Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections – political

2456

Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,702
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
  • kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    I agree with Drakeford on this

    Our Asia delivery driver this morning has been alarmed that the number of houses he is calling on have covid

    He said it was particularly bad in Bangor
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited October 2020
    A few state polls out. I won't be taking the 9.5 available on Trump in VA. Biden has a 13pt lead there.

    NC poll is good for Biden.

    North Carolina
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,211 LV Biden
    51%
    46%
    Trump Biden +5


    Colorado
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,013 LV Biden
    54%
    42%
    Trump Biden +12


    Virginia
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,231 LV Biden
    55%
    42%
    Trump Biden +13
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859

    Hi all. Very interesting article. I’m a fan of the site and thought I’d de-lurk for a bit.

    A few thoughts: how reliable is any polling during the current global pandemic? Is it likely to be skewed by people’s natural tendency to ‘cling to nurse’, in this case Sturgeon, and be distracted from ‘usual’ day to day voter issues? The shift in Scottish polls seems to tie as much to COVID as to Brexit (with No still ahead in most polls until this year).

    Ipsos had a 9% Yes lead in 2015 and another, smaller 4% lead the next year around the time most other companies were reporting solid No leads.This latest poll is out of line with the Survation non-standard q poll and Savanta Comres from around the same period. Who knows who’s right, but what’s the likely reason for this?

    Welcome. As a Unionist I hope that this a reflection on Nicola Sturgeon, mother of the nation in times of trouble, stuff. It would certainly help if her party members would get on with stabbing her husband and then her in the back, the front and pretty much everywhere else they can reach.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:
    Or reassuring that they're happy to disclose information (and presumably follow it up) which the White House wasn't until days later. The White House is still refusing to allow contact tracing.
    They are indeed doing the responsible thing, and contact tracing.
    https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1316737443295629312
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Whereas with Trump, it's more of an open source effort...

    https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1316749762381713408
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    K E I R


    K



    E



    I



    R


    Some PBers need to learn to spell. And the liquid lunch isn't even an excuse today Casino.
    It's weird isn't it. I have no problem spelling Johnson's first name:
    A L E X A N D E R.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    I agree with Drakeford on this

    Our Asia delivery driver this morning has been alarmed that the number of houses he is calling on have covid

    He said it was particularly bad in Bangor
    I think the UK wide advice should really be don't travel more than x miles unless for work etc. At the moment, we really don't need people just going on a jolly somewhere because they fancy it.
  • Nigelb said:

    Whereas with Trump, it's more of an open source effort...

    https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1316749762381713408

    Did Rudy really test negative? That cough he had the other week was horrendous and was the classic COVID hack.
  • Burnham demanding that the whole country goes into lockdown and refuses to go into tier 3 without furlough and full compensation for everyone
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Burnham demanding that the whole country goes into lockdown and refuses to go into tier 3 without furlough and full compensation for everyone

    Complete madness
  • kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    I agree with Drakeford on this

    Our Asia delivery driver this morning has been alarmed that the number of houses he is calling on have covid

    He said it was particularly bad in Bangor
    I think the UK wide advice should really be don't travel more than x miles unless for work etc. At the moment, we really don't need people just going on a jolly somewhere because they fancy it.
    Completely agree. It is a no brainer. Unfortunately it looks like it will take four or five weeks for the government to enact what could be an easy restriction which would no doubt have widespread support
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020

    Burnham demanding that the whole country goes into lockdown and refuses to go into tier 3 without furlough and full compensation for everyone

    Month Tier 3 bad, 2 week Circuit Breaker good.....Help Out to Eat Out caused uptick in cases in Manchester, pubs / restaurants don't spread it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Since you think the Union is irrelevant anyway and consider yourself only a English European why does it matter to you?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    I agree with Drakeford on this

    Our Asia delivery driver this morning has been alarmed that the number of houses he is calling on have covid

    He said it was particularly bad in Bangor
    I think the UK wide advice should really be don't travel more than x miles unless for work etc. At the moment, we really don't need people just going on a jolly somewhere because they fancy it.
    Completely agree. It is a no brainer. Unfortunately it looks like it will take four or five weeks for the government to enact what could be an easy restriction which would no doubt have widespread support
    Well 6+ months and they still haven't taken proper action over airports / holidays, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

    I never understood from the beginning why the rule was you must stay within x miles of your home unless for work etc. It is what Wales did, what France did, it seems very sensible to try and break spread.

    When we came out of lockdown we had all the idiots charging 3hrs to a beach or up Snowdon....it should have been still restricted travel distance. We really didn't need 10,000s of people all descending on Brighton.
  • A few state polls out. I won't be taking the 9.5 available on Trump in VA. Biden has a 13pt lead there.

    NC poll is good for Biden.

    North Carolina
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,211 LV Biden
    51%
    46%
    Trump Biden +5


    Colorado
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,013 LV Biden
    54%
    42%
    Trump Biden +12


    Virginia
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,231 LV Biden
    55%
    42%
    Trump Biden +13

    Do you know how this compares to last time?
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,702

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Since you think the Union is irrelevant anyway and consider yourself only a English European why does it matter to you?
    I just find the tragic element of it interesting. Brexiteers chose to destroy the thing they loved for largely trivial reasons.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    And itself illegal, surely.

