I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with Biden
However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway
It would be amusing if at next PMQs, Starmer asked Boris to say precisely why he wanted a trade deal with America.
The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.
And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.
Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.
No. Firstly the value isn't there on Texas anymore and secondly it's generally the most committed who vote early. The undecideds vote later or on the day.
Given the unique situation of Covid this election year, and the high motivation of the Democratic base to ensure their votes are cast, I'm not reading too much into this.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
I suspect that the most important thing to deliver a trade agreement is the same party holding both the Presidency and Congress.
I did mention down thread that I assumed (an unlikely) Trump victory would likely (although not guaranteed) take both houses along with him.
Will it? The Senate, yes, but the House will be more reflective of the National share of the vote, no?
You are assuming if Trump wins the EC he does so on a minority vote share.
Let's just hope Biden wins EC, vote share and both houses.
The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
I really hope you're right but it seems very early to be saying this with confidence
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
"the only response" he missed out the words 'that he has seen', and he has not been looking very hard. There has been plenty rebuttal to the Great Barrington report based analysis of the last 9 months.
"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
It is obvious to me that the lockdown was a tremendous success in terms of suppressing the disease.
Since the lockdown we have much faster and better testing, a few treatments and better protocols, vaccines in phase 3 trials and we've learnt long COVID is potentially a very big deal.
I genuinely think in 5-10 years we will be talking about lockdown saving hundreds of thousands of lives.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with Biden
However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway
It would be amusing if at next PMQs, Starmer asked Boris to say precisely why he wanted a trade deal with America.
He never gives an answer to Starmer's questions, so we will remain in the dark.
The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
I really hope you're right but it seems very early to be saying this with confidence
It's using modelled data, so yes I can't say it with confidence which is why I said "I think" though the modelled data that I've been using has been broadly correct for the last few days, enough to see the trend anyway and don't forget that case data trails actual infections by about 4-7 days and the ZOE app data also looks to have peaked.
Even with all of that there's still a huge task of bringing the R down enough to start cutting infections and cases more rapidly so the hospitalisation rate starts to fall again and the number of people in hospital goes down as people recover faster than they get seriously infected.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
It is obvious to me that the lockdown was a tremendous success in terms of suppressing the disease.
Since the lockdown we have much faster and better testing, a few treatments and better protocols, vaccines in phase 3 trials and we've learnt long COVID is potentially a very big deal.
I genuinely think in 5-10 years we will be talking about lockdown saving hundreds of thousands of lives.
The first one yes, which had very wide support. What a lot of people oppose is a second lockdown, where the life saving value is far less clear. The government's own model is 800-107,000 which is basically the scientists saying "we haven't got a fucking clue how this will work but we want to say it now to cover our arses".
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?
"In the 2nd District, which includes largely Democratic Omaha and its largely Republican suburbs, the president is running 6 or 7 percentage points behind Joe Biden, according to public and private polling.
It’s a case study of his collapse in the suburbs, an example of how the president’s alienation of a traditional Republican constituency is proving costly to his reelection campaign — and how his increasingly desperate last-minute appeals to suburbanites are going unheeded.
“If you look at the struggle that Trump has going on in the suburbs, it’s just super consistent,” said Ryan Horn, a Republican media strategist based in Omaha. “What you see in Nebraska 2 you’ll see in Dallas, Texas, you’ll see in Charlotte, North Carolina, you’ll see in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, you’ll see in Orange County, California … It’s super, super consistent.”
The Omaha World-Herald, which until endorsing Hillary Clinton in 2016 hadn’t backed Democrat for president since 1932, endorsed Joe Biden recently, pleading for a break from Trump’s “recklessness.” And Don Bacon, the district’s Republican congressman, has been forced to remind voters that he is not in lockstep with Trump.
. . . .
