Walking round parts of London is eerily reminiscent of walking around Pompeii. How long before there are guides taking tourists around, showing them empty office blocks, the computers and files still there, walking past theatres with posters for plays interrupted in mid-run, peering in to pubs with the upside-down bottles of spirits gathering dust?
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness.
And to think there were people who thought the virus would change things.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
Stop with this ridiculous Project Fear, Brexit will be a success, you just need to believe in it harder.
Brexit could have been a success, and there were persuasive arguments for it at the time, It might yet be a success in the future (if we don't all die this winter)
But if economies are collapsing across the world, and angry populations are locked indoors, and civil disorder is breaking out in western cities, and America is torn into violent pieces, then Brexit will just look utterly STUPID, and I reckon polls might reflect that, which will entirely change the British political context
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
Stop with this ridiculous Project Fear, Brexit will be a success, you just need to believe in it harder.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Yet this is exactly what most people who know or have worked with Boris expected from the beginning. I don’t see any particular reason to think he is still ill.
I want to play a game with the still ill theorists: I give them 20 stills or videos of Boris, 10 from Jan to March and 10 from June to August, and they have to allocate them correctly. He always looks like that.
He's also a new father, of a screaming baby, at the age of 56. He is bound to look totally fucked all the time.
Boris Jnr is screaming at the Italian lakes at the moment iirc.
A bit like enforced mask wearing, now what was the daily positive case rate when mask wearing in shops was introduced? We are full tilt martingale mask wearing system now. In two weeks masks wearing will be enforced in offices and in another two weeks in all outdoor spaces. By December we will be wearing nuclear suits at all times.
Tomorrow night I will attend the pub. I must now wear a mask as I walk through the pub on arrival, when I sit down at a table with people not from my household I do not need to wear a mask, but when i go to to the toilet I do. Now that really makes sense.
The problem is, you think the government should be ranking risk activities, and using that as the basis of restrictions, such as mask wearing.
That makes perfect sense, right?
Wrong.
The government wants to minimise the spread of CV19, while also minimising the economic impact.
If you want to do something that increases R (like having schools and universities go back), then you need to find other measures that reduce it. Even if those measures are lower risk, you need to proscribe them to allow activities with higher R (but greater societal impact) to happen.
I know we will never agree but if you look at the graphs a week after mask wearing in shops was introduced in July cases started increasing.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc - if you know your Latin.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
But, I suspect that if he pulls off some deal that Farage and a few of nutters from ERG decide is the greatest betrayal of Britain since Chamberlain, the rest of UK will not give a flying f**k because we are too busy trying to stay alive and out of intensive care.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
Populist government - if people support going into lockdown that what the government will be minded to do. Therefore it makes no sense to say that "people won`t do it".
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Going off the berries on the trees in my garden, we might get one.
Yet this is exactly what most people who know or have worked with Boris expected from the beginning. I don’t see any particular reason to think he is still ill.
I want to play a game with the still ill theorists: I give them 20 stills or videos of Boris, 10 from Jan to March and 10 from June to August, and they have to allocate them correctly. He always looks like that.
He's also a new father, of a screaming baby, at the age of 56. He is bound to look totally fucked all the time.
Boris Jnr is screaming at the Italian lakes at the moment iirc.
Don’t blame him, given the thunder and torrential rain.
There’s also been some snow in the Alps, normally doesn’t come until October
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
It's already happened. It cannot be undone. We need to move on but the pressure to deliver a deal will be immense. Which is a good thing.
Yet this is exactly what most people who know or have worked with Boris expected from the beginning. I don’t see any particular reason to think he is still ill.
I want to play a game with the still ill theorists: I give them 20 stills or videos of Boris, 10 from Jan to March and 10 from June to August, and they have to allocate them correctly. He always looks like that.
He's also a new father, of a screaming baby, at the age of 56. He is bound to look totally fucked all the time.
Isn't the mother of his child on holiday right now?
Says man who campaigned to end free trade with Europe.
No he didn't, he's always advocated having a free trade agreement with Europe, just as the Tories are still seeking to negotiate.
The EU != free trade.
An FTA with the EU will be far less ambitious than the Single Market. The "free trade" argument for leaving the EU is at best ill-informed, but more likely just dishonest.
The EU is less than 6% of the planet's population and is rapidly shrinking as a share of global GDP and trade.
The future is not little Europeanism, it is embracing the globe as Britain has successfully done for centuries. I expect in my lifetime we will trade more with Asia than with Europe.
Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier to trade with Asia. Countries like Germany, even Italy, are more successful at trading with Asia than we are, and don't seem to need to leave the EU to do so. Plus of course there is the role of distance in explaining trade intensities (size and distance being the main drivers of trade) which explains why we trade more with countries a short drive away than those on the other side of the planet. This whole global Britain stuff is just economically illiterate guff for weak-minded imperial nostalgics.
They may be more successful but even they're not doing that great. Germany has been shrinking relative to the rest of the globe. This is the problem of narcissistically only thinking about Europe, there's a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
In 1993 when the EEC became the EU, Germany made up 5.2% of global GDP. In 2018 Germany was just 2.9% of global GDP.
Look how Germany has fallen behind or grown slower than so many other countries in the past three decades:
GDP per capita: 1993 (EEC becomes the EU) ... 2018 Germany $25,522 ... $47,603 USA $26,387 ... $62,794 Singapore $18,290 ... $64,581 Australia $17,634 ... $51,373 New Zealand $13,094 ... $41,945 Canada $20,121 ... $46,233 South Korea $8,741 ... $31,362
Only one of the countries on your list had to absorb a failed communist state. It's you who's failing to see the bigger picture.
You might want to brush up on your history lessons. Germany absorbed East Germany prior to 1993. If anything it should have meant that the German GDP per capita was deflated in 1993 with a lot more potential to grow as they brought East Germany up to western standards. Instead the opposite happened.
