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A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections – political

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 15 in General
A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections – politicalbetting.com

And a majority looks well within the SNP’s grasp at this early point – @theSNP are riding high in both votes, with the Conservatives in 2nd place and Labour in 3rd (3/6) pic.twitter.com/4QQhQVuYW0

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 4,332
    edited October 15
    First.

    It just ain't right. I don't read the site for several days then I get in here.

    And at the moment I have nothing to say.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032
    Neither have I
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 391
    Doesn't stop most people from saying nothing all the time!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    I wish the SNP good luck in the election and good luck in the referendum which is only a matter of when not if now.

    Scotland will be better off taking responsibility for itself and being our friendly neighbours. Good luck to them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    Second. Like SCUP.

    Very pleased to have this analysis - many thanks.

    I also see that the Green vote seems to have collapsed, but on checking, that's just cos people don't vote Green in the constituency but in the list. When one checks, a very different perspective opens - the Greens have overtaken the LDs.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867

    Doesn't stop most people from saying nothing all the time!

    The internet equivalent of one hand clapping.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Scottish Labour are not going to win back any SNP voters at Holyrood next year, as Mori shows 92% of Yes backers are backing the SNP.

    Instead given 47% of No voters back the Scottish Conservatives and only 25% back Scottish Labour to make any progress at constituency level in the Central belt next year Scottish Labour has to target Scottish Tory voters and ask them to lend them a tactical vote to support a Unionist candidate to beat the SNP in seats the Tories have no chance while still voting Tory on the list.

    So forget SNP voters, Starmer and Leonard need to start lovebombing Scottish Tories!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    edited October 15
    geoffw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A compromise could be EU vessels allowed to fish the seas off of Scotland and Northern Ireland, but not ostensibly English and welsh catch.

    That'd put the cat amongst the pigeons.

    How do the Channel Islands affect territorial waters? And the Isle of Man?

    FPT - Carla postyed something yesterday. Guernseyers not happy to find that the London gmt proposes to have legislation [edit[ which allows it to override the CIs when it comes to perhaps selling them out to Les Continentaux. (didn't look at it in detail myself)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    edited October 15
    HYUFD said:

    Scottish Labour are not going to win back any SNP voters at Holyrood next year, as Mori shows 92% of Yes backers are backing the SNP.

    Instead given 47% of No voters back the Scottish Conservatives and only 25% back Scottish Labour to make any progress at constituency level in the Central belt next year Scottish Labour has to target Scottish Tory voters and ask them to lend them a tactical vote to support a Unionist candidate to beat the SNP in seats the Tories have no chance while still voting Tory on the list.

    So forget SNP voters, Starmer and Leonard need to start lovebombing Scottish Tories!

    But people like you keep telling us that lots of SNP voters don't really want independence.

    Edit: and SLAB history of late (1997 on, IIRC) has been that at least two key figures tell their voters to vote Tory to keep the SNP out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    HYUFD said:

    Scottish Labour are not going to win back any SNP voters at Holyrood next year, as Mori shows 92% of Yes backers are backing the SNP.

    Instead given 47% of No voters back the Scottish Conservatives and only 25% back Scottish Labour to make any progress at constituency level in the Central belt next year Scottish Labour has to target Scottish Tory voters and ask them to lend them a tactical vote to support a Unionist candidate to beat the SNP in seats the Tories have no chance while still voting Tory on the list.

    So forget SNP voters, Starmer and Leonard need to start lovebombing Scottish Tories!

    And another thing - yoiu keep forgetting the Greens. Labour have to compete for those too.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,618
    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,982

    Doesn't stop most people from saying nothing all the time!

    That's just the thread headers! :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Foxy said:
    Incoming Trump tweet about chin diaper wearers....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,287
    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A compromise could be EU vessels allowed to fish the seas off of Scotland and Northern Ireland, but not ostensibly English and welsh catch.

    That'd put the cat amongst the pigeons.

    How do the Channel Islands affect territorial waters? And the Isle of Man?

    FPT - Carla postyed something yesterday. Guernseyers not happy to find that the London gmt proposes to have legislation [edit[ which allows it to override the CIs when it comes to perhaps selling them out to Les Continentaux. (didn't look at it in detail myself)
    I assume that the median line rule applied to the Channel Islands implies those are British waters. If there's a compromise that involves waiving that then the Channel Islanders would need to be compensated. I'm sure they could think of something.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 15
    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    Foxy said:
    Off topic.

