USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
It's very likely going to be harder for us than most. We're already among those suffering the most from Covid, but the LSE recently estimated that Brexit will cause an overall reduction in GDP between 2 (deal) and 3 (no deal) times that of Covid. The combination of the two, in the middle of winter, could well be crippling.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
Except that hardly any of the details you predicted came to pass. No million(s) of deaths in the UK, no billions of cases worldwide by May, no mass civil disorder, nor any of the rest.
Go back and look. Those were my extreme worst case scenarios. Things that were HIGHLY unlikely, but possible.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
It's very likely going to be harder for us than most. We're already among those suffering the most from Covid, but the LSE recently estimated that Brexit will cause an overall reduction in GDP between 2 (deal) and 3 (no deal) times that of Covid. The combination of the two, in the middle of winter, could well be crippling.
Covid caused a drop of GDP of over 20% in a quarter. So you are predicting a fall of GDP between 40 and 60%?? Even the most fanatical end of the worlder might balk at that.
In fact the effects of Covid will be hundreds of times more severe than any impact from Brexit, at least for this year and next.
We live in strange times. Maybe Sir Keir will be the first LotO in over 40 years to become PM whilst thought of as the duller of the two contenders
He has a lot of personality. Most of it unsuited to the circumstances.
It wasnt even a poll ft Starmer! But Rishi vs Starmer is 33-25
In an election campaign, you need a charismatic candidate, esp as the oppo. That's why I think Starmer will struggle
Churchill vs Attlee? Twice.
Too long ago. People are more enamoured with celebrity and frivolity than ever - Reality tv, YouTube influencers etc etc. Everyne on twitter and instagram thinks they are a personality, and all the popular people are extroverts now
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
It's very likely going to be harder for us than most. We're already among those suffering the most from Covid, but the LSE recently estimated that Brexit will cause an overall reduction in GDP between 2 (deal) and 3 (no deal) times that of Covid. The combination of the two, in the middle of winter, could well be crippling.
I'm quite pessimistic at the moment, but these stats are absurdly gloomy.
Covid is going to knock off anything between 5-15% of GDP this year. Let's say 10% as a midpoint. Horrendous.
Does the LSE really believe Brexit will take away 20-30% of GDP? That's worse than a terrible, terrible war.
I do however agree that the combo of both is a nightmare.
That's a rather misleading tweet that makes the current numbers look far worse relative to the history than they actually are.
I disagree, it's not misleading at all. Of course we all know that the figures were much worse in the late spring. What's worrying is the rate of increase (and remember this is a lagging indicator by a couple of weeks).
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
Except that hardly any of the details you predicted came to pass. No million(s) of deaths in the UK, no billions of cases worldwide by May, no mass civil disorder, nor any of the rest.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
It's very likely going to be harder for us than most. We're already among those suffering the most from Covid, but the LSE recently estimated that Brexit will cause an overall reduction in GDP between 2 (deal) and 3 (no deal) times that of Covid. The combination of the two, in the middle of winter, could well be crippling.
Covid caused a drop of GDP of over 20% in a quarter. So you are predicting a fall of GDP between 40 and 60%?? Even the most fanatical end of the worlder might balk at that.
In fact the effects of Covid will be hundreds of times more severe than any impact from Brexit, at least for this year and next.
"As Tim Shipman put it “In the midst of the worst recession in living memory, the downsides of red tape and potential tariffs seem to many in Johnson’s team like a thimble of spit in a tsunami.” There is an obvious flaw in advocating Brexit on the basis that it’s less costly than the worst pandemic the world has faced in a hundred years. But this aside, the claim COVID-19 is a bigger economic shock than Brexit deserves further interrogation. It places undue weight on the dramatic, but mostly temporary, impacts of COVID-19, compared to the larger, long-term costs of Brexit. In fact, when measured in terms of their impact on the present value of UK GDP, the Brexit shock is forecast to be two to three times greater than the impact of COVID-19."