But if you think Germany isn't a good example feel free to pick any other major European economy and show any that have performed better than global standards since 1993? The UK? France? Be my guest.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
A bit like enforced mask wearing, now what was the daily positive case rate when mask wearing in shops was introduced? We are full tilt martingale mask wearing system now. In two weeks masks wearing will be enforced in offices and in another two weeks in all outdoor spaces. By December we will be wearing nuclear suits at all times.
Tomorrow night I will attend the pub. I must now wear a mask as I walk through the pub on arrival, when I sit down at a table with people not from my household I do not need to wear a mask, but when i go to to the toilet I do. Now that really makes sense.
The problem is, you think the government should be ranking risk activities, and using that as the basis of restrictions, such as mask wearing.
That makes perfect sense, right?
Wrong.
The government wants to minimise the spread of CV19, while also minimising the economic impact.
If you want to do something that increases R (like having schools and universities go back), then you need to find other measures that reduce it. Even if those measures are lower risk, you need to proscribe them to allow activities with higher R (but greater societal impact) to happen.
I know we will never agree but if you look at the graphs a week after mask wearing in shops was introduced in July cases started increasing.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc - if you know your Latin.
The Bar Council has snuffed out an attempt by controversial barrister Henry Hendron to nominate himself as a candidate in its upcoming elections.
Hendron, who was suspended from practice for three years in 2016 after he admitted supplying drugs which killed his boyfriend at a chemsex orgy in Temple, was seeking to join the regulator to oversee the profession.
He submitted his bid at 16:57 on Monday, three minutes before the deadline.
At 16:58, the Bar Council's executive team rejected his application, informing him that printing 'HH' as his signature was insufficient. Hendron volleyed back a hand-signed version which he says would have arrived no later than 17:01.
But he was told his application was still being rejected because he was out of time. "You can't be serious about that?" replied the barrister, who won his appeal against a second suspension in 2019.
However, head of Governance Natalie Zara was indeed serious, and informed Hendron she was "unable to correspond any further on this matter" with him.
The barrister, who has acted for Conservative politicians Nigel Evans and Nadine Dorries, intends to escalate the matter to the courts, and has made an application in the RCJ to validate his nomination and get himself back on the ballot.
Hendron argued in his nomination's supporting statement that "to lead change we need a Bar Council which is diverse in every respect, which includes and embraces all, from the young radicals to the old dinosaurs of the bar, and those in between the two".
He continued, "I am (very!) openly gay, opinionated (but in a reasoned (and I hope nice way!)), tolerant and compassionate and I believe that the Bar needs to stand up and lead the change in the legal sector, and not simply respond to change thrust upon it".
Hendron told RollOnFriday it was ironic that his statement addressed how the Bar Council should be 'leading change', "yet at the heart of its own election process it seemingly fights any change at all by its stubborn refusal to adapt with the times and allow electronic signature".
He said the requirement for a handwritten signature specified in the nomination guidance was "no doubt" added by "some administrative junky [sic]" within the Bar Council.
The Bar Council did not respond to requests for comment.
The man's a twat but some organisations really don't help themselves, do they?
IF deadlines AND signature requirement were part of nomination rules, then he has NO CASE - surely a lawyer could figure THAT out.
Maybe he and Kanye West should get together and compare notes?
Surely a decent barrister (if he is one) can argue electronic signatures count. There will be plenty who have used them in the last six months, yours truly included.
But the rules specifically required HANDWRITTEN signatures?
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
It's already happened. It cannot be undone. We need to move on but the pressure to deliver a deal will be immense. Which is a good thing.
People aren't going to be regretting their motivation for voting Leave (stricter immigration rules) on the back of Covid-19
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
Populist government - if people support going into lockdown that what the government will be minded to do. Therefore it makes no sense to say that "people won`t do it".
A significant minority of people wont do it, and Farage will be round to exploit any Govt/Labour backed heavy handedness. This is playing into his hands in a way he could not have imagined
Says man who campaigned to end free trade with Europe.
No he didn't, he's always advocated having a free trade agreement with Europe, just as the Tories are still seeking to negotiate.
The EU != free trade.
An FTA with the EU will be far less ambitious than the Single Market. The "free trade" argument for leaving the EU is at best ill-informed, but more likely just dishonest.
The EU is less than 6% of the planet's population and is rapidly shrinking as a share of global GDP and trade.
The future is not little Europeanism, it is embracing the globe as Britain has successfully done for centuries. I expect in my lifetime we will trade more with Asia than with Europe.
Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier to trade with Asia. Countries like Germany, even Italy, are more successful at trading with Asia than we are, and don't seem to need to leave the EU to do so. Plus of course there is the role of distance in explaining trade intensities (size and distance being the main drivers of trade) which explains why we trade more with countries a short drive away than those on the other side of the planet. This whole global Britain stuff is just economically illiterate guff for weak-minded imperial nostalgics.
They may be more successful but even they're not doing that great. Germany has been shrinking relative to the rest of the globe. This is the problem of narcissistically only thinking about Europe, there's a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
In 1993 when the EEC became the EU, Germany made up 5.2% of global GDP. In 2018 Germany was just 2.9% of global GDP.
Look how Germany has fallen behind or grown slower than so many other countries in the past three decades:
GDP per capita: 1993 (EEC becomes the EU) ... 2018 Germany $25,522 ... $47,603 USA $26,387 ... $62,794 Singapore $18,290 ... $64,581 Australia $17,634 ... $51,373 New Zealand $13,094 ... $41,945 Canada $20,121 ... $46,233 South Korea $8,741 ... $31,362
That is, as anyone can see clearly a completely absurd argument. In the 1800’s the U.K. had 10% of global GDP and that fell massively before we joined the EU. So I assume you would argue that joining the EU was ‘good’ for the U.K. Frankly when arguments become that absurd to justify Brexit you really have to wonder. Yes developing countries grow faster than developed countries. Now where do bears go when the need the toilet.
This is actually really irresponsible. The government are actually really good at releasing the data, so there isn't any need to "expose" anything based on the say so of a source. If they didn't release this data, absolutely, but they do.
