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Early voting in the second biggest state now at 43.7% of the 2016 total – and there’s still more tha

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 18 in General
Early voting in the second biggest state now at 43.7% of the 2016 total – and there’s still more than two weeks to go – politicalbetting.com

Amazing. Now the equivalent of 43.2% of the Texas 2016 vote have actually cast their ballotshttps://t.co/ASYedZxLDf pic.twitter.com/ghg91QUwiU

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Spurs throw it away
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,403
    That is amazing. And will presumably be a massive blow to those trying c
    voter suppression.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,035
    Spurs being well all spursy....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,152
    edited October 18

    Spurs being well all spursy....

    Bugger, I didn’t bother watching the second half!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,025
    This election may have the highest turnout for some time and, ironically, it’s probably Trump’s threats against the postal ballots that will be responsible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,850
    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,416
    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,316
    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
  • I warned it was far too early to be saying we'd got on top of the virus.
  • tlg86 said:

    Spurs being well all spursy....

    Bugger, I didn’t bother watching the second half!
    Apart from Bale falling flat on his face when he should have scored, and West Ham scoring all three goals in the 82nd, 85th, and 94 minutes (last kick of the game) to level the game, you did not miss much
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,074

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    I sat the mid terms out because I predicted the one in a century high turnout and decided that meant the pollsters turnout models would be fucked.

    As it turned out the pollsters were pretty damn accurate and I missed out on lumping on a Dem tsunami.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,723
    Breaking: The UK could face shortages of sports shoes, track pants and stretchy leggings as retailers and suppliers struggle to keep up with a pandemic-related surge in demand.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,035
    edited October 18


    This has been a common occurrence, by the time PHE notice an area has a problem and start to react, the infection have already peaked.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,025
    edited October 18
    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,035
    edited October 18
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: The UK could face shortages of sports shoes, track pants and stretchy leggings as retailers and suppliers struggle to keep up with a pandemic-related surge in demand.

    What do you mean "could"....have they not tried buying any sports gear for the past 6 months.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,074



    This has been a common occurrence, by the time PHE notice an area has a problem and start to react, the infection have already peaked.
    Note the highly suspicious weekend notch in the data though. Whilst less people get tested at the weekend it stretches belief given the levels before and after that it dropped that much.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,323
    FPT

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

    "There will be a short delay in publishing today’s figures. We will update shortly.
    We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.

    This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.

    The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.

    We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times."


    The Scottish government's priority is clearly how to leverage Coronavirus to win Independence, rather than to cooperate to control the virus across Britain.

    Bunch of rogues and charlatans.

    Someone gives a clear and prompt explanation of a practical issue and a practical solution and a further practical problem (which is very well known - UKG frailure to communicate with the devolved institutions) and that is your reaction?
    It's the Andy Murray treatment in reverse. Whenever anything is a problem, or goes wrong, is linked to the UK identity, whenever anything goes right the Scottishness is emphasised.

    I bet if/when the lab is working well they will only mention that it's in Scotland.

    It's a dishonest use of language for political ends. A focus on division is not helpful now.
    An interesting question that we could try and answer is this; if Nicola Sturgeon had wanted to follow the strategy of Jacinda Adern in Scotland, could she have done so with the powers she has ?

    Does Nicola Sturgeon have the power to quarantine all arrivals by flight/ship/road to Scotland for 2 weeks, and to introduce full lockdown measures for all non-essential businesses?

    I would have thought she did, but I am happy to be corrected.

    Once individuals enter Scotland, can she quarantine them? This actually seems less stringent than what Drakeford is trying to, which is physically prevent some arrivals from England entering Wales. So, if Drakeford has the power to do this, I would have thought Sturgeon had the power to quarantine entrants.
    I don't think it makes sense to try to achieve zero covid in only one part of an island our size. Only an all-island approach makes sense as you can then take advantage of the natural frontier at the coast.

    Sturgeon only talked about zero covid to create another point of difference. If she'd been serious about it she would have needed to lead and convince the rest of Britain's political leadership to follow.
    What happened in Ireland? A more natural comparison to NZ is the island of Ireland.

    At one point, the North had a stated zero Covid policy -- did the RoI?

  • If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,025

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: The UK could face shortages of sports shoes, track pants and stretchy leggings as retailers and suppliers struggle to keep up with a pandemic-related surge in demand.

