The Conservative Party has effectively been taken over by a radical faction aligned with UKIP/Brexit Party, engineered by Cummings and Johnson. It is now a nativist English populist party. It no longer has the values of the Conservative Party of yore because, for good or ill, it is no longer that party.
Certainly in terms of the membership BigG and PT are the ones out of step. The membership seems pretty aligned with UKIP/BXP rather than One Nation Conservatism.
Yet according to the latest ConHome survey Boris is now at a -10.3% rating compared to +81.5% for Rishi Sunak
Enjoyed the thread header, RB. Thank you. I know they are not easy to write and you expose yourself to flack so all thanks are well-deserved, and that goes for other thread-writers too.
It's always interesting to hear contrarian views but your man rather undermines his own case when he speaks of Trump having a 10% chance. As a number of posters have pointed out, that's about the same ballpark as the major models around, such as 538 and The Economist.
There has been less comment on his shy-Trumper remark, despite the fact he seems to be well off the pace here too. The topic has been much analysed since the polling 'failure' of 2016. I have read two very good articles on it. One was by a highly rated polling firm (Emerson, or maybe Monmouth?) and the other was the Kennedy report into how the pollsters performed generally. Both are worth a read but they're long. The executive summary is:
* Shy-Trumpers do exist. They are mostly to be found in higher income groups, especially amongst segments of the population which are generally thought to be strongly Democrat. (Think middle to upper range executives in big firms in Democrat-voting States.)
* The number is not great - possibly enough to be noticeable at district level but unlikely to be enough to turn a whole State, especially as they have to be netted off against....
* Shy Biden voters: these are the STs mirror image. (Think construction site workers who consider it unwise to let their peers know they think Trump is a schmuck.)
The reports also looked at the related question of under-weighting of low education voters in the samples. This was probably the biggest contributor to the 'fail'. Most decent polling organisations have adjusted for this now, which is not to say that another unforeseen probem may arise, or that it won't cut the other way this time and overestimate Trump's vote. Nobody knows. When you are dealing with humans, anything can happen (which I kind of like and find reassuring.)
Your man is no doubt an excellent historian and I envy you having the opportunity to listen to him, but his knowledge of polls and polling seems to be a little on the thin side. I'd certainly back a number of PB posters against him. In fact, I kind of have.
Big thank you to Hyufd for reporting the latest polls. He really is much prompter (and more accurate!) than RCP, which has degenerated sadly over the years.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
And bye bye Thatcherite free market too then
Yes quite possibly. Off the back of Covid I think we're going to have our first proper socialist government since the 1970s.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Boris is just about Brexit - nothing more. Why TF do you want him to wait until he does the thing you don't want him to do?
Getting rid of the Supreme Governor from any role in public is the logical next step.
Absolutely not on either front, the Tory Party is the party of the monarchy and Anglican Church before all else.
The Bishops are entitled to their view on the internal markets bill as long as they also reflect on the fact that most of their congregation, even if not all, voted for Brexit and voted for the Tories.
Baker is an evangelical Christian anyway not a mainline Anglican
The pre Reformation Tory Party maybe.
The modern party is not at all. Get into the 20th century, the rest of us are in the 21st already.
You are a free market liberal hard Brexiteer not a Tory, you voted for Blair and for Farage which just proves the point
Look HYUFD
Just who do you think you are deciding who is a conservative on here.
Thankfully most of us reject your idiotic views and dogma and represent the real centre of the party
Indeed, I could say to you that you are not a conservative, just a kipper in disguise, though I think even Farage would draw the line at sending troops to beat down the good folk of Scotland
Well said.
The thing that HYUFD seems blissfully ignorant of is that the 17th century Tory Party of gentry and church died hundreds of years ago. The Conservative Party dates back to 1834 and is not the Party he is talking about.
Until very recently, it was both. The David Horton character in the Vicar of Dibley was and is a recognisable archetype. Yes it was a sitcom, but the archetype represented something recognisable because it was real.
The clue is in the name "Conservative", keen (if possible) on conserving things. Incremental reforms where they were needed. Threatening to abolish institutions because they say things that are disagreeable to you isn't conservative.
Dominic Cummings isn't a Conservative. Not a member of the party, doesn't buy its ideas. He gives every sign of being a nihilist, in fact, although that may be to mistake empty-headedness for wilful destruction.
When the dust has settled, someone needs to work out how and why the Conservative party has let someone who is so far from its vision come in and take over. Its as if a host has not just accepted a parasite, but welcomed it in an let it take root in its brain.
OK he can run a successful campaign, but the party has never let oiks like that near the actual levers of power before.
I posted the idea of Cummings being a parasite a few weeks ago. He is a flea who has found a dog to get him into a warm house.
