Early voting in the second biggest state now at 43.7% of the 2016 total – and there’s still more tha
Comments
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It would be amusing if at next PMQs, Starmer asked Boris to say precisely why he wanted a trade deal with America.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with BidenMexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway2 -
Fingers crossedMaxPB said:The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
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No. Firstly the value isn't there on Texas anymore and secondly it's generally the most committed who vote early. The undecideds vote later or on the day.ydoethur said:So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.
And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.
Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.
Given the unique situation of Covid this election year, and the high motivation of the Democratic base to ensure their votes are cast, I'm not reading too much into this.1 -
You are assuming if Trump wins the EC he does so on a minority vote share.alex_ said:Q
Will it? The Senate, yes, but the House will be more reflective of the National share of the vote, no?Mexicanpete said:
I did mention down thread that I assumed (an unlikely) Trump victory would likely (although not guaranteed) take both houses along with him.rcs1000 said:
I suspect that the most important thing to deliver a trade agreement is the same party holding both the Presidency and Congress.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Let's just hope Biden wins EC, vote share and both houses.0 -
I really hope you're right but it seems very early to be saying this with confidenceMaxPB said:The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
0 -
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
"the only response" he missed out the words 'that he has seen', and he has not been looking very hard. There has been plenty rebuttal to the Great Barrington report based analysis of the last 9 months.rottenborough said:"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)3 -
It is obvious to me that the lockdown was a tremendous success in terms of suppressing the disease.rottenborough said:"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
Since the lockdown we have much faster and better testing, a few treatments and better protocols, vaccines in phase 3 trials and we've learnt long COVID is potentially a very big deal.
I genuinely think in 5-10 years we will be talking about lockdown saving hundreds of thousands of lives.
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He never gives an answer to Starmer's questions, so we will remain in the dark.DecrepiterJohnL said:
It would be amusing if at next PMQs, Starmer asked Boris to say precisely why he wanted a trade deal with America.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with BidenMexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway1 -
It's using modelled data, so yes I can't say it with confidence which is why I said "I think" though the modelled data that I've been using has been broadly correct for the last few days, enough to see the trend anyway and don't forget that case data trails actual infections by about 4-7 days and the ZOE app data also looks to have peaked.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I really hope you're right but it seems very early to be saying this with confidenceMaxPB said:The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
Even with all of that there's still a huge task of bringing the R down enough to start cutting infections and cases more rapidly so the hospitalisation rate starts to fall again and the number of people in hospital goes down as people recover faster than they get seriously infected.1 -
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
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The first one yes, which had very wide support. What a lot of people oppose is a second lockdown, where the life saving value is far less clear. The government's own model is 800-107,000 which is basically the scientists saying "we haven't got a fucking clue how this will work but we want to say it now to cover our arses".rkrkrk said:
It is obvious to me that the lockdown was a tremendous success in terms of suppressing the disease.rottenborough said:"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
Since the lockdown we have much faster and better testing, a few treatments and better protocols, vaccines in phase 3 trials and we've learnt long COVID is potentially a very big deal.
I genuinely think in 5-10 years we will be talking about lockdown saving hundreds of thousands of lives.0 -
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?Philip_Thompson said:
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
Interesting article on Politico.com re: Omaha, Nebraska and NB CD02's EV
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/18/trump-nebraska-problem-suburbs-429250
"In the 2nd District, which includes largely Democratic Omaha and its largely Republican suburbs, the president is running 6 or 7 percentage points behind Joe Biden, according to public and private polling.
It’s a case study of his collapse in the suburbs, an example of how the president’s alienation of a traditional Republican constituency is proving costly to his reelection campaign — and how his increasingly desperate last-minute appeals to suburbanites are going unheeded.
“If you look at the struggle that Trump has going on in the suburbs, it’s just super consistent,” said Ryan Horn, a Republican media strategist based in Omaha. “What you see in Nebraska 2 you’ll see in Dallas, Texas, you’ll see in Charlotte, North Carolina, you’ll see in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, you’ll see in Orange County, California … It’s super, super consistent.”
The Omaha World-Herald, which until endorsing Hillary Clinton in 2016 hadn’t backed Democrat for president since 1932, endorsed Joe Biden recently, pleading for a break from Trump’s “recklessness.” And Don Bacon, the district’s Republican congressman, has been forced to remind voters that he is not in lockstep with Trump.
