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YouGov’s US election model is just out and projects a Biden landslide – politicalbetting.com
YouGov’s US election model is just out and projects a Biden landslide – politicalbetting.com
Here are the latest results from our 2020 presidential election model:ELECTORAL COLLEGEBiden 363 / Trump 175POPULAR VOTEBiden 53.3% / Trump 44.6%Check out the interactive map for state-level results and more at https://t.co/5xQeQUaklG pic.twitter.com/xbaLMdwxeN
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Virtually no-one at the BBC knew what was happening and the director general even felt the need to hide it from the Chairman, the laughably named Marmaduke Hussey, who if he had been aware would likely have tried to stop it. Hussey's wife incidentally was a lady in waiting to the Queen. He's also been appointed to chair the BBC by that well known class warrior Margaret Thatcher. His attitude to a free media being unclear it would seem. He tried to get revenge on Director General John Birt afterwards lying to Daily Telegraph editor Charles Moore that Birt had been forced to apologise to the BBC board in the hope that such embarrassment would cause Birt to resign. As it was the board had no interest in Hussey's protestations and he himself resigned soon afterwards.
After making the programme Panorama editor Steve Hewlitt was so concerned that they were being watched he hired someone to the edit the tape in a hotel in Eastbourne. Diana of course believed she was being bugged by the security services, about which she may have been right and that lack of trust arguably lead towards her death as she dispensed with their support. It all strikes me now as bizarre. At the time I probably had a vague sense of 'well it may be toe-curling but this is Britain, wart's and all, you can say what you want about whomever you want without fear of repercussion. The idea that a substantial part of the establishment would be hostile to such disclosures and the quaint royals would ruthlessly look to suppress it would have struck me as absurd. Was Diana about to make some earth shattering revelations? Detail incidences of satanic abuse, murder, criminality and corruption? Were these the secrets the House of Windsor couldn't allow to become public. Well no. It turns out what she had to tell us is that she didn't feel they had treated her well, were uncaring she wasn't sure Charles would make a good king. It now all seems rather tame although Nicholas Soames was quickly out of the blocks on Newsnight suggesting she must be unhinged.
Incidentally the reaction afterwards of the popular press is strangely negative towards Diana, the sympathy so obvious to immature teenage boys clearly lost on fleet street. In magnificent style the public pay no attention to the sneering hacks which is always a pleasure to see as Diana’s star grows further. At this point the programme neatly brings in Tony Blair then heading towards a landslide majority. I confess I never really understood the euphoria around the 1997 election, why it meant so much to some people just as I didn't understand the hysteria around Diana's death a few months later. I was as shocked as anyone but the elevation of her into a goddess wasn't something I could grasp. I always found Blair's anti-establishment posturing a bit egotistical and aggressive, a kind of self-indulgent public schoolboy rebel without a cause who's ignorant of his own privilege. But for the first time I think I understood it. There was something ugly about the British establishment and those who saw him and Diana as spokespeople for something new were at least partly right. Blair's reputation soured for many reasons in the following years and you could easily argue that he simply sought to replace the establishment with his own cronies, a forerunner of the modern day chumocracy. But I've rarely felt more empathy with him or better understood the optimism of his time.
Some like to think that Diana was an aberration and that with her out of the way, thank goodness, the Windsors were eventually able to triumph in a surprising comeback. I'm not so sure. Other than the Queen they aren't especially popular. We face the possibility of a King married to someone known as not the Queen but Princess consort and who already doesn't dare take the title Princess of Wales. Increasingly it's the next generation who are the face of the monarchy and it looks a lot more like a House of Spencer than a House of Windsor. They are clearly keen to carry on her work with advocacy for topics like mental health. The story of the interview would make for good revealing drama. I hope The Crown don't flunk it.
At least something is going right
Nothing substantial, $1 million should do.
He was either lying, or he is stupid, or perhaps both.
When are the scientists going to start taking responsibility for their own incompetence? When do they start resigning and apologising?
We are rightly tough on the crap politicians, but the scientific advice has also been utterly rubbish, at times.
I dare not think it. Indeed I have bet on Trump.
Lol is all I can say.
Pennsylvania
OCT 5-9, 2020
Whitman Insight Strategies
517 LV
Biden
51%
46%
Trump
Biden +5
President: general election
Florida
SEP 27-OCT 2, 2020
C/D
Saint Leo University
500 RV
Biden
49%
43%
Trump
Biden +6
https://twitter.com/TracyDoucet/status/1315708141913374720
It uses different variables and methodology, because Great Britain and the US have a different electoral geography.
