The arguing over closing for 2 weeks, while we continue to import COVID is like trying to stick a finger in one hole of bucket of a holey bucket, while the hosepipe continue to fill it.
Just wait until the ski slopes are open...
Its madness....Boris should have said weeks ago, there will be no foreign holidays for the 6 months. Don't even think about booking Dubai for Christmas or Morzine in February.
And still not airport testing or proper quarantine. These are real actionable policies that would effect the new cases being imported.
I've always been angry about the open unmonitored airports situation during Covid but I am now beginning to become furious about it. Nothing about the British attitude to airports makes any sense whatsoever.
In brute political terms Starmer can't really lose with this call. If lots of deaths materialise, he'll be able to say that he warned the government and they did nothing, with appalling consequences. If we muddle through OK without the 'circuit breaker', no-one will remember that he called for it.
I don't think it's good that the major opposition party should attack governments on core policy in national crisis, which should be consensus. Fine to challenge on the detail. Truth is, Johnson is weak. He probably knows he should do as Starmer sets out and as other prime ministers of different political persuasions would have done in similar circumstances. Last night he was clearly in his comfort zone scoring points off Starmer. Much easier than facing down opposition in his own party.
Quite glad Sir Keir has come out with that. I think I have a 100% record of disagreeing with everything he has said and done since becoming Labour leader, and I am happy for it to stay that way
The arguing over closing for 2 weeks, while we continue to import COVID is like trying to stick a finger in one hole of bucket of a holey bucket, while the hosepipe continue to fill it.
Just wait until the ski slopes are open...
Sure I read somewhere that skiers are the absolute worst for covid unsafe practices.
It's hard to social distance from them in the street. They keep zig-zagging wildly.
At least it's easy to avoid the snowboarders as they just sit on their a**ses on the slopes all day.
Its also politically savvy from Starmer in the fact with a few exceptions the media are very pro lockdown harder with a vengeance, as it doesn't really effect them.
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, personally I am of the opinion that it is pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit. It might sound good, hey guys just just do another 2 weeks lockdown and everything will be better, but it won't be, in reality we would need to go again until after Christmas.
Every bump down the road ends up with us understanding the virus better (we now know about outdoor transmission being harder (albeit not impossible) and mask helping (and even possibly reducing viral loads for those who do get sick)), getting better treatments (survival rates are far higher), buying time to actually focus on fast ubiquitous tests to focus on high-dispersal events, and getting closer to a vaccine.
And, yes, there will be a vaccine. Ten in Phase 3; usually an 85% chance if your vaccine gets that far.
Andy, I think we have enough understanding now in how to break the transmission chain. I don't see what about 2-6 week lockdown will help us learn that we don't already know. The key is to get people who test positive to isolate properly, find everyone they've spent time with and get them to take a test and isolate them properly if they test positive as well. We already know these things and we can start doing this tomorrow, more time in lockdown, another million lost jobs and £100bn in borrowing won't teach us anything more that we don't know.
They is no chance of implementing a successful test, track and isolate system with the current number of cases. We need a lockdown first in order to reduce the number of cases to a level that is manageable with such a system. Obviously the time required for the lockdown to take effect would be well spent in developing the system!
And does he call for proper financial support for those businesses and workers affected by such a plan which will, undoubtedly, last longer than 2 - 3 weeks?
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, personally I am of the opinion that it is pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit. It might sound good, hey guys just just do another 2 weeks lockdown and everything will be better, but it won't be, in reality we would need to go again until after Christmas.
Every bump down the road ends up with us understanding the virus better (we now know about outdoor transmission being harder (albeit not impossible) and mask helping (and even possibly reducing viral loads for those who do get sick)), getting better treatments (survival rates are far higher), buying time to actually focus on fast ubiquitous tests to focus on high-dispersal events, and getting closer to a vaccine.
And, yes, there will be a vaccine. Ten in Phase 3; usually an 85% chance if your vaccine gets that far.
