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Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com
Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline – politicalbetting.com
Latest Morning Consult poll showing how Biden is doing amongst women compared with Clinton at WH2016 pic.twitter.com/kEyJhfRVaH
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvLZaXdTjG4
But let’s be clear about the nature of the regime.
https://twitter.com/nvanderklippe/status/1314020330789249024
Atherton - Manchester Grammar (private)
Smith - Northwood School (SA) fee paying
Ramprakash - Gayton (State)
Jack Russell - Archway (state, indeed, state secondary modern)
Daffy - Willesden (State)
Gladstone Small - not clear which school he was at, but I think he was privately educated on a sports scholarship in Barbados.
Devon Malcolm - not clear which school he attended in the Carib, but he was at Richmond College in Sheffield (State) after emigrating here.
Phil Tufnell - Highgate (private)
Fraser - Gayton (state).
So yes, you’re right, but it isn’t quite clear cut.
Truthfully, I would have said a much bigger impact than even the sale of playing fields is how much less time talented children get to spend on sport in the state sector. An hour a week, maybe, with 1 member of staff among 30 children who may specialise in long distance running doesn’t help with cricket. Whereas in the private sector it could easily be five or six hours, plus extra coaching from specialists for those seen as especially promising.
Edit - damn, that was a reply to the virus post. Not the CNN censorship.
If one of Trump’s inner circle actually died, would there be any way back from that at all?
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1314447595788554246
I’ll get my coat.
Have a good morning.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/former-gop-presidential-candidate-herman-cain-dies-after-battle-with-coronavirus.html
In a day of chaos Thursday, Trump repeatedly shifted his position on a new plan for a virtual second presidential debate and suddenly decided to back negotiations over a coronavirus economic rescue package he had killed off earlier in the week.
The President's erratic conduct only emphasized an alarming leadership vacuum in a White House hollowed out by sickness as the pandemic takes an ominous turn amid fresh signs that a fragile economic rebound is slowing.
Trump's official physician, Navy Cmdr. Dr. Sean Conley, declared that the President would be fit to return to public engagements on Saturday after completing his treatment. But questions remain over when Trump got sick, who he might have infected and if he is still contagious. And twice in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on Thursday night, the President declined to say whether he has tested negative even as he said he might try to hold a rally in Florida as soon as Saturday night.
"He is not well. We would not want any other person on the planet to do the things he's doing this soon after knowing they're infected," Rick Bright, the ousted director of the government office involved in developing a coronavirus vaccine, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "The Lead."
Bright, the former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research & Development Authority, said that normally, someone who had undergone Covid-19 experimental therapies would be still be in a hospital bed
And Good Morning, everyone,; it looks a bit brighter, weather-wise, here this morning.
Interesting that the "on yer bike" jobs service is offering people careers advice like go retrain as an airline pilot or cinema projectionist...
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/08/boxer-lock-keeper-government-careers-quiz-scorned-users-england
Unfortunately, Christie too has the stamp of a man who might struggle more than others with Covid-19.
overall, the total number of applications received up to 30 September 2020 was 4,061,900
overall, the total number of applications concluded up to 30 September 2020 was 3,880,400
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/eu-settlement-scheme-statistics
How have EU members done with British citizen applications? Funny how many EU citizens want to live in nasty xenophobic “Little Britain” (England, actually, with the overwhelming majority (91%) of the applications).
On the other hand having a trade surplus is an excellent position to be in - and also surprising given how many people have been still continuing to order stuff from Amazon etc online it seems interesting that there is a trade surplus.
We know that dexamethasome reduces the risk of death in sicker patients; until randomised trials are completed, we really don’t know that about the antibodies, even if the clinical signs (reduction in viral load etc) suggest they are beneficial.
I don't agree that the services figure is particularly bad, let alone horrific. Most services are still operating with significantly reduced capacity and that includes restaurants and bars. What is clear is that the new restrictions that we have in Scotland and much of the north of England will drive those figures down further in the coming weeks with severe job implications.
The brutal truth is that our economy cannot operate at its previous level when we have to stay 2m apart, where the capacity of a pub or restaurant or even court house is measured on the fingers of a couple of hands. We are trying to live virtually. Its not working.
Outlook decides to sit down on the job. Won't come back. So Ctrl Alt Del to open Task Manager and kill it that way. Nope. Explorer has now sat down on the job. Can't do anything at all to recover it (after a sit and wait to see if it fixes itself) other than hold the power button to crash the machine and reboot. Took a photo of the work I would lose so that I could type it back in.
A week on Friday. That's (hopefully) the last time I ever have to use Windows.
https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1314447905311387648
https://twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1314436497752289281
Unemployment and personal indebtedness will become a political issue.
As Gillian Keegan put it on QT last night, Coronavirus is not the fault of the Government. I would argue any shortcomings in how they deal with the economic aftershock will nonetheless be seen to be the fault of government.
It may be right, but it doesn't seem logical. Especially since the 2 metre restrictions etc seem to be more vigorously enforced in Services than in Construction.
Construction was allowed to remain open through the summer when many Services weren't too, so why would Construction have had such a heavier decline? It seems very odd to me.
I think that that is a consequence of us having a much higher proportion of our workforce self employed than the average. The better earning self employed have had minimal help from the government and are deeply concerned about outstanding tax bills from better times. It makes us cautious. It reduces our spending and increases our saving.
