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Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724

    If your point is that electoral logic compelled it, then it just shows that the Tories were in the weaker negotiating position. They needed the Lib Dems.
    My point is that out of government, while remaining pure, they could have achieved nothing.

    It is every political party's aim to achieve things. The LDs achieved things but of course had to compromise.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031



    Since August in Paris mask wearing has been required in all outdoor and indoor public areas. They are about to go into full lockdown because of the huge increase in cases there. How does this real world example show that mask wearing is helping?

    It doesn't.

    But equally, it doesn't show the contrary either.

    Belt up and learn some logic.
  • We are being told this is the new normal. We are being conditioned by some to accept things as they are. People who are unemployed are being told to retrain as windfarm engineers.

    That's where we are. And that is where we are staying. Do you see a time when we are 'out' of this. Because I really can't.
    Yes I do. There should be a vaccine, or better testing, or better treatments soon.

    I don't see a return to normal without any of that. Even if the Government said "we give up, all restrictions are lifted, do what you want" the economic crisis would still be there.

    I support people taking responsibility for their own actions but don't pretend it would be a return to normal. It won't. Normal isn't an option now.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    The irony is that the tuition fee regime post coalition is much more progressive than the old regime.

    I paid the 3k fees (I think I was the last year), and I would have been much better off paying the 9k fees.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,788
    kinabalu said:

    Ok - but when you're back I'd be interested to hear how big the Donald J Trump outright win odds (currently 2/1) would need to be to iyo represent a value bet.

    @MrEd
    To be fair, he'd already indicated interest in the Betfair odds on Trump Electoral Votes 270-299 at 9.4
    If you do think Trump might squeak a win, those look like exceptional value.

    Of course you're not covered for the tie, which falls in the 240-269 band, but you could always look at the option of Biden 240-269.

    Be aware that both markets go in play on election day, and appear to be contingent on the respective candidate contesting the election, otherwise they will be voided.
  • TOPPING said:

    My point is that out of government, while remaining pure, they could have achieved nothing.

    It is every political party's aim to achieve things. The LDs achieved things but of course had to compromise.
    If you think trebling tuition fees when they pledged to abolish them is a "compromise" then the message to voters is if you don't want compromises like that then vote for a party that can win a majority.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    For me, the greatest thing you can strip a person of, the very very greatest thing, is their youth. Their golden time. Their best time.

    especially when its to prolong your life beyond an age incredibly few people in history ever go to.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Seriously you can't see the point? really? we are destroying countless young lives for this for decades, young people between the ages of 16 and 35 face the worst outlook since our boys went over the top at the Somme. and you can't see the point?

    We expect these people to have a rotten terrible youth and still pay for our retirements? what are they, children or bloody slaves?
    Sure, but what does the information that this is not a disease which disproportionately kills the elderly to a significant extent add to the argument?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    There does not seem to be a reason but how on earth Starmer has not achieved a substantial crossover is a mystery

    And who is Ed Davey
    A very successful former energy an climate Change minister, probably with more intelligence than the Entire Tory front bench.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    I am wondering how the Tories have impressed so much as to add two points to their tally. Perhaps I haven't been paying attention enough.
    got them from lib dems and bnp so no change really
  • Yes, remember that they glued themselves to DLR electric trains as well in an environmental protest...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    It's a relief to hear that only 82 year-olds are affected. I didn't know this. Open up everything now in that case.
    There speaks a complete and total moronic half witted idiot ( previous poster I may add ).
  • https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1314529063130861568
    Thats the lack of foreign tourists. Its not just sun-starved Brits deprived of their ability to go to Magaluf thats the problem, its absurdly expensive jumper-starved fat Americans
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Seriously you can't see the point? really? we are destroying countless young lives for this for decades, young people between the ages of 16 and 35 face the worst outlook since our boys went over the top at the Somme. and you can't see the point?

