YouGov’s US election model is just out and projects a Biden landslide – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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We were following the science.Scott_xP said:
Then we were following Scotland.
Who are we following now?0 -
She IS. She has balls. He is not. He has none.CorrectHorseBattery said:
ROFL you were saying Priti Patel was typical London yesterday Sean.LadyG said:
Khan is the worst major politician in Britain. Just completely useless, lifeless, clueless. He is presiding over a world city in collapse. He should be out there, visible, energetic, combative, optimistic, the stuff Boris used to do so well as mayor (whatever you thought of his politics)MaxPB said:
He wants to look like he is doing something. It's the same idiotic method of policy making that led to the pointless 10pm closing time.alex_ said:
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.CorrectHorseBattery said:Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
That is the job of London mayor. You don't have much else to do, apart from run the trains, but you ARE a figurehead and you provide leadership, and brio, and you cheer people up.
Burnham does it well for Manchester. He fights for his city. He is high profile.
Khan is just invisible, and whenever you do see him, he is this pathetic, whiny little puppet of a man.0 -
I have to agree, having been around London and some of the bodies he heads up for a decade. Boris, for all his faults, did cheerleading very well.LadyG said:
Khan is the worst major politician in Britain. Just completely useless, lifeless, clueless. He is presiding over a world city in collapse. He should be out there, visible, energetic, combative, optimistic, the stuff Boris used to do so well as mayor (whatever you thought of his politics)MaxPB said:
He wants to look like he is doing something. It's the same idiotic method of policy making that led to the pointless 10pm closing time.alex_ said:
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.CorrectHorseBattery said:Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
That is the job of London mayor. You don't have much else to do, apart from run the trains, but you ARE a figurehead and you provide leadership, and brio, and you cheer people up.
Burnham does it well for Manchester. He fights for his city. He is high profile.
Khan is just invisible, and whenever you do see him, he is this pathetic, whiny little puppet of a man.
Khan has been invisible, only surfacing once in a while to moan about how HMG have been mean to him or to do the bidding of his union paymasters.0 -
Treasure your escape key.CorrectHorseBattery said:I'll definitely be getting the new iPhone, I upgrade every year, my guilty pleasure tech upgrade.
Had the same MacBook Pro for 7 years.0 -
All other things being equal London ought to be the hardest place for the virus to spread. That doesn't mean it won't explode again because other factors will be in play, but there is some natural resistance in London now, and probably particularly within the groups most like to form a link in a chain of infections.MaxPB said:Actually there is, London is already proof that there is some level of herd immunity. We just had tens of thousands of students from all over the country come to London and yet no major outbreaks, some smaller ones but nothing like what we're seeing in the North.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
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Nice of the Tory MPs to vote against protecting food standards ! Just watching the atrocious situation in the USA with food standards. UK livestock farmers won’t be able to compete so either standards are lowered to help them or they go out of business if the UK allows that garbage in from the USA. Anyway they knew what they were voting for allegedly so I hope they enjoy their Brexit bonus !1
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On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe1 -
I'm not aware that he ran away from London during the first wave.LadyG said:
She IS. She has balls. He is not. He has none.CorrectHorseBattery said:
ROFL you were saying Priti Patel was typical London yesterday Sean.LadyG said:
Khan is the worst major politician in Britain. Just completely useless, lifeless, clueless. He is presiding over a world city in collapse. He should be out there, visible, energetic, combative, optimistic, the stuff Boris used to do so well as mayor (whatever you thought of his politics)MaxPB said:
He wants to look like he is doing something. It's the same idiotic method of policy making that led to the pointless 10pm closing time.alex_ said:
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.CorrectHorseBattery said:Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
That is the job of London mayor. You don't have much else to do, apart from run the trains, but you ARE a figurehead and you provide leadership, and brio, and you cheer people up.
Burnham does it well for Manchester. He fights for his city. He is high profile.
