As the dust settles,Tribune leads with an encouraging message from the Euros that there is a now the possibility of a left-centre-left-green majority though with all coalitions there will be tensions.This should strengthen those who believe in the EU project and make it more relevant to ordinary people.The Sinn Fein gains seems to have passed people by.The Irish elections,which must take place before April 3 2016,I think will not.The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.
The difference is that when someone says there is a Hungarian moving in, I don't immediately assume they will be human trafficking. The Hungarian girl who works for us is a secretary.
A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...
You should have voted Green.
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.
Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?
STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.
But certainly not when it comes to figuring out who has been elected.
We know who was elected in Northern Ireland. That would seem to be the main thing.
And why should the result be decided by how many candidates each party decides to put on the ballot?
It's not. The result is decided by who the voters vote for.
So you prefer d'Hondt to STV. Great. I'm not one for endless debates on voting systems myself. But the idea that d'Hondt is just fine while STV is "nonsense on stilts" is silly.
Could you imagine Tower Hamlets with STV ???????????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.
Fine Gael held their 4 seats in the European Parliament. Labour is obviously suffering greatly but one of the parties recovering is Fianna Fail who initiated the austerity policies.
@OblitusSumMe I wasn't commenting on the method of arriving at the scores, I just thought a majority figure might be useful. I think most people would think 5500 ish would be a pretty good result.
Pragmatic communist is the answer you originally sought. And in answer to your more recent question, as TB (himself a Tory wet) pointed out, claiming to be to the left of the Labour party, then climbing into bed with the Tories was never going to end well.
Edit: My views hold the same value as yours do (in answer to your edit)
As the dust settles,Tribune leads with an encouraging message from the Euros that there is a now the possibility of a left-centre-left-green majority though with all coalitions there will be tensions.This should strengthen those who believe in the EU project and make it more relevant to ordinary people.The Sinn Fein gains seems to have passed people by.The Irish elections,which must take place before April 3 2016,I think will not.The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.
Ireland 2014 Euros (11 seats):
Fianna Fail 22% First Pref. votes 1 seat (-2) Fine Gael 22% First pref. votes 4 seats (No change) Sinn Fein 20% FPV 3 seats (+3) Independents 20% FPV 3 seats (+2) Labour 5% FPV 0 seats (-3)
FF topped the poll across the Republic, but came third in seats (exc. Independents). OK, an STV quirk I suppose!
SF now have four seats across the whole of Ireland (out of 14 total), with their vote share in the Republic approaching that in NI.
Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
Avoid mistakes ......
Quite an ask that.
College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.
Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.
This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.
Pragmatic communist is the answer you originally sought. And in answer to your more recent question, as TB (himself a Tory wet) pointed out, claiming to be to the left of the Labour party, then climbing into bed with the Tories was never going to end well.
But surely you can do more in power than out of power? You agree with Lord O that they should remain out of power to consolidate? V funny aim for a political party.
Pragmatic communist? Bravo! A Deng 1978 third plenum approach. Ie capitalism.
The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.
Fine Gael held their 4 seats in the European Parliament. Labour is obviously suffering greatly but one of the parties recovering is Fianna Fail who initiated the austerity policies.
FF topped the poll but lost two seats (1 only now).
The Sinn Fein gains seems to have passed people by.The Irish elections,which must take place before April 3 2016,I think will not.The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.
I don't follow Irish politics as closely as I might, but I thought it was Labour in Ireland who are taking the brunt of the ire, with the previous government party, FF, benefiting.
Much as I like STV Irish politics is a good corrective for those who think that changing the electoral system will improve politics. All a good electoral system can do is more accurately reflect the political will of the people, which is what I think happens in Ireland.
Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
Avoid mistakes ......
Quite an ask that.
College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.
Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.
This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.
If power is about reneging on your promises to the electorate for a few baubles, then you are not in power, you have sold yourself for a price. Of course, being a good Tory, this is no moral dilemma. Everything has a price as long as profit is in the offing.
Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
Avoid mistakes ......
Quite an ask that.
College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.
Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.
This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.