The EU is less positive than it used to be, but net migration would be negative if more were leaving than arriving. Changes in net migration is a second order derivative not a first order one.
It seems rather to be part of the effort to expand their soft power/global influence. The contrast with the US refusal to participate in the global distribution scheme is marked.
It will be interesting to see which vaccines work best, but it’s highly unlikely that all the Chinese efforts (many of which are based on old but proven technology) are going to be failures at the same time as western efforts succeed.
France announced back in January that it would be creating a new online process for British people to make their applications. Originally scheduled to go live in July, this has now been pushed back to October 2020.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200520/france-to-launch-website-for-post-brexit-residency-cards
It seems to me that if 2/3 of those who have been in contact with someone found to be infected are being traced this should be more than sufficient to reduce R below 1. As that is not happening I wonder how they are defining "contacts" and how quickly those 2/3 are being traced.
Emerson the pollsters are A- rated on Nate Silvers site .
Biden 54
Trump 43
17% of people have already voted there .
I’m not going to be able to unhear Yakety Sax in the background from now on.
Maybe the Lincoln Project could use it.
I spent too much bloody time on here yesterday so this is the only post of the day and then I'm off. First, @HYFUD posted the Florida poll with a +3% Republican lead. Here is an article on it, which claims the pollster got Florida right in 2016 and the scale of Obama's 2008 victory (don't know whether that is true, I haven't had time to check). Biden's rating amongst Hispanics actually looks decent in the poll but it states Trump is winning amongst 45+ and has 12% of the Black vote.
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-exclusive-insideradvantage-poll-gives-trump-3-point-edge-over-biden-in-florida
For @OllyT, the same pollster explains why he is sceptical the polling is reliable. He has a slightly different take from me, namely the problem being that it has to do with the switch to cellphone and polling the same pool but his conclusion is the same, namely polling is less reliable than it was:
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/professional-pollster-polls-do-not-predict-elections
Finally, from Bitzer at North State politics. This is "old" (a week and half ago) but it is looking at the composition of the early returned ballots in NC. HIs conclusion is there is a good chance the Democrats are merely cannibalising their 2016 votes with the returned ballots rather than adding new voters. - at Sep 27, 71% of Democrats who had voted by mail had voted in person in 2016 vs 66% for the state as a whole, and only 21% had either registered in 2017+ or hadn't voted in 2016 vs 24% for the whole state (and 25% for the much smaller Republican number):
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2020/09/nc-abm-ballots-observations-Oct28.html
Have a good day everyone.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/06/british-residents-in-spain-confused-and-alarmed-about-post-brexit-future
So even if we were testing all of those, which we aren’t, around half of infected cases wouldn’t be tested at all.
Add in the days of delay between testing and tracing contacts, and you can see why that’s not the case.
Again this is the consequence of making test accuracy the single most important metric.
Number of tests (which must include testing those who are not symptomatic) and speed of results are every bit as important, and have simply not been given equivalent priority from the start.
My application could only be accepted from August 2019, but the immigration office was actively helping me from May 2019 to get my application together so I could make my application on the first day possible. Within a couple of months everything had been processed in the fast lane and exactly one year ago today I was sworn in to be a German citizen. The stories I hear the other way round are of delays, mistrust and administrative incompetence.
So far the blessed Nicola has been the mother of the nation in Scotland riding high on a wave of approval but I am detecting a lot of opposition to her most recent measures, a surprising amount of it from SNP supporters. I think we are at the limits of what people are willing to accept in terms of limits on our economy. The price is now payable and people are shocked by it. All too soon, as furlough unwinds, they will be appalled. I think at that point the consensus will switch to living with the virus rather than trying to eliminate it.
If so, then they aren't picking up the streets around me. It's like someone is breeding skips out there and the noise is nonstop on a week day: new patios, extensions, loft conversions, driveways, double glazing replacements, kitchens etc etc etc...
BTW good to see women voters beginning to see there might be one or two difficulties with Trump and that he may not be a wholly satisfactory person from a woman's point of view; though there were several large red flashing lights in 2016.
But people will jump to conclusions without sufficient evidence.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-52752656
In Bolton, Hyndburn and Bury, Covid infections have risen more than tenfold. In Burnley, they have risen twentyfold. "
Telegraph (Fraser Nelson)
The management of this is shambolic. And the delays unforgivable.
I'm only hearing it 3rd hand but I have a couple of trusted mates who work in finance and it sounds like armageddon for their finance friends who manage large scale commercial property.
Would it be too cynical to suggest that much of this type of work is not being recorded in the data as it's off the books? And that some of the people doing it are also at the same time still furloughed or claiming self-employment allowances etc.?
The Florida poll is good for him however. Whatever the National result I expect him to perform relatively well in Florida.
Up 7 in Texas is also good for him but it's Rasmussen so judgement is reserved.
Nate Silver's site now has Biden up Nationally by 9.8, a new high. It feels too high to me, and I suspect it is over-influenced by the prolific USC Dornlife outfit, but the general impression is that the challenger is a good 8 to 9 clear on a rising trajectory. It can be turned round. There are plenty of examples of that kind of thing being done elsewhere but it would help if Trump stopped firing at his feet. The recent Yes/No/Wait over the debates didn't help and as for being rude about the fragrant Kamala.....
Laters. Have a nice morning everyone.