I wonder if Sunak is so likely to be the next leader that laying him is good value
Yes, Boris and the c*** will try and hand him political defeat after defeat to destroy his credibility even if it means taking down the whole country by destabilising the treasury. They care more about their agenda than the future if the nation.
The same Boris who promoted Rishi to Chief Secretary to the Treasury as soon as he became PM, trusted him to represent him in a general election debate, and then (with Cummings) unceremoniously forced Javid out because they wanted Rishi to be the Chancellor so much?
It's a view.
Indeed. The reason I tipped Rishi last year was in part because his rise had already started and it was clear he was being trusted in a way others weren't.
I don't think Boris can sack Rishi now any more than Blair could get rid of Brown in his later years.
A bit like enforced mask wearing, now what was the daily positive case rate when mask wearing in shops was introduced? We are full tilt martingale mask wearing system now. In two weeks masks wearing will be enforced in offices and in another two weeks in all outdoor spaces. By December we will be wearing nuclear suits at all times.
Tomorrow night I will attend the pub. I must now wear a mask as I walk through the pub on arrival, when I sit down at a table with people not from my household I do not need to wear a mask, but when i go to to the toilet I do. Now that really makes sense.
The problem is, you think the government should be ranking risk activities, and using that as the basis of restrictions, such as mask wearing.
That makes perfect sense, right?
Wrong.
The government wants to minimise the spread of CV19, while also minimising the economic impact.
If you want to do something that increases R (like having schools and universities go back), then you need to find other measures that reduce it. Even if those measures are lower risk, you need to proscribe them to allow activities with higher R (but greater societal impact) to happen.
I know we will never agree but if you look at the graphs a week after mask wearing in shops was introduced in July cases started increasing.
Sure we'll agree. In six months time the science will be even more settled, and it will be obvious who won our bet.
Yet this is exactly what most people who know or have worked with Boris expected from the beginning. I don’t see any particular reason to think he is still ill.
I want to play a game with the still ill theorists: I give them 20 stills or videos of Boris, 10 from Jan to March and 10 from June to August, and they have to allocate them correctly. He always looks like that.
He's also a new father, of a screaming baby, at the age of 56. He is bound to look totally fucked all the time.
Isn't the mother of his child on holiday right now?
She didn’t have the same need to rush back from Perugia.
Says man who campaigned to end free trade with Europe.
No he didn't, he's always advocated having a free trade agreement with Europe, just as the Tories are still seeking to negotiate.
The EU != free trade.
An FTA with the EU will be far less ambitious than the Single Market. The "free trade" argument for leaving the EU is at best ill-informed, but more likely just dishonest.
The EU is less than 6% of the planet's population and is rapidly shrinking as a share of global GDP and trade.
The future is not little Europeanism, it is embracing the globe as Britain has successfully done for centuries. I expect in my lifetime we will trade more with Asia than with Europe.
Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier to trade with Asia. Countries like Germany, even Italy, are more successful at trading with Asia than we are, and don't seem to need to leave the EU to do so. Plus of course there is the role of distance in explaining trade intensities (size and distance being the main drivers of trade) which explains why we trade more with countries a short drive away than those on the other side of the planet. This whole global Britain stuff is just economically illiterate guff for weak-minded imperial nostalgics.
They may be more successful but even they're not doing that great. Germany has been shrinking relative to the rest of the globe. This is the problem of narcissistically only thinking about Europe, there's a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
In 1993 when the EEC became the EU, Germany made up 5.2% of global GDP. In 2018 Germany was just 2.9% of global GDP.
Look how Germany has fallen behind or grown slower than so many other countries in the past three decades:
GDP per capita: 1993 (EEC becomes the EU) ... 2018 Germany $25,522 ... $47,603 USA $26,387 ... $62,794 Singapore $18,290 ... $64,581 Australia $17,634 ... $51,373 New Zealand $13,094 ... $41,945 Canada $20,121 ... $46,233 South Korea $8,741 ... $31,362
That is, as anyone can see clearly a completely absurd argument. In the 1800’s the U.K. had 10% of global GDP and that fell massively before we joined the EU. So I assume you would argue that joining the EU was ‘good’ for the U.K. Frankly when arguments become that absurd to justify Brexit you really have to wonder. Yes developing countries grow faster than developed countries. Now where do bears go when the need the toilet.
It isn't absurd since apart from South Korea none of the nations listed were developing countries.
I wonder if Sunak is so likely to be the next leader that laying him is good value
Yes, Boris and the c*** will try and hand him political defeat after defeat to destroy his credibility even if it means taking down the whole country by destabilising the treasury. They care more about their agenda than the future if the nation.
The same Boris who promoted Rishi to Chief Secretary to the Treasury as soon as he became PM, trusted him to represent him in a general election debate, and then (with Cummings) unceremoniously forced Javid out because they wanted Rishi to be the Chancellor so much?
It's a view.
Indeed. The reason I tipped Rishi last year was in part because his rise had already started and it was clear he was being trusted in a way others weren't.
I don't think Boris can sack Rishi now any more than Blair could get rid of Brown in his later years.
Blair and Brown at least started off with a "gentleman agreement'. Something which Johnson would neither understand nor consider binding.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
It's already happened. It cannot be undone. We need to move on but the pressure to deliver a deal will be immense. Which is a good thing.
People aren't going to be regretting their motivation for voting Leave (stricter immigration rules) on the back of Covid-19
No, they're not. As we have already left there are limited possibilities.
We might negotiate a sensible deal with the EU which acknowledges our standards are their standards and equivalent with protections for both sides in the event that changes in the future. Still the most likely, in my opinion. We might have a more limited deal which will cause minor disruption and inconvenience that may get sorted out in subsequent discussions but which drag on a bit causing a moderate reduction in mutual trade. We might end up with pretty much no deal at all in which case there will be more disruption and no doubt considerable irritation with the result our trade with the EU will fall more significantly.
Clearly option 1 is the best for both parties and both parties have more incentives not to have any additional interference with trade given the problems of Covid but whatever will be will be. What is not on the table is some rejoining of the EU in the foreseeable. It's just not going to happen and I wish people would stop pretending that this is even a possibility.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
It's already happened. It cannot be undone. We need to move on but the pressure to deliver a deal will be immense. Which is a good thing.