. . . .
Not long ago, Nebraska Republicans couldn’t have fathomed such a problem at the top of the ticket in their state, which awards one electoral vote in each of its three congressional districts and two electoral votes to the statewide winner. But in 2008, Barack Obama, carrying the 2nd District, picked off one of the electoral votes, marking the first time in 44 years that a Democrat had accomplished that feat.
Stunned, Republicans in the state’s legislature re-drew the 2nd District lines to make it safer for the GOP, adding the more conservative, western suburbs of Sarpy County to the city of Omaha. Obama lost the reconfigured district to Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump carried it narrowly four years later."
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No, Netflix.kinabalu said:
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?Philip_Thompson said:
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
We’re all (well most) optimistic that it will be, not all of us share your certainty 😉Philip_Thompson said:
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
The House is Democratic, not Republican.rawzer said:Still dont really understand why people post their 'fave' poll results and then get hit with counter 'faves' from the US when the whole set roll in neatly hours earlier on 538.
Anyhow interested in thoughts on this scenario - if Trump did pull of a surprise and keep the Presidency (not impossible) BUT loses the Senate (pretty good chance) and the House stays Republican (highly probable. What does a second term Presidency look like when he cant get anything through Congress and actually all the legislation is Dem legislation coming from Congress?
He has (way too much) leeway on foreign affairs but with neither House he cant do anything domestically. He can just veto, or he can work out how to compromise(?), or just pop with frustration?1 -
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.0 -
I'm not a lockdown "enthusiast", but I don't believe the Great Barrington Declaration deals with the biggest issue of all:rottenborough said:"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
Irrespective of government diktat, societies lock themselves down when CV19 cases get above a certain level, just in an unstructured way, so the idea that herd immunity can be achieved in a short period of time is a chimera.
This isn't complicated: look at US states with little to no restrictions, and see what's happened in them. Look at Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and Nevada. Tell me if herd immunity has been reached there - or indeed if they're on a path to near-term herd immunity - and then come back to me.
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This one is not on Netflix unfortunately. It's on the BBC.Philip_Thompson said:
No, Netflix.kinabalu said:
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?Philip_Thompson said:
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
Why 'unfortunately'?kinabalu said:
This one is not on Netflix unfortunately. It's on the BBC.Philip_Thompson said:
No, Netflix.kinabalu said:
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?Philip_Thompson said:
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
Given the idiots in charge, people are going to experience the 70s all over again. Maybe those for whom it is their first time around, it will have the excitement of the new, but I, for one, could do without the 70s Mk.2malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.1 -
If anyone is stuck for things to watch then you should watch the "Bad Boys of India" documentary series on Netflix. Very interesting.0
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As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/0 -
I wonder if there might have been a bit of a “get out there and support your local pubs/restaurants” etc effect this weekend, which I suppose could have an impact if you view the venues as a risk. Anecdotally, there has been high demand from people prepared to brave outside areas to stay within the rules, and the “are you all from the same household, sir?” test isn’t to tricky to get past for those prepared to do so.MaxPB said:The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
0 -
@RobD
Just for you Rob,
Covid Testing Delays due to UK Government’s privatised labs!
Yes, yes, the lab is in Glasgow but that’s not what’s important and BBC Scotland knew that as they instinctively, perhaps consciously, sought to headline the story to deflect criticism away from the UK Government’s troubled, privatised, system and onto the Scottish Government.
Clearly, that was the best they could do and those who read on will see the truth:
A delay to the publication of Covid test results was caused by a “testing capacity issue”, the Scottish government has said. The issue with the UK government Lighthouse lab in Glasgow has caused 64,000 tests to be re-routed to other sites.
Surprise, surprise, the Herald does the same trick:
Depending on which research you read, up to 80% only read the headline and around 60% of what appears in inboxes is not even clicked on:
Study Confirms Most People Share Articles Based Only On Headlines
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/10/18/covid-testing-delays-due-to-uk-governments-privatised-labs/0 -
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/1 -
EDIT ignore1
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I'm not certain. I've been known to be wrong before: I voted Labour in 2001 for instance thinking Brown was an Iron Chancellor.alex_ said:
We’re all (well most) optimistic that it will be, not all of us share your certainty 😉Philip_Thompson said:
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?IanB2 said:
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.Philip_Thompson said:
No a Biden victory will.Mexicanpete said:
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanityHYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.0 -
One factor re: early voting, whether by mail or in person, that has NOT gotten much publicity, is fact that by casting their ballots weeks or days BEFORE Election Day, voters are helping to REDUCE the odds of EDay problems AND also ensuring that MORE votes will be reported on EDay.
