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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The challenge for UKIP now is to succeed under First Past t

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:

    Doncaster North:

    Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
    UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
    Con 1,759 (7.69%)
    Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
    Green 792 (3.46%)
    LD 773 (3.38%)
    Community Group 673 (2.94%)
    Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
    TUSC 458 (2.00%)

    Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m
    Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    ToryJim said:

    Anyone watching the documentary on the Kent Police & Crime Commissioner Nicola Murray Ann Barnes?

    Has she been calling local residents "quiet Bat people"

    ;-)

    @kle4 .. Tell my wife "hello" :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    MikeK said:


    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m
    Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.

    Right, so the election in 2010 was:

    Con: 53.9
    Labour 22.3
    LD: 20.0
    UKIP: 3.8

    May as well make a prediction for this poll. Totally without basis, I will guess:

    Con:40
    Labour; 25
    UKIP:25
    LD: 10
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    kle4 said:

    Right, so the election in 2010 was:

    Con: 53.9
    Labour 22.3
    LD: 20.0
    UKIP: 3.8

    May as well make a prediction for this poll. Totally without basis, I will guess:

    Con:40
    Labour; 25
    UKIP:25
    LD: 10
    UKIP ahead of Labour I reckon.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The UK is becoming increasingly a multi-party state and we will continue to see the fragmentation of the old 2 party system.There are 5 parties now.I guess we will end up with about 8.The electoral reform needed to come alongside can be made to work in local government first.I trust local government to make it work.Then maybe there will be the necessary change to the electoral system for parliament.Consensus politics is back in the game and it is coalition building where the future lies with the exception of Clegg who is simply not to be trusted.
    That's what I think after talking to the birds with a quick rub of the crystal balls.
    Interesting article from Tony Travers indicating the extent of the trend.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/41621?utm_content=bufferac9ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:

    Doncaster North:

    Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
    UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
    Con 1,759 (7.69%)
    Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
    Green 792 (3.46%)
    LD 773 (3.38%)
    Community Group 673 (2.94%)
    Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
    TUSC 458 (2.00%)

    Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)

    If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    It's a Survation poll so likely to be very good for UKIP.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?
    How often does this old chestnut come up? Seems like only last week!

    The answer's NO, he does not have to be an MP.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Indeed, I'm a big fan of FDR.
    More than Amy Pond?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    RobD said:

    Has she been calling local residents "quiet Bat people"

    ;-)

    @kle4 .. Tell my wife "hello" :D
    Not yet but she comes across as about as competent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    Charles said:

    More than Amy Pond?
    On a par
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    If Clegg and Miliband both lost their seats I'd laugh my ass off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    corporeal said:

    They young people of 10 years ago? 25-44 is young people?
    Mere striplings.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Christ.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Another against that myth they only advertise the polls if it is good for team blue.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    " Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16% "

    The goat entrails need another stirring.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Christ.
    Get rid of lib dems,they dragging tories down with them ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited May 2014

    If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?
    Technically, I don't think so, although given it is now pretty accepted convention that someone should be an PM, not merely a parliamentarian to be MP, I imagine he would stand down as Labour Leader in that event, although I believe another MP could immediately resign, to provide a seat for him to stand in a quick by-election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    Outlier on the Labour score I reckon.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Presumably an outlier? Can't see there has been that much that has happened recently?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    Christ.
    38% is obviously an outlier for Labour.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    The polls have been all over the place before the Euros. as I said at the time, they will take time to settle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,673
    New Thread
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    EXCL: Survation/Sun poll - Tories on course to win the all-important Newark by-election next week http://bit.ly/1hCPOUS
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080


    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4

    You serious or is this a windup?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sean_F said:

    38% is obviously an outlier for Labour.
    It's roughly where they were at the beginning of the month - perhaps it's just the election fever starting to wear off.
This discussion has been closed.