I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
The ship named 'Economic Catastrophe' is already sailing and the wind is behind it.
Rocks and hard places spring to mind. It is bad if you look to the left or right.
This. The plague is real enough, and so are long term effects from it. The incoming economic devastation is very real too.
These are surely the effects of the the brutal propaganda the government has pumped into people
If you tell people a plague is serious, the will feel 'effects' from it. Of course they will. How could it be otherwise?
Nothing to do with the Gov't, personal anecdote from people I know that have had it.
It is undoubtedly very serious and can be so for anyone that gets it. The issue is the policy response to it. Calling it a "plague" is not helping, nor will it help when, finally, the government does want us to get back to Pret.
That's a bit unfair, @Contrarian set the style guide for the discussion !
I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
Tier 2 has been in place in the North East for a month.
I know I am a bore on this, but why the hell aren't a team from Dept of Health and SAGE in Sweden now asking for all the detail on how they are managing this? Because we aren't.
Why Sweden? That's a nice bit of cherry-picking by isam, but overall Sweden has done quite badly to date, with a high number of deaths per million. We'd do better looking at Norway, or Greece, or Australia, or Germany, or Japan, or Taiwan, or any number of other places for that matter.
Sweden with (when I last looked) the twelfth worst fatality rate in the world isn't an obvious role model for the UK (sixth worst at the time), when you have a couple of hundred other countries to choose from.
I don't think many countries have done everything right, and certainly not Sweden. I think they made the right decision on keeping universities closed. Also their furlough scheme was/is more sustainable than ours (but not necessarily better than Germany etc). They made the same mistake as us on care homes. I also think they made a mistake not locking down when it became apparent the epidemic was going out of control. Ultimately, a lot of people died in Sweden who would still be alive with better virus management, as is the case here.
I am going to make a call out for Rwanda's approach to the epidemic. Genuinely impressive for a not at all wealthy country, as evidenced by a very low death rate.
Yes, what Rwanda has achieved on a broad range of fronts is worthy of admiration, tempered only by the lack of political freedom they have imposed to get much of it done.
I was out there at the time they had decreed that, as from the start of the new school year, all lessons would be in English rather than the previous French. Which caused some predictable challenges and generated a few funny stories, but was driven through with their government's characteristic determination.
Rwanda is the original political dilemma of the benign dictatorship, which may be the best governmental system of all, save for the problem of ensuring political succession to another benign dictator.
What a fucking depressing sight. Millions of pounds of our money poured down the drain to build it, then billions of pounds of our money in accumulated time wasted in pointless red tape. Not to mention concreting over the garden of England.
Specimen day data has updated, it still looks like we're in a gradual levelling off.
It was the almighty forensic ones threat to lock us up via a Circuit Break that scared the disease back into it's box
If Corbyn or Boris had suggested it, Covid would have just laughed
Indeed. The London decision looks very short sighted, the doubling period is still getting longer. The government is going to destroy the London economy to make it look like they aren't targeting the north. Fucking bullshit.
Did we not lockdown the whole country to save London in March?
We locked down the whole country in March to "save" the whole country.
Indeed. What he meant to say was that we unlocked the whole country to save London
I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
Tier 2 has been in place in the North East for a month.
And GM for about 2. Keep saying it. Saves me from having to do it.
Sweden has done better - although it is worth noting that their approach has become more restrictive, rather than less.
It's also worth noting that the lower incidence in Sweden in the Autumn is probably also a little affected by timings: Danish schools went back on 12 August, while Sweden was the 19th. Universities also opened in late August in Denmark, against early September for Sweden. So, you probably want to lag the results by a week to see true comparisons.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
Tier 2 has been in place in the North East for a month.
And it shows in the case data. The rate of case growth has fallen, it may even be negative but we'll need to wait for tomorrow's data.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
Tier 2 has been in place in the North East for a month.
And it shows in the case data. The rate of case growth has fallen, it may even be negative but we'll need to wait for tomorrow's data.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
The tier system is a simplification and continuation of the patchwork of local lockdown restrictions that existed before. I wouldn't expect a major inflection point from that itself, but possibly from the earlier changes.