Not long ago, Nebraska Republicans couldn’t have fathomed such a problem at the top of the ticket in their state, which awards one electoral vote in each of its three congressional districts and two electoral votes to the statewide winner. But in 2008, Barack Obama, carrying the 2nd District, picked off one of the electoral votes, marking the first time in 44 years that a Democrat had accomplished that feat.
Stunned, Republicans in the state’s legislature re-drew the 2nd District lines to make it safer for the GOP, adding the more conservative, western suburbs of Sarpy County to the city of Omaha. Obama lost the reconfigured district to Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump carried it narrowly four years later."
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
We’re all (well most) optimistic that it will be, not all of us share your certainty 😉
Still dont really understand why people post their 'fave' poll results and then get hit with counter 'faves' from the US when the whole set roll in neatly hours earlier on 538.
Anyhow interested in thoughts on this scenario - if Trump did pull of a surprise and keep the Presidency (not impossible) BUT loses the Senate (pretty good chance) and the House stays Republican (highly probable. What does a second term Presidency look like when he cant get anything through Congress and actually all the legislation is Dem legislation coming from Congress?
He has (way too much) leeway on foreign affairs but with neither House he cant do anything domestically. He can just veto, or he can work out how to compromise(?), or just pop with frustration?
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
I'm not a lockdown "enthusiast", but I don't believe the Great Barrington Declaration deals with the biggest issue of all:
Irrespective of government diktat, societies lock themselves down when CV19 cases get above a certain level, just in an unstructured way, so the idea that herd immunity can be achieved in a short period of time is a chimera.
This isn't complicated: look at US states with little to no restrictions, and see what's happened in them. Look at Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and Nevada. Tell me if herd immunity has been reached there - or indeed if they're on a path to near-term herd immunity - and then come back to me.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?
No, Netflix.
This one is not on Netflix unfortunately. It's on the BBC.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
Are you watching the new politics drama starting tonight on the BBC, Philip?
No, Netflix.
This one is not on Netflix unfortunately. It's on the BBC.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
Given the idiots in charge, people are going to experience the 70s all over again. Maybe those for whom it is their first time around, it will have the excitement of the new, but I, for one, could do without the 70s Mk.2
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
I wonder if there might have been a bit of a “get out there and support your local pubs/restaurants” etc effect this weekend, which I suppose could have an impact if you view the venues as a risk. Anecdotally, there has been high demand from people prepared to brave outside areas to stay within the rules, and the “are you all from the same household, sir?” test isn’t to tricky to get past for those prepared to do so.
@RobD Just for you Rob, Covid Testing Delays due to UK Government’s privatised labs! Yes, yes, the lab is in Glasgow but that’s not what’s important and BBC Scotland knew that as they instinctively, perhaps consciously, sought to headline the story to deflect criticism away from the UK Government’s troubled, privatised, system and onto the Scottish Government.
Clearly, that was the best they could do and those who read on will see the truth:
A delay to the publication of Covid test results was caused by a “testing capacity issue”, the Scottish government has said. The issue with the UK government Lighthouse lab in Glasgow has caused 64,000 tests to be re-routed to other sites.
Surprise, surprise, the Herald does the same trick:
Depending on which research you read, up to 80% only read the headline and around 60% of what appears in inboxes is not even clicked on:
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
No a Biden victory will.
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
Is it that alien a concept to you that someone might genuinely be optimistic that it will be?
We’re all (well most) optimistic that it will be, not all of us share your certainty 😉
I'm not certain. I've been known to be wrong before: I voted Labour in 2001 for instance thinking Brown was an Iron Chancellor.
One factor re: early voting, whether by mail or in person, that has NOT gotten much publicity, is fact that by casting their ballots weeks or days BEFORE Election Day, voters are helping to REDUCE the odds of EDay problems AND also ensuring that MORE votes will be reported on EDay.
Why? Because instead of having to manage the process, assist voters and process ballots on just one day, or just starting on EDay, they can spread the work out over a longer period of time AND get more ballots validated and processed in time for the initial ENight voting results.
