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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The challenge for UKIP now is to succeed under First Past t

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:

    Doncaster North:

    Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
    UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
    Con 1,759 (7.69%)
    Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
    Green 792 (3.46%)
    LD 773 (3.38%)
    Community Group 673 (2.94%)
    Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
    TUSC 458 (2.00%)

    Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m
    Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    ToryJim said:

    Anyone watching the documentary on the Kent Police & Crime Commissioner Nicola Murray Ann Barnes?

    Has she been calling local residents "quiet Bat people"

    ;-)

    @kle4 .. Tell my wife "hello" :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    MikeK said:


    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m
    Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.

    Right, so the election in 2010 was:

    Con: 53.9
    Labour 22.3
    LD: 20.0
    UKIP: 3.8

    May as well make a prediction for this poll. Totally without basis, I will guess:

    Con:40
    Labour; 25
    UKIP:25
    LD: 10
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    kle4 said:

    MikeK said:


    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 2m
    Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.

    Right, so the election in 2010 was:

    Con: 53.9
    Labour 22.3
    LD: 20.0
    UKIP: 3.8

    May as well make a prediction for this poll. Totally without basis, I will guess:

    Con:40
    Labour; 25
    UKIP:25
    LD: 10
    UKIP ahead of Labour I reckon.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The UK is becoming increasingly a multi-party state and we will continue to see the fragmentation of the old 2 party system.There are 5 parties now.I guess we will end up with about 8.The electoral reform needed to come alongside can be made to work in local government first.I trust local government to make it work.Then maybe there will be the necessary change to the electoral system for parliament.Consensus politics is back in the game and it is coalition building where the future lies with the exception of Clegg who is simply not to be trusted.
    That's what I think after talking to the birds with a quick rub of the crystal balls.
    Interesting article from Tony Travers indicating the extent of the trend.
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/41621?utm_content=bufferac9ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:

    Doncaster North:

    Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
    UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
    Con 1,759 (7.69%)
    Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
    Green 792 (3.46%)
    LD 773 (3.38%)
    Community Group 673 (2.94%)
    Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
    TUSC 458 (2.00%)

    Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)

    If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    It's a Survation poll so likely to be very good for UKIP.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    AndyJS said:

    A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:

    Doncaster North:

    Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
    UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
    Con 1,759 (7.69%)
    Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
    Green 792 (3.46%)
    LD 773 (3.38%)
    Community Group 673 (2.94%)
    Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
    TUSC 458 (2.00%)

    Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)

    If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?
    How often does this old chestnut come up? Seems like only last week!

    The answer's NO, he does not have to be an MP.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Dawning, some BBC bigwig or other reckoned Mandela was the most significant leader of the 20th century.

    As was suggested here, Hitler wins by a bloody mile. Even if you only count 'good' leaders, Churchill matters more.

    I went for FDR.

    He was a lying duplicitous bastard when it came to neutrality in WW2, but he helped us win the war.
    FDR has an extremely strong claim to be the greatest leader of the 20th century. He has an arguable one as the most significant too, though unlike Hitler or Lenin, his claim has to be based on both what he did, domestically and internationally, and also on what he prevented. Had FDR's leadership and New Deal failed, it's not at all inconceivable that capitalism and democracy could have broken down in the States, the consequences of which would have been almost incalculable.
    Indeed, I'm a big fan of FDR.
    More than Amy Pond?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    RobD said:

    ToryJim said:

    Anyone watching the documentary on the Kent Police & Crime Commissioner Nicola Murray Ann Barnes?

    Has she been calling local residents "quiet Bat people"

    ;-)

    @kle4 .. Tell my wife "hello" :D
    Not yet but she comes across as about as competent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Charles said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Dawning, some BBC bigwig or other reckoned Mandela was the most significant leader of the 20th century.

    As was suggested here, Hitler wins by a bloody mile. Even if you only count 'good' leaders, Churchill matters more.

    I went for FDR.

    He was a lying duplicitous bastard when it came to neutrality in WW2, but he helped us win the war.
    FDR has an extremely strong claim to be the greatest leader of the 20th century. He has an arguable one as the most significant too, though unlike Hitler or Lenin, his claim has to be based on both what he did, domestically and internationally, and also on what he prevented. Had FDR's leadership and New Deal failed, it's not at all inconceivable that capitalism and democracy could have broken down in the States, the consequences of which would have been almost incalculable.
    Indeed, I'm a big fan of FDR.
    More than Amy Pond?
    On a par
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    If Clegg and Miliband both lost their seats I'd laugh my ass off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    corporeal said:

    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    First-time voters far happier with UK’s ethnic mix than over-60s

    Poll revealing big generation gap on diversity suggests support for the far-right parties is vulnerable

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/firsttime-voters-far-happier-with-uks-ethnic-mix-than-over60s-9456674.html

    Not exactly the most surprising finding ever published.
    Peter Kellner has pointed out that over 50 years of polling, younger people have been more liberal over immigration and diversity than older people - but, they become far less liberal as they get older.

    The British Social Attitudes Survey indicates that over the past 10 years, the biggest rise in hostility to immigration (and willingness to describe themselves as racially prejudiced) is among voters born between 1960 and 1979, that is, the young people of 10 years ago.
    They young people of 10 years ago? 25-44 is young people?
    Mere striplings.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Christ.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Another against that myth they only advertise the polls if it is good for team blue.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    " Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16% "

    The goat entrails need another stirring.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Christ.
    Get rid of lib dems,they dragging tories down with them ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014

    AndyJS said:

    A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:

    Doncaster North:

    Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
    UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
    Con 1,759 (7.69%)
    Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
    Green 792 (3.46%)
    LD 773 (3.38%)
    Community Group 673 (2.94%)
    Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
    TUSC 458 (2.00%)

    Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)

    If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?
    Technically, I don't think so, although given it is now pretty accepted convention that someone should be an PM, not merely a parliamentarian to be MP, I imagine he would stand down as Labour Leader in that event, although I believe another MP could immediately resign, to provide a seat for him to stand in a quick by-election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Outlier on the Labour score I reckon.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Presumably an outlier? Can't see there has been that much that has happened recently?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Christ.
    38% is obviously an outlier for Labour.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    The polls have been all over the place before the Euros. as I said at the time, they will take time to settle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    New Thread
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    EXCL: Survation/Sun poll - Tories on course to win the all-important Newark by-election next week http://bit.ly/1hCPOUS
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067


    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4

    You serious or is this a windup?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sean_F said:

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 18s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%

    Christ.
    38% is obviously an outlier for Labour.
    It's roughly where they were at the beginning of the month - perhaps it's just the election fever starting to wear off.
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