    I would house Biden in a hermetically sealed safe room between now and November 3rd!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 15


    He's does jealous he only has fake ones ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scottish Labour are not going to win back any SNP voters at Holyrood next year, as Mori shows 92% of Yes backers are backing the SNP.

    Instead given 47% of No voters back the Scottish Conservatives and only 25% back Scottish Labour to make any progress at constituency level in the Central belt next year Scottish Labour has to target Scottish Tory voters and ask them to lend them a tactical vote to support a Unionist candidate to beat the SNP in seats the Tories have no chance while still voting Tory on the list.

    So forget SNP voters, Starmer and Leonard need to start lovebombing Scottish Tories!

    And another thing - yoiu keep forgetting the Greens. Labour have to compete for those too.
    No they don't, they are irrelevant on the constituency vote, only relevant on the list
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    Independence is the thorn in the Scottish lion's paw.

    Until someone plays the role of Androcles, there is no moving forwards with Scottish politics.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Foxy said:
    Off topic.

    I would house Biden in a hermetically sealed safe room between now and November 3rd!
    A basement perhaps? Trump would love that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    edited October 15
    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    Hmm, interesting.

    You're right about indy and Slab. Just consider how it was the Scottish TORIES who are most desperate for Slab to extradigitate and get rid of Mr Leonard.

    In 2014 they got Slab ot be their penal battalion [edit] to rush over the electoral minefield and clear the electoral field for the Scottish, sorry British, Tories to climb to partial success over their corpses. The Tories want that to happen again.

    Yet Slab is not independent of London - being head of it is an illusion (and the very name is only permitted by a fiddle of electoral legislation exempting the word 'Scottish' from the need to be truthful on the ballot). And yet the Labour MPs in Scotland will never allow Slab to go independent - peerages call too strongly.

    But the party only has 1 MP and precious little hope of getting many more on the evidence here. So ...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,324
    DavidL said:

    Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end.

    I think I have a suggestion for you...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037

    DavidL said:

    Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end.

    I think I have a suggestion for you...
    Not sure I am going to like it though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scottish Labour are not going to win back any SNP voters at Holyrood next year, as Mori shows 92% of Yes backers are backing the SNP.

    Instead given 47% of No voters back the Scottish Conservatives and only 25% back Scottish Labour to make any progress at constituency level in the Central belt next year Scottish Labour has to target Scottish Tory voters and ask them to lend them a tactical vote to support a Unionist candidate to beat the SNP in seats the Tories have no chance while still voting Tory on the list.

    So forget SNP voters, Starmer and Leonard need to start lovebombing Scottish Tories!

    And another thing - yoiu keep forgetting the Greens. Labour have to compete for those too.
    No they don't, they are irrelevant on the constituency vote, only relevant on the list
    The list also produces MSPs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,673
    How long till she is back on the SNP benches?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    FPT - if Eric Clapton really did turn up to the local church to play something I really hope he played Layla.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    Foxy said:
    Off topic.

    I would house Biden in a hermetically sealed safe room between now and November 3rd!
    A basement perhaps? Trump would love that.
    I was thinking Spartan luxury, with lots of medics on hand just in caseTrump finds his way in and breathes on him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    Independence is the thorn in the Scottish lion's paw.

    Until someone plays the role of Androcles, there is no moving forwards with Scottish politics.
    Or is it the tiger in its tank? If a lion can use a tiger in that way.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    The rise of the Scottish Tories means I think its impossible pre-independence for the SNP hegemony to end, unless the SNP splinter themselves.

    Quite frankly as long as the SNP can keep the Yes vote united behind them there isn't any possibility of the Tories and any other party ending their hegemony.

    It is exactly the same as Brexit and the General Election in 2019.

    Since the Tories can't unite the No vote the only way the No vote can be united is if the Scottish Tories collapse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scottish Labour are not going to win back any SNP voters at Holyrood next year, as Mori shows 92% of Yes backers are backing the SNP.