Khan is just invisible, and whenever you do see him, he is this pathetic, whiny little puppet of a man.0 -
Pre planned strict lockdowns 2 weeks every 2 months. Businesses can plan stock levels and staffing around this. Minimal impact on mental health. Easy to understand, implement and enforce.Scott_xP said:0 -
If you read Hillary Clinton's book she believes she was clearly in the lead. She claims all the damage was done in the last two weeks when the prosecutor said she was going to be investigated because of her emails. The change in her fortunes was tangible from that date so it's not reasonable to blame Yougov for a poll taken on the 4th.HYUFD said:Yougov's US model in 2016 forecast a Clinton landslide with Hillary winning not just states Trump narrowly won like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida but also states Trump comfortably won like Ohio and Iowa and North Carolina. It was completely wrong.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/10/04/yougov-model-state-2016-election
The Yougov MRP model may work in the UK, in the US last time it was hopeless0 -
Its crazy to call a state if the result is not certificated by their equivalent of the Returning Officer.rottenborough said:
There was a piece I posted a link to the other day about the most important man in America on election night: Fox News voting data analyst.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
If I can find it again I will be repost. From memory it was reassuring, he has no intention of calling anything too soon and he wont be lent on by Fox's owners and so on.0 -
The FDA in the USA will have slowed getting trial 3 results with the partial nixxing of the trial there. OTOH if the placebo group includes some students we'll be quids in...guybrush said:
My question from the last thread... Is it to protect the NHS, save lives, again? Until Spring? Boris was distinctly non-committal regarding the possibility of a vaccine in the commons earlier, so presumably we're not hanging all our hopes on that anymore.alex_ said:
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.CorrectHorseBattery said:Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?0 -
True, though the shrewd thing would have been to put in a level or two below level 1 (hey, maybe we could have had a five point scale like the one we had earlier?) with increasingly light-touch restrictions mapped out. Because one of the things that got botched in the last unlocking was the balance between "it's safer" and "it's not totally safe".LadyG said:
This is the one bit of the government strategy I understand.Stuartinromford said:
The threat levels are like the children in Lake Wobegone; all above average.ydoethur said:
Yes. Staffordshire is still Tier 3.Andy_JS said:
I hope that just includes the West Midlands urban area and not the wider West Midlands region.HYUFD said:Looks like the North and West Midlands will be the focus for the top tier
Edit - that is, ‘Medium’ although how you have ‘medium’ without ‘low’ is beyond me.
How would people react if told their region was "LOW" risk?! Whoah! Go out and party!
Nowhere is Britain is low risk, right now, and HMG is correct to reject the label0 -
How on earth does any business using fresh stock plan around that? It would entail throwing away all their stock at lockdown, then buying new stock after reopening. A bar for instance would have to throw away every open keg, they won't last 2 weeks.noneoftheabove said:
Pre planned strict lockdowns 2 weeks every 2 months. Businesses can plan stock levels and staffing around this. Minimal impact on mental health. Easy to understand, implement and enforce.Scott_xP said:0 -
I have been a Thinkpad devotee for 20 years. My first one had the best keyboard of any laptop I have ever used. I still have it somewhere. I even liked the nipple. I stayed with them through the acquisition, and the change of power supply, twice.rcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe
But my work Lenovo just got replaced with a new Dell. What a revelation!0 -
My argument is and remains that the balance of economy vs restrictions requires local discretion and local knowledge. Not crude national rules which treats every pub or restaurant as the same and cannot distinguish risk. There are pubs which rely on packing people in and maximising turnover. There are others which, even in non Covid times, barely seemed to have more than half a dozen people in at any time. When the 2m rule came in they probably pushed tables closer together! The risk of these places is not the same, but the Govt approaches insists it must be. And it’s nonsensical.0
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You hear troubling, I hear in play betting opportunities.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
ttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
ttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
ttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/13157355970179522562 -
Isn't the primary complaint that things are too confusing? To me, adding extra layers for the sake of it doesn't seem to help with that.Stuartinromford said:
True, though the shrewd thing would have been to put in a level or two below level 1 (hey, maybe we could have had a five point scale like the one we had earlier?) with increasingly light-touch restrictions mapped out. Because one of the things that got botched in the last unlocking was the balance between "it's safer" and "it's not totally safe".LadyG said:
This is the one bit of the government strategy I understand.Stuartinromford said:
The threat levels are like the children in Lake Wobegone; all above average.ydoethur said:
Yes. Staffordshire is still Tier 3.Andy_JS said:
I hope that just includes the West Midlands urban area and not the wider West Midlands region.HYUFD said:Looks like the North and West Midlands will be the focus for the top tier
Edit - that is, ‘Medium’ although how you have ‘medium’ without ‘low’ is beyond me.
How would people react if told their region was "LOW" risk?! Whoah! Go out and party!
Nowhere is Britain is low risk, right now, and HMG is correct to reject the label0 -
"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
The theory and this is something that's fairly widely theorised, not just me:CorrectHorseBattery said:
I know you hate Khan - but I think he's a solid 5/10. Not great, not terrible, solidly rubbish. Leagues above Johnson though.MaxPB said:
Khan is rubbish and he wants to look like he's doing something. He also probably doesn't understand the science in the same way Boris doesn't, he's a useless politician.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Please provide some links. Khan presumably has the data and does not agree.MaxPB said:
Actually there is, London is already proof that there is some level of herd immunity. We just had tens of thousands of students from all over the country come to London and yet no major outbreaks, some smaller ones but nothing like what we're seeing in the North.CorrectHorseBattery said:There is no evidence we’re close to achieving herd immunity.
Regardless, Starmer is playing a game and I can’t see the payoff currently.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
Unfortunately he can't just lockdown London since he doesn't have the powers but asking for decisive action to be taken by HMG is the right approach now.