Or did you really think he was a good bet?
Many people who live in Chester work in Liverpool or Manchester, but large parts of the rural areas never go near those places on a regular basis.
I think one of the Wolverhampton MPs pointed out her figures were some of the lowest in the country.
2000hrs EDT according to Twitter.
But the government comms is shite, they can't even do that.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/dec/10/monarchy.peterallen
The American secret service was bugging Princess Diana's telephone conversations without the approval of the British security services on the night she died, according to the most comprehensive report on her death, to be published this week.
Among extraordinary details due to emerge in the report by former Metropolitan police commissioner Lord Stevens is the revelation that the US security service was bugging her calls in the hours before she was killed in a car crash in Paris.
🤔
Some Americans seem to think royals are far more important than they actually are.
But, to be honest, poll rampers will say just about anything – usually the follow through isn't as potent as the fart.
There's also the issue that in some states you cannot ask mail in voters how they HAVE voted, so that skews the model, particularly in a pandemic world.
As a general rule there's only one or two elections on UK general election, for some Americans there's many more, and the possibility of split ticketing could skew the model, so they have to make assumptions for that too.
We don't have much split ticketing in the UK.
I think that's why Mrs Thatcher exploded at the idea of Anthony Blunt being that close to the Queen, he could view those papers (and pass them on.)
We have a charlatan Chancellor who last week announced a supposed national extension to the furlough scheme which now turns out to apply only to the Liverpool City area.
There's much more potential split ticketing.
On the royal family, there are rules to a constitutional monarchy. Some of its members are careless in following them.
The Queen has been impeccable in exemplifying them throughout her reign, consistently working hard to build bridges within the UK and to cement bonds within and across the Commonwealth, and she's always put herself last - which is why she's so widely respected.
Old fashioned though it might be there's a lot to be said for Duty.
A pulchritude of polling from the US in the past couple of days. IBD/TIPP has Biden up 9 (52-43) in an all-candidates contest and 53-42 in a forced match.
Some interesting demographics in this poll which contradict those from some other polls. Men apparently back Trump 52-44 (some other polls have them tied) while women are voting Biden 59-36 so a massive 23-point lead. White voters back Trump 50-45 but white women back Biden 51-45 so the big lead enjoyed by Trump in 2016 among White voters has bene eroded.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-leads-donald-trump-ibd-tipp-2020-election-tracking-poll-oct-12/
On the state poll front, solid leads for Biden in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Clinton won Colorado by five in 2016 but a new poll puts Biden ahead by ten. In Montana, a 20-point Trump lead has been cut to just six. It does seem Biden is doing disproportionately well in Red strongholds than in marginal states and piling up votes where it seems less likely they'll be of any value.
BUT...
If we are seeing this bigger swing, states like Iowa, Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Alaska and Ohio are all in play. I'm NOT suggesting Biden will win all of them or indeed any of them but I do expect him to get a bigger swing in some of these states than UNS might suggest.
Will be interesting to see what it says.
Fundamentally this virus is not that difficult to contain in a stable population. For most of the year most people spend their time in family units and relatively small social groups. If the virus enters in of these groups it may well spread throughout them pretty quickly but then it will fizzle out. The real danger is when these close knit groups break down.
And virtually all the Govt measures through this crisis have been targeted at keeping virus within these social groups (rule of six etc) but then this would have happened anyway so had little effect.
In the U.K. there have been two major waves of this virus - and both can be traced back to huge mixing of populations. The first was in March and was due to holiday travel (holiday travel in the summer wasn’t the same issue because it was much reduced and planes/airports have become much safer) The second was in September and was due to Universities returning. These have dwarfed everything else. Shut the borders in March and the virus never takes hold in the first place. Don’t let universities return (or plan it MUCH better) and we don’t get the massive resurgence in September.
Everything else (given wfh, closed nightclubs, massively reduced travel on public transport) is just noise, that is killing the economy and having little significant effect on the virus.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/10/04/yougov-model-state-2016-election
The Yougov MRP model may work in the UK, in the US last time it was hopeless
"Sheffield, home to some half a million students, has two universities - the University of Sheffield and Sheffield Hallam University "
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8831343/Covid-19-infection-rates-universities-SEVEN-TIMES-higher-local-cities.html
I doubt Andrew, Edward or Harry get anything at all.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518
Johnson getting bouncier as the presser progresses.