Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Just imagine how bad it would have been if Dom didn't have his Mission Control up and running to avoid any Comms shitshows...
What people (and I like to think pb Tories are people) forget is that #ClassicDom's control room with big tellies and smart SpAds was previously used when Gordon Brown was Prime Minister and it did not work then either.
So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark
They have yet to be implemented, so I am not sure how you can confidently claim that.
Off topic, I would be surprised if Princess Diana was not being eavesdropped by the security services. Far easier than catching terrorists, but quite significant to the reputation and security of the monarchy.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
Peston using 1000 words to ask a 10 word question....
The Neil Kinnock school of linguistics.
Peston hasn't done well in all of this. Ministers were treating him almost as a comedy act at one point. I think it was Hancock that answered one of his blowy questions with just a one word 'no'.
I don't think any of the Journalist have done well, I guess all their contacts effectively burned.
So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark
They have yet to be implemented, so I am not sure how you can confidently claim that.
The experts themselves said that
No, he was describing if no additional local restrictions were applied, which was discussed earlier about additional businesses being closed in different areas. That's part of the top tier restrictions, as he himself says.
The government clearly feels it doesnt have the capital to push restrictions any further without buyin from the local authorities themselves. If you listen to the PM opening the Commons debate earlier, he as good as says as much.
The Tier 2 is actually a marginal relaxation for those areas already under local restrictions, and my guess is that the intention was to move the whole of the North into Tier 3 until Burnham started gathering the locals in opposition. Liverpool seems to have been caught out when the government dropped the rest of the North and is now trying to row back on whatever it said to government in private.
The irony is that, had local authorities been allowed to lead in the first place, many of them might well have followed public opinion in moving faster toward local restrictions. But since the government has kept everything under very centralised control, they clearly don't feel minded to give a discredited government political cover by rubber stamping something being imposed on them.
From the local area POV if you are Level 3 then without argument all sorts of hospitality/night economy activities get paid out at reasonable rates for being closed. If you are at Level 2 they can all carry on but can't make money. For loads of people Level 3 is better.
Subsample alert but the just-out NYT/Siena rustbelt polling seems to suggest a fairly notable shift of white men from Trump to Biden since 2016.
As I have been saying for some time, it is all over for Trump
At least something is going right
Hmm. Have you really being saying that for some time, Big G? I think you first called it on Wednesday, didn't you?
I have never doubted Trump was gone as soon as he got covid and confirmed how much a pratt he is
For me it was the Senate's impeachment hearings. I think that charade not only exposed Trump, but resulted in many non-partisans being disgusted at the Senate GOP's spinelessness.
But Covid. Covid, Covid. Those of the nails in his coffin.
1992: Speed kills - and speed (as in rapid response by Clinton campaign) killed Bush the Elder's re-election
2020: COVID kills - and looks like COVID is killing Trumpsky's re-election
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
What do you mean he’s “taking decisive action”? He’s not taking any action. He doesn’t have the power to. He’s certainly been encouraging people to go on “one last bender” for weeks now though.
So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark
Why national? Everything seems fairly benign here in Hampshire, cases creeping up but nothing to panic about. In many ways it is better to have local lockdowns, the full forces of the State can be brought to bear on, for example, Liverpool. Which is what the Chinese did in Hubei and J think why the Italians are in a relatively good position despite the horror in Lombardy
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
Yes, Khan is going to "decisively" destroy what is left of the London economy. Bold and brave.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
In fairness that's basically how I see things in the country even without a pandemic.
Genuine LOL
*applauds*
I live right in the heart of the er..top bit, and life is going with remarkably as usual in its blissful northern relaxed manner. It was quite a nice summer too and autumn colours just starting. Don't tell anyone.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
Johnson says lockdown "right now" not right, well that's already a backtracking
Maybe a Circuit Breaker is still on the cards.
You can feel something more coming down the line, which they cant mention let alone implement right now.
Bottom line is that we have a weak government, which has blown its own political capital and credibility. Amazing when you think it's less than a year since the election.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark
Why national? Everything seems fairly benign here in Hampshire, cases creeping up but nothing to panic about. In many ways it is better to have local lockdowns, the full forces of the State can be brought to bear on, for example, Liverpool. Which is what the Chinese did in Hubei and J think why the Italians are in a relatively good position despite the horror in Lombardy
Valencia now below 100/100,000 moving slowly down without too many draconian restrictions in terms of bars and restaurants. The whole region isn’t pensioners, with at least three large universities and schools back I do wonder that more relaxed but respected restrictions could be more successful.
Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
Am I right in suggesting that this is the model that got the 2017 UK election result pretty much spot on?
Not quite.
It uses different variables and methodology, because Great Britain and the US have a different electoral geography.
Care to elaborate?
It's a mixture of lower turnout in America (so they have to tweak that more in America, which increases the possibility of errors.)
There's also the issue that in some states you cannot ask mail in voters how they HAVE voted, so that skews the model, particularly in a pandemic world.
As a general rule there's only one or two elections on UK general election, for some Americans there's many more, and the possibility of split ticketing could skew the model, so they have to make assumptions for that too.
We don't have much split ticketing in the UK.
In 2015 I voted Green in the GE and Labour for Newcastle City Council. 😊
If you're really lucky in America, next month you'll have votes for President, Senate, Congressional, Governor, State Houses/Senate races.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Maybe Sadiq is smart enough to see the benefits of a bit of pre-emptive action to avoid London's upward trajectory matching those in the north? I rather think that local leaders in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle, Sheffield, and Nottingham will now be thinking that decisive action should have happened sooner - the trajectory's been clear for a few weeks now. London is probably just a few weeks behind.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
I rather disagree. He's trying to be seen to want others to take action now which will be expensive, but certainly won't be above what might be needed. He's basically making a totally safe play in midfield and trying to make it look decisive.
When the shit was hitting the fan in March he was nowhere, and I'll bet rather heavily he'll be nowhere should difficult decisions need to be taken in the months ahead. It may well be this is simple and sensible politics from him, but I think he's actually just not up to the big decisions. Either way he's winning no prizes.
FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know
James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.
Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan
I think Iowa might be back in play again - there have been a string of poor polls for Joni Ernst of late.
My current "will flip" states are:
Arizona and Colorado. (And Alabama, of course.)
There are then two or three states which are now probables:
Iowa, Maine
Then there are the possibles:
Michigan, Georgia (x2), North Carolina
And then the theoreticals:
Montana, South Carolina Maybe Kansas or Kentucky if it's an extraordinarily bad night for the Republicans
My best guess right now is that Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Maine will go Dem, while Alabama goes Republican. I'd then expect one or two of my "possibles" to flip.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
The government clearly feels it doesnt have the capital to push restrictions any further without buyin from the local authorities themselves. If you listen to the PM opening the Commons debate earlier, he as good as says as much.
The Tier 2 is actually a marginal relaxation for those areas already under local restrictions, and my guess is that the intention was to move the whole of the North into Tier 3 until Burnham started gathering the locals in opposition. Liverpool seems to have been caught out when the government dropped the rest of the North and is now trying to row back on whatever it said to government in private.
The irony is that, had local authorities been allowed to lead in the first place, many of them might well have followed public opinion in moving faster toward local restrictions. But since the government has kept everything under very centralised control, they clearly don't feel minded to give a discredited government political cover by rubber stamping something being imposed on them.
From the local area POV if you are Level 3 then without argument all sorts of hospitality/night economy activities get paid out at reasonable rates for being closed. If you are at Level 2 they can all carry on but can't make money. For loads of people Level 3 is better.
Local authorities have a vested interest and local knowledge to really enforce and clamp down on non compliant business activity. They can leave responsible businesses alone and go in hard on those who don’t bother. I’m sure the local approach works far better in encouraging enforcement, only holding back national override as a backstop.
The national law/guidance approach is just a blunt instrument, not allowing for variation for local and business specific circumstances and suffers from lack of populace buyin. And for all that people talk of local govt not having the resources - they could have been provided with the resources at a fraction of the cost wasted so far.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
The lack of low makes sense, to avoid complacency. As for the very high state, doesn't it make sense that's the level at which localised restrictions can be used in a targeted fashion? Less need for that at the lower levels.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
Remind me.
What action has Khan taken
Remind me, is Health devolved to the Mayor of London?
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
There is no evidence we’re close to achieving herd immunity.
Regardless, Starmer is playing a game and I can’t see the payoff currently.