Why? Because instead of having to manage the process, assist voters and process ballots on just one day, or just starting on EDay, they can spread the work out over a longer period of time AND get more ballots validated and processed in time for the initial ENight voting results.
One problem that was highlighted in 2020 primaries, is the antiquated laws many states have - or had until recently - with respect to processing of absentee and other postal ballots.
Poster child for his was New York, where winners in several Democratic primaries were NOT known until two weeks AFTER Primary Day, due to COVID-inspired surge in absentee GREATLY compounded by legal requirement that absentees could NOT be processed until days AFTER election day.
Number of states have improved their laws and regulation in the wake of 2020 primary experience, including IIRC New York. BUT there are still problems due to insufficient resources (funding, staffing, technology, training) and challenges created by the pandemic such as finding and retaining enough election workers, whose ranks have traditionally been filled with LOTS of seniors either unable or unwilling to work in current conditions.
AND preventing them from catching the Crud on the job, which could potentially decimate election work forces, who are absolutely esstential IF (to paraphrase the late Carl Sagan) millions and millions and millions of votes are going to be processed and counted by legal deadlines.0 -
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.1 -
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage.rcs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
On October 18th 2016 it was Clinton 49.8% and Trump 42.8%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/0 -
50 years later and many of them are not improved for redevelopment.DecrepiterJohnL said:
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.0 -
I used to spend 3-4 months a year there in late seventies/early eighties, staying at what was then the Tara Hotel in Kensington. Fantastic times we had.DecrepiterJohnL said:
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
PS: I see it is the Copthorne Tara nowadays.0 -
As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.3 -
Does anyone (Foxy ?) know if people are being admitted to hospital differently now compared to the spring ?
The guidelines back then were not to ring 999 unless you were about to keel over.0 -
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/0 -
On topic. Please shut the door on your way out, Donald.0
-
That's their forecast for polling day, not the current average of the polls.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Here's their polling average: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/0 -
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/0 -
He has Biden leading by over ten points on the poll average . So not sure where you’re getting that figure from . Okay you’re looking at his forecast not the polling average so you’re comparing different things .HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/0 -
Why do you think Trump will pick up the undecideds?rcs1000 said:As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.0 -
To be fair, the IRA were still in the process of creating bomb sites.DecrepiterJohnL said:
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.1 -
Much of the middle episodes of Our Friends in the North is set in 1970s London and gives a real feel for how shabby it was. I think they’re accessible via YouTube.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.0 -
It is informative to look at the 7 day as well as the 14 USC view.rcs1000 said:As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
Trump has been gaining all week on the 7 day view.0 -
Three reasons:lockhimup said:
Why do you think Trump will pick up the undecideds?rcs1000 said:As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
(1) Historically undecided break towards the incumbent
(2) Saying "I don't know" may be code for "I know I shouldn't like him, but he's OK"
(3) Undecided broke towards Trump in 20162 -
The popular vote forecast as of tonightAlistair said:
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
However given RCP got the popular vote more accurately than 538 in 2016 you can also look at their figures tonight which is 8%.
IBID/TIPP tonight meanwhile has Biden's popular vote lead at 5%, 49.5% to 44.5%
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
0 -
Magnificent work by Sumpers to break through the suppression of him being able to speak out.rottenborough said:"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)0 -
The interesting thing about the USC tracker is as the Biden lead grows the percentage of people saying everyone else will vote for Trump grows. As Trump cuts the lead the percentage of people thinking their state will vote for Biden increases.0
-
No.HYUFD said:
The popular vote forecast as of tonightAlistair said:
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
That's what Nate Silver expects will be the result on election day. It is NOT the current polls.3 -
Yes, I know. But we were talking about polling averages. Of which the 538 polling average is a 10.5% lead for Biden.HYUFD said:
The popular vote forecast as of tonightAlistair said:
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/0 -
LolHYUFD said:
The popular vote forecast as of tonightAlistair said:
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/0 -
Yup. 10.6% is the Biden lead on 538 currently.nico679 said:
He has Biden leading by over ten points on the poll average . So not sure where you’re getting that figure from . Okay you’re looking at his forecast not the polling average so you’re comparing different things .HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
0 -
If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.1 -
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%alex_ said:
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/0 -
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.another_richard said:If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.0 -
538 polling average has Biden with a 10.6% lead (52.4 to 41.9). You are looking at the wrong figuresHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage.rcs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
On October 18th 2016 it was Clinton 49.8% and Trump 42.8%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/0 -
Election news: Voting for Labour's NEC starts tomorrow.
