politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The challenge for UKIP now is to succeed under First Past t

Talking of Northern Ireland. Disappointing news:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/northern-ireland-chinese-mp-might-leave-province-racist-abuse

Smarmeron said:

@TOPPING

I say that as something I believe, a belief shared by many ex and present LibDem voters.

You didn't answer my question but fair enough. At what point would you have had the LDs leave the coalition? Tuition fees?

Edit: of course if you are not an LD supporter your views count much much less.

Neil said:

SandyRentool said:

Neil said:

SandyRentool said:

ToryJim said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?

I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.

Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.

English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.

BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.

We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.

I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.

You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...

You should have voted Green.

To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.

Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?

STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.

But certainly not when it comes to figuring out who has been elected.

We know who was elected in Northern Ireland. That would seem to be the main thing.

SandyRentool said:

And why should the result be decided by how many candidates each party decides to put on the ballot?

It's not. The result is decided by who the voters vote for.

So you prefer d'Hondt to STV. Great. I'm not one for endless debates on voting systems myself. But the idea that d'Hondt is just fine while STV is "nonsense on stilts" is silly.

Could you imagine Tower Hamlets with STV ???????????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We'd be still waiting for the results now.

volcanopete said:

The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.

Fine Gael held their 4 seats in the European Parliament. Labour is obviously suffering greatly but one of the parties recovering is Fianna Fail who initiated the austerity policies.

Pragmatic communist is the answer you originally sought.
And in answer to your more recent question, as TB (himself a Tory wet) pointed out, claiming to be to the left of the Labour party, then climbing into bed with the Tories was never going to end well.

Edit: My views hold the same value as yours do (in answer to your edit)

Icarus said:

MrJones said:

Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.

Avoid mistakes ......

Quite an ask that.

College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.

Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.

This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.

AveryLP said:

College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.

Isnt that precisely the kind of behaviour the political classes arent meant to be talking about never mind engaging in?!

volcanopete said:

The Sinn Fein gains seems to have passed people by.The Irish elections,which must take place before April 3 2016,I think will not.The Irish people have had a gutfull of austerity so expect heavy vomit all over the current governemt.

I don't follow Irish politics as closely as I might, but I thought it was Labour in Ireland who are taking the brunt of the ire, with the previous government party, FF, benefiting.

Much as I like STV Irish politics is a good corrective for those who think that changing the electoral system will improve politics. All a good electoral system can do is more accurately reflect the political will of the people, which is what I think happens in Ireland.

AveryLP said:

Icarus said:

MrJones said:

Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.

Avoid mistakes ......

Quite an ask that.

College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.

Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.

This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.

Gagging, leashing and caging ?

Back to basics, a return to family values.

Neil said:

AveryLP said:

College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.

Isnt that precisely the kind of behaviour the political classes arent meant to be talking about never mind engaging in?!

It is all on the agenda at the Bilderberg Meeting, Neil.

SandyRentool said:

Fianna Fail 22% First Pref. votes 1 seat (-2)
Fine Gael 22% First pref. votes 4 seats (No change)

So much for proportional representation!

The clue's in "First Pref", Sandy. Presumably later preferences (on other ballots) heavily favoured Fine Gael?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Fianna Fail 22% First Pref. votes 1 seat (-2)
Fine Gael 22% First pref. votes 4 seats (No change)

So much for proportional representation!

Um, one of those very rare instances of STV quirkiness, Sandy!

I was going to make a comment about the wisdom and meaningfulness of only quoting first prefs, while reporting an STV election, then complaining about it not being proportional representation. But I got distracted by the British figures - apparently Labour picked up 49.7% of seats WITHOUT GETTING ANY SECOND PREFERENCE TRANSFERS. What kind of Alternative Vote do the muppets at the Electoral Commission think they're running??

currystar said:

I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this.

Once people have observed what UKIP are actually like, they realise that UKIP are a Worse Than The Above party, rather than a None Of The Above party.

Damn, that means I'm not the winner.

Cheers for the competition, Mr. Smithson.

