I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
My wife is involved with foster caring. It costs a fortune to foster children, sometimes in undesirable households. I made a suggestion that it would be cheaper to send the brightest most promising on burseries to Malvern College, Monmouth School, Marlborough and Clifton colleges etc. Maybe just 5% above current intake levels per school. The long term cost savings of the state not having to pay to look after damaged children throughout the course of their lives with benefits for them and their damaged offspring would be astronomical.
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
The progressive lot hated the Assisted Places scheme and got it binned - the complaint was that it was being used by middle class people. But really it was the one-size-must-fit-all religion that was being offended.
I was specifically looking at it from the point of fostered children, maybe through death of partents etc. The cost of fostering c.f private schooling would be similar. The benefit from those children being of value to society rather than being a burden on society would be huge. Even if the cycle was only being broken in small numbers it would still make a huge difference.
On the positivity graph, I'm not sure that's correct. For example, on the 12th there were 237,638 tests and 16,933 positive results. That's a rate of 7.1% but the graph shows 16%. I've lost access to the data so I can't see what's going on either.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
My wife is involved with foster caring. It costs a fortune to foster children, sometimes in undesirable households. I made a suggestion that it would be cheaper to send the brightest most promising on burseries to Malvern College, Monmouth School, Marlborough and Clifton colleges etc. Maybe just 5% above current intake levels per school. The long term cost savings of the state not having to pay to look after damaged children throughout the course of their lives with benefits for them and their damaged offspring would be astronomical.
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
The progressive lot hated the Assisted Places scheme and got it binned - the complaint was that it was being used by middle class people. But really it was the one-size-must-fit-all religion that was being offended.
Blair and cronies, that is.
There is an old joke - Winchester, the prison, is a much more expensive school to attend than Winchester the school.
In the objection to the Assisted places scheme was middle class parents using it - simply put in a hard earnings cap for the parents. Say max 1.5x minimum wage full time per parent or something.
The one upside for Bozo from all the geographical mess he has created is that it has distracted many of his troublesome backbenchers into quibbling over and special pleading for their own patch, reducing the number still focused on the chaotic bigger picture.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
My wife is involved with foster caring. It costs a fortune to foster children, sometimes in undesirable households. I made a suggestion that it would be cheaper to send the brightest most promising on burseries to Malvern College, Monmouth School, Marlborough and Clifton colleges etc. Maybe just 5% above current intake levels per school. The long term cost savings of the state not having to pay to look after damaged children throughout the course of their lives with benefits for them and their damaged offspring would be astronomical.
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
The progressive lot hated the Assisted Places scheme and got it binned - the complaint was that it was being used by middle class people. But really it was the one-size-must-fit-all religion that was being offended.
Blair and cronies, that is.
Blair of course sent his children to the London Oratory which selected on the basis of Catholic church attendance and used a private tutor from Westminster school for his sons
Why is this needed? Either the EU are going to cave, in which case we do not need these, or we will Walk and go WTO, in which case we will not need these. Hurrah for England!
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
Brexit lorry success depends on UK firms stopping their export activity. Obviously government won't admit to that.
It's an equilibrium. If there are too many exports, lorries get stuck in one of these parks or are not allowed to proceed to Kent, they won't go at all. No-one will pay for that. You need to get exports down to a trickle and then you have a costly but manageable delay.
Of course "stop our exports" means "stop our imports" - its the same truck. Not that we will quickly run out of food, fuel, medicines etc as warned by the food, fuel and pharma industries - those people are clueless remoaners.
I defer to your greater knowledge, but hope (?) that imports will be relatively unimpeded in the short term. Yes the lorry will go back empty and the importer, and ultimately the consumer, will pay the return leg. I think the government is aiming to minimise some of the new import red tape in the short term.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
Slightly odd niche, because boarding is expensive, and it wouldn't help anyone to overload those schools with high social needs. I don't know how much use is made of them for social care.
Yes, I know of them. I was thinking of specifically targeting the children whose parents are, to put it nicely, somewhat neglectful. Not forcibly taking their children or anything like that. Just offering them an out - and one which actually helps the children in question. So the schools would have to be created with that in mind.
Except Trafalgar was the only poll to correctly have Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 and not a single pollster had Trump ahead in Wisconsin but he won it anyway, if that Wisconsin poll is right then it will be a nailbiting night for Democrats though Biden should still scrape home
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
Kelly is a popular former astronaut married to a popular former Arizona politician (Gabrielle Giffords), running on a very moderate platform, against an unpopular incumbent who was rejected by the voters of Arizona two years ago.