    What do you mean "could"....have they not tried buying any sports gear for the past 6 months.
    DWF going bust didn't exactly help.
  • How are cases looking in London?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,416



    This has been a common occurrence, by the time PHE notice an area has a problem and start to react, the infection have already peaked.
    The number one metric for driving R is fear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,764
    edited October 18

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
  • IanB2 said:

    Breaking: The UK could face shortages of sports shoes, track pants and stretchy leggings as retailers and suppliers struggle to keep up with a pandemic-related surge in demand.

    Is that for the Spurs training ground?
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 111
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 3,124

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    Even if all those extra voters have broken no more towards Biden than the polls at present suggest, it's still very good news for Biden. It greatly reduces Trump's ability to turn things arounds through a shift in opinion by polling day. If most votes have been cast before we get to polling day, and up to the last week Biden maintained a lead around the present level, then shifts in opinion in the last few days matter for little.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,035



    This has been a common occurrence, by the time PHE notice an area has a problem and start to react, the infection have already peaked.
    The number one metric for driving R is fear.
    I am increasingly convinced that our digitally interconnected lives help drive people to react. It doesn't take too many posts on a few WhatsApp or Facebook groups of people in your social circle testing positive (or do you know Bob, Fred's brother's mate has got it) to drive people to take action.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,041


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
  • HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
  • As I commented last night, here in Seattle yours truly's ballot arrived in yesterday's mail, and I've already marked it, signed & dated the return envelope, and will return it to King County Elections this Tuesday, when I'll be heading down to observe the Logic & Accuracy test of the county's vote tabulation system.

    Generally tend to wait until much closer to Election Day before returning my ballot, just in case something transpires that might change my vote on a particular candidate race or ballot measure (have about three dozen different things to vote upon on my ballot).

    HOWEVER, this election I am returning my ballot as soon as possible - and am urging all my friends to do the same.

    That helps the election workers to process as many ballots as possible BEFORE Election Day (though no votes are tabulated until after 8pm Nov 3).

    But even MORE important, it helps ensure that my ballot WILL be counted and NOT get lost in the shuffle somehow.

    NOTE that in King County and across WA State, voters can check on line to see the status of their ballot. Ballot Tracker tells individual:

    >> if ballot has been issued to them

    >> if returned ballot has been received by county elections office

    >> if ballot has been approved for counting, based on signature check of EVERY returned ballot

    >> OR if ballot has been CHALLENGED by election workers due to missing sig, sig that doesn't match on file, or some other reason.

    >> IF ballot is challenged, then voters have until November 23 to submit required information, which can be done in most cases by sending back form that counties mail to voters whose ballots have been challenged.

    >> IF the submitted sigs or other info match or otherwise meet requirements, then ballot is approved for tabulation

    >> Note that WA counties will certify results on November 24; and WA Secretary of State will certify for state by December 3

    >> Further note that any required or requested recounts will take place after certification, with new certs issued when recounting is concluded.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,723

    How are cases looking in London?

    Peaky
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,394
    edited October 18
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317865405885632514?s=20

    twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317837308280950785?s=20

    IBD/TIPP National GE
    Biden 50% (-)
    Trump 45% (+2)

    Change from yesterday.

    YouGov Arizona
    Biden 50% (+3)
    Trump 47% (+3)

    Change from 12th September.

    YouGov Wisconsin
    Biden 51% (+1)
    Trump 46% (-)

    Change from 23rd September.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,394
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    How do you know?
  • rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    It's a globalisation index, primarily, as such, I guess banking is regarded highly compared to manufacturing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,764
    edited October 18

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    How do you know?


  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927

    How are cases looking in London?

    They’ve basically been steady, maybe ticking up very slowly for the last week.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,022
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    How do you know?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,850

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
    So how are these early voters voting, if not by post? That’s a genuine question, I’m struggling to understand the intricacies here.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,394
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
    So how are these early voters voting, if not by post? That’s a genuine question, I’m struggling to understand the intricacies here.
    They vote as normal, just in advance, I believe.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:
    NJ and RI are among the LEAST rural states in the Union.