AveryLP said:

Icarus said:

MrJones said:

Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.

Avoid mistakes ......

Quite an ask that.

College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.

Those who escape his restraints will, unlike LibLabCon transgressors, be given the party's unique 'marching orders'.

This will not only keep the annual attrition of Kipper Councillors down to a reasonable 20%, it will also, from September 2014, boost UK GDP.

Well he certainly doesn't need to be taking lessons from the Tories whose response is generally to excuse their racists and homophobes and let them carry on in office as if nothing had happened.

MikeSmithson said:

We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition

It was won by someone whose entry was:-

UKIP 27.8
Labour 25.8
Conservative 24.1
Green 8.3
Lib Dem 7.6
AIFE 1.7


I'm sending TSE the data

What an excellent prediction that person gave, whoever it was.

Neil said:

AveryLP said:

Neil said:

AveryLP said:

College needs to gag his councillors, leash them when in public, cage them during council meetings and cut off their internet.

Isnt that precisely the kind of behaviour the political classes arent meant to be talking about never mind engaging in?!

It is all on the agenda at the Bilderberg Meeting, Neil.

Sweet Lord, Avery. Shush or you'll have the media classes reporting it!

Wheres Ninoiz today ?

Interesting analogy from James Forsyth

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/for-a-group-of-lib-dem-mps-the-war-is-already-over/

@TwistedFireStopper

While there are many good points to be made. "Banning the burka" is an infringement on the liberty of any woman who chooses to wear it of her own free will.
While it sounds sensible to us, it sets a precedent that we would find abhorrent were it to be applied to other things.
(we actually have laws to cover modesty ourselves, ask the "naked rambler")

Neil said:

STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.

I quite like multimember STV myself, it would certainly have enfranchised me when I've been living in hopeless seats. Didn't it used to be called "British proportional representation"? We seem to have invented and exported it, without ever quite taking to it - bit like certain sports I can think of...

I dimly recall that around WWI the House of Commons actually voted for STV for parliamentary elections, but got blocked in the Lords. Though the University seats, which persisted for a few decades after that, did adopt it.

As a complete aside - despite running what must be the most appalling campaign by any political party I can think of in recent history (anyone got any other candidates even remotely close) apparently NI21 won a council seat! Just the one, mind. They're an interesting party - I thought they might just grow into mold-breakers before they fizzled out/imploded/fell apart at the seams/ate their own tail/shot both their feet, their heart and then their brains out. I can imagine the Alliance being keen to pluck up a few of their Bright Young Things.

Is that organisation, or at least some of the folk who've got involved with it, actually going to find a market for their ideas or political identity? Perhaps in 10 or 20 years time I can imagine them being a happier home for the relatively young, educated, more secular and less sectarian youth, than say the DUP are. Or is being wishy-washy and well-meaning without clear political objectives and a determined core vote, just another way to wash up as a fringe party or sucked up into the Alliance? I see the Greens are working hard and starting to carve out a teeny little niche for themselves in NI. They may be biting into a similar demographic?

"Currystar said:

I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"

UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.

Neil said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............

There's nothing "small" about the battle to allow people to wear what they like. It's an important issue - noone wants to end up like a second-rate France. Isnt forced marriage illegal?

Yes, I believe it is illegal.
I've always been firmly against a ban ( I'd advocate a ban on banning things). I've even been castigated by SeanT for my stance on the burka....but Syed's article really has set me thinking, given the case in Pakistan, and a long conversation with a couple of close friends.
Maybe I've been infected by ukipism!

Lib Dem Press Office ‏@LibDemPress 10m

.@bbcquestiontime have refused to take a Liberal Democrat panellist tonight.

Doesn't seem unreasonable, 3/5 elected politicians ought to be the max most of the time anyhow.

Tissue_Price said:

Lib Dem Press Office ‏@LibDemPress 10m

.@bbcquestiontime have refused to take a Liberal Democrat panellist tonight.

Doesn't seem unreasonable, 3/5 elected politicians ought to be the max most of the time anyhow.