Andy, I think we have enough understanding now in how to break the transmission chain. I don't see what about 2-6 week lockdown will help us learn that we don't already know. The key is to get people who test positive to isolate properly, find everyone they've spent time with and get them to take a test and isolate them properly if they test positive as well. We already know these things and we can start doing this tomorrow, more time in lockdown, another million lost jobs and £100bn in borrowing won't teach us anything more that we don't know.
They is no chance of implementing a successful test, track and isolate system with the current number of cases. We need a lockdown first in order to reduce the number of cases to a level that is manageable with such a system. Obviously the time required for the lockdown to take effect would be well spent in developing the system!
Same was claimed about the NHS in March. Just a few weeks so the NHS will be able to cope. Not long.
Starmer is proposing to close all our local, businesses just as they are getting back on their feet
You are blowing hot and cold. When Johnson does close everything down next week you will be right behind it. You are trying to have your cake and eat it here.
Its also politically savvy from Starmer in the fact with a few exceptions the media are very pro lockdown harder with a vengeance, as it doesn't really effect them.
Media has been broadly hopeless, worst of the lot. "WHY WON'T YOU LOCK US DOWN MR JOHNSON" <-> "WHEN WILL THIS LOCKDOWN END".
They've been the equivalent of a toddler in the backseat of a car asking if we're nearly there yet.
The lockdown should be as long as necessary to get the cases down.
Yes, though probably politically impossible now. Our government has failed.
You mean until a vaccine. What's the point of getting the cases down when that has been done and now they are rising again.
You are arguing for a lockdown until a vaccine. Which is a reasonable position to take although I fear it will come at some awesome economic, social, political and psychological cost.
No, I am not arguing for a lockdown until a vaccine! That's the whole bloody point. I am arguing for a lockdown that is hard enough to reduce cases to a level at which they can be managed by an efficient testing, tracing and isolating system. Then the lockdown can be lifted, and we can live as freely as they do in countries like Taiwan and South Korea.
Which sounds prima facie sensible. Just as Brexit sounded like it would be fine to its adherents. But the reality has been and I see no reason to believe won't again be different.
We simply don't have an efficient testing, tracing and isolating system and I don't see one coming soon.
So we need to tell us how likely you think such a system is to come about and then base your answers about what the government action should be on that.
Starmer is proposing to close all our local businesses just as they are getting back on their feet
They'll die a lingering death anyway unless something is done to reduce the number of cases. Better a short(ish), sharp shock, which they might survive, than almost certain oblivion.
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, personally I am of the opinion that it is pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit. It might sound good, hey guys just just do another 2 weeks lockdown and everything will be better, but it won't be, in reality we would need to go again until after Christmas.
Every bump down the road ends up with us understanding the virus better (we now know about outdoor transmission being harder (albeit not impossible) and mask helping (and even possibly reducing viral loads for those who do get sick)), getting better treatments (survival rates are far higher), buying time to actually focus on fast ubiquitous tests to focus on high-dispersal events, and getting closer to a vaccine.
And, yes, there will be a vaccine. Ten in Phase 3; usually an 85% chance if your vaccine gets that far.
Andy, I think we have enough understanding now in how to break the transmission chain. I don't see what about 2-6 week lockdown will help us learn that we don't already know. The key is to get people who test positive to isolate properly, find everyone they've spent time with and get them to take a test and isolate them properly if they test positive as well. We already know these things and we can start doing this tomorrow, more time in lockdown, another million lost jobs and £100bn in borrowing won't teach us anything more that we don't know.
They is no chance of implementing a successful test, track and isolate system with the current number of cases. We need a lockdown first in order to reduce the number of cases to a level that is manageable with such a system. Obviously the time required for the lockdown to take effect would be well spent in developing the system!
Same was claimed about the NHS in March. Just a few weeks so the NHS will be able to cope. Not long.