Fianna Fail 22% First Pref. votes 1 seat (-2) Fine Gael 22% First pref. votes 4 seats (No change)
So much for proportional representation!
Um, one of those very rare instances of STV quirkiness, Sandy!
I was going to make a comment about the wisdom and meaningfulness of only quoting first prefs, while reporting an STV election, then complaining about it not being proportional representation. But I got distracted by the British figures - apparently Labour picked up 49.7% of seats WITHOUT GETTING ANY SECOND PREFERENCE TRANSFERS. What kind of Alternative Vote do the muppets at the Electoral Commission think they're running??
I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this.
Once people have observed what UKIP are actually like, they realise that UKIP are a Worse Than The Above party, rather than a None Of The Above party.
Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
Avoid mistakes ......
Quite an ask that.
College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.
Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.
This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.
Dick Emery on College: “His Huguenot name suggests that he has had some kind of rarefied breeding, and he seems to have enjoyed a rather different background from the usual down-and-out kipper. The humour of the situation comes from the difference between College’s actual status in life, and his refusal to acknowledge his real electoral prospects. He remains a gentleman with cultural pretensions while slumming it with his friend, Nuttall. He retains the vestiges of his aspirant life. with the PM's old school tie, a city trader's bowler hat and a lothario's crumpled buttonhole. And if he met Stodge, a fellow ‘old boy’ from his real school, taking a stroll through the park where College sleeps every night, he would act as though their stations in life were equal, and his misfortunes would become even less real to him.”
Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
Avoid mistakes ......
Quite an ask that.
College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.
Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.
This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.
Well he certainly doesn't need to be taking lessons from the Tories whose response is generally to excuse their racists and homophobes and let them carry on in office as if nothing had happened.
Off topic. I don't know if this has already been commented on, but Matthew Syed in The Times has penned a very powerful article. The events in Pakistan, plus a little first hand knowledge from a close Pakistani friend on forced marriage and family honour, has made me question my opposition to a ban of the burka. It's even got me thinking about the aid budget. Disturbing times indeed.
"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............ These little retreats may seem tolerant and enlightened, a way of embracing people who hold different views; a classic liberal fudge. But they are nothing of the sort. They embolden and shore up fundamentalism. They offer encouragement. And they culminate in the grotesque travesty of a silent minority in Pakistan looking the other way as women are buried up to their waists while members of their own family throw bricks at their heads."
"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............
There's nothing "small" about the battle to allow people to wear what they like. It's an important issue - noone wants to end up like a second-rate France. Isnt forced marriage illegal?
While there are many good points to be made. "Banning the burka" is an infringement on the liberty of any woman who chooses to wear it of her own free will. While it sounds sensible to us, it sets a precedent that we would find abhorrent were it to be applied to other things. (we actually have laws to cover modesty ourselves, ask the "naked rambler")
STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.
I quite like multimember STV myself, it would certainly have enfranchised me when I've been living in hopeless seats. Didn't it used to be called "British proportional representation"? We seem to have invented and exported it, without ever quite taking to it - bit like certain sports I can think of...
I dimly recall that around WWI the House of Commons actually voted for STV for parliamentary elections, but got blocked in the Lords. Though the University seats, which persisted for a few decades after that, did adopt it.
As a complete aside - despite running what must be the most appalling campaign by any political party I can think of in recent history (anyone got any other candidates even remotely close) apparently NI21 won a council seat! Just the one, mind. They're an interesting party - I thought they might just grow into mold-breakers before they fizzled out/imploded/fell apart at the seams/ate their own tail/shot both their feet, their heart and then their brains out. I can imagine the Alliance being keen to pluck up a few of their Bright Young Things.
Is that organisation, or at least some of the folk who've got involved with it, actually going to find a market for their ideas or political identity? Perhaps in 10 or 20 years time I can imagine them being a happier home for the relatively young, educated, more secular and less sectarian youth, than say the DUP are. Or is being wishy-washy and well-meaning without clear political objectives and a determined core vote, just another way to wash up as a fringe party or sucked up into the Alliance? I see the Greens are working hard and starting to carve out a teeny little niche for themselves in NI. They may be biting into a similar demographic?