Now, it may be that won't matter, and that whoever the Republicans put up in Arizona as a candidate would have lost... Nevertheless, McSally was a dreadful choice of candidate.
Interesting question: across the US, will Trump outperform or underperform Republican incumbents? (Bear in mind he underperformed by about 2% on average in 2016.)
A month ago, I assumed he'd do worse again. Now, I'm thinking he'll probably do better, largely on the back of half a dozen unpopular incumbents - McSally, McConnell, Ernst, Graham, etc
Trump outperformed GOP Senate candidates in 2016 too, then the GOP got 42% in the Senate vote overall to the 46% Trump got
Hang on. Not every state has a Senate race every year, so you're not comparing like with like. So, Texas didn't have a race in 2016, but California did. Likewise, there were no elections in a bunch of very safe Republican states.
To draw lessons for 2020, I think you have to compare Republican incumbent Senators to the Republican incumbent President.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
I've never understood how someone could send their kids to boarding school. Why have them if you don't want to have them around?
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
I have no problems with Thatcherism but there is a difference when the Government is saying by law you're temporarily not allowed to work, though those restrictions expire in 4 weeks time (as Tier 3 restrictions do unless renewed).
If the Government is going to do that then it should take up responsibility for its actions during that 4 week period. Tier 3 should not be "the new reality".
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
Time for Starmer to get the biggest reddest bus he can find and claim that the coming economic meltdown is all down to lies by the Brexiteers. The electorate are so pissed off with johnson and co they'll buy it lock stock and barrel
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
Does he have any specific details on this? Specific targets that he could hold HMG to would be helpful, such as: - 100k tests results returned within 24 hours, 200k within 48 hours. - 80% of contacts of a positive case tested within 48 hours of positive test result. - 80% of people asked to isolate confirmed to be isolating.
Nothing in Ed Davey's plan about: abolition of world hunger an end to all wars automatic refund of bets on all losing horses free owls.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
It's the British vice; cutting so many corners that the system doesn't work.
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
This is quite interesting on Sunak's approach. Essentially sink or swim time. He has no interest in trying to keep people in their jobs. This is very Thatcherite:
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
Sounds as though the reallocation will be from work to out of work for a lot of people.
That, apparently, is the plan.
Mix the 1m unemployed from no deal Brexit with the 3m unemployed from covid and they can claim Brexit was a success still. Keep the 3m in work and the damage from no deal would be obvious.
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that? We can do pooled testing to try and get a load of say students tested in one god. What else?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Kelly is a popular former astronaut married to a popular former Arizona politician (Gabrielle Giffords), running on a very moderate platform, against an unpopular incumbent who was rejected by the voters of Arizona two years ago.
Now, it may be that won't matter, and that whoever the Republicans put up in Arizona as a candidate would have lost... Nevertheless, McSally was a dreadful choice of candidate.
Interesting question: across the US, will Trump outperform or underperform Republican incumbents? (Bear in mind he underperformed by about 2% on average in 2016.)
A month ago, I assumed he'd do worse again. Now, I'm thinking he'll probably do better, largely on the back of half a dozen unpopular incumbents - McSally, McConnell, Ernst, Graham, etc
If Biden is anywhere near winning in Iowa he is home and hosed isnt he? at which point winning more Senate seats is way more valuable than winning excess states in the Electoral College. No good winning the Presidency and having the Republicans kill him in the Senate. So I think the Dems will be liking that poll
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
I've never understood how someone could send their kids to boarding school. Why have them if you don't want to have them around?
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
They'll probably promote her to David Frost's job.
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak, where not only are you tracked, the system automatically works out who needs a test, (most importantly) organizes the order in which people get one, sends out the test time etc etc etc.
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
They'll probably promote her to David Frost's job.
The NHS management are fully expecting her to succeed Sir Simon Stevens as Chief Executive of the NHS in 2021.
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak.
This is the most disappointing thing about the government, they've wasted the summer when they should have been prepping for the winter second wave.
On the positivity graph, I'm not sure that's correct. For example, on the 12th there were 237,638 tests and 16,933 positive results. That's a rate of 7.1% but the graph shows 16%. I've lost access to the data so I can't see what's going on either.
