A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections – political
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Labour five point lead0
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English Football League clubs have rejected the Premier League's proposed £50m rescue package for League One and Two clubs, saying it "falls some way short" of the required amount.0
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SAGE are very clear "Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels ofFrancisUrquhart said:
Leading politicians are arguing for a single 2 week circuit breaker, based on results of the mathematical modelling which don't appear convincing at all.noneoftheabove said:
But you write off the circuit breakers as after 2 weeks everything is magically ok.FrancisUrquhart said:
Again, I would say the response isn't all negative, but very patchy. Testing has increased, but not enough for the September back to school spike, but seems back to being enough now. PPE seems to have been stockpiled for the winter. Plenty of CPAP and Ventilators. Despite they flawed initial direction, they did get the app done for the 2nd wave.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is the most disappointing thing about the government, they've wasted the summer when they should have been prepping for the winter second wave.FrancisUrquhart said:
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.FrancisUrquhart said:For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak.
Some of us have been banging on it for months.
Absolutely could have done more and better, but my point is I am not convinced the real steps that need to be taken to "fix test and trace" are something that can be built in 6 months. Nobody but South Korea has it. We know the tracking apps are failing to really work in every country they have been deployed.
People are now promising these magic bullets, lets just have a 2 week shutdown or if only I was in charge of the contact tracing it would work.
My take is the reality is, we have to prepare to live with this for another 12 months of this. There is no magic bullet. We need to be honest and realistic about what actually is possible and implement strategies that work across this long time period.
That is not what SAGE or anyone serious is saying. They say regular 2 week circuit breaks are a way of navigating through the next 12 months that allow either fewer deaths or looser restrictions for most of that period, or a mix of the two.
If they were arguing for regular short lockdowns that is different and more honest about the realities. My personal preference is still for a load of targeted measures which we keep in place regardless of the change in rates for the foreseeable future. Minimize "confusion", no rushes of stop /starts as people dash to the pub for the first time and the last time, make it the new norm.
We will also know which businesses can't survive under this regime and target support to them.
Again stop / start, nobody is quite sure who can make it work under that methodology.
incidence."
If Starmer is calling to follow the science then regular short lockdowns are what the scientists are/were calling for.0 -
Two different things. They have suggested this as a potential long term coping strategy from the start, but they specifically suggested a single circuit breaker at half term and which Starmer has called for and Sturgeon has kinda of enacted.noneoftheabove said:
SAGE are very clear "Multiple circuit-breaks might be necessary to maintain low levels ofFrancisUrquhart said:
Leading politicians are arguing for a single 2 week circuit breaker, based on results of the mathematical modelling which don't appear convincing at all.noneoftheabove said:
But you write off the circuit breakers as after 2 weeks everything is magically ok.FrancisUrquhart said:
Again, I would say the response isn't all negative, but very patchy. Testing has increased, but not enough for the September back to school spike, but seems back to being enough now. PPE seems to have been stockpiled for the winter. Plenty of CPAP and Ventilators. Despite they flawed initial direction, they did get the app done for the 2nd wave.TheScreamingEagles said:
This is the most disappointing thing about the government, they've wasted the summer when they should have been prepping for the winter second wave.FrancisUrquhart said:
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.FrancisUrquhart said:For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak.
Some of us have been banging on it for months.
Absolutely could have done more and better, but my point is I am not convinced the real steps that need to be taken to "fix test and trace" are something that can be built in 6 months. Nobody but South Korea has it. We know the tracking apps are failing to really work in every country they have been deployed.
People are now promising these magic bullets, lets just have a 2 week shutdown or if only I was in charge of the contact tracing it would work.
My take is the reality is, we have to prepare to live with this for another 12 months of this. There is no magic bullet. We need to be honest and realistic about what actually is possible and implement strategies that work across this long time period.
That is not what SAGE or anyone serious is saying. They say regular 2 week circuit breaks are a way of navigating through the next 12 months that allow either fewer deaths or looser restrictions for most of that period, or a mix of the two.
If they were arguing for regular short lockdowns that is different and more honest about the realities. My personal preference is still for a load of targeted measures which we keep in place regardless of the change in rates for the foreseeable future. Minimize "confusion", no rushes of stop /starts as people dash to the pub for the first time and the last time, make it the new norm.
We will also know which businesses can't survive under this regime and target support to them.
Again stop / start, nobody is quite sure who can make it work under that methodology.
incidence."
If Starmer is calling to follow the science then regular short lockdowns are what the scientists are/were calling for.0 -
She is resigning from the Shadow Cabinet. She is still a Labour MPCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MGreenwoodWW/status/1316776122462474240
Keir loses another MP.0 -
It has little effect on mine.noneoftheabove said:
Err, or turn off the app?rcs1000 said:
Clever. No-one wants to be out the house with a dead phone battery, so it effectively forces you not to socialise for long.Gallowgate said:Ever since the last update, the NHS COVID-19 app has been using 50% of my battery. Not ideal...