    However, are the Tier X restrictions actually the law? The rule of 6 is, I know, but the rest?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    And itself illegal, surely.

    However, are the Tier X restrictions actually the law? The rule of 6 is, I know, but the rest?
    Yes it passed the house a few days ago
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Sigh. Unlike JRM I will try to give a substantive answer. Scotland is a part of the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom is the body that had membership of the EU. The United Kingdom, as a whole, was the correct body to decide whether or not we should leave. We voted to leave. Over 1m Scots voted to leave. They were in the minority in Scotland but that was of as little relevance as the majority in a particular housing estate within a constituency. What mattered was the overall result.

    If it were not so then there is no Union. Scotland does not have a special status within the Union that entitles its views to override the views of the majority. It is entitled to express its opinion as a part of the whole and it did that. That's it.
  • DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Vlad Putin must be very pleased with Brexiteers and the SNP. For some reason he is obsessed with Britain and has long stated his view that Britain should be broken up. No doubt he is firing up his bot farms for the inevitable referendum and the SNP, with Salmond especially, very grateful of Vlad's support. They say you judge a man by the company he keeps. The same applies to political parties.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    Mr Burnham adds that the Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van-Tam said bringing infection rates down would "require widespread closures way beyond pubs". "They are asking us to gamble our residents' jobs, homes and businesses and large chunk of our economy on a strategy that their own experts say will not work," he said.

    -----

    So he doesn't back Starmer's plan then?
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    Where has the deputy mayor encouraged it?

    I predict Man City will win the league, doesn't mean I want it to happen, nor am I encouraging it, it's a simple observation.

    I'm fairly certain William Wragg has said the same.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Since you think the Union is irrelevant anyway and consider yourself only a English European why does it matter to you?
    I just find the tragic element of it interesting. Brexiteers chose to destroy the thing they loved for largely trivial reasons.
    Your leitmotif is to probe for a vector along which you think your arguments for European federalism will have the most purchase with your opponent, and then to push as hard as you can.

    I get it. Good tactics and all. But it’s not as clever as you think it is when you’re up against people who are wise to it.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    Where has the deputy mayor encouraged it?

    I predict Man City will win the league, doesn't mean I want it to happen, nor am I encouraging it, it's a simple observation.

    I'm fairly certain William Wragg has said the same.
    Live just now on Burnham press conference

    It was astonishing
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Sigh. Unlike JRM I will try to give a substantive answer. Scotland is a part of the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom is the body that had membership of the EU. The United Kingdom, as a whole, was the correct body to decide whether or not we should leave. We voted to leave. Over 1m Scots voted to leave. They were in the minority in Scotland but that was of as little relevance as the majority in a particular housing estate within a constituency. What mattered was the overall result.

    If it were not so then there is no Union. Scotland does not have a special status within the Union that entitles its views to override the views of the majority. It is entitled to express its opinion as a part of the whole and it did that. That's it.
    Yep. Precisely.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    I agree with Drakeford on this

    Our Asia delivery driver this morning has been alarmed that the number of houses he is calling on have covid

    He said it was particularly bad in Bangor
    I think the UK wide advice should really be don't travel more than x miles unless for work etc. At the moment, we really don't need people just going on a jolly somewhere because they fancy it.
    Completely agree. It is a no brainer. Unfortunately it looks like it will take four or five weeks for the government to enact what could be an easy restriction which would no doubt have widespread support
    Well 6+ months and they still haven't taken proper action over airports / holidays, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

    I never understood from the beginning why the rule was you must stay within x miles of your home unless for work etc. It is what Wales did, what France did, it seems very sensible to try and break spread.

    When we came out of lockdown we had all the idiots charging 3hrs to a beach or up Snowdon....it should have been still restricted travel distance. We really didn't need 10,000s of people all descending on Brighton.
    The management of the end of lockdown was a farce. The desperate desire of politicians to pretend we could go back to normal has fucked us.

    The point of lockdown was to get cases to a manageable level such that _set of restrictions_ could then be kept in place for the long haul.

    Instead were being encouraged to fly around in plague tins and spread covid willy nilly.
  • The mistake the government are again making is pissing about. They introduce Tier system, then change some regions a couple of days later, and now debating with Burnham if to put Manchester in Tier 3 or not.

    You make a decision, you do it, you get on with it. Not 2 weeks of discussions and debates, briefings to the media, public here we are going into it, no we aren't, yes we are. You decide, you enact it within the day.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    On lockdowns we are now finding the difference between what people tell the pollsters and the actuality.

    It’s always other people who are the covidiots.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    A few state polls out. I won't be taking the 9.5 available on Trump in VA. Biden has a 13pt lead there.

    NC poll is good for Biden.