    Instead given 47% of No voters back the Scottish Conservatives and only 25% back Scottish Labour to make any progress at constituency level in the Central belt next year Scottish Labour has to target Scottish Tory voters and ask them to lend them a tactical vote to support a Unionist candidate to beat the SNP in seats the Tories have no chance while still voting Tory on the list.

    So forget SNP voters, Starmer and Leonard need to start lovebombing Scottish Tories!

    And another thing - yoiu keep forgetting the Greens. Labour have to compete for those too.
    No they don't, they are irrelevant on the constituency vote, only relevant on the list
    The list also produces MSPs.
    Most Green voters will vote SNP on the constituency and Green on the list, they will not vote Labour for either
  • I don't think Labour will do very well at next years Holyrood elections but I can still see them realistically polling about 16-18% holding onto Dumbarton, Edinburgh Southern and East Lothian and gaining Rutherglen and Cowdenbeath through tactical voting on a good day.

    There's no evidence that any alternative MSP leader such as Daniel Johnson, Sarah Boyack, Anas Sarwar
    etcwould do much better than him per se so I don't think a replacement is worth bothering with.


    An SNP-Green majority is not an inevitability by an any means even though Sturgeon is popular with the 16-45 vote as Ross Greer's seat is on a shoogly peg and the SNP are likely pile up wasted votes in some urban constituencies in places like Dundee, Aberdeen, Stirling, Glasgow where they already strong.

    The Tories are certain to go backwards in places like Edinburgh but will likely hold their ground well in places like Aberdeenshire, Moray, Ayrshire, Perthshire, Borders etc and could quite plausibly pick up a few more FPTP seats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    Independence is the thorn in the Scottish lion's paw.

    Until someone plays the role of Androcles, there is no moving forwards with Scottish politics.
    Or is it the tiger in its tank? If a lion can use a tiger in that way.
    The tiger who came to tea?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    But surely SLAB and the Tories have basically joined forces in local government to create de facto British nationalist administrations - togethert with the kind of 'independent' which doesn't want to admit it's a tulchan Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    The rise of the Scottish Tories means I think its impossible pre-independence for the SNP hegemony to end, unless the SNP splinter themselves.

    Quite frankly as long as the SNP can keep the Yes vote united behind them there isn't any possibility of the Tories and any other party ending their hegemony.

    It is exactly the same as Brexit and the General Election in 2019.

    Since the Tories can't unite the No vote the only way the No vote can be united is if the Scottish Tories collapse.
    Holyrood however has PR top up via the list, if Westminster had PR top up last year the Tories may have won most seats but there would likely have been an anti hard Brexit majority combining the Labour, LD, SNP and Green and SDLP and PC votes.

    Similarly Unionist parties can get a majority at Holyrood even if the SNP win most seats
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    Leonard looks like someone who's escaped from a care home.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 344



    He's does jealous he only has fake ones ;-)
    You have to be pretty stubborn to survive a PhD.
  • isamisam Posts: 33,847
    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,618
    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    Hmm, interesting.

    You're right about indy and Slab. Just consider how it was the Scottish TORIES who are most desperate for Slab to extradigitate and get rid of Mr Leonard.

    In 2014 they got Slab ot be their penal battalion [edit] to rush over the electoral minefield and clear the electoral field for the Scottish, sorry British, Tories to climb to partial success over their corpses. The Tories want that to happen again.

    Yet Slab is not independent of London - being head of it is an illusion (and the very name is only permitted by a fiddle of electoral legislation exempting the word 'Scottish' from the need to be truthful on the ballot). And yet the Labour MPs in Scotland will never allow Slab to go independent - peerages call too strongly.

    But the party only has 1 MP and precious little hope of getting many more on the evidence here. So ...
    My thinking is that a large part of SNP support is ex-Labour. By definition, as the movement from one dominant party to another was enabled by a big shift of voters. Those people support SNP probably because they prioritise independence as an issue over social justice. (I know the SNP say they are a progressive party too, but I don't really buy it. People support the SNP because they support independence and always have done).

    Which suggests if voters perceive independence as settled, one way or the other, they will prioritise social justice again. That's Scottish Labour's opportunity.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    I don't think Labour will do very well at next years Holyrood elections but I can still see them realistically polling about 16-18% holding onto Dumbarton, Edinburgh Southern and East Lothian and gaining Rutherglen and Cowdenbeath through tactical voting on a good day.