One problem that was highlighted in 2020 primaries, is the antiquated laws many states have - or had until recently - with respect to processing of absentee and other postal ballots.
Poster child for his was New York, where winners in several Democratic primaries were NOT known until two weeks AFTER Primary Day, due to COVID-inspired surge in absentee GREATLY compounded by legal requirement that absentees could NOT be processed until days AFTER election day.
Number of states have improved their laws and regulation in the wake of 2020 primary experience, including IIRC New York. BUT there are still problems due to insufficient resources (funding, staffing, technology, training) and challenges created by the pandemic such as finding and retaining enough election workers, whose ranks have traditionally been filled with LOTS of seniors either unable or unwilling to work in current conditions.
AND preventing them from catching the Crud on the job, which could potentially decimate election work forces, who are absolutely esstential IF (to paraphrase the late Carl Sagan) millions and millions and millions of votes are going to be processed and counted by legal deadlines.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage.
On October 18th 2016 it was Clinton 49.8% and Trump 42.8%.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.
50 years later and many of them are not improved for redevelopment.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.
I used to spend 3-4 months a year there in late seventies/early eighties, staying at what was then the Tara Hotel in Kensington. Fantastic times we had. PS: I see it is the Copthorne Tara nowadays.
As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
He has Biden leading by over ten points on the poll average . So not sure where you’re getting that figure from . Okay you’re looking at his forecast not the polling average so you’re comparing different things .
As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
Why do you think Trump will pick up the undecideds?
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.
To be fair, the IRA were still in the process of creating bomb sites.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
Much of the middle episodes of Our Friends in the North is set in 1970s London and gives a real feel for how shabby it was. I think they’re accessible via YouTube.
As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
It is informative to look at the 7 day as well as the 14 USC view.
Trump has been gaining all week on the 7 day view.
As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
Why do you think Trump will pick up the undecideds?
Three reasons:
(1) Historically undecided break towards the incumbent (2) Saying "I don't know" may be code for "I know I shouldn't like him, but he's OK" (3) Undecided broke towards Trump in 2016
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
"So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."
Lord Sumption (Mail)
Magnificent work by Sumpers to break through the suppression of him being able to speak out.
The interesting thing about the USC tracker is as the Biden lead grows the percentage of people saying everyone else will vote for Trump grows. As Trump cuts the lead the percentage of people thinking their state will vote for Biden increases.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
He has Biden leading by over ten points on the poll average . So not sure where you’re getting that figure from . Okay you’re looking at his forecast not the polling average so you’re comparing different things .
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage.
On October 18th 2016 it was Clinton 49.8% and Trump 42.8%.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
70s London was shabby and there were still bomb sites that had not been redeveloped.
To be fair, the IRA were still in the process of creating bomb sites.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
How do you know?
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.
Greater Manchester is set to run out of beds to treat people left seriously ill by Covid-19, and some of the region’s 12 hospitals are already full, a leaked NHS document has revealed.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.
Greater Manchester is set to run out of beds to treat people left seriously ill by Covid-19, and some of the region’s 12 hospitals are already full, a leaked NHS document has revealed.
If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France 11/10/20 16,101 18/10 20 29,837
Italy 11/10/20 5,456 18/10/20 11,705
Poland 11/10/20 4,178 18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.
Yes and no.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.
Greater Manchester is set to run out of beds to treat people left seriously ill by Covid-19, and some of the region’s 12 hospitals are already full, a leaked NHS document has revealed.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
How do you know?
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.
If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France 11/10/20 16,101 18/10 20 29,837
Italy 11/10/20 5,456 18/10/20 11,705
Poland 11/10/20 4,178 18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.
Yes and no.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.
The golden rule is you have to go and find it, not wait for it to come to you.
As an aside, both the IBD/TIPP and USC Dornife tracking polls suggest a move towards Trump today. In both cases it's small, but that it is repeated in two tracking polls suggests it may be more than just random noise.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
Why do you think Trump will pick up the undecideds?