    In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927
    Re: the high turnout thing - i’ve suggested this before (who cares about repetition on this site 😉) but high Democrat turnout on the back of a desire to kick out Trump could be very bad for GOP in House and Senate. Because these voters are far more likely to vote Democrat down the ballot and also may not be being picked up by pollster models.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,913

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,394

    Roy_G_Biv said:
    NJ and RI are among the LEAST rural states in the Union.

    In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
    But how does that compare with Epping? :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 31,850

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
    So how are these early voters voting, if not by post? That’s a genuine question, I’m struggling to understand the intricacies here.
    They vote as normal, just in advance, I believe.
    So there’s no need for the extra certification and they can just be counted?
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 111

    Roy_G_Biv said:
    NJ and RI are among the LEAST rural states in the Union.

    In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
    That was the joke
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,675
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
    alex_ said:

    Re: the high turnout thing - i’ve suggested this before (who cares about repetition on this site 😉) but high Democrat turnout on the back of a desire to kick out Trump could be very bad for GOP in House and Senate. Because these voters are far more likely to vote Democrat down the ballot and also may not be being picked up by pollster models.

    Which is why the GOP have eliminated the straight ticket option in Texas in the hope that voters won’t bother to tick the Democrat box for every down-ballot race.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927

    Roy_G_Biv said:
    NJ and RI are among the LEAST rural states in the Union.

    In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
    I think it’s an in joke based on discussions about Epping Forest earlier.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,675

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    Ridding the world of a narcissistic sociopath in charge of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal is far more important than helping Brexiteers do damage control.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,764

    Roy_G_Biv said:
    NJ and RI are among the LEAST rural states in the Union.

    In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
    But how does that compare with Epping? :D
    They are states ie New Jersey population 8.882 million or Rhode Island population 1.059 million are closer to Essex as a whole, population 1.832 million than just Epping, population 11,047.

    In US terms Epping would be considered a small town
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,025
    rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.

    The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,416
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    Oh I bet some are extra voters.

    We already have one bet, do you want a secondary bet that turnout will be up on what it was last time? I predict turnout will be at least a percentage point higher than 2016, what do you say?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,489
    More evidence that Republicans think Trump is finished.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 10,394
    edited October 18
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
    So how are these early voters voting, if not by post? That’s a genuine question, I’m struggling to understand the intricacies here.
    They vote as normal, just in advance, I believe.
    So there’s no need for the extra certification and they can just be counted?
    Good question. I googled it and found the following:
    Texas voters can also vote before Election Day. The early voting period runs from Tuesday, October 13, 2020 to Friday, October 30, 2020, but dates and hours may vary based on where you live.

    What to bring

    You will be asked to show photo ID to vote in Texas. Acceptable forms include: Texas driver's license issued by the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS); Texas election ID certificate; Texas personal ID card; Texas handgun license; US military ID with photo; US citizenship certificate with photograph (doesn't need to be current); or a US passport. Forms must be current or expired less than four years. For voters aged 70 or older, the acceptable form of photo identification may be expired for any length of time if the identification is otherwise valid.

    Voters without ID: If you don't have ID and cannot obtain one due to a reasonable impediment, you'll need to sign a sworn statement that there is a reason why you don't have any of the accepted IDs, and present one of the following: certified birth certificate; valid voter registration certificate; or a current utility bill, government check, bank statement or paycheck, or government document with your name and an address. If you meet these requirements and are eligible to vote, you may vote in the election.

    If you don't have ID and do not have a reasonable impediment to obtaining one or did not bring ID to the polling place, you may cast a provisional ballot. In order to have the provisional ballot counted, you will be required to visit the voter registrar's office within six (6) calendar days of the date of the election to either present one of the forms of photo ID or submit a temporary affidavit, or, if applicable, qualify for the disability exemption, in the presence of the county voter registrar while attesting to the fact that you do not have any of the required photo IDs.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    US trade deal wouldn’t get through the House. The best hope for U.K. trade deals would be a Biden victory leading to more realism around the whole issue. And in the short medium and long term will improve prospects of U.K. trade deals with EU AND US. IMO
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,416

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    No a Biden victory will.

    Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.

    Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK R

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,025

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
    alex_ said:

    Re: the high turnout thing - i’ve suggested this before (who cares about repetition on this site 😉) but high Democrat turnout on the back of a desire to kick out Trump could be very bad for GOP in House and Senate. Because these voters are far more likely to vote Democrat down the ballot and also may not be being picked up by pollster models.