I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"
UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.
With the US slowing down, and the FTSE near record highs, might be a good time to bet against the FTSE ?
I have no idea how to do that though !
By selling the FTSE 100, or any number of other indices, individual shares, currencies, commodities, etc by means of spreadbetting with IG or another spreadbetting firm.
Obviously high risk with potentially high rewards - certainly IG run free seminars in London and elsewhere (incl in York next month) explaining how their platform works including how to open and close bets, the deposits required, etc.
Sadly the days are gone when the likes of IG Index, Sporting Index, etc operating spread markets on General Elections outcomes, eg one could buy or sell the number of seats each major party would win, etc.
"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............
There's nothing "small" about the battle to allow people to wear what they like. It's an important issue - noone wants to end up like a second-rate France. Isnt forced marriage illegal?
Yes, I believe it is illegal. I've always been firmly against a ban ( I'd advocate a ban on banning things). I've even been castigated by SeanT for my stance on the burka....but Syed's article really has set me thinking, given the case in Pakistan, and a long conversation with a couple of close friends. Maybe I've been infected by ukipism!
(we actually have laws to cover modesty ourselves, ask the "naked rambler")
So we are already prepared to restrict someone's free will in terms of what they wear. So how is the burqa different? Not that I'm advocating banning it myself.
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............
There's nothing "small" about the battle to allow people to wear what they like. It's an important issue - noone wants to end up like a second-rate France. Isnt forced marriage illegal?
Yes, I believe it is illegal. I've always been firmly against a ban ( I'd advocate a ban on banning things). I've even been castigated by SeanT for my stance on the burka....but Syed's article really has set me thinking, given the case in Pakistan, and a long conversation with a couple of close friends. Maybe I've been infected by ukipism!
You're being too harsh on yourself. You've clearly thought pretty deeply about it and the surrounding issues. You haven't called for a ban on the ground of it being "foreign" or "different".
Tricky one, isn't it. Where is the border between wearing a burka willingly and wearing it to conform and wearing because you're afraid of the consequences of not doing so...
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.
I think Oborne is correct here. He's the one MSM pundit that I have most time for.
Oborne very occasionally gets it very right more often he is spectacularly wrong. My opinion of him is tainted by having met the oaf and found him spectacularly lacking in grace, charm or personal warmth.
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.
On the plus side it is good to see a UK political party taking allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female party members by a senior male figure seriously.
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
It's small, but First Mover Advantage, perhaps? One can only hope that it's a section of the electorate that is going to broaden and deepen in years to come. (Though my reciprocal concern is that as demographic cross-over draws closer on that kind of time-frame, it will play more to identity politics and the hardliners.)
Funny how the mainland's Nasty Party, whose grassroots are so often compared to the dinosaurs, is one of NI's little corners of groovy liberalism.
I'm sure the UUP isn't dead yet. The SDLP I'm not so sure about. I sometimes grouch about my political options here, but if I lived in NI and was nationalist-leaning, I think I'd despair. Is there any chance of the SDLP getting gobbled up by a southern party? Or a southern party organising seriously in the north and simply usurping them?
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.
On the plus side it is good to see a UK political party taking allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female party members by a senior male figure seriously.
Most disappointing thing about the current Lib Dem brouhaha in a microcab is their miraculous discovery you can give a Lord a good kicking after all.
Is there any chance of the SDLP getting gobbled up by a southern party? Or a southern party organising seriously in the north and simply usurping them?
Fianna Fáil were heading that way before they fell off the electoral cliff in the Republic. But Fianna Fáil cannot be the right answer to any question (well, besides ones along the lines of "what is the most corrupt political party in Western Europe?").
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.
On the plus side it is good to see a UK political party taking allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female party members by a senior male figure seriously.
Most disappointing thing about the current Lib Dem brouhaha in a microcab is their miraculous discovery you can give a Lord a good kicking after all.
Wasnt the investigation into Rennard only meant to last 3 months or so? (I mean the one into whether he brought the party into disrepute by failing to apologise rather than any further investigation into the behaviour that was originally complained about.) They may end up kicking him out after all. Only a few years after the events.