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, personally I am of the opinion that it is pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit. It might sound good, hey guys just just do another 2 weeks lockdown and everything will be better, but it won't be, in reality we would need to go again until after Christmas.
Every bump down the road ends up with us understanding the virus better (we now know about outdoor transmission being harder (albeit not impossible) and mask helping (and even possibly reducing viral loads for those who do get sick)), getting better treatments (survival rates are far higher), buying time to actually focus on fast ubiquitous tests to focus on high-dispersal events, and getting closer to a vaccine.
And, yes, there will be a vaccine. Ten in Phase 3; usually an 85% chance if your vaccine gets that far.
Andy, I think we have enough understanding now in how to break the transmission chain. I don't see what about 2-6 week lockdown will help us learn that we don't already know. The key is to get people who test positive to isolate properly, find everyone they've spent time with and get them to take a test and isolate them properly if they test positive as well. We already know these things and we can start doing this tomorrow, more time in lockdown, another million lost jobs and £100bn in borrowing won't teach us anything more that we don't know.
They is no chance of implementing a successful test, track and isolate system with the current number of cases. We need a lockdown first in order to reduce the number of cases to a level that is manageable with such a system. Obviously the time required for the lockdown to take effect would be well spent in developing the system!
Let's deal with the reality of what we have, though. We had 4 months to build this and we didn't. What difference will another 2-6 weeks make? Clearly the government isn't interested in actually doing the hard work to build an effective tracking and isolation system and all of the plans should be made with that in mind.
"In the latest edition of Kekst CNC’s global opinion tracker, the gap between those wanting government to prioritise limiting the spread of the virus and those wanting government to prioritise protecting the economy has more than halved, from 61 points in April to 25 points today — with older people and Conservative voters swinging towards the economy. The same survey shows that concern about the impact of the virus on people’s health is still high, but is significantly lower than in April, with the percentage of those very concerned falling from 70 per cent then to 54 per cent now. And Ipsos-MORI shows a move away from stricter lockdown measures in the last month alone — from net +17 support for closing non-essential shops in September to -3 this month."
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, its pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit.
Two weeks is better than nothing - I would support longer personally.
I actually don't think it is. It kills business, and it gives the public false hope. The reality is if we go down the circuit breaker route, we will more than likely end up doing 2 weeks on, 2 week off for months.
I also wonder what the reaction would be at the end of two weeks where cases are still high. These measures take time to have an effect, which we saw back earlier in the year.
This is the other point, it is scientifically flawed experiment. In 2 weeks you will have no idea if it is worked or not, so then what do you do? Its like doing the vaccine trials and ending them after a couple of months because nobody has caught COVID in that timeframe.
To be a pedant, it's not a scientifically flawed experiment - the data on what a two week lockdown will achieve will be just as good in 2+x weeks if a lockdown runs for 2 weeks as if it runs for 2+x weeks where x is the lag before an assessment can be made. It may be flawed as a policy, which is your point, because if you want to do one lockdown until time T (whether that's after expected/hoped availability of a vaccine, after Christmas, whenever) then you need to see and judge the effectiveness before you know how long the lockdown needs to be. However, we have data from the spring lockdown and from other first and second lockdowns here and elsewhere which may enable effects to be estimated with a fair degree of confidence, main uncertainty probably being adherence to lockdown a second time compared to the first and - if the lockdown rules differed to the first - the effectiveness of different rules.
82% are failing to self-isolate and 89% are failing to ask for a test?
If I were peervreviewing, I'd be looking at the exact survey questions and seeing if non compliance has been miscorrelated or inferred from leading questions.
For instance, if I were asked if I'd had a cough this week, I'd say yes. It is not particularly new and it is nowhere near continuous. The COVID advice sets a highish bar for the type of cough that would warrant a test and I would not seek one until and unless I felt I met that bar. But if I subsequently developed a worse cough, maybe they could infer that I failed to order a test or isolate in those early stages of symptoms. (not feeling symptoms were severe enough was a quoted reason for failure). I would feel I had acted correctly in line with the guidance.