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Basically because there was zero for the Championship. Its a tricky one as over half the Champ clubs business plan is billionaires gambling £30m a year in the hope to get to the Prem. Not sure what would be fair here at all.FrancisUrquhart said:English Football League clubs have rejected the Premier League's proposed £50m rescue package for League One and Two clubs, saying it "falls some way short" of the required amount.
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"We have clearance Clarence! Roger Roger! What's our vector Victor?"IshmaelZ said:
What's your favourite gag in Airplane? I've always liked the Pinocchio one.Philip_Thompson said:
Some people who ignorantly think the UK is a small country and that the EU is an economic titan believe that we need a deal with the EU on any terms.Gallowgate said:
What has confidence got to do with the outcome?Philip_Thompson said:
Walking away from the EU won't be a failure, it would be an act of supreme confidence.Razedabode said:The government is utterly crumbling now.
Not only have they fecked up the response to the pandemic, why am I convinced Johnson will attempt to walk away with no deal from the EU.
January looks bleaker than ever.
We don't. The UK is a large economy and will be fine whatever happens.0 -
He's allowing them to purge themselves. Modern Stalinism.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MGreenwoodWW/status/1316776122462474240
Keir loses another MP.0 -
I have rather more sympathy with Twitter on this than Facebook - they're pretty aggressive in pulling hacked content from their site, mostly because they've gotten into trouble with people sharing hacked photos of celebrities in various states of undress. If they're doing what they would be doing with any hacked content, according to rules that are applied uniformly, then that's their business. (WRT to the Biden tax returns, the source of the leak is fairly widely known, and it wasn't a hacker.)FrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Facebook I am much more troubled by. Because they are much more opaque about what content is shown and why.
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Good spot by MaxPB - there was a mistake in the code.LostPassword said:
Is this a tests/people tested difference for the denominator?MaxPB said:
On the positivity graph, I'm not sure that's correct. For example, on the 12th there were 237,638 tests and 16,933 positive results. That's a rate of 7.1% but the graph shows 16%. I've lost access to the data so I can't see what's going on either.Malmesbury said:UK cases summary
Revised chart
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Twitter didn't pull the NHS documents, screenshots are still there now from blue check marks. My point is they aren't applying the rules consistently.rcs1000 said:
I have rather more sympathy with Twitter on this than Facebook - they're pretty aggressive in pulling hacked content from their site, mostly because they've gotten into trouble with people sharing hacked photos of celebrities in various states of undress. If they're doing what they would be doing with any hacked content, according to rules that are applied uniformly, then that's their business. (WRT to the Biden tax returns, the source of the leak is fairly widely known, and it wasn't a hacker.)FrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Facebook I am much more troubled by. Because they are much more opaque about what content is shown and why.
It wasn't even questioned if the NHS documents were real or had been altered nor people had an issue that they were from a hack. It was deemed in the public interest.
Initially twitter / facebook claimed it was all about stopping the spread of these links to "fake news" sites, which are deliberately made to appear to look like legit well known media outlets but in fact aren't (basically using the techniques of phishing emails).0 -
Guillotine for Grayling, then ?IshmaelZ said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/15/police-raid-french-health-ministers-home-office-covid-negligence/
So in France it is illegal for Ministers to be fucking useless, and they can get nicked for it. Fantastic law.1 -
IBID/TIPP's new national poll has Biden 50% and Trump 42% and Jorgensen and Hawkins combined on 3%, so where are the missing 5%?stodge said:Evening all
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
If they are all shy Trump's then it would be Biden 50% and Trump 47% and Biden's national lead would be just 1% more than Hillary's and then the state polling makes more sense0 -
I'm not an expert on playing poker. But my understanding is that most hands are never shown; good poker players develop a sense of when to fold.Pulpstar said:
You don't push all in with 2 7 offsuit.Philip_Thompson said:Gallowgate said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1316784661264244737?s=21Beibheirli_C said:Is Europe lying at our feet yet waiting Boris to claim his glorious victory?
I have not been keeping up today ...
One side or the other in this seems to be misreading the situation, possibly very badly.1 -
It is interesting how people like things according to if-my-side-does-themFrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
The Guardian using the phone-messaging-pin-set-to-default trick to read peoples messages.
Assange and Wikileaks were the toast of the left - when they were embarrassing George Bush. When they started embarrassing Obama they lost their luster. And may literally get the death penalty for embracing Hilary Clinton.
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I was under Over.....Beibheirli_C said:
"We have clearance Clarence! Roger Roger! What's our vector Victor?"IshmaelZ said:
What's your favourite gag in Airplane? I've always liked the Pinocchio one.Philip_Thompson said:
Some people who ignorantly think the UK is a small country and that the EU is an economic titan believe that we need a deal with the EU on any terms.Gallowgate said:
What has confidence got to do with the outcome?Philip_Thompson said:
Walking away from the EU won't be a failure, it would be an act of supreme confidence.Razedabode said:The government is utterly crumbling now.