Three reasons:
(1) Historically undecided break towards the incumbent (2) Saying "I don't know" may be code for "I know I shouldn't like him, but he's OK" (3) Undecided broke towards Trump in 2016
Thanks. Picking brains on here because Biden looks unbelievable value - I'm desperate for (logical) reasons not to put a huge bet on! What do you think about the high "enthusiasm" level of Trumps vote? Isn't that what you'd expect if undecideds weren't breaking for him? Also, the final IBID/TIPP poll in 16 gave Trump 45, Clinton 43. Actual result 46,48. That suggests the undecideds broke 5-1 against Trump.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
Much of the middle episodes of Our Friends in the North is set in 1970s London and gives a real feel for how shabby it was. I think they’re accessible via YouTube.
I grew up in 1970s Birmingham. The City Centre was all shiny and new with the Bull Ring and the Rotunda. It didn't take long for it to look shabby again, and there wasn't much of the chic about it.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
Bavaria does have a lot of auto industry, but saying "most of the German auto industry", is certainly over exaggerating. Stuttgart and state (Baden-Würtemburg) has a few big names and VW is based in Wolfsburg near Hannover, and that state (Niedersachsen) owns quite a big chunk of VW.
OK, maybe I'm exaggerating. A bit.
But Munich is definitely more of a world City than Frankfurt. (Heck, I'd argue Berlin is too.)
I'm basing this on the fact that Munich is (a) bigger, (b) has many more important German companies, (c) has a world famous cultural event, and (d) is simply much more important than Frankfurt.
Frankfurt has the ECB. It has Deutsche Bank. It has the branch offices (a few hundred people) of Goldman Sachs and a few other US investment banks.
Now, if you leave Frankfurt and head towards Heidelberg, you might find a few more things of interest (like a great University). But Frankfurt itself is a village, not a world City.
It's simply not in the same tier as Stuttgard, Cologne, Munich, Berlin or Hamburg.
I once had to kill 5 hours waiting for a sleeper train in Frankfurt.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
How do you know?
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.
Given it takes 7-10 days between infection and hospitalisation....by the time the Brexit style negotiations over a Manchester lockdown are finally concluded it will have all been too late.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
How do you know?
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.
OT Roadkill -- new politics drama BBC1 9pm tonight
Celebrating his win in a newspaper libel case, cabinet minister Peter Laurence is summoned to Downing Street to see PM Dawn Ellison, who reveals she is looking to promote him to an office of state. However, he is soon bought back down to earth with a bump when his special adviser Duncan Knock reveals an inmate in a women's prison is claiming to have a secret about his past that could affect his future.
Oh yes. In the bag. Thanks for flagging. Who needs atomized globalist Netflix? Not us.
It's just the sort of good drama (I hope) that the BBC should be doing much more of.
I expect it to have a leftist "Tories are evil" tilt - luvvie screenwriters almost always struggle to get Conservatives right, or don't want to - but I'll still be watching enthusiastically.
Given it takes 7-10 days between infection and hospitalisation....by the time the Brexit style negotiations over a Manchester lockdown are finally concluded it will have all been too late.
Again yes and no.
Yes it will be too late to halt the rise in infections.
No it won't be too late to have an impact since the level of infections will need to be brought back down.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.
True but while most of the polling average probably has Biden about right at around 50% they are likely underestimating the Trump vote again
If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France 11/10/20 16,101 18/10 20 29,837
Italy 11/10/20 5,456 18/10/20 11,705
Poland 11/10/20 4,178 18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.
Yes and no.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.
The golden rule is you have to go and find it, not wait for it to come to you.
I suppose you have to draw a distinction between two different purposes of testing
1) to identify any many cases as possible (as soon as possible) so they can self isolate and cease spreading the virus (obviously the symptomatic should be isolating anyway, but not the routine testing), and to assist contact tracing. 2) to accurately trace prevalence of the virus to inform national (and local) policy/strategy.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
How do you know?