    We expect these people to have a rotten terrible youth and still pay for our retirements? what are they, children or bloody slaves?
    Cuckoo
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859

    For me, the greatest thing you can strip a person of, the very very greatest thing, is their youth. Their golden time. Their best time.

    especially when its to prolong your life beyond an age incredibly few people in history ever go to.
    Incidentally, what do you think of national service?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure, but what does the information that this is not a disease which disproportionately kills the elderly to a significant extent add to the argument?
    Pretty much every disease out there disproportionately kills the elderly. Up til no we have not allowed this fact to affect the futures of our young people. Or expected them to change their behaviour.

    Now we are.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338
    edited October 2020

    If your point is that electoral logic compelled it, then it just shows that the Tories were in the weaker negotiating position. They needed the Lib Dems.
    Initially people like Ashdown saw the shortcomings, but Clegg (a classic Heathite Tory) spied his fifteen minutes of fame, and sold them all a pup.
  • The irony is that the tuition fee regime post coalition is much more progressive than the old regime.

    I paid the 3k fees (I think I was the last year), and I would have been much better off paying the 9k fees.

    For the vast majority of people, the new system is just a graduate tax. Those who do end up earning big bucks, it places a caps on their total repayments.
  • ONS estimating 17,200 cases per day in the week to 1 October. Test and Trace was finding roughly 3/4 of that, so should we estimate that we're finding the majority of cases with Testing?

    Given asymptomatic spread it seems unlikely for us to be finding the majority of cases?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    malcolmg said:

    Cuckoo
    That the best you got? from the lunatic asylum that is the Scottish government?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Dura_Ace said:

    The modular BR90s aren't built to last. The longer spans are only designed to have 150 vehicles cross them before they are fucked. They have to be relatively light, and hence not durable, to be able to transported and placed quickly while being shot at by bad bastards.
    Which is why it would only be a pedestrian bridge.
  • Thats the lack of foreign tourists. Its not just sun-starved Brits deprived of their ability to go to Magaluf thats the problem, its absurdly expensive jumper-starved fat Americans
    Also, oldies buy from there, who have spent most of the last 6 months hiding in their homes.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Thats the lack of foreign tourists. Its not just sun-starved Brits deprived of their ability to go to Magaluf thats the problem, its absurdly expensive jumper-starved fat Americans
    We're going to have a lot of wind farm technician trainees at this rate.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338
    edited October 2020
    Off Topic

    Cardiff based Peacocks stores are shutting. Potential loss of 24,000 jobs, nationally.

    Paging Boris supporters, any retraining ideas?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,788
    TOPPING said:

    My point is that out of government, while remaining pure, they could have achieved nothing.

    It is every political party's aim to achieve things. The LDs achieved things but of course had to compromise.
    You're absolutely right.
    But they chose the wrong thing on which to compromise - and it entirely compromised their credibility for a large number of their supporters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    It is absolutely farcical because his stock of ideas don't even need to work, since they won't be tested unless they're adopted by the Government. He has a blank cheque to write whatever alternative proposals he wants to make, what has he got to lose? If the Government adopts the ideas he can say that he was leading the way first. If the Government adopts them and they fail he can blame Government implementation. If the Government doesn't adopt them he has an alternative to point to saying "you should be doing this".

    Madness. All I can think is that Starmer is is afraid of putting anything out.
    He seems terribly afraid to say anything which might allow him to be associated with any policy choice - as evidenced by the abstentions in Parliament. He doesn’t want to vote for anything that might turn out to be bad, and doesn’t want to vote against anything that might turn out to be good.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    For the vast majority of people, the new system is just a graduate tax. Those who do end up earning big bucks, it places a caps on their total repayments.
    Yup. I'm unlikely to pay off my student loan, so for all intents and purposes it's a graduate tax.

    Under plan 1 I was paying off around £80 a month of my "student loan".

    Under plan 2 I would have been paying off around £25 a month. Thus I'd have an extra £55 disposal income per month. That's a night out!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193
    I have a lot of sympathy with those who point out that the economic cost of trying (unsuccessfully at that) to stop this virus is worse than the cure; that our young will have serious damage to their economic prospects; to their education and will be paying higher taxes throughout their lives to repay the debt taken on to protect our elderly.