When there is high enough unemployment to ensure a Labour government with him as PM?
What a silly comment.
No, fact.
The more people are unemployed, the more people are claiming benefits and living in social housing and reliant on the state, the more people will be voting Labour and the more unpopular this Tory government will be
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, personally I am of the opinion that it is pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit. It might sound good, hey guys just just do another 2 weeks lockdown and everything will be better, but it won't be, in reality we would need to go again until after Christmas.
Every bump down the road ends up with us understanding the virus better (we now know about outdoor transmission being harder (albeit not impossible) and mask helping (and even possibly reducing viral loads for those who do get sick)), getting better treatments (survival rates are far higher), buying time to actually focus on fast ubiquitous tests to focus on high-dispersal events, and getting closer to a vaccine.
And, yes, there will be a vaccine. Ten in Phase 3; usually an 85% chance if your vaccine gets that far.
Andy, I think we have enough understanding now in how to break the transmission chain. I don't see what about 2-6 week lockdown will help us learn that we don't already know. The key is to get people who test positive to isolate properly, find everyone they've spent time with and get them to take a test and isolate them properly if they test positive as well. We already know these things and we can start doing this tomorrow, more time in lockdown, another million lost jobs and £100bn in borrowing won't teach us anything more that we don't know.
They is no chance of implementing a successful test, track and isolate system with the current number of cases. We need a lockdown first in order to reduce the number of cases to a level that is manageable with such a system. Obviously the time required for the lockdown to take effect would be well spent in developing the system!
Same was claimed about the NHS in March. Just a few weeks so the NHS will be able to cope. Not long.
And here we are.
That's because we failed to develop an effective test, trace and isolate system. So off we go again :-(
The arguing over closing for 2 weeks, while we continue to import COVID is like trying to stick a finger in one hole of bucket of a holey bucket, while the hosepipe continue to fill it.
Just wait until the ski slopes are open...
Its madness....Boris should have said weeks ago, there will be no foreign holidays for the 6 months. Don't even think about booking Dubai for Christmas or Morzine in February.
And still not airport testing or proper quarantine. These are real actionable policies that would effect the new cases being imported.
Thankfully Dubai is insisting on a (privately-arranged in the UK) negative test within 48 hours before travelling here, and you'll need to get another private negative test here the day before you fly back. The beach hotels are very well organised with reduced capacity and distancing, and any messing around will lead to you getting nicked. It's one place that's unlikely to be bringing a huge amount of C19 back to the UK.
The way the media were hyping this Starmer announcement up, it was like he was going to call for something truly radical. Instead he is clearly just going to attack the government and say we should follow SAGE.
No he's calling for a two week circuit breaker lockdown.
That's what I mean. SAGE proposed a 2 week circuit breaker, he is going to say we should do that. I presume he will also attack the government for sending kids back to uni, etc.
However, personally I am of the opinion that it is pie in the sky if you think 2 week lockdown will solve the problem, it just bumps it down the road a little bit. It might sound good, hey guys just just do another 2 weeks lockdown and everything will be better, but it won't be, in reality we would need to go again until after Christmas.
Every bump down the road ends up with us understanding the virus better (we now know about outdoor transmission being harder (albeit not impossible) and mask helping (and even possibly reducing viral loads for those who do get sick)), getting better treatments (survival rates are far higher), buying time to actually focus on fast ubiquitous tests to focus on high-dispersal events, and getting closer to a vaccine.
And, yes, there will be a vaccine. Ten in Phase 3; usually an 85% chance if your vaccine gets that far.
Andy, I think we have enough understanding now in how to break the transmission chain. I don't see what about 2-6 week lockdown will help us learn that we don't already know. The key is to get people who test positive to isolate properly, find everyone they've spent time with and get them to take a test and isolate them properly if they test positive as well. We already know these things and we can start doing this tomorrow, more time in lockdown, another million lost jobs and £100bn in borrowing won't teach us anything more that we don't know.