Perhaps, as Frum said of Trump, “when this is all over, no one will admit to having supported it.”
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
HYUFD is a blue Corbynite. Only true believers in his hardcore extreme are real Conservatives in his eyes.
Big G is a proper mainstream Conservative and thus a traitor to the Blue Corbynites.
Both voted Remain, so neither are hardcore extreme right wingers. No, I sense we are looking at the "narcissism of small differences" here.
Guys, that is an appropriate learned phrase, I am NOT calling either of you a narcissist.
Enjoyed the thread header, RB. Thank you. I know they are not easy to write and you expose yourself to flack so all thanks are well-deserved, and that goes for other thread-writers too.
It's always interesting to hear contrarian views but your man rather undermines his own case when he speaks of Trump having a 10% chance. As a number of posters have pointed out, that's about the same ballpark as the major models around, such as 538 and The Economist.
There has been less comment on his shy-Trumper remark, despite the fact he seems to be well off the pace here too. The topic has been much analysed since the polling 'failure' of 2016. I have read two very good articles on it. One was by a highly rated polling firm (Emerson, or maybe Monmouth?) and the other was the Kennedy report into how the pollsters performed generally. Both are worth a read but they're long. The executive summary is:
* Shy-Trumpers do exist. They are mostly to be found in higher income groups, especially amongst segments of the population which are generally thought to be strongly Democrat. (Think middle to upper range executives in big firms in Democrat-voting States.)
* The number is not great - possibly enough to be noticeable at district level but unlikely to be enough to turn a whole State, especially as they have to be netted off against....
* Shy Biden voters: these are the STs mirror image. (Think construction site workers who consider it unwise to let their peers know they think Trump is a schmuck.)
The reports also looked at the related question of under-weighting of low education voters in the samples. This was probably the biggest contributor to the 'fail'. Most decent polling organisations have adjusted for this now, which is not to say that another unforeseen probem may arise, or that it won't cut the other way this time and overestimate Trump's vote. Nobody knows. When you are dealing with humans, anything can happen (which I kind of like and find reassuring.)
Your man is no doubt an excellent historian and I envy you having the opportunity to listen to him, but his knowledge of polls and polling seems to be a little on the thin side. I'd certainly back a number of PB posters against him. In fact, I kind of have.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
HYUFD is a blue Corbynite. Only true believers in his hardcore extreme are real Conservatives in his eyes.
Big G is a proper mainstream Conservative and thus a traitor to the Blue Corbynites.
Both voted Remain, so neither are hardcore extreme right wingers. No, I sense we are looking at the "narcissism of small differences" here.
Guys, that is an appropriate learned phrase, I am NOT calling either of you a narcissist.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Boris is just about Brexit - nothing more. Why TF do you want him to wait until he does the thing you don't want him to do?
It does not matter what I want, Boris will be PM on the 1st January 2021 unless his health fails
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
Boris is investing heavily in a vaccine. When the Covid survivors rub their bleary eyes in the dawn of 2022, they will thank the Johnson for deliverance.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Boris is just about Brexit - nothing more. Why TF do you want him to wait until he does the thing you don't want him to do?
It does not matter what I want, Boris will be PM on the 1st January 2021 unless his health fails
If it doesn't matter what you want then stop telling us what you want.
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
And bye bye Thatcherite free market too then
Yes quite possibly. Off the back of Covid I think we're going to have our first proper socialist government since the 1970s.
What goes around comes around...
If you can put aside the human tragedy for a moment it is all rather fascinating and intriguing.
Keynes despaired of implementing successful socialist policies under anything other than war-time conditions. By this I think he meant that all the really big important things that needed to be done could only be implemented through a command economy.
Isn't this exactly the kind of economy we are starting to see now? Could it really result in a long-term trend away from investment in non-essentials and a massive increase for health, education and essential services?
And what a good thing (Brexit aside) that the Tories won the last election! No left-wing government would have dared to try and implement the measures we have seen since lockdown.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
He is not a leader. He is a polemicist and after dinner speaker. He go back to what he is good at.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Boris is just about Brexit - nothing more. Why TF do you want him to wait until he does the thing you don't want him to do?
It does not matter what I want, Boris will be PM on the 1st January 2021 unless his health fails
If it doesn't matter what you want then stop telling us what you want.
I will comment as I wish and if you do not agree I really am not bothered
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
And bye bye Thatcherite free market too then
Yes quite possibly. Off the back of Covid I think we're going to have our first proper socialist government since the 1970s.
What goes around comes around...
If you can put aside the human tragedy for a moment it is all rather fascinating and intriguing.