    My reservation is essentially Long Covid. A statistically significant number of younger people are suffering long term consequences from this virus including damaged lungs, organ failures and general exhaustion. I fear that the sequelae of this virus are going to be significant ongoing health costs. What I have not seen is an indication of how common this is but death is not the only consequence.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    nichomar said:

    A very successful former energy an climate Change minister, probably with more intelligence than the Entire Tory front bench.
    A very low bar indeed , and I suspect he only just scrapes over it, Lib Dumbs is a far better and more accurate description , they are not Liberal and are not democratic for sure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited October 2020
    The Lib Dems problem is I don't think anybody knows what they stand for now other than Stop Brexit.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DavidL said:

    I have a lot of sympathy with those who point out that the economic cost of trying (unsuccessfully at that) to stop this virus is worse than the cure; that our young will have serious damage to their economic prospects; to their education and will be paying higher taxes throughout their lives to repay the debt taken on to protect our elderly.

    My reservation is essentially Long Covid. A statistically significant number of younger people are suffering long term consequences from this virus including damaged lungs, organ failures and general exhaustion. I fear that the sequelae of this virus are going to be significant ongoing health costs. What I have not seen is an indication of how common this is but death is not the only consequence.

    Im sure its a thing, but do not underestimate the psychological factors here. If relentless propaganda tells a person a disease is serious, they are surely much more likely to see it as such.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The average age of those infected in the second wave already rises to 60 years. The head of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology at the Vall d'Hebron Hospital, Magda Campins, has expressed her concern this Friday that the average age of people infected by coronavirus rises and is already at 60 years.
    In an interview on RAC-1, Campins asked all people over 60 years of age or with underlying pathologies to get vaccinated against the flu since "infection by both viruses can represent a higher excess mortality, especially in people over 70 ".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,824
    Nigelb said:

    To be fair, he'd already indicated interest in the Betfair odds on Trump Electoral Votes 270-299 at 9.4
    If you do think Trump might squeak a win, those look like exceptional value.

    Of course you're not covered for the tie, which falls in the 240-269 band, but you could always look at the option of Biden 240-269.

    Be aware that both markets go in play on election day, and appear to be contingent on the respective candidate contesting the election, otherwise they will be voided.
    My hedges are -

    Exchange back of Trump EC 270 to 329
    Sell of SPIN Biden win with Handicap -110
    Exchange back of Reps to hold Florida.

    Running my Biden EC supremacy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This looks relevant; lockdown is bad (nobody is pretending it isn't bad) but lots of cases of the Rona is worse;

    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1314459119533735936?s=20
    Finally, international organisations trying to work out the relative merits of different approaches in different countries. We need much more of this sort of research, to feed into policy making over the winter.
  • Sandpit said:

    He seems terribly afraid to say anything which might allow him to be associated with any policy choice - as evidenced by the abstentions in Parliament. He doesn’t want to vote for anything that might turn out to be bad, and doesn’t want to vote against anything that might turn out to be good.
    Absolutely which might work if the Government loses support on a "Governments lose elections" basis but not if they don't.

    So far the Tories despite the past year are still over 40%.

    If the Tories collapse then Starmer is basically stood on the sidelines saying I'm here if you need me.

    If by this time next year the health crisis is behind us, Brexit negotiations are behind us and the economy is growing then what will Starmer have?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193

    Im sure its a thing, but do not underestimate the psychological factors here. If relentless propaganda tells a person a disease is serious, they are surely much more likely to see it as such.
    I don't think that is it but I certainly don't discount the mental health consequences of lockdown, lack of socialisation and unemployment. Once again the young will bear a completely disproportionate share of the cost for very little of the benefit.
  • Donald Trump plans to hold a rally on SATURDAY in Florida

    Super spreader in Chief going to expose a load more people this weekend.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MrEd said:

    @malcolmg was right, I would be back but I think it's an important one

    @kinabalu on the Trump odds, I think he will get more of a pounding in the polls in the next week or so, so I am looking for 5/2 or even 3/1 but I will take 2/1

    I mentioned a few days back that one big thing to look out for was the audience numbers for the VP debate and whether they followed the same trends as the Presidential debate, which was down 13% from 2016. My point was that, if the VP trends did significantly better, it would suggests that the public was taking a lot more interest in the VP candidates as potential Presidents and therefore this was not just a Trump vs Biden race but would broaden to a greater focus on Pence and Harris as possible Presidents.

    https://deadline.com/2020/10/vice-presidential-debate-rating-steady-kamala-harris-mike-pence-susan-page-donald-trump-joe-biden-1234593583/

    Well, the audience numbers have come in and the uplift from 2016 has been huge - so far, 59m have been counted as watching the VP debate, making it the 2nd most watched VP debate since 1976 and over 50% higher than the 2016 VP debate. It is even more remarkable when you consider that TV audiences have been declining across the board over the past several years and that the Presidential debate this time only generated a 70m audience.

