This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems – politicalbetting.com

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1315985367967858688?s=20

You have to ask Robert Jenrick if you want to take a statue down? Sounds inefficient and authoritarian at the same time. And what an odd thing to highlight at this time. Surely Johnson & Cummings want the public to be focusing on the virus emergency not on statues.

Another oddity, I see this tweet is from Leave.EU and yet it appears to have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit. How does that work? Has Brexit become some sort of cypher for not wanting statues changed? Why would people who are passionate about us regaining our sovereignty as an independent island nation feel protective about statues?

Strange times, they really are.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1315985367967858688?s=20

If I were a Labour voting Brexiteer I would now be conflicted HY.

Would being a member of Leave.EU mean one can no longer support the Labour Party.

Is Leave.EU really a membership organisation anyway? I thought it was just a campaign group funded largely by Arron Banks and other individuals who have entirely earned the money they donate and have no links to Russia whatsoever - they are so unrelated to Russia, in fact, that I don't even know why I mentioned it as it simply isn't an issue at all and I doubt they could point to the Kremlin on a map.

They don't need to point the Kremlin out on a map, because Putin provides a chauffeur driven Mercedes from the airport.

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is the problem with having different rules in different areas...all of a sudden everybody is an expert in transmission and it is never their venue.

Gym chain Pure Gym has said it is considering legal action over the British government's decision to close gyms and fitness centres in the Liverpool area as part of the city being placed in the "very high" level of risk.

Humphrey Cobbold, chief executive of the company, said the group was "extremely disappointed" about the move, which will force it to close seven sites in the Liverpool City Region. He said there was "no evidence of Covid-19 transmission in gyms" and called on the government to publish the data on it.

People not exercising, and therefore getting fat, is going to be another Covid worry. It's easy to lose weight/keep trim in the summer - it's just dawned on me as the rain pours how often I run inside on the treadmill down the gym during the winter

I am currently pondering to go or not on one of my usual three cycles per day from indoors looking at the steady rain.

This is going to be a world away from Lockdown 1.0. Then it was glorious weather and people could exercise often (apart from in Wales) and did. I certainly did.

I had the same realisation as you did just now that things are going to get bad and sad and the country will suffer. As much as Covid? Who knows.

Lance used to love the rain. If it was raining he knew that 80% of the peleton would have mentally given up before they got to the départ réel.

Get out and ride. And always wax the chain on your wet weather bike.

I was an all weather and I mean all weather Boris bike commuter sheet rain, soaked through the waterproofs if those were the conditions. I went to and from the office and I would have gone in any weather than take the tube.

But this is me not having to go anywhere so it is voluntary and hence so much more difficult.

But thanks v much for your words of encouragement which I will heed (managed to get out between this and my last post so it's already working)!

O/t but this has appeared on the Guardian site 'Oslo police seize tuned electric scooter with top speed of 36mph'
One wonders, to some extent, how they managed to catch it!

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/13/scotland-new-currency-independence-sterling-euro

A new currency before joining the Euro? Simple - Pound Scots. Like all of the other issues of the pound externally to the UK it would be bound 1:1 to Sterling for the period needed to transition into the Euro. Not that big a deal. How does it work in a small poor country I hear the usual suspects sneer? Ask the Irish, worked for them.

More complicated than that. The Irish pound became free-floating as a condition of joining the European exchange rate mechanism, so it was worth quite a bit less than GBP by the time it was replaced with Euros. I assume similar would apply to a Scots Pound - and it's considerably harder to peg a currency today then it was in the 1950s, anyway.

One amusing twist in the tale is that the weakness of Sterling in recent years means that an Irish Pound would now be worth more than a British one.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_pound

OldKingCole said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Anabobazina said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Feel a bit sad about the Daily Express. It was the family paper when I was a kid. Had some very good writers, got the basic news across well, was literate and coherent, circulation about 5 million. It's a pathetic rag now. It's even stretching a point to call it a newspaper. Circulation is about 300,000 and you wonder how money of them are really readers. I only ever see it left on the counter at my local cafe.

I was doing up the spare room a few months back, which involved clearing some rubble from an old fireplace that had at some point in my house's life been turned into a small cupboard.