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
Anyone know the stats for excess deaths - recent, I mean - last three months say?
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
Except that hardly any of the details you predicted came to pass. No million(s) of deaths in the UK, no billions of cases worldwide by May, no mass civil disorder, nor any of the rest.
But LadyG didn`t join PB.com until June...
Shh.
Fact is, there hasn’t been a less reliable predictor of events on here than our north London friend.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I get it too. It's not terrible but it's not nice. I haven't done a Full English Winter for about 15 years. I always manage a few weeks of sun, somehow, and it keeps me sane.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
It's already happened. It cannot be undone. We need to move on but the pressure to deliver a deal will be immense. Which is a good thing.
People aren't going to be regretting their motivation for voting Leave (stricter immigration rules) on the back of Covid-19
No, they're not. As we have already left there are limited possibilities.
We might negotiate a sensible deal with the EU which acknowledges our standards are their standards and equivalent with protections for both sides in the event that changes in the future. Still the most likely, in my opinion. We might have a more limited deal which will cause minor disruption and inconvenience that may get sorted out in subsequent discussions but which drag on a bit causing a moderate reduction in mutual trade. We might end up with pretty much no deal at all in which case there will be more disruption and no doubt considerable irritation with the result our trade with the EU will fall more significantly.
Clearly option 1 is the best for both parties and both parties have more incentives not to have any additional interference with trade given the problems of Covid but whatever will be will be. What is not on the table is some rejoining of the EU in the foreseeable. It's just not going to happen and I wish people would stop pretending that this is even a possibility.
Problem, absent a SM+CU type arrangement there isn't a minor disruption and inconvenience option available and I don't see SM+CU as a realistic option in the short and possibly longer term. It is worth having a deal despite it being big on disruption and inconvenience, mainly because No Deal isn't an end state. If you are going to end up with a deal on the terms you have previously rejected anyway, you might as well bypass the extra No Deal grief.
I see people mentioning a surge in suicides a lot. Are people basing this of actual figures or on intuition? Because as far as I know the ONS is saying you cant draw any conclusions about suicides at the moment as inquests will almost certainly be delayed due to Cornoavirus. Presently the Q2 suicide rate is half what it was a year ago (but will be revised higher once inquests are concluded)
The fact that the hardline UK position seems to be driven by unelected bureaucrats is, to put it charitably, ironic. But it also shows a clear path to compromise and a deal: a Cabinet revolt led by Gove and Sunak. Have they got the guts to do it?
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
In about ten weeks, if Covid the Sequel continues to worsen as it is now, Brexit is going to seem a ridiculous act of dangerous and decadent pointlessness. The polls may swing wildly against it.
What would Boris do then?
It's already happened. It cannot be undone. We need to move on but the pressure to deliver a deal will be immense. Which is a good thing.
People aren't going to be regretting their motivation for voting Leave (stricter immigration rules) on the back of Covid-19
No, they're not. As we have already left there are limited possibilities.
We might negotiate a sensible deal with the EU which acknowledges our standards are their standards and equivalent with protections for both sides in the event that changes in the future. Still the most likely, in my opinion. We might have a more limited deal which will cause minor disruption and inconvenience that may get sorted out in subsequent discussions but which drag on a bit causing a moderate reduction in mutual trade. We might end up with pretty much no deal at all in which case there will be more disruption and no doubt considerable irritation with the result our trade with the EU will fall more significantly.
Clearly option 1 is the best for both parties and both parties have more incentives not to have any additional interference with trade given the problems of Covid but whatever will be will be. What is not on the table is some rejoining of the EU in the foreseeable. It's just not going to happen and I wish people would stop pretending that this is even a possibility.
Problem, absent a SM+CU type arrangement there isn't a minor disruption and inconvenience option available and I don't see SM+CU as a realistic option in the short and possibly longer term. It is worth having a deal despite it being big on disruption and inconvenience, mainly because No Deal isn't an end state. If you are going to end up with a deal on the terms you have previously rejected anyway, you might as well bypass the extra No Deal grief.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
Except that hardly any of the details you predicted came to pass. No million(s) of deaths in the UK, no billions of cases worldwide by May, no mass civil disorder, nor any of the rest.