People aren't going to be regretting their motivation for voting Leave (stricter immigration rules) on the back of Covid-19
No, they're not. As we have already left there are limited possibilities.
We might negotiate a sensible deal with the EU which acknowledges our standards are their standards and equivalent with protections for both sides in the event that changes in the future. Still the most likely, in my opinion. We might have a more limited deal which will cause minor disruption and inconvenience that may get sorted out in subsequent discussions but which drag on a bit causing a moderate reduction in mutual trade. We might end up with pretty much no deal at all in which case there will be more disruption and no doubt considerable irritation with the result our trade with the EU will fall more significantly.
Clearly option 1 is the best for both parties and both parties have more incentives not to have any additional interference with trade given the problems of Covid but whatever will be will be. What is not on the table is some rejoining of the EU in the foreseeable. It's just not going to happen and I wish people would stop pretending that this is even a possibility.
I'm not predicting any sudden move to rejoin, that's absurd - but what I can see happening, if we approach a real crisis in Covid, is an emergency extension of the transition.
I wonder if Sunak is so likely to be the next leader that laying him is good value
Yes, Boris and the c*** will try and hand him political defeat after defeat to destroy his credibility even if it means taking down the whole country by destabilising the treasury. They care more about their agenda than the future if the nation.
The same Boris who promoted Rishi to Chief Secretary to the Treasury as soon as he became PM, trusted him to represent him in a general election debate, and then (with Cummings) unceremoniously forced Javid out because they wanted Rishi to be the Chancellor so much?
It's a view.
You make a good point, however many a person will have happily aided the rise of another until they feared they might then rise on their own, at their expense.
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
EDIT Whoops, apologies. I didn't read it and that is Boris vs Rishi. He leads Starmer 33-25 on personality, so still an advantage for the Conservatives. I wonder how they match up on the other attributes
Yet this is exactly what most people who know or have worked with Boris expected from the beginning. I don’t see any particular reason to think he is still ill.
I want to play a game with the still ill theorists: I give them 20 stills or videos of Boris, 10 from Jan to March and 10 from June to August, and they have to allocate them correctly. He always looks like that.
He's also a new father, of a screaming baby, at the age of 56. He is bound to look totally fucked all the time.
Isn't the mother of his child on holiday right now?
She didn’t have the same need to rush back from Perugia.
Oh no, Perugia-truthers are a thing now, aren't they?
Says man who campaigned to end free trade with Europe.
No he didn't, he's always advocated having a free trade agreement with Europe, just as the Tories are still seeking to negotiate.
The EU != free trade.
An FTA with the EU will be far less ambitious than the Single Market. The "free trade" argument for leaving the EU is at best ill-informed, but more likely just dishonest.
The EU is less than 6% of the planet's population and is rapidly shrinking as a share of global GDP and trade.
The future is not little Europeanism, it is embracing the globe as Britain has successfully done for centuries. I expect in my lifetime we will trade more with Asia than with Europe.
Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier to trade with Asia. Countries like Germany, even Italy, are more successful at trading with Asia than we are, and don't seem to need to leave the EU to do so. Plus of course there is the role of distance in explaining trade intensities (size and distance being the main drivers of trade) which explains why we trade more with countries a short drive away than those on the other side of the planet. This whole global Britain stuff is just economically illiterate guff for weak-minded imperial nostalgics.
They may be more successful but even they're not doing that great. Germany has been shrinking relative to the rest of the globe. This is the problem of narcissistically only thinking about Europe, there's a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
In 1993 when the EEC became the EU, Germany made up 5.2% of global GDP. In 2018 Germany was just 2.9% of global GDP.
Look how Germany has fallen behind or grown slower than so many other countries in the past three decades:
GDP per capita: 1993 (EEC becomes the EU) ... 2018 Germany $25,522 ... $47,603 USA $26,387 ... $62,794 Singapore $18,290 ... $64,581 Australia $17,634 ... $51,373 New Zealand $13,094 ... $41,945 Canada $20,121 ... $46,233 South Korea $8,741 ... $31,362
You do need to be slightly cautious about using numbers in US Dollars, because the strength or weakness of currencies (and in particular start and end dates) can have massive impacts on figures, without actually having anything to do with underlying economic performance.
So, back in 2007, a pound (at its peak) was worth about $2.10. 18 months later it $1.37. Measuring in US Dollars, you'd think the British economy had lost more than a third of its value.
Better to use real economic growth measured in local currency.
So what's the scores on the doors? My access to the dashboard is playing up again. Says it is updated, but I only see yesterdays numbers.
6,874 newly reported cases, 34 newly reported deaths (no Scotland due to a power outage), 374 new hospital admissions not including Scotland, 1855 people in hospital.
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
EDIT Whoops, apologies. I didn't read it and that is Boris vs Rishi. He leads Starmer 33-25 on personality, so still an advantage for the Conservatives. I wonder how they match up on the other attributes
Major was probably duller than Kinnock but more centrist, same with May and Corbyn, Starmer will try and present himself as more centrist than Boris in the same way
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
On population adjusted case rates, no European country other than Andorra is as bad as the US. On deaths, Andorra, Spain, San Marino and Belgium are the only ones that are worse, but the US is slowly making its way up the table, its rise in cases having lagged those in Europe.
The Bar Council has snuffed out an attempt by controversial barrister Henry Hendron to nominate himself as a candidate in its upcoming elections.
Hendron, who was suspended from practice for three years in 2016 after he admitted supplying drugs which killed his boyfriend at a chemsex orgy in Temple, was seeking to join the regulator to oversee the profession.
He submitted his bid at 16:57 on Monday, three minutes before the deadline.
At 16:58, the Bar Council's executive team rejected his application, informing him that printing 'HH' as his signature was insufficient. Hendron volleyed back a hand-signed version which he says would have arrived no later than 17:01.