    Which is why the GOP have eliminated the straight ticket option in Texas in the hope that voters won’t bother to tick the Democrat box for every down-ballot race.
    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason?
    For if it prosper none dare call it treason.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,193

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    How do you know?
    There's a lot of data available in some states thanks to comparing to voter files, you can see how many are new voters.



    Elections experts warn that while the vote totals over the first three days reflect enthusiasm, so far the rolls indicate few first-time voters.


    The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.

    I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,



  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,913
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    US trade deal wouldn’t get through the House. The best hope for U.K. trade deals would be a Biden victory leading to more realism around the whole issue. And in the short medium and long term will improve prospects of U.K. trade deals with EU AND US. IMO
    I hope you are right. I was working on the premise that Trump would take both houses with him in the (hopefully unlikely) event of a (genuine) victory.
  • More evidence that Republicans think Trump is finished.

    Bet that Beto O'Rourke is wishing now he'd challenged Cornyn this year like Chuck Schumer & etc. wanted him to.

    Roy_G_Biv said:
    NJ and RI are among the LEAST rural states in the Union.

    In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
    But how does that compare with Epping? :D
    Not sure. But New Jersey is the Rodney Dangerfield of states, while Providence is fondly known (in Conn & Mass anyway) as the Armpit of New England.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,776
    rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    Bavaria does have a lot of auto industry, but saying "most of the German auto industry", is certainly over exaggerating. Stuttgart and state (Baden-Würtemburg) has a few big names and VW is based in Wolfsburg near Hannover, and that state (Niedersachsen) owns quite a big chunk of VW.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK Case summary

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,041

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    I suspect that the most important thing to deliver a trade agreement is the same party holding both the Presidency and Congress.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK R

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  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,416
    Malmesbury cool R chart. Is it possible to do a dual coloured heat fading? Ie one colour shading if below 1 and another colour shading if above 1?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK Positivity

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  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,675
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    There’s been a cap on Democratic performance in Texas for a long time and that cap has been less than 50%. But with exceptional turnout is it possible that cap would be broken? Maybe. Build that wall didn’t do a lot for Trump’s standing with the Latino population. Normally, not enough of them vote to matter. This could be the exception.
    alex_ said:

    Re: the high turnout thing - i’ve suggested this before (who cares about repetition on this site 😉) but high Democrat turnout on the back of a desire to kick out Trump could be very bad for GOP in House and Senate. Because these voters are far more likely to vote Democrat down the ballot and also may not be being picked up by pollster models.

    Which is why the GOP have eliminated the straight ticket option in Texas in the hope that voters won’t bother to tick the Democrat box for every down-ballot race.
    Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason?
    For if it prosper none dare call it treason.

    This kind of stuff is why the Tories’ attempts to abolish the Electoral Commission should make us all shudder.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK Hospitals

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  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    Oh I bet some are extra voters.

    We already have one bet, do you want a secondary bet that turnout will be up on what it was last time? I predict turnout will be at least a percentage point higher than 2016, what do you say?
    There will no doubt be voters who don’t normally vote due to the obstacles put in the way. But seeing these reports of multi hour queues may perversely have served as an inspiration. “If others can bear it, why shouldn’t I?”. I wonder if there’s almost a bit of a community spirit going in the queues.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    UK Deaths

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  • OT Roadkill -- new politics drama BBC1 9pm tonight

    Celebrating his win in a newspaper libel case, cabinet minister Peter Laurence is summoned to Downing Street to see PM Dawn Ellison, who reveals she is looking to promote him to an office of state. However, he is soon bought back down to earth with a bump when his special adviser Duncan Knock reveals an inmate in a women's prison is claiming to have a secret about his past that could affect his future.

    Thriller by David Hare, starring Hugh Laurie and Helen McCrory.

    https://www.radiotimes.com/tv-programme/e/mrg9jq/roadkill--series-1-episode-1/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 7,335
    London cases - absolute and scaled

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  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,693
    rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    A word of support for the German city I lived in, home of Mercedes and Porsche.
  • Re: early voting, candidates, parties & other interest groups urge their supporters to vote early as a way of a) ensuring the actually DO vote; and b) ensuring that these voters are NOT swayed by opposition attack ads OR last minute news stories or other adverse developments.