Actually there is, London is already proof that there is some level of herd immunity. We just had tens of thousands of students from all over the country come to London and yet no major outbreaks, some smaller ones but nothing like what we're seeing in the North.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
I was shocked and stressed by the 7 pm government presentation. These are difficult times and it’s inevitable that the government’s announcements add to our worries.
But Rishi Sunak has tipped me into another level of stress with his, “Thanks PM”, schtick. Since when was this an appropriate way to address the highest elected person in our democracy?
Sunak has become “Will” from “The Inbetweeners” when he addresses the headmaster with, “”Thanks Phil”.
I now need to go and lie down now. Breathe slowly, calmly, deeply. It will be alright.
Am I right in suggesting that this is the model that got the 2017 UK election result pretty much spot on?
Not quite.
It uses different variables and methodology, because Great Britain and the US have a different electoral geography.
Care to elaborate?
It's a mixture of lower turnout in America (so they have to tweak that more in America, which increases the possibility of errors.)
There's also the issue that in some states you cannot ask mail in voters how they HAVE voted, so that skews the model, particularly in a pandemic world.
As a general rule there's only one or two elections on UK general election, for some Americans there's many more, and the possibility of split ticketing could skew the model, so they have to make assumptions for that too.
We don't have much split ticketing in the UK.
In 2015 I voted Green in the GE and Labour for Newcastle City Council. 😊
If you're really lucky in America, next month you'll have votes for President, Senate, Congressional, Governor, State Houses/Senate races.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
For the first two levels things are straight forward. It gets a little more complicated in the higher tier, because you have to look at what additional restrictions are in place at a local level. Quite why that is confusing is beyond me.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
For the first two levels things are straight forward. It gets a little more complicated in the higher tier, because you have to look at what additional restrictions are in place at a local level. Quite why that is confusing is beyond me.
Thanks for agreeing with me finally that it's not as simple as you thought.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
For the first two levels things are straight forward. It gets a little more complicated in the higher tier, because you have to look at what additional restrictions are in place at a local level. Quite why that is confusing is beyond me.
What is confusing is that what needs to be done, what the government thinks needs to be done, what the government says needs to be done, what the government intends to do and what the government likely ends up doing are all different.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
For the first two levels things are straight forward. It gets a little more complicated in the higher tier, because you have to look at what additional restrictions are in place at a local level. Quite why that is confusing is beyond me.
Thanks for agreeing with me finally that it's not as easy as you thought.
I don't agree that they are confusing and hard to understand. Just because you have to actually read something doesn't make it confusing.
There is no evidence we’re close to achieving herd immunity.
Regardless, Starmer is playing a game and I can’t see the payoff currently.
Actually there is, London is already proof that there is some level of herd immunity. We just had tens of thousands of students from all over the country come to London and yet no major outbreaks, some smaller ones but nothing like what we're seeing in the North.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
Please provide some links. Khan presumably has the data and does not agree.
Unfortunately he can't just lockdown London since he doesn't have the powers but asking for decisive action to be taken by HMG is the right approach now.
I rather disagree. He's trying to be seen to want others to take action now which will be expensive, but certainly won't be above what might be needed. He's basically making a totally safe play in midfield and trying to make it look decisive.
When the shit was hitting the fan in March he was nowhere, and I'll bet rather heavily he'll be nowhere should difficult decisions need to be taken in the months ahead. It may well be this is simple and sensible politics from him, but I think he's actually just not up to the big decisions. Either way he's winning no prizes.
This is one of those occasions where the politics of being London Mayor come into play.
The position is a curiousity - superficially, it's very powerful and is extremely high profile but at the same time it is as powerful or lacking in power as the incumbent wants at any given time.
All the holders of the job have understood they can argue for something and when it doesn't happen they can turn round and use the incumbent Government as a whipping boy.
The tension between the local centralisation of power within the Mayor's office and the national centralisation of power within 10 Downing Street is clearly evident.
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
For the first two levels things are straight forward. It gets a little more complicated in the higher tier, because you have to look at what additional restrictions are in place at a local level. Quite why that is confusing is beyond me.
Thanks for agreeing with me finally that it's not as easy as you thought.
I don't agree that they are confusing and hard to understand. Just because you have to actually read something doesn't make it confusing.
It's not just me who is saying it's confusing and difficult to understand now - but that's ok we can continue to agree to disagree. Let's wait for some polling, if I am wrong I'll be happy to say so as I always do.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.