Yes. British politics has been generally fascinating and hyper since 2008 and it continues...
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
He is not a leader. He is a polemicist and after dinner speaker. He go back to what he is good at.
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
Boris is investing heavily in a vaccine. When the Covid survivors rub their bleary eyes in the dawn of 2022, they will thank the Johnson for deliverance.
Horrible thoughts of worshipping a lingam, and draping flower garlands over it ... please not!
Everything @HYUFD writes should be seen through the prism of him seeking office.
He is Hazel Blears in trousers, to use a @HYUFD-ism, and indeed just about all politicians, who unflinchingly support the party they support.
Look at our very own @NickPalmer as an example - supported both Blair and Corbyn.
At the selection committees he will be able to point to (or others will trawl through) his PB posting history with no fear of what may be found.
It is a credit to him that he wants to be a participant rather than a commentator.
No fear of his urging the invasion of Spain, or sending of tanks into Scotland? That would certainly show the direction in which he thinkjs his party is going.
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
And bye bye Thatcherite free market too then
Yes quite possibly. Off the back of Covid I think we're going to have our first proper socialist government since the 1970s.
What goes around comes around...
Starmer has said his favourite PM and Labour leader was Harold Wilson after all
The Conservative Party has effectively been taken over by a radical faction aligned with UKIP/Brexit Party, engineered by Cummings and Johnson. It is now a nativist English populist party. It no longer has the values of the Conservative Party of yore because, for good or ill, it is no longer that party.
Certainly in terms of the membership BigG and PT are the ones out of step. The membership seems pretty aligned with UKIP/BXP rather than One Nation Conservatism.
It is why I resigned my membership. There was a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party by a parasite.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Boris is just about Brexit - nothing more. Why TF do you want him to wait until he does the thing you don't want him to do?
It does not matter what I want, Boris will be PM on the 1st January 2021 unless his health fails
If it doesn't matter what you want then stop telling us what you want.
I will comment as I wish and if you do not agree I really am not bothered
LOL
Big G: "Boris has lost me and I want a change." Also Big G: "It does not matter what I want."
Democrats still outperforming Republicans in turnout but ethnicity splits seem to match the registered voting population.
For the Democrats, it looks like they are matching the Republicans in suburban county voters registrations, which Trump won 60-40 in 2016 (and they are winning in Rural County voters so far). As Bitzer says, one to watch.
For the Republicans, they will presumably happy that about the following observation:
"So far, the average age of NC's early voters is 57 years old, compared to 48 years old within the registered voter pool. By generation cohorts, Boomers have a plurality of the ballots cast (44 percent), while voters under the age of 40 (Millennials and Generation Z) are one out of five. The two youngest generations, however, are 36 percent of the total voter registration pool, so it will be key to watch and see if they 'punch up to their political weight' as we get closer to November 3. "
(worth remembering, in NC, a good number of older voters may be registered as Democrats due to historical issues but are very likely to vote Republican)
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
I am not pro Trump, I just think he could still narrowly win the EC
That's not a terribly radical view, Hyufd. I think he could just lose it, so we differ by about one medium sized State. Of course I also think he could lose bigly - say by about 400/138 - which is a view you don't convey. But then you don't have to.
Everything @HYUFD writes should be seen through the prism of him seeking office.
He is Hazel Blears in trousers, to use a @HYUFD-ism, and indeed just about all politicians, who unflinchingly support the party they support.
Look at our very own @NickPalmer as an example - supported both Blair and Corbyn.
At the selection committees he will be able to point to (or others will trawl through) his PB posting history with no fear of what may be found.
It is a credit to him that he wants to be a participant rather than a commentator.
No fear of his urging the invasion of Spain, or sending of tanks into Scotland? That would certainly show the direction in which he thinkjs his party is going.
I have never urged the invasion of Spain, I have urged the defence of Gibraltar which is a different matter.
Even Boris has said he will block indyref2 as indyref1 was a 'once in a generation' vote
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
And bye bye Thatcherite free market too then
Yes quite possibly. Off the back of Covid I think we're going to have our first proper socialist government since the 1970s.
What goes around comes around...
Starmer has said his favourite PM and Labour leader was Harold Wilson after all
The Conservative Party has effectively been taken over by a radical faction aligned with UKIP/Brexit Party, engineered by Cummings and Johnson. It is now a nativist English populist party. It no longer has the values of the Conservative Party of yore because, for good or ill, it is no longer that party.
Certainly in terms of the membership BigG and PT are the ones out of step. The membership seems pretty aligned with UKIP/BXP rather than One Nation Conservatism.