The publicly available data had antibody presence at 17% in London for the middle of August fwiw. The reports I've seen use the Imperial university data which is a smaller scale study for antibodies but as I said just now, it looked like 20% city wide with a band of 10-40% depending on the borough. It's not a huge surprise in a city where the main mode of transportation is squeezing as many people as possible into a tiny tin can.
I simply don't buy this idea London is anywhere close to herd immunity I am afraid, higher than the rest of the country, yes. But nowhere close to the levels needed.
To achieve herd immunity that means thousands of more cases and deaths. Khan is not prepared to allow that to happen and I don't want to see that either.
1. London has a younger more social population.
2. People who interact with each other come into contact with a lot of other people on any given day.
3. Those people are more likely to have got the Rona in Feb to April.
4. Those same people are still the same ones going out doing service jobs or going to pubs.
5. London has a very high proportion of its workforce in service jobs where the risk of exposure has been high.
6. All of this adds up to situations where there is a population of younger people who socialise that have already acquired immunity and when someone who has the virus enters this community the virus runs into these immune hosts at a high enough rate that it causes a reduction in the base R value of the virus.
I'm not saying London has achieved city wide herd immunity, what I'm saying is that it is well within the realms of possibility that the people who go to pubs, bars, restaurants or travel on the tube have higher immunity levels than those who don't due to the huge March outbreak. It's a story of a two tier London because the younger population doesn't interact with the older population as much. Almost all of my friends are not from London and live alone, with their partners or in house shares. None live with their parents or older people and their contact with older people is extremely limited outside of the workplace and now they all WFH.
Basically London has charted the young people should catch it and old people shouldn't because that's how a huge part of the city already lives.1 -
Even for someone interested in these things, tonight's Despatches on CH4 (starting shortly on CH4+1) is quite an eye opener.nico679 said:Nice of the Tory MPs to vote against protecting food standards ! Just watching the atrocious situation in the USA with food standards. UK livestock farmers won’t be able to compete so either standards are lowered to help them or they go out of business if the UK allows that garbage in from the USA. Anyway they knew what they were voting for allegedly so I hope they enjoy their Brexit bonus !
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You would go to bottles/other beers only when unsure if you would get through the next keg in time.Philip_Thompson said:
How on earth does any business using fresh stock plan around that? It would entail throwing away all their stock at lockdown, then buying new stock after reopening. A bar for instance would have to throw away every open keg, they won't last 2 weeks.noneoftheabove said:
Pre planned strict lockdowns 2 weeks every 2 months. Businesses can plan stock levels and staffing around this. Minimal impact on mental health. Easy to understand, implement and enforce.Scott_xP said:0 -
Sage didn't recommend 5 interventions. It gave a short list of 5 to be selected from. That's what the minutes say. Sam Coates needs to learn to read English.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It has at my university.Pulpstar said:"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
It can be online-only from their residence at university. Most will have tenancy contracts anyway.Scott_xP said:0 -
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe0 -
Glad to hearGallowgate said:
It has at my university.Pulpstar said:"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
Well yes, but I'm worried I'll balls it upAlistair said:
You hear troubling, I hear in play betting opportunities.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
ttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
ttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
ttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/13157355970179522560 -
It's all about the Apple silicon!CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe1 -
That's the impression I got, that a good fraction of things are now online, although admittedly not absolutely everything. The problem is likely not in the classroom, but with the extra-curricular activities.Gallowgate said:
It has at my university.Pulpstar said:"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
Mishkin writes interesting articles that appear on the fox news website that don't get a lot of attentionrottenborough said:
There was a piece I posted a link to the other day about the most important man in America on election night: Fox News voting data analyst.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
If I can find it again I will be repost. From memory it was reassuring, he has no intention of calling anything too soon and he wont be lent on by Fox's owners and so on.
E. G.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/polling-trump-election-arnon-mishkin0 -
no expert but aren’t the figures on herd immunity a bit misrepresented. There’s herd immunity in a population taking no precautions. And there’s herd immunity when the most vulnerable continue to hide away, or are very careful when venturing out. And for the purposes of containing the disease in the short term it’s the latter you should look to.Foxy said:
Less than 15% IMO, a long way off herd immunity. Imperial calculated London at 13% in August.IanB2 said:
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
I think the only city approaching herd immunity is Manaus in Brazil, at around 60%.
It’s not that London would have herd immunity if we recreated the conditions of February now. But in a world of masks, rule of six, vulnerable staying at home, shielding in care homes... it’s reasonable to suppose we don’t need new restrictions to contain the spread sufficiently.2 -
Go back to the office may also get a mention.Scott_xP said:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/13157358151217643590 -
Poetic justice he was filmed by Tesco CCTV.CorrectHorseBattery said:Disgusting but also bizarre.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-54512783
OF COURSE the whole notion that election results must be declared immediately (if not sooner) is a journalist ramp. Which political partisans jump upon depending on how the votes appear to be stacking up.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
In my own misspent youth remember well how I went to bed on ENight 1968 hopeful that Hubert Humphrey could still pull it out - only to find the morning after that 'twas NOT to be.