One downside of an online ballot is the inability to draw a cock and balls.1 -
The RCP average is showing 8.9% Biden lead, not 8%.HYUFD said:
The popular vote forecast as of tonightAlistair said:
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
However given RCP got the popular vote more accurately than 538 in 2016 you can also look at their figures tonight which is 8%.
IBID/TIPP tonight meanwhile has Biden's popular vote lead at 5%, 49.5% to 44.5%
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/0 -
Clinton still ahead in the 2016 prediction.0
-
So were the modern architects.SandyRentool said:
To be fair, the IRA were still in the process of creating bomb sites.DecrepiterJohnL said:
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.0 -
Ah, but willy-waving is so gendered.SandyRentool said:Election news: Voting for Labour's NEC starts tomorrow.
One downside of an online ballot is the inability to draw a cock and balls.1 -
Can anyone explain Texas 43.2% of total votes counted 2016 on this map compared to the ballots requested of bugger all. Something wrong surelybrokenwheel said:
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.Gallowgate said:
How do you know?HYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html0 -
Greater Manchester is set to run out of beds to treat people left seriously ill by Covid-19, and some of the region’s 12 hospitals are already full, a leaked NHS document has revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-full0 -
And the answer to my question?HYUFD said:
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%alex_ said:
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/0 -
Yes,HYUFD said:
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%alex_ said:
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.
0 -
And BoZo will take the blame from the locals for fucking this up from day 1.FrancisUrquhart said:Greater Manchester is set to run out of beds to treat people left seriously ill by Covid-19, and some of the region’s 12 hospitals are already full, a leaked NHS document has revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-full0 -
another_richard said:
If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
Honourable mention to Belgium pretending to be a country of five times its actual size.0 -
538 of course forecast a much more accurate pop vote than their (or RCP's) polling average
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
With Clinton 48.5 and Trump on 44.90 -
Yes and no.IanB2 said:
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.another_richard said:If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.1 -
They are running out of beds, or running out of beds set aside for Covid patients?ManchesterKurt said:
And BoZo will take the blame from the locals for fucking this up from day 1.FrancisUrquhart said:Greater Manchester is set to run out of beds to treat people left seriously ill by Covid-19, and some of the region’s 12 hospitals are already full, a leaked NHS document has revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-full
Are they making any gains on beds set aside for, say, influenza patients? (Apologies haven’t read the article...)0 -
In person early.voting vs mail in ballots?bigjohnowls said:
Can anyone explain Texas 43.2% of total votes counted 2016 on this map compared to the ballots requested of bugger all. Something wrong surelybrokenwheel said:
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.Gallowgate said:
How do you know?HYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html0 -
The golden rule is you have to go and find it, not wait for it to come to you.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and no.IanB2 said:
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.another_richard said:If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.1 -
Thanks.rcs1000 said:
Three reasons:lockhimup said:
Why do you think Trump will pick up the undecideds?rcs1000 said:As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
(1) Historically undecided break towards the incumbent
(2) Saying "I don't know" may be code for "I know I shouldn't like him, but he's OK"
(3) Undecided broke towards Trump in 2016
Picking brains on here because Biden looks unbelievable value - I'm desperate for (logical) reasons not to put a huge bet on!
What do you think about the high "enthusiasm" level of Trumps vote? Isn't that what you'd expect if undecideds weren't breaking for him?