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
Exactly , in the 70's great pubs etc but definitely shabby chic ,
Much of the middle episodes of Our Friends in the North is set in 1970s London and gives a real feel for how shabby it was. I think they’re accessible via YouTube.
I grew up in 1970s Birmingham. The City Centre was all shiny and new with the Bull Ring and the Rotunda. It didn't take long for it to look shabby again, and there wasn't much of the chic about it.
To be fair, most of Britain looked shabby in the Seventies. London was certainly pretty run down when I went there in the early eighties. It was quite a lot smarter by the time I left.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
Given it takes 7-10 days between infection and hospitalisation....by the time the Brexit style negotiations over a Manchester lockdown are finally concluded it will have all been too late.
Burnham needs to climb down or hope Johnson imposes tier 3, because Johnson is not going to capitulate on this and GM hospitals are at breaking point.
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%
At this point in 2016 Clinton had an average national lead of 7 points , Biden has 10 points . Also in 2016 the election was on the 8th November . So Trump had 3 weeks to close the gap , the 2020 election is now 16 days away . And then of course there was the Comey intervention .
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
As of tonight Biden's average national lead is now 8% and his battleground state lead is 4.3%
As of tonight Biden leads by 8.4% with 538, 53.6% to 45.2% for Trump so about 1.4% higher than Hillary led the popular vote in in 2016 then at this stage
What effect do you believe the Comey intervention had on the Clinton vote? And do you foresee anything similar happening this time?
Look at IBID/TIPP tonight, Biden 49.5% and Trump at 44.5%, others at 3.4%, so about 2.5% still undecided or shy Trumps, if they go to Trump it is Biden 49.5% and Trump 47%
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.
True but while most of the polling average probably has Biden about right at around 50% they are likely underestimating the Trump vote again
Based on... what? Trafalgar not being in line with the general picture? Even though they deliberately skew their figures to Trump.
If we're comparing new cases Sunday by Sunday then:
France 11/10/20 16,101 18/10 20 29,837
Italy 11/10/20 5,456 18/10/20 11,705
Poland 11/10/20 4,178 18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
In Italy’s case at least, the tests are being targetted a lot more sensibly.
Yes and no.
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.
No, the worried well are clogging up the system same as they do in regular healthcare. The issue is that running at or near full capacity means long lead times for processing, at the moment 95% of test results take up to 4 days to arrive. That's ineffectively slow, reducing the number of swabs taken will bring the processing time down to 95% within 2 days which is where it needs to be for any track and trace system to be effective.
The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
New infections published today up 31% on a week ago. I'm unclear why you think that's compatible with R being below 1. To me it seems to contradict your assertion.
I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
How do you know?
There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.
Because vote-by-mail in Texas is not big, the vast majority of the early vote there is in-person so no mail ballot request needed.
Also only over 65s can have a no excuse mail in ballot . The Dems wanted that for all voters but the GOP of course blocked that. That means the mail in ballots are likely to be weighted disproportionately to older voters .
Comments
Given the unique situation of Covid this election year, and the high motivation of the Democratic base to ensure their votes are cast, I'm not reading too much into this.
Let's just hope Biden wins EC, vote share and both houses.
Since the lockdown we have much faster and better testing, a few treatments and better protocols, vaccines in phase 3 trials and we've learnt long COVID is potentially a very big deal.
I genuinely think in 5-10 years we will be talking about lockdown saving hundreds of thousands of lives.
Even with all of that there's still a huge task of bringing the R down enough to start cutting infections and cases more rapidly so the hospitalisation rate starts to fall again and the number of people in hospital goes down as people recover faster than they get seriously infected.
If you also factor in at that point 5 million votes had been cast , today it’s about to hit 28 million . A disproportionate amount of those are in key swing states .
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/18/trump-nebraska-problem-suburbs-429250
"In the 2nd District, which includes largely Democratic Omaha and its largely Republican suburbs, the president is running 6 or 7 percentage points behind Joe Biden, according to public and private polling.