Is there any chance of the SDLP getting gobbled up by a southern party? Or a southern party organising seriously in the north and simply usurping them?
Fianna Fáil were heading that way before they fell off the electoral cliff in the Republic. But Fianna Fáil cannot be the right answer to any question (well, besides ones along the lines of "what is the most corrupt political party in Western Europe?").
I noticed they were starting to perk up again in the Republic. If you swing long enough, the roundabout comes around eventually. I do recall them saying they were eying up the North, but the last thing I remember of it is taking Colonel Harvey Bicker for a little parade. Did they find they were flogging a dead horse, or did they just run out of resources before some momentum could build?
Did they find they were flogging a dead horse, or did they just run out of resources before some momentum could build?
There was some activity in universities but the move into the North was almost immediately prior to the financial crash and their subsequent electoral crash in the Republic. Their target for contesting elections in the North is 2019.
We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8 Labour 25.8 Conservative 24.1 Green 8.3 Lib Dem 7.6 AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...
We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8 Labour 25.8 Conservative 24.1 Green 8.3 Lib Dem 7.6 AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...
I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"
UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.
We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8 Labour 25.8 Conservative 24.1 Green 8.3 Lib Dem 7.6 AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...
I quite enjoyed the one day I spent in Cardiff. I reckon that I'm in the running for that distinction - unless Roger quietly came back to make an entry.
Several very good articles in this month's Standpoint magazine. The quote below is taken from the editorial:
"Replacing the idea of an integrated society with the ideology of multiculturalism has turned Europe into a "conglomeration of ghettos".
Toleration is not love; it is not even neighbourliness. A society that fails to invite immigrants to embrace its own values, but merely tolerates them as strangers in its midst, is barely a society at all."
Very unusual move by the IPCC. Officer, due to leave in coming 24 hours, can't face disciplinary measures if he is allowed to go.
Well done the IPCC, and more grist to Theresa May's mill. These sorts of resignations are a long-standing joke.
Though I don't agree with holding pension withdrawal over such officers [which is, IIRC, why they resign] - criminal charges would have been much more appropriate in many previous cases.
We also have different laws for males and females, A man can walk about topless, but some people get the "vapours" even if a woman only breast feeds in public? We could pass a law saying how much flesh and where, you "must" expose, but it rapidly becomes a nonsense.
I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"
UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.
Hounslow, Eastleigh
The seats that UKIP was defending in Hounslow were due to defections. Eastleigh produced a high UKIP vote of 29%, although that was not sufficient to win seats.
Harlow, Huntingdonshire, Basildon, Newcastle under Lyme. Castle Point, Wyre Forest, Dudley, Hartlepool, Worthing, Adur, Maidstone, Redditch, Southend, Thurrock, are all places where UKIP have been active for some time, or have had councillors recently elected, and where they added to their numbers.
One thing, I think my actual entry was different to my thread entry, which again was different to my election game entry. Its a good job the French results weren't asked for, I predicted 35% for FN in those !
We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8 Labour 25.8 Conservative 24.1 Green 8.3 Lib Dem 7.6 AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...
Yes, but he took the debt into public ownership first, a recurring theme with privatizations. The ones with money to invest get the good bits, the tax payer takes the bad. (The price and management off the sell of is another thing that some might question )
We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8 Labour 25.8 Conservative 24.1 Green 8.3 Lib Dem 7.6 AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...
Pretty sure I was Cardiff....
You must have been sweating a bit on your Greens sub 8% bet for a bit ! Though it was the right side of the line in the end.
We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8 Labour 25.8 Conservative 24.1 Green 8.3 Lib Dem 7.6 AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...
Pretty sure I was Cardiff....
You must have been sweating a bit on your Greens sub 8% bet for a bit ! Though it was the right side of the line in the end.
7.87% to be exact!
I've done well over the years with football betting but last season was rubbish, I am mostly backing horses at the moment"
Learning all I can about political betting from you guys and really enjoying it.