Inside was a copy of the Daily Express from the 1950s, which the bloke doing the original work had used to block up the soot.

I found far more insight on the world's key issues in that edition than in a copy of the same paper that I found on the train last week.

Giles. Beachcomber.

I don't get this – I even googled it and still don't get it!

Beachcomber was a genuinely funny comic writer/satirist. Wasn't Mr Justice Cocklecarrot one of his?. Even as a youth I was amused, and I think, educated.

J B Morton seems to have been in post for about half a century, so it's little surprise that towards the end he became something of an anachronism.

But anyone who could leave dozens of empty bottles of brown ale on Virginia Woolf's doorstep as a prank has a genuine sense of humour.

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is the problem with having different rules in different areas...all of a sudden everybody is an expert in transmission and it is never their venue.

Gym chain Pure Gym has said it is considering legal action over the British government's decision to close gyms and fitness centres in the Liverpool area as part of the city being placed in the "very high" level of risk.

Humphrey Cobbold, chief executive of the company, said the group was "extremely disappointed" about the move, which will force it to close seven sites in the Liverpool City Region. He said there was "no evidence of Covid-19 transmission in gyms" and called on the government to publish the data on it.

People not exercising, and therefore getting fat, is going to be another Covid worry. It's easy to lose weight/keep trim in the summer - it's just dawned on me as the rain pours how often I run inside on the treadmill down the gym during the winter

I am currently pondering to go or not on one of my usual three cycles per day from indoors looking at the steady rain.

This is going to be a world away from Lockdown 1.0. Then it was glorious weather and people could exercise often (apart from in Wales) and did. I certainly did.

I had the same realisation as you did just now that things are going to get bad and sad and the country will suffer. As much as Covid? Who knows.

Lance used to love the rain. If it was raining he knew that 80% of the peleton would have mentally given up before they got to the départ réel.

Get out and ride. And always wax the chain on your wet weather bike.

Yes, but he did have certain pharmaceutical advantages.

All GC contenders dope. Lance was just more organised and was a hyper responder to oxygen vector doping.

Indeed, but I remain concern for TOPPING.

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is the problem with having different rules in different areas...all of a sudden everybody is an expert in transmission and it is never their venue.

Gym chain Pure Gym has said it is considering legal action over the British government's decision to close gyms and fitness centres in the Liverpool area as part of the city being placed in the "very high" level of risk.

Humphrey Cobbold, chief executive of the company, said the group was "extremely disappointed" about the move, which will force it to close seven sites in the Liverpool City Region. He said there was "no evidence of Covid-19 transmission in gyms" and called on the government to publish the data on it.

People not exercising, and therefore getting fat, is going to be another Covid worry. It's easy to lose weight/keep trim in the summer - it's just dawned on me as the rain pours how often I run inside on the treadmill down the gym during the winter

I am currently pondering to go or not on one of my usual three cycles per day from indoors looking at the steady rain.

This is going to be a world away from Lockdown 1.0. Then it was glorious weather and people could exercise often (apart from in Wales) and did. I certainly did.

I had the same realisation as you did just now that things are going to get bad and sad and the country will suffer. As much as Covid? Who knows.

Lance used to love the rain. If it was raining he knew that 80% of the peleton would have mentally given up before they got to the départ réel.

Get out and ride. And always wax the chain on your wet weather bike.

Yes, but he did have certain pharmaceutical advantages.

All GC contenders dope. Lance was just more organised and was a hyper responder to oxygen vector doping.

Indeed, but I remain concern for TOPPING.

Survived just now.

Clean.

OldKingCole said:

Anabobazina said:

algarkirk said:

Anabobazina said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Feel a bit sad about the Daily Express. It was the family paper when I was a kid. Had some very good writers, got the basic news across well, was literate and coherent, circulation about 5 million. It's a pathetic rag now. It's even stretching a point to call it a newspaper. Circulation is about 300,000 and you wonder how money of them are really readers. I only ever see it left on the counter at my local cafe.

I was doing up the spare room a few months back, which involved clearing some rubble from an old fireplace that had at some point in my house's life been turned into a small cupboard.

Inside was a copy of the Daily Express from the 1950s, which the bloke doing the original work had used to block up the soot.