It’s a case study of his collapse in the suburbs, an example of how the president’s alienation of a traditional Republican constituency is proving costly to his reelection campaign — and how his increasingly desperate last-minute appeals to suburbanites are going unheeded.
“If you look at the struggle that Trump has going on in the suburbs, it’s just super consistent,” said Ryan Horn, a Republican media strategist based in Omaha. “What you see in Nebraska 2 you’ll see in Dallas, Texas, you’ll see in Charlotte, North Carolina, you’ll see in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, you’ll see in Orange County, California … It’s super, super consistent.”
The Omaha World-Herald, which until endorsing Hillary Clinton in 2016 hadn’t backed Democrat for president since 1932, endorsed Joe Biden recently, pleading for a break from Trump’s “recklessness.” And Don Bacon, the district’s Republican congressman, has been forced to remind voters that he is not in lockstep with Trump.
. . . .
Not long ago, Nebraska Republicans couldn’t have fathomed such a problem at the top of the ticket in their state, which awards one electoral vote in each of its three congressional districts and two electoral votes to the statewide winner. But in 2008, Barack Obama, carrying the 2nd District, picked off one of the electoral votes, marking the first time in 44 years that a Democrat had accomplished that feat.
Stunned, Republicans in the state’s legislature re-drew the 2nd District lines to make it safer for the GOP, adding the more conservative, western suburbs of Sarpy County to the city of Omaha. Obama lost the reconfigured district to Mitt Romney in 2012, and Trump carried it narrowly four years later."
Irrespective of government diktat, societies lock themselves down when CV19 cases get above a certain level, just in an unstructured way, so the idea that herd immunity can be achieved in a short period of time is a chimera.
This isn't complicated: look at US states with little to no restrictions, and see what's happened in them. Look at Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and Nevada. Tell me if herd immunity has been reached there - or indeed if they're on a path to near-term herd immunity - and then come back to me.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
Just for you Rob,
Covid Testing Delays due to UK Government’s privatised labs!
Yes, yes, the lab is in Glasgow but that’s not what’s important and BBC Scotland knew that as they instinctively, perhaps consciously, sought to headline the story to deflect criticism away from the UK Government’s troubled, privatised, system and onto the Scottish Government.
Clearly, that was the best they could do and those who read on will see the truth:
A delay to the publication of Covid test results was caused by a “testing capacity issue”, the Scottish government has said. The issue with the UK government Lighthouse lab in Glasgow has caused 64,000 tests to be re-routed to other sites.
Surprise, surprise, the Herald does the same trick:
Depending on which research you read, up to 80% only read the headline and around 60% of what appears in inboxes is not even clicked on:
Study Confirms Most People Share Articles Based Only On Headlines
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/10/18/covid-testing-delays-due-to-uk-governments-privatised-labs/
Why? Because instead of having to manage the process, assist voters and process ballots on just one day, or just starting on EDay, they can spread the work out over a longer period of time AND get more ballots validated and processed in time for the initial ENight voting results.
One problem that was highlighted in 2020 primaries, is the antiquated laws many states have - or had until recently - with respect to processing of absentee and other postal ballots.
Poster child for his was New York, where winners in several Democratic primaries were NOT known until two weeks AFTER Primary Day, due to COVID-inspired surge in absentee GREATLY compounded by legal requirement that absentees could NOT be processed until days AFTER election day.
Number of states have improved their laws and regulation in the wake of 2020 primary experience, including IIRC New York. BUT there are still problems due to insufficient resources (funding, staffing, technology, training) and challenges created by the pandemic such as finding and retaining enough election workers, whose ranks have traditionally been filled with LOTS of seniors either unable or unwilling to work in current conditions.
AND preventing them from catching the Crud on the job, which could potentially decimate election work forces, who are absolutely esstential IF (to paraphrase the late Carl Sagan) millions and millions and millions of votes are going to be processed and counted by legal deadlines.