    My read on this is that punters are now only going to have to think about what voters are thinking about Trump and Biden, but put an important weighting to voters' views on Pence and Harris. My personal view - which many will disagree with - is that Pence is somewhat of a known entity, the interesting one will be how many undecideds will be comfortable with the prospect of a President Harris.

    Again, there is polling on that! @HYUFD has posted plenty of it.

    Here's some https://www.newsweek.com/more-americans-want-kamala-harris-president-mike-pence-ahead-vp-debate-poll-1537260?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1602115144
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Sandpit said:

    He seems terribly afraid to say anything which might allow him to be associated with any policy choice - as evidenced by the abstentions in Parliament. He doesn’t want to vote for anything that might turn out to be bad, and doesn’t want to vote against anything that might turn out to be good.
    Yes. Starmer is beginning to look utterly pointless. Being less crazy than Crazy-F*ck Jezbollah Corbyn can only get you so far. And it has got Starmer this far. But as every passes and he seems entirely clueless as to what to do about the pandemiic, other than say Oh I wouldn't do it like that- strongly resembling the asinine Harry Enfield character - Starmer's "popularity" will fall away.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Off Topic

    Cardiff based Peacocks stores are shutting. Potential loss of 24,000 jobs, nationally.

    Paging Boris supporters, any retraining ideas?

    Covid Marshall’s?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1314529063130861568
    Fuuuuuuuuuuuck.

    Until recently they were headquartered in my home town of Langholm. Their almost entirely reliant on tourist money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193

    The Lib Dems problem is I don't think anybody knows what they stand for now other than Stop Brexit.

    “Too late, too late will be the cry when the man with the bargains has passed you by.”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193
    Sandpit said:

    He seems terribly afraid to say anything which might allow him to be associated with any policy choice - as evidenced by the abstentions in Parliament. He doesn’t want to vote for anything that might turn out to be bad, and doesn’t want to vote against anything that might turn out to be good.
    He's at some risk of making Gordon Brown look decisive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    Off Topic

    Cardiff based Peacocks stores are shutting. Potential loss of 24,000 jobs, nationally.

    Paging Boris supporters, any retraining ideas?

    Not lawyers. I don't want any more competition please.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    If you think trebling tuition fees when they pledged to abolish them is a "compromise" then the message to voters is if you don't want compromises like that then vote for a party that can win a majority.
    Which is exactly what happened in 2015!

    The mistake, as you and others have said, was immediately deciding that tuition fees, the single issue on which they’d based the majority of their campaign, was not as important as electoral reform. That they made the decision on fees before the AV referendum, turned the latter into a referendum on Nick Clegg and his about-turn on fees.

    Then, in 2015, they tried to distance themselves from all their good achievements during the previous five years in government.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    nichomar said:

    Covid Marshall’s?
    "The decision to knock away the props before the job is done now risks a chain of events akin to the 1930s."

    AEP in Telegraph.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193
    Alistair said:

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuck.

    Until recently they were headquartered in my home town of Langholm. Their almost entirely reliant on tourist money.
    They've been teetering on the edge for ages. But as you say their margins are mainly on the tourist tat. Not viable, as Sunak would probably say.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Also, oldies buy from there, who have spent most of the last 6 months hiding in their homes.
    Us oldies must be sitting on a cash mountain, how should we spend it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Alistair said:

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuck.

    Until recently they were headquartered in my home town of Langholm. Their almost entirely reliant on tourist money.
    I always wondered who bought their crap. :p
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Alistair said:

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuck.

