IIRC) after decades of trying to get up and running is defunct for now, closed by the virus. Perhaps anyone who has travelled on it should get a medal.

I'd give a shout for Southampton being the best regional airport.

Ther worst surely has to be Leeds/Bradford - what a dump.

Part of the attraction of Carlisle Airport when up and sort of running was that it had fewer destinations (2) than Pyongyang (which, hanging on by a thread, still has 3). Not a claim many airports can make.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/DefendDemocracy/status/1318396543364435969?s=20

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

There are some very good and balanced opinion pieces around, if one stays away from the US mainstream media which is hyper-partisan - as well as many peices on Trump 2016 votes going for Biden, I've also read and watched pieces from people moving to Trump, and people who are fed up of the whole sh!t-show and want someone decent to vote for - the latter article incidentally also from the Spectator USA.

Jonathan

Sandpit said:

eek said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

My only problem is that I hate Heathrow and rather like Schipol...

Heathrow is like CDG (but worse) for inter terminal transfers...

Schipol is great because airside it's one massive terminal, and nowhere is more than 15 or 20 minutes' walk from anywhere else. No transfer busses, no collecting bags and checking in again, no long security queues.

CDG has its own special place in Hell, a collection of small airports but with with the long queues and no real facilities.

London BA flights at Schipol can be on the cheapest gate, miles away.

Just before lockdown I was travelling back from Schipol and had to run to the gate with a full winter coat and bags. I swear it was more than a mile.

By the time I got to the gate, my face was red, I was sweating and coughing. This was not a good look for a traveller in March! All eyes were on me as I went down the aisle of the plane.

Could have been worse mind, could have been Gatwick.

MrEd

Very good post @rottenborough

To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.

CorrectHorseBattery

MrEd said:

Very good post @rottenborough

To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.

I don't really agree to be honest, anyone seems to be free to share their views.

Lefties are often shut down and abused on here but we continue to post our views, I am sure it's the same for Trump fans

Sandpit

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

There's only one side trying to stoke a culture war, and they're getting increasingly upset that their opinions are not shared by the majority. They don't think that people with the 'wrong' views on social issues should even be allowed to discuss them.

Casino_Royale

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.

That seems like a very strained explanation for Trump's support holding up among black people, when there are non-strained explanations like voters rating Trump on the economy.

Why wouldn't that be a factor? Security drives voting behaviour as much as money does - which is really just another form of security:

"Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/amp/

Benpointer

MrEd said:

Very good post @rottenborough

To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.

Haha, yes that's fair...

Then again, a poll of this site would have Biden about 95% ahead.

Casino_Royale

Sandpit said:

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

There's only one side trying to stoke a culture war, and they're getting increasingly upset that their opinions are not shared by the majority. They don't think that people with the 'wrong' views on social issues should even be allowed to discuss them.

The objection is that the Right is finally putting up a defence to it after years of unchallenged left-modernism in socio-cultural issues.

MrEd

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

I think Hillary Clinton was/is disliked for similar reasons to Meghan Markle - arrogance, entitlement and hypocrisy which they both blamed on sexism and racism, respectively, which only infuriated people more.

I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.

It's the rage these days to talk about Clinton was a uniquely dislikeable candidate but what gets missed in that analysis is that she also was boosted by the fact that she would have been the first female President. That certainly helped whip up some enthusiasm.

eek

Jonathan said:

Sandpit said:

eek said:

eek said:

Sandpit said:

IshmaelZ said:

Sandpit said:

Stocky said:

Sandpit said:

Some good news amid all the gloom. Former shareholder buys up the assets of bankrupt regional airline FlyBe, hoping to relaunch UK domestic services in the coming months.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/19/flybe-eyes-return-skies/

Good. Liked Flybe. flying with them out of Southampton Airport was always a good experience.

Other good news this morning: £80 covid tests at Heathrow now available (R4).

I used to fly out of Southampton too, I used to live in Salisbury and had a contract in Manchester. It was fantastic to arrive 20 mins before your flight and walk straight through onto the plane.

Rapid tests at Heathrow are a good breakthrough, the plan there is to set up something of an air corridor between London and the USA, with lots of testing to avoid quarantines.

Flybe Exeter to Dublin/Belfast/Edinburgh was fantastic. But I understand this is effectively a bid for the slots at proper airports, sadly.

I used to love small planes and small airports - Exeter to Edinburgh was definitely another good one, alongside anything from London City. The whole experience was miles better than flying short haul out of a bug airport, having to turn up hours early and face huge queues everywhere. Damn @MaxPB for having had the opportunity to fly the now-cancelled BA001 flight from LCY to New York. I never quite managed to find a customer to get me on it.