Also, the final IBID/TIPP poll in 16 gave Trump 45, Clinton 43. Actual result 46,48. That suggests the undecideds broke 5-1 against Trump.0 -
I grew up in 1970s Birmingham. The City Centre was all shiny and new with the Bull Ring and the Rotunda. It didn't take long for it to look shabby again, and there wasn't much of the chic about it.IanB2 said:
Much of the middle episodes of Our Friends in the North is set in 1970s London and gives a real feel for how shabby it was. I think they’re accessible via YouTube.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.0 -
Though still 0.4% too high for Hillary and 1.2% too low for TrumpAlistair said:538 of course forecast a much more accurate pop vote than their (or RCP's) polling average
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
With Clinton 48.5 and Trump on 44.90 -
I once had to kill 5 hours waiting for a sleeper train in Frankfurt.rcs1000 said:
OK, maybe I'm exaggerating. A bit.eristdoof said:
Bavaria does have a lot of auto industry, but saying "most of the German auto industry", is certainly over exaggerating. Stuttgart and state (Baden-Würtemburg) has a few big names and VW is based in Wolfsburg near Hannover, and that state (Niedersachsen) owns quite a big chunk of VW.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
But Munich is definitely more of a world City than Frankfurt. (Heck, I'd argue Berlin is too.)
I'm basing this on the fact that Munich is (a) bigger, (b) has many more important German companies, (c) has a world famous cultural event, and (d) is simply much more important than Frankfurt.
Frankfurt has the ECB. It has Deutsche Bank. It has the branch offices (a few hundred people) of Goldman Sachs and a few other US investment banks.
Now, if you leave Frankfurt and head towards Heidelberg, you might find a few more things of interest (like a great University). But Frankfurt itself is a village, not a world City.
It's simply not in the same tier as Stuttgard, Cologne, Munich, Berlin or Hamburg.
You could kill yourself in Frankfurt.0 -
Because vote-by-mail in Texas is not big, the vast majority of the early vote there is in-person so no mail ballot request needed.bigjohnowls said:
Can anyone explain Texas 43.2% of total votes counted 2016 on this map compared to the ballots requested of bugger all. Something wrong surelybrokenwheel said:
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.Gallowgate said:
How do you know?HYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html1 -
Given it takes 7-10 days between infection and hospitalisation....by the time the Brexit style negotiations over a Manchester lockdown are finally concluded it will have all been too late.0
-
Texas doesn't permit much mail voting (need to be over 65 essentially) but does have early in person voting.bigjohnowls said:
Can anyone explain Texas 43.2% of total votes counted 2016 on this map compared to the ballots requested of bugger all. Something wrong surelybrokenwheel said:
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.Gallowgate said:
How do you know?HYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
So requested ballots are bugger all since people aren't allowed to request them but they can and have been queueing up to vote in person.0 -
It's just the sort of good drama (I hope) that the BBC should be doing much more of.kinabalu said:
Oh yes. In the bag. Thanks for flagging. Who needs atomized globalist Netflix? Not us.DecrepiterJohnL said:OT Roadkill -- new politics drama BBC1 9pm tonight
Celebrating his win in a newspaper libel case, cabinet minister Peter Laurence is summoned to Downing Street to see PM Dawn Ellison, who reveals she is looking to promote him to an office of state. However, he is soon bought back down to earth with a bump when his special adviser Duncan Knock reveals an inmate in a women's prison is claiming to have a secret about his past that could affect his future.
Thriller by David Hare, starring Hugh Laurie and Helen McCrory.
https://www.radiotimes.com/tv-programme/e/mrg9jq/roadkill--series-1-episode-1/
I expect it to have a leftist "Tories are evil" tilt - luvvie screenwriters almost always struggle to get Conservatives right, or don't want to - but I'll still be watching enthusiastically.0 -
Again yes and no.FrancisUrquhart said:Given it takes 7-10 days between infection and hospitalisation....by the time the Brexit style negotiations over a Manchester lockdown are finally concluded it will have all been too late.
Yes it will be too late to halt the rise in infections.
No it won't be too late to have an impact since the level of infections will need to be brought back down.0 -
London has changed a little bit since then.DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.0 -
True but while most of the polling average probably has Biden about right at around 50% they are likely underestimating the Trump vote againrcs1000 said:
Yes,HYUFD said:
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%alex_ said:
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.0 -
I suppose you have to draw a distinction between two different purposes of testingFrancisUrquhart said:
The golden rule is you have to go and find it, not wait for it to come to you.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and no.IanB2 said:
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.another_richard said:If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.