Please provide some links.
This comes from paid for research for the bank's own reporting. Take it how you want. 🤷♂️
I was shocked and stressed by the 7 pm government presentation. These are difficult times and it’s inevitable that the government’s announcements add to our worries.
But Rishi Sunak has tipped me into another level of stress with his, “Thanks PM”, schtick. Since when was this an appropriate way to address the highest elected person in our democracy?
Sunak has become “Will” from “The Inbetweeners” when he addresses the headmaster with, “”Thanks Phil”.
I now need to go and lie down now. Breathe slowly, calmly, deeply. It will be alright.
What's wrong with "Thanks PM"?
Would you prefer if he said "Thanks Boris"?
Yeah seems an odd thing to get annoyed about. Thanks Boris isn't at all professional, he is Mr Johnson or Johnson in our context, he is not referred to by his first name.
The government clearly feels it doesnt have the capital to push restrictions any further without buyin from the local authorities themselves. If you listen to the PM opening the Commons debate earlier, he as good as says as much.
The Tier 2 is actually a marginal relaxation for those areas already under local restrictions, and my guess is that the intention was to move the whole of the North into Tier 3 until Burnham started gathering the locals in opposition. Liverpool seems to have been caught out when the government dropped the rest of the North and is now trying to row back on whatever it said to government in private.
The irony is that, had local authorities been allowed to lead in the first place, many of them might well have followed public opinion in moving faster toward local restrictions. But since the government has kept everything under very centralised control, they clearly don't feel minded to give a discredited government political cover by rubber stamping something being imposed on them.
It depends where you are in The North and what you do as to whether Tier 2 is a tightening or a slackening. For Bradford, Leeds, etc it seems that we can now meet in gardens (slackening) but can no longer meet in pubs or eateries (tightening). In the North East the pub restrictions are already in place so they only see the slackening.
Let's see how long until we are promoted to Tier 3.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.
Please provide some links.
This comes from paid for research for the bank's own reporting. Take it how you want. 🤷♂️
It's disappointing you can't provide any links though, it would be interesting to read.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.
The government clearly feels it doesnt have the capital to push restrictions any further without buyin from the local authorities themselves. If you listen to the PM opening the Commons debate earlier, he as good as says as much.
The Tier 2 is actually a marginal relaxation for those areas already under local restrictions, and my guess is that the intention was to move the whole of the North into Tier 3 until Burnham started gathering the locals in opposition. Liverpool seems to have been caught out when the government dropped the rest of the North and is now trying to row back on whatever it said to government in private.
The irony is that, had local authorities been allowed to lead in the first place, many of them might well have followed public opinion in moving faster toward local restrictions. But since the government has kept everything under very centralised control, they clearly don't feel minded to give a discredited government political cover by rubber stamping something being imposed on them.
It depends where you are in The North and what you do as to whether Tier 2 is a tightening or a slackening. For Bradford, Leeds, etc it seems that we can now meet in gardens (slackening) but can no longer meet in pubs or eateries (tightening). In the North East the pub restrictions are already in place so they only see the slackening.
Let's see how long until we are promoted to Tier 3.
It’s too cold to meet people outside though. I had a coffee with a friend outside a few days ago, and even with a big coat, sitting in the wind is just unbearable for too long.
So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark
Why national? Everything seems fairly benign here in Hampshire, cases creeping up but nothing to panic about. In many ways it is better to have local lockdowns, the full forces of the State can be brought to bear on, for example, Liverpool. Which is what the Chinese did in Hubei and J think why the Italians are in a relatively good position despite the horror in Lombardy
Horse is obsessed with lockdown
Not with people's jobs
Misconception there regarding China. At the start of the year, China locked down HARD everywhere, even cities on the coast thousands of miles from Hubei. Paid off for them of course, now with the addition of strict (and enforced) quarantine rules they're pretty much Covid free.
Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
So we have a three tier system with no lower tier and a highest risk tier which has multiple tiers.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
People constantly attacked me all day for saying it was complicated and stupid and it won't help. Looks I was absolutely right, I expected no clarity from the worst Government we've had.
For the first two levels things are straight forward. It gets a little more complicated in the higher tier, because you have to look at what additional restrictions are in place at a local level. Quite why that is confusing is beyond me.