They is no chance of implementing a successful test, track and isolate system with the current number of cases. We need a lockdown first in order to reduce the number of cases to a level that is manageable with such a system. Obviously the time required for the lockdown to take effect would be well spent in developing the system!
Same was claimed about the NHS in March. Just a few weeks so the NHS will be able to cope. Not long.
The lockdown should be as long as necessary to get the cases down.
The problem is the strong possibility that more people will die in the long-term from the effects of the lockdown than from Covid-19 itself.
And the problem with that is, it assumes that utilitarianism is correct, and generally accepted, and that assumption is wrong. Say a Bad Man says: you must kill x, or I will kill x and also y and z. Which is it? (The Bad Man has form for this, you know he means it. If you decide to kill x it will be in circumstances where you know you are absolutely safe from arrest, trial or other adverse consequences). Do you kill x or not? There's lots of support for both views, but - here's the kicker - there's little doubt that many or most of the kill-x ers will decide when push comes to shove that they can't and won't do it after all. Same with covid. You might initially sell the public a limited let it rip, minimise overall damage from all causes approach, but with people actually dying of covid they will not buy "yes but it's ok for them to die because their actual death prevents two or more future hypothetical deaths." You will always end up in lockdown, no matter where you start.
The arguing over closing for 2 weeks, while we continue to import COVID is like trying to stick a finger in one hole of bucket of a holey bucket, while the hosepipe continue to fill it.
Just wait until the ski slopes are open...
Its madness....Boris should have said weeks ago, there will be no foreign holidays for the 6 months. Don't even think about booking Dubai for Christmas or Morzine in February.
And still not airport testing or proper quarantine. These are real actionable policies that would effect the new cases being imported.
I've always been angry about the open unmonitored airports situation during Covid but I am now beginning to become furious about it. Nothing about the British attitude to airports makes any sense whatsoever.
The only explanation is the huge amounts of money spent by the travel industry on newspaper advertising, and the consequent pressure applied by the media to keep overseas travel running.
So many holes in Starmer's idea he's getting ripped apart on Twitter. Although of course he can rely on Lewis Goodall for unwavering support! Why on earth would you lock down Devon and Cornwall when Manchester has 10 times the amount of cases? Completely anti-business and anti common sense.
Its smart politics from SKS. Or is it - we know Red Wall Lab > Tory switchers are still backing Shagger. I get that - when you make that kind of leap you might look like a bit of a fool to switch back straight away. Are Red wallers going to back SKS saying stay home - when in a lot of places it seems "normal" still? Or back Shagger still...?
Starmer is proposing to close all our local businesses just as they are getting back on their feet
They'll die a lingering death anyway unless something is done to reduce the number of cases. Better a short(ish), sharp shock, which they might survive, than almost certain oblivion.
It's a case of when you apply the brakes. It should have been done in August with a light touch. We didn't do that. So you can apply them now with jolt. Or else in a month's time we will jam them on just before we hit the brick wall.
But we will apply those brakes. There is absolute certainty on that.
In brute political terms Starmer can't really lose with this call. If lots of deaths materialise, he'll be able to say that he warned the government and they did nothing, with appalling consequences. If we muddle through OK without the 'circuit breaker', no-one will remember that he called for it.
I don't think it's good that the major opposition party should attack governments on core policy in national crisis, which should be consensus. Fine to challenge on the detail. Truth is, Johnson is weak. He probably knows he should do as Starmer sets out and as other prime ministers of different political persuasions would have done in similar circumstances. Last night he was clearly in his comfort zone scoring points off Starmer. Much easier than facing down opposition in his own party.
Also @FeersumEnjineeya I don't agree with the premise that we couldn't build a proper local isolation system at least. Local authorities could get a system of hotels and catering companies set up pretty quickly for hotel based isolation as they have across SE and East Asia. The issue is thay the government, NHS and PHE are absolutely 100% resistant to giving up centralised control on anything to do with the virus and a national hotel isolation system would take months to build.