I found far more insight on the world's key issues in that edition than in a copy of the same paper that I found on the train last week.

Giles. Beachcomber.

I don't get this – I even googled it and still don't get it!

Beachcomber was a genuinely funny comic writer/satirist. Wasn't Mr Justice Cocklecarrot one of his?. Even as a youth I was amused, and I think, educated.

Yes, and the ineffable Dr Strabismus (whom God preserve) of Utrecht.

Beachcomber was a brilliant writer with a unique style - witty, ironic, mildly satirical and unfailingly original.

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

I think the winner of that contest is bound to be The Grim Reaper.

Alistair said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Nigelb said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Anabobazina

Thanks Bob. Pretty mixed bag! South Carolina and Ohio are pretty good for The Orange One. Ariz/Min/Mich/Georgia are all pretty much washes in States unlikely to play a crucial role. Colorado/NC/Penn/Wisc are all bad for him, and Florida is a shocker.

I may have to revise my opinion of The Sunshine State as a likely ray of sunlight for him. Perhaps the locals are upset with him orginising a superspreader event in their parish.

Florida is interesting, as it is one of the states which seems to manage its count quite rapidly, so unless there is a Bush/Gore style squeaker, it ought to declare on election night.
MN and NC are other fast counting states.

PN, WI, MI will all take a while.

(Might be worth making a note of these things if one is going to be punting though election night itself.)

Texans could do us all a favor and vote for Biden. We could all go to bed early then.

If Texas goes blue then surely in play betting opportunities open up all over the board.

For you, maybe. I'm about maxed out. Just waiting now for the blue wave to carry me to nirvana.

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

If, as expected, Biden and the Dems clean up, it'll be interesting to see how things change in the states. Will the Dems try to shutdown the country to slow the spread of the virus?

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

Is that another nickname being floated? Lockdown Joe?

tlg86 said:

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

If, as expected, Biden and the Dems clean up, it'll be interesting to see how things change in the states. Will the Dems try to shutdown the country to slow the spread of the virus?

Almost certainly yes I would have thought. This is starting to become a left/right issue in a way it really wasn't even a month ago.

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/HayesBrown/status/1315834067003342850?s=19
If, as people have suggested, I was betting with my heart over my head every single penny I had would be staked on Graham losing.

If it helps, I do actually think he'll lose although I haven't a penny on that one.

kinabalu said:

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

Is that another nickname being floated? Lockdown Joe?

Absolutely not. I used it for brevity's sake. But I think Biden has said he's ready for renewed restrictions I think? dunno about Kamala.

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1315985367967858688?s=20

Damn, that’s an annoying one for someone who doesn’t want to see statues torn down by a mob, but also believes that all government decisions should be made as locally as possible.

If, as @Nigelb has suggested, statue removal/preservation can be linked to donations then maybe those decisions (and donations) can be made locally over dinner at a venue close to the statue under discussion?

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1315985367967858688?s=20

You have to ask Robert Jenrick if you want to take a statue down? Sounds inefficient and authoritarian at the same time. And what an odd thing to highlight at this time. Surely Johnson & Cummings want the public to be focusing on the virus emergency not on statues.

Another oddity, I see this tweet is from Leave.EU and yet it appears to have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit. How does that work? Has Brexit become some sort of cypher for not wanting statues changed? Why would people who are passionate about us regaining our sovereignty as an independent island nation feel protective about statues?

Strange times, they really are.

Leave.EU is keen to stoke the fires of culture wars in the UK.

Some people with suspicious minds would think, "That's funny - it doesn't seem to be in the UK's interests at all and is more the sort of thing Putin would want." But actually, Leave.EU has no Russian links, and they are acting in what they genuinely see to be the UK's best interests for reasons too complex to explain here.

Mmm. Well I suppose at heart it is a hankering for what Britain once was and can be again - if free of diktat from Brussels. But Brussels has never, as far as I can recall, interfered with our statues. Our statutes, yes, but not our statues. Odd one.

Selebian said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1315985367967858688?s=20

Damn, that’s an annoying one for someone who doesn’t want to see statues torn down by a mob, but also believes that all government decisions should be made as locally as possible.