Yet according to the latest ConHome survey Boris is now at a -10.3% rating compared to +81.5% for Rishi Sunak
Probably because they finally have realised Boris is an empty suit, and they think Rishi is better. Not sure he is a vast improvement myself - my instinct is he is a bit of lightweight, but when the competition is crap it is the opportunity to grow and shine! If he can steer the Conservative Party away from being a far right Brexit-Lite party back to a more One Nation party I'll give him benefit of the doubt.
Whether Trump manages to stagger over the line I think Covid is generally going to be terrible news for incumbents and the 2020's will see a big shift to the left generally (of course there will be a few places that buck this trend)
Bye bye Boris and Tories in 2024 lol!
And bye bye Thatcherite free market too then
Yes quite possibly. Off the back of Covid I think we're going to have our first proper socialist government since the 1970s.
What goes around comes around...
Starmer has said his favourite PM and Labour leader was Harold Wilson after all
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Johnson has achieved Brexit we left in January 2020. Why you and others keep going on about it god only knows. Most people have moved on, if the trade agreement causes problems people might be upset. However most will not give a toss as they will have other concerns.
The Conservative Party has effectively been taken over by a radical faction aligned with UKIP/Brexit Party, engineered by Cummings and Johnson. It is now a nativist English populist party. It no longer has the values of the Conservative Party of yore because, for good or ill, it is no longer that party.
Certainly in terms of the membership BigG and PT are the ones out of step. The membership seems pretty aligned with UKIP/BXP rather than One Nation Conservatism.
Yet according to the latest ConHome survey Boris is now at a -10.3% rating compared to +81.5% for Rishi Sunak
Probably because they finally have realised Boris is an empty suit, and they think Rishi is better. Not sure he is a vast improvement myself - my instinct is he is a bit of lightweight, but when the competition is crap it is the opportunity to grow and shine! If he can steer the Conservative Party away from being a far right Brexit-Lite party back to a more One Nation party I'll give him benefit of the doubt.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Johnson has achieved Brexit we left in January 2020. Why you and others keep going on about it god only knows. Most people have moved on, if the trade agreement causes problems people might be upset. However most will not give a toss as they will have other concerns.
Er, if you are interested in politics it is difficult to move on from the fact that our PM is clearly not up to the job.
Big thank you to Hyufd for reporting the latest polls. He really is much prompter (and more accurate!) than RCP, which has degenerated sadly over the years.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.
538 is the best for polls. More comprehensive and more up to date than RCP
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
@isam keeps on pointing out that there is a bigger financial incentive to go to Tier 3 vs Tier 2 (if I have understood it correctly) and it would be dangerous for the idea to gain traction that councils are asking for harsher lockdowns because they get more money (when the costs of unemployment, etc for example would be paid for by central government).
That Burnham is resisting either disproves this or shows that he wants a bigger bonus.
To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.
Pretty sure there aren't shy anythings on this site, yourself included. Otoh the lads who 4 years ago were crowing about owning the libs seem somewhat abashed, though they now seem to be pouring their energies into telling all and sundry what a terrible candidate Biden is, as bad as Trump IF yOu REelY THiNk AbouT iT.
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
The Conservative Party has effectively been taken over by a radical faction aligned with UKIP/Brexit Party, engineered by Cummings and Johnson. It is now a nativist English populist party. It no longer has the values of the Conservative Party of yore because, for good or ill, it is no longer that party.
Certainly in terms of the membership BigG and PT are the ones out of step. The membership seems pretty aligned with UKIP/BXP rather than One Nation Conservatism.
Yet according to the latest ConHome survey Boris is now at a -10.3% rating compared to +81.5% for Rishi Sunak
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
@isam keeps on pointing out that there is a bigger financial incentive to go to Tier 3 vs Tier 2 (if I have understood it correctly) and it would be dangerous for the idea to gain traction that councils are asking for harsher lockdowns because they get more money (when the costs of unemployment, etc for example would be paid for by central government).
That Burnham is resisting either disproves this or shows that he wants a bigger bonus.
Or possibly that he believes in what he saying? Not always impossible in a politician...well in the old days perhaps!
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
@isam keeps on pointing out that there is a bigger financial incentive to go to Tier 3 vs Tier 2 (if I have understood it correctly) and it would be dangerous for the idea to gain traction that councils are asking for harsher lockdowns because they get more money (when the costs of unemployment, etc for example would be paid for by central government).
That Burnham is resisting either disproves this or shows that he wants a bigger bonus.
Or possibly that he believes in what he saying? Not always impossible in a politician...well in the old days perhaps!
For once you and I are on the same page. All the local Tory MPs are saying the same thing too.
Prevarication over this isn't saving any money. Pay the full 80% and get on with it ... A national lockdown would cost an order of magnitude more.