    Until recently they were headquartered in my home town of Langholm. Their almost entirely reliant on tourist money.
    What price indy now? Scotland's economy is going to be completely down the shitter in six months time (as will the rest of the UK). And I mean: totally decimated. Raging unemployment, huge deficit, terrible debt, dragons burning down Bute House.

    Good luck selling the massive risk of a Yes to Indy vote in that situation. I suppose there will be some voters who might think Well we're doomed anyway so we might as well be doomed waving a Saltire, and sod the UK Treasury's bail-out money, but I have my doubts they will be a majority.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Off Topic

    Cardiff based Peacocks stores are shutting. Potential loss of 24,000 jobs, nationally.

    Paging Boris supporters, any retraining ideas?

    That's the Edinburgh Woolen Mill, the EWM is parent of a lot of different brands.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited October 2020

    Donald Trump plans to hold a rally on SATURDAY in Florida

    Super spreader in Chief going to expose a load more people this weekend.

    The self isolation period after a positive test in some European countries is 7 days and 10 days here. That seems to be 9 days that he's going out so probably not a good idea, but it wouldn't be questioned in other countries. I would expect him to test negative prior to attending though, although this is Trump we're talking about.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Im sure its a thing, but do not underestimate the psychological factors here. If relentless propaganda tells a person a disease is serious, they are surely much more likely to see it as such.
    What do you think we should be doing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited October 2020

    The Lib Dems problem is I don't think anybody knows what they stand for now other than Stop Brexit.

    Not even that any more, Davey has shifted from Stop Brexit to a close relationship with Europe post Brexit.

    Other than that they are now basically the fiscally conservative, socially liberal party which is no surprise as all but 2 of the top 20 LD target seats are now Tory seats and all but 4 are in London and the South and mainly voted Remain
  • Yes I do. There should be a vaccine, or better testing, or better treatments soon.

    I don't see a return to normal without any of that. Even if the Government said "we give up, all restrictions are lifted, do what you want" the economic crisis would still be there.

    I support people taking responsibility for their own actions but don't pretend it would be a return to normal. It won't. Normal isn't an option now.
    Surely normal for you is just sitting behind a keyboard typing uninformed nonsense on PB 24/7? With a vaccine or without, very little will change for you. You are indeed blessed in your rather strange self imposed bubble! Or perhaps not!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193
    nichomar said:

    Us oldies must be sitting on a cash mountain, how should we spend it?
    Employ young people. Seriously. Gardeners, home improvements, car care, takeaways from Deliveroo, whatever you can afford. Its a moral responsibility right now.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    What price indy now? Scotland's economy is going to be completely down the shitter in six months time (as will the rest of the UK). And I mean: totally decimated. Raging unemployment, huge deficit, terrible debt, dragons burning down Bute House.

    Good luck selling the massive risk of a Yes to Indy vote in that situation. I suppose there will be some voters who might think Well we're doomed anyway so we might as well be doomed waving a Saltire, and sod the UK Treasury's bail-out money, but I have my doubts they will be a majority.
    Given the ONS figures this is one of the only times that the term "decimated" is literally correct at the moment.

    It won't be literally correct in six months time.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Nigelb said:
    Possibly somewhat premature. Germany is now registering near-record daily cases.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/08/germany-sees-worrying-jump-coronavirus-cases-amid-warnings-uncontrollable/

    They may yet endure a torrid second wave, having skilfully avoided the worst of the first
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    In an alternative world, the UKIPification of the Tories would have seen them lose 100+ seats to the Lib Dems. They had the ideal baseline to work from in 2010 but then threw it away thinking that was the best they could do.
    Nick Clegg got the Liberals into government for the first time since Lloyd George, he had far more power and influence on the direction of this country than Charles Kennedy for example even though Charles Kennedy won more LD seats in 2005 than Clegg did in 2010
  • Alistair said:

    That's the Edinburgh Woolen Mill, the EWM is parent of a lot of different brands.
    A lot of shops on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh seem to be either them or virtually identikit tourist tat retail that all seem to stock the same stuff - are those them too?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193
    LadyG said:

    What price indy now? Scotland's economy is going to be completely down the shitter in six months time (as will the rest of the UK). And I mean: totally decimated. Raging unemployment, huge deficit, terrible debt, dragons burning down Bute House.