But he was told his application was still being rejected because he was out of time. "You can't be serious about that?" replied the barrister, who won his appeal against a second suspension in 2019.
However, head of Governance Natalie Zara was indeed serious, and informed Hendron she was "unable to correspond any further on this matter" with him.
The barrister, who has acted for Conservative politicians Nigel Evans and Nadine Dorries, intends to escalate the matter to the courts, and has made an application in the RCJ to validate his nomination and get himself back on the ballot.
Hendron argued in his nomination's supporting statement that "to lead change we need a Bar Council which is diverse in every respect, which includes and embraces all, from the young radicals to the old dinosaurs of the bar, and those in between the two".
He continued, "I am (very!) openly gay, opinionated (but in a reasoned (and I hope nice way!)), tolerant and compassionate and I believe that the Bar needs to stand up and lead the change in the legal sector, and not simply respond to change thrust upon it".
Hendron told RollOnFriday it was ironic that his statement addressed how the Bar Council should be 'leading change', "yet at the heart of its own election process it seemingly fights any change at all by its stubborn refusal to adapt with the times and allow electronic signature".
He said the requirement for a handwritten signature specified in the nomination guidance was "no doubt" added by "some administrative junky [sic]" within the Bar Council.
The Bar Council did not respond to requests for comment.
The man's a twat but some organisations really don't help themselves, do they?
IF deadlines AND signature requirement were part of nomination rules, then he has NO CASE - surely a lawyer could figure THAT out.
Maybe he and Kanye West should get together and compare notes?
Surely a decent barrister (if he is one) can argue electronic signatures count. There will be plenty who have used them in the last six months, yours truly included.
But the rules specifically required HANDWRITTEN signatures?
quite. Might be a silly rule but if - if - that is what is required then the problem is on him, particularly for leaving it to the last minute.
Sometimes people cannot help submitting things last minute but sometimes people do it with me seemingly to be difficult and it makes it too late to then help them.
So what's the scores on the doors? My access to the dashboard is playing up again. Says it is updated, but I only see yesterdays numbers.
6,874 newly reported cases, 34 newly reported deaths (no Scotland due to a power outage), 374 new hospital admissions not including Scotland, 1855 people in hospital.
So is that 6874 without Scotland? That will put us over 7k again.
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
EDIT Whoops, apologies. I didn't read it and that is Boris vs Rishi. He leads Starmer 33-25 on personality, so still an advantage for the Conservatives. I wonder how they match up on the other attributes
Major was probably duller than Kinnock but more centrist, same with May and Corbyn, Starmer will try and present himself as more centrist than Boris in the same way
Major was also the incumbent, so didn't need to be as persuasive. I reckon that is a factor in the personality puzzle
'From now on'. So it's a choice, fair enough, and one they are adjusting on, not some immutable law that people are unreasonable for questioning
It's an immutable law that, as Thatcher put it: "By turning our backs we would forfeit our right to influence what happens in the Community. But what happens in the Community will inevitably affect us."
What happens in the Community may affect us, but it doesn't mean we need to be a part of the Community.
The moon affects us. The moon affects the waves, but we don't need to be in some sort of political lunar union to attempt to influence that.
Of course she also said that in 1975 and much had changed since then, not least that the Community of 1975 no longer exists. The EEC (even excluding the UK) in 1975 made up roughly a quarter of global GDP. The EU now even with many more members than then is now roughly a tenth and fast falling of GDP. It is simply not as important as it used to be anymore.
To me it looks like the testing crunch is easing (just in time for freshers week), we seem to have results for around 50% of people within 48h, that's a number which is rising again. The by specimen day dataset also seems to show a slowdown in the acceleration of new cases. Hopefully as the new measures bed in we'll see a peak at around 6k per day and then a gradual drop off. It's definitely not time to hit the panic button and stop students from coming home or anything so drastic.
So what's the scores on the doors? My access to the dashboard is playing up again. Says it is updated, but I only see yesterdays numbers.
6,874 newly reported cases, 34 newly reported deaths (no Scotland due to a power outage), 374 new hospital admissions not including Scotland, 1855 people in hospital.
So is that 6874 without Scotland? That will put us over 7k again.
Cases include Scotland as it's compiled by PHE rather than the NRS.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Says man who campaigned to end free trade with Europe.
No he didn't, he's always advocated having a free trade agreement with Europe, just as the Tories are still seeking to negotiate.
The EU != free trade.
An FTA with the EU will be far less ambitious than the Single Market. The "free trade" argument for leaving the EU is at best ill-informed, but more likely just dishonest.
The EU is less than 6% of the planet's population and is rapidly shrinking as a share of global GDP and trade.
The future is not little Europeanism, it is embracing the globe as Britain has successfully done for centuries. I expect in my lifetime we will trade more with Asia than with Europe.
Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier to trade with Asia. Countries like Germany, even Italy, are more successful at trading with Asia than we are, and don't seem to need to leave the EU to do so. Plus of course there is the role of distance in explaining trade intensities (size and distance being the main drivers of trade) which explains why we trade more with countries a short drive away than those on the other side of the planet. This whole global Britain stuff is just economically illiterate guff for weak-minded imperial nostalgics.
They may be more successful but even they're not doing that great. Germany has been shrinking relative to the rest of the globe. This is the problem of narcissistically only thinking about Europe, there's a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
In 1993 when the EEC became the EU, Germany made up 5.2% of global GDP. In 2018 Germany was just 2.9% of global GDP.
Look how Germany has fallen behind or grown slower than so many other countries in the past three decades:
GDP per capita: 1993 (EEC becomes the EU) ... 2018 Germany $25,522 ... $47,603 USA $26,387 ... $62,794 Singapore $18,290 ... $64,581 Australia $17,634 ... $51,373 New Zealand $13,094 ... $41,945 Canada $20,121 ... $46,233 South Korea $8,741 ... $31,362
You do need to be slightly cautious about using numbers in US Dollars, because the strength or weakness of currencies (and in particular start and end dates) can have massive impacts on figures, without actually having anything to do with underlying economic performance.