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
The Conservative Party has effectively been taken over by a radical faction aligned with UKIP/Brexit Party, engineered by Cummings and Johnson. It is now a nativist English populist party. It no longer has the values of the Conservative Party of yore because, for good or ill, it is no longer that party.
Certainly in terms of the membership BigG and PT are the ones out of step. The membership seems pretty aligned with UKIP/BXP rather than One Nation Conservatism.
Yet according to the latest ConHome survey Boris is now at a -10.3% rating compared to +81.5% for Rishi Sunak
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
Those figures are not correct
The 22 million is in addition to the £8 per head making the package over 50 millon
I wish we had paid more attention to Bolivia 2020 - seems to have been a stunningly unexpected result. Proving it is a year for left wing landslides, one hopes.
Corbyn certainly noticed, though the Bolivian result was partly a reaction against the police and military pressure that forced former leftwing President Morales into exile after last year's indecisive election, the newly elected President Luis Arce is a Morales ally and he will therefore now likely return from exile. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=20
Do you at least acknowledge that this election was won fair and square even if you don't like the result?
I suspect that's why there's not been much discussion of it...
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
You just got up? 🤣🤣
No. Been busy. Do you need to be rude and personal every time, stop being a stalker.
This decision isn't about what colour to paint the walls, you have to be decisive one way or another.
Every area on the verge of T3, we can't have a week of negotiations. If your plan is based on local lockdowns, as soon as an area is identified as problematic, there has already been a significant upturn that testing is just picking up, so you need to take action within a day or two.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Interesting view of the American suburban marriage there!
Here is a good example of why Trump is going to be hammered. The biggest mistake I made in 2019 was not watching inside Labour. If you want to know how things are going, look deep inside the party, watch and listen.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
You just got up? 🤣🤣
No. Been busy. Do you need to be rude and personal every time, stop being a stalker.
You will be pleased to know that I reserve all my rudeness for you darling, with the certainty that when I am here you will always be on with your absurd and uninformed far right views. If you were never rude to others I would feel bad about it, but you know it ain't the case.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
All the flapping over Cornish pasties and it is shit like this that the UK have been failing out for 6 months now.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Interesting view of the American suburban marriage there!
"A New York Times/Siena College poll out today found that Biden is leading Trump by nine percentage points among likely voters nationwide. The former vice president held a 23-point advantage over Trump among women, while trailing by six points among men."
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.
Anybody who claims well we should be more like the Asian countries, do they think people in the UK would accept this?
If explained clearly from the outset, that it was the best possible path not only to saving lives but to saving your jobs (look at China) ... then yes.
But Johnson never had any grip on the facts, dithered, issued conflicting and contradictory twaddle, never censured his svengali ... must I go on?
There is, of course, an alternative or complimentary route to 'Asia's' approach and it was New Zealand's. Seal the borders and then you can live free. You just can't travel abroad and no one can come in. 14 day mandatory quarantine. I have friends on South Island who haven't had to wear a mask in months and don't have to think about the virus.
One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.
Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.
Defunding the police isn't Biden policy, is there polling evidence that black voters think it is?
I think it's the fear that that sort of sentiment comes with the broader Democratic ticket and could trickle down to affect them at local level.
That seems like a very strained explanation for Trump's support holding up among black people, when there are non-strained explanations like voters rating Trump on the economy.
Why wouldn't that be a factor? Security drives voting behaviour as much as money does - which is really just another form of security:
"Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same."
The claim you mentioned isn't part of what you quoted. It's a hobby-horse of conservative pundits, that completely failed to shift the polls when they said it would. And we're talking about a policy the candidate doesn't have. So I think it needs some kind of evidence, otherwise the default assumption should be that it's a conservative pundit on his hobby-horse again.
Andrew Sullivan isn't a conservative pundit.
Andrew Sullivan backed McCain in the primaries and George W Bush in the general election in 2000 but shifted to Kerry in 2004 and has backed the Democrats ever since, he is basically a John McCain Republican
Yes, that's fair enough. EiT doesn't like conservatives and is very dismissive of their arguments and opinions.
I see @Big_G_NorthWales and @HYUFD are at daggers drawn yet again. How can this be when both are rock solid true blue Conservative loyalists? Is it indicative of something rotten in the state of Tory?
I will always reject HYUFD narrow view and look to a moderate position
Indeed as HYUFD keeps saying I am not a conservative as I voted for Blair (twice) but he misses the point that sometimes a party needs time in opposition and on that subject I am not at all certain who I will support at GE 2024
Of course labour are not in a position as yet to tempt me, not least that they still have Corbyn and his cabal as members, but I have no idea what their policies are for the future, how they would address the debt, and how pro business they are
Outside of Independence which I strongly oppose, Nicola Sturgeon is a very good role model for labour
These are and will continue to be very strange times
HYUFD does what the right wing always do. Thy attach themselves to leaders rather than ideas which is why he's now gone from Remainer to Leaver; from Cameron to Johnson and seamlessly to Trump because he reminds him of Johnson.