    There's no evidence that any alternative MSP leader such as Daniel Johnson, Sarah Boyack, Anas Sarwar
    etcwould do much better than him per se so I don't think a replacement is worth bothering with.


    An SNP-Green majority is not an inevitability by an any means even though Sturgeon is popular with the 16-45 vote as Ross Greer's seat is on a shoogly peg and the SNP are likely pile up wasted votes in some urban constituencies in places like Dundee, Aberdeen, Stirling, Glasgow where they already strong.

    The Tories are certain to go backwards in places like Edinburgh but will likely hold their ground well in places like Aberdeenshire, Moray, Ayrshire, Perthshire, Borders etc and could quite plausibly pick up a few more FPTP seats.

    What happens if Eck does for Nippy in the SNP's internecine war?

    I am guessing so long as Johnson is around, not much, but Nippy has a big personal following, so it might have a small effect.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    Scott_xP said:
    Clever chap, GSOH, a criminal lawyer rather than a Civil man which may make it more challenging for him to deal with the public law aspects. Lord Keen is a considerable loss to the government and it was more than slightly careless to misplace him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    The rise of the Scottish Tories means I think its impossible pre-independence for the SNP hegemony to end, unless the SNP splinter themselves.

    Quite frankly as long as the SNP can keep the Yes vote united behind them there isn't any possibility of the Tories and any other party ending their hegemony.

    It is exactly the same as Brexit and the General Election in 2019.

    Since the Tories can't unite the No vote the only way the No vote can be united is if the Scottish Tories collapse.
    But surely the Tories have a better chance of uniting the No vote than Labour because there is a correlation between right of centre political views and support for the union.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 19,949
    It's difficult to see where the LD's are actually going to improve anywhere, let alone Scotland.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    edited October 15
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    The rise of the Scottish Tories means I think its impossible pre-independence for the SNP hegemony to end, unless the SNP splinter themselves.

    Quite frankly as long as the SNP can keep the Yes vote united behind them there isn't any possibility of the Tories and any other party ending their hegemony.

    It is exactly the same as Brexit and the General Election in 2019.

    Since the Tories can't unite the No vote the only way the No vote can be united is if the Scottish Tories collapse.
    Holyrood however has PR top up via the list, if Westminster had PR top up last year the Tories may have won most seats but there would likely have been an anti hard Brexit majority combining the Labour, LD, SNP and Green and SDLP and PC votes.

    Similarly Unionist parties can get a majority at Holyrood even if the SNP win most seats
    I don't think you understand how the Holyrood system works if you believe that.

    At the last election the SNP "only" got 41.7% of the List vote, much less than the Tories got at the General Election. They got 48.9% of the seats in Holyrood though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    Surely the SNP and SGreen voters support independence, and the SCon and SLD oppose, but of the remainder many will be SLAB. They may well be more split over Indy, depending on whether they hate the Nats or the Tories the most.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    It's difficult to see where the LD's are actually going to improve anywhere, let alone Scotland.

    Without a Scottish Leader they may well lose Westminster seats in 2024.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,693
    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    Because some people know what exponential increase means when there's a two week delay in symptoms.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    FF43 said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    Hmm, interesting.

    You're right about indy and Slab. Just consider how it was the Scottish TORIES who are most desperate for Slab to extradigitate and get rid of Mr Leonard.

    In 2014 they got Slab ot be their penal battalion [edit] to rush over the electoral minefield and clear the electoral field for the Scottish, sorry British, Tories to climb to partial success over their corpses. The Tories want that to happen again.

    Yet Slab is not independent of London - being head of it is an illusion (and the very name is only permitted by a fiddle of electoral legislation exempting the word 'Scottish' from the need to be truthful on the ballot). And yet the Labour MPs in Scotland will never allow Slab to go independent - peerages call too strongly.

    But the party only has 1 MP and precious little hope of getting many more on the evidence here. So ...
    My thinking is that a large part of SNP support is ex-Labour. By definition, as the movement from one dominant party to another was enabled by a big shift of voters. Those people support SNP probably because they prioritise independence as an issue over social justice. (I know the SNP say they are a progressive party too, but I don't really buy it. People support the SNP because they support independence and always have done).