Not only have they fecked up the response to the pandemic, why am I convinced Johnson will attempt to walk away with no deal from the EU.
January looks bleaker than ever.
We don't. The UK is a large economy and will be fine whatever happens.0 -
Is his hearing aid defective? Does it only work at maximum volume?ThomasNashe said:
I can almost hear the quiet man turning up the volume.williamglenn said:Duncan Smith seems to like this image.
https://twitter.com/MPIainDS/status/13167964772855070820 -
Paradise Papers were from a hack, but that's fine, because it is exposing tax dodging and corruption....Malmesbury said:
It is interesting how people like things according to if-my-side-does-themFrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
The Guardian using the phone-messaging-pin-set-to-default trick to read peoples messages.
Assange and Wikileaks were the toast of the left - when they were embarrassing George Bush. When they started embarrassing Obama they lost their luster. And may literally get the death penalty for embracing Hilary Clinton.
Snowdon stuff has put national security at risk, but that appears to be ok too....and he has ended up innnnnn Russia.0 -
That looks much better, the positivity rate isn't anywhere near what they're seeing in Europe at the moment and even that feels like it has begun to level off.Malmesbury said:
Good spot by MaxPB - there was a mistake in the code.LostPassword said:
Is this a tests/people tested difference for the denominator?MaxPB said:
On the positivity graph, I'm not sure that's correct. For example, on the 12th there were 237,638 tests and 16,933 positive results. That's a rate of 7.1% but the graph shows 16%. I've lost access to the data so I can't see what's going on either.Malmesbury said:UK cases summary
Revised chart0 -
I admire you sticking to your viewpoint.HYUFD said:
IBID/TIPP's new national poll has Biden 50% and Trump 42% and Jorgensen and Hawkins combined on 3%, so where are the missing 5%?stodge said:Evening all
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
If they are all shy Trump's then it would be Biden 50% and Trump 47% and Biden's national lead would be just 1% more than Hillary's and then the state polling makes more sense
You were one of the posters who called GE2019 right so I am scared to death you could make it 2 of 2
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If it helps I have a similiar feeling about the Democrats that I had about the Tories in 2019 before the electionbigjohnowls said:
I admire you sticking to your viewpoint.HYUFD said:
IBID/TIPP's new national poll has Biden 50% and Trump 42% and Jorgensen and Hawkins combined on 3%, so where are the missing 5%?stodge said:Evening all
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
If they are all shy Trump's then it would be Biden 50% and Trump 47% and Biden's national lead would be just 1% more than Hillary's and then the state polling makes more sense
You were one of the posters who called GE2019 right so I am scared to death you could make it 2 of 2
1 -
There’s clearly an error in the tables for the Wisconsin poll by Insider Advantage . There’s simply no way Trump leads by 77 to 15 with white voters . You can’t lead by that margin and be behind in a state which has a quite low proportion of non white voters.
And you’re simply never going to see that type of lead in white voters unless it’s non college educated white voters. So they’ve messed up the tables . They’ve also got Biden winning 40% of GOP voters ! The tables are garbage.0 -
Philip might push all in with a shit hand if he's playing a night of small stakes (in relation to his wealth) poker with friends, for the laugh if he loses or the buzz if everyone else folds. But you don't manage a once in a generation negotiation on the world stage like that, and certainly not if the cost to you of failing is hugely greater than the cost to the other player(s).Stuartinromford said:
I'm not an expert on playing poker. But my understanding is that most hands are never shown; good poker players develop a sense of when to fold.Pulpstar said:
You don't push all in with 2 7 offsuit.Philip_Thompson said:Gallowgate said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1316784661264244737?s=21Beibheirli_C said:Is Europe lying at our feet yet waiting Boris to claim his glorious victory?
I have not been keeping up today ...
One side or the other in this seems to be misreading the situation, possibly very badly.1 -
30,000 new cases in France0
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No articles from London writers about how tough things are in the lockdown capital, penned whilst on holiday in a rural beauty spot?rottenborough said:
2 -
Will Trump get the Neil Kinnock treatment?
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1316726651741499393?s=210 -
Not yet...IanB2 said:
No articles from London writers about how tough things are in the lockdown capital, penned whilst on holiday in a rural beauty spot?rottenborough said:0 -
The state polling is consistent with a Biden lead of c. 8%.HYUFD said:
IBID/TIPP's new national poll has Biden 50% and Trump 42% and Jorgensen and Hawkins combined on 3%, so where are the missing 5%?stodge said:Evening all
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
If they are all shy Trump's then it would be Biden 50% and Trump 47% and Biden's national lead would be just 1% more than Hillary's and then the state polling makes more sense
See: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/0 -
Have you complained to Twitter about those NHS documnts being from a hack? If you have and they don't remove it, it's one thing. The other alternative is simply that no-one has complained.FrancisUrquhart said:
Twitter didn't pull the NHS documents, screenshots are still there now from blue check marks. My point is they aren't applying the rules consistently.rcs1000 said:
I have rather more sympathy with Twitter on this than Facebook - they're pretty aggressive in pulling hacked content from their site, mostly because they've gotten into trouble with people sharing hacked photos of celebrities in various states of undress. If they're doing what they would be doing with any hacked content, according to rules that are applied uniformly, then that's their business. (WRT to the Biden tax returns, the source of the leak is fairly widely known, and it wasn't a hacker.)FrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Facebook I am much more troubled by. Because they are much more opaque about what content is shown and why.