Rather like you do if slightly less so.
Boris has lost me and I want a change post brexit
He is not the leader for these times
Johnson has achieved Brexit we left in January 2020. Why you and others keep going on about it god only knows. Most people have moved on, if the trade agreement causes problems people might be upset. However most will not give a toss as they will have other concerns.
Er, if you are interested in politics it is difficult to move on from the fact that our PM is clearly not up to the job.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
This decision isn't about what colour to paint the walls, you have to be decisive one way or another.
Good job we have Bozo in charge, if only he could link the decision to Brexit somehow he would know which way to go.
Interesting that the only really decisive decision of note he has ever taken was to decide to pretend to believe in something that even his own family doubt that he does.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.
The concept makes me laugh. Trump voters I have met tend to be anything but shy. In fact they usually harangue you at every opportunity, poking their stubby fingers into your chest while they bellow at you from six inches "...and anything thing, bud!"
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.
It's crap. There's no shy Trump vote out there. There's no 1948 redux. The polls are, if anything, underestimating the Biden share.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Interesting view of the American suburban marriage there!
"A New York Times/Siena College poll out today found that Biden is leading Trump by nine percentage points among likely voters nationwide. The former vice president held a 23-point advantage over Trump among women, while trailing by six points among men."
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.
Anybody who claims well we should be more like the Asian countries, do they think people in the UK would accept this?
If explained clearly from the outset, that it was the best possible path not only to saving lives but to saving your jobs (look at China) ... then yes.
But Johnson never had any grip on the facts, dithered, issued conflicting and contradictory twaddle, never censured his svengali ... must I go on?
There is, of course, an alternative or complimentary route to 'Asia's' approach and it was New Zealand's. Seal the borders and then you can live free. You just can't travel abroad and no one can come in. 14 day mandatory quarantine. I have friends on South Island who haven't had to wear a mask in months and don't have to think about the virus.
I disagree OGA, those restrictive measures would never have flown in the UK. We simply don't roll like that.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.
It's crap. There's no shy Trump vote out there. There's no 1948 redux. The polls are, if anything, underestimating the Biden share.
Landslide.
I agree. I'm suggesting there is a shy Biden vote (suburban wives of strident Trump husbands) - not a shy Trump vote.
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
You just got up? 🤣🤣
No. Been busy. Do you need to be rude and personal every time, stop being a stalker.
You will be pleased to know that I reserve all my rudeness for you darling, with the certainty that when I am here you will always be on with your absurd and uninformed far right views. If you were never rude to others I would feel bad about it, but you know it ain't the case.
From your posting style and personality you exhibit on here I think that if it wasn't Brexit you were very angry about it would be something else.
I've met your type in Conservative Clubs before - everyone edges away to the other end of the bar when they see them arrive.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
Look, we had Corbyn last year so there was no choice. But it was pretty obvious from the outset that these people, under this PM were not remotely fit to govern. In normal times, let alone now.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.
The concept makes me laugh. Trump voters I have met tend to be anything but shy. In fact they usually harangue you at every opportunity, poking their stubby fingers into your chest while they bellow at you from six inches "...and anything thing, bud!"
Imagine their poor wives if they are Biden supporters - and many will be.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'
Carrie doesn't play the violin so I'm not sure that's true.
£22m. £8 per head. GM not happy. Crucially Tory MP for Bury South has sounded off against HMG. Ball with Boris it seems. Expect decision in...
Compared to the billions spent through COVID and what would be required if a national lockdown were put in place these really are relatively small sums.
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
You just got up? 🤣🤣
No. Been busy. Do you need to be rude and personal every time, stop being a stalker.
You will be pleased to know that I reserve all my rudeness for you darling, with the certainty that when I am here you will always be on with your absurd and uninformed far right views. If you were never rude to others I would feel bad about it, but you know it ain't the case.
Philip is very rarely rude to anyone.
I think he can be a little pedantic and dogmatic in pursuing an argument at times, and that can be a little tiring, but he's never been anything but polite to me.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
I'd better keep quiet about the details but I have relatives who arrived from North America a while back and were supposed to quarantine but I strongly suspect they happily trolled around London visiting all the usual tourist spots. They were certaainly not subjected to any kind of checking.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Definitely more shy Bidens. If a Trumpster fesses up in polite company they get a rollicking. If a lefty Joe supporter starts dissing their orange hued hero in front of a few of the "base" he or she runs the risk of far worse. Easy to imagine them being shot with a rifle or powerful handgun. You do the math. No, everything points to the polls being wrong the other way this time. Surge of people power. Silent majority about to speak. I quite like the 2.2 on Biden getting over 75m votes.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'
Carrie doesn't play the violin so I'm not sure that's true.