If, as @Nigelb has suggested, statue removal/preservation can be linked to donations then maybe those decisions (and donations) can be made locally over dinner at a venue close to the statue under discussion?

But would that be mingling ?

IanB2 said:

CNN: There was a time when Boris Johnson claimed his government was following the science at every step of its plan for dealing with the coronavirus.

But as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK soars once more, and the country braces for a long, miserable winter, the British Prime Minister appears to be at odds with those same advisers he once placed front and center of the pandemic response.

His Chief Medical Officer on Monday night poured a bucket of very cold water over his latest plans to tackle a worrying upturn in the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. And On Tuesday he was facing further criticism after it emerged that his group of top scientific advisers recommended three weeks ago a significantly tougher package of measures than even he now plans.

Johnson, it seems, is trapped by his bitterly divided Conservative Party -- faced down by the hawks, such as his finance minister Rishi Sunak, who want to keep the economy as open as possible and doves, who think tough measures now would be better in the longer run.

All of these arguments between politics and science will -- eventually -- become known to the public when the UK's coronavirus response is scrutinized at the inevitable public inquiry, at some point in the future.

And however much merit protecting the economy might have in the long run, creating a perception that you are ignoring scientific advice could be dangerous, should the virus run riot and the UK's already massive death toll rise still further.

I am not at all sure that there will be a public inquiry. I suspect that this will treated very much like a war, and I do not recall a public inquiry into any such. There were Inquiries into aspects of the Iraq War, admittedly, and a partially at least private Privy Council one into the events leading up to the Falklands, There certainly wasn't an Inquiry after the Suez Affair.

I wonder what would be embarrassing; being seen with an Express under your arm or being seen with Asian Babes?

TOPPING said:

btw does anyone pass any time very enjoyably watching the current Tatts October Yearling sales? The auctioneers make it an art and compulsive viewing.

Edit: http://db.tattersalls.com:8080/4DCGI/Sale/Live?site=NMT

Always wanted to go to one of those. Will do one day.

And if the Joe landslide comes in I'll be buying.

Peter_the_Punter said:

contrarian said:

tlg86 said:

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

If, as expected, Biden and the Dems clean up, it'll be interesting to see how things change in the states. Will the Dems try to shutdown the country to slow the spread of the virus?

Almost certainly yes I would have thought. This is starting to become a left/right issue in a way it really wasn't even a month ago.

Depends where the virus has got to in the US. It's back on an upward trajectory and there's time for a considerable increase before its friend leaves the White House. There is a very good chance that by then Shutdown will be the only feasible policy. It may even be welcomed by the populace.

It will depend however on how bad it has got.

Just flicking through the Worldometer data and it appears to be trundling along at the moment. I'm not sure it is a left/right issue, but given the amount of focus it has received from the Dems makes me think that they have no choice but to try to do something to slow it down considerably.

Plenty of people want to go to NFL matches, and I doubt they're all Trump fans. Similarly, I doubt all those at the Palladium last night are Boris fans. I think there's a big divide between what people tell the pollsters and what they really think, so it'll be interesting to see how America reacts if the Dems try to lockdown the country.

Nigelb said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/HayesBrown/status/1315834067003342850?s=19
If, as people have suggested, I was betting with my heart over my head every single penny I had would be staked on Graham losing.

Perhaps foolishly, I have indeed bet on the whiny f*ck losing.

My delight at you winning your highly unwise bet would be unbounded.

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

Nigelb said:

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is the problem with having different rules in different areas...all of a sudden everybody is an expert in transmission and it is never their venue.

Gym chain Pure Gym has said it is considering legal action over the British government's decision to close gyms and fitness centres in the Liverpool area as part of the city being placed in the "very high" level of risk.

Humphrey Cobbold, chief executive of the company, said the group was "extremely disappointed" about the move, which will force it to close seven sites in the Liverpool City Region. He said there was "no evidence of Covid-19 transmission in gyms" and called on the government to publish the data on it.

People not exercising, and therefore getting fat, is going to be another Covid worry. It's easy to lose weight/keep trim in the summer - it's just dawned on me as the rain pours how often I run inside on the treadmill down the gym during the winter

I am currently pondering to go or not on one of my usual three cycles per day from indoors looking at the steady rain.