I would imagine Covid is playing its part. It's increasing rapidly again in the US and if I were a voter there I wouldn't want to risk having to go out unnecessarily, especially if I have to stand in line for a while.
I will be very pleasantly surprised if a mixture of tiers 1, 2 and 3 is sufficient to bring this under control, but that does look possible today. Here's hoping tomorrow doesn't shatter this optimism.
The effects of the Tier system will show up about 2 weeks after they are implemented - in terms of cases. Any change in cases today will have other causes.
Yes, this is now the local lockdown measures showing up in the parts of the country that have them and a slowing down of university infections IMO.
Why is this needed? Either the EU are going to cave, in which case we do not need these, or we will Walk and go WTO, in which case we will not need these. Hurrah for England!
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
I would imagine Covid is playing its part. It's increasing rapidly again in the US and if I were a voter there I wouldn't want to risk having to go out unnecessarily, especially if I have to stand in line for a while.
People seem to have decided standing in a voting line is worth the risk to get rid of Trump.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
What a fucking depressing sight. Millions of pounds of our money poured down the drain to build it, then billions of pounds of our money in accumulated time wasted in pointless red tape. Not to mention concreting over the garden of England.
Think of it as a Battle of Britain re-enactment project. Unfortunately the queuing HGVs full of rotting produce won't be The Few.
The ship named 'Economic Catastrophe' is already sailing and the wind is behind it.
Rocks and hard places spring to mind. It is bad if you look to the left or right.
This. The plague is real enough, and so are long term effects from it. The incoming economic devastation is very real too.
These are surely the effects of the the brutal propaganda the government has pumped into people
If you tell people a plague is serious, the will feel 'effects' from it. Of course they will. How could it be otherwise?
Nothing to do with the Gov't, personal anecdote from people I know that have had it.
And with respect there are plenty of people who will tell you there is something wrong with them physically when their main problem is mental.
Not every case of course, but consider how this government has frightened people with their disgusting propaganda.
The only thing that's affected his mental health is the effect the virus has had on his running 6 months on with reduced lung capacity and so forth.
Anyway a second person in our running club has it now, hopefully she'll fare better.
An uncle of by wife dies from COVID19. He wasn't especially old and quite fit. I think he must of forgotten or not been told it was all in his mind. He probably thought it was in his lungs.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
And why is the latter point needed? Because care homes are receiving orders to intake pox-ridden residents back from hospitals. Again. The very same strategy that killed them en masse last time.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
And why is the latter point needed? Because care homes are receiving orders to intake pox-ridden residents back from hospitals. Again. The very same strategy that killed them en masse last time.
Nightingale care centres for convalescing 'too fit to be in hospital, still Covid+ve' care residents should have been established.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/15/letter-to-washington-from-phoenix-429433 ...He shook his head. “There’s a lot of racism in Arizona, man. People have always been afraid of the government here. That’s why a lot of my Chicano friends never even bothered before,” Morales said. “But now, with Trump, it’s like they don’t give a shit anymore. I talk to all my Chicano friends, and they’re all registered, they’re all voting, they’re all voting against Trump. And the weird thing is, some of them even gave him credit for getting the economy going—which, I disagree with, but whatever—and it’s still not enough. They’re still voting his ass out.”...
With less than three weeks to go that's not actually that high. Some of the polls that have big Dem leads are predicated on enormous turnouts. 160/170m.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
Does he have any specific details on this? Specific targets that he could hold HMG to would be helpful, such as: - 100k tests results returned within 24 hours, 200k within 48 hours. - 80% of contacts of a positive case tested within 48 hours of positive test result. - 80% of people asked to isolate confirmed to be isolating.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
I would imagine Covid is playing its part. It's increasing rapidly again in the US and if I were a voter there I wouldn't want to risk having to go out unnecessarily, especially if I have to stand in line for a while.
People seem to have decided standing in a voting line is worth the risk to get rid of Trump.
With less than three weeks to go that's not actually that high. Some of the polls that have big Dem leads are predicated on enormous turnouts. 160/170m.
You can also get the same effect if GOP voters don't bother to turn out on the day.
Why is this needed? Either the EU are going to cave, in which case we do not need these, or we will Walk and go WTO, in which case we will not need these. Hurrah for England!
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
Brexit lorry success depends on UK firms stopping their export activity. Obviously government won't admit to that.