It wasn't even questioned if the NHS documents were real or had been altered nor people had an issue that they were from a hack. It was deemed in the public interest.
Initially twitter / facebook claimed it was all about stopping the spread of these links to "fake news" sites, which are deliberately made to appear to look like legit well known media outlets but in fact aren't (basically using the techniques of phishing emails).0 -
There's a few areas where the R may already be below 1 and quite a few others where it's approaching 1 so the doubling period is getting longer. What was 5-7 days is now 12-14 days two weeks later.Foxy said:1 -
Indeed, we may have already got R below 1, but because of the lags in measuring things, we may not see if for another three or four weeks.MaxPB said:
There's a few areas where the R may already be below 1 and quite a few others where it's approaching 1 so the doubling period is getting longer. What was 5-7 days is now 12-14 days two weeks later.Foxy said:2 -
.
In 2016 Rasmussen had a Clinton poll lead at one point with Trump on 20% of the Black vote.nico679 said:There’s clearly an error in the tables for the Wisconsin poll by Insider Advantage . There’s simply no way Trump leads by 77 to 15 with white voters . You can’t lead by that margin and be behind in a state which has a quite low proportion of non white voters.
And you’re simply never going to see that type of lead in white voters unless it’s non college educated white voters. So they’ve messed up the tables . They’ve also got Biden winning 40% of GOP voters ! The tables are garbage.0 -
Hopefully not that long but that is part of the problem with public policy making. The politicians (and scientists) just seem to be hurtling towards loads of different restrictions and then they don't see any immediate change so they go for even more and we over correct.rcs1000 said:
Indeed, we may have already got R below 1, but because of the lags in measuring things, we may not see if for another three or four weeks.MaxPB said:
There's a few areas where the R may already be below 1 and quite a few others where it's approaching 1 so the doubling period is getting longer. What was 5-7 days is now 12-14 days two weeks later.Foxy said:0 -
I'm sure it was discussed earlier, but can anyone explain where Sadiq Khan is sourcing his claims that London hospitalisations are rising worryingly when all published info says nothing of the sort?1
-
We can only be sure in retrospect, but this looks quite a plausible estimate: R of 1.3MaxPB said:
There's a few areas where the R may already be below 1 and quite a few others where it's approaching 1 so the doubling period is getting longer. What was 5-7 days is now 12-14 days two weeks later.Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1316772944828338178?s=19
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1316774701365166080?s=090 -
We've not got 7-2 off though, we've got pocket Queens at least.IanB2 said:
Philip might push all in with a shit hand if he's playing a night of small stakes (in relation to his wealth) poker with friends, for the laugh if he loses or the buzz if everyone else folds. But you don't manage a once in a generation negotiation on the world stage like that, and certainly not if the cost to you of failing is hugely greater than the cost to the other player(s).Stuartinromford said:
I'm not an expert on playing poker. But my understanding is that most hands are never shown; good poker players develop a sense of when to fold.Pulpstar said:
You don't push all in with 2 7 offsuit.Philip_Thompson said:Gallowgate said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1316784661264244737?s=21Beibheirli_C said:Is Europe lying at our feet yet waiting Boris to claim his glorious victory?
I have not been keeping up today ...
One side or the other in this seems to be misreading the situation, possibly very badly.0 -
I have just seen the news about Margaret Ferrier.
It really is one rule for us plebs and another for the bosses, isn’t it?
Her offence was even worse than Cummings’. How the hell has she not been prosecuted?
I hope that any passenger on that train who has developed Covid sues her arse off.1 -
On topic, assuming that broad trends will have similarities in Holyrood and Westminster, until a black swan turns up Labour's only hope with relation to Scotland is this:
The SNP has essentially taken over Labour's ground in Scotland - the centre left, caring social democracy stuff. There is only space for one party of the centre left, and SNP is the one for now. It may well be that there is a natural alignment between the centre right and the unionist cause anyway in Scotland - I suspect there is. So the Tories are the only candidate for the other party of the two who in the long run can operate in the system.
Labour should therefore pretend to operate in Scotland while knowing that the SNP currently will clean up.
Labour's tactic should be to lose to the SNP in Scotland, and make sure the Tories don't sweep the board instead (that bit is easy).