    Good luck selling the massive risk of a Yes to Indy vote in that situation. I suppose there will be some voters who might think Well we're doomed anyway so we might as well be doomed waving a Saltire, and sod the UK Treasury's bail-out money, but I have my doubts they will be a majority.
    You think that we're going to be decimated, that is 1 in 10 lose their jobs? Such foolish optimism is worthy of the SNP itself.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,243
    Sandpit said:

    Which is why it would only be a pedestrian bridge.
    There are other systems available - and some have been left in place as temporary solutions for decades in other parts of the world.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Given the ONS figures this is one of the only times that the term "decimated" is literally correct at the moment.

    It won't be literally correct in six months time.
    There ain't gonna be a V-shaped recovery in the UK. We are looking at L. A permanent reduction of GDP by 5-10%, possibly worse, depending on the virus and the vaccines.
  • malcolmg said:

    A very low bar indeed , and I suspect he only just scrapes over it, Lib Dumbs is a far better and more accurate description , they are not Liberal and are not democratic for sure.
    Another inarticulate and childish post Malcolm. We can say that without doubt the LDs are rather more liberal than an average hate filled nationalist eh ? Love the way you call others half wits and morons when your own posts are so devoid of any intelligence, but moreover you blindly follow one of the most backward and philosophically bankrupt belief sets in the history of human kind. I await the inevitable torrent of poorly phrased childish abuse!
  • Scott_xP said:
    Boris up and Starmer down

    That cannot be right can it ???
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020

    Surely normal for you is just sitting behind a keyboard typing uninformed nonsense on PB 24/7? With a vaccine or without, very little will change for you. You are indeed blessed in your rather strange self imposed bubble! Or perhaps not!
    You seem very, very obsessed with me for some bizarre reason.

    And my number of posts which is little different to many other users and well below some others.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    edited October 2020

    ONS estimating 17,200 cases per day in the week to 1 October. Test and Trace was finding roughly 3/4 of that, so should we estimate that we're finding the majority of cases with Testing?

    Given asymptomatic spread it seems unlikely for us to be finding the majority of cases?

    The test and trace numbers include cases at university, care homes and hospitals that aren't part of the target population for the ONS survey, so the proportion is not quite that high.

    An effective test and trace system would find many asymptomatic cases by testing contacts of known cases and backwards tracing to find out where they caught it from, and who else caught it from the same source.

    So our current system might not be as hopeless as made out, and provides a basis to be improved upon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    A lot of shops on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh seem to be either them or virtually identikit tourist tat retail that all seem to stock the same stuff - are those them too?
    Do you get out much?

    Peacocks are a discount clothing retailer on every High Street. EWM stores have a presence across the UK too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,193

    Given the ONS figures this is one of the only times that the term "decimated" is literally correct at the moment.

    It won't be literally correct in six months time.
    SNAP!

    (the day is not completely wasted after all)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    There ain't gonna be a V-shaped recovery in the UK. We are looking at L. A permanent reduction of GDP by 5-10%, possibly worse, depending on the virus and the vaccines.
    We are 10% down while people are temporarily locked down (imposed or self-imposed).

    It won't be permanently 10% down.

    A W-shaped recession looks more likely to me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    LadyG said:

    Possibly somewhat premature. Germany is now registering near-record daily cases.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/08/germany-sees-worrying-jump-coronavirus-cases-amid-warnings-uncontrollable/

    They may yet endure a torrid second wave, having skilfully avoided the worst of the first
    Germany still has had fewer cases overall than countries of comparable size like France, Italy, ourselves, Mexico and Iran and also significantly fewer deaths per head than the likes of Brazil, the USA , Canada and Spain
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338
    nichomar said:

    Covid Marshall’s?
    You don't count- Boris supporters only. Good idea though.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    DavidL said:

    You think that we're going to be decimated, that is 1 in 10 lose their jobs? Such foolish optimism is worthy of the SNP itself.
    Here I employ my LadyG rule of Reasonable Worst Case Scenario generally panning out. To me that says 10% unemployment is likely.