It's an equilibrium. If there are too many exports, lorries get stuck in one of these parks or are not allowed to proceed to Kent, they won't go at all. No-one will pay for that. You need to get exports down to a trickle and then you have a costly but manageable delay.
It also doesn't work as a poll as you can't know how people interpret "BOW" (which is pronounced differently depending on context). Presumably the intention is "BOW" as in "bow and curtsy" (given second option) but it could be read as in "bow and arrow".
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
Another cracking long read from Politico's Tim Alberta. A flavour: ...He shook his head. “There’s a lot of racism in Arizona, man. People have always been afraid of the government here. That’s why a lot of my Chicano friends never even bothered before,” Morales said. “But now, with Trump, it’s like they don’t give a shit anymore. I talk to all my Chicano friends, and they’re all registered, they’re all voting, they’re all voting against Trump. And the weird thing is, some of them even gave him credit for getting the economy going—which, I disagree with, but whatever—and it’s still not enough. They’re still voting his ass out.”...
If what I sense is about to happen does happen - the American people in very large numbers doing the above - it will be for me quite moving. It will be a great nation after a dreadful descent and loss of dignity saying, "No. Enough. We are better than this. We have some standards FFS."
Why is this needed? Either the EU are going to cave, in which case we do not need these, or we will Walk and go WTO, in which case we will not need these. Hurrah for England!
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
Brexit lorry success depends on UK firms stopping their export activity. Obviously government won't admit to that.
It's an equilibrium. If there are too many exports, lorries get stuck in one of these parks or are not allowed to proceed to Kent, they won't go at all. No-one will pay for that. You need to get exports down to a trickle and then you have a costly but manageable delay.
Of course "stop our exports" means "stop our imports" - its the same truck. Not that we will quickly run out of food, fuel, medicines etc as warned by the food, fuel and pharma industries - those people are clueless remoaners.
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
And why is the latter point needed? Because care homes are receiving orders to intake pox-ridden residents back from hospitals. Again. The very same strategy that killed them en masse last time.
Nightingale care centres for convalescing 'too fit to be in hospital, still Covid+ve' care residents should have been established.
With less than three weeks to go that's not actually that high. Some of the polls that have big Dem leads are predicated on enormous turnouts. 160/170m.
You can also get the same effect if GOP voters don't bother to turn out on the day.
If the new Arizona and Iowa polls are correct while Biden's vote now largely correlates with the Democratic vote, Trump is going to get a few points more than the GOP vote in some swing states and there will still be some Trump Democrats or Trump don't normally bother to vote voters who will vote Trump but not vote GOP, certainly at Senate level
Why is this needed? Either the EU are going to cave, in which case we do not need these, or we will Walk and go WTO, in which case we will not need these. Hurrah for England!
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
Brexit lorry success depends on UK firms stopping their export activity. Obviously government won't admit to that.
It's an equilibrium. If there are too many exports, lorries get stuck in one of these parks or are not allowed to proceed to Kent, they won't go at all. No-one will pay for that. You need to get exports down to a trickle and then you have a costly but manageable delay.
Of course "stop our exports" means "stop our imports" - its the same truck. Not that we will quickly run out of food, fuel, medicines etc as warned by the food, fuel and pharma industries - those people are clueless remoaners.
My son lives in Portsmouth, we were discussing the New Year's Day forward gridlock anticipated by the City Council. You know, the one where the M27 and the M3 become lorry parks. And he's nowhere near Kent!
Just think of the refugee camps that won't need to spring up at the border now. They'll all be at Larne or Belfast.
Edit: I Mean the folk presently at Calais.
You can see the protests in NI - "Stop foreign violent religiously inspired maniacs taking the jobs of our native nutters. It's the only industry we have."
Visually looks quite weather driven to me, despite the scientific view that climate has no impact on covid spread.
Is there really no link or is that we do not have enough data to scientifically prove the climatic link to the required level of confidence?
Not sure how that follows given Italy and Greece have a lower rate than France, Poland and we do and the Nordic countries have lower rates too
The low rates now are largely in the southern Mediterranean which is similar weather to the north European summer when we all got to low rates. Norway, Finland and the Baltics are very low population density.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
With less than three weeks to go that's not actually that high. Some of the polls that have big Dem leads are predicated on enormous turnouts. 160/170m.
