Germany is also starting to feel the strain on testing capacity, with labs in big cities in Berlin working close to their maximum.
The country has a daily capacity of around 230,000 tests, but there are limits to how much further this can be expanded, an association of German laboratories said.
That is a signal from Pelosi - “don’t release any good news about the Oxford vaccine before the election. Otherwise we will take it as helping Trump, with an October surprise”
Yes. I can't believe believe Trump isn't offering the PharmaCos the world on a stick in his second term, in exchange for some good news now.
If he announced some, do you think anyone would believe him? Lying is possibly the one area where the White House has set new standards.
My point is, the announcement would come from a US drug company, not Trump, in exchange for future favours.
This is all seems odd, and worrying, if you are betting on Biden.
Seems the RNC got upto something dodgy in the 1980s and have been blocked from having observers at counts ever since. A judge has lifted this restriction.
The biggest mistake was not having quarantine for everyone who left the country over the summer.
There should've been no foreign travel for anything except essential purposes. Allowing huge numbers of people to go on their Summer holidays was a huge and unnecessary gamble.
Britain can't cut itself off like New Zealand because of its reliance for vital imports and exports on truckers, but we'd arguably have been much better off in a variety of ways if we'd just told people to do without their ten nights flopping about on a Mediterranean beach just this once.
The biggest mistake was not having quarantine for everyone who left the country over the summer.
There should've been no foreign travel for anything except essential purposes. Allowing huge numbers of people to go on their Summer holidays was a huge and unnecessary gamble.
Britain can't cut itself off like New Zealand because of its reliance for vital imports and exports on truckers, but we'd arguably have been much better off in a variety of ways if we'd just told people to do without their ten nights flopping about on a Mediterranean beach just this once.
Oxford: 117 cases per 100,000 Cambridge: 41 cases per 100,000 (which is less than the surrounding rural district)
(data from BBC website, for week of 29 Sept - 5 Oct)
Go figure.
Social life at Oxbridge is shit.
Whatever. The point is, why are they so different from *each other*?
(And here's another one to throw into the mix: Bristol 65, Exeter 390!)
Exeter students are notoriously sociable. Lots of rural poshos who love to drink.
Exeter is the University for the posh but thick.
Seems a bit of an outdated view. Exeter is regularly ranked a top 15 uni. Bristol is worse for poshos who weren't good enough to get into a top 5-10 uni.
To be serious, I imagine that the proportion of foreign students must be a factor.
If you have a large intake of Chinese, Indian, and Muslim students, they will tend to be less boozy, promiscuous and blatantly sociable than native Brits, thereby dampening any spread.
And on that controversial note, I am heading for the gym. Anon.
Joking aside, that is probably one reason why Leicester Uni is not featuring in this league table. We are seen as a respectable University for Asian daughters to go to*, and an unusually high proportion of students live at home.
That is a signal from Pelosi - “don’t release any good news about the Oxford vaccine before the election. Otherwise we will take it as helping Trump, with an October surprise”
Yes. I can't believe believe Trump isn't offering the PharmaCos the world on a stick in his second term, in exchange for some good news now.
Can we add a couple of 0s on for Boris. I believe he is struggling.
They should double the PM's salary.
It would save the public purse hundreds of millions of pounds all for the price of a few bad headlines.
All salaries in the public sector are capped absurdly low at the moment. Procurers have to resort to all sorts of (expensive) commercial and contractual outsourcing and chicanery to the private sector to get round it and get the talent they need.
Can we add a couple of 0s on for Boris. I believe he is struggling.
They should double the PM's salary.
It would save the public purse hundreds of millions of pounds all for the price of a few bad headlines.
All salaries in the public sector are capped absurdly low at the moment. Procurers have to resort to all sorts of (expensive) commercial and contractual outsourcing and chicanery to the private sector to get round it and get the talent they need.
It's very wasteful and expensive.
One of the issues we have right now is that there's no clear way to progress through the bands. I went in for the pension, but because of my rare as hens teeth skillset I had an offer of 10k more in the private sector. I prefer this job, lots of time outside and I get to do lots of interesting electronic design but in a few years I'm going to be principal engineer level, and I kind of hope the public sector has worked out a decent progression system by then.
That is a signal from Pelosi - “don’t release any good news about the Oxford vaccine before the election. Otherwise we will take it as helping Trump, with an October surprise”
Yes. I can't believe believe Trump isn't offering the PharmaCos the world on a stick in his second term, in exchange for some good news now.
Assuming we put aside Trafalgar's slightly... iffy reputation for polling (as ever, don't discount them, put them in the averages) it's more likely to be mean reversion. The polling has been very stable between 7-9 points for Biden this cycle. It wouldn't surprise me if that reverted back from the 10-11 points we're seeing at the moment.