Farage has made considerable play of his support for the Greek Communist Party.Here is their reply
". The overall electoral results in the rest of the EU countries are negative for the peoples. They highlight the need for the regroupment of the communist movement and the strengthening of the CPs and the mass popular movements in a direction of rupture and overthrow of the power of capital and the monopolies. The tangible popular opposition to the EU, to its political line and institutions, which was also expressed by the mass abstention from the EU parliamentary elections in many member-states as a result of the many years of experience of the peoples regarding the EU, instead of acquiring an anti-monopoly and anti-capitalist orientation is trapped in conservative, reactionary parties, in nationalist and racist forces, fascist organizations, of so-called “euro-skepticism”, which serve the aims of various sections of capital. These sections of capital seek the reformation of the Eurozone and EU, even via the withdrawal of countries from it, in order to serve their particular interests, to strengthen their competitiveness. These parties do not dispute the anti-people political line, the intensification of capitalist exploitation, the accession to some form of imperialist alliance. Consequently, they are not a solution for the peoples of Europe."
Northern Ireland Assembly Member Anna Lo (Alliance) won't stand again in 2016. She's contemplating of leaving Northern Ireland because unionists are all racist there. Or something like that. England is better.
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/northern-ireland-chinese-mp-might-leave-province-racist-abuse
Edit: of course if you are not an LD supporter your views count much much less.
The difference is that when someone says there is a Hungarian moving in, I don't immediately assume they will be human trafficking. The Hungarian girl who works for us is a secretary.
We'd be still waiting for the results now.
So there is still a chance for Ska to become president!
I wasn't commenting on the method of arriving at the scores, I just thought a majority figure might be useful. I think most people would think 5500 ish would be a pretty good result.
And in answer to your more recent question, as TB (himself a Tory wet) pointed out, claiming to be to the left of the Labour party, then climbing into bed with the Tories was never going to end well.
Edit: My views hold the same value as yours do (in answer to your edit)
Fianna Fail 22% First Pref. votes 1 seat (-2)
Fine Gael 22% First pref. votes 4 seats (No change)
Sinn Fein 20% FPV 3 seats (+3)
Independents 20% FPV 3 seats (+2)
Labour 5% FPV 0 seats (-3)
FF topped the poll across the Republic, but came third in seats (exc. Independents). OK, an STV quirk I suppose!
SF now have four seats across the whole of Ireland (out of 14 total), with their vote share in the Republic approaching that in NI.
Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.
This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.
Pragmatic communist? Bravo! A Deng 1978 third plenum approach. Ie capitalism.
Much as I like STV Irish politics is a good corrective for those who think that changing the electoral system will improve politics. All a good electoral system can do is more accurately reflect the political will of the people, which is what I think happens in Ireland.
Fine Gael 22% First pref. votes 4 seats (No change)
So much for proportional representation!
Back to basics, a return to family values.
Of course, being a good Tory, this is no moral dilemma.
Everything has a price as long as profit is in the offing.
Why are you conflating Farage with a Dick Emery character?
http://www.woodysnet.co.uk/people/dick-emery/dick-emery-characters/
I see Bilderballs got a second date.
It was won by someone whose entry was:-
UKIP 27.8
Labour 25.8
Conservative 24.1
Green 8.3
Lib Dem 7.6
AIFE 1.7
I'm sending TSE the data
Dick Emery on College: “His Huguenot name suggests that he has had some kind of rarefied breeding, and he seems to have enjoyed a rather different background from the usual down-and-out kipper. The humour of the situation comes from the difference between College’s actual status in life, and his refusal to acknowledge his real electoral prospects. He remains a gentleman with cultural pretensions while slumming it with his friend, Nuttall. He retains the vestiges of his aspirant life. with the PM's old school tie, a city trader's bowler hat and a lothario's crumpled buttonhole. And if he met Stodge, a fellow ‘old boy’ from his real school, taking a stroll through the park where College sleeps every night, he would act as though their stations in life were equal, and his misfortunes would become even less real to him.”
[Minor edits to original]
Do you really want the real Farage: http://bit.ly/1j7JRif ?
Cheers for the competition, Mr. Smithson.