    This year, there is another, even more important reason: c) ensuring that votes of supporters are NOT lost because of long Election Day lines or other impediments.

    THIS is where Trumpsky's war on postal voting is likely to bite AGAINST him AND other Republicans on the ballot.

    In other words, the Putinists are suppressing THEIR voters - brilliant strategy!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,380
    FPT

    I don't think it makes sense to try to achieve zero covid in only one part of an island our size. Only an all-island approach makes sense as you can then take advantage of the natural frontier at the coast.

    Sturgeon only talked about zero covid to create another point of difference. If she'd been serious about it she would have needed to lead and convince the rest of Britain's political leadership to follow.

    Even Guernsey - currently one case from inbound travel (in quarantine) and with several tens of thousands of pounds in fines already levied for quarantine breaches and no deaths for 6 months - isn't trying for "Zero COVID' - its epidemiologically illiterate.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,776
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.

    The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
    I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 1,646
    edited October 18
    Speaking of vote suppression, the Putinist have come up with a new twist in OHIO.

    How? Because major vendor given contracts and responsibility for printing millions of absentee ballots for number of large counties such as Lucas (Toledo) and Summit (Akron) has NOT delivered ballots to counties on schedule.

    Which is HUGE problem for early voting IF voters do NOT get their ballots in a timely fashion. As every day lost due to printing delays is GOLDEN to the Trumpskyites.

    In this context, perhaps relevant that the vendor in question has until recently been flying a MAGA flag from the top of its building.

    Coincidence? What do YOU think???

    Bottom line: given this outrageous situation, appears based on polling & trends to be UNLIKELY that Biden can win the Buckeye State.

    UNLESS of course the anti-Trumpsky wave is so strong that it floats even the boats that Putinists have been working overtime to scuttle.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,041
    eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    Bavaria does have a lot of auto industry, but saying "most of the German auto industry", is certainly over exaggerating. Stuttgart and state (Baden-Würtemburg) has a few big names and VW is based in Wolfsburg near Hannover, and that state (Niedersachsen) owns quite a big chunk of VW.
    OK, maybe I'm exaggerating. A bit.

    But Munich is definitely more of a world City than Frankfurt. (Heck, I'd argue Berlin is too.)

    I'm basing this on the fact that Munich is (a) bigger, (b) has many more important German companies, (c) has a world famous cultural event, and (d) is simply much more important than Frankfurt.

    Frankfurt has the ECB. It has Deutsche Bank. It has the branch offices (a few hundred people) of Goldman Sachs and a few other US investment banks.

    Now, if you leave Frankfurt and head towards Heidelberg, you might find a few more things of interest (like a great University). But Frankfurt itself is a village, not a world City.

    It's simply not in the same tier as Stuttgard, Cologne, Munich, Berlin or Hamburg.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,913
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    I suspect that the most important thing to deliver a trade agreement is the same party holding both the Presidency and Congress.
    I did mention down thread that I assumed (an unlikely) Trump victory would likely (although not guaranteed) take both houses along with him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,025
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:


    If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows

    Alpha ++ London

    Alpha +

    Alpha Frankfurt

    Alpha - Munich

    Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg

    Beta

    Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester

    Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow

    Gamma Bristol

    High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds

    Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,





    Frankfurt above Munich.

    Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.

    Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
    In the early 70s my dad was based in Fallingbostal in the middle of the Hohne heath. The villages and towns around us were reasonably prosperous but nothing exceptional. It was only when we went down to Munich that you got some concept of the Wirtschaftswunder. It just seemed incredibly, fantastically rich with Mercs and Porsches everywhere.

    The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
    I'm sure people who grew up in Bacup or Todmorden 40 or 50 years would say something similar about a visit to London.
    I was in London about 1970. Apart from an enjoyable trip to Highbury and watching Paint your Wagon in the cinema it made no impact at all other than being dirty and slightly depressed.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,693
    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    I saw a video from a 538 guy who reckons Democrats have a 30 odd % chance in Texas.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,403

    UK R

    image
    image

    Can you snip the end off the moving average when there is incomplete data? It makes people think R/cases are falling when they aren't...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927
    edited October 18
    I guess the big unknown in a lot of the analysis of early voting and registrations is the size of the “Republicans against Trump” group. Because I imagine that traditional analyses assume that Republicans will either vote for their candidate or stay at home (and vice versa). But things could be very different this time. And if so render the analysis useless.