I would think it not impossible now we could see a popular vote result something like Biden 51% Trump 47% and yet Trump still narrowly wins the EC in the House after a 269-269 result because Biden only picks up Pennsylvania and Michigan and NE02 while Trump holds all his other 2016 states. The election is now effectively all down to Wisconsin at the moment the polls show Biden still ahead there but then again the Wisconsin polls were all wrong in 2016
Penn is closer than Wisconsin.
Not according to RCP. They have it at 5.5% Biden lead in Wisconsin and 7.1% in Pennsylvania. 538 have 7.1% in both.
Pennsylvania is more likely to be pivotal in the sense it's a bigger state (so there are a lot of paths to victory including Pennsylvania).
I understand HYUFD's point, though, is that he thinks Wisconsin is Trump's best bet at a hold from that, Pennsylvania and Michigan and if (big if) everything else stays as it was in 2016 that is enough for Trump (Biden would fall two EVs short of a win, and one of a tie, on 268).
Worth noting that Wisconsin has the worst net favourable numbers for President Trump of all the swing states. He polls worse on favourable/unfavourable there than in Virginia, Maine or New Hampshire.
Wisconsin kicked out one time Favourite and PB hotly tipped for the 2016 nomination (!!!) Scott Walker in 2018.
Bad news for cycling fans - Paris-Roubaix cancelled. But good news - the Giro is still on. Very interesting stage today. Starting in Matera ( the 3rd oldest city in the world) through Taranto (one of the great natural harbours of the world) to Brindisi(another great harbour and one into which I have actually sailed).
Assuming we put aside Trafalgar's slightly... iffy reputation for polling (as ever, don't discount them, put them in the averages) it's more likely to be mean reversion. The polling has been very stable between 7-9 points for Biden this cycle. It wouldn't surprise me if that reverted back from the 10-11 points we're seeing at the moment.
I would think it not impossible now we could see a popular vote result something like Biden 51% Trump 47% and yet Trump still narrowly wins the EC in the House after a 269-269 result because Biden only picks up Pennsylvania and Michigan and NE02 while Trump holds all his other 2016 states. The election is now effectively all down to Wisconsin at the moment the polls show Biden still ahead there but then again the Wisconsin polls were all wrong in 2016
Penn is closer than Wisconsin.
Not according to RCP. They have it at 5.5% Biden lead in Wisconsin and 7.1% in Pennsylvania. 538 have 7.1% in both.
Pennsylvania is more likely to be pivotal in the sense it's a bigger state (so there are a lot of paths to victory including Pennsylvania).
I understand HYUFD's point, though, is that he thinks Wisconsin is Trump's best bet at a hold from that, Pennsylvania and Michigan and if (big if) everything else stays as it was in 2016 that is enough for Trump (Biden would fall two EVs short of a win, and one of a tie, on 268).
Worth noting that Wisconsin has the worst net favourable numbers for President Trump of all the swing states. He polls worse on favourable/unfavourable there than in Virginia, Maine or New Hampshire.
Wisconsin kicked out one time Favourite and PB hotly tipped for the 2016 nomination (!!!) Scott Walker in 2018.
Bad news for cycling fans - Paris-Roubaix cancelled. But good news - the Giro is still on. Very interesting stage today. Starting in Matera ( the 3rd oldest city in the world) through Taranto (one of the great natural harbours of the world) to Brindisi(another great harbour and one into which I have actually sailed).
I’ve been to Brindisi can’t remember much about it apart from them shutting the shops five minutes after we arrived.
If it was up to me I would enable any pub, restaurant, theatre, cinema etc to go into voluntary furlough until the next Spring, paid for by printing money. Whether locked down or not.
Boy did I never ever think I would write that prior to this plague. It goes against everything I normally stand for.
Yup. We aren't going to operate a significant part of the economy properly until we have a vaccine or it mutates itself harmless. So we have two choices - pay them and their employees to be shuttered, or pay the costs direct and indirect of trashing the social and cultural fabric of this nation and having a significant number of people all being told to retrain as boxers.
We are going to pay out anyway, its just a question of how much and in what manner. Unlike in the 80s where the government could comfortably throw industrial areas under the bus and have life carry on as normal for their voters, the impacts of this one directly hits everyone. So its in their best interests to act.
I do get the political challenge for Tories. If you are ideologically against big state and state interventions, how do you retain your ethos whilst spending a trillion quid subsidising jobs that aren't going to be viable for a long time...?
That is far more than inflation, if I was an MP I would turn it down or give it to charity given so many are facing redundancies at the moment, they can easily get by on £81,932 a year for another year or two at least
Assuming we put aside Trafalgar's slightly... iffy reputation for polling (as ever, don't discount them, put them in the averages) it's more likely to be mean reversion. The polling has been very stable between 7-9 points for Biden this cycle. It wouldn't surprise me if that reverted back from the 10-11 points we're seeing at the moment.