Sadly small planes are going nowhere near LHR until they build another runway, the slots are just too valuable now - despite the events of this year.

Small planes are back flying to Heathrow we have a MME to Heathrow flight (it was the late morning flight to Aberdeen but it seems taking people to Heathrow for midday is more profitable for Eastern).

My only problem is that I hate Heathrow and rather like Schipol...

Heathrow is like CDG (but worse) for inter terminal transfers...

Schipol is great because airside it's one massive terminal, and nowhere is more than 15 or 20 minutes' walk from anywhere else. No transfer busses, no collecting bags and checking in again, no long security queues.

CDG has its own special place in Hell, a collection of small airports but with with the long queues and no real facilities.

London BA flights at Schipol can be on the cheapest gate, miles away.

Just before lockdown I was travelling back from Schipol and had to run to the gate with a full winter coat and bags. I swear it was more than a mile.

By the time I got to the gate, my face was red, I was sweating and coughing. This was not a good look for a traveller in March! All eyes were on me as I went down the aisle of the plane.

Could have been worse mind, could have been Gatwick.

It's swings and roundabouts though - KLM at Heathrow is always at the arse end of nowhere so it's quip pro quo.

CorrectHorseBattery

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

Very good post @rottenborough

To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.

Haha, yes that's fair...

Then again, a poll of this site would have Biden about 95% ahead.

I think this site is a lot less pro-Biden than other comparable sites.

Although I am also not making a prediction for the election, I bet somehow those who get it wrong won't get the kind of abuse I get though

HYUFD

Good article, Dewey like Biden was a moderate establishment figure picked by his party to win an unloseable election against a clearly unqualified President but in the end Truman won against the odds.

In some respects 1948 looks like what the 2020 map could be in reverse, Truman won most of the south, Dewey swept the northeast and won the plains states and Dewey won Pennsylvania and Michigan but Truman won Wisconsin (though Truman also won every western state bar Oregon).

Comparisons could also be made between this election and 1968, then a genial though non Ivy League moderate Vice President Humphrey was up against a deeply divisive and hated Republican candidate in Nixon and Nixon won by an even closer margin than Truman did by 43.4% to 42.7% in what was the third closest election in the popular vote in postwar history after 2016 and 2000 (though 2004 and 1976 were slightly closer in the EC than 1968).

edmundintokyo

MrEd said:

Very good post @rottenborough

To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.

To someone on this site possibly but to an opinion pollster???

MrEd

Benpointer said:

MrEd said:

Very good post @rottenborough

To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.

Haha, yes that's fair...

Then again, a poll of this site would have Biden about 95% ahead.

I think I might be able to get @Ave_it. I reckon @HYUFD might be a shy Trumpster as well....:)

(Only joking @HYUFD, I know you have said plenty of times you would not vote for him)

nichomar

CarlottaVance said:

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

Tell JK Rowling that....

You’re sure it’s “the right”‘s Culture War?

https://twitter.com/pinknews/status/1315924483421552640?s=21

Ridiculous that they even thought they could play someone is taking the piss.

Pulpstar

Good piece. I note the 10% chance is broadly the same as the 538 average .

One thing about Truman, his approval rating was measured as 39.6% then shot to 69% after the election. Since it wasn't measured for most of 1948 he was probably over 50% before the election. His average first term Gallup approval was ~ 55%, which wasn't terrible by (future !) historic standards.

Lowest re-elected average approval is Obama at 49.1, note Ford 47.2 and Carter 45.5 obviously failed in their bids. Trump's average approval looks by eye to be around 43% to me. Although HW's approval was actually very good for most of his presidency it was definitely in the 30s at the point we are at now in the cycle.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

I think Hillary Clinton was/is disliked for similar reasons to Meghan Markle - arrogance, entitlement and hypocrisy which they both blamed on sexism and racism, respectively, which only infuriated people more.

I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.

Hillary would certainly have been a more intelligent and competent President than Biden or Trump would be but Biden is less hated than she was and she lacked Obama's charisma

Benpointer

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

I think Hillary Clinton was/is disliked for similar reasons to Meghan Markle - arrogance, entitlement and hypocrisy which they both blamed on sexism and racism, respectively, which only infuriated people more.

I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.

It's the rage these days to talk about Clinton was a uniquely dislikeable candidate but what gets missed in that analysis is that she also was boosted by the fact that she would have been the first female President. That certainly helped whip up some enthusiasm.

Wasn't that balanced by misogynists would would never vote for a woman?