You can also get the same effect if GOP voters don't bother to turn out on the day.
If the new Arizona and Iowa polls are correct while Biden's vote now largely correlates with the Democratic vote, Trump is going to get a few points more than the GOP vote in some swing states and there will still be some Trump Democrats or Trump don't normally bother to vote voters who will vote Trump but not vote GOP, certainly at Senate level
That’s quite the extrapolation from one poll in one state with an unpopular GOP candidate.
What will now happen is that - irrespective of what the Governor says - South Dakota will go into de facto lockdown. Stores will insist on masks. Bars and restaurants will empty.
I would imagine Covid is playing its part. It's increasing rapidly again in the US and if I were a voter there I wouldn't want to risk having to go out unnecessarily, especially if I have to stand in line for a while.
People seem to have decided standing in a voting line is worth the risk to get rid of Trump.
Lol. My old college sent me this year's matriculation photo today. In place of the fresh students arranged standing in rows, they are dotted about the college lawn all properly socially distanced, with the photo taken out of one of the first floor court windows. When they get old they'll have this as a reminder of what a strange year it has been.
I would imagine Covid is playing its part. It's increasing rapidly again in the US and if I were a voter there I wouldn't want to risk having to go out unnecessarily, especially if I have to stand in line for a while.
People seem to have decided standing in a voting line is worth the risk to get rid of Trump.
Lol. My old college sent me this year's matriculation photo today. In place of the fresh students arranged standing in rows, they are dotted about the college lawn all properly socially distanced, with the photo taken out of one of the first floor court windows. When they get old they'll have this as a reminder of what a strange year it has been.
Visually looks quite weather driven to me, despite the scientific view that climate has no impact on covid spread.
Is there really no link or is that we do not have enough data to scientifically prove the climatic link to the required level of confidence?
Weather driven based on people being driven inside maybe
Seems so. When I left northern Italy almost three weeks back, the streets and squares were all packed with people eating and drinking, and their virus stats put much of Europe to shame. Recently they've had a run of torrential rain (Nice in the south of France had a whole year's rain in just a single day recently) and I expect they're all inside the bars and restaurants now.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
My wife is involved with foster caring. It costs a fortune to foster children, sometimes in undesirable households. I made a suggestion that it would be cheaper to send the brightest most promising on burseries to Malvern College, Monmouth School, Marlborough and Clifton colleges etc. Maybe just 5% above current intake levels per school. The long term cost savings of the state not having to pay to look after damaged children throughout the course of their lives with benefits for them and their damaged offspring would be astronomical.
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
Kelly is a popular former astronaut married to a popular former Arizona politician (Gabrielle Giffords), running on a very moderate platform, against an unpopular incumbent who was rejected by the voters of Arizona two years ago.
Now, it may be that won't matter, and that whoever the Republicans put up in Arizona as a candidate would have lost... Nevertheless, McSally was a dreadful choice of candidate.
Interesting question: across the US, will Trump outperform or underperform Republican incumbents? (Bear in mind he underperformed by about 2% on average in 2016.)
A month ago, I assumed he'd do worse again. Now, I'm thinking he'll probably do better, largely on the back of half a dozen unpopular incumbents - McSally, McConnell, Ernst, Graham, etc
With less than three weeks to go that's not actually that high. Some of the polls that have big Dem leads are predicated on enormous turnouts. 160/170m.
You can also get the same effect if GOP voters don't bother to turn out on the day.
If the new Arizona and Iowa polls are correct while Biden's vote now largely correlates with the Democratic vote, Trump is going to get a few points more than the GOP vote in some swing states and there will still be some Trump Democrats or Trump don't normally bother to vote voters who will vote Trump but not vote GOP, certainly at Senate level
That’s quite the extrapolation from one poll in one state with an unpopular GOP candidate.
2 polls as Trump's share was also 5% higher than the GOP candidate's in Iowa
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate - Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs - Protect people living and working in care - Support children and young people - Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
-How? -With what money? -How? -How? -Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
- Sack Dildo and create a taskforce led by people who know what the fuck they are doing - With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade - Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes - Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner - Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
And DECIDE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE and STICK TO IT FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
By describing our Tier 2 Covid regime as "locking us all up" we create a problem for ourselves in describing something that locks us all up.