Surprising, would've thought they'd have wanted one with all the Oakshott, Cable, Clegg stuff flying around.

@Tissue_Price

I was trying to point out (badly) that we have laws and customs similar to the burka that we adhere to without thought. Same law, different degree.

@ MBE

That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?

TwistedFireStopper said:

Neil said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

"Our reluctance to fight ‘small’ battles – over forced marriage and the burka – merely emboldens the fundamentalists............

There's nothing "small" about the battle to allow people to wear what they like. It's an important issue - noone wants to end up like a second-rate France. Isnt forced marriage illegal?

Yes, I believe it is illegal.
I've always been firmly against a ban ( I'd advocate a ban on banning things). I've even been castigated by SeanT for my stance on the burka....but Syed's article really has set me thinking, given the case in Pakistan, and a long conversation with a couple of close friends.
Maybe I've been infected by ukipism!

You're being too harsh on yourself. You've clearly thought pretty deeply about it and the surrounding issues. You haven't called for a ban on the ground of it being "foreign" or "different".

Tricky one, isn't it. Where is the border between wearing a burka willingly and wearing it to conform and wearing because you're afraid of the consequences of not doing so...

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition

It was won by someone whose entry was:-

UKIP 27.8
Labour 25.8
Conservative 24.1
Green 8.3
Lib Dem 7.6
AIFE 1.7


I'm sending TSE the data

I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.

The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]

Hertsmere Pubgoer I reckon, he's always close to the mark.

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.

Why would they?

FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.

So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.

On the same basis, why would the Tories favour FPTP?

Country before party

Sean_F said:

Neil said:

@ MBE

That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?

The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.

On the plus side it is good to see a UK political party taking allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female party members by a senior male figure seriously.

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

Neil said:

@ MBE

That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?

The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.

On the plus side it is good to see a UK political party taking allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female party members by a senior male figure seriously.

Most disappointing thing about the current Lib Dem brouhaha in a microcab is their miraculous discovery you can give a Lord a good kicking after all.

MyBurningEars said:

Neil said:

Sean_F said:

Neil said:

@ MBE

That small segment of the Northern Ireland electorate (ie those desperate to move beyond the constitutional question and the legacy issues the Northern Ireland establishment loves to spend its time on) is very well served. The Conservatives, NI21, Alliance and the Greens have all tried their best. Everyone says that they offer the politics that young Northern Irish people want but that never really shows up at the ballot box. For them to succeed they probably have to eat into the UUP and SDLP. I've been scathing about him in the past but Nesbit pulled a decent result out of the bag for the UUP. As for what's happened to NI21 ... you couldnt make it up, could you?

The leaders of NI21 seem to have done everything in their power to sabotage their own party.

On the plus side it is good to see a UK political party taking allegations of inappropriate behaviour towards female party members by a senior male figure seriously.

Most disappointing thing about the current Lib Dem brouhaha in a microcab is their miraculous discovery you can give a Lord a good kicking after all.

Wasnt the investigation into Rennard only meant to last 3 months or so? (I mean the one into whether he brought the party into disrepute by failing to apologise rather than any further investigation into the behaviour that was originally complained about.) They may end up kicking him out after all. Only a few years after the events.

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.

Why would they?

FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.

So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.

On the same basis, why would the Tories favour FPTP?

Country before party

Indeed Charles! Just as your own interests are best served by a Labour government, but patriotically you favour the Tories instead.

Your selflessness and the selflessness of the Conservative party are an example to us all :-)

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition

It was won by someone whose entry was:-

UKIP 27.8
Labour 25.8
Conservative 24.1
Green 8.3
Lib Dem 7.6
AIFE 1.7


I'm sending TSE the data

I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.

The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]

The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...

Sean_F said:

"Currystar said:

I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"

UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.

Hounslow, Eastleigh

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ, I meant to type "screen shot" and typed "money shot" instead

Erm, a spreadsheet will be fine thank you.