This is going to be a world away from Lockdown 1.0. Then it was glorious weather and people could exercise often (apart from in Wales) and did. I certainly did.

I had the same realisation as you did just now that things are going to get bad and sad and the country will suffer. As much as Covid? Who knows.

Lance used to love the rain. If it was raining he knew that 80% of the peleton would have mentally given up before they got to the départ réel.

Get out and ride. And always wax the chain on your wet weather bike.

Yes, but he did have certain pharmaceutical advantages.

All GC contenders dope. Lance was just more organised and was a hyper responder to oxygen vector doping.

Indeed, but I remain concern for TOPPING.

Topping surely not a doper. Never even been tested and that's because there's absolutely no need.

I wasn't suggesting any such thing; quite the opposite.
I feared @Dura_Ace 's siren words might lead him astray.

Peter_the_Punter said:

contrarian said:

Boris has definitely drifted away from SAGE.

There does seem to be a political gap opening between the lockdown left and the new 'balanced' Tory approach.

Interesting to see how this plays out in America soon, where the gap between the two parties is much wider.

Lockdown Joe vs let it rip Trump

I think the winner of that contest is bound to be The Grim Reaper.

Indeed. Permanent on/off lockdown and let-it-rip are both killers, economically as well as literally. The obvious solution is a short, hard lockdown to reduce cases to a manageable level, followed by the use of a proper system for testing, tracing and isolating. We know it works - we've seen it done in the Far East.

Unfortunately, the political capital needed to implement the necessary lockdown has been frittered away, and we seem to be incapable of implementing an efficient test, trace and isolate system. So it looks like we're screwed :-(

Roger said:

I wonder what would be embarrassing; being seen with an Express under your arm or being seen with Asian Babes?

Paper porn? Oh, the humiliation.

I'm tempted to buy a copy, rip it up and spread it round the hedgerows of my neighbourhood out of sheer nostalgia.

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: There was a time when Boris Johnson claimed his government was following the science at every step of its plan for dealing with the coronavirus.

But as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK soars once more, and the country braces for a long, miserable winter, the British Prime Minister appears to be at odds with those same advisers he once placed front and center of the pandemic response.

His Chief Medical Officer on Monday night poured a bucket of very cold water over his latest plans to tackle a worrying upturn in the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. And On Tuesday he was facing further criticism after it emerged that his group of top scientific advisers recommended three weeks ago a significantly tougher package of measures than even he now plans.

Johnson, it seems, is trapped by his bitterly divided Conservative Party -- faced down by the hawks, such as his finance minister Rishi Sunak, who want to keep the economy as open as possible and doves, who think tough measures now would be better in the longer run.

All of these arguments between politics and science will -- eventually -- become known to the public when the UK's coronavirus response is scrutinized at the inevitable public inquiry, at some point in the future.

And however much merit protecting the economy might have in the long run, creating a perception that you are ignoring scientific advice could be dangerous, should the virus run riot and the UK's already massive death toll rise still further.

I am not at all sure that there will be a public inquiry. I suspect that this will treated very much like a war, and I do not recall a public inquiry into any such. There were Inquiries into aspects of the Iraq War, admittedly, and a partially at least privater Privy Council one into the events leading up to the Falklands, There certainly wasn't an Inquiry after the Suez Affair.

There is absolutely no god given reason why scientific advise about public health issues arising specifically from one virus should automatically outweigh all other medical, economic, social and value considerations. And it is not the job of the scientists but of the government and parliament to find what balance is most appropriate for our society at this time between all those - and other legitimate - considerations.

Given that there is massive disagreement within society generally - with or without a pandemic - on all those other considerations, it would be gobsmacking if there were not major disagreements with the government's decisions (whoever that government might be, not just Johnson's government) on what that balance should be. And given that there is no one right answer to what that balance should be, most members of society will have a different balance that, based on their individual values for each of those considerations, would be better than the one chosen by the government.

Could the government be doing better? Nearly every voter, including Tories, will find a way to say yes to that question. Does that warrant an Inquiry? Not unless there is suspicion of anything criminal going on - particularly as decision-making seems to be happening in a pretty public (and messy) way. So what would a public inquiry achieve? Nothing more than is in current newspaper headlines - there are a lot of pissed off people.