OK lets call it what it is.
The very worst of all possible worlds.
I try to make a point of agreeing with people I usually disagree with when they have made what I consider to be a very valid point (sort of like the rule in science and statistics to try to DISPROVE one’s favourite hypotheses and to look with suspicion on anything that smacks of wishful thinking).
I think it makes it more emphatic when it happens.
That’s why I’m posting a strong agreement with you here.
We’re looking at something that will be very costly economically to businesses with minimal or no support offered, and with questionable or minimal impact on the viral spread.
It’s bloody short-sighted (or simply blind) of the Government to do this without providing appropriate support.
Why is this needed? Either the EU are going to cave, in which case we do not need these, or we will Walk and go WTO, in which case we will not need these. Hurrah for England!
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
Brexit lorry success depends on UK firms stopping their export activity. Obviously government won't admit to that.
It's an equilibrium. If there are too many exports, lorries get stuck in one of these parks or are not allowed to proceed to Kent, they won't go at all. No-one will pay for that. You need to get exports down to a trickle and then you have a costly but manageable delay.
Of course "stop our exports" means "stop our imports" - its the same truck. Not that we will quickly run out of food, fuel, medicines etc as warned by the food, fuel and pharma industries - those people are clueless remoaners.
Deputy leader of Manchester actually saying the people will not comply with these restrictions
Encouraging law breaking is a disgrace
It has descending into tribal politics now. Dan Jarvis was the same yesterday when interviewed, government restrictions bad, terrible awful, will kill businesses, Starmer plan, mhhhh yes well, government restrictions bad.
Is it tribal or have Sir Graham Brady and William Wragg joined the Labour party?
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential backbench 1922 Committee and MP for Altrincham and Sale West, told the PA news agency: “The case has not been made for Greater Manchester to move into a Tier 3 ‘lockdown’.
“There is widespread concern amongst Members of Parliament, council leaders and the Mayor of Greater Manchester, all resisting the suggestion that Tier 3 should be introduced.”
Hazel Grove’s William Wragg said: “I have news from Greater Manchester where the impossible has been achieved.
“All of the Members of Parliament, the leaders of the councils and indeed the mayor, surprisingly, are in agreement with one another, the meeting we had earlier today was entirely pointless.
“I may as well have talked to a wall, quite frankly.”
Because Burnham does not like local lockdown he wants to damage the parts of the country where covid is a lesser threat
Sorry but that's ridiculous. Burnham represents his own area he doesn't represent the whole country.
A national lockdown, or a properly funded local one, would be best for his reason. He's right to call for it. If the rest of the country doesn't want a national lockdown then the logical decision is to pay properly for a localised one. Not try to get one on the cheap.
Nor indeed to attempt to have the Mayor "own it'. If HMG wants a Tier 3 in GM then they will have to impose it.
I'm amazed that they haven't compromised on the 80% furlough. Burnham called for that last week and he was right to do so, on Monday they could have compromised, Burnham and the other northern leaders could have claimed that as a victory earlier this week and everyone in the region could agree to move forward in Tier 3.
Considering the cost differential would be in the millions not the billions unlike most things Covid-related it seems an absolute no brainer.
It is absolutely immoral to tell people they're not allowed to work for a living and you're going to leave them out of pocket as a result - and you'll fine them if you find them working.
2/3 of minimum wage just is not acceptable. Amazingly HMG appears to have achieved consensus with all the GM politicians. They're all against them.
Across all parties indeed. It is just not OK by any stretch of the imaginaton.
Just goes to show again though I do not always back the government as I often get falsely accused of, let the record show I find this 66% suggestion insulting and am definitely calling for a u-turn.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
Slightly odd niche, because boarding is expensive, and it wouldn't help anyone to overload those schools with high social needs. I don't know how much use is made of them for social care.
Kelly is a popular former astronaut married to a popular former Arizona politician (Gabrielle Giffords), running on a very moderate platform, against an unpopular incumbent who was rejected by the voters of Arizona two years ago.