    Another question is how this effect (if sizeable) might impact on pollster modelling. Do they weight for party registration? I suppose in the latter case it might not matter - but what are the polls showing about people voting against their party registration?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,723

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    No a Biden victory will.

    Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.

    Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
    The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
  • HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with Biden

    However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 148
    Still dont really understand why people post their 'fave' poll results and then get hit with counter 'faves' from the US when the whole set roll in neatly hours earlier on 538.

    Anyhow interested in thoughts on this scenario - if Trump did pull of a surprise and keep the Presidency (not impossible) BUT loses the Senate (pretty good chance) and the House stays Republican (highly probable. What does a second term Presidency look like when he cant get anything through Congress and actually all the legislation is Dem legislation coming from Congress?

    He has (way too much) leeway on foreign affairs but with neither House he cant do anything domestically. He can just veto, or he can work out how to compromise(?), or just pop with frustration?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,723

    OT Roadkill -- new politics drama BBC1 9pm tonight

    Celebrating his win in a newspaper libel case, cabinet minister Peter Laurence is summoned to Downing Street to see PM Dawn Ellison, who reveals she is looking to promote him to an office of state. However, he is soon bought back down to earth with a bump when his special adviser Duncan Knock reveals an inmate in a women's prison is claiming to have a secret about his past that could affect his future.

    Thriller by David Hare, starring Hugh Laurie and Helen McCrory.

    https://www.radiotimes.com/tv-programme/e/mrg9jq/roadkill--series-1-episode-1/

    Oh yes. In the bag. Thanks for flagging. Who needs atomized globalist Netflix? Not us.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,380

    FPT

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

    "There will be a short delay in publishing today’s figures. We will update shortly.
    We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.

    This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.

    The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.

    We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times."


    The Scottish government's priority is clearly how to leverage Coronavirus to win Independence, rather than to cooperate to control the virus across Britain.

    Bunch of rogues and charlatans.

    Someone gives a clear and prompt explanation of a practical issue and a practical solution and a further practical problem (which is very well known - UKG frailure to communicate with the devolved institutions) and that is your reaction?
    It's the Andy Murray treatment in reverse. Whenever anything is a problem, or goes wrong, is linked to the UK identity, whenever anything goes right the Scottishness is emphasised.

    I bet if/when the lab is working well they will only mention that it's in Scotland.

    It's a dishonest use of language for political ends. A focus on division is not helpful now.
    An interesting question that we could try and answer is this; if Nicola Sturgeon had wanted to follow the strategy of Jacinda Adern in Scotland, could she have done so with the powers she has ?

    Does Nicola Sturgeon have the power to quarantine all arrivals by flight/ship/road to Scotland for 2 weeks, and to introduce full lockdown measures for all non-essential businesses?

    I would have thought she did, but I am happy to be corrected.

    Once individuals enter Scotland, can she quarantine them? This actually seems less stringent than what Drakeford is trying to, which is physically prevent some arrivals from England entering Wales. So, if Drakeford has the power to do this, I would have thought Sturgeon had the power to quarantine entrants.
    I don't think it makes sense to try to achieve zero covid in only one part of an island our size. Only an all-island approach makes sense as you can then take advantage of the natural frontier at the coast.

    Sturgeon only talked about zero covid to create another point of difference. If she'd been serious about it she would have needed to lead and convince the rest of Britain's political leadership to follow.
    What happened in Ireland? A more natural comparison to NZ is the island of Ireland.

    At one point, the North had a stated zero Covid policy -- did the RoI?
    There was a push from it from some of their scientists:

    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/expert-claims-ireland-is-very-close-to-joining-virus-free-new-zealand-with-zero-covid-19-cases/ar-BB15eRk7

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-needs-to-move-to-zero-covid-policy-to-avoid-catastrophe-scientists-say-1.4321947

    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/zero-covid-and-how-we-can-achieve-it-together-39434307.html

    But I don't think the government formally adopted it.
  • alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    Oh I bet some are extra voters.