So, back in 2007, a pound (at its peak) was worth about $2.10. 18 months later it $1.37. Measuring in US Dollars, you'd think the British economy had lost more than a third of its value.
Better to use real economic growth measured in local currency.
That's a fair point.
I'm skeptical it would make a major difference, but it is a very fair point.
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
He has a lot of personality. Most of it unsuited to the circumstances.
It wasnt even a poll ft Starmer! But Rishi vs Starmer is 33-25
In an election campaign, you need a charismatic candidate, esp as the oppo. That's why I think Starmer will struggle
You may be right on that. I am actually surprised Boris doesn't score higher. Even I would have to agree were I to be surveyed. But Peter Kay has a lot of personality too. I wouldn't see it as a good reason to vote for him.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
EDIT Whoops, apologies. I didn't read it and that is Boris vs Rishi. He leads Starmer 33-25 on personality, so still an advantage for the Conservatives. I wonder how they match up on the other attributes
Major was probably duller than Kinnock but more centrist, same with May and Corbyn, Starmer will try and present himself as more centrist than Boris in the same way
Major was also the incumbent, so didn't need to be as persuasive. I reckon that is a factor in the personality puzzle
Also depends on length of time out of power eg the dull Hollande beat the more charismatic Sarkozy in France in 2012 after 17 years of the Socialists being out of the Elysee
Says man who campaigned to end free trade with Europe.
No he didn't, he's always advocated having a free trade agreement with Europe, just as the Tories are still seeking to negotiate.
The EU != free trade.
An FTA with the EU will be far less ambitious than the Single Market. The "free trade" argument for leaving the EU is at best ill-informed, but more likely just dishonest.
The EU is less than 6% of the planet's population and is rapidly shrinking as a share of global GDP and trade.
The future is not little Europeanism, it is embracing the globe as Britain has successfully done for centuries. I expect in my lifetime we will trade more with Asia than with Europe.
Leaving the EU doesn't make it easier to trade with Asia. Countries like Germany, even Italy, are more successful at trading with Asia than we are, and don't seem to need to leave the EU to do so. Plus of course there is the role of distance in explaining trade intensities (size and distance being the main drivers of trade) which explains why we trade more with countries a short drive away than those on the other side of the planet. This whole global Britain stuff is just economically illiterate guff for weak-minded imperial nostalgics.
They may be more successful but even they're not doing that great. Germany has been shrinking relative to the rest of the globe. This is the problem of narcissistically only thinking about Europe, there's a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
In 1993 when the EEC became the EU, Germany made up 5.2% of global GDP. In 2018 Germany was just 2.9% of global GDP.
Look how Germany has fallen behind or grown slower than so many other countries in the past three decades:
GDP per capita: 1993 (EEC becomes the EU) ... 2018 Germany $25,522 ... $47,603 USA $26,387 ... $62,794 Singapore $18,290 ... $64,581 Australia $17,634 ... $51,373 New Zealand $13,094 ... $41,945 Canada $20,121 ... $46,233 South Korea $8,741 ... $31,362
You do need to be slightly cautious about using numbers in US Dollars, because the strength or weakness of currencies (and in particular start and end dates) can have massive impacts on figures, without actually having anything to do with underlying economic performance.
So, back in 2007, a pound (at its peak) was worth about $2.10. 18 months later it $1.37. Measuring in US Dollars, you'd think the British economy had lost more than a third of its value.
Better to use real economic growth measured in local currency.
That's a fair point.
I'm skeptical it would make a major difference, but it is a very fair point.
For developed countries, I would suspect that changing dependency ratio will be the biggest determinant of economic performance.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem be revealed as a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
To me it looks like the testing crunch is easing (just in time for freshers week), we seem to have results for around 50% of people within 48h, that's a number which is rising again. The by specimen day dataset also seems to show a slowdown in the acceleration of new cases. Hopefully as the new measures bed in we'll see a peak at around 6k per day and then a gradual drop off. It's definitely not time to hit the panic button and stop students from coming home or anything so drastic.
245k tests processed is really quite impressive, if not yet enough.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
85% will and 15% won't. Many of the 85% will comply to make sure they avoid the 15%.
One good thing about the 90%+ mask-wearing in shops, buses etc is that it makes it so easy to spot the numpties and give them a wide berth.
Or their names might be Jonathan Sumption, Peter Hitchens, Anders Tegnell, Prof John Ioaniddis, Emeritus Prof Beda Stadler, Prof Michael Levitt, Dr Malcolm Kendrick, Dr Ivor Cummins et al.
The only positive outcome of this has been that
1 distancing (but 1 m is the recommended figure) 2 some forms of better hygiene
have been found to be useful in reducing the spread of all viruses incl flu (but not masks so far).
Flu viruses are trickier to deal with than coronaviruses. In a repeat of 2017-18, when the flu vaccine failed and the NHS was badly overloaded, it would be sensible to use 1&2 to keep cases within NHS capacity.
Other than that, I'm afraid Whitty and Vallance can go take a running jump and the PM can stick his mask where the sun doesn't shine. Give me my life back and stop ruining the economy.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
The Bar Council has snuffed out an attempt by controversial barrister Henry Hendron to nominate himself as a candidate in its upcoming elections.
Hendron, who was suspended from practice for three years in 2016 after he admitted supplying drugs which killed his boyfriend at a chemsex orgy in Temple, was seeking to join the regulator to oversee the profession.
He submitted his bid at 16:57 on Monday, three minutes before the deadline.
At 16:58, the Bar Council's executive team rejected his application, informing him that printing 'HH' as his signature was insufficient. Hendron volleyed back a hand-signed version which he says would have arrived no later than 17:01.
But he was told his application was still being rejected because he was out of time. "You can't be serious about that?" replied the barrister, who won his appeal against a second suspension in 2019.
However, head of Governance Natalie Zara was indeed serious, and informed Hendron she was "unable to correspond any further on this matter" with him.