    But yes, it could be worse, maybe much worse. We are in an unprecedented crisis, which will have all kinds of spiralling effects that are so complex as to be incalculable; nearly all of these consequences will be negative. What for instance, would be the impact of a major western country defaulting on its debts? It is not impossible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Ferfuxsake, homeopaths, I knew the Great Barrington declaration was a load of bollocks.

    A widely-circulated open letter calling on governments to pursue herd immunity is counting homeopaths, therapists and fake names among its "medical" signatories, leading to accusations that it falsely represents scientific support for the controversial position.

    The Great Barrington Declaration, a letter organised by prominent advocates of herd immunity, claims to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners, as well as more than 150,000 members of the general public.

    Yet Sky News found dozens of fake names on the list of medical signatories, which anyone can add to if they tick a box and enter a name. These included Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums".

    One medical professional on the list gives his name as Dr Harold Shipman, a general practitioner in the United Kingdom.

    Other famous names included Dominic Cummings, who is described as "PhD Durham Univercity".

    Sky News also found 18 self-declared homeopaths listed on the open letter as medical practitioners, despite the fact that homeopathy has no scientific underpinning or clinical evidence to support its use.

    In addition, the letter has been signed by well over 100 therapists, including massage therapists, hypnotherapists, psychotherapists and one Mongolian Khöömii Singer who describes himself as a "therapeutic sound practitioner".

    Public health experts accused the letter, which has been used as evidence for the idea of a rift in the scientific community, of misrepresenting the level of support for the controversial concept of herd immunity.

    Professor Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it reminded him of "the messaging used to undermine public health policies on harmful substances, such as tobacco".


    https://news.sky.com/story/coronvairus-dr-johnny-bananas-and-dr-person-fakename-among-medical-signatories-on-herd-immunity-open-letter-12099947

    Sounds like the great wishful thinking declaration to me. We're fucked till vaccines are rolled out for now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859
    Interesting headline on the Mail at the moment: "SAGE warns England should have had Scottish-style lockdown WEEKS ago"
  • Alistair said:

    Important Style guide information for @TheScreamingEagles

    https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1314388487760678912

    That is how you make the word a plural.

    I've tried my best to make the word dominatrixes more well known, I even used it in a PB thread header once.

    It seems every day new record breaking polls come out implying that the Tories are going win a stonking landslide on June the 8th, whilst Jeremy Corbyn and Labour would suffer less punishment if they booked 400 dominatrices concurrently that night and chose ‘mower’ as their safe word.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    Boris up and Starmer down

    That cannot be right can it ???
    Boris/Starmer cross over coming shortly.

    Perhaps this PB notion that the pandemic chaos is a result of Starmer's failure to write a response plan is gaining traction nationally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited October 2020

    Another inarticulate and childish post Malcolm. We can say that without doubt the LDs are rather more liberal than an average hate filled nationalist eh ? Love the way you call others half wits and morons when your own posts are so devoid of any intelligence, but moreover you blindly follow one of the most backward and philosophically bankrupt belief sets in the history of human kind. I await the inevitable torrent of poorly phrased childish abuse!
    It is true that the LDs at the 2019 GE had the highest average incomes and most graduates as a percentage of their vote of any of the main parties, so the LDs can say they attract the most successful voters now however that also proves you need to attract far more than just voters doing well to win
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Sandpit said:

    What do you think we should be doing?
    All our resources should surely be devoted at those with serious symptoms or who are genuinely vulnerable.

    We could have almost built a moat around every person 75 or over and still spent a couple of 100 billion less, and had an economy that shrank less.

    Why are we spending billions trying to track down people who have no symptoms giving COVID to other people who aren't in any danger either?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Thats the lack of foreign tourists. Its not just sun-starved Brits deprived of their ability to go to Magaluf thats the problem, its absurdly expensive jumper-starved fat Americans
    I am amazed they have 24K workers, I thought all the mills were closed and they cannot have that many shops. Where do they all work.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Boris up and Starmer down

    That cannot be right can it ???
    Captain Hindsight peaked too soon?