Is this a tests/people tested difference for the denominator?
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak.
This is the most disappointing thing about the government, they've wasted the summer when they should have been prepping for the winter second wave.
Some of us have been banging on it for months.
Again, I would say the response isn't all negative, but very patchy. Testing has increased, but not enough for the September back to school spike, but seems back to being enough now. PPE seems to have been stockpiled for the winter. Plenty of CPAP and Ventilators. Despite they flawed initial direction, they did get the app done for the 2nd wave.
Absolutely could have done more and better, but my point is I am not convinced the real steps that need to be taken to "fix test and trace" are something that can be built in 6 months. Nobody but South Korea has it. We know the tracking apps are failing to really work in every country they have been deployed.
People are now promising these magic bullets, lets just have a 2 week shutdown or if only I was in charge of the contact tracing it would work.
My take is the reality is, we have to prepare to live with this for another 12 months of this. There is no magic bullet. We need to be honest and realistic about what actually is possible and implement strategies that work across this long time period.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
I've never understood how someone could send their kids to boarding school. Why have them if you don't want to have them around?
Hang on, kids are differently interesting at different ages. It makes sense to offload them during their less interesting periods.
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
They'll probably promote her to David Frost's job.
The UK government should always want to negotiate with the EU Commission (Barnier) and not the member states.
Some playing to the gallery I suspect (hope).
Nonsense since Barnier has no authority to compromise. The member states need to negotiate or there can be no deal.
Yes. Barnier is a hired hand for the European Council (member states). He (plus Charles Michel), get to herd the cats*, which is why he is a powerful figure and someone the UK should keep on the right side of.
Its not the Manchester politicians with the power to enact it, its the govt! Time for them to man up and do it or give in and stop moaning that others dont agree with them.
Kelly is a popular former astronaut married to a popular former Arizona politician (Gabrielle Giffords), running on a very moderate platform, against an unpopular incumbent who was rejected by the voters of Arizona two years ago.
Now, it may be that won't matter, and that whoever the Republicans put up in Arizona as a candidate would have lost... Nevertheless, McSally was a dreadful choice of candidate.
Interesting question: across the US, will Trump outperform or underperform Republican incumbents? (Bear in mind he underperformed by about 2% on average in 2016.)
A month ago, I assumed he'd do worse again. Now, I'm thinking he'll probably do better, largely on the back of half a dozen unpopular incumbents - McSally, McConnell, Ernst, Graham, etc
If Biden is anywhere near winning in Iowa he is home and hosed isnt he? at which point winning more Senate seats is way more valuable than winning excess states in the Electoral College. No good winning the Presidency and having the Republicans kill him in the Senate. So I think the Dems will be liking that poll
I thought we had already unilaterally decided negotiations were over after today - why do we care what the other side want now? Surely we havent surrendered again?
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak.
This is the most disappointing thing about the government, they've wasted the summer when they should have been prepping for the winter second wave.
Some of us have been banging on it for months.
Again, I would say the response isn't all negative, but very patchy. Testing has increased, but not enough for the September back to school spike, but seems back to being enough now. PPE seems to have been stockpiled for the winter. Plenty of CPAP and Ventilators. Despite they flawed initial direction, they did get the app done for the 2nd wave.
Absolutely could have done more and better, but my point is I am not convinced the real steps that need to be taken to "fix test and trace" are something that can be built in 6 months. Nobody but South Korea has it. We know the tracking apps are failing to really work in every country they have been deployed.
People are now promising these magic bullets, lets just have a 2 week shutdown or if only I was in charge of the contact tracing it would work.
My take is the reality is, we have to prepare to live with this for another 12 months of this. There is no magic bullet. We need to be honest and realistic about what actually is possible and implement strategies that work across this long time period.
But you write off the circuit breakers as after 2 weeks everything is magically ok.
That is not what SAGE or anyone serious is saying. They say regular 2 week circuit breaks are a way of navigating through the next 12 months that allow either fewer deaths or looser restrictions for most of that period, or a mix of the two.
For those politicians calling for "fix test and trace", my first question would to ask how....need concrete suggestions.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
Sack Dido Harding would be a good first step.
Fine, we have done that. Then what....is a genuine question. To me, it seems similar to the suggestion, well all we need to do is a 2 week circuit breaker, job done.
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak.
This is the most disappointing thing about the government, they've wasted the summer when they should have been prepping for the winter second wave.