"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............ These little retreats may seem tolerant and enlightened, a way of embracing people who hold different views; a classic liberal fudge. But they are nothing of the sort. They embolden and shore up fundamentalism. They offer encouragement. And they culminate in the grotesque travesty of a silent minority in Pakistan looking the other way as women are buried up to their waists while members of their own family throw bricks at their heads."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4102751.ece
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/for-a-group-of-lib-dem-mps-the-war-is-already-over/
While there are many good points to be made. "Banning the burka" is an infringement on the liberty of any woman who chooses to wear it of her own free will.
While it sounds sensible to us, it sets a precedent that we would find abhorrent were it to be applied to other things.
(we actually have laws to cover modesty ourselves, ask the "naked rambler")
I dimly recall that around WWI the House of Commons actually voted for STV for parliamentary elections, but got blocked in the Lords. Though the University seats, which persisted for a few decades after that, did adopt it.
As a complete aside - despite running what must be the most appalling campaign by any political party I can think of in recent history (anyone got any other candidates even remotely close) apparently NI21 won a council seat! Just the one, mind. They're an interesting party - I thought they might just grow into mold-breakers before they fizzled out/imploded/fell apart at the seams/ate their own tail/shot both their feet, their heart and then their brains out. I can imagine the Alliance being keen to pluck up a few of their Bright Young Things.
Is that organisation, or at least some of the folk who've got involved with it, actually going to find a market for their ideas or political identity? Perhaps in 10 or 20 years time I can imagine them being a happier home for the relatively young, educated, more secular and less sectarian youth, than say the DUP are. Or is being wishy-washy and well-meaning without clear political objectives and a determined core vote, just another way to wash up as a fringe party or sucked up into the Alliance? I see the Greens are working hard and starting to carve out a teeny little niche for themselves in NI. They may be biting into a similar demographic?
@joncraig: Didn't realise until today that Lord Oakeshott owns Town of Ramsgate, oldest pub on R Thames, where mutineers were once hanged at low tide!
"Currystar said:
I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"
UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.
By selling the FTSE 100, or any number of other indices, individual shares, currencies, commodities, etc by means of spreadbetting with IG or another spreadbetting firm.
Obviously high risk with potentially high rewards - certainly IG run free seminars in London and elsewhere (incl in York next month) explaining how their platform works including how to open and close bets, the deposits required, etc.
Sadly the days are gone when the likes of IG Index, Sporting Index, etc operating spread markets on General Elections outcomes, eg one could buy or sell the number of seats each major party would win, etc.
Yes, I believe it is illegal.
I've always been firmly against a ban ( I'd advocate a ban on banning things). I've even been castigated by SeanT for my stance on the burka....but Syed's article really has set me thinking, given the case in Pakistan, and a long conversation with a couple of close friends.
Maybe I've been infected by ukipism!
The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]
.@bbcquestiontime have refused to take a Liberal Democrat panellist tonight.
Doesn't seem unreasonable, 3/5 elected politicians ought to be the max most of the time anyhow.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100273867/vince-cable-is-more-plotted-against-than-plotting/
I was trying to point out (badly) that we have laws and customs similar to the burka that we adhere to without thought. Same law, different degree.
That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?
Tricky one, isn't it. Where is the border between wearing a burka willingly and wearing it to conform and wearing because you're afraid of the consequences of not doing so...
They must have been taking lessons from Ed Miliband.
Funny how the mainland's Nasty Party, whose grassroots are so often compared to the dinosaurs, is one of NI's little corners of groovy liberalism.
I'm sure the UUP isn't dead yet. The SDLP I'm not so sure about. I sometimes grouch about my political options here, but if I lived in NI and was nationalist-leaning, I think I'd despair. Is there any chance of the SDLP getting gobbled up by a southern party? Or a southern party organising seriously in the north and simply usurping them?
?
Your selflessness and the selflessness of the Conservative party are an example to us all :-)
"I WILL SURVIVE": dramatic front page of the @SheffieldStar, Nick Clegg's local paper:
twitter.com/TimGattITV/status/472042827593945089/photo/1
I'll try and link via google docs.