    I wonder whether Boris openly standing up to the Let It Rip faction of his own party - by no means the path of least resistance - might not be winning him a few points with a safety-conscious public.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    HYUFD said:

    Germany still has had fewer cases overall than countries of comparable size like France, Italy, ourselves, Mexico and Iran and also significantly fewer deaths per head than the likes of Brazil, the USA , Canada and Spain
    Indeed. In western Europe, Germany and Sweden have done the best (in very different ways). That may change in the 2nd wave, is my point.
  • LadyG said:

    What price indy now? Scotland's economy is going to be completely down the shitter in six months time (as will the rest of the UK). And I mean: totally decimated. Raging unemployment, huge deficit, terrible debt, dragons burning down Bute House.

    Good luck selling the massive risk of a Yes to Indy vote in that situation. I suppose there will be some voters who might think Well we're doomed anyway so we might as well be doomed waving a Saltire, and sod the UK Treasury's bail-out money, but I have my doubts they will be a majority.
    Brexit was not sold on economics.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Scott_xP said:
    That's an argument for greater freedom not less, surely.

    Where are the hospitalisations?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    That the best you got? from the lunatic asylum that is the Scottish government?
    Streets ahead of their counterparts in other UK regions, especially Westminster.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020

    Do you get out much?

    Peacocks are a discount clothing retailer on every High Street. EWM stores have a presence across the UK too.
    No need to be rude, I was just asking a question asking if those were them "too" (ie in addiotion to Peacocks).

    Though for what its worth there is no Peacocks in my High Street. I would have to drive to another town or city to find a Peacocks and have never shopped there personally, in part because they simply don't exist where I live. If I do drive away from where I live it is to the Trafford Centre and to the best of my recollection I don't recall seeing them there either.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sounds like the great wishful thinking declaration to me. We're fucked till vaccines are rolled out for now.
    Indeed, Karol Sikora is a great champion of this.

    https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1272625988514562052
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    Captain Hindsight peaked too soon?

    I wonder whether Boris openly standing up to the Let It Rip faction of his own party - by no means the path of least resistance - might not be winning him a few points with a safety-conscious public.
    Does that mean when he inevitably U turns his value goes down again?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Interesting headline on the Mail at the moment: "SAGE warns England should have had Scottish-style lockdown WEEKS ago"

    Another argument for greater freedom, not less. Again, if it was a problem weeks ago, the hospitals would be full to bursting now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,338

    No need to be rude, I was just asking a question asking if those were them "too" (ie in addiotion to Peacocks).

    Though for what its worth there is no Peacocks in my High Street. I would have to drive to another town or city to find a Peacocks and have never shopped there personally, in part because they simply don't exist where I live. If I do drive away from where I live it is to the Trafford Centre and to the best of my recollection I don't recall seeing them there either.
    Well it is too late to shop there now!
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    Brexit was not sold on economics.
    No, it was sold on emotions and feelings at a time of relative global stability, when some people were feeling disgruntled at missing out on perceived national success.

    This pandemic will impact everyone, mostly in extremely negative ways, and the universal perception will be: oh God help make it stop. A very different ambience.
  • That's an argument for greater freedom not less, surely.

    Where are the hospitalisations?
    Have you seen the charts by @Malmesbury ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    LadyG said:

    What price indy now? Scotland's economy is going to be completely down the shitter in six months time (as will the rest of the UK). And I mean: totally decimated. Raging unemployment, huge deficit, terrible debt, dragons burning down Bute House.

    Good luck selling the massive risk of a Yes to Indy vote in that situation. I suppose there will be some voters who might think Well we're doomed anyway so we might as well be doomed waving a Saltire, and sod the UK Treasury's bail-out money, but I have my doubts they will be a majority.
    You half witted nutter, given England will be in the toilet why does it make a blind bit of difference. Instead of being robbed of our last shilling we will be able to spend it where we want. Will be a landslide next year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Indeed. In western Europe, Germany and Sweden have done the best (in very different ways). That may change in the 2nd wave, is my point.
    Germany may see more cases again but I expect their excellent track and trace system will still leave them near the top of the Western league table (and they still have had fewer deaths per head than Sweden as well while doing slightly better in terms of lost economic growth than the OECD average too)
This discussion has been closed.