Casino_Royale

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

There are some very good and balanced opinion pieces around, if one stays away from the US mainstream media which is hyper-partisan - as well as many peices on Trump 2016 votes going for Biden, I've also read and watched pieces from people moving to Trump, and people who are fed up of the whole sh!t-show and want someone decent to vote for - the latter article incidentally also from the Spectator USA.

Agreed. I still think Biden will win because he's campaigning and winning over the right types of voters where it matters, and he's a fairly moderate candidate, but it might still be a pyrrhic victory and one that doesn't have very much of a honeymoon.

MrEd

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.

That seems like a very strained explanation for Trump's support holding up among black people, when there are non-strained explanations like voters rating Trump on the economy.

Why wouldn't that be a factor? Security drives voting behaviour as much as money does - which is really just another form of security:

"Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/amp/

If you listen to one thing that is repeatedly brought up by Black (usually) men voting for Trump, it's Joe Biden's comment "You Ain't Black". Hard to get across but saying you are "owned" by a political party to a group of people descended from slaves and, as such, personal property really touches a raw nerve

Casino_Royale

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

I think Hillary Clinton was/is disliked for similar reasons to Meghan Markle - arrogance, entitlement and hypocrisy which they both blamed on sexism and racism, respectively, which only infuriated people more.

I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.

It's the rage these days to talk about Clinton was a uniquely dislikeable candidate but what gets missed in that analysis is that she also was boosted by the fact that she would have been the first female President. That certainly helped whip up some enthusiasm.

But, did that boost her where that counted or only amongst the Democratic base?

I must admit I always raise an eyebrow on identity being a driver of voting. If the candidate - or their campaign team - needs to invoke that argument then in my mind it's a sign of the weakness of the candidate.

You didn't get Theresa May doing it, although she did troll Labour with it, and certainly not Mrs. Thatcher - who'd never have dreamt of it.

Sandpit

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

It's certainly the policy of many other Democrat politicians around the country, many of whom have been openly supportive of the 'protests' that turned violent over the summer.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

MrEd

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

There are some very good and balanced opinion pieces around, if one stays away from the US mainstream media which is hyper-partisan - as well as many peices on Trump 2016 votes going for Biden, I've also read and watched pieces from people moving to Trump, and people who are fed up of the whole sh!t-show and want someone decent to vote for - the latter article incidentally also from the Spectator USA.

Agreed. I still think Biden will win because he's campaigning and winning over the right types of voters where it matters, and he's a fairly moderate candidate, but it might still be a pyrrhic victory and one that doesn't have very much of a honeymoon.

I'm the opposite @Casino_Royale and I increasingly think Trump will win, Biden's campaign has the feel of one that is starting to flag.

I just wish the betting markets would turn against him again so I can get better odds.

RochdalePioneers

A great piece @rottenborough and I hope for everyone's sake that you are wrong. Surely the major difference between Trump and Truman is that Truman wasn't batshit crazy.

Benpointer

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

There are some very good and balanced opinion pieces around, if one stays away from the US mainstream media which is hyper-partisan - as well as many peices on Trump 2016 votes going for Biden, I've also read and watched pieces from people moving to Trump, and people who are fed up of the whole sh!t-show and want someone decent to vote for - the latter article incidentally also from the Spectator USA.

Agreed. I still think Biden will win because he's campaigning and winning over the right types of voters where it matters, and he's a fairly moderate candidate, but it might still be a pyrrhic victory and one that doesn't have very much of a honeymoon.

Well that's certainly true. Winning looks probable for Biden but succeeding as President given the shitstorm he would inherit is going to be a much tougher gig.

My pre-prepared consolation in the event of a Trump victory is that 2021 will be a lousy time to be President. That and the fact for all the bombast Trump doesn't actually do very much.

eek

I'm hearing a rumour that NHS Supply Chain have run out of PPE equipment and are telling trusts to find their own.

Benpointer

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

There are some very good and balanced opinion pieces around, if one stays away from the US mainstream media which is hyper-partisan - as well as many peices on Trump 2016 votes going for Biden, I've also read and watched pieces from people moving to Trump, and people who are fed up of the whole sh!t-show and want someone decent to vote for - the latter article incidentally also from the Spectator USA.

Agreed. I still think Biden will win because he's campaigning and winning over the right types of voters where it matters, and he's a fairly moderate candidate, but it might still be a pyrrhic victory and one that doesn't have very much of a honeymoon.

I'm the opposite @Casino_Royale and I increasingly think Trump will win, Biden's campaign has the feel of one that is starting to flag.

I just wish the betting markets would turn against him again so I can get better odds.

Deleted - schoolboy error on my part!

Sandpit

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

He's not got involved in any shooting wars

He's droned Yemen and Somalia over 200 times each.