On October 18th 2016 it was Clinton 49.8% and Trump 42.8%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
PS: I see it is the Copthorne Tara nowadays.
That being said, Trump's time to pull this back is diminishing.
My long held assumption is that Trump would pick up the bulk of undecideds, but that Biden would hold onto his vote share. If that's true, it still results in a 5-6 point lead for Biden on polling day. Given that (a) we shouldn't assume that any polling error will be in the same direction as last time, and (b) Trump needs to get the lead down to 2-3% to have a 50-50 chance of winning (per Nate Silver), this means it is still very much Joe Biden's race to lose.
The guidelines back then were not to ring 999 unless you were about to keel over.
Here's their polling average: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
Trump has been gaining all week on the 7 day view.
(1) Historically undecided break towards the incumbent
(2) Saying "I don't know" may be code for "I know I shouldn't like him, but he's OK"
(3) Undecided broke towards Trump in 2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
However given RCP got the popular vote more accurately than 538 in 2016 you can also look at their figures tonight which is 8%.
IBID/TIPP tonight meanwhile has Biden's popular vote lead at 5%, 49.5% to 44.5%
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
That's what Nate Silver expects will be the result on election day. It is NOT the current polls.
France
11/10/20 16,101
18/10 20 29,837
Italy
11/10/20 5,456
18/10/20 11,705
Poland
11/10/20 4,178
18/10/20 8,536
are all looking worrying.
All three doing significantly less testing than the UK.
https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/
One downside of an online ballot is the inability to draw a cock and balls.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-full
If that is correct, then it's 50-50 between Trump and Biden.
However, if we compare that to the polling average, that would require that the pollsters were out by 6.4%. (I.e. 8.9% - the 2.5% required to get to a 50-50 chance of a Trump victory.)
That would more than twice the largest ever aggregate polling error.
Honourable mention to Belgium pretending to be a country of five times its actual size.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
With Clinton 48.5 and Trump on 44.9
People make a song and dance about the best way of rationing tests but the best thing to do, as we have known all year, is to Test, Test, Test.
If you are rationing your tests to only those whom you most suspect need them you may catch a better proportion from your limited testing quantity but you will miss a lot of people from asymptomatic spread.
If you have much more testing available and open it to more of the 'worried' then even if the vast majority of those are the 'worried well' the minority who were unwell that you caught break the chains of transmission there ... Plus lead you to potential new clusters to investigate that you didn't know about.
Are they making any gains on beds set aside for, say, influenza patients? (Apologies haven’t read the article...)
Picking brains on here because Biden looks unbelievable value - I'm desperate for (logical) reasons not to put a huge bet on!
What do you think about the high "enthusiasm" level of Trumps vote? Isn't that what you'd expect if undecideds weren't breaking for him?
Also, the final IBID/TIPP poll in 16 gave Trump 45, Clinton 43. Actual result 46,48. That suggests the undecideds broke 5-1 against Trump.
You could kill yourself in Frankfurt.
So requested ballots are bugger all since people aren't allowed to request them but they can and have been queueing up to vote in person.
I expect it to have a leftist "Tories are evil" tilt - luvvie screenwriters almost always struggle to get Conservatives right, or don't want to - but I'll still be watching enthusiastically.
Yes it will be too late to halt the rise in infections.
No it won't be too late to have an impact since the level of infections will need to be brought back down.
1) to identify any many cases as possible (as soon as possible) so they can self isolate and cease spreading the virus (obviously the symptomatic should be isolating anyway, but not the routine testing), and to assist contact tracing.
2) to accurately trace prevalence of the virus to inform national (and local) policy/strategy.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/TX.html
It does apparently report returned ballots (558,017 so far) but there have also been 3,322,987 In-person votes.
All this is on the electproject website.
Paris now looks much like London did then.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html
I'm unclear why you think that's compatible with R being below 1. To me it seems to contradict your assertion.