The longer this pandemic goes on, the more and more convinced I am that "successful" management of the outbreak is correlated mostly to national culture, and almost nothing to do with the actual interventions of the respective governments. Those cultures with a combination of strong social commitment and individual discipline, such as the Far East and Nordic Countries, are faring relatively well, those with strong individualism and scepticism of authority (such as the US and UK) are faring relatively less well. The rest, once we get past the incredibly simple oral and hand hygiene and social distancing, is for the birds.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316021755316563968?s=20

Pulpstar said:

Trump leading within the margin of error in the key swing state of Pennsylvania as some might say...
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316017992229036033

That's:
Biden (-1%)
Trump (-1%)

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/ZoraSuleman/status/1316021401908776960

Will the last remaining footballers without COVID please report to the front desk so we can complete the special COVID Panini sticker book.

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: There was a time when Boris Johnson claimed his government was following the science at every step of its plan for dealing with the coronavirus.

But as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK soars once more, and the country braces for a long, miserable winter, the British Prime Minister appears to be at odds with those same advisers he once placed front and center of the pandemic response.

His Chief Medical Officer on Monday night poured a bucket of very cold water over his latest plans to tackle a worrying upturn in the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. And On Tuesday he was facing further criticism after it emerged that his group of top scientific advisers recommended three weeks ago a significantly tougher package of measures than even he now plans.

Johnson, it seems, is trapped by his bitterly divided Conservative Party -- faced down by the hawks, such as his finance minister Rishi Sunak, who want to keep the economy as open as possible and doves, who think tough measures now would be better in the longer run.

All of these arguments between politics and science will -- eventually -- become known to the public when the UK's coronavirus response is scrutinized at the inevitable public inquiry, at some point in the future.

And however much merit protecting the economy might have in the long run, creating a perception that you are ignoring scientific advice could be dangerous, should the virus run riot and the UK's already massive death toll rise still further.

I am not at all sure that there will be a public inquiry. I suspect that this will treated very much like a war, and I do not recall a public inquiry into any such. There were Inquiries into aspects of the Iraq War, admittedly, and a partially at least private Privy Council one into the events leading up to the Falklands, There certainly wasn't an Inquiry after the Suez Affair.

I know it’s only the word of a clown, but the PM has committed to an independent public inquiry.

https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1316022184062509058?s=20

That's WPA Intelligence's first poll of Nevada this cycle as far as I can see.

TimT said:

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: There was a time when Boris Johnson claimed his government was following the science at every step of its plan for dealing with the coronavirus.

But as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK soars once more, and the country braces for a long, miserable winter, the British Prime Minister appears to be at odds with those same advisers he once placed front and center of the pandemic response.

His Chief Medical Officer on Monday night poured a bucket of very cold water over his latest plans to tackle a worrying upturn in the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. And On Tuesday he was facing further criticism after it emerged that his group of top scientific advisers recommended three weeks ago a significantly tougher package of measures than even he now plans.

Johnson, it seems, is trapped by his bitterly divided Conservative Party -- faced down by the hawks, such as his finance minister Rishi Sunak, who want to keep the economy as open as possible and doves, who think tough measures now would be better in the longer run.

All of these arguments between politics and science will -- eventually -- become known to the public when the UK's coronavirus response is scrutinized at the inevitable public inquiry, at some point in the future.

And however much merit protecting the economy might have in the long run, creating a perception that you are ignoring scientific advice could be dangerous, should the virus run riot and the UK's already massive death toll rise still further.

I am not at all sure that there will be a public inquiry. I suspect that this will treated very much like a war, and I do not recall a public inquiry into any such. There were Inquiries into aspects of the Iraq War, admittedly, and a partially at least privater Privy Council one into the events leading up to the Falklands, There certainly wasn't an Inquiry after the Suez Affair.

(snip)....The longer this pandemic goes on, the more and more convinced I am that "successful" management of the outbreak is correlated mostly to national culture, and almost nothing to do with the actual interventions of the respective governments. Those cultures with a combination of strong social commitment and individual discipline, such as the Far East and Nordic Countries, are faring relatively well, those with strong individualism and scepticism of authority (such as the US and UK) are faring relatively less well. The rest, once we get past the incredibly simple oral and hand hygiene and social distancing, is for the birds.