    Which suggests if voters perceive independence as settled, one way or the other, they will prioritise social justice again. That's Scottish Labour's opportunity.
    An interesting thought.

    Yet I don't agree re social democracy. When Mr Corbyn came to Scotland to give his infamous lecture with its demands on key elements of social democracy, most of the demands had either been met, were in process, or had been blocked by the revisions of the Scotland Act labour wanted. Okay, his demand to renationalise the water industry was rejected but then it had never been privatised here - in part due to a previous Labour administration of IIRC Strathclyde which organised a referendum (which is, BTW, an interesting model in the current circs.)

    But back to your analkysis, and my reactiomn is that the Tories, in Scotland and London, are doing their very best to make sure that the question of indy is not settled, in the most arrogant and undemicratic manner possible. .
  • HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    But "reminding" Scots about tariffs on a future IndyScot's exports to England means they, and the Engllish, first have to be aware about tariffs (and their implicit higher prices) on EU exports to the UK from January 1st 2021.
    Some people are in for a shock.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,287
    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    For fifty years after WWII Labour regarded it's Scottish constituencies as their fiefdoms. In fact I recall Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke when she was General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party telling me you could get an ape elected in Dundee West as long as it has a red rosette.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Oh god, even more Piers Moron...

    Rebekah Brooks has taken Piers Morgan to lunch today after his appearances on all three News UK radio stations to plug his new book – what are old friends for after all. Rebekah personally escorted Piers around the building. Speculation is that she is trying to get him for the new TV channel.

    https://order-order.com/2020/10/15/rebekah-want-piers-on-her-new-tv-station/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 6,867
    Foxy said:

    It's difficult to see where the LD's are actually going to improve anywhere, let alone Scotland.

    Without a Scottish Leader they may well lose Westminster seats in 2024.
    Why do you say that, please?
  • isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,618
    edited October 15

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    Boris Johnson has overseen a 9 percentage point increase in support for Scottish independence in his one year of premiership. Which is quite remarkable. The SNP should be deeply grateful to him.

    The question is whether the damage (from a Unionist perspective) is permanent. And if it is reversible, how is it actually reversed?
  • isamisam Posts: 33,847

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    I really do
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    edited October 15
    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    For fifty years after WWII Labour regarded it's Scottish constituencies as their fiefdoms. In fact I recall Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke when she was General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party telling me you could get an ape elected in Dundee West as long as it has a red rosette.

    I think that they tested that theory with Jim McGovern, a deeply, deeply uninspiring individual. It worked a couple of times in fairness.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 15
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 2,929
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    OK lets call it what it is.

    The very worst of all possible worlds.
  • Regarding the Scottish Parliament, I notice that 28 out of 129 MSPs have already announced they are standing down. In part this may simply be due to age because quite a few have been there since the first election in 1999.

    Certainly a changing of the guard and a chance for all parties to bring in some fresh talent
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 15

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    The rise of the Scottish Tories means I think its impossible pre-independence for the SNP hegemony to end, unless the SNP splinter themselves.

    Quite frankly as long as the SNP can keep the Yes vote united behind them there isn't any possibility of the Tories and any other party ending their hegemony.

    It is exactly the same as Brexit and the General Election in 2019.

    Since the Tories can't unite the No vote the only way the No vote can be united is if the Scottish Tories collapse.
    Holyrood however has PR top up via the list, if Westminster had PR top up last year the Tories may have won most seats but there would likely have been an anti hard Brexit majority combining the Labour, LD, SNP and Green and SDLP and PC votes.

    Similarly Unionist parties can get a majority at Holyrood even if the SNP win most seats
    I don't think you understand how the Holyrood system works if you believe that.

    At the last election the SNP "only" got 41.7% of the List vote, much less than the Tories got at the General Election. They got 48.9% of the seats in Holyrood though.
    No, as the SNP got 46.5% on the constituency seats, higher than the Tories got at the General Election.

    With the list system for UK general elections some Tories would have voted LD or Brexit Party on the list even if they gave the Tories their first vote at constituency level to keep out Corbyn Labour's candidate or deliver Brexit respectively.

    So the LDs would likely have got more seats and the Tories less percentage wise combining constituency and list seats and the Brexit Party would also have gained seats at the Tories expense so no net change for hard Brexit with them but a shift against hard Brexit due to the extra LD MPs elected on the list.