In 1916 the result was still in doubt on Thursday morning, when California result went to Wilson (by margin of 3.8k out of 1m cast); CA GOP conceded that evening.
Note that in both these cases, communications were almost as speedy (via telegraph & telephone) as today; also that almost all voting in 1916 was via paper ballots with multiple races to count, while in 1968 the percentage of votes cast via paper ballot was much less but still substantial, esp in rural states and counties.2 -
The new XPS is absolutely brilliant. My workplace are replacing mine with one of the new Rocket Lake ones. My old one will go to a junior we hired recently stuck with a broken Lenovo. Feel bad for the guy, I used to use that and it was broken when I got it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe1 -
It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g0 -
Read "Shattered". It is a lot more credible account of what was happening with the Clinton campaign than what Clinton wrote. The DNC was being told for months she was in trouble in the Rust Belt but she ignored the signs.Roger said:
If you read Hillary Clinton's book she believes she was clearly in the lead. She claims all the damage was done in the last two weeks when the prosecutor said she was going to be investigated because of her emails. The change in her fortunes was tangible from that date so it's not reasonable to blame Yougov for a poll taken on the 4th.HYUFD said:Yougov's US model in 2016 forecast a Clinton landslide with Hillary winning not just states Trump narrowly won like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida but also states Trump comfortably won like Ohio and Iowa and North Carolina. It was completely wrong.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/10/04/yougov-model-state-2016-election
The Yougov MRP model may work in the UK, in the US last time it was hopeless
So, yes, it is reasonable to blame YouGov.1 -
The PHE Week 40 report reckons it went as high as 16%, then down to 8% and then back up to about 12%. But that does come from L ood donors and I am not sure how representative they are https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reportsMaxPB said:
Tbf, the report doesn't provide the source data either just a paragraph on immunity levels and that the data is provided from a serology study conducted by a major London university (Imperial because I know they are doing one, my sister took part as an employee).CorrectHorseBattery said:
It's disappointing you can't provide any links though, it would be interesting to read.MaxPB said:
This comes from paid for research for the bank's own reporting. Take it how you want. 🤷♂️CorrectHorseBattery said:
Please provide some links.MaxPB said:
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)0 -
Interesting article re Michigan. For all those who have it a near-cert Biden win
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
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Fat Man and future RobberScott_xP said:0 -
In most European countries 99.9% of votes are counted within a few hours of the polls closing. I don't know why the United States can't do the same thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Poetic justice he was filmed by Tesco CCTV.CorrectHorseBattery said:Disgusting but also bizarre.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-54512783
OF COURSE the whole notion that election results must be declared immediately (if not sooner) is a journalist ramp. Which political partisans jump upon depending on how the votes appear to be stacking up.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
In my own misspent youth remember well how I went to bed on ENight 1968 hopeful that Hubert Humphrey could still pull it out - only to find the morning after that 'twas NOT to be.
In 1916 the result was still in doubt on Thursday morning, when California result went to Wilson (by margin of 3.8k out of 1m cast); CA GOP conceded that evening.
Note that in both these cases, communications were almost as speedy (via telegraph & telephone) as today; also that almost all voting in 1916 was via paper ballots with multiple races to count, while in 1968 the percentage of votes cast via paper ballot was much less but still substantial, esp in rural states and counties.4 -
I want to get the new MacBook Pro but I'm not willing to get one without Apple Silicon onboard.MaxPB said:
The new XPS is absolutely brilliant. My workplace are replacing mine with one of the new Rocket Lake ones. My old one will go to a junior we hired recently stuck with a broken Lenovo. Feel bad for the guy, I used to use that and it was broken when I got it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe
I am wondering if I should wait for a Ryzen-powered XPS though, thoughts?0 -
I honestly don't see the fuss. Why shouldn't people retrain for wildly different careers?Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g0 -
Leicester University has its own testing unit, and publishes our figures here:
https://le.ac.uk/coronavirus/data-statistics?dm_i=I8Y,72T63,1G5ZIW,SL9NV,1
There seems to be some weekend effect.2 -
Rocket Lake has the same transistor density as TSMC 7nm and better thermals, it depends on what you want to do though. If you're running something highly parallelised then Ryzen probably makes more sense but it you want better IPC then Rocket Lake is better.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want to get the new MacBook Pro but I'm not willing to get one without Apple Silicon onboard.MaxPB said:
The new XPS is absolutely brilliant. My workplace are replacing mine with one of the new Rocket Lake ones. My old one will go to a junior we hired recently stuck with a broken Lenovo. Feel bad for the guy, I used to use that and it was broken when I got it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe
I am wondering if I should wait for a Ryzen-powered XPS though, thoughts?