So a 90% improvement on Obama?

nichomar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

Probably, they shouldn’t be allowed to compete in female events unless they are biologically female there is no rational argument to allow trans people to take part if they are biological males.

edmundintokyo

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Excellent article @rottenborough

One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.

Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-

Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?

I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.

That seems like a very strained explanation for Trump's support holding up among black people, when there are non-strained explanations like voters rating Trump on the economy.

Why wouldn't that be a factor? Security drives voting behaviour as much as money does - which is really just another form of security:

"Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/amp/

The claim you mentioned isn't part of what you quoted. It's a hobby-horse of conservative pundits, that completely failed to shift the polls when they said it would. And we're talking about a policy the candidate doesn't have. So I think it needs some kind of evidence, otherwise the default assumption should be that it's a conservative pundit on his hobby-horse again.

nichomar

eek said:

I'm hearing a rumour that NHS Supply Chain have run out of PPE equipment and are telling trusts to find their own.

I thought Handcock said there was four months stock a few days ago!

Sunil_Prasannan

A Rotten article from a Rotten PBer! (only kidding!)

MrEd

Casino_Royale said:

MrEd said:

Casino_Royale said:

noneoftheabove said:

IshmaelZ said:

noneoftheabove said:

eek said:

My reason for not betting is that I do think there is a shy Trump vote that hasn't been picked up but I suspect they may not actually get out to vote when push comes to shove.

So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).

Two things I dont understand about the shy Trump meme.

1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?

What I don't understand is the claim that there was no shy Trump vote last time, the counterclaim being that undecided genuinely broke 6 to 1 for Trump. How would that happen without a simultaneous huge shift among decideds? How would you prove it happened?

Not an expert but I would imagine Clinton being an exceedingly unpopular candidate even with her own supporters, and being favoured heavily to win anyway, might have had substantial problems turning out her own "committed" voters.

So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?

I think Hillary Clinton was/is disliked for similar reasons to Meghan Markle - arrogance, entitlement and hypocrisy which they both blamed on sexism and racism, respectively, which only infuriated people more.

I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.

It's the rage these days to talk about Clinton was a uniquely dislikeable candidate but what gets missed in that analysis is that she also was boosted by the fact that she would have been the first female President. That certainly helped whip up some enthusiasm.

But, did that boost her where that counted or only amongst the Democratic base?

I must admit I always raise an eyebrow on identity being a driver of voting. If the candidate - or their campaign team - needs to invoke that argument then in my mind it's a sign of the weakness of the candidate.

You didn't get Theresa May doing it, although she did troll Labour with it, and certainly not Mrs. Thatcher - who'd never have dreamt of it.

I think it helped on some of the turnout / independent women voters but hard to say as I couldn't really find much polling about the effect.

Personally, and it is why I think Biden has less of a chance than many do on here, Clinton's biggest problem was that she was seen as emblematic of a policy that had hurt many Americans (i.e. free trade / jobs going abroad) than anything else. I don't buy the "she was arrogant etc" line, the same could easily have been said (and more) about Trump. I do think her "deplorables"" comment did hit her.

PS Just been going back through the 2016 polls. What's noticeable is that Trump had far more leads in September than October and that Clinton's poll advantages really started to come down from the last week in October but before the Comey letter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

OldKingCole

Morning everyone. I'm not sure that the statement History repeats itself twice is always true, and anyway that this is 1948 all over again applies here. Trump has his enthusiasts but he also has a lot of disenchanted one-time supporters, and his in the middle of a 'war' which many perceive him as losing. Truman was still the guy who ended WWII, and, as Mr RB points out, who had the Berlin Airlift going, which was supposed to have failed within a few days.

Can I also put in a small thought on Ms Cyclefree's piece yesterday. Last May we were told that Cummings trip North would soon be forgotten; it's quite noticeable that it hasn't been, and 'them and us' seems to be alive and kicking.

SouthamObserver

Yep, I cannot shake off the feeling that Trump is going to find a way to win.

CorrectHorseBattery

nichomar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

Probably, they shouldn’t be allowed to compete in female events unless they are biologically female there is no rational argument to allow trans people to take part if they are biological males.

This issue which seems to get brought up as hugely significant when it really isn't is eerily familiar to the debate we had about gay rights, where it was thought legalising gay acts would lead to the corruption of children

Sandpit

eek said:

I'm hearing a rumour that NHS Supply Chain have run out of PPE equipment and are telling trusts to find their own.

That's really not good.

I mean, talking about PPE equipment is like talking about ATM machines, UFO objects and TLA acronyms

HYUFD

IshmaelZ said:

I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.

Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=20

Mysticrose

Instead of these speculative and usually ill-informed threads (Mike isn't one of them) PLEASE could we have some threads on individuals state and senate battles? There are some wonderful battlegrounds taking place and they make for exciting betting opportunities.

Here's just one example: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/joni-ernst-soybean-debate-iowa-senate/index.html


p.s. and no there's no need to be jittery. No there isn't a shy Trump vote. And yes Biden is going to win big.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318422558849585153?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425166385451008?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318424604776517633?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318423674131779586?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425594628026368?s=20

Benpointer

nichomar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

Probably, they shouldn’t be allowed to compete in female events unless they are biologically female there is no rational argument to allow trans people to take part if they are biological males.

Agreed. We should support trans people in every way we can but female sport is an area where an unfair advantage has to be controlled.

Perhaps there could be paralympic classes for trans people to compete in?

CarlottaVance

nichomar said:

CarlottaVance said:

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Makes sense:

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21

I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....

The right trying to kick off the culture wars again. Its just a fringe social media issue, apart from the rights objection to it being discussed. Happy for sports to take whatever view they think right if they have considered the complicated issues carefully.

Tell JK Rowling that....

You’re sure it’s “the right”‘s Culture War?

https://twitter.com/pinknews/status/1315924483421552640?s=21

Ridiculous that they even thought they could play someone is taking the piss.

Trans women already play in English Rugby and the Olympics allows them to compete in women's categories....

Trans women competitors have enjoyed success in sports including weightlifting, cycling and athletics. Yet World Rugby’s decision to exclude them was the right one. Other sports should follow its lead.

CorrectHorseBattery

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.

Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=20

Do you at least acknowledge that this election was won fair and square even if you don't like the result?

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318344895980064768?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318422196033912832?s=20

Mysticrose

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, I cannot shake off the feeling that Trump is going to find a way to win.

Well unless you want to lose money I suggest you do shake it off. He isn't going to win. The die is cast.

The real question is the size of Biden's victory.

HYUFD

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

IshmaelZ said:

I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.

Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=20

Do you at least acknowledge that this election was won fair and square even if you don't like the result?

I am not Bolivian I have no direct interest in the election, if the Bolivian authorities say it is free and fair then it is free and fair

nichomar

CorrectHorseBattery said:

nichomar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

Probably, they shouldn’t be allowed to compete in female events unless they are biologically female there is no rational argument to allow trans people to take part if they are biological males.

This issue which seems to get brought up as hugely significant when it really isn't is eerily familiar to the debate we had about gay rights, where it was thought legalising gay acts would lead to the corruption of children

It’s nothing like that it’s just logic if the sport is segregated then you can only compete if you are of the right biological gender, for everything else it’s up to them.

Dura_Ace

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

There are no transwomen competing at pro (WT/Pro Conti/Conti) level.

If you want to stoke the flames of the culture war start with Mx Claus. That should get some traction.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318422558849585153?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425166385451008?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318424604776517633?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318423674131779586?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425594628026368?s=20

That's a solid set of polls for Biden but how good is SurveyMonkey? I note that 538 rate them D-

Metatron

Be interesting if someone tried to poll the white and Asian voters by their nationality i.e Irish ,Italian,Scandanavian,East European, etc and Chinese,Japanese,Korean ,Vietnamese etc.
I have social contacts with the small Latvian community in the USA and they are all voting for Trump.

CorrectHorseBattery

nichomar said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

nichomar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nichomar, isn't there some anger by female cyclists at trans cyclists consistently beating them?

Probably, they shouldn’t be allowed to compete in female events unless they are biologically female there is no rational argument to allow trans people to take part if they are biological males.

This issue which seems to get brought up as hugely significant when it really isn't is eerily familiar to the debate we had about gay rights, where it was thought legalising gay acts would lead to the corruption of children

It’s nothing like that it’s just logic if the sport is segregated then you can only compete if you are of the right biological gender, for everything else it’s up to them.

No I wasn't clear, I'm not saying it's not an issue, I am saying it's brought up as a massive issue and used to beat the LGBTQ+ community with when it's not a big issue at all in the grand scheme of things. Nobody is actually talking about this on a large scale.

That's what I meant by it being eerily similar, small issues that definitely did occur, were brought up to undermine the entire movement.

TheWhiteRabbit

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318422558849585153?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425166385451008?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318424604776517633?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318423674131779586?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425594628026368?s=20

That's a solid set of polls for Biden but how good is SurveyMonkey? I note that 538 rate them D-

They do much less weighting, hence the rating.

But the trend is helpful, and the trend is that there isn't one.