Then in Westminster to hope that with a fair wind a a Labour government with s and s from SNP can be formed. Obvs the price for this is IndyRef2.
Which they are free to campaign to win on the unionist side, (with Tory help of course) paving the way for the union to be intact long term and Labour/SNP as a regular centre left majority.
It's not great, but if there is a better plan for the pro UK union centre left I don't know what it might be.
The SNP end up where they secretly want to be; in a union, running Scotland, lots of jobs for the boys and girls in Edinburgh and Westminster, subsidised by England and able to wave perpetual grievance around.0 -
-
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It is like he is an attention whore who is getting irritated at all the attention the North and Scotland are getting so he's jumping up and down going "hey don't forget about me".MaxPB said:
He's a massive, massive c***.alex_ said:I'm sure it was discussed earlier, but can anyone explain where Sadiq Khan is sourcing his claims that London hospitalisations are rising worryingly when all published info says nothing of the sort?
0 -
I still think the UK recent rises have been skewed massively by University students, whatever the claims that they're a very low proportion. Durham University had 1000 positive tests IN THE LAST WEEK. That compares with "London hotspot Richmond" with 300. A number of which are probably ... students at Durham University. The rate of university spread (which probably only covers a fraction of students) means that they're probably very close to herd immunity already. They'll all have had it before they've even got the chance to spread it to the wider community. And then the numbers might fall dramatically, especially in the relevant university towns.0
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Well we're not in a good position clearly, but is there anything the EU can demand that would warrant walking away from a deal?Pulpstar said:
You don't push all in with 2 7 offsuit.Philip_Thompson said:Gallowgate said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1316784661264244737?s=21Beibheirli_C said:Is Europe lying at our feet yet waiting Boris to claim his glorious victory?
I have not been keeping up today ...
I mean telling us what tax rates we're allowed or whether we can have state aid obviously isn't it.0 -
The hospital admission data runs 5-7 days behind the case data and the case data was showing R of around 1.3 a week ago as confirmed by the Imperial study.Foxy said:
We can only be sure in retrospect, but this looks quite a plausible estimate: R of 1.3MaxPB said:
There's a few areas where the R may already be below 1 and quite a few others where it's approaching 1 so the doubling period is getting longer. What was 5-7 days is now 12-14 days two weeks later.Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1316772944828338178?s=19
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1316774701365166080?s=090 -
Err, The Trump has admitted to ordering a hit or accused the US Marshall service of doing so
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1316801262277455872?s=190 -
Nobody's got pocket Qs if the negotiation doesn't get resolved until the last minute. We've already reached the point of no return for many British businesses even if we end up with the best deal in the World.Philip_Thompson said:
We've not got 7-2 off though, we've got pocket Queens at least.IanB2 said:
Philip might push all in with a shit hand if he's playing a night of small stakes (in relation to his wealth) poker with friends, for the laugh if he loses or the buzz if everyone else folds. But you don't manage a once in a generation negotiation on the world stage like that, and certainly not if the cost to you of failing is hugely greater than the cost to the other player(s).Stuartinromford said:
I'm not an expert on playing poker. But my understanding is that most hands are never shown; good poker players develop a sense of when to fold.Pulpstar said:
You don't push all in with 2 7 offsuit.Philip_Thompson said:Gallowgate said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1316784661264244737?s=21Beibheirli_C said:Is Europe lying at our feet yet waiting Boris to claim his glorious victory?
I have not been keeping up today ...
One side or the other in this seems to be misreading the situation, possibly very badly.1 -
Did we not deal with that this morning ?rcs1000 said:
Have you complained to Twitter about those NHS documnts being from a hack? If you have and they don't remove it, it's one thing. The other alternative is simply that no-one has complained.FrancisUrquhart said:
Twitter didn't pull the NHS documents, screenshots are still there now from blue check marks. My point is they aren't applying the rules consistently.rcs1000 said:
I have rather more sympathy with Twitter on this than Facebook - they're pretty aggressive in pulling hacked content from their site, mostly because they've gotten into trouble with people sharing hacked photos of celebrities in various states of undress. If they're doing what they would be doing with any hacked content, according to rules that are applied uniformly, then that's their business. (WRT to the Biden tax returns, the source of the leak is fairly widely known, and it wasn't a hacker.)FrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Facebook I am much more troubled by. Because they are much more opaque about what content is shown and why.
It wasn't even questioned if the NHS documents were real or had been altered nor people had an issue that they were from a hack. It was deemed in the public interest.