The barrister, who has acted for Conservative politicians Nigel Evans and Nadine Dorries, intends to escalate the matter to the courts, and has made an application in the RCJ to validate his nomination and get himself back on the ballot.
Hendron argued in his nomination's supporting statement that "to lead change we need a Bar Council which is diverse in every respect, which includes and embraces all, from the young radicals to the old dinosaurs of the bar, and those in between the two".
He continued, "I am (very!) openly gay, opinionated (but in a reasoned (and I hope nice way!)), tolerant and compassionate and I believe that the Bar needs to stand up and lead the change in the legal sector, and not simply respond to change thrust upon it".
Hendron told RollOnFriday it was ironic that his statement addressed how the Bar Council should be 'leading change', "yet at the heart of its own election process it seemingly fights any change at all by its stubborn refusal to adapt with the times and allow electronic signature".
He said the requirement for a handwritten signature specified in the nomination guidance was "no doubt" added by "some administrative junky [sic]" within the Bar Council.
The Bar Council did not respond to requests for comment.
The man's a twat but some organisations really don't help themselves, do they?
IF deadlines AND signature requirement were part of nomination rules, then he has NO CASE - surely a lawyer could figure THAT out.
Maybe he and Kanye West should get together and compare notes?
Surely a decent barrister (if he is one) can argue electronic signatures count. There will be plenty who have used them in the last six months, yours truly included.
But the rules specifically required HANDWRITTEN signatures?
quite. Might be a silly rule but if - if - that is what is required then the problem is on him, particularly for leaving it to the last minute.
Sometimes people cannot help submitting things last minute but sometimes people do it with me seemingly to be difficult and it makes it too late to then help them.
About ten years ago, was in King Co (Washington) election office on the last day of candidate filing for that year's primary and general election. Was first year candidates had option of filing on line, including paying any required filing fee by credit card.
An hour or so before the 4;30pm deadline, heard an election supervisor talking on phone to member of local city council who was having trouble using the on-line system to file for re-election. Why she waited so long (filing period was from Mon-Fri of that week) Lord knows, but she lived too far away to drive to the election office in time. I offered to pay her filing fee, but was refused due to regulation that candidates filing electronically also had to pay electronically.
When she missed the filing deadline, she sued King Co in court. At the hearing, testimony showed that the system used by the county to collect payments on-line was VERY poor (the reason why her payment info didn't go through) and also that someone (me) had offered to pay the fee in cash before the deadline.
So the judge ruled in her favor, and ordered the county to place her name on the primary ballot. With result she came in third in the Top Two primary, and was thus eliminated.
She lost for other reasons beside the filing snafu, but it WAS a contributory factor. Because some voters said, why the heck did she wait until the last minute? Sure sounds dumb.
In current case, suspect that the land pirate in question is NOT a serious candidate but instead wants PUBLICITY.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
The Bar Council has snuffed out an attempt by controversial barrister Henry Hendron to nominate himself as a candidate in its upcoming elections.
Hendron, who was suspended from practice for three years in 2016 after he admitted supplying drugs which killed his boyfriend at a chemsex orgy in Temple, was seeking to join the regulator to oversee the profession.
He submitted his bid at 16:57 on Monday, three minutes before the deadline.
At 16:58, the Bar Council's executive team rejected his application, informing him that printing 'HH' as his signature was insufficient. Hendron volleyed back a hand-signed version which he says would have arrived no later than 17:01.
But he was told his application was still being rejected because he was out of time. "You can't be serious about that?" replied the barrister, who won his appeal against a second suspension in 2019.
However, head of Governance Natalie Zara was indeed serious, and informed Hendron she was "unable to correspond any further on this matter" with him.
The barrister, who has acted for Conservative politicians Nigel Evans and Nadine Dorries, intends to escalate the matter to the courts, and has made an application in the RCJ to validate his nomination and get himself back on the ballot.
Hendron argued in his nomination's supporting statement that "to lead change we need a Bar Council which is diverse in every respect, which includes and embraces all, from the young radicals to the old dinosaurs of the bar, and those in between the two".
He continued, "I am (very!) openly gay, opinionated (but in a reasoned (and I hope nice way!)), tolerant and compassionate and I believe that the Bar needs to stand up and lead the change in the legal sector, and not simply respond to change thrust upon it".
Hendron told RollOnFriday it was ironic that his statement addressed how the Bar Council should be 'leading change', "yet at the heart of its own election process it seemingly fights any change at all by its stubborn refusal to adapt with the times and allow electronic signature".
He said the requirement for a handwritten signature specified in the nomination guidance was "no doubt" added by "some administrative junky [sic]" within the Bar Council.
The Bar Council did not respond to requests for comment.
The man's a twat but some organisations really don't help themselves, do they?
IF deadlines AND signature requirement were part of nomination rules, then he has NO CASE - surely a lawyer could figure THAT out.
Maybe he and Kanye West should get together and compare notes?
Surely a decent barrister (if he is one) can argue electronic signatures count. There will be plenty who have used them in the last six months, yours truly included.
But the rules specifically required HANDWRITTEN signatures?
quite. Might be a silly rule but if - if - that is what is required then the problem is on him, particularly for leaving it to the last minute.
Sometimes people cannot help submitting things last minute but sometimes people do it with me seemingly to be difficult and it makes it too late to then help them.
About ten years ago, was in King Co (Washington) election office on the last day of candidate filing for that year's primary and general election. Was first year candidates had option of filing on line, including paying any required filing fee by credit card.
An hour or so before the 4;30pm deadline, heard an election supervisor talking on phone to member of local city council who was having trouble using the on-line system to file for re-election. Why she waited so long (filing period was from Mon-Fri of that week) Lord knows, but she lived too far away to drive to the election office in time. I offered to pay her filing fee, but was refused due to regulation that candidates filing electronically also had to pay electronically.
When she missed the filing deadline, she sued King Co in court. At the hearing, testimony showed that the system used by the county to collect payments on-line was VERY poor (the reason why her payment info didn't go through) and also that someone (me) had offered to pay the fee in cash before the deadline.