Seems someone found election materials including actual ballots marked for Trump in trash dumpster outside election offices for Luzerne County in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania which is next door to Scranton, Joe Biden's birthplace.
Which is HIGHLY irregular to the say the least and a clear violation of PA election laws calling for retention of ballots and voting materials.
Note Luzerne Co went overwhelmingly for Trumpsky in 2016. Further note they had same or similar problem in this year's primary. Failing to correct such a serious problem and then repeating it is GROSS incompetence.
Politico focuses on the haste and sloppiness of the initial press release from the US District Attorney's office. Which is fair comment.
HOWEVER, thing that REALLY bothers me is the incompetence by the election administrators and possibly their superiors in this county.
Back in late 90s and early 00s we had similar but greater problems in King Co, WA which came to a head in the super-close 2004 governor's race. Which cast the harsh but cleansing light of publicity and investigation on the manifold defects of election systems in King and other WA counties. AND resulted in real reforms and much better, more accountable, efficient AND reliable process for conducting and ensuring free and fair elections.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
I should have added that I don't really work much in the daytime, so it is easier for me to get some fresh air than people who do.
I see people mentioning a surge in suicides a lot. Are people basing this of actual figures or on intuition? Because as far as I know the ONS is saying you cant draw any conclusions about suicides at the moment as inquests will almost certainly be delayed due to Cornoavirus. Presently the Q2 suicide rate is half what it was a year ago (but will be revised higher once inquests are concluded)
Interestingly, I read of one survey of the mental health of schoolchildren over lockdown which unexpectedly revealed a small improvement in their well-being. It seems they preferred being at home to being at school! Obviously, though, this is an average, and some are no doubt much worse off at home.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
"Reasonable worst case scenario"
Governments are very keen to point out that these aren't predictions. They are less keen to point out that, depending on the situation, Reasonable worst case scenarios may be the most likely of several outcomes. It may even be more likely to happen than not.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
Though if you follow Beechgrove she could try sunny Joppa. (apols)
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
In the early 2000s I went to the Tate modern when they had a fake sun thing going on, maybe they should try it again, if it is possible under the Westminster restrictions
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Plus basic poverty, poorer people in more crowded conditions, with maybe less awareness of rules, and blue collar jobs - retail, transport - that expose them to greater risk.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
Except that hardly any of the details you predicted came to pass. No million(s) of deaths in the UK, no billions of cases worldwide by May, no mass civil disorder, nor any of the rest.
But LadyG didn`t join PB.com until June...
Confession: I used to be on here as Martin Day.
Martin Gale would have been a good handle on this board.
Plus basic poverty, poorer people in more crowded conditions, with maybe less awareness of rules, and blue collar jobs - retail, transport - that expose them to greater risk.
Yes, but some of those apply in areas of the south which don't seem to be bad at the moment - for example, there are very few cases in Reading, Watford, Crawley, or Eastbourne. Although as @Big_G_NorthWales says, London is creeping up and is now on watch.
Deaths and illness among the rich (many who would be middle class here) are counted and attended to Deaths and illness among the middle class (many who would just be working class here) are somewhat counted and attended to Deaths and illness among the poor. Well, in the better run areas, someone will make sure that not too many end up in the street.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
More than half of Scotland's cases today are students.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
More than half of Scotland's cases today are students.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
More than half of Scotland's cases today are students.
Yes, maybe it's just that they went back to college earlier.
Whatever the reason, I think we have to assume that the same factors will apply in the south of England, especially in university towns such as Bristol and Oxford, quite soon.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
More than half of Scotland's cases today are students.
I am not in the least surprised by that but do you have a link? It would be interesting to see which Universities are most affected.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
More than half of Scotland's cases today are students.