    North Carolina
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,211 LV Biden
    51%
    46%
    Trump Biden +5


    Colorado
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,013 LV Biden
    54%
    42%
    Trump Biden +12


    Virginia
    OCT 11-14, 2020
    B/C
    Civiqs
    1,231 LV Biden
    55%
    42%
    Trump Biden +13

    Do you know how this compares to last time?
    The last North Carolina Civiqs poll was May.

    Trump no change, Biden up 2. For what it is worth
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2020
    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Can't help thinking that even by the standards of the appalling response to the virus over the last six months, the last week has been off the scale.

    Where are we with all this? Where is the strategy? Which measures actually have a science back up? Which measures work?

    Local lockdowns, national circuit breakers, closing pubs at 10pm, tier 2 or tier 3, bumping up a tier within two days of announcing the tiers. It's a total and utter mess.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    Because Burnham does not like local lockdown he wants to damage the parts of the country where covid is a lesser threat
  • Alistair said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    I agree with Drakeford on this

    Our Asia delivery driver this morning has been alarmed that the number of houses he is calling on have covid

    He said it was particularly bad in Bangor
    I think the UK wide advice should really be don't travel more than x miles unless for work etc. At the moment, we really don't need people just going on a jolly somewhere because they fancy it.
    Completely agree. It is a no brainer. Unfortunately it looks like it will take four or five weeks for the government to enact what could be an easy restriction which would no doubt have widespread support
    Well 6+ months and they still haven't taken proper action over airports / holidays, so I wouldn't hold your breath.

    I never understood from the beginning why the rule was you must stay within x miles of your home unless for work etc. It is what Wales did, what France did, it seems very sensible to try and break spread.

    When we came out of lockdown we had all the idiots charging 3hrs to a beach or up Snowdon....it should have been still restricted travel distance. We really didn't need 10,000s of people all descending on Brighton.
    The management of the end of lockdown was a farce. The desperate desire of politicians to pretend we could go back to normal has fucked us.

    The point of lockdown was to get cases to a manageable level such that _set of restrictions_ could then be kept in place for the long haul.

    Instead were being encouraged to fly around in plague tins and spread covid willy nilly.
    The desire across Europe to let people have summer holidays was insane. So you lock your country down, everybody stay home, then you say sure go and mix with 1000s of people from all over Europe for 2 weeks and then come back....what do you mean we have new outbreaks.

    It should have been clear. Sorry, no foreign holidays until we get a vaccine or we can rapidly test you at airports and able to isolate all those with it.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
    Different things to what Big G was misreporting.

    The Leese and Burnham are pointing what will happen if the government don't get their finger out to support the area.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    Where has the deputy mayor encouraged it?

    I predict Man City will win the league, doesn't mean I want it to happen, nor am I encouraging it, it's a simple observation.

    I'm fairly certain William Wragg has said the same.
    I'm predicting that Man U won't win the league. It is another statement of the blindingly obvious.
  • DavidL said:

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    Where has the deputy mayor encouraged it?

    I predict Man City will win the league, doesn't mean I want it to happen, nor am I encouraging it, it's a simple observation.

    I'm fairly certain William Wragg has said the same.
    I'm predicting that Man U won't win the league. It is another statement of the blindingly obvious.
    Indeed, and you're not encouraging it either.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    This is a very myopic argument. The question isn't whether the SNP have a grievance, but whether those grievances have purchase in wider society, and you have personally contributed to the clearest one they could ever have wished for.
    Sigh. Unlike JRM I will try to give a substantive answer. Scotland is a part of the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom is the body that had membership of the EU. The United Kingdom, as a whole, was the correct body to decide whether or not we should leave. We voted to leave. Over 1m Scots voted to leave. They were in the minority in Scotland but that was of as little relevance as the majority in a particular housing estate within a constituency. What mattered was the overall result.

    If it were not so then there is no Union. Scotland does not have a special status within the Union that entitles its views to override the views of the majority. It is entitled to express its opinion as a part of the whole and it did that. That's it.
    The fact that voting Brexit would jeopardize the Union extremely severely was well trailed. Makes you, and anyone else who had half a brain in Scotland and wanted to preserve the Union look rather silly in that regard. You chose massive instability for rUK and Scotland in particular for the peculiar satisfaction of voting for something that was illogical, pointless and without benefit to all but a few politicians, journalists and hedge fund managers. Well, you reap what you sow. Problem is that 48% of us that didn't sow it have to share a shitty harvest.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    Because Burnham does not like local lockdown he wants to damage the parts of the country where covid is a lesser threat
    Tier three is better than tier two it seems to me. In Tier two, businesses are in the kill zone but don't get any compensation!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    Because we know from past experience that sensible technical arguments like that will trump nationalistic emotion every time? Said voters having been on the receiving end of someone else’s misplaced nationalism will surely drive the point home.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
    Different things to what Big G was misreporting.

    The Leese and Burnham are pointing what will happen if the government don't get their finger out to support the area.
    Burnham is effectively trying to railroad HMG into a financial package that would see nobody adversely effected financially

    Any such package would be UK wide costing billions every day with no end in sight
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
    Different things to what Big G was misreporting.