I would think it not impossible now we could see a popular vote result something like Biden 51% Trump 47% and yet Trump still narrowly wins the EC in the House after a 269-269 result because Biden only picks up Pennsylvania and Michigan and NE02 while Trump holds all his other 2016 states. The election is now effectively all down to Wisconsin at the moment the polls show Biden still ahead there but then again the Wisconsin polls were all wrong in 2016
Penn is closer than Wisconsin.
Not according to RCP. They have it at 5.5% Biden lead in Wisconsin and 7.1% in Pennsylvania. 538 have 7.1% in both.
Pennsylvania is more likely to be pivotal in the sense it's a bigger state (so there are a lot of paths to victory including Pennsylvania).
I understand HYUFD's point, though, is that he thinks Wisconsin is Trump's best bet at a hold from that, Pennsylvania and Michigan and if (big if) everything else stays as it was in 2016 that is enough for Trump (Biden would fall two EVs short of a win, and one of a tie, on 268).
Worth noting that Wisconsin has the worst net favourable numbers for President Trump of all the swing states. He polls worse on favourable/unfavourable there than in Virginia, Maine or New Hampshire.
Wisconsin kicked out one time Favourite and PB hotly tipped for the 2016 nomination (!!!) Scott Walker in 2018.
Unemployment in Wisconsin last month was 6%, below the 7.9% rate of unemployment across the US, the GOP also still won most US representatives in Wisconsin in 2018 despite losing the House overall
Bad news for cycling fans - Paris-Roubaix cancelled. But good news - the Giro is still on. Very interesting stage today. Starting in Matera ( the 3rd oldest city in the world) through Taranto (one of the great natural harbours of the world) to Brindisi(another great harbour and one into which I have actually sailed).
The most dramatic approach, imo, is into Kotor, absolutely stunnIng.
That is a signal from Pelosi - “don’t release any good news about the Oxford vaccine before the election. Otherwise we will take it as helping Trump, with an October surprise”
Yes. I can't believe believe Trump isn't offering the PharmaCos the world on a stick in his second term, in exchange for some good news now.
If he announced some, do you think anyone would believe him? Lying is possibly the one area where the White House has set new standards.
Pelosi is probably worried by a rumour or some grapevine news. An announcement that the land of Evul Socialised Medicine is about to approve a vaccine would be taken about 300 billion times more seriously than a tweet from Trump.
EPL going for greed...£14.95 per match that isn't already on Sky or BT schedule. So everybody will all go round Bob's house and share the cost and spread the COVID, genius.
Can we add a couple of 0s on for Boris. I believe he is struggling.
They should double the PM's salary.
It would save the public purse hundreds of millions of pounds all for the price of a few bad headlines.
All salaries in the public sector are capped absurdly low at the moment. Procurers have to resort to all sorts of (expensive) commercial and contractual outsourcing and chicanery to the private sector to get round it and get the talent they need.
It's very wasteful and expensive.
Tories for public sector pay rises. Truly this site caters for all.
Can we add a couple of 0s on for Boris. I believe he is struggling.
They should double the PM's salary.
It would save the public purse hundreds of millions of pounds all for the price of a few bad headlines.
All salaries in the public sector are capped absurdly low at the moment. Procurers have to resort to all sorts of (expensive) commercial and contractual outsourcing and chicanery to the private sector to get round it and get the talent they need.
It's very wasteful and expensive.
Hence the comedy about “consultants” - it is often used to get round rigid pay scales, and the social convention that an employee can’t be paid more than a manager
That is far more than inflation, if I was an MP I would turn it down or give it to charity given so many are facing redundancies at the moment, they can easily get by on £81,932 a year for another year or two at least
Well, the Tories have a majority in the Westminster Parliament. You tell yourt chums to vote it down, and to erase their ever so special pension scheme. Like they did for civil servants.
Assuming we put aside Trafalgar's slightly... iffy reputation for polling (as ever, don't discount them, put them in the averages) it's more likely to be mean reversion. The polling has been very stable between 7-9 points for Biden this cycle. It wouldn't surprise me if that reverted back from the 10-11 points we're seeing at the moment.
I would think it not impossible now we could see a popular vote result something like Biden 51% Trump 47% and yet Trump still narrowly wins the EC in the House after a 269-269 result because Biden only picks up Pennsylvania and Michigan and NE02 while Trump holds all his other 2016 states. The election is now effectively all down to Wisconsin at the moment the polls show Biden still ahead there but then again the Wisconsin polls were all wrong in 2016
Penn is closer than Wisconsin.
Not according to RCP. They have it at 5.5% Biden lead in Wisconsin and 7.1% in Pennsylvania. 538 have 7.1% in both.