Several very good articles in this month's Standpoint magazine. The quote below is taken from the editorial:

"Replacing the idea of an integrated society with the ideology of multiculturalism has turned Europe into a "conglomeration of ghettos".

Toleration is not love; it is not even neighbourliness. A society that fails to invite immigrants to embrace its own values, but merely tolerates them as strangers in its midst, is barely a society at all."

http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/manchester-square-june-14-living-in-truth-daniel-johnson-tomas-halik

@Tissue_Price

We also have different laws for males and females, A man can walk about topless, but some people get the "vapours" even if a woman only breast feeds in public?
We could pass a law saying how much flesh and where, you "must" expose, but it rapidly becomes a nonsense.

(sorry for the late reply, dog walking)

currystar said:

Sean_F said:

"Currystar said:

I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this"

UKIP tended to gain in areas where the party was already strong, or had councillors.

Hounslow, Eastleigh

The seats that UKIP was defending in Hounslow were due to defections. Eastleigh produced a high UKIP vote of 29%, although that was not sufficient to win seats.

Harlow, Huntingdonshire, Basildon, Newcastle under Lyme. Castle Point, Wyre Forest, Dudley, Hartlepool, Worthing, Adur, Maidstone, Redditch, Southend, Thurrock, are all places where UKIP have been active for some time, or have had councillors recently elected, and where they added to their numbers.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ, I meant to type "screen shot" and typed "money shot" instead

Erm, a spreadsheet will be fine thank you.

Spreadsheet link added and working via dropbox.

I can tell you that you finished 37 places ahead of me.

But then again I finished 189th.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ, I meant to type "screen shot" and typed "money shot" instead

Erm, a spreadsheet will be fine thank you.

Spreadsheet link added and working via dropbox.

I can tell you that you finished 37 places ahead of me.

But then again I finished 189th.

A win is a win! Hoorar.....

I must have been a gnat's fart short of the top 140. Probably down to the AIFE score and my underestimating UK voters.

TGOHF said:

TheWatcher said:

ToryJim said:

The egregious Peter Oborne goes into bat for Cable and declares him as pure as the driven snow. God Oborne is a prize pillock.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100273867/vince-cable-is-more-plotted-against-than-plotting/

'he has been an active and impressive business secretary.'

?

Again - a list of his achievements would be invaluable ..

Privatised the Royal Mail, something Thatcher or Mandy couldn't/wouldn't do.

Helped put universities on a sound footing with his plans for tuition fees.

The Green investment bank was set up on his watch, which does invaluable work

He also proved that it's just not me that turns into an idiot when some pretty young female bats her eyelashes at him.

Although my nuclear weapon is more impressive.

He's also a strong proponent of the Mansion tax, which should see the Lib Dems get massacred in London and the South, leading to lots more Tory MPs

One thing, I think my actual entry was different to my thread entry, which again was different to my election game entry. Its a good job the French results weren't asked for, I predicted 35% for FN in those !

@TheScreamingEagles

"Privatised the Royal Mail"

Yes, but he took the debt into public ownership first, a recurring theme with privatizations. The ones with money to invest get the good bits, the tax payer takes the bad.
(The price and management off the sell of is another thing that some might question )

nigel4england said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

We've now computed the winner of our EP14 prediction competition

It was won by someone whose entry was:-

UKIP 27.8
Labour 25.8
Conservative 24.1
Green 8.3
Lib Dem 7.6
AIFE 1.7


I'm sending TSE the data

I have the spreadsheet, and will be doing a thread on it either this evening, or in the morning.

The winner is ::drumroll:: [redacted until the thread]

The problem here is many of us will have done something v close to those numbers but have a nagging false recollection problem.... I hope there will be a league table or top 10 so we can see how close glory was and of course who was Cardiff...

Pretty sure I was Cardiff....

You must have been sweating a bit on your Greens sub 8% bet for a bit ! Though it was the right side of the line in the end.

Mine's going to have been the Liverpool entry...

Probably top till London came in or some such.

Genuinely can't remember what I put in the competition.