    In 2016 the SNP had a big majority of 45 at Holyrood on the constituency seats but no majority at all combining the constituency and list seats, leaving them reliant on the Greens to keep a nationalist majority overall
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    Quite unbelievable news about the Trump townhall that NBC is going to show.

    At Trump's insistence it will be scheduled head to head with the Biden townhall.

    NBC are cretins.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 35,314
    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    How are we being "all locked up"?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Alistair said:

    Quite unbelievable news about the Trump townhall that NBC is going to show.

    At Trump's insistence it will be scheduled head to head with the Biden townhall.

    NBC are cretins.

    Its going to be like the hand-egg....going to the Octo-box, for 7hrs of commercial free....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    Surely the SNP and SGreen voters support independence, and the SCon and SLD oppose, but of the remainder many will be SLAB. They may well be more split over Indy, depending on whether they hate the Nats or the Tories the most.
    Yes, I think that’s right.

    My suggestion is that a solution needs to be found that allows a strong Scottish identity to be expressed within the United Kingdom.

    It’s for this reason that I’d have no issue with saltires being plastered all over Scottish exports rather than UJs, for instance. It’s important for the same reason that blue passports for the UK within the EU would have been.

    Symbols matter.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    Ferrier to face no police action for being stupid. It would be a dangerous precedent, in fairness.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    For fifty years after WWII Labour regarded it's Scottish constituencies as their fiefdoms. In fact I recall Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke when she was General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party telling me you could get an ape elected in Dundee West as long as it has a red rosette.

    That was the story across the UK, not just Scotland, here in Wales seats at Westminster were lost both to Plaid and Conservatives over the years, some of which they got back, and some they lost again. Best not to mention the Red Wall in England.

    Only the Conservatives retain swathes of guaranteed safe mainland seats outside Scotland. North of the border the SNP are unassailable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    Foxy said:
    Or reassuring that they're happy to disclose information (and presumably follow it up) which the White House wasn't until days later. The White House is still refusing to allow contact tracing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    Yes the vocab is going crazy. For me, Lockdown means something close to March 23.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 15
    The petition calls for free school meals to be available for every child from a household on Universal Credit or equivalent. This would mean the meals reach an additional 1.5 million children aged seven to 16, his campaign said.

    He also wants holiday meals and activities to be expanded to an extra 1.1 million, and the value of healthy food vouchers for pregnant women to be increased to increased to £4.25 per week (up from £3.10)

    https://www.bbc.com/news/education-54545772

    This is the problem with these types of government schemes, there are always more deserving cases to be found and it gets expanded and expanded, before you know it millions are getting it and it won't just be during an emergency.

    That was happened with Gordon Brown approach to lots of things. Start of with very deserving, then made aware of another sub-group that were deserving, but you couldn't precisely target them, so went for a wider group, rinse and repeat, and before you know it people on £50k a year on tax credits.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 2,929
    DavidL said:

    Ferrier to face no police action for being stupid. It would be a dangerous precedent, in fairness.

    But a gym owner gets five armed police and a barrage of fines for simply trying to keep his head above water.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,890
    I think these are the essential ingredients for a Labour resurgence at Holyrood 2021.

    1. The Covid crisis needs to be over. At the moment the crisis means Sturgeon is on TV every day and she gets the credit for every step forward and deftly blames Johnson for every step back.

    2. A critique of the SNP government that moved the debate onto non-Constitutional issues such as housing, education, health, economic development, etc.

    3. A credible set of policies for improving these which showed that progress could be made with current devolved powers - so the SNP couldn't blame Westminster for preventing them from doing stuff.

    4. A credible leader in Scotland to present the arguments for 2 and 3.

    Perhaps 1 is possible. I see no sign for the others. Labour will be buried. The Tories will use constitutional issues to win second place, but that's winning short term benefit at the expense of long term oblivion.

    I guess schadenfreude at Labour's expense will provide them with some cheer. I expect I'll continue with my reverse-Midas record and vote Labour, who will probably fall to third in a constituency they won in 2011.

    Although, I might vote Green if I decide that the Climate issue is more important to me than the Constitutional. It doesn't help that the Labour candidate is an unimaginative Corbynite.
  • Hi all. Very interesting article. I’m a fan of the site and thought I’d de-lurk for a bit.