Pennsylvania is more likely to be pivotal in the sense it's a bigger state (so there are a lot of paths to victory including Pennsylvania).
I understand HYUFD's point, though, is that he thinks Wisconsin is Trump's best bet at a hold from that, Pennsylvania and Michigan and if (big if) everything else stays as it was in 2016 that is enough for Trump (Biden would fall two EVs short of a win, and one of a tie, on 268).
Worth noting that Wisconsin has the worst net favourable numbers for President Trump of all the swing states. He polls worse on favourable/unfavourable there than in Virginia, Maine or New Hampshire.
Wisconsin kicked out one time Favourite and PB hotly tipped for the 2016 nomination (!!!) Scott Walker in 2018.
Shame Walker didn't get the 2016 nomination ...
I spent all of 2015 warning PB he would go no where in Presidential terms.
Assuming we put aside Trafalgar's slightly... iffy reputation for polling (as ever, don't discount them, put them in the averages) it's more likely to be mean reversion. The polling has been very stable between 7-9 points for Biden this cycle. It wouldn't surprise me if that reverted back from the 10-11 points we're seeing at the moment.
I would think it not impossible now we could see a popular vote result something like Biden 51% Trump 47% and yet Trump still narrowly wins the EC in the House after a 269-269 result because Biden only picks up Pennsylvania and Michigan and NE02 while Trump holds all his other 2016 states. The election is now effectively all down to Wisconsin at the moment the polls show Biden still ahead there but then again the Wisconsin polls were all wrong in 2016
Penn is closer than Wisconsin.
Not according to RCP. They have it at 5.5% Biden lead in Wisconsin and 7.1% in Pennsylvania. 538 have 7.1% in both.
Pennsylvania is more likely to be pivotal in the sense it's a bigger state (so there are a lot of paths to victory including Pennsylvania).
I understand HYUFD's point, though, is that he thinks Wisconsin is Trump's best bet at a hold from that, Pennsylvania and Michigan and if (big if) everything else stays as it was in 2016 that is enough for Trump (Biden would fall two EVs short of a win, and one of a tie, on 268).
Worth noting that Wisconsin has the worst net favourable numbers for President Trump of all the swing states. He polls worse on favourable/unfavourable there than in Virginia, Maine or New Hampshire.
Wisconsin kicked out one time Favourite and PB hotly tipped for the 2016 nomination (!!!) Scott Walker in 2018.
Unemployment in Wisconsin last month was 6%, below the 7.9% rate of unemployment across the US, the GOP also still won most US representatives in Wisconsin in 2018 despite losing the House overall
Only because the Wisconsin map is gerrymandered as fuck.
Comments
The country has a daily capacity of around 230,000 tests, but there are limits to how much further this can be expanded, an association of German laboratories said.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8823569/Germany-lines-new-coronavirus-measures-cities.html
They've become worse since England won the world cup in 2003, I think it has exposed that the Welsh are rubbish at rugby and always have been.
From Sean Trende who I rate but I'm sure many don't. For those who love their data and regression analyses:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/09/trumps_path_to_victory_with_a_nod_to_washington_state_144400.html
The Cambridge ones don't get out much. Instead of being PM they end up running the Whitehall IT system.
Seems the RNC got upto something dodgy in the 1980s and have been blocked from having observers at counts ever since. A judge has lifted this restriction.
Trump campaign ready to unleash thousands of poll watchers on Election Day
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/08/trump-election-poll-watching-427008
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1314603356359360514?s=20
https://twitter.com/mmcintire/status/1314589140852318208?s=20
*Though little do some parents know...
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1314297485318217728
Stop making enormous decisions affecting millions on the back of this faulty data. Stop. It.
It would save the public purse hundreds of millions of pounds all for the price of a few bad headlines.
All salaries in the public sector are capped absurdly low at the moment. Procurers have to resort to all sorts of (expensive) commercial and contractual outsourcing and chicanery to the private sector to get round it and get the talent they need.
It's very wasteful and expensive.
https://twitter.com/ICNARC/status/1314560605899153420?s=19
We are going to pay out anyway, its just a question of how much and in what manner. Unlike in the 80s where the government could comfortably throw industrial areas under the bus and have life carry on as normal for their voters, the impacts of this one directly hits everyone. So its in their best interests to act.
I do get the political challenge for Tories. If you are ideologically against big state and state interventions, how do you retain your ethos whilst spending a trillion quid subsidising jobs that aren't going to be viable for a long time...?
'Government may increase the death toll with unjust and insane measures, why are they doubling down on failure?
...Coronavirus policy is being driven by Matt Hancock, a fanatic, and Boris Johnson, a muddled old bumbler.'
https://tinyurl.com/y6pd7tj5
NEW THREAD
Completely understandable for someone with Public Health expertise that is, less so for Dido SERCO etc