    The Leese and Burnham are pointing what will happen if the government don't get their finger out to support the area.
    Burnham is using that part of a convenient excuse, just like those who tried to block Brexit always found a new reason why they couldn't support it. As I said, he was totally two faced on Help Out To Eat Out / restaurant spreading.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:


    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.

    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    Why any Scottish Unionist would vote for Brexit baffles me.

    Firstly because English nationalism is quite alien to most Scots. You can rally to the Saltire and believe in a union of shared values, interests and mutual respect. The Brexit vision isn't that.

    Secondly, people vote SNP for a simple reason: they think independence would be a good thing. Not because they have a grievance. Support for the SNP and independence has never been higher. But that support has come entirely from former Unionists. No won in 2014 because there were more Unionists than nationalists. Now it's the other way round. That danger should give pause for thought for any Brexiteer Unionist, even if they don't actually see it as a problem themselves.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
  • isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859
    What I think that we are seeing in Manchester and elsewhere is the point where imposing further restrictions is not going to be a way of looking "responsible" or "serious" or "caring" but rather a way of becoming deeply unpopular very fast. Even Nicola may not find herself immune to this. The utter disregard of the economic and health consequences of Covid restrictions may well be coming to an end. Whilst not be a member of the "let it rip" brigade I would welcome this. Enough of the mallet, find the rapier.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Personal restrictions for those who lead a simple life are very similiar from tier 2 to 3.
    Tier 3 takeaways must be doing a roaring trade though !
  • twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1316755238121099264?s=20

    But he backs nationwide restrictions that will cause even more job losses....including areas with virtually no COVID.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    And itself illegal, surely.

    However, are the Tier X restrictions actually the law? The rule of 6 is, I know, but the rest?
    Yes it passed the house a few days ago
    Thanks. It is hard to keep up!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    isam said:
    I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    Hi all. Very interesting article. I’m a fan of the site and thought I’d de-lurk for a bit.

    A few thoughts: how reliable is any polling during the current global pandemic? Is it likely to be skewed by people’s natural tendency to ‘cling to nurse’, in this case Sturgeon, and be distracted from ‘usual’ day to day voter issues? The shift in Scottish polls seems to tie as much to COVID as to Brexit (with No still ahead in most polls until this year).

    Ipsos had a 9% Yes lead in 2015 and another, smaller 4% lead the next year around the time most other companies were reporting solid No leads.This latest poll is out of line with the Survation non-standard q poll and Savanta Comres from around the same period. Who knows who’s right, but what’s the likely reason for this?

    Welcome. As a Unionist I hope that this a reflection on Nicola Sturgeon, mother of the nation in times of trouble, stuff. It would certainly help if her party members would get on with stabbing her husband and then her in the back, the front and pretty much everywhere else they can reach.
    While I'm no snowflake, your last sentence does seem rather out of character, being an unnecessarily violent metaphor, for you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    I meant young adults who don't live at home with their parents really, but nice use of drama
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited October 2020
    Khan has just said we should have a 2 week circuit breaker to get a fully functioning test and trace system in place and come out of tier 2

    This is conspicuously nonsense
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,426

    On lockdowns we are now finding the difference between what people tell the pollsters and the actuality.

    It’s always other people who are the covidiots.

    Vast majority of people will lockdown themselves once the hospitals are full. If it happens in that way then there won't be support for hospitality and retail and it'll mostly go to the wall.

    Meanwhile the whole mind-numbing argument is a distraction from finding a solution that doesn't involve everyone isolating from everyone else.

    I think Starmer made a big mistake by hitching himself to the lockdown wagon. We're seven months in now. He should be hammering the government for failing to control the virus with testing, isolation of the infectious and travel quarantine. He should be pinning the blame for the now inevitable lockdown, whether de jure or de facto, onto the government's failure.

    Instead, bizarrely, he's trying to claim the credit for having the idea of a second lockdown first.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2020
    When people die of flu, is it the person they caught it off that killed them?
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    I meant young adults who don't live at home with their parents really, but nice use of drama
    What drama? It's simple truth. My mother is old with co-morbidities. There is a fair chance that covid would kill her, or at least result in an extremely unpleasant stay in hospital.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    isam said:
    I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.
    Mask wearing is not mandantory in Sweden. In countries which have the worst outbreaks in Europe it is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    I meant young adults who don't live at home with their parents really, but nice use of drama
    What drama? It's simple truth. My mother is old with co-morbidities. There is a fair chance that covid would kill her, or at least result in an extremely unpleasant stay in hospital.
    The way you phrased it made it sound like you were killing your Mother, which seemed overly dramatic
  • isam said:
    I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.
    I am no apologist for this moronically led government, but I think it fair to say Sweden is a very different country to here and what works in one will not work in another perhaps. Though the biggest difference is that they maybe don't have a complete cretin as their head of government, which is going to fuck things up whatever your geography or demographic
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    What I think that we are seeing in Manchester and elsewhere is the point where imposing further restrictions is not going to be a way of looking "responsible" or "serious" or "caring" but rather a way of becoming deeply unpopular very fast. Even Nicola may not find herself immune to this. The utter disregard of the economic and health consequences of Covid restrictions may well be coming to an end. Whilst not be a member of the "let it rip" brigade I would welcome this. Enough of the mallet, find the rapier.

