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Early voting in the second biggest state now at 43.7% of the 2016 total – and there’s still more tha
Early voting in the second biggest state now at 43.7% of the 2016 total – and there’s still more than two weeks to go – politicalbetting.com
Amazing. Now the equivalent of 43.2% of the Texas 2016 vote have actually cast their ballotshttps://t.co/ASYedZxLDf pic.twitter.com/ghg91QUwiU
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voter suppression.
And the evidence is that high turnout is also good for Biden.
Should we therefore be seeking value in Texas as a possible Dem gain? It wouldn’t probably be declared on the night but this really doesn’t look good for the orange man.
At this rate I wonder if pre-election turnout might exceed 100% of last time by polling day?
Of course all these votes are locked in now.
As it turned out the pollsters were pretty damn accurate and I missed out on lumping on a Dem tsunami.
This has been a common occurrence, by the time PHE notice an area has a problem and start to react, the infection have already peaked.
At one point, the North had a stated zero Covid policy -- did the RoI?
If you want to compare the division in the UK with a country of high devolution and cooperative government compare this.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network#:~:text= v t e Loughborough,Field ... 1 more rows
Alpha ++ London
Alpha +
Alpha Frankfurt
Alpha - Munich
Beta + Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg
Beta
Beta - Stuttgart, Manchester
Gamma + Belfast, Glasgow
Gamma Bristol
High Sufficiency Birmingham, Leeds
Sufficiency Aberdeen, Cardiff, Dortmund, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Leipzig, Liverpool, Mannheim, Newcastle, Nottingham, Sheffield, Southampton,
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317837308280950785?s=20
Lol. Frankfurt has a few banks, but is otherwise a village.
Munich, on the other hand, has most of the German auto industry, plus Siemens and Allianz. Plus, Linde, Munich Re, MAN. And that's just what I could think of in about 10 seconds.
Generally tend to wait until much closer to Election Day before returning my ballot, just in case something transpires that might change my vote on a particular candidate race or ballot measure (have about three dozen different things to vote upon on my ballot).
HOWEVER, this election I am returning my ballot as soon as possible - and am urging all my friends to do the same.
That helps the election workers to process as many ballots as possible BEFORE Election Day (though no votes are tabulated until after 8pm Nov 3).
But even MORE important, it helps ensure that my ballot WILL be counted and NOT get lost in the shuffle somehow.
NOTE that in King County and across WA State, voters can check on line to see the status of their ballot. Ballot Tracker tells individual:
>> if ballot has been issued to them
>> if returned ballot has been received by county elections office
>> if ballot has been approved for counting, based on signature check of EVERY returned ballot
>> OR if ballot has been CHALLENGED by election workers due to missing sig, sig that doesn't match on file, or some other reason.
>> IF ballot is challenged, then voters have until November 23 to submit required information, which can be done in most cases by sending back form that counties mail to voters whose ballots have been challenged.
>> IF the submitted sigs or other info match or otherwise meet requirements, then ballot is approved for tabulation
>> Note that WA counties will certify results on November 24; and WA Secretary of State will certify for state by December 3
>> Further note that any required or requested recounts will take place after certification, with new certs issued when recounting is concluded.
Biden 50% (-)
Trump 45% (+2)
Change from yesterday.
YouGov Arizona
Biden 50% (+3)
Trump 47% (+3)
Change from 12th September.
YouGov Wisconsin
Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 46% (-)
Change from 23rd September.
https://twitter.com/MysteryPollster/status/1316893716687278081?s=20
In 2010 census, New Jersey rural pop = 5.3% of total (ranked 49th) while Rhode Island = 9.3% (44th)
In US terms Epping would be considered a small town
The only thing I have seen like it was in Canary Warf in the mid 80s. Until then it was obvious that the Germans were building an economy the likes of which we could only dream of.
We already have one bet, do you want a secondary bet that turnout will be up on what it was last time? I predict turnout will be at least a percentage point higher than 2016, what do you say?
https://twitter.com/startelegram/status/1317789745309749248?s=21
Biden is a deal maker and he can get a deal through Congress.
Trump is a narcissist who hates compromise and won't be able to get anything through Congress.