Now, it may be that won't matter, and that whoever the Republicans put up in Arizona as a candidate would have lost... Nevertheless, McSally was a dreadful choice of candidate.
Interesting question: across the US, will Trump outperform or underperform Republican incumbents? (Bear in mind he underperformed by about 2% on average in 2016.)
A month ago, I assumed he'd do worse again. Now, I'm thinking he'll probably do better, largely on the back of half a dozen unpopular incumbents - McSally, McConnell, Ernst, Graham, etc
Trump outperformed GOP Senate candidates in 2016 too, then the GOP got 42% in the Senate vote overall to the 46% Trump got
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
My wife is involved with foster caring. It costs a fortune to foster children, sometimes in undesirable households. I made a suggestion that it would be cheaper to send the brightest most promising on burseries to Malvern College, Monmouth School, Marlborough and Clifton colleges etc. Maybe just 5% above current intake levels per school. The long term cost savings of the state not having to pay to look after damaged children throughout the course of their lives with benefits for them and their damaged offspring would be astronomical.
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
The progressive lot hated the Assisted Places scheme and got it binned - the complaint was that it was being used by middle class people. But really it was the one-size-must-fit-all religion that was being offended.
Gary Neville should lead the re-structuring of football, talks a lot of sense about the industry, and his links from bankrupt Bury to Salford to Man Utd to the PFA give a great overview of all the stakeholders. Man Utd may not be producing a good team but with Neville and Rashford are leading the way in producing football-politicos.
I wonder whether there should be a pilot program - state boarding schools. I rather suspect that quite a few parents would jump at the chance to off load their children.
My wife is involved with foster caring. It costs a fortune to foster children, sometimes in undesirable households. I made a suggestion that it would be cheaper to send the brightest most promising on burseries to Malvern College, Monmouth School, Marlborough and Clifton colleges etc. Maybe just 5% above current intake levels per school. The long term cost savings of the state not having to pay to look after damaged children throughout the course of their lives with benefits for them and their damaged offspring would be astronomical.
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
The progressive lot hated the Assisted Places scheme and got it binned - the complaint was that it was being used by middle class people. But really it was the one-size-must-fit-all religion that was being offended.
Comments
Kids these days
Not every case of course, but consider how this government has frightened people with their disgusting propaganda.
I was out there at the time they had decreed that, as from the start of the new school year, all lessons would be in English rather than the previous French. Which caused some predictable challenges and generated a few funny stories, but was driven through with their government's characteristic determination.
Rwanda is the original political dilemma of the benign dictatorship, which may be the best governmental system of all, save for the problem of ensuring political succession to another benign dictator.
Keep saying it. Saves me from having to do it.
It's also worth noting that the lower incidence in Sweden in the Autumn is probably also a little affected by timings: Danish schools went back on 12 August, while Sweden was the 19th. Universities also opened in late August in Denmark, against early September for Sweden. So, you probably want to lag the results by a week to see true comparisons.
Anyway a second person in our running club has it now, hopefully she'll fare better.
In reality, the figure is probably much higher as many votes will still be being processed (and some will be in the actual post).
As an example until today Nebraska (small state - 5 ECVs) had reported zero votes. It has now just reported 217,000 - 25% of vote in 2016.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Yes yes I know, we can't make any changes at all from the status quo without the physical border infrastructure place (which it isn't), the customs and standards officials recruited and trained (they aren't), the computer system created, tested and integrated into haulier systems (it isn't).
Which is why we need these vast lorry parks. Because as I have been saying for ages, unless we utterly capitulate to the EU, on 1st January everything at the border grinds to a very rapid stop. Which the government know very well hence the need for moon-sized lorry parks like this. And those trucks packed for days in them won't be transporting our stuff abroad or importing their stuff to the UK. Which means we run out of stuff pretty bloody quickly.
"Not true" say the delusional and stupid. Really? So why are the government tarmacing over large chunks of Kent then...?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316759573710221317?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316729220903641094?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316728913662545921?s=20
- Fix Test, Trace and Isolate
- Extend furlough & self-employed support to save jobs
- Protect people living and working in care
- Support children and young people
- Establish a public inquiry into the handling of the crisis
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316729743308447746?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316728229068255232?s=20
-With what money?
-How?
-How?
-Fair.