So the judge ruled in her favor, and ordered the county to place her name on the primary ballot. With result she came in third in the Top Two primary, and was thus eliminated.
She lost for other reasons beside the filing snafu, but it WAS a contributory factor. Because some voters said, why the heck did she wait until the last minute? Sure sounds dumb.
In current case, suspect that the land pirate in question is NOT a serious candidate but instead wants PUBLICITY.
He's got his wish.
Not being able to file correctly even dumbly does not speak well to competence, but it'll be interesting if they can succeed in this instance.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
Except that hardly any of the details you predicted came to pass. No million(s) of deaths in the UK, no billions of cases worldwide by May, no mass civil disorder, nor any of the rest.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
I agree. My point was simply that it is a too all-encompassing measure to be assessing purely the medical impact (and by implication the effectiveness of the response to) the virus. It brings in lots of other factors.
Comments
But if economies are collapsing across the world, and angry populations are locked indoors, and civil disorder is breaking out in western cities, and America is torn into violent pieces, then Brexit will just look utterly STUPID, and I reckon polls might reflect that, which will entirely change the British political context
But, I suspect that if he pulls off some deal that Farage and a few of nutters from ERG decide is the greatest betrayal of Britain since Chamberlain, the rest of UK will not give a flying f**k because we are too busy trying to stay alive and out of intensive care.
There’s also been some snow in the Alps, normally doesn’t come until October
But if you think Germany isn't a good example feel free to pick any other major European economy and show any that have performed better than global standards since 1993? The UK? France? Be my guest.
I don't think Boris can sack Rishi now any more than Blair could get rid of Brown in his later years.
0/10 must try harder.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1309511782139076608?s=20
https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/status/1309512324055732224?s=20
We might negotiate a sensible deal with the EU which acknowledges our standards are their standards and equivalent with protections for both sides in the event that changes in the future. Still the most likely, in my opinion.
We might have a more limited deal which will cause minor disruption and inconvenience that may get sorted out in subsequent discussions but which drag on a bit causing a moderate reduction in mutual trade.
We might end up with pretty much no deal at all in which case there will be more disruption and no doubt considerable irritation with the result our trade with the EU will fall more significantly.
Clearly option 1 is the best for both parties and both parties have more incentives not to have any additional interference with trade given the problems of Covid but whatever will be will be. What is not on the table is some rejoining of the EU in the foreseeable. It's just not going to happen and I wish people would stop pretending that this is even a possibility.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1309507668680286210?s=20
One good thing about the 90%+ mask-wearing in shops, buses etc is that it makes it so easy to spot the numpties and give them a wide berth.
Boris 67
Sir Keir 25"
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
EDIT Whoops, apologies. I didn't read it and that is Boris vs Rishi. He leads Starmer 33-25 on personality, so still an advantage for the Conservatives. I wonder how they match up on the other attributes
"Pro-EU theme park Mini-Europe to close its doors thanks to coronavirus"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/pro-eu-theme-park-mini-europe-to-close-its-doors-thanks-to-coronavirus
Oh no, Perugia-truthers are a thing now, aren't they?
'Produce the long-form baptism certificate!'
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1309504987605630976?s=20
So, back in 2007, a pound (at its peak) was worth about $2.10. 18 months later it $1.37. Measuring in US Dollars, you'd think the British economy had lost more than a third of its value.
Better to use real economic growth measured in local currency.
Most of it unsuited to the circumstances.
In an election campaign, you need a charismatic candidate, esp as the oppo. That's why I think Starmer will struggle
Sometimes people cannot help submitting things last minute but sometimes people do it with me seemingly to be difficult and it makes it too late to then help them.
The moon affects us. The moon affects the waves, but we don't need to be in some sort of political lunar union to attempt to influence that.
Of course she also said that in 1975 and much had changed since then, not least that the Community of 1975 no longer exists. The EEC (even excluding the UK) in 1975 made up roughly a quarter of global GDP. The EU now even with many more members than then is now roughly a tenth and fast falling of GDP. It is simply not as important as it used to be anymore.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1309381572592893954?s=20
The sky is darkening, my friends. Winter approaches.
I'm skeptical it would make a major difference, but it is a very fair point.
I am actually surprised Boris doesn't score higher. Even I would have to agree were I to be surveyed.
But Peter Kay has a lot of personality too. I wouldn't see it as a good reason to vote for him.
https://twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1309514344137478144
https://www.youtube.com/embed//tAIHGaaCkG8?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2009&utm_content=events
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
The only positive outcome of this has been that
1 distancing (but 1 m is the recommended figure)
2 some forms of better hygiene
have been found to be useful in reducing the spread of all viruses incl flu (but not masks so far).
Flu viruses are trickier to deal with than coronaviruses. In a repeat of 2017-18, when the flu vaccine failed and the NHS was badly overloaded, it would be sensible to use 1&2 to keep cases within NHS capacity.
Other than that, I'm afraid Whitty and Vallance can go take a running jump and the PM can stick his mask where the sun doesn't shine. Give me my life back and stop ruining the economy.
An hour or so before the 4;30pm deadline, heard an election supervisor talking on phone to member of local city council who was having trouble using the on-line system to file for re-election. Why she waited so long (filing period was from Mon-Fri of that week) Lord knows, but she lived too far away to drive to the election office in time. I offered to pay her filing fee, but was refused due to regulation that candidates filing electronically also had to pay electronically.
When she missed the filing deadline, she sued King Co in court. At the hearing, testimony showed that the system used by the county to collect payments on-line was VERY poor (the reason why her payment info didn't go through) and also that someone (me) had offered to pay the fee in cash before the deadline.
So the judge ruled in her favor, and ordered the county to place her name on the primary ballot. With result she came in third in the Top Two primary, and was thus eliminated.
She lost for other reasons beside the filing snafu, but it WAS a contributory factor. Because some voters said, why the heck did she wait until the last minute? Sure sounds dumb.
In current case, suspect that the land pirate in question is NOT a serious candidate but instead wants PUBLICITY.
He's got his wish.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
Here is the real context.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1309522702487760896