Not sure that XPS will go down the Ryzen route though.1 -
I like this one:Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g
3 -
Don't forget that immunity is something which builds up and remains even after antibodies fade. It has a cumulative effect.JohnLilburne said:
The PHE Week 40 report reckons it went as high as 16%, then down to 8% and then back up to about 12%. But that does come from L ood donors and I am not sure how representative they are https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reportsMaxPB said:
Tbf, the report doesn't provide the source data either just a paragraph on immunity levels and that the data is provided from a serology study conducted by a major London university (Imperial because I know they are doing one, my sister took part as an employee).CorrectHorseBattery said:
It's disappointing you can't provide any links though, it would be interesting to read.MaxPB said:
This comes from paid for research for the bank's own reporting. Take it how you want. 🤷♂️CorrectHorseBattery said:
Please provide some links.MaxPB said:
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)0 -
Indeed. I think someone said that postal votes sent on day of the election but which might arrive days later still have to be counted, but that cannot be sufficient. There's also lots of down ballot contests, but I'd assume the presidential ones are counted first (though I think in some places at least they are all on the same form), and of course there's all the different methods of voting different states use. It all seems more complicated than it needs to be.Andy_JS said:
In most European countries 99.9% of votes are counted within a few hours of the polls closing. I don't know why the United States can't do the same thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Poetic justice he was filmed by Tesco CCTV.CorrectHorseBattery said:Disgusting but also bizarre.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-54512783
OF COURSE the whole notion that election results must be declared immediately (if not sooner) is a journalist ramp. Which political partisans jump upon depending on how the votes appear to be stacking up.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
In my own misspent youth remember well how I went to bed on ENight 1968 hopeful that Hubert Humphrey could still pull it out - only to find the morning after that 'twas NOT to be.
In 1916 the result was still in doubt on Thursday morning, when California result went to Wilson (by margin of 3.8k out of 1m cast); CA GOP conceded that evening.
Note that in both these cases, communications were almost as speedy (via telegraph & telephone) as today; also that almost all voting in 1916 was via paper ballots with multiple races to count, while in 1968 the percentage of votes cast via paper ballot was much less but still substantial, esp in rural states and counties.0 -
-
That's brilliant!Foxy said:
I like this one:Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g
The campaign does seem tone death while the arts are taking a hammering though, thanks to government policy.1 -
Sadly I am stuck using Remote Desktop to my work machine, so any specifics for architecture are mostly lost. In fact it's Remote Desktop's piss poor performance on macOS that is pushing me away.MaxPB said:
Rocket Lake has the same transistor density as TSMC 7nm and better thermals, it depends on what you want to do though. If you're running something highly parallelised then Ryzen probably makes more sense but it you want better IPC then Rocket Lake is better.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want to get the new MacBook Pro but I'm not willing to get one without Apple Silicon onboard.MaxPB said:
The new XPS is absolutely brilliant. My workplace are replacing mine with one of the new Rocket Lake ones. My old one will go to a junior we hired recently stuck with a broken Lenovo. Feel bad for the guy, I used to use that and it was broken when I got it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe
I am wondering if I should wait for a Ryzen-powered XPS though, thoughts?
Not sure that XPS will go down the Ryzen route though.
More important on the daily would be battery life.
0 -
So, if oral and hand hygiene coupled with social distancing can get the effective R number down to 1.1, all London is fine; at 20%, those parts of London need to keep R below 1.25, and at 40%, below 1.7. It strikes me that the latter two numbers should be achievable relatively easily without resorting to lockdowns.MaxPB said:
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)3 -
I think the message is bluntly put, and understandably upsets people especially those who might feel their industry is not getting the support others are, but the basic premise seems fine even if the execution in this way is likely not the way to go about it. Even in good times dancers might need to take other jobs, there's bound to be more people want to be professional dancers than their are jobs. And when we have millions unemployed that'll be true for many, unfortunately.glw said:
I honestly don't see the fuss. Why shouldn't people retrain for wildly different careers?Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g1 -
I think whichever fuckwit at the heart of government thought this was a good idea needs to retrain themselves.Foxy said:
I like this one:Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g4 -
Dom.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think whichever fuckwit at the heart of government thought this was a good idea needs to retrain themselves.Foxy said:
I like this one:Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g0 -
There's also T cells, possible immune reactions from infection with other coronaviruses and some people might have more of a genetic indisposition to either infection or the worst effects. So possible the effective immunity level is higher than the people who show positive for antibodies. We don't know why some people are asymptomatic or just get a mild infection. Of course I'm clutching at straws here.alex_ said:
no expert but aren’t the figures on herd immunity a bit misrepresented. There’s herd immunity in a population taking no precautions. And there’s herd immunity when the most vulnerable continue to hide away, or are very careful when venturing out. And for the purposes of containing the disease in the short term it’s the latter you should look to.Foxy said:
Less than 15% IMO, a long way off herd immunity. Imperial calculated London at 13% in August.IanB2 said:
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
I think the only city approaching herd immunity is Manaus in Brazil, at around 60%.