Closing down the whole economy on the hope that in three weeks we will have curtailed the virus by 28 days is nonsense
100% wait for 3 weeks to become 6 weeks and then 3 months. I'm sure even Labour's most ardent supporters know this isn't a realistic solution. There's good reason other countries aren't pursuing this. It kills business and has the public frozen with fear.
So many holes in Starmer's idea he's getting ripped apart on Twitter. Although of course he can rely on Lewis Goodall for unwavering support! Why on earth would you lock down Devon and Cornwall when Manchester has 10 times the amount of cases? Completely anti-business and anti common sense.
Exhausting trying to keep up with which of Labour and the Tories are trying to look the least competent and confident in their convictions on what to do in the face of the second wave.....
We need to get Baron Clarke of Nottingham on the airwaves to talk some sense to everyone asap!!!
Its smart politics from SKS. Or is it - we know Red Wall Lab > Tory switchers are still backing Shagger. I get that - when you make that kind of leap you might look like a bit of a fool to switch back straight away. Are Red wallers going to back SKS saying stay home - when in a lot of places it seems "normal" still? Or back Shagger still...?
At least Starmer has committed one way or the other. I think it is fairly low risk, but you are right the Red Wall won't like it.
It does seem like the right thing to do politics aside.
Closing down the whole economy on the hope that in three weeks we will have curtailed the virus by 28 days is nonsense
100% wait for 3 weeks to become 6 weeks and then 3 months. I'm sure even Labour's most ardent supporters know this isn't a realistic solution. There's good reason other countries aren't pursuing this. It kills business and has the public frozen with fear.
... and it's never properly enforced so it doesn't work anyway.
Once SKS decides that his policy is opposition then the early stages are easy - given there are no good outcomes and SKS has no responsibility to shoulder he has an infinity of free hits.
In the longer run however it is a less cool scene. With Brexit to come if the opposition are simply seen as opportunist in a time of multi No Good Possible Outcomes his policy of qualified support so far may come to seem wise. Furthermore, he wants to present as a future real candidate for PM. We need to know where he stands when the bombardment starts.
Closing down the whole economy on the hope that in three weeks we will have curtailed the virus by 28 days is nonsense
100% wait for 3 weeks to become 6 weeks and then 3 months. I'm sure even Labour's most ardent supporters know this isn't a realistic solution. There's good reason other countries aren't pursuing this. It kills business and has the public frozen with fear.
... and it's never properly enforced so it doesn't work anyway.
Which is why 2 weeks becomes 6 weeks and then 3 months.
Its smart politics from SKS. Or is it - we know Red Wall Lab > Tory switchers are still backing Shagger. I get that - when you make that kind of leap you might look like a bit of a fool to switch back straight away. Are Red wallers going to back SKS saying stay home - when in a lot of places it seems "normal" still? Or back Shagger still...?
At least Starmer has committed one way or the other. I think it is fairly low risk, but you are right the Red Wall won't like it.
It does seem like the right thing to do politics aside.
The "red wall" is already in near lockdown. The change would be marginal.
So many holes in Starmer's idea he's getting ripped apart on Twitter. Although of course he can rely on Lewis Goodall for unwavering support! Why on earth would you lock down Devon and Cornwall when Manchester has 10 times the amount of cases? Completely anti-business and anti common sense.
Lefties want misery applied equally across the country. War on the undeserving content
Starmer's Covid tax on those who aren't affected by it
Interesting that the NAACP has a GOTV plan to raise black voter participation back up to near 2012 levels (66%) from the drop of (59%) in 2016. Even assuming that all of this rise in black votes goes to Biden, it's only about 0.5% impact on the headline figure for Biden, but - even discounting any other swings to Biden - in the Rust Belt and Florida, it would have made the difference in 2016.