    Indeed. Though the thing I don't understand is the government's insistence upon a 66% furlough scheme rather than an 80% one.

    If a business is going to be closed by law then an 80% furlough seems entirely appropriate to me. Quibbling over this 14% differential seems to have saved the Exchequer not that much money relative to overall Covid spending but is giving a lot of grievance and will make a big difference to those who are subject to the restrictions.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    The mistake the government are again making is pissing about. They introduce Tier system, then change some regions a couple of days later, and now debating with Burnham if to put Manchester in Tier 3 or not.

    You make a decision, you do it, you get on with it. Not 2 weeks of discussions and debates, briefings to the media, public here we are going into it, no we aren't, yes we are. You decide, you enact it within the day.

    All this stems from Bozo’s failure - or inability - to do the politics first time around.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    Do you wish Drakeford had the balls to do the same?
  • isam said:
    I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.
    Why Sweden? That's a nice bit of cherry-picking by isam, but overall Sweden has done quite badly to date, with a high number of deaths per million. We'd do better looking at Norway, or Greece, or Australia, or Germany, or Japan, or Taiwan, or any number of other places for that matter.
  • Khan has just said we should have a 2 week circuit breaker to get a fully functioning test and trace system in place and come out of tier 2

    This is conspicuously nonsense

    Does he know that Dildo Harding is still in charge?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Sweden is IT. Or definitely is NOT it! Not sure. Need to consult the experts

    https://twitter.com/terrefebiruk/status/1313816264951857152
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
    Different things to what Big G was misreporting.

    The Leese and Burnham are pointing what will happen if the government don't get their finger out to support the area.
    Burnham is effectively trying to railroad HMG into a financial package that would see nobody adversely effected financially

    Any such package would be UK wide costing billions every day with no end in sight
    So, the conclusion is that we can't afford another lockdown.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:


    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.

    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    Why any Scottish Unionist would vote for Brexit baffles me.

    Firstly because English nationalism is quite alien to most Scots. You can rally to the Saltire and believe in a union of shared values, interests and mutual respect. The Brexit vision isn't that.

    Secondly, people vote SNP for a simple reason: they think independence would be a good thing. Not because they have a grievance. Support for the SNP and independence has never been higher. But that support has come entirely from former Unionists. No won in 2014 because there were more Unionists than nationalists. Now it's the other way round. That danger should give pause for thought for any Brexiteer Unionist, even if they don't actually see it as a problem themselves.
    That's deeply simplistic. I live in Dundee. A lot of people voted SNP in the City because a fairly looney left administration (including George Galloway) thought twinning with Nablus was more important than the state of Dundee's schools. Those of a centre left disposition despaired of Labour and voted for an apparently rational centre left party.
    Quite a few SNP supporters also voted for Brexit. There has always been an anti-EU strand in the SNP, indeed it was once party policy. Right now we have an unpopular Tory government doing unpopular things and a Labour party in Scotland that has almost ceased to function. The logical course for the centre left majority is that they vote SNP instead.

    Of course the vast majority of SNP supporters want independence although some like the idea a lot more than the practicalities. Some Labour supporters want independence too. There may even be 1 or 2 Tories of the same mind. Whether there are more Unionists or Nationalists in 2020 is yet to be properly tested. We shall see.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    Is it a matter of obligation that, knowing there is a pandemic around, you go and see your mother without taking any precautions?

    Do you go and see her now?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    The mistake the government are again making is pissing about. They introduce Tier system, then change some regions a couple of days later, and now debating with Burnham if to put Manchester in Tier 3 or not.

    You make a decision, you do it, you get on with it. Not 2 weeks of discussions and debates, briefings to the media, public here we are going into it, no we aren't, yes we are. You decide, you enact it within the day.

    All this stems from Bozo’s failure - or inability - to do the politics first time around.
    Actually, I think there is another issue. For all the lying and flip flopping for personal advantage, I genuinely believe that one thing Boris really fundamentally has a problem with is taking away people's freedoms. I think he is philosophically against lockdown measures.

    It is why he was too slow to start with, hoping we could get away with people taking it upon themselves and following some general advice. Why he released the brakes too much too quickly. And now trying to find some sort of fudge that allows as many people as possible not to be locked down.

    The problem is for a pandemic that is totally the wrong impulses.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    isam said:

    When people die of flu, is it the person they caught it off that killed them?

    Yes. The person is the vector. . Like a malaria-carrying mosquito. It's another matter whether that is done with knowledge, understanding, and responsibility for the consequences, but in common sense ...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    ME2 is now blue on 538. Iowa is the first red state, then Texas.
  • Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
    Different things to what Big G was misreporting.