Now I'm puzzled. Are you saying that anyone who doesn't play the violin is clueless? Because if so that would include me.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Why are they "shy" with online polls though? Do they think yougov are going to call up their husband and say, you wont believe this but your wife is a closet Trump/Biden fan?
I think most won't be shy but some will be. It's the psychology of possessing a dangerous secret.
It's crap. There's no shy Trump vote out there. There's no 1948 redux. The polls are, if anything, underestimating the Biden share.
Landslide.
I agree. I'm suggesting there is a shy Biden vote (suburban wives of strident Trump husbands) - not a shy Trump vote.
In 1948 there wasn't a shy vote, hidden away, in the way we think might happen this time. If I recall correctly, 10% of the public swung to Truman at the last minute.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'
Carrie doesn't play the violin so I'm not sure that's true.
Now I'm puzzled. Are you saying that anyone who doesn't play the violin is clueless? Because if so that would include me.
I suspect there are many white suburban women who support Biden but who dare not tell their Trump supporting husbands. Some may not dare to tell pollsters either. It's secret between them and the ballot box.
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
Definitely more shy Bidens. If a Trumpster fesses up in polite company they get a rollicking. If a lefty Joe supporter starts dissing their orange hued hero in front of a few of the "base" he or she runs the risk of far worse. Easy to imagine them being shot with a rifle or powerful handgun. You do the math. No, everything points to the polls being wrong the other way this time. Surge of people power. Silent majority about to speak. I quite like the 2.2 on Biden getting over 75m votes.
Let's be honest, we are all guessing here, myself included. We will see on November 3rd and beyond
Nicola is to introduce tiering in Scotland subject to MSPs approval with effect from 2nd November
Is she calling it Tiers or will it be called Layers or basically any other word than Tier....just like FACTS, that nobody can remember what it actually stands for, so they have to spell it out every time, rather than just use hands, face, space.
Can someone go and find that massive c*** Grant Shapps and ask him why if Heathrow has been able to implement pre-departure testing for flights out of London why the UK government doesn't insist on all arriving flights aren't subject to the same terms. No negative test, no boarding.
Well, you can ask, but surely someone of your intelligence isn't expecting a vaguely coherent answer?
Fair enough. I guess I'm just so exasperated with the poor quality of governance that we're being subjected to. We have a chancellor who is counting coppers, a PM who is literally fucking clueless, a transport secretary who seems to want to import new cases from overseas, a health secretary that doesn't understand that resolving self isolation adherence is the key to getting virus levels down.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
I would disagree with one minor point in that post.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'
Carrie doesn't play the violin so I'm not sure that's true.
Now I'm puzzled. Are you saying that anyone who doesn't play the violin is clueless? Because if so that would include me.
More a comment about the PM and violinists.
Well, that's a story that's passed me by. Sounds quite raunchy though. Which one of Jennifer, Petronella and the three he doesn't admit to were you referring to?
Nicola is to introduce tiering in Scotland subject to MSPs approval with effect from 2nd November
Is she calling it Tiers or will it be called Layers or basically any other word than Tier....just like FACTS, that nobody can remember what it actually stands for, so they have to spell it out every time, rather than just use hands, face, space.
Comments
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/10/our-cabinet-league-table-the-prime-minister-falls-into-negative-territory.html
If there's any flak flying please aim it at Niall Ferguson. I am merely the messenger
He is Hazel Blears in trousers, to use a @HYUFD-ism, and indeed just about all politicians, who unflinchingly support the party they support.
Look at our very own @NickPalmer as an example - supported both Blair and Corbyn.
At the selection committees he will be able to point to (or others will trawl through) his PB posting history with no fear of what may be found.
It is a credit to him that he wants to be a participant rather than a commentator.
These are the best polls for Biden for a little while. It was starting to look like Trump was effecting a mini-rally - back ahead in Ohio and Georgia, closing the gap in Pennsylvania etc. The figures from Rhesus Monkey will be reassuring for the Biden team, although they would prefer a more authoritative pollster. 538 grades them D- , which is not suggesting they are anything other than proper pollsters, but they do tend to adopt the old Kalashnikow method - 'spray and pray'.
He is not the leader for these times
What goes around comes around...
Good header! And I don't really care about US politics.