Initially twitter / facebook claimed it was all about stopping the spread of these links to "fake news" sites, which are deliberately made to appear to look like legit well known media outlets but in fact aren't (basically using the techniques of phishing emails).0 -
It makes me mad. All the comments he's been making about "we are all (London boroughs)" keen to "go in to this together". Nobody's "keen to go into it", together or otherwise. And what's even stupider is that he claims that he doesn't think Tier 2 will have much effect. If something isn't going to have much effect, you don't agitate to destroy all your businesses to get into it.Philip_Thompson said:
It is like he is an attention whore who is getting irritated at all the attention the North and Scotland are getting so he's jumping up and down going "hey don't forget about me".MaxPB said:
He's a massive, massive c***.alex_ said:I'm sure it was discussed earlier, but can anyone explain where Sadiq Khan is sourcing his claims that London hospitalisations are rising worryingly when all published info says nothing of the sort?
2 -
Leicester Uni documents cases daily, and publishes them here. Not high or rising over the week.alex_ said:I still think the UK recent rises have been skewed massively by University students, whatever the claims that they're a very low proportion. Durham University had 1000 positive tests IN THE LAST WEEK. That compares with "London hotspot Richmond" with 300. A number of which are probably ... students at Durham University. The rate of university spread (which probably only covers a fraction of students) means that they're probably very close to herd immunity already. They'll all have had it before they've even got the chance to spread it to the wider community. And then the numbers might fall dramatically, especially in the relevant university towns.
https://le.ac.uk/coronavirus/data-statistics?dm_i=I8Y,72T63,1G5ZIW,SL9NV,10 -
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Indeed even if infections have peaked case numbers may continue to rise for a little bit longer if testing and tracing improves and catches a higher percentage of cases and the positivity rate starts to go back down.rcs1000 said:
Indeed, we may have already got R below 1, but because of the lags in measuring things, we may not see if for another three or four weeks.MaxPB said:
There's a few areas where the R may already be below 1 and quite a few others where it's approaching 1 so the doubling period is getting longer. What was 5-7 days is now 12-14 days two weeks later.Foxy said:0 -
It is pretty rare to be so open about operating death squads.Alistair said:Err, The Trump has admitted to ordering a hit or accused the US Marshall service of doing so
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1316801262277455872?s=19
0 -
Scottish Labour alternatively could try and win tactical Tory and LD votes in the central belt where the Tories and LDs have no chance and they are the only Unionist alternative to the SNP at Holyrood elections while they would have a better chance of winning over SNP voters at Westminster elections where they are the only national alternative to the Toriesalgarkirk said:On topic, assuming that broad trends will have similarities in Holyrood and Westminster, until a black swan turns up Labour's only hope with relation to Scotland is this:
The SNP has essentially taken over Labour's ground in Scotland - the centre left, caring social democracy stuff. There is only space for one party of the centre left, and SNP is the one for now. It may well be that there is a natural alignment between the centre right and the unionist cause anyway in Scotland - I suspect there is. So the Tories are the only candidate for the other party of the two who in the long run can operate in the system.
Labour should therefore pretend to operate in Scotland while knowing that the SNP currently will clean up.
Labour's tactic should be to lose to the SNP in Scotland, and make sure the Tories don't sweep the board instead (that bit is easy).
Then in Westminster to hope that with a fair wind a a Labour government with s and s from SNP can be formed. Obvs the price for this is IndyRef2.
Which they are free to campaign to win on the unionist side, (with Tory help of course) paving the way for the union to be intact long term and Labour/SNP as a regular centre left majority.
It's not great, but if there is a better plan for the pro UK union centre left I don't know what it might be.
The SNP end up where they secretly want to be; in a union, running Scotland, lots of jobs for the boys and girls in Edinburgh and Westminster, subsidised by England and able to wave perpetual grievance around.0 -
The state Scottish Labour is in, they’d struggle to pick up tactical votes from the Monster Raving Loony Party.HYUFD said:
Scottish Labour alternatively could try and win tactical Tory and LD votes in the central belt where the Tories and LDs have no chance and they are the only Unionist alternative to the SNP at Holyrood elections while they would have a better chance of winning over SNP voters at Westminster elections where they are the only national alternative to the Toriesalgarkirk said:On topic, assuming that broad trends will have similarities in Holyrood and Westminster, until a black swan turns up Labour's only hope with relation to Scotland is this:
The SNP has essentially taken over Labour's ground in Scotland - the centre left, caring social democracy stuff. There is only space for one party of the centre left, and SNP is the one for now. It may well be that there is a natural alignment between the centre right and the unionist cause anyway in Scotland - I suspect there is. So the Tories are the only candidate for the other party of the two who in the long run can operate in the system.
Labour should therefore pretend to operate in Scotland while knowing that the SNP currently will clean up.
Labour's tactic should be to lose to the SNP in Scotland, and make sure the Tories don't sweep the board instead (that bit is easy).
Then in Westminster to hope that with a fair wind a a Labour government with s and s from SNP can be formed. Obvs the price for this is IndyRef2.
Which they are free to campaign to win on the unionist side, (with Tory help of course) paving the way for the union to be intact long term and Labour/SNP as a regular centre left majority.
It's not great, but if there is a better plan for the pro UK union centre left I don't know what it might be.