    The Leese and Burnham are pointing what will happen if the government don't get their finger out to support the area.
    Burnham is effectively trying to railroad HMG into a financial package that would see nobody adversely effected financially

    Any such package would be UK wide costing billions every day with no end in sight
    Absolutely of course it will, as it did when there was a lockdown last time. That's the price of having a lockdown.

    If you don't want to pay the bill, don't have a lockdown. If you do want to have a lockdown, that is the price of it.

    Pick a poison. Don't just lock down but doing it on the cheap - if the government are saying you can't go to work the government has a responsibility to pay wages. If the government are saying they're not going to pay wages, you should be able to go to work and work should be able to trade in order to pay you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    edited October 2020

    DavidL said:

    Hi all. Very interesting article. I’m a fan of the site and thought I’d de-lurk for a bit.

    A few thoughts: how reliable is any polling during the current global pandemic? Is it likely to be skewed by people’s natural tendency to ‘cling to nurse’, in this case Sturgeon, and be distracted from ‘usual’ day to day voter issues? The shift in Scottish polls seems to tie as much to COVID as to Brexit (with No still ahead in most polls until this year).

    Ipsos had a 9% Yes lead in 2015 and another, smaller 4% lead the next year around the time most other companies were reporting solid No leads.This latest poll is out of line with the Survation non-standard q poll and Savanta Comres from around the same period. Who knows who’s right, but what’s the likely reason for this?

    Welcome. As a Unionist I hope that this a reflection on Nicola Sturgeon, mother of the nation in times of trouble, stuff. It would certainly help if her party members would get on with stabbing her husband and then her in the back, the front and pretty much everywhere else they can reach.
    While I'm no snowflake, your last sentence does seem rather out of character, being an unnecessarily violent metaphor, for you.
    Even house trained Unionists are going a bit doolally at the moment. The loyalist elements are on the verge of armed insurrection.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    IanB2 said:

    The mistake the government are again making is pissing about. They introduce Tier system, then change some regions a couple of days later, and now debating with Burnham if to put Manchester in Tier 3 or not.

    You make a decision, you do it, you get on with it. Not 2 weeks of discussions and debates, briefings to the media, public here we are going into it, no we aren't, yes we are. You decide, you enact it within the day.

    All this stems from Bozo’s failure - or inability - to do the politics first time around.
    Actually, I think there is another issue. For all the lying and flip flopping for personal advantage, I genuinely believe that one thing Boris really fundamentally has a problem with is taking away people's freedoms. I think he is philosophically against lockdown measures.

    It is why he was too slow to start with, hoping we could get away with people taking it upon themselves and following some general advice. Why he released the brakes too much too quickly. And now trying to find some sort of fudge that allows as many people as possible not to be locked down.

    The problem is for a pandemic that is totally the wrong impulses.
    You need a clear decisive lead in a pandemic, and also ruthlessness with your own team if they've contravened guidelines.
    And that's the big difference between Sturgeon and Boris.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Carnyx said:

    isam said:

    When people die of flu, is it the person they caught it off that killed them?

    Yes. The person is the vector. . Like a malaria-carrying mosquito. It's another matter whether that is done with knowledge, understanding, and responsibility for the consequences, but in common sense ...
    Charge people who the deceased caught flu off... with manslaughter!
  • IanB2 said:

    The mistake the government are again making is pissing about. They introduce Tier system, then change some regions a couple of days later, and now debating with Burnham if to put Manchester in Tier 3 or not.

    You make a decision, you do it, you get on with it. Not 2 weeks of discussions and debates, briefings to the media, public here we are going into it, no we aren't, yes we are. You decide, you enact it within the day.

    All this stems from Bozo’s failure - or inability - to do the politics first time around.
    Actually, I think there is another issue. For all the lying and flip flopping for personal advantage, I genuinely believe that one thing Boris really fundamentally has a problem with is taking away people's freedoms. I think he is philosophically against lockdown measures.

    It is why he was too slow to start with, hoping we could get away with people taking it upon themselves and following some general advice. Why he released the brakes too much too quickly. And now trying to find some sort of fudge that allows as many people as possible not to be locked down.

    The problem is for a pandemic that is totally the wrong impulses.
    Is it the wrong impulse?

    If a government is going to take away liberties then I absolutely want them not to do so unless its a very last resort and to release them as soon as possible.

    A government led by someone who wanted to take away liberties, with an excuse to do so, is in my view far more dangerous.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:


    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.

    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
    Why any Scottish Unionist would vote for Brexit baffles me.

    Firstly because English nationalism is quite alien to most Scots. You can rally to the Saltire and believe in a union of shared values, interests and mutual respect. The Brexit vision isn't that.

    Secondly, people vote SNP for a simple reason: they think independence would be a good thing. Not because they have a grievance. Support for the SNP and independence has never been higher. But that support has come entirely from former Unionists. No won in 2014 because there were more Unionists than nationalists. Now it's the other way round. That danger should give pause for thought for any Brexiteer Unionist, even if they don't actually see it as a problem themselves.
    That's deeply simplistic. I live in Dundee. A lot of people voted SNP in the City because a fairly looney left administration (including George Galloway) thought twinning with Nablus was more important than the state of Dundee's schools. Those of a centre left disposition despaired of Labour and voted for an apparently rational centre left party.
    Quite a few SNP supporters also voted for Brexit. There has always been an anti-EU strand in the SNP, indeed it was once party policy. Right now we have an unpopular Tory government doing unpopular things and a Labour party in Scotland that has almost ceased to function. The logical course for the centre left majority is that they vote SNP instead.