Why it might be confusing? We have not yet seen the legislation which adds to this list so far:
There is no evidence we’re close to achieving herd immunity.
Regardless, Starmer is playing a game and I can’t see the payoff currently.
Actually there is, London is already proof that there is some level of herd immunity. We just had tens of thousands of students from all over the country come to London and yet no major outbreaks, some smaller ones but nothing like what we're seeing in the North.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
Please provide some links. Khan presumably has the data and does not agree.
Unfortunately he can't just lockdown London since he doesn't have the powers but asking for decisive action to be taken by HMG is the right approach now.
Khan is rubbish and he wants to look like he's doing something. He also probably doesn't understand the science in the same way Boris doesn't, he's a useless politician.
The publicly available data had antibody presence at 17% in London for the middle of August fwiw. The reports I've seen use the Imperial university data which is a smaller scale study for antibodies but as I said just now, it looked like 20% city wide with a band of 10-40% depending on the borough. It's not a huge surprise in a city where the main mode of transportation is squeezing as many people as possible into a tiny tin can.
Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
He wants to look like he is doing something. It's the same idiotic method of policy making that led to the pointless 10pm closing time.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.
I'll ignore it, then.
It's going to be in the right ballpark, given this (although 'up to' is a bit of a cop out):
Public Health England’s surveillance studies estimated that up to 17.5 percent of Londoners had caught the virus by late June.
In contrast, separate estimates suggest that only between 5 percent and 7 percent of the UK population overall has been infected.
In some parts of the UK it is as low as 3 percent - suggesting that as a nation we are far off reaching heard immunity levels, which must sit between 60 percent and 80 percent.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Khan is doing what the Government has failed to do and taking decisive action early. That's the right approach, I just wish Johnson had the balls to do the same, in one direction or the other.
Remind me.
What action has Khan taken
Remind me, is Health devolved to the Mayor of London?
There is no evidence we’re close to achieving herd immunity.
Regardless, Starmer is playing a game and I can’t see the payoff currently.
Actually there is, London is already proof that there is some level of herd immunity. We just had tens of thousands of students from all over the country come to London and yet no major outbreaks, some smaller ones but nothing like what we're seeing in the North.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
Please provide some links. Khan presumably has the data and does not agree.
Unfortunately he can't just lockdown London since he doesn't have the powers but asking for decisive action to be taken by HMG is the right approach now.
Khan is rubbish and he wants to look like he's doing something. He also probably doesn't understand the science in the same way Boris doesn't, he's a useless politician.
The publicly available data had antibody presence at 17% in London for the middle of August fwiw. The reports I've seen use the Imperial university data which is a smaller scale study for antibodies but as I said just now, it looked like 20% city wide with a band of 10-40% depending on the borough. It's not a huge surprise in a city where the main mode of transportation is squeezing as many people as possible into a tiny tin can.
I know you hate Khan - but I think he's a solid 5/10. Not great, not terrible, solidly rubbish. Leagues above Johnson though.
I simply don't buy this idea London is anywhere close to herd immunity I am afraid, higher than the rest of the country, yes. But nowhere close to the levels needed.
To achieve herd immunity that means thousands of more cases and deaths. Khan is not prepared to allow that to happen and I don't want to see that either.
I rather disagree. He's trying to be seen to want others to take action now which will be expensive, but certainly won't be above what might be needed. He's basically making a totally safe play in midfield and trying to make it look decisive.
When the shit was hitting the fan in March he was nowhere, and I'll bet rather heavily he'll be nowhere should difficult decisions need to be taken in the months ahead. It may well be this is simple and sensible politics from him, but I think he's actually just not up to the big decisions. Either way he's winning no prizes.
This is one of those occasions where the politics of being London Mayor come into play.
The position is a curiousity - superficially, it's very powerful and is extremely high profile but at the same time it is as powerful or lacking in power as the incumbent wants at any given time.
All the holders of the job have understood they can argue for something and when it doesn't happen they can turn round and use the incumbent Government as a whipping boy.
The tension between the local centralisation of power within the Mayor's office and the national centralisation of power within 10 Downing Street is clearly evident.
Yep.
Anyway Khan nor anyone else is leading by shining example. Everyone is trying though.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
An estimate I saw for London was about 25%. Pulled out of my arse, of course.