Yes, maybe it's just that they went back to college earlier.
Whatever the reason, I think we have to assume that the same factors will apply in the south of England, especially in university towns such as Bristol and Oxford, quite soon.
And London.
London has 24 universities, and a large number of other colleges, specialist academies, drama schools, etc
That's tens of thousands of young people all arriving in the city at the same time, and all heading for fairly cramped halls and the like.
If England follows Scotland, this is going to be utterly calamitous.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
That's a really interesting idea, thanks.
You can, if you pay just a little bit, pick your wavelengths remarkably these days. Quite a lot of people are going for a setup where, using multiple dimmers (often remote) you can "mix" a light scheme to fit the mood.
Apparently, there is some evidence that *changing* the light frequencies helps as well. The poor man's version of that is to put different frequency bulbs in the overheads, standing lamps, and in kitchens, the counter lights & cooker hoods.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Isn't London on watch ?
Looking at the specific boroughs, it's the North East London / Essexy ones that are in trouble.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
More than half of Scotland's cases today are students.
I am not in the least surprised by that but do you have a link? It would be interesting to see which Universities are most affected.
Sorry, I may have transposed yesterdays figs onto today (172 In Glasgow alone).
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
it's easy to blame the weather (when you're on Holiday*)
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I went on and on about it. To me it was absolutely obvious that this was going to put the R rate through the roof. Presumably, somewhere, a strategic decision was made that the alternative of Universities teaching students stuck at home was even worse. That might be the right call in the medium term. The young have already borne an excessive share of the cost of dealing with this virus that they are practically immune to. The test will be whether this significant increase in cases results in an increase in hospital admissions so severe we can't cope. The preliminary indications are not great but it is still early days. We will have a better idea in 2-3 weeks.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
The price of student accommodation was extortionate even 20 years ago, when I went. If the students can't go to physical lectures and can't socialise, then what is the point of paying all that money when they could stay at their parents houses (presumably rent free)
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
That's a really interesting idea, thanks.
You can, if you pay just a little bit, pick your wavelengths remarkably these days. Quite a lot of people are going for a setup where, using multiple dimmers (often remote) you can "mix" a light scheme to fit the mood.
Apparently, there is some evidence that *changing* the light frequencies helps as well. The poor man's version of that is to put different frequency bulbs in the overheads, standing lamps, and in kitchens, the counter lights & cooker hoods.
My daughter has her own house and we are not even allowed to visit anymore (thanks to the restrictions in Scotland) but I will discuss this with her and get her to look into it.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
The price of student accommodation was extortionate even 20 years ago, when I went. If the students can't go to physical lectures and can't socialise, then what is the point of paying all that money when they could stay at their parents houses (presumably rent free)
Covid has the potential to completely obliterate much of UK higher education, as we know it. Unless we get a watertight vaccine (and even if we do there will be years of wariness) students will ask themselves, Why take on all that debt for a potentially horrible experience of online teaching and isolation in tiny rooms?
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I went on and on about it. To me it was absolutely obvious that this was going to put the R rate through the roof. Presumably, somewhere, a strategic decision was made that the alternative of Universities teaching students stuck at home was even worse. That might be the right call in the medium term. The young have already borne an excessive share of the cost of dealing with this virus that they are practically immune to. The test will be whether this significant increase in cases results in an increase in hospital admissions so severe we can't cope. The preliminary indications are not great but it is still early days. We will have a better idea in 2-3 weeks.
That's the heartbreaking thing. The problems were eminently predictable, and the increases in testing, while welcome, look like too little, too late.
If a government visibly, utterly fails, but has 3-4 years left on its mandate and a substantial majority in the Commons, what happens next?