    A few thoughts: how reliable is any polling during the current global pandemic? Is it likely to be skewed by people’s natural tendency to ‘cling to nurse’, in this case Sturgeon, and be distracted from ‘usual’ day to day voter issues? The shift in Scottish polls seems to tie as much to COVID as to Brexit (with No still ahead in most polls until this year).

    Ipsos had a 9% Yes lead in 2015 and another, smaller 4% lead the next year around the time most other companies were reporting solid No leads.This latest poll is out of line with the Survation non-standard q poll and Savanta Comres from around the same period. Who knows who’s right, but what’s the likely reason for this?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,912
    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    It's similar to the charts for Switzerland and other European countries. The death rate in spring & summer followed a normal 'Gompertz curve' in both Sweden and the UK.

    We're behaving irrationally ... and ill-informed voters are lapping it up.

    Only learned people with job security or safe pensions, like Profs. Ioainnides, Levitt, Spiegelhalter, Stadler, etc are saying anything radically different.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    The Union is much more important than Brexit to me but I am not convinced that it is relevant. Anyone who thinks that the SNP are ever, ever going to be short of a grievance clearly hasn't had the pleasure.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,693

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    It's similar to the charts for Switzerland and other European countries. The death rate in spring & summer followed a normal 'Gompertz curve' in both Sweden and the UK.

    We're behaving irrationally ... and ill-informed voters are lapping it up.

    Only learned people with job security or safe pensions, like Profs. Ioainnides, Levitt, Spiegelhalter, Stadler, etc are saying anything radically different.
    The numerate ones?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,090

    DavidL said:

    Ferrier to face no police action for being stupid. It would be a dangerous precedent, in fairness.

    But a gym owner gets five armed police and a barrage of fines for simply trying to keep his head above water.
    Quite why they were armed is a mystery. A worrying, albeit tiny, step to American style militarisation.
  • Ursula Von der Leyen leaves EU summit to go into isolation as a member of her staff tested positive for covid
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    That's good. But still, I would wager, pondering the wisdom of your Leave vote in the face of warnings that Brexit would jeopardize the Union that I sense you are more attached to than most who voted Leave.
    It was a risk I considered and factored in. My analysis was that Scots weren’t that much less eurosceptic than the rest of the UK (as polling even now on the Euro shows) and my assumption was that a practical exit would be negotiated and implemented which could take the whole of the UK with it. This is a big reason why I supported May’s deal.

    The alternative to that was that the UK (as a whole) could never take a fundamental foreign policy decision that Scotland might disagree with because it would break the Union. If that was the case - that attachment to the EU was stronger than the UK - then the Union was already doomed in the medium-long term as it was too fragile to survive any serious disagreement.

    There’s the antithesis of this. Gibraltar, for instance, voted overwhelmingly to Remain but it’s sense of Britishness is so strong that it immediately accepted it and prepared for a full break. There is not the remotest of a hint that it might opt for, say, joint sovereignty with Spain as a solution to largely stay in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553



    He's does jealous he only has fake ones ;-)
    You should listen to what some Nobel laureates have to say about topics they're not expert on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,618
    Alistair said:

    Quite unbelievable news about the Trump townhall that NBC is going to show.

    At Trump's insistence it will be scheduled head to head with the Biden townhall.

    NBC are cretins.

    NBC get an exclusive on Trump while other broadcasters have to share Biden? Doesn't seem that cretinous...

    Whether it is a good idea for Trump presumably depends on whether Trump displaces more potential Biden viewers than the other way round,
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 1,338

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it


    You really think that politicians enjoy imposing lockdowns?
    Nicola loves it
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    K E I R


    K



    E



    I



    R


    Some PBers need to learn to spell. And the liquid lunch isn't even an excuse today Casino.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 15

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    The genie is out of the bottle, politicans have discovered the power to lock us all up, and cant resist using it

    By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
    Its all politics now. Tier 3 is basically the same as a "circuit breaker", but some are spinning we need 2 week "circuit breaker" rather than a month of Tier 3, and mayors refusing to accept Tier 3 restrictions while backing a circuit breaker.

    Then we have people spinning Tier 2 is a lockdown.