It’s not that London would have herd immunity if we recreated the conditions of February now. But in a world of masks, rule of six, vulnerable staying at home, shielding in care homes... it’s reasonable to suppose we don’t need new restrictions to contain the spread sufficiently.0 -
There is a particularly pointed one of Dom floating aboutCorrectHorseBattery said:Dom.
2 -
Remote desktop 🤮 how do you work like that? VPNs are the superior remote working method. Yeah remote desktop on Mac is horrible. I think both will be amazing for battery life.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Sadly I am stuck using Remote Desktop to my work machine, so any specifics for architecture are mostly lost. In fact it's Remote Desktop's piss poor performance on macOS that is pushing me away.MaxPB said:
Rocket Lake has the same transistor density as TSMC 7nm and better thermals, it depends on what you want to do though. If you're running something highly parallelised then Ryzen probably makes more sense but it you want better IPC then Rocket Lake is better.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want to get the new MacBook Pro but I'm not willing to get one without Apple Silicon onboard.MaxPB said:
The new XPS is absolutely brilliant. My workplace are replacing mine with one of the new Rocket Lake ones. My old one will go to a junior we hired recently stuck with a broken Lenovo. Feel bad for the guy, I used to use that and it was broken when I got it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe
I am wondering if I should wait for a Ryzen-powered XPS though, thoughts?
Not sure that XPS will go down the Ryzen route though.
More important on the daily would be battery life.1 -
With some difficulty, at least it supports multiple monitors. We've always worked like this remotely, we didn't do much remote working prior to the pandemic so I suspect that's the reason why. I don't have any choice.MaxPB said:
Remote desktop 🤮 how do you work like that? VPNs are the superior remote working method. Yeah remote desktop on Mac is horrible. I think both will be amazing for battery life.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Sadly I am stuck using Remote Desktop to my work machine, so any specifics for architecture are mostly lost. In fact it's Remote Desktop's piss poor performance on macOS that is pushing me away.MaxPB said:
Rocket Lake has the same transistor density as TSMC 7nm and better thermals, it depends on what you want to do though. If you're running something highly parallelised then Ryzen probably makes more sense but it you want better IPC then Rocket Lake is better.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want to get the new MacBook Pro but I'm not willing to get one without Apple Silicon onboard.MaxPB said:
The new XPS is absolutely brilliant. My workplace are replacing mine with one of the new Rocket Lake ones. My old one will go to a junior we hired recently stuck with a broken Lenovo. Feel bad for the guy, I used to use that and it was broken when I got it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was considering a Dell XPS next but I am not sure about changing from macOSrcs1000 said:On the subject of tech, I'm very excited by the prospect of the Lenovo X1 Fold...
Mine arrives on the 21st of Octobe
I am wondering if I should wait for a Ryzen-powered XPS though, thoughts?
Not sure that XPS will go down the Ryzen route though.
More important on the daily would be battery life.
I'm not sure why we can't just run the code on our own machines, obviously it won't run on macOS anyway but most people use Windows.0 -
Yes and we can see that there has been no huge outbreak despite Heathrow, despite a huge number of incoming students from overseas and the rest of the country arriving in the last month.TimT said:
So, if oral and hand hygiene coupled with social distancing can get the effective R number down to 1.1, all London is fine; at 20%, those parts of London need to keep R below 1.25, and at 40%, below 1.7. It strikes me that the latter two numbers should be achievable relatively easily without resorting to lockdowns.MaxPB said:
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The behavioural science on this is sound and we're seeing that in the transmission rates.1 -
Not like you to be shy about twitter:Scott_xP said:
There is a particularly pointed one of Dom floating aboutCorrectHorseBattery said:Dom.
https://twitter.com/oztrazine/status/1315633704161677315?s=093 -
-
rcs1000 said:
I think Iowa might be back in play again - there have been a string of poor polls for Joni Ernst of late.Pulpstar said:
Peters seems to be a weak candidate from what I can gather on twitter. OTOH The Dems have a shot at Kansas https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdfMrEd said:FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/miwi1020-crosstabs/b0a09cd1cd0048df/full.pdf
James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.
Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan
My current "will flip" states are:
Arizona and Colorado. (And Alabama, of course.)
There are then two or three states which are now probables:
Iowa, Maine
Then there are the possibles:
Michigan, Georgia (x2), North Carolina
And then the theoreticals:
Montana, South Carolina
Maybe Kansas or Kentucky if it's an extraordinarily bad night for the Republicans
My best guess right now is that Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Maine will go Dem, while Alabama goes Republican. I'd then expect one or two of my "possibles" to flip.