The SNP end up where they secretly want to be; in a union, running Scotland, lots of jobs for the boys and girls in Edinburgh and Westminster, subsidised by England and able to wave perpetual grievance around.0 -
The battleground state polls actually also have it Biden 49%, Trump 44.5% so with 3rd party candidates again on 3% combined there is again a missing 3.5% which may well be shy Trump's in which case Biden's battleground state lead would only be 1% which would be consistent with a national popular vote lead for Biden of 3% assuming hidden Trump voters in which case the race is almost neck and neck.rcs1000 said:
The state polling is consistent with a Biden lead of c. 8%.HYUFD said:
IBID/TIPP's new national poll has Biden 50% and Trump 42% and Jorgensen and Hawkins combined on 3%, so where are the missing 5%?stodge said:Evening all
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
If they are all shy Trump's then it would be Biden 50% and Trump 47% and Biden's national lead would be just 1% more than Hillary's and then the state polling makes more sense
See: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/0 -
It is not plausible that all 3.5% are shy Trumpers, but continue grasping at straws...HYUFD said:
The battleground state polls actually also have it Biden 49%, Trump 44.5% so with 3rd party candidates again on 3% combined there is again a missing 3.5% which may well be shy Trump's in which case Biden's battleground state lead would only be 1% which would be consistent with a national popular vote lead for Biden of 3% assuming hidden Trump voters in which case the race is almost neck and neck.rcs1000 said:
The state polling is consistent with a Biden lead of c. 8%.HYUFD said:
IBID/TIPP's new national poll has Biden 50% and Trump 42% and Jorgensen and Hawkins combined on 3%, so where are the missing 5%?stodge said:Evening all
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
If they are all shy Trump's then it would be Biden 50% and Trump 47% and Biden's national lead would be just 1% more than Hillary's and then the state polling makes more sense
See: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/0 -
Twitter’s actual policy.rcs1000 said:
Have you complained to Twitter about those NHS documnts being from a hack? If you have and they don't remove it, it's one thing. The other alternative is simply that no-one has complained.FrancisUrquhart said:
Twitter didn't pull the NHS documents, screenshots are still there now from blue check marks. My point is they aren't applying the rules consistently.rcs1000 said:
I have rather more sympathy with Twitter on this than Facebook - they're pretty aggressive in pulling hacked content from their site, mostly because they've gotten into trouble with people sharing hacked photos of celebrities in various states of undress. If they're doing what they would be doing with any hacked content, according to rules that are applied uniformly, then that's their business. (WRT to the Biden tax returns, the source of the leak is fairly widely known, and it wasn't a hacker.)FrancisUrquhart said:
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."rcs1000 said:This is a good story about the Hunter Biden story and the power of Facebook and Twitter:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Facebook I am much more troubled by. Because they are much more opaque about what content is shown and why.
It wasn't even questioned if the NHS documents were real or had been altered nor people had an issue that they were from a hack. It was deemed in the public interest.
Initially twitter / facebook claimed it was all about stopping the spread of these links to "fake news" sites, which are deliberately made to appear to look like legit well known media outlets but in fact aren't (basically using the techniques of phishing emails).
“ We don’t condone attempts to compromise or infiltrate computer systems for malicious purposes. As such, we don’t permit the use of our services to directly distribute content obtained through hacking that contains private information, may put people in physical harm or danger, or contains trade secrets. You also may not threaten to hack or break into someone’s digital information or attempt to incentivize others to do so.”
0 -
One other thing about the London announcement. Which feckin' idiot thought "i know, let's introduce it at midnight on Friday???". It's almost as if they want to get TV coverage of people partying madly just before it comes in.0
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Why would Hitlerites start a Gotterdammerung of the SNP in 1934?williamglenn said:
And if it’s still coming it’s hardly ‘soon.’0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
Revelation of the day: @IanB2 comes out against democracy.IanB2 said:
Yes, what Rwanda has achieved on a broad range of fronts is worthy of admiration, tempered only by the lack of political freedom they have imposed to get much of it done.FF43 said:
Sweden with (when I last looked) the twelfth worst fatality rate in the world isn't an obvious role model for the UK (sixth worst at the time), when you have a couple of hundred other countries to choose from.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Why Sweden? That's a nice bit of cherry-picking by isam, but overall Sweden has done quite badly to date, with a high number of deaths per million. We'd do better looking at Norway, or Greece, or Australia, or Germany, or Japan, or Taiwan, or any number of other places for that matter.rottenborough said:
I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.isam said:
I don't think many countries have done everything right, and certainly not Sweden. I think they made the right decision on keeping universities closed. Also their furlough scheme was/is more sustainable than ours (but not necessarily better than Germany etc). They made the same mistake as us on care homes. I also think they made a mistake not locking down when it became apparent the epidemic was going out of control. Ultimately, a lot of people died in Sweden who would still be alive with better virus management, as is the case here.