    Of course the vast majority of SNP supporters want independence although some like the idea a lot more than the practicalities. Some Labour supporters want independence too. There may even be 1 or 2 Tories of the same mind. Whether there are more Unionists or Nationalists in 2020 is yet to be properly tested. We shall see.
    I can understand why SNP supporters would vote for Brexit, just as I can understand why English Unionists might. Scottish Unionists, not so much. But clearly some do!

    EDIT. As I replied to Casino. Boris Johnson has overseen a nine percentage point increase in support for independence (Nicola sends her hearty thanks!) Is it permanent damage (from a Unionist perspective) ? Or is reversible, and if so, how?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,859

    DavidL said:

    Hi all. Very interesting article. I’m a fan of the site and thought I’d de-lurk for a bit.

    A few thoughts: how reliable is any polling during the current global pandemic? Is it likely to be skewed by people’s natural tendency to ‘cling to nurse’, in this case Sturgeon, and be distracted from ‘usual’ day to day voter issues? The shift in Scottish polls seems to tie as much to COVID as to Brexit (with No still ahead in most polls until this year).

    Ipsos had a 9% Yes lead in 2015 and another, smaller 4% lead the next year around the time most other companies were reporting solid No leads.This latest poll is out of line with the Survation non-standard q poll and Savanta Comres from around the same period. Who knows who’s right, but what’s the likely reason for this?

    Welcome. As a Unionist I hope that this a reflection on Nicola Sturgeon, mother of the nation in times of trouble, stuff. It would certainly help if her party members would get on with stabbing her husband and then her in the back, the front and pretty much everywhere else they can reach.
    While I'm no snowflake, your last sentence does seem rather out of character, being an unnecessarily violent metaphor, for you.
    Yeah, that's probably fair. I started off with a stabbing in the back cliche and got rather carried away.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    This idea you can just "fix" track and trace to such an extent that it captures an incredibly high percentage of people is for the birds. When when cases were very low and PHE by all accounts did a good job, they couldn't stop the spread. You can't do this manually, its too slow, even if it was well run, people were more responsive to the alerts and complied with the advice.

    By the nature of the disease, by the time you find somebody its been several days of spreading.

    The only people doing this successfully over a long period are South Korea....and that involves the state spying on its population and an incredible level of IT / automation that they build out over many years due to SARS.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    I don't believe Brady is arguing for the Starmer plan of 2 weeks of effective Tier 3, while arguing against a month of Tier 3 is he?
    Different things to what Big G was misreporting.

    The Leese and Burnham are pointing what will happen if the government don't get their finger out to support the area.
    Burnham is effectively trying to railroad HMG into a financial package that would see nobody adversely effected financially

    Any such package would be UK wide costing billions every day with no end in sight
    So, the conclusion is that we can't afford another lockdown.
    Exactly the point. My local MP said as much at a BBQ a few weeks ago.
  • isam said:
    I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.
    Why Sweden? That's a nice bit of cherry-picking by isam, but overall Sweden has done quite badly to date, with a high number of deaths per million. We'd do better looking at Norway, or Greece, or Australia, or Germany, or Japan, or Taiwan, or any number of other places for that matter.
    Pretty much anywhere that is not run by blond haired narcissistic populists.
  • isam said:
    I recall when Sweden first took its divergent course on Covid certain parties considered that it shouldn't be compared to its close neighbours. Glad that's been cleared up.
  • TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    Is it a matter of obligation that, knowing there is a pandemic around, you go and see your mother without taking any precautions?

    Do you go and see her now?
    I have to go round to do jobs for her. Shopping, walking the dog, mowing the lawn, household repairs, etc. Obviously I wear a mask and keep my distance while I'm there, but these precautions don't completely eliminate the risk that I would pass covid on to her. Also, as a man in my 50s, I don't much fancy catching it myself, so I am doubly grateful that my son is such a sensible lad.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,390

    Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions

    Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace

    It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
    Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?

    Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.

    “There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”

    Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.

    “All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.

    “I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
    Because Burnham does not like local lockdown he wants to damage the parts of the country where covid is a lesser threat
    Don't be absurd, really - that's too partisan for words, and a slur on Burnham. You expressed earlier fears about your area, I think, and what your Asda driver was telling you. Isn't it clear that the virus is spreading rapidly from north to south, from large cities to small towns?

    It's instructive looking at Malmesbury's data day by day over the last month. The spread of cases (both absolute and per 100K) is illustrated perfectly. A month ago, a handful of northern red/green cities up at the top. Look at yesterday's in comparison - there are few areas now, other than a handful of sparsely populated bits, where the virus is not a) present, and b) rising rapidly.