There are some questions about that.Foxy said:
Less than 15% IMO, a long way off herd immunity. Imperial calculated London at 13% in August.IanB2 said:
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
I think the only city approaching herd immunity is Manaus in Brazil, at around 60%.
Hotspots of resurgent Covid erode faith in ‘herd immunity’
https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb0 -
This is going round on Insta.2 -
And who made instagram?Gallowgate said:
This is going round on Insta.
0 -
There are of course scenarios in which Trump could win. But much of this type of story relies on GOP state officials talking up their guy's chances (Mandy Rice Davies has that covered) and Democratic supporters worrying about losing again.MrEd said:Interesting article re Michigan. For all those who have it a near-cert Biden win
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/12/opinions/us-elections-2020-michigan-conservatives-finley/index.html
Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No.1 -
Nick CleggRobD said:1 -
Uni teaching is not the problem. It's idiot students ignoring all the Covid guidance.Pulpstar said:"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
It's not, there's a study which has looked at severity of infection for couples with young children and couples without. It showed that there was a marked reduction of severity for those with young children and the theory is that their parents are benefiting from cross immunity while those without children don't have that kind of exposure to minor coronaviruses.JohnLilburne said:
There's also T cells, possible immune reactions from infection with other coronaviruses and some people might have more of a genetic indisposition to either infection or the worst effects. So possible the effective immunity level is higher than the people who show positive for antibodies. We don't know why some people are asymptomatic or just get a mild infection. Of course I'm clutching at straws here.alex_ said:
no expert but aren’t the figures on herd immunity a bit misrepresented. There’s herd immunity in a population taking no precautions. And there’s herd immunity when the most vulnerable continue to hide away, or are very careful when venturing out. And for the purposes of containing the disease in the short term it’s the latter you should look to.Foxy said:
Less than 15% IMO, a long way off herd immunity. Imperial calculated London at 13% in August.IanB2 said:
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
I think the only city approaching herd immunity is Manaus in Brazil, at around 60%.
It’s not that London would have herd immunity if we recreated the conditions of February now. But in a world of masks, rule of six, vulnerable staying at home, shielding in care homes... it’s reasonable to suppose we don’t need new restrictions to contain the spread sufficiently.1 -
So did Whitty update his graph ?
We should have been at 45k infections today.0 -
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-
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Herd immunity can 100% be achieved ex a vaccine, the rows of graves in Manaus show the way.Nigelb said:rcs1000 said:
I think Iowa might be back in play again - there have been a string of poor polls for Joni Ernst of late.Pulpstar said:
Peters seems to be a weak candidate from what I can gather on twitter. OTOH The Dems have a shot at Kansas https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdfMrEd said:FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/miwi1020-crosstabs/b0a09cd1cd0048df/full.pdf
James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.
Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan
My current "will flip" states are:
Arizona and Colorado. (And Alabama, of course.)
There are then two or three states which are now probables:
Iowa, Maine
Then there are the possibles:
Michigan, Georgia (x2), North Carolina
And then the theoreticals:
Montana, South Carolina
Maybe Kansas or Kentucky if it's an extraordinarily bad night for the Republicans
My best guess right now is that Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Maine will go Dem, while Alabama goes Republican. I'd then expect one or two of my "possibles" to flip.
There are some questions about that.Foxy said:
Less than 15% IMO, a long way off herd immunity. Imperial calculated London at 13% in August.IanB2 said:
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
I think the only city approaching herd immunity is Manaus in Brazil, at around 60%.
Hotspots of resurgent Covid erode faith in ‘herd immunity’
https://www.ft.com/content/5b96ee2d-9ced-46ae-868f-43c9d8df1ecb0 -
I preferred the one about ‘castle tour guide.’Foxy said:
Not like you to be shy about twitter:Scott_xP said:
There is a particularly pointed one of Dom floating aboutCorrectHorseBattery said:Dom.
https://twitter.com/oztrazine/status/1315633704161677315?s=09
But this was also rather good:
https://twitter.com/the_real_nick_b/status/13156208749434306591 -
What did Scott do before Twitter was invented?0
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Ballet dancer.CorrectHorseBattery said:What did Scott do before Twitter was invented?
8 -
It's not actually known which came first.CorrectHorseBattery said:What did Scott do before Twitter was invented?
3 -
I was right.rottenborough said:0 -
Now he cybers.rottenborough said:
Ballet dancer.CorrectHorseBattery said:What did Scott do before Twitter was invented?