So many holes in Starmer's idea he's getting ripped apart on Twitter. Although of course he can rely on Lewis Goodall for unwavering support! Why on earth would you lock down Devon and Cornwall when Manchester has 10 times the amount of cases? Completely anti-business and anti common sense.
Oh so Twitter is now correct again now it's anti-Starmer? You lot are utterly pathetic
Its smart politics from SKS. Or is it - we know Red Wall Lab > Tory switchers are still backing Shagger. I get that - when you make that kind of leap you might look like a bit of a fool to switch back straight away. Are Red wallers going to back SKS saying stay home - when in a lot of places it seems "normal" still? Or back Shagger still...?
At least Starmer has committed one way or the other. I think it is fairly low risk, but you are right the Red Wall won't like it.
It does seem like the right thing to do politics aside.
They'll come round to it when the hospitals are full of dying covid patients this Christmas. It'll be far too late then, of course.
If the advice from SAGE was to do a 2-3 week lockdown 3 weeks ago, then presumably having one now will at best return us to where we were 2-3 weeks ago. At which point SAGE advice will be to do a 2-3 week lockdown...
Its smart politics from SKS. Or is it - we know Red Wall Lab > Tory switchers are still backing Shagger. I get that - when you make that kind of leap you might look like a bit of a fool to switch back straight away. Are Red wallers going to back SKS saying stay home - when in a lot of places it seems "normal" still? Or back Shagger still...?
At least Starmer has committed one way or the other. I think it is fairly low risk, but you are right the Red Wall won't like it.
It does seem like the right thing to do politics aside.
They'll come round to it when the hospitals are full of dying covid patients this Christmas. It'll be far too late then, of course.
The hospitals are full of dying every Christmas. Its very sad, but it is also true.
And does he call for proper financial support for those businesses and workers affected by such a plan which will, undoubtedly, last longer than 2 - 3 weeks?
He would be a fool if he doesn't back it up with a robust support proposal.
"We now find ourselves occupying the worst of all worlds: a limbo where the pandemic drags on and causes more damage, leaving us hopeless and praying for a vaccine. The government’s policy of continuous local lockdowns will disrupt everyday lives and damage businesses, but it won’t suppress the virus. England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty conceded as much in a recent press briefing: in an extraordinary piece of political theatre, he followed the prime minister’s announcement of the three-tier system with a warning that these new measures won’t work."
Tories asked Starmer for a plan. He merely reiterated scientists recommendation.
Tories in meltdown 🤷♂️
Except SAGE is only viewing this from a health perspective. The government does have to consider the effect on the economy before coming to a decision.
Quite glad Sir Keir has come out with that. I think I have a 100% record of disagreeing with everything he has said and done since becoming Labour leader, and I am happy for it to stay that way
I am sure if he read the shit you write (which he won't) he would (assuming he even cared) be delighted with such a record.
In brute political terms Starmer can't really lose with this call. If lots of deaths materialise, he'll be able to say that he warned the government and they did nothing, with appalling consequences. If we muddle through OK without the 'circuit breaker', no-one will remember that he called for it.
I don't think it's good that the major opposition party should attack governments on core policy in national crisis, which should be consensus. Fine to challenge on the detail. Truth is, Johnson is weak. He probably knows he should do as Starmer sets out and as other prime ministers of different political persuasions would have done in similar circumstances. Last night he was clearly in his comfort zone scoring points off Starmer. Much easier than facing down opposition in his own party.
Circuit breaker or not IS detail.
I don't think so. Johnson isn't proposing a big enough intervention to prevent the epidemic going out of control. SAGE is warning him specifically of this. Starmer's intervention makes it less likely that Johnson will take the necessary steps, which is why I don't approve of it, even though Starmer appears to be correct on the facts and even though Johnson's weakness is his own fault. I am pretty sure Johnson knows what he needs to do, but doesn't have the will to do it.
Tories asked Starmer for a plan. He merely reiterated scientists recommendation.