Less than 15% IMO, a long way off herd immunity. Imperial calculated London at 13% in August.
Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.
The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.
The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."
I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
Well the briefing from Sadiq is that it’s coming in the next couple of days. He’s really gung ho and at some point the Govt will give in to his special pleading.
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
The virus is hitting too many immune host bodies in London. Sadiq doesn't understand the science behind it.
It's interesting if London has reached effective herd immunity. Do you know what the current sero-positive rates are?
I've heard 20% is the figure city wide, but some areas are as high as 40% and others as low as 10%.
Please provide some links.
This comes from paid for research for the bank's own reporting. Take it how you want. 🤷♂️
It's disappointing you can't provide any links though, it would be interesting to read.
Tbf, the report doesn't provide the source data either just a paragraph on immunity levels and that the data is provided from a serology study conducted by a major London university (Imperial because I know they are doing one, my sister took part as an employee).
Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
My question from the last thread... Is it to protect the NHS, save lives, again? Until Spring? Boris was distinctly non-committal regarding the possibility of a vaccine in the commons earlier, so presumably we're not hanging all our hopes on that anymore.
There was a piece I posted a link to the other day about the most important man in America on election night: Fox News voting data analyst.
If I can find it again I will be repost. From memory it was reassuring, he has no intention of calling anything too soon and he wont be lent on by Fox's owners and so on.
Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
He wants to look like he is doing something. It's the same idiotic method of policy making that led to the pointless 10pm closing time.
Khan is the worst major politician in Britain. Just completely useless, lifeless, clueless. He is presiding over a world city in collapse. He should be out there, visible, energetic, combative, optimistic, the stuff Boris used to do so well as mayor (whatever you thought of his politics)
That is the job of London mayor. You don't have much else to do, apart from run the trains, but you ARE a figurehead and you provide leadership, and brio, and you cheer people up.
Burnham does it well for Manchester. He fights for his city. He is high profile.
Khan is just invisible, and whenever you do see him, he is this pathetic, whiny little puppet of a man.
Of course Khan can’t take the actions himself directly but he’s doing the next best thing, asking for the Government to help. That is actually doing something.
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
He has been calling for a London lockdown for weeks. I’m not sure for what purpose though. He was calling for it when needed numbers were very low. He’s calling for it now when they’re a bit higher. Hospitalisation haven’t moved much. We’re not approaching NHS overload and we’re not activating the Nightingale. But I don’t see what the endgame is? So we lockdown. For what? To get cases down a bit? And then what? “Lockdown” has to have a purpose, when it costs so much.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
He wants to look like he is doing something. It's the same idiotic method of policy making that led to the pointless 10pm closing time.
Khan is the worst major politician in Britain. Just completely useless, lifeless, clueless. He is presiding over a world city in collapse. He should be out there, visible, energetic, combative, optimistic, the stuff Boris used to do so well as mayor (whatever you thought of his politics)
That is the job of London mayor. You don't have much else to do, apart from run the trains, but you ARE a figurehead and you provide leadership, and brio, and you cheer people up.
Burnham does it well for Manchester. He fights for his city. He is high profile.
Khan is just invisible, and whenever you do see him, he is this pathetic, whiny little puppet of a man.
ROFL you were saying Priti Patel was typical London yesterday Sean.
Comments
There’s still nothing massively remarkable about the London figures in general, be it cases, hospitalisation or deaths. Boroughs seem to basically changing places as “hotspots” every couple of weeks (perhaps with a general drift upwards - but that could be testing numbers related). Leaving aside the “university + GP home address issue)
Edit - that is, ‘Medium’ although how you have ‘medium’ without ‘low’ is beyond me.
*applauds*
I don't think any of the Journalist have done well, I guess all their contacts effectively burned.
https://youtu.be/eZUa5k_VIZg
Bottom line is that we have a weak government, which has blown its own political capital and credibility. Amazing when you think it's less than a year since the election.
On the spreads is looking good. I sold Trump at 245 on Spreadex.
What action has Khan taken
Regardless, Starmer is playing a game and I can’t see the payoff currently.
Gather ye Rose-buds while ye may,
Old Time is still a-flying:
And this same flower that smiles to day,
To morrow will be dying.
The glorious Lamp of Heaven, the Sun,
The higher he's a getting;
The sooner will his Race be run,
And neerer he's to Setting.