    We have Sturgeon who won't even accept Hands, Face, Space, instead insists on FACTS, which then has to be spelt out in detail what it actually means. And use a different app that can't track English using going to Scotland and vice versa.

    We have the Welsh saying the English mustn't come to Wales.
    We haven't said you can't come to Wales. We have said you can't come if you live in a pox-ridden region, unfortunately the number of those regions seems to be growing exponentially.
    And given we don't have the sort of number plate system that France has, is totally unenforceable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    As the Liberal Democrats have learned over the decades it is very difficult to get a word in edgeways once you fall out of second place in the electoral map. Politics is dull enough and most struggle to bear two politicians from opposing camps for long. This leaves very little room for third parties.

    When, as with SLAB, you have been the party of the Scottish establishment it is even more difficult because you tend not to have those quirky but potentially popular policies that the Lib Dems put up to get noticed. Scottish Labour has incredibly little to say about the future of the nation.

    On the odd occasion they do get coverage Mr Leonard does not inspire. Indeed, its not often clear what he is even talking about. It really doesn't help.

    I say this as someone who usually supports the Tories with no satisfaction whatsoever. Scottish Labour was the bulwark of the Union and it is sad to see it in this diminished state. The falling away of their power bases, not just in Holyrood but in local government, has left the field wide and open in large parts of Scotland where Tories don't have a ready audience or much chance of a hearing. Something needs to break in Scottish politics if the SNP hegemony is ever to end. It seems unlikely that Labour will be a major part of that restructuring.

    For fifty years after WWII Labour regarded it's Scottish constituencies as their fiefdoms. In fact I recall Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke when she was General Secretary of the Scottish Labour Party telling me you could get an ape elected in Dundee West as long as it has a red rosette.

    That was the story across the UK, not just Scotland, here in Wales seats at Westminster were lost both to Plaid and Conservatives over the years, some of which they got back, and some they lost again. Best not to mention the Red Wall in England.

    Only the Conservatives retain swathes of guaranteed safe mainland seats outside Scotland. North of the border the SNP are unassailable.
    There are a lot of very safe Labour seats in Cities. There's over 100 where they got more than 50% of the vote:
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html#:~:text=This page shows all the seats in England,,Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    DavidL said:

    Ferrier to face no police action for being stupid. It would be a dangerous precedent, in fairness.

    My view is that the treatment of her will encourage MPs to lie.

    She owned up to a mistake and profoundly apologised (yes, she was stupid and irresponsible etc) and got hauled over the coals and absolutely vilified for it anyway. To the max.

    Others in future will simply keep their mouths shut and take the risk of being found out. Because what else do they have to gain?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,890

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    I have something to say! About independence and Scottish Labour...

    Independence - 58% support, if it holds up, is getting into consensus territory. It isn't close, unlike the Brexit referendum, nor is it particularly "divisive" - the soundbite of Tory reaction. The discussion moves from the Whether to the How.

    I have issues with the wording of the other polling where 75% would vote Yes, leaving aside economic concerns. Nevertheless this does suggest Project Fear is baked into the 58% overall support figure. People may be over sanguine about the consequences of independence, but they are taking consequences as they perceive them into account.

    Scottish Labour - desperately need independence to go away as an issue. Based on polling that suggests independence actually happens.

    It is misleading, once Scottish voters are reminded that independence after the UK has left the single market and customs union and rejoining the EU means tariffs on all Scottish exports to England (where 70% of Scottish exports go) and likely the loss of sterling too they switch to 56% backing Remaining in the UK to only 44% wanting to Leave the UK and declare independence

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-most-scots-would-reject-independence-after-considering-issues-2976093
    The question is whether the 58% support for independence is really all there or whether it's still at 45-48% and the rest is "Boris is a twat" signalling that will go once someone like Kier is PM and does a new constitutional settlement and shows more respect for Scotland in the UK. The fundamentals on currency and Eurosceptic attitudes north of the border still show there is something to work with for 54-56% of Scots.

    I am not quite as depressed today as I was yesterday.
    K E I R


    K



    E



    I



    R


    Some PBers need to learn to spell. And the liquid lunch isn't even an excuse today Casino.
    Keir Ends In R as another pb-er (possibly Carlotta) helpfully pointed out.
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