0 -
Look paragraph 2, though. Really strong steer that a single measure from the menu won't be enough.JohnLilburne said:
Sage didn't recommend 5 interventions. It gave a short list of 5 to be selected from. That's what the minutes say. Sam Coates needs to learn to read English.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
But they are doing three of five, and the fourth is almost de facto happening anyway.Stuartinromford said:
Look paragraph 2, though. Really strong steer that a single measure from the menu won't be enough.JohnLilburne said:
Sage didn't recommend 5 interventions. It gave a short list of 5 to be selected from. That's what the minutes say. Sam Coates needs to learn to read English.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have 12%.IanB2 said:
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.JohnLilburne said:
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?MaxPB said:
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.alex_ said:
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.Anabobazina said:
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?Andy_JS said:"What tier is your area in?
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)1 -
But the question is - what's in it for them?Foxy said:Off topic, I would be surprised if Princess Diana was not being eavesdropped by the security services. Far easier than catching terrorists, but quite significant to the reputation and security of the monarchy.
0 -
US elections are designed to be a job creation scheme for lawyers.Andy_JS said:
In most European countries 99.9% of votes are counted within a few hours of the polls closing. I don't know why the United States can't do the same thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Poetic justice he was filmed by Tesco CCTV.CorrectHorseBattery said:Disgusting but also bizarre.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-54512783
OF COURSE the whole notion that election results must be declared immediately (if not sooner) is a journalist ramp. Which political partisans jump upon depending on how the votes appear to be stacking up.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
In my own misspent youth remember well how I went to bed on ENight 1968 hopeful that Hubert Humphrey could still pull it out - only to find the morning after that 'twas NOT to be.
In 1916 the result was still in doubt on Thursday morning, when California result went to Wilson (by margin of 3.8k out of 1m cast); CA GOP conceded that evening.
Note that in both these cases, communications were almost as speedy (via telegraph & telephone) as today; also that almost all voting in 1916 was via paper ballots with multiple races to count, while in 1968 the percentage of votes cast via paper ballot was much less but still substantial, esp in rural states and counties.0 -
It is true that I gave up my career in the performing arts to pursue a career in cyberrottenborough said:Ballet dancer.
Still not sure it was a good call1 -
But who's going to pay 10k a year and get into a lifetime of debt in exchange for a few ted talks and a weekly zoom call?ladupnorth said:
Uni teaching is not the problem. It's idiot students ignoring all the Covid guidance.Pulpstar said:"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
It's all going to come crashing down, especially without the foreign students propping the whole thing up with their full fees.kyf_100 said:
But who's going to pay 10k a year and get into a lifetime of debt in exchange for a few ted talks and a weekly zoom call?ladupnorth said:
Uni teaching is not the problem. It's idiot students ignoring all the Covid guidance.Pulpstar said:"moving all uni teaching online - hasn’t been adopted."
Unbelievable that this is the case, it can't be done with lab based work but tutorials could and should have been done through Zoom/teams or w/e. My course (Maths) could be delivered online for instance.
This isn't school where deprived kids are going to suffer through a lack of tech/motivated parents.0 -
I wonder if people would have taken similar offence if the occupation of the person needing to retrain had been different? It does seem to me that arty types are getting offended about the notion of doing something non-arty.kle4 said:
I think the message is bluntly put, and understandably upsets people especially those who might feel their industry is not getting the support others are, but the basic premise seems fine even if the execution in this way is likely not the way to go about it. Even in good times dancers might need to take other jobs, there's bound to be more people want to be professional dancers than their are jobs. And when we have millions unemployed that'll be true for many, unfortunately.glw said:
I honestly don't see the fuss. Why shouldn't people retrain for wildly different careers?Andy_JS said:It's difficult to understand how anyone could have thought this was a good idea.
"The culture secretary has disowned a government advertising campaign that suggested ballet dancers could “reboot” their careers by retraining in IT." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/fatima-s-next-job-advert-reboot-h0fwqhb2g0 -
In most of US this is state Secretary of State, and locally county/town clerk or auditor or whatever who is directly responsible for administering & conducting elections.Foxy said:
Its crazy to call a state if the result is not certificated by their equivalent of the Returning Officer.rottenborough said:
There was a piece I posted a link to the other day about the most important man in America on election night: Fox News voting data analyst.TheScreamingEagles said:Mr Silver's has raised the issue of what's been troubling me for weeks.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
If I can find it again I will be repost. From memory it was reassuring, he has no intention of calling anything too soon and he wont be lent on by Fox's owners and so on.
NOTE that official certification of results typically occurs weeks after EDay.
Since waiting that long is both a drag AND unnecessary unless some races are very close (or lots of votes still outstanding) the practice developed (in 19th century) of newspapers recording and collating local results in their publication area. Fairly early on journalists began using (at first) rudimentary analysis to calculate how votes from late-reporting jurisdictions were likely to affect the final outcome.
In 20th century national news services, most notably Associated Press (AP) took over this function. Up until early this century their practice was to have someone in just about every county (or town) election office to get the results throughout ENight and report to AP.0 -
You are Professor Whitty and I claim my £5 worth of negative interest savings.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was right.rottenborough said:1