That Age is best, which is the first,
When Youth and Blood are warmer;
But being spent, the worse, and worst
Times, still succeed the former.
Then be not coy, but use your time;
And while ye may, go marry:
For having lost but once your prime,
You may forever tarry
Not with people's jobs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-54512783
He wants a London lockdown and however much it pains me to say it, he’s right.
When the shit was hitting the fan in March he was nowhere, and I'll bet rather heavily he'll be nowhere should difficult decisions need to be taken in the months ahead. It may well be this is simple and sensible politics from him, but I think he's actually just not up to the big decisions. Either way he's winning no prizes.
My current "will flip" states are:
Arizona and Colorado. (And Alabama, of course.)
There are then two or three states which are now probables:
Iowa, Maine
Then there are the possibles:
Michigan, Georgia (x2), North Carolina
And then the theoreticals:
Montana, South Carolina
Maybe Kansas or Kentucky if it's an extraordinarily bad night for the Republicans
My best guess right now is that Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Maine will go Dem, while Alabama goes Republican. I'd then expect one or two of my "possibles" to flip.
And yesterday we were laughing about a blue and purple traffic light system.
The national law/guidance approach is just a blunt instrument, not allowing for variation for local and business specific circumstances and suffers from lack of populace buyin. And for all that people talk of local govt not having the resources - they could have been provided with the resources at a fraction of the cost wasted so far.
The virus is running into too many potential hosts which are immune, especially among those who are likely to be out in the community.
How would people react if told their region was "LOW" risk?! Whoah! Go out and party!
Nowhere is Britain is low risk, right now, and HMG is correct to reject the label
Would you prefer if he said "Thanks Boris"?
Unfortunately he can't just lockdown London since he doesn't have the powers but asking for decisive action to be taken by HMG is the right approach now.
The position is a curiousity - superficially, it's very powerful and is extremely high profile but at the same time it is as powerful or lacking in power as the incumbent wants at any given time.
All the holders of the job have understood they can argue for something and when it doesn't happen they can turn round and use the incumbent Government as a whipping boy.
The tension between the local centralisation of power within the Mayor's office and the national centralisation of power within 10 Downing Street is clearly evident.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315733803818778631
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735596103589889
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1315735597017952256
Let's see how long until we are promoted to Tier 3.
It is quite easy for nearly everybody to be above average if a variable is is asymmetrically distributed.
Apologies - did you answer my question on shutting schools earlier?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ne4zhPYAZK8G867D1Iz0Gg2ZJFLGmF2K/view
Perhaps you could try a simple unconfused explication of Section 5 of the latest version of the HP(CR)(No 2)Regs 2020.
The publicly available data had antibody presence at 17% in London for the middle of August fwiw. The reports I've seen use the Imperial university data which is a smaller scale study for antibodies but as I said just now, it looked like 20% city wide with a band of 10-40% depending on the borough. It's not a huge surprise in a city where the main mode of transportation is squeezing as many people as possible into a tiny tin can.
Public Health England’s surveillance studies estimated that up to 17.5 percent of Londoners had caught the virus by late June.
In contrast, separate estimates suggest that only between 5 percent and 7 percent of the UK population overall has been infected.
In some parts of the UK it is as low as 3 percent - suggesting that as a nation we are far off reaching heard immunity levels, which must sit between 60 percent and 80 percent.
As long as Trump can't claim victory on the night, waiting for the ballots is fine...
I simply don't buy this idea London is anywhere close to herd immunity I am afraid, higher than the rest of the country, yes. But nowhere close to the levels needed.
To achieve herd immunity that means thousands of more cases and deaths. Khan is not prepared to allow that to happen and I don't want to see that either.
Anyway Khan nor anyone else is leading by shining example. Everyone is trying though.
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results
I think the only city approaching herd immunity is Manaus in Brazil, at around 60%.
Had the same MacBook Pro for 7 years.
If I can find it again I will be repost. From memory it was reassuring, he has no intention of calling anything too soon and he wont be lent on by Fox's owners and so on.
That is the job of London mayor. You don't have much else to do, apart from run the trains, but you ARE a figurehead and you provide leadership, and brio, and you cheer people up.
Burnham does it well for Manchester. He fights for his city. He is high profile.
Khan is just invisible, and whenever you do see him, he is this pathetic, whiny little puppet of a man.