For if it prosper none dare call it treason.
https://twitter.com/AdamSerwer/status/1317181627525640194
The Democrats are cannibalising their EV and ED votes, and not by the overwhelming margins they need.
I wouldn't normally quote Democrat hacks but even Nate Silver realises this,
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
Celebrating his win in a newspaper libel case, cabinet minister Peter Laurence is summoned to Downing Street to see PM Dawn Ellison, who reveals she is looking to promote him to an office of state. However, he is soon bought back down to earth with a bump when his special adviser Duncan Knock reveals an inmate in a women's prison is claiming to have a secret about his past that could affect his future.
Thriller by David Hare, starring Hugh Laurie and Helen McCrory.
https://www.radiotimes.com/tv-programme/e/mrg9jq/roadkill--series-1-episode-1/
This year, there is another, even more important reason: c) ensuring that votes of supporters are NOT lost because of long Election Day lines or other impediments.
THIS is where Trumpsky's war on postal voting is likely to bite AGAINST him AND other Republicans on the ballot.
In other words, the Putinists are suppressing THEIR voters - brilliant strategy!
How? Because major vendor given contracts and responsibility for printing millions of absentee ballots for number of large counties such as Lucas (Toledo) and Summit (Akron) has NOT delivered ballots to counties on schedule.
Which is HUGE problem for early voting IF voters do NOT get their ballots in a timely fashion. As every day lost due to printing delays is GOLDEN to the Trumpskyites.
In this context, perhaps relevant that the vendor in question has until recently been flying a MAGA flag from the top of its building.
Coincidence? What do YOU think???
Bottom line: given this outrageous situation, appears based on polling & trends to be UNLIKELY that Biden can win the Buckeye State.
UNLESS of course the anti-Trumpsky wave is so strong that it floats even the boats that Putinists have been working overtime to scuttle.
But Munich is definitely more of a world City than Frankfurt. (Heck, I'd argue Berlin is too.)
I'm basing this on the fact that Munich is (a) bigger, (b) has many more important German companies, (c) has a world famous cultural event, and (d) is simply much more important than Frankfurt.
Frankfurt has the ECB. It has Deutsche Bank. It has the branch offices (a few hundred people) of Goldman Sachs and a few other US investment banks.
Now, if you leave Frankfurt and head towards Heidelberg, you might find a few more things of interest (like a great University). But Frankfurt itself is a village, not a world City.
It's simply not in the same tier as Stuttgard, Cologne, Munich, Berlin or Hamburg.
Another question is how this effect (if sizeable) might impact on pollster modelling. Do they weight for party registration? I suppose in the latter case it might not matter - but what are the polls showing about people voting against their party registration?
However, I am not enamoured by a US trade deal anyway
Anyhow interested in thoughts on this scenario - if Trump did pull of a surprise and keep the Presidency (not impossible) BUT loses the Senate (pretty good chance) and the House stays Republican (highly probable. What does a second term Presidency look like when he cant get anything through Congress and actually all the legislation is Dem legislation coming from Congress?
He has (way too much) leeway on foreign affairs but with neither House he cant do anything domestically. He can just veto, or he can work out how to compromise(?), or just pop with frustration?
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/expert-claims-ireland-is-very-close-to-joining-virus-free-new-zealand-with-zero-covid-19-cases/ar-BB15eRk7
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/ireland-needs-to-move-to-zero-covid-policy-to-avoid-catastrophe-scientists-say-1.4321947
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/zero-covid-and-how-we-can-achieve-it-together-39434307.html
But I don't think the government formally adopted it.
Was down there observing election for the Democrats. On EDay was looking out the window at the line, and chatting with one of the Republican observers. This fellow was smart, a committed conservative and hard-core partisan. He KNEW that line was NOT good news for his side.
SO what was his reaction, seeing all these people patiently waiting to vote, most of whom were obviously NOT your average Republican?
He said he found the site INSPIRATIONAL as as citizen and an American.
God Bless America!
Time will tell
Lord Sumption (Mail)
In part because Trumpsky is just about the WORST negotiator in the world.
Besides being a congenital liar and livelong con artist, he's also a serial bankrupt who only stays afloat via VERY creative accounting.