The central problem for Trump’s opponents is this: He wasn’t wrong.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/donald-trump-foreign-policy/616773/
Keynes despaired of implementing successful socialist policies under anything other than war-time conditions. By this I think he meant that all the really big important things that needed to be done could only be implemented through a command economy.
Isn't this exactly the kind of economy we are starting to see now? Could it really result in a long-term trend away from investment in non-essentials and a massive increase for health, education and essential services?
And what a good thing (Brexit aside) that the Tories won the last election! No left-wing government would have dared to try and implement the measures we have seen since lockdown.
4 mins to deadline?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/05/from-attlee-to-blair-what-starmer-can-learn-from-four-labour-leaders
Big G: "Boris has lost me and I want a change."
Also Big G: "It does not matter what I want."
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2020/10/nc-absentee-ballots-10-19-20-update.html#more
Democrats still outperforming Republicans in turnout but ethnicity splits seem to match the registered voting population.
For the Democrats, it looks like they are matching the Republicans in suburban county voters registrations, which Trump won 60-40 in 2016 (and they are winning in Rural County voters so far). As Bitzer says, one to watch.
For the Republicans, they will presumably happy that about the following observation:
"So far, the average age of NC's early voters is 57 years old, compared to 48 years old within the registered voter pool. By generation cohorts, Boomers have a plurality of the ballots cast (44 percent), while voters under the age of 40 (Millennials and Generation Z) are one out of five. The two youngest generations, however, are 36 percent of the total voter registration pool, so it will be key to watch and see if they 'punch up to their political weight' as we get closer to November 3. "
(worth remembering, in NC, a good number of older voters may be registered as Democrats due to historical issues but are very likely to vote Republican)
Ball with Boris it seems.
Expect decision in...
Even Boris has said he will block indyref2 as indyref1 was a 'once in a generation' vote
Why you and others keep going on about it god only knows.
Most people have moved on, if the trade agreement causes problems people might be upset.
However most will not give a toss as they will have other concerns.
That Burnham is resisting either disproves this or shows that he wants a bigger bonus.
Just pay the full amount and get on with it.
So they now prefer another Brexiteer rather than the one foisted on the country a few months back. What does that prove?
Unlike many states, it had a very good early tally last time round
The final early split was
Dem 1308011
GOP 1004341
Una 824738
3.14 million votes in.
So far the tallies are
Dem 708355
GOP 379640
Una 433498
With 1.52 million votes in.
Prevarication over this isn't saving any money. Pay the full 80% and get on with it ... A national lockdown would cost an order of magnitude more.
The 22 million is in addition to the £8 per head making the package over 50 millon
See here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54611402?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5f8ec48bc4548e02bf3cbaaa&Mastering the Manchester maths&2020-10-20T11:10:56.106Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a3623b93-a41e-42df-9d10-67ef4bfaac37&pinned_post_asset_id=5f8ec48bc4548e02bf3cbaaa&pinned_post_type=share
I think there are probably more shy Biden voters than shy Trump voters.
BBC News - Covid: Manchester in limbo as deal deadline passes
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54615574
This decision isn't about what colour to paint the walls, you have to be decisive one way or another.
Every area on the verge of T3, we can't have a week of negotiations. If your plan is based on local lockdowns, as soon as an area is identified as problematic, there has already been a significant upturn that testing is just picking up, so you need to take action within a day or two.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54613475
Trump is going down. Big time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/john-cornyn-texas-mj-hegar/index.html
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1316666252480319488?s=19
Anybody who claims well we should be more like the Asian countries, do they think people in the UK would accept this?
I'm a Conservative, not a radical.
There must be many "mixed marriages" out there.
But Johnson never had any grip on the facts, dithered, issued conflicting and contradictory twaddle, never censured his svengali ... must I go on?
There is, of course, an alternative or complimentary route to 'Asia's' approach and it was New Zealand's. Seal the borders and then you can live free. You just can't travel abroad and no one can come in. 14 day mandatory quarantine. I have friends on South Island who haven't had to wear a mask in months and don't have to think about the virus.
It's a huge blind spot of his.
All of them need to be sacked IMO, even Rishi who has fought hard for less restrictions but then not bothered to help the businesses and individuals who are caught in the tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions. We're talking about low hundreds of millions for a level of support that keeps these people in business and the jobs available for the spring.
Landslide.
Her name's 'Carrie,' not 'clueless.'
I've met your type in Conservative Clubs before - everyone edges away to the other end of the bar when they see them arrive.
I think he can be a little pedantic and dogmatic in pursuing an argument at times, and that can be a little tiring, but he's never been anything but polite to me.
https://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/hip-hop/9468837/50-cent-endorses-trump-2020-election