Some of us have been banging on it for months.
Again, I would say the response isn't all negative, but very patchy. Testing has increased, but not enough for the September back to school spike, but seems back to being enough now. PPE seems to have been stockpiled for the winter. Plenty of CPAP and Ventilators. Despite they flawed initial direction, they did get the app done for the 2nd wave.
Absolutely could have done more and better, but my point is I am not convinced the real steps that need to be taken to "fix test and trace" are something that can be built in 6 months. Nobody but South Korea has it. We know the tracking apps are failing to really work in every country they have been deployed.
People are now promising these magic bullets, lets just have a 2 week shutdown or if only I was in charge of the contact tracing it would work.
My take is the reality is, we have to prepare to live with this for another 12 months of this. There is no magic bullet. We need to be honest and realistic about what actually is possible and implement strategies that work across this long time period.
But you write off the circuit breakers as after 2 weeks everything is magically ok.
That is not what SAGE or anyone serious is saying. They say regular 2 week circuit breaks are a way of navigating through the next 12 months that allow either fewer deaths or looser restrictions for most of that period, or a mix of the two.
Leading politicians are arguing for a single 2 week circuit breaker, based on results of the mathematical modelling which don't appear convincing at all.
If they were arguing for regular short lockdowns that is different and more honest about the realities. My personal preference is still for a load of targeted measures which we keep in place regardless of the change in rates for the foreseeable future. Minimize "confusion", no rushes of stop /starts as people dash to the pub for the first time and the last time, make it the new norm.
We will also know which businesses can't survive under this regime and target support to them.
Again stop / start, nobody is quite sure who can make it work under that methodology.
Not only have they fecked up the response to the pandemic, why am I convinced Johnson will attempt to walk away with no deal from the EU.
January looks bleaker than ever.
I suspect the euro negotiations are the only thing keeping Johnson in his job. If he were removed the EU would immediately ask for a transition extension, and nobody in the tory party wants that.
"The documents are sourced through dubiously trustworthy and politically motivated sources, specifically Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is linked to an alleged Russian agent accused of election meddling. While opposition research is nothing new or exclusive to Republicans, it’s possible that the alleged Biden emails were doctored, obtained in a way that was less innocuous than a lost laptop, or leaked with the explicit goal of foreign interference in the US election."
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
Comments
The March experience shows that delaying lockdown doesn't save money; it costs more in the medium term, because you end up locking down for longer. Quibbling over furlough money just means that co-operation is harder to get, people feel they have to work so they spread the sickness. The attempts to apply restrictions "only where they're needed" are hurting national unity and adding complication and that makes them less effective.
Keep it simple, keep it uniform. "If in doubt, over-react" is a decent rule of thumb for an infectious disease.
I understand Boris being a flabby-faced coward and wanting to avoid this stuff. I used to think that Rishi was smarter and could see more than 1 day's newspaper headlines ahead. Apparently not.
In the objection to the Assisted places scheme was middle class parents using it - simply put in a hard earnings cap for the parents. Say max 1.5x minimum wage full time per parent or something.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1316788259444359168
Trump 45% (+1)
Changes from 1st October.
I have not been keeping up today ...
https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1316791336176095233
https://twitter.com/jbf1755/status/1316765553651056640?s=19
Now closed, Google tells me.
New local restrictions on pubs and bars to curb the spread have compelled the government to provide more support. Last week Sunak revised the JSS so that the government will now support businesses that are forced to close by paying two-thirds of each employee’s salary, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month.
These measures will help but will not prevent a sharp rise in unemployment over the next few months. Indeed, it is difficult not to see a higher unemployment rate for the near term as the deliberate aim of policy, with the government having apparently shifted from attempting to preserve existing matches between workers and employers, to a large-scale reallocation of workers. And Sunak’s view is that “everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality”.
https://twitter.com/JohnSpringford/status/1316781177655767043
Without us withdrawing from the talks and going for No Deal
Do you know why?
To draw lessons for 2020, I think you have to compare Republican incumbent Senators to the Republican incumbent President.
https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1316785717222277124
If the Government is going to do that then it should take up responsibility for its actions during that 4 week period. Tier 3 should not be "the new reality".
Over a barrel All the cards
abolition of world hunger
an end to all wars
automatic refund of bets on all losing horses
free owls.