I've thought that from quite early on.

Though I think that you would also have to include systems in place alongside culture (the extreme example of this might be S Korea holding a SARS pandemic exercise a month before the actual outbreak).

kinabalu said:

Pulpstar said:

Trump leading within the margin of error in the key swing state of Pennsylvania as some might say...

Are they picking up the "shy Trumpers" such as this sweetly reticent lady -

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315624667193974787

Because... FREEDOM ?

Nigelb said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/1315704169437691907?s=20

I'd question that.

No, the real problem is that most of us aren’t smart enough to know what Feynman was on about.

He's talking about 1.7 -- he's even underlined it at the bottom right.

kinabalu said:

Pulpstar said:

Trump leading within the margin of error in the key swing state of Pennsylvania as some might say...

Do we know how that compares to the last Trafalgar Penn poll?

And the million $ dollar question about the polls in general. Are they picking up the "shy Trumpers" such as this sweetly reticent lady -

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315624667193974787

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/ProfFeynman/status/1315704169437691907?s=20

I'd question that.

No, the real problem is that most of us aren’t smart enough to know what Feynman was on about.

He's talking about 1.7 -- he's even underlined it at the bottom right.

-1.7

You at the back - do pay attention please!!!

Gallowgate said:

Pulpstar said:

Trump leading within the margin of error in the key swing state of Pennsylvania as some might say...
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316017992229036033

That's:
Biden (-1%)
Trump (-1%)

Biden is at 47.4 (Trump 45.1) so possible rounding error.

What the devil are "Zogby Analytics" playing at?

Crazy name, crazy gu ... pollsters!

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Pulpstar said:

Trump leading within the margin of error in the key swing state of Pennsylvania as some might say...

Are they picking up the "shy Trumpers" such as this sweetly reticent lady -

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315624667193974787

Because... FREEDOM ?

- But not from "neighbourhood rulebook section 5 clause 10 subsection 3".

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1316024142810943490

Huge difference in the national Biden numbers depending on the pollster today

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315991731612143616?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315991204690042880?s=20

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1316026559875039232

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

TimT said:

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: There was a time when Boris Johnson claimed his government was following the science at every step of its plan for dealing with the coronavirus.

But as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK soars once more, and the country braces for a long, miserable winter, the British Prime Minister appears to be at odds with those same advisers he once placed front and center of the pandemic response.

His Chief Medical Officer on Monday night poured a bucket of very cold water over his latest plans to tackle a worrying upturn in the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. And On Tuesday he was facing further criticism after it emerged that his group of top scientific advisers recommended three weeks ago a significantly tougher package of measures than even he now plans.

Johnson, it seems, is trapped by his bitterly divided Conservative Party -- faced down by the hawks, such as his finance minister Rishi Sunak, who want to keep the economy as open as possible and doves, who think tough measures now would be better in the longer run.

All of these arguments between politics and science will -- eventually -- become known to the public when the UK's coronavirus response is scrutinized at the inevitable public inquiry, at some point in the future.

And however much merit protecting the economy might have in the long run, creating a perception that you are ignoring scientific advice could be dangerous, should the virus run riot and the UK's already massive death toll rise still further.

I am not at all sure that there will be a public inquiry. I suspect that this will treated very much like a war, and I do not recall a public inquiry into any such. There were Inquiries into aspects of the Iraq War, admittedly, and a partially at least privater Privy Council one into the events leading up to the Falklands, There certainly wasn't an Inquiry after the Suez Affair.

(snip)....The longer this pandemic goes on, the more and more convinced I am that "successful" management of the outbreak is correlated mostly to national culture, and almost nothing to do with the actual interventions of the respective governments. Those cultures with a combination of strong social commitment and individual discipline, such as the Far East and Nordic Countries, are faring relatively well, those with strong individualism and scepticism of authority (such as the US and UK) are faring relatively less well. The rest, once we get past the incredibly simple oral and hand hygiene and social distancing, is for the birds.

I've thought that from quite early on.