Tories in meltdown 🤷♂️
Except SAGE is only viewing this from a health perspective. The government does have to consider the effect on the economy before coming to a decision.
Things are in a bad state. It’s clearly sadly an option that needs serious consideration.
Quite glad Sir Keir has come out with that. I think I have a 100% record of disagreeing with everything he has said and done since becoming Labour leader, and I am happy for it to stay that way
I am sure if he read the shit you write (which he won't) he would (assuming he even cared) be delighted with such a record.
Comments
Indeed Hancock was considering legislation to make having the vaccine compulsory for children who are attending school.
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/a-series-of-fortunate-events-with-sean-b-carroll-and-seth-macfarlane-tickets-124356283993?utm_campaign=b2b280a391-NAP_mail_new_2020_10_12&goal=0_96101de015-b2b280a391-103509793&utm_term=0_96101de015-b2b280a391-103509793&utm_source=NASEM+News+and+Publications&utm_medium=email&mc_eid=f7b85b4f9e&mc_cid=b2b280a391
Do the mayors of Liverpool and Manchester also agree with this policy?
I thought he looked in a hurry to move away from the microphones.
And here we are.
They've been the equivalent of a toddler in the backseat of a car asking if we're nearly there yet.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1315929897483853824
We simply don't have an efficient testing, tracing and isolating system and I don't see one coming soon.
So we need to tell us how likely you think such a system is to come about and then base your answers about what the government action should be on that.
What part of Government policy since has worked?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-britain-really-a-nation-of-lockdown-lovers-#
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.20191957v1
82% are failing to self-isolate and 89% are failing to ask for a test?
If I were peervreviewing, I'd be looking at the exact survey questions and seeing if non compliance has been miscorrelated or inferred from leading questions.
For instance, if I were asked if I'd had a cough this week, I'd say yes. It is not particularly new and it is nowhere near continuous. The COVID advice sets a highish bar for the type of cough that would warrant a test and I would not seek one until and unless I felt I met that bar. But if I subsequently developed a worse cough, maybe they could infer that I failed to order a test or isolate in those early stages of symptoms. (not feeling symptoms were severe enough was a quoted reason for failure). I would feel I had acted correctly in line with the guidance.
The more people are unemployed, the more people are claiming benefits and living in social housing and reliant on the state, the more people will be voting Labour and the more unpopular this Tory government will be
The European ski resorts, on the other hand...
This is NOT the X disease. The pandemic scientists really fear that kills a huge percentage. The IFR of covid is what 0.1 - 0.2%?
But we will apply those brakes. There is absolute certainty on that.
Johnson knows it.
The only thing that rattles me is that Johnson will go along with this lunacy.
We need to get Baron Clarke of Nottingham on the airwaves to talk some sense to everyone asap!!!
It does seem like the right thing to do politics aside.
In the longer run however it is a less cool scene. With Brexit to come if the opposition are simply seen as opportunist in a time of multi No Good Possible Outcomes his policy of qualified support so far may come to seem wise. Furthermore, he wants to present as a future real candidate for PM. We need to know where he stands when the bombardment starts.
The idea of a two week circuit breaker is a joke.
Starmer's Covid tax on those who aren't affected by it
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/10/12/black-voters-turn-out-fire-donald-trump-and-enablers-naacp-column/5960096002/
Just three questions and a quick getaway
Tories in meltdown 🤷♂️
I can see the GE posters already
"We now find ourselves occupying the worst of all worlds: a limbo where the pandemic drags on and causes more damage, leaving us hopeless and praying for a vaccine. The government’s policy of continuous local lockdowns will disrupt everyday lives and damage businesses, but it won’t suppress the virus. England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty conceded as much in a recent press briefing: in an extraordinary piece of political theatre, he followed the prime minister’s announcement of the three-tier system with a warning that these new measures won’t work."
WHO have said to all leaders to stop using lockdowns