    We are back in early March, I suspect. More dithering will lead to more deaths - not just Covid, but other preventable deaths from over-burdened hospitals. And the idea that this would benefit the economy is daft.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited October 2020
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    Is it a matter of obligation that, knowing there is a pandemic around, you go and see your mother without taking any precautions?

    Do you go and see her now?
    I fear that we`re trapped in all this until people become risk aware rather than risk averse.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hi all. Very interesting article. I’m a fan of the site and thought I’d de-lurk for a bit.

    A few thoughts: how reliable is any polling during the current global pandemic? Is it likely to be skewed by people’s natural tendency to ‘cling to nurse’, in this case Sturgeon, and be distracted from ‘usual’ day to day voter issues? The shift in Scottish polls seems to tie as much to COVID as to Brexit (with No still ahead in most polls until this year).

    Ipsos had a 9% Yes lead in 2015 and another, smaller 4% lead the next year around the time most other companies were reporting solid No leads.This latest poll is out of line with the Survation non-standard q poll and Savanta Comres from around the same period. Who knows who’s right, but what’s the likely reason for this?

    Welcome. As a Unionist I hope that this a reflection on Nicola Sturgeon, mother of the nation in times of trouble, stuff. It would certainly help if her party members would get on with stabbing her husband and then her in the back, the front and pretty much everywhere else they can reach.
    While I'm no snowflake, your last sentence does seem rather out of character, being an unnecessarily violent metaphor, for you.
    Yeah, that's probably fair. I started off with a stabbing in the back cliche and got rather carried away.
    Have you used that in the defence of one of your clients?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,103
    edited October 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    The mistake the government are again making is pissing about. They introduce Tier system, then change some regions a couple of days later, and now debating with Burnham if to put Manchester in Tier 3 or not.

    You make a decision, you do it, you get on with it. Not 2 weeks of discussions and debates, briefings to the media, public here we are going into it, no we aren't, yes we are. You decide, you enact it within the day.

    All this stems from Bozo’s failure - or inability - to do the politics first time around.
    Actually, I think there is another issue. For all the lying and flip flopping for personal advantage, I genuinely believe that one thing Boris really fundamentally has a problem with is taking away people's freedoms. I think he is philosophically against lockdown measures.

    It is why he was too slow to start with, hoping we could get away with people taking it upon themselves and following some general advice. Why he released the brakes too much too quickly. And now trying to find some sort of fudge that allows as many people as possible not to be locked down.

    The problem is for a pandemic that is totally the wrong impulses.
    You need a clear decisive lead in a pandemic, and also ruthlessness with your own team if they've contravened guidelines.
    And that's the big difference between Sturgeon and Boris.
    I think Boris also misjudged the British public, thinking good old common sense would really help. Instead we have had the media mudding the waters and publicizing loopholes and exceptions and too many of the public deciding it doesn't apply to them.

    Boris fault is he then repeats this incorrect presumption time and time again.

    Out of interest, I presume in Sweden and Germany the media don't spend hours on end explaining how if you do x and y you can avoid these particular rules applying to you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1316715349220483072?s=20

    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
    London admissions going up around 16% a week, with cases rising by 64% a week. (2 weeks' occurrence/sample date data to 7/10, best fit) Indicative of a phase where mainly young people are catching it perhaps.

    It broadly the pattern that as things develop case increase and admissions increase come into line. In the north of England, Scotland and NI these line up closely, in the Midlands, South and Wales, they don't. (mind you, Welsh data seems to have done entirely its own thing throughout).
    Most likely young people are saying "Sod it, I'm living my life" and catching a mild disease no worse than a two day hangover, whilst old folk are being more cautious and staying in

    With the result that our politicians are outbidding each other to take away our freedom
    Not my 16-year-old lad. He's not that selfish or stupid. Yes, he'd like to be out partying, but he understands that this makes it more likely that he will catch covid and pass it on to me, and that I might then pass it on to, e.g, my housebound mother and kill her.
    Is it a matter of obligation that, knowing there is a pandemic around, you go and see your mother without taking any precautions?

    Do you go and see her now?
    I have to go round to do jobs for her. Shopping, walking the dog, mowing the lawn, household repairs, etc. Obviously I wear a mask and keep my distance while I'm there, but these precautions don't completely eliminate the risk that I would pass covid on to her. Also, as a man in my 50s, I don't much fancy catching it myself, so I am doubly grateful that my son is such a sensible lad.
    Your son and you have proven that people can be trusted. The government thinks that your common sense needs to be regulated.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Seems a lot of drama over the NBC decision . This would assume that Trump left to his own devices for an hour will help him ! Biden is playing defence so he could care less if Trumps ratings are higher. Trump might gloat but voters aren’t going to vote for him because he had better tv ratings .
  • I don't understand why Sunak is so adamant on 2/3 for regional lockdowns.

    It would be cheaper to pay 80% (or even 100%) locally than going back into a national lockdown.

    Don't cut corners or do a lockdown on the cheap, if you want it to work do it properly. Or don't do it and let people get to work.
This discussion has been closed.