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Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history. – politicalbetting.com
Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history. – politicalbetting.com
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So I expect Biden to win but not enough to bet on it (especially given Betfair's rules).
Exhibit 1: John M. Barry the author of “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History.” has written this op-ed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/opinion/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
Exhibit 2: 4,400 scientists, researchers & healthcare professionals have now signed the John Snow Memorandum.
https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/
What’s Trump got to fall back on? How’s the wall coming along?
https://www.firstlinks.com.au/australias-default-part-1-a-primer
538 is currently saying 88% Biden.
https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1318455656135917569?s=21
I expect the usual thoughtful balanced response....
Rose Pro SL or Canyon Endurace AL 7.0 aren't bad bets if you must slum it. At that price absolutely avoid anything with OEM brand wheels - they are complete garbage. The Rose has DT Swiss and the Canyon has Fulcrum.
Is there anything from Specialized, to whom I have a vague and irrational brand loyalty?
1. There are large parts of America where it is just as bad to be a Democrat as it is in other parts to be a Trumpist. Shouldnt those pretty much balance each other out?
2. Why are they still shy on an online poll? If you were frustrated you couldnt publicly announce your support for Trump, wouldnt you be desperate to do so with the privacy of online?
He's not got involved in any shooting wars, has brought US troops back home from all around the world, has stood up to China in the trade arena, and was a key facilitator of the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Gulf States.
Heathrow is like CDG (but worse) for inter terminal transfers...
One of the most interesting insights I've read into the US election came from Andrew Sullivan last week.
Basically, you could be forgiven for thinking the traffic is all one way. But it isn't. Basically a lot of older white voters are turning to Biden out of fear of control of the virus whilst some Latinos and African-Americans are turning to Trump - the former because they don't like Woke condescension and the latter because poor black voters know what "defunding the police" in their neighbourhoods would really mean.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-the-germaphobe-president-afraid-of-coronavirus-
Submit a question about coronavirus (COVID-19) to be put to a minister. If your question is chosen, the minister will answer it during an event broadcast to the public.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/ask-a-minister-a-question-about-coronavirus
So more of the undecideds might still have voted for Clinton, but expected Clinton backers didnt vote at all?
CDG has its own special place in Hell, a collection of small airports but with with the long queues and no real facilities.
Ther worst surely has to be Leeds/Bradford - what a dump.
We haven't ever seen an election that feels like this one. The combination of factors includes: Shy Trumpers: the gap between the popular vote result and the EC system; neither candidate would be close to winning if things were 'normal' - they just are not presidential material but one of them has to win; the fact that the Supreme Court may end up deciding things; the sense that if Trump doesn't have something malign up his sleeve either before or after the vote (or both) it would be out of character.
Put them together and it's all like betting on the National or a game of crazy golf. It isn't priceable.
If a thing is not priceable you either stay out or back the one with the longest odds. Trump.
* If you have good judgment!
You’re sure it’s “the right”‘s Culture War?
https://twitter.com/pinknews/status/1315924483421552640?s=21
You can imagine the same in this country. Lifelong Conservatives repelled by Boris, and also voters who like Boris as prime minister but would not want him as our next king.
The paradox here is that if these so-called shy Trump voters are really shy abstentionists then it is Biden who is helped, not Trump.
Everyone had arrived and Easyjet decided it may as well try to get back to Newcastle early so we did.
The widow of a man who was killed when a lorry ploughed into his stationary car on a smart motorway has said the wrong person has been jailed.
Alexandru Murgeanu and Jason Mercer died when Prezemyslaw Szuba crashed into their vehicles on a section of the M1 without a hard shoulder.
As I understand it, Smart Motorways are a net benefit in terms of safety, but of course we never know about the lives saved.
What I haven't seen is evidence for shy Trump voters since that point. I'm not deeply plugged into US politics, so perhaps someone knows of such evidence?
I felt completely different about Barack Obama (who I would have voted for in 2008) to Hillary Clinton, and only became a bit disappointed with him later in office.
Just before lockdown I was travelling back from Schipol and had to run to the gate with a full winter coat and bags. I swear it was more than a mile.