"Replacing the idea of an integrated society with the ideology of multiculturalism has turned Europe into a "conglomeration of ghettos".
Toleration is not love; it is not even neighbourliness. A society that fails to invite immigrants to embrace its own values, but merely tolerates them as strangers in its midst, is barely a society at all."
http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/manchester-square-june-14-living-in-truth-daniel-johnson-tomas-halik
Police Watchdog IPCC has asked the Met today to reverse a decision to allow resignation of an officer facing probe after a death in custody
Dominic Casciani @BBCDomC 27m
Very unusual move by the IPCC. Officer, due to leave in coming 24 hours, can't face disciplinary measures if he is allowed to go.
Well done the IPCC, and more grist to Theresa May's mill. These sorts of resignations are a long-standing joke.
Though I don't agree with holding pension withdrawal over such officers [which is, IIRC, why they resign] - criminal charges would have been much more appropriate in many previous cases.
We also have different laws for males and females, A man can walk about topless, but some people get the "vapours" even if a woman only breast feeds in public?
We could pass a law saying how much flesh and where, you "must" expose, but it rapidly becomes a nonsense.
(sorry for the late reply, dog walking)
Harlow, Huntingdonshire, Basildon, Newcastle under Lyme. Castle Point, Wyre Forest, Dudley, Hartlepool, Worthing, Adur, Maidstone, Redditch, Southend, Thurrock, are all places where UKIP have been active for some time, or have had councillors recently elected, and where they added to their numbers.
I can tell you that you finished 37 places ahead of me.
But then again I finished 189th.
http://www.northwestvotes.gov.uk/nwv/download/downloads/id/10/european_parliamentary_election_2014_north_west_result_-_la_breakdown
I think it's
UKIP: Cheshire West, Carlisle, Stockport, Blackpool, Hyndburn, Lancaster, Rossendale, South Ribble, Wyre.
Con: Cheshire East, Eden, Fylde, Ribble Valley.
LD: South Lakeland
Everything else Labour
I must have been a gnat's fart short of the top 140. Probably down to the AIFE score and my underestimating UK voters.
Helped put universities on a sound footing with his plans for tuition fees.
The Green investment bank was set up on his watch, which does invaluable work
He also proved that it's just not me that turns into an idiot when some pretty young female bats her eyelashes at him.
Although my nuclear weapon is more impressive.
He's also a strong proponent of the Mansion tax, which should see the Lib Dems get massacred in London and the South, leading to lots more Tory MPs
"Privatised the Royal Mail"
Yes, but he took the debt into public ownership first, a recurring theme with privatizations. The ones with money to invest get the good bits, the tax payer takes the bad.
(The price and management off the sell of is another thing that some might question )
I've done well over the years with football betting but last season was rubbish, I am mostly backing horses at the moment"
Learning all I can about political betting from you guys and really enjoying it.
". The overall electoral results in the rest of the EU countries are negative for the peoples. They highlight the need for the regroupment of the communist movement and the strengthening of the CPs and the mass popular movements in a direction of rupture and overthrow of the power of capital and the monopolies. The tangible popular opposition to the EU, to its political line and institutions, which was also expressed by the mass abstention from the EU parliamentary elections in many member-states as a result of the many years of experience of the peoples regarding the EU, instead of acquiring an anti-monopoly and anti-capitalist orientation is trapped in conservative, reactionary parties, in nationalist and racist forces, fascist organizations, of so-called “euro-skepticism”, which serve the aims of various sections of capital. These sections of capital seek the reformation of the Eurozone and EU, even via the withdrawal of countries from it, in order to serve their particular interests, to strengthen their competitiveness. These parties do not dispute the anti-people political line, the intensification of capitalist exploitation, the accession to some form of imperialist alliance. Consequently, they are not a solution for the peoples of Europe."
Full,very lengthy,KKE statement here.
http://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/Statement-of-the-CC-on-the-results-of-the-elections-of-the-18th-and-25th-of-May-2014/
Probably top till London came in or some such.
Genuinely can't remember what I put in the competition.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/northern-ireland-chinese-mp-might-leave-province-racist-abuse