1) to identify any many cases as possible (as soon as possible) so they can self isolate and cease spreading the virus (obviously the symptomatic should be isolating anyway, but not the routine testing), and to assist contact tracing.
2) to accurately trace prevalence of the virus to inform national (and local) policy/strategy.0 -
Texas is not reporting mail ballot requests.bigjohnowls said:
Can anyone explain Texas 43.2% of total votes counted 2016 on this map compared to the ballots requested of bugger all. Something wrong surelybrokenwheel said:
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.Gallowgate said:
How do you know?HYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html
It does apparently report returned ballots (558,017 so far) but there have also been 3,322,987 In-person votes.
All this is on the electproject website.0 -
To be fair, most of Britain looked shabby in the Seventies. London was certainly pretty run down when I went there in the early eighties. It was quite a lot smarter by the time I left.Mexicanpete said:
I grew up in 1970s Birmingham. The City Centre was all shiny and new with the Bull Ring and the Rotunda. It didn't take long for it to look shabby again, and there wasn't much of the chic about it.IanB2 said:
Much of the middle episodes of Our Friends in the North is set in 1970s London and gives a real feel for how shabby it was. I think they’re accessible via YouTube.malcolmg said:
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,DavidL said:
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.eristdoof said:
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.DavidL said:
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.rcs1000 said:
Frankfurt above Munich.ManchesterKurt said:
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
Paris now looks much like London did then.0 -
The Netherlands are almost as bad.alex_ said:another_richard said:If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
Honourable mention to Belgium pretending to be a country of five times its actual size.0 -
That is 2 way, 4 way it is 8%Benpointer said:
The RCP average is showing 8.9% Biden lead, not 8%.HYUFD said:
The popular vote forecast as of tonightAlistair said:
No, that's the projected vote share you are looking at not the 538 polling average which is hereHYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
However given RCP got the popular vote more accurately than 538 in 2016 you can also look at their figures tonight which is 8%.
IBID/TIPP tonight meanwhile has Biden's popular vote lead at 5%, 49.5% to 44.5%
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html0 -
-
Burnham needs to climb down or hope Johnson imposes tier 3, because Johnson is not going to capitulate on this and GM hospitals are at breaking point.FrancisUrquhart said:Given it takes 7-10 days between infection and hospitalisation....by the time the Brexit style negotiations over a Manchester lockdown are finally concluded it will have all been too late.
0 -
If we go to the other end of the scale, Dornsife has Biden on 54% and Trump on 42%, that would give Trump 4% to recover which would be 54% to 46%.HYUFD said:
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%alex_ said:
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/0 -
He said that? Then he is as evil as his PB portrayal.rcs1000 said:0 -
Based on... what? Trafalgar not being in line with the general picture? Even though they deliberately skew their figures to Trump.HYUFD said:
True but while most of the polling average probably has Biden about right at around 50% they are likely underestimating the Trump vote againrcs1000 said:
Yes,HYUFD said:
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%alex_ said:
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stagercs1000 said:
Nico is compring 538 numbers with 538 numbers.HYUFD said:
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%nico679 said:At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.0 -
No, the worried well are clogging up the system same as they do in regular healthcare. The issue is that running at or near full capacity means long lead times for processing, at the moment 95% of test results take up to 4 days to arrive. That's ineffectively slow, reducing the number of swabs taken will bring the processing time down to 95% within 2 days which is where it needs to be for any track and trace system to be effective.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes and no.IanB2 said:
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.another_richard said:If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.0 -
New infections published today up 31% on a week ago.MaxPB said:The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
I'm unclear why you think that's compatible with R being below 1. To me it seems to contradict your assertion.1 -
Also only over 65s can have a no excuse mail in ballot . The Dems wanted that for all voters but the GOP of course blocked that. That means the mail in ballots are likely to be weighted disproportionately to older voters .brokenwheel said:
Because vote-by-mail in Texas is not big, the vast majority of the early vote there is in-person so no mail ballot request needed.bigjohnowls said:
Can anyone explain Texas 43.2% of total votes counted 2016 on this map compared to the ballots requested of bugger all. Something wrong surelybrokenwheel said:
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.Gallowgate said:
How do you know?HYUFD said:
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the dayPhilip_Thompson said:I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html0