By the time I got to the gate, my face was red, I was sweating and coughing. This was not a good look for a traveller in March! All eyes were on me as I went down the aisle of the plane.
Could have been worse mind, could have been Gatwick.
To all those derisive of the "Shy Trump" theory, 10 minutes on this site saying you would vote for Trump would soon give you plenty of reasons why someone may not say they want to vote for Trump.
Lefties are often shut down and abused on here but we continue to post our views, I am sure it's the same for Trump fans
"Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/amp/
Then again, a poll of this site would have Biden about 95% ahead.
Although I am also not making a prediction for the election, I bet somehow those who get it wrong won't get the kind of abuse I get though
In some respects 1948 looks like what the 2020 map could be in reverse, Truman won most of the south, Dewey swept the northeast and won the plains states and Dewey won Pennsylvania and Michigan but Truman won Wisconsin (though Truman also won every western state bar Oregon).
Comparisons could also be made between this election and 1968, then a genial though non Ivy League moderate Vice President Humphrey was up against a deeply divisive and hated Republican candidate in Nixon and Nixon won by an even closer margin than Truman did by 43.4% to 42.7% in what was the third closest election in the popular vote in postwar history after 2016 and 2000 (though 2004 and 1976 were slightly closer in the EC than 1968).
(Only joking @HYUFD, I know you have said plenty of times you would not vote for him)
One thing about Truman, his approval rating was measured as 39.6% then shot to 69% after the election. Since it wasn't measured for most of 1948 he was probably over 50% before the election. His average first term Gallup approval was ~ 55%, which wasn't terrible by (future !) historic standards.
Lowest re-elected average approval is Obama at 49.1, note Ford 47.2 and Carter 45.5 obviously failed in their bids. Trump's average approval looks by eye to be around 43% to me. Although HW's approval was actually very good for most of his presidency it was definitely in the 30s at the point we are at now in the cycle.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
I must admit I always raise an eyebrow on identity being a driver of voting. If the candidate - or their campaign team - needs to invoke that argument then in my mind it's a sign of the weakness of the candidate.
You didn't get Theresa May doing it, although she did troll Labour with it, and certainly not Mrs. Thatcher - who'd never have dreamt of it.
I just wish the betting markets would turn against him again so I can get better odds.
My pre-prepared consolation in the event of a Trump victory is that 2021 will be a lousy time to be President. That and the fact for all the bombast Trump doesn't actually do very much.
Personally, and it is why I think Biden has less of a chance than many do on here, Clinton's biggest problem was that she was seen as emblematic of a policy that had hurt many Americans (i.e. free trade / jobs going abroad) than anything else. I don't buy the "she was arrogant etc" line, the same could easily have been said (and more) about Trump. I do think her "deplorables"" comment did hit her.
PS Just been going back through the 2016 polls. What's noticeable is that Trump had far more leads in September than October and that Clinton's poll advantages really started to come down from the last week in October but before the Comey letter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election
Can I also put in a small thought on Ms Cyclefree's piece yesterday. Last May we were told that Cummings trip North would soon be forgotten; it's quite noticeable that it hasn't been, and 'them and us' seems to be alive and kicking.
I mean, talking about PPE equipment is like talking about ATM machines, UFO objects and TLA acronyms
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1317508179077586946?s=20
Here's just one example: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/politics/joni-ernst-soybean-debate-iowa-senate/index.html
p.s. and no there's no need to be jittery. No there isn't a shy Trump vote. And yes Biden is going to win big.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425166385451008?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318424604776517633?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318423674131779586?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318425594628026368?s=20
Perhaps there could be paralympic classes for trans people to compete in?
Trans women competitors have enjoyed success in sports including weightlifting, cycling and athletics. Yet World Rugby’s decision to exclude them was the right one. Other sports should follow its lead.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1318422196033912832?s=20
The real question is the size of Biden's victory.
If you want to stoke the flames of the culture war start with Mx Claus. That should get some traction.
I have social contacts with the small Latvian community in the USA and they are all voting for Trump.
That's what I meant by it being eerily similar, small issues that definitely did occur, were brought up to undermine the entire movement.
But the trend is helpful, and the trend is that there isn't one.