I am going to make a call out for Rwanda's approach to the epidemic. Genuinely impressive for a not at all wealthy country, as evidenced by a very low death rate.
I was out there at the time they had decreed that, as from the start of the new school year, all lessons would be in English rather than the previous French. Which caused some predictable challenges and generated a few funny stories, but was driven through with their government's characteristic determination.
Rwanda is the original political dilemma of the benign dictatorship, which may be the best governmental system of all, save for the problem of ensuring political succession to another benign dictator.0 -
Yeah it's all an attempt by Sadiq to get himself in the news saying everything is awful. He's a gigantic c*** and he's killing this great city.alex_ said:One other thing about the London announcement. Which feckin' idiot thought "i know, let's introduce it at midnight on Friday???". It's almost as if they want to get TV coverage of people partying madly just before it comes in.
2 -
Besides, at this point the cards we've got aren't in our pockets any more. They probably never were; the existence of French fishermen was hardly a state secret.alex_ said:
Nobody's got pocket Qs if the negotiation doesn't get resolved until the last minute. We've already reached the point of no return for many British businesses even if we end up with the best deal in the World.Philip_Thompson said:
We've not got 7-2 off though, we've got pocket Queens at least.IanB2 said:
Philip might push all in with a shit hand if he's playing a night of small stakes (in relation to his wealth) poker with friends, for the laugh if he loses or the buzz if everyone else folds. But you don't manage a once in a generation negotiation on the world stage like that, and certainly not if the cost to you of failing is hugely greater than the cost to the other player(s).Stuartinromford said:
I'm not an expert on playing poker. But my understanding is that most hands are never shown; good poker players develop a sense of when to fold.Pulpstar said:
You don't push all in with 2 7 offsuit.Philip_Thompson said:Gallowgate said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1316784661264244737?s=21Beibheirli_C said:Is Europe lying at our feet yet waiting Boris to claim his glorious victory?
I have not been keeping up today ...
One side or the other in this seems to be misreading the situation, possibly very badly.
It's possible that the EU have completely misjudged the situation. Anything's possible. But "it's possible" is working awfully hard there, and the poker wisdom of Warren Buffett feels relevant at this point;
"If you can’t find the sucker at the table, you’re it."0 -
Because the Tories already have them sewn up?ydoethur said:
The state Scottish Labour is in, they’d struggle to pick up tactical votes from the Monster Raving Loony Party.HYUFD said:
Scottish Labour alternatively could try and win tactical Tory and LD votes in the central belt where the Tories and LDs have no chance and they are the only Unionist alternative to the SNP at Holyrood elections while they would have a better chance of winning over SNP voters at Westminster elections where they are the only national alternative to the Toriesalgarkirk said:On topic, assuming that broad trends will have similarities in Holyrood and Westminster, until a black swan turns up Labour's only hope with relation to Scotland is this:
The SNP has essentially taken over Labour's ground in Scotland - the centre left, caring social democracy stuff. There is only space for one party of the centre left, and SNP is the one for now. It may well be that there is a natural alignment between the centre right and the unionist cause anyway in Scotland - I suspect there is. So the Tories are the only candidate for the other party of the two who in the long run can operate in the system.
Labour should therefore pretend to operate in Scotland while knowing that the SNP currently will clean up.
Labour's tactic should be to lose to the SNP in Scotland, and make sure the Tories don't sweep the board instead (that bit is easy).
Then in Westminster to hope that with a fair wind a a Labour government with s and s from SNP can be formed. Obvs the price for this is IndyRef2.
Which they are free to campaign to win on the unionist side, (with Tory help of course) paving the way for the union to be intact long term and Labour/SNP as a regular centre left majority.
It's not great, but if there is a better plan for the pro UK union centre left I don't know what it might be.
The SNP end up where they secretly want to be; in a union, running Scotland, lots of jobs for the boys and girls in Edinburgh and Westminster, subsidised by England and able to wave perpetual grievance around.0 -
Your are Billy Butcher and I claim my five dollars.....MaxPB said:
He's a massive, massive c***.alex_ said:I'm sure it was discussed earlier, but can anyone explain where Sadiq Khan is sourcing his claims that London hospitalisations are rising worryingly when all published info says nothing of the sort?
The again, you may be Sandor Clegane0 -
I'm not sure that I would call quite such a small group of swallows a summer.MaxPB said:
That looks much better, the positivity rate isn't anywhere near what they're seeing in Europe at the moment and even that feels like it has begun to level off.Malmesbury said:
Good spot by MaxPB - there was a mistake in the code.LostPassword said:
Is this a tests/people tested difference for the denominator?MaxPB said:
On the positivity graph, I'm not sure that's correct. For example, on the 12th there were 237,638 tests and 16,933 positive results. That's a rate of 7.1% but the graph shows 16%. I've lost access to the data so I can't see what's going on either.Malmesbury said:UK cases summary
Revised chart
How about a bet?0