Though I think that you would also have to include systems in place alongside culture (the extreme example of this might be S Korea holding a SARS pandemic exercise a month before the actual outbreak).

In the West, you can't track people in the way they can in South Korea or China (or weld them in their homes), and you can't fine people into adhering to the rules. So you need a culture that is big on adhering to rules without too much questioning e.g. Sweden and Germany.

Instead here we have the media and the public immediately finding edge cases and trying to find loopholes, rather than taking onboard the general message. Any suggestion of use your common sense is met with outrage. Where as listening to Swedish chief egghead that normally seems his general message.

And in the USA it is all comes down to an attitude is what about MY freedom, the state doesn't have a say in that, I refuse to be told what I can and can't do.

Australia to me seems the biggest success case. They traditionally don't have that Swedish culture and unlike New Zealand are a major transportation hub, especially with China.

True.
But I do wonder how much better we might have done with a consistent policy and message from early on (masks, for example) ? After all, the degree of compliance for the first lockdown surprised the government and scientists.

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

TimT said:

OldKingCole said:

IanB2 said:

CNN: There was a time when Boris Johnson claimed his government was following the science at every step of its plan for dealing with the coronavirus.

But as the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK soars once more, and the country braces for a long, miserable winter, the British Prime Minister appears to be at odds with those same advisers he once placed front and center of the pandemic response.

His Chief Medical Officer on Monday night poured a bucket of very cold water over his latest plans to tackle a worrying upturn in the spread of the coronavirus in the UK. And On Tuesday he was facing further criticism after it emerged that his group of top scientific advisers recommended three weeks ago a significantly tougher package of measures than even he now plans.

Johnson, it seems, is trapped by his bitterly divided Conservative Party -- faced down by the hawks, such as his finance minister Rishi Sunak, who want to keep the economy as open as possible and doves, who think tough measures now would be better in the longer run.

All of these arguments between politics and science will -- eventually -- become known to the public when the UK's coronavirus response is scrutinized at the inevitable public inquiry, at some point in the future.

And however much merit protecting the economy might have in the long run, creating a perception that you are ignoring scientific advice could be dangerous, should the virus run riot and the UK's already massive death toll rise still further.

I am not at all sure that there will be a public inquiry. I suspect that this will treated very much like a war, and I do not recall a public inquiry into any such. There were Inquiries into aspects of the Iraq War, admittedly, and a partially at least privater Privy Council one into the events leading up to the Falklands, There certainly wasn't an Inquiry after the Suez Affair.

(snip)....The longer this pandemic goes on, the more and more convinced I am that "successful" management of the outbreak is correlated mostly to national culture, and almost nothing to do with the actual interventions of the respective governments. Those cultures with a combination of strong social commitment and individual discipline, such as the Far East and Nordic Countries, are faring relatively well, those with strong individualism and scepticism of authority (such as the US and UK) are faring relatively less well. The rest, once we get past the incredibly simple oral and hand hygiene and social distancing, is for the birds.

I've thought that from quite early on.

Though I think that you would also have to include systems in place alongside culture (the extreme example of this might be S Korea holding a SARS pandemic exercise a month before the actual outbreak).

In the West, you can't track people in the way they can in South Korea or China (or weld them in their homes), and you can't fine people into adhering to the rules. So you need a culture that is big on adhering to rules without too much questioning e.g. Sweden and Germany.

Instead here we have the media and the public immediately finding edge cases and trying to find loopholes, rather than taking onboard the general message. Any suggestion of use your common sense is met with outrage. Where as listening to Swedish chief egghead that normally seems his general message.

And in the USA it is all comes down to an attitude is what about MY freedom, the state doesn't have a say in that, I refuse to be told what I can and can't do.

Australia to me seems the biggest success case. They traditionally don't have that Swedish culture and unlike New Zealand are a major transportation hub, especially with China.

True.
But I do wonder how much better we might have done with a consistent policy and message from early on (masks, for example) ? After all, the degree of compliance for the first lockdown surprised the government and scientists.

Doesn't the compliance kind of reduce the impact masks would have had?

The biggest mistake was not going earlier - I'm still not sure why they waited - the moment people businesses started doing it themselves, the government should have said, "right, let's get on with it."