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A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:
Doncaster North:
Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
Con 1,759 (7.69%)
Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
Green 792 (3.46%)
LD 773 (3.38%)
Community Group 673 (2.94%)
Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
TUSC 458 (2.00%)
Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m
Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.
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Right, so the election in 2010 was:MikeK said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m
Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.
Con: 53.9
Labour 22.3
LD: 20.0
UKIP: 3.8
May as well make a prediction for this poll. Totally without basis, I will guess:
Con:40
Labour; 25
UKIP:25
LD: 100 -
UKIP ahead of Labour I reckon.kle4 said:
Right, so the election in 2010 was:MikeK said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 2m
Newark by-election poll by Survation for Sun due out at 10pm. This is the first of the campaign.
Con: 53.9
Labour 22.3
LD: 20.0
UKIP: 3.8
May as well make a prediction for this poll. Totally without basis, I will guess:
Con:40
Labour; 25
UKIP:25
LD: 100 -
The UK is becoming increasingly a multi-party state and we will continue to see the fragmentation of the old 2 party system.There are 5 parties now.I guess we will end up with about 8.The electoral reform needed to come alongside can be made to work in local government first.I trust local government to make it work.Then maybe there will be the necessary change to the electoral system for parliament.Consensus politics is back in the game and it is coalition building where the future lies with the exception of Clegg who is simply not to be trusted.
That's what I think after talking to the birds with a quick rub of the crystal balls.
Interesting article from Tony Travers indicating the extent of the trend.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/41621?utm_content=bufferac9ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer0 -
If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?AndyJS said:A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:
Doncaster North:
Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
Con 1,759 (7.69%)
Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
Green 792 (3.46%)
LD 773 (3.38%)
Community Group 673 (2.94%)
Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
TUSC 458 (2.00%)
Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)
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It's a Survation poll so likely to be very good for UKIP.0
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How often does this old chestnut come up? Seems like only last week!anotherDave said:
If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?AndyJS said:A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:
Doncaster North:
Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
Con 1,759 (7.69%)
Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
Green 792 (3.46%)
LD 773 (3.38%)
Community Group 673 (2.94%)
Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
TUSC 458 (2.00%)
Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)
The answer's NO, he does not have to be an MP.0 -
My prediction
Con:39
UKIP 26
Labour:20
Green:6
LD: 5
Others: 40 -
More than Amy Pond?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I'm a big fan of FDR.david_herdson said:
FDR has an extremely strong claim to be the greatest leader of the 20th century. He has an arguable one as the most significant too, though unlike Hitler or Lenin, his claim has to be based on both what he did, domestically and internationally, and also on what he prevented. Had FDR's leadership and New Deal failed, it's not at all inconceivable that capitalism and democracy could have broken down in the States, the consequences of which would have been almost incalculable.TheScreamingEagles said:
I went for FDR.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Dawning, some BBC bigwig or other reckoned Mandela was the most significant leader of the 20th century.
As was suggested here, Hitler wins by a bloody mile. Even if you only count 'good' leaders, Churchill matters more.
He was a lying duplicitous bastard when it came to neutrality in WW2, but he helped us win the war.0 -
On a parCharles said:
More than Amy Pond?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed, I'm a big fan of FDR.david_herdson said:
FDR has an extremely strong claim to be the greatest leader of the 20th century. He has an arguable one as the most significant too, though unlike Hitler or Lenin, his claim has to be based on both what he did, domestically and internationally, and also on what he prevented. Had FDR's leadership and New Deal failed, it's not at all inconceivable that capitalism and democracy could have broken down in the States, the consequences of which would have been almost incalculable.TheScreamingEagles said:
I went for FDR.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Dawning, some BBC bigwig or other reckoned Mandela was the most significant leader of the 20th century.
As was suggested here, Hitler wins by a bloody mile. Even if you only count 'good' leaders, Churchill matters more.
He was a lying duplicitous bastard when it came to neutrality in WW2, but he helped us win the war.0 -
If Clegg and Miliband both lost their seats I'd laugh my ass off.0
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Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%0 -
Mere striplings.corporeal said:
They young people of 10 years ago? 25-44 is young people?Sean_F said:
Peter Kellner has pointed out that over 50 years of polling, younger people have been more liberal over immigration and diversity than older people - but, they become far less liberal as they get older.AndyJS said:
Not exactly the most surprising finding ever published.TheScreamingEagles said:First-time voters far happier with UK’s ethnic mix than over-60s
Poll revealing big generation gap on diversity suggests support for the far-right parties is vulnerable
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/firsttime-voters-far-happier-with-uks-ethnic-mix-than-over60s-9456674.html
The British Social Attitudes Survey indicates that over the past 10 years, the biggest rise in hostility to immigration (and willingness to describe themselves as racially prejudiced) is among voters born between 1960 and 1979, that is, the young people of 10 years ago.
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Christ.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%0 -
Another against that myth they only advertise the polls if it is good for team blue.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%
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" Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16% "
The goat entrails need another stirring.0 -
Get rid of lib dems,they dragging tories down with them ;-)Tykejohnno said:
Christ.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%0 -
Technically, I don't think so, although given it is now pretty accepted convention that someone should be an PM, not merely a parliamentarian to be MP, I imagine he would stand down as Labour Leader in that event, although I believe another MP could immediately resign, to provide a seat for him to stand in a quick by-election.anotherDave said:
If Labour won the election, but Mr Miliband lost his seat, could he still be PM? Does he have to be an MP?AndyJS said:A reminder of the local election result in Ed's constituency:
Doncaster North:
Lab 9,201 (40.22%)
UKIP 7,547 (32.99%)
Con 1,759 (7.69%)
Working for Mexborough 1,193 (5.22%)
Green 792 (3.46%)
LD 773 (3.38%)
Community Group 673 (2.94%)
Eng Dem 479 (2.09%)
TUSC 458 (2.00%)
Labour lead: 1,654 (7.23%)
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Outlier on the Labour score I reckon.0
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Presumably an outlier? Can't see there has been that much that has happened recently?TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%0 -
38% is obviously an outlier for Labour.Tykejohnno said:
Christ.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%
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The polls have been all over the place before the Euros. as I said at the time, they will take time to settle.0
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New Thread0
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EXCL: Survation/Sun poll - Tories on course to win the all-important Newark by-election next week http://bit.ly/1hCPOUS0
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You serious or is this a windup?Richard_Tyndall said:
My prediction
Con:39
UKIP 26
Labour:20
Green:6
LD: 5
Others: 40 -
It's roughly where they were at the beginning of the month - perhaps it's just the election fever starting to wear off.Sean_F said:
38% is obviously an outlier for Labour.Tykejohnno said:
Christ.TheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 18s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead jumps to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 16%0