    We already have one bet, do you want a secondary bet that turnout will be up on what it was last time? I predict turnout will be at least a percentage point higher than 2016, what do you say?
    There will no doubt be voters who don’t normally vote due to the obstacles put in the way. But seeing these reports of multi hour queues may perversely have served as an inspiration. “If others can bear it, why shouldn’t I?”. I wonder if there’s almost a bit of a community spirit going in the queues.
    I can well remember the long lines at King County Elections in Seattle back in days before 2008 general election. Which featured disproportionate share (for King Co) of Black people.

    Was down there observing election for the Democrats. On EDay was looking out the window at the line, and chatting with one of the Republican observers. This fellow was smart, a committed conservative and hard-core partisan. He KNEW that line was NOT good news for his side.

    SO what was his reaction, seeing all these people patiently waiting to vote, most of whom were obviously NOT your average Republican?

    He said he found the site INSPIRATIONAL as as citizen and an American.

    God Bless America!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,927
    Q

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    I suspect that the most important thing to deliver a trade agreement is the same party holding both the Presidency and Congress.
    I did mention down thread that I assumed (an unlikely) Trump victory would likely (although not guaranteed) take both houses along with him.
    Will it? The Senate, yes, but the House will be more reflective of the National share of the vote, no?
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    No a Biden victory will.

    Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.

    Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
    The way you play these fantasies at us with such a straight bat, it is almost as if you really believe Brexit might be beneficial.
    To be fair it may well be but equally it may not

    Time will tell
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,723

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    I saw a video from a 538 guy who reckons Democrats have a 30 odd % chance in Texas.
    That's about the odds too. If Texas goes, Biden will be circa 400 EC. I so want that sort of result, and I feel it might be on, but I'm far from banking on it. It could still be a grind.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,776

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
    So how are these early voters voting, if not by post? That’s a genuine question, I’m struggling to understand the intricacies here.
    They vote as normal, just in advance, I believe.

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far, all the evidence is that early voters back Biden in disproportionate numbers.

    And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.

    Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.

    Texas, which has almost no postal voting. is almost certain to declare on the night.
    So how are these early voters voting, if not by post? That’s a genuine question, I’m struggling to understand the intricacies here.
    They vote as normal, just in advance, I believe.
    I don't know how it works in Texas, but in Germany you can just turn up at a town hall and vote in advance. For the voter it is exactly like voting in person on the day but it called a "postal vote"! This is because the early ballot papers are processed in the same way as postal votes, put into a locked ballot box and stored in a locked room until the votes are counted.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,480
    "So far, the only response of the lockdown enthusiasts has been an attempt to smear the Great Barrington authors with allegations they are the tools of Right-wing doctrinaires or antisemites. If there was a better answer than abuse, we would no doubt have heard it."

    Lord Sumption (Mail)
  • HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with Biden

    However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway
    IMHO a Biden presidency gives BETTER likelihood for UK-US trade deal than Trumpsky 2nd term.

    In part because Trumpsky is just about the WORST negotiator in the world.

    Besides being a congenital liar and livelong con artist, he's also a serial bankrupt who only stays afloat via VERY creative accounting.
  • HYUFD said:

    I wonder who all the extra voters will be backing? I'm guessing Biden but pollsters will struggle if they use normal turnout weightings.

    At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?

    Of course all these votes are locked in now.

    They are not extra voters, they are mainly Democratic voters who voted on the day in 2016 who are voting early this time due to Covid, most Republican voters will still be voting on the day
    By then there will only be a handful supporting Trump as he goes into history as an utter disaster verging on insanity
    Are you sure you want a Biden victory? A Trump victory, I suspect would be more helpful to Johnson in securing a swift trade deal with the US.
    I categorically do not want Trump in office and Boris or whoever succeeds him will have to deal with Biden

    However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway
    IMHO a Biden presidency gives BETTER likelihood for UK-US trade deal than Trumpsky 2nd term.

    In part because Trumpsky is just about the WORST negotiator in the world.

    Besides being a congenital liar and livelong con artist, he's also a serial bankrupt who only stays afloat via VERY creative accounting.
    I agree and the sooner the US comes to it's senses and sends Trump to a resounding defeat the better
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,092
    The national R is still going down ever so slightly which is good news. I think the R in England is actually below 1 now which is a positive development and this is with just the local lockdown measures rather than the tier system which introduced more restrictions to more parts of England.
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