1/5, as bad as people who don't isolate.
Ernst (R) 43% (+1)
Change from 30th September.
Voting intentions are as high (I think) as they've ever been recorded.
Democrat Senate candidates continue to raise scads of cash:
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/521165-kelly-raised-387-million-in-third-quarter
And the anedcdata is, mostly, positive.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/15/letter-to-washington-from-phoenix-429433
...He shook his head. “There’s a lot of racism in Arizona, man. People have always been afraid of the government here. That’s why a lot of my Chicano friends never even bothered before,” Morales said. “But now, with Trump, it’s like they don’t give a shit anymore. I talk to all my Chicano friends, and they’re all registered, they’re all voting, they’re all voting against Trump. And the weird thing is, some of them even gave him credit for getting the economy going—which, I disagree with, but whatever—and it’s still not enough. They’re still voting his ass out.”...
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1316754862005268482?s=20
- 100k tests results returned within 24 hours, 200k within 48 hours.
- 80% of contacts of a positive case tested within 48 hours of positive test result.
- 80% of people asked to isolate confirmed to be isolating.
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1316701926327812096
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1316772261605650432
How many days until the u-turn?
It's an equilibrium. If there are too many exports, lorries get stuck in one of these parks or are not allowed to proceed to Kent, they won't go at all. No-one will pay for that. You need to get exports down to a trickle and then you have a costly but manageable delay.
- With the money you won't instead be spending collapsing the economy and dealing with broken communities for the rest of the decade
- Stop sending pox patients from hospitals back to their care homes
- Ensure their parents avoid the scenario of not being able to put shoes on their feet as warned by the ex commissioner
- Learn the lessons from past mistakes to avoid repeating them again
Yes its a pandemic. Yes lots of it is very hard. But appointing your cronies to run test and trace and awarding vast PPE contracts to new companies set up by your mates and then bolloxing both up isn't hard, it should just be a "don't do that". The app that coding experts said wouldn't work that didn't work and they're still defending it. The cretinous adverts about "yes we will destroy our cultural heritage but hey you could get a job as a coder" (presumably fixing the app).
That stuff isn't very hard. Yet they fuck it up on a daily basis. And lie about it. And as they lie, people get ill. People lose their jobs. People die.
Edit: I Mean the folk presently at Calais.
This time there really is no money left.
Is there really no link or is that we do not have enough data to scientifically prove the climatic link to the required level of confidence?
Point two. True, but in for a penny in for a pound. Malnourished and dead children is not a good look for GE2024.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/south-dakota
They're also seeing a surge in hospitalisations (ICU capacity is apparently exhausted).
What will now happen is that - irrespective of what the Governor says - South Dakota will go into de facto lockdown. Stores will insist on masks. Bars and restaurants will empty.
And then cases will come down again...
One of our friends was outraged, because she couldn't afford to send her children to these establishments so she didn't see why poor people should get it for free.
Now, it may be that won't matter, and that whoever the Republicans put up in Arizona as a candidate would have lost... Nevertheless, McSally was a dreadful choice of candidate.
Interesting question: across the US, will Trump outperform or underperform Republican incumbents? (Bear in mind he underperformed by about 2% on average in 2016.)
A month ago, I assumed he'd do worse again. Now, I'm thinking he'll probably do better, largely on the back of half a dozen unpopular incumbents - McSally, McConnell, Ernst, Graham, etc
Rather than forever plucking one or two soldiers from the trenches here and sending them there, as if all the chopping and changing is going to achieve anything other than confirming to we troops that our generals DON'T HAVE A CLUE.
I think it makes it more emphatic when it happens.
That’s why I’m posting a strong agreement with you here.
We’re looking at something that will be very costly economically to businesses with minimal or no support offered, and with questionable or minimal impact on the viral spread.
It’s bloody short-sighted (or simply blind) of the Government to do this without providing appropriate support.
Just goes to show again though I do not always back the government as I often get falsely accused of, let the record show I find this 66% suggestion insulting and am definitely calling for a u-turn.
https://www.sbsa.org.uk/find_school.php
Slightly odd niche, because boarding is expensive, and it wouldn't help anyone to overload those schools with high social needs. I don't know how much use is made of them for social care.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_elections