What are the prioritises? More tests? Faster turn around of tests? If so, how? Do we need different tech to totally automate and prioritize who gets tests in the way South Korea does? If so, when can we expect to deliver that by?
And what's the plan to trace faster and better?
And can any of this be addressed in 2 weeks, which seems to be the suggestion?
IMO, there are some improvements around the edges e.g. people going in person to homes to trace. But how scalable is that? We can do pooled testing to try and get a load of say students tested in one god. What else?
The main issue is once you get above a very low level, you need much higher level of surveillance of your population and you need technology to automate most of it. It took South Korea several years to build this tech and this is from one of the most advanced nations on the planet.
So in France it is illegal for Ministers to be fucking useless, and they can get nicked for it. Fantastic law.
Also no guns are allowed at the former.
(apart from the ones in the new boyfriends arms)
I think the government have again massively overpromised, rather than being honest that unless we are happy for massive state surveillance, contact tracing can only ever be a reactive process that can only do so much.
There is no real quick fix. Even if the government had been super efficient, got the app sorted sooner etc, as I say South Korea took years to build their technological solution in response to the SARS outbreak, where not only are you tracked, the system automatically works out who needs a test, (most importantly) organizes the order in which people get one, sends out the test time etc etc etc.
Not only have they fecked up the response to the pandemic, why am I convinced Johnson will attempt to walk away with no deal from the EU.
January looks bleaker than ever.
Some of us have been banging on it for months.
Some playing to the gallery I suspect (hope).
Absolutely could have done more and better, but my point is I am not convinced the real steps that need to be taken to "fix test and trace" are something that can be built in 6 months. Nobody but South Korea has it. We know the tracking apps are failing to really work in every country they have been deployed.
People are now promising these magic bullets, lets just have a 2 week shutdown or if only I was in charge of the contact tracing it would work.
My take is the reality is, we have to prepare to live with this for another 12 months of this. There is no magic bullet. We need to be honest and realistic about what actually is possible and implement strategies that work across this long time period.
* Not something the UK should ever want to do.
https://twitter.com/NewYorkFed/status/1316756798590910467
Only time will tell.
We don't. The UK is a large economy and will be fine whatever happens.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21516729/facebook-twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-emails-laptop-story-social-media-moderation-problems
That is not what SAGE or anyone serious is saying. They say regular 2 week circuit breaks are a way of navigating through the next 12 months that allow either fewer deaths or looser restrictions for most of that period, or a mix of the two.
https://twitter.com/MPIainDS/status/1316796477285507082
If they were arguing for regular short lockdowns that is different and more honest about the realities. My personal preference is still for a load of targeted measures which we keep in place regardless of the change in rates for the foreseeable future. Minimize "confusion", no rushes of stop /starts as people dash to the pub for the first time and the last time, make it the new norm.
We will also know which businesses can't survive under this regime and target support to them.
Again stop / start, nobody is quite sure who can make it work under that methodology.
But nobody.
After that, all bets are off, for me.
Questions which weren't asked about Trump tax returns.
As those in the Obama White House have stated, Russia doesn't play one side exclusively, it plays both sides against each other.
And of course twitter / facebook had no such issues when Corbyn waved his hacked NHS trade documents....which we now know came from Russian hackers.
Thursday brings a Cascade (or even a cascade) of polling from the US. Biden continues to poll strongly in the national contests with an 11-point lead in an NBC News/Washington Post poll and the daily IBD/TIPP giving Biden a 50-42 advantage in a four-way race including Jorgensen and Hawkins. While Biden's number is drifting gently lower, Trump doesn't seem to be benefitting.
State polling continues to perplex - Trafalgar has Biden ahead by only two in Wisconsin while an Insider Advantage poll for our completely impartial friends at the Centre for American Greatness has Biden up 46-43 in Pennsylvania where (among white voters) Trump leads 77-15(!).
https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Insider-Advantage_Center-for-American-Greatness-PA-POll-.pdf
Biden continues to lead in Arizona from 3-7 points and enjoys a 15-point advantage in Virginia which Clinton won by five in 2016. Maine Congressional District 2 is one EC vote - Trump won it last time but a new poll has Biden ahead by four which would be a 7.5% swing on 2016. I've moved CD2 back to TCTC.
A relatively better poll for Trump in South Carolina, a state he won by 14 in 2016 and leads by 8 in the latest New York Times/Siena poll.
My prediction is 299-160 to Biden with 79 TCTC.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1316805306849132549