I see people mentioning a surge in suicides a lot. Are people basing this of actual figures or on intuition? Because as far as I know the ONS is saying you cant draw any conclusions about suicides at the moment as inquests will almost certainly be delayed due to Cornoavirus. Presently the Q2 suicide rate is half what it was a year ago (but will be revised higher once inquests are concluded)
Yes, I agree; the assumption that suicides will rise may be wrong. In a time of crisis, people pull together and there is more cohesion and support. During "lockdown" the most vulnerable to suicide, young men, may actually be less prone to some of the factors that lead them to take their own lives, especially if they live at home. People are looking out for one another more. The old and vulnerable, who are most likely to suffer under lockdown, have very low rates of suicide in normal times. This may be utter tripe, but maybe not.
R rates from different data sources are increasing slightly, but all converging to a high degree, so positive tests (whether the rolling average change is measured over 4 or 7 days), ONS infection survey, hospitalisations are all coming out between 1.23 and 1.25.
That's a doubling rate of 12-13 days (not 7, but not good). Merkel's comments on the difference between an R of 1.1 and 1.2 being huge apply.
It's a back facing measure but I think the next turn of the screw is not far away unless the numbers improve in just a few days.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
That's a really interesting idea, thanks.
You can, if you pay just a little bit, pick your wavelengths remarkably these days. Quite a lot of people are going for a setup where, using multiple dimmers (often remote) you can "mix" a light scheme to fit the mood.
Apparently, there is some evidence that *changing* the light frequencies helps as well. The poor man's version of that is to put different frequency bulbs in the overheads, standing lamps, and in kitchens, the counter lights & cooker hoods.
My daughter has her own house and we are not even allowed to visit anymore (thanks to the restrictions in Scotland) but I will discuss this with her and get her to look into it.
Even at the most basic change - you can now get LED replacements for nearly any shape and size of bulb.
The last remaining issue is that for low power lights on transformers - like 12V ceiling lights in bathrooms or some dimmer systems, you can't just use LEDS. For that you often need to change the transformer/dimmer system as well - which is not a huge thing.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
The price of student accommodation was extortionate even 20 years ago, when I went. If the students can't go to physical lectures and can't socialise, then what is the point of paying all that money when they could stay at their parents houses (presumably rent free)
Which undoubtedly was the motivation behind the mess we are in. Universities were very keen to get their students back and didn't put a lot of emphasis on what this might mean in terms of the epidemic and student lives.
One of my hobby horses is that universities have to get a lot more efficient and above all cheaper in their delivery of undergraduate education. And not chase costly ranking positions.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
That's a really interesting idea, thanks.
Or depending there are other shades available - warm white, cool white etc.
The thing to talk about is probably "colour temperature".
Digging a little deeper, "smart lighting" with "tunable white" is now quite a thing. I know a few self-builders who have used various ideas about adjusting the type of white between daytime and the evening, for example.
Apple have such a feature in their Smarthome 'Homekit'.
The Uni of Washington model is now predicting 370,000 deaths in the USA by Jan 1. I can remember when people were hoping for around 60,000, quite late into the spring.
The predictions for Europe are fairly grim as well (90,000 in the UK), but they go off the scale for many countries - UK, France, Spain, Italy - if there is any notable easing of restrictions.
eg They predict France will see 400,000 dead by Jan 1, if lockdown is majorly lifted.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Isn't London on watch ?
Looking at the specific boroughs, it's the North East London / Essexy ones that are in trouble.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
Believe in Brexit , Believe in Global Britain ! The boss of Ineos Jim Ratcliffe the arch Brexiteer has buggered off to Monaco ! Just another of the long line of Brexit hypocrites !
Comments
In fact the effects of Covid will be hundreds of times more severe than any impact from Brexit, at least for this year and next.
Covid is going to knock off anything between 5-15% of GDP this year. Let's say 10% as a midpoint. Horrendous.
Does the LSE really believe Brexit will take away 20-30% of GDP? That's worse than a terrible, terrible war.
I do however agree that the combo of both is a nightmare.
So far it’s a large crowd watching some buffalo standing around and waiting for something to happen. Should suit PB cricket fans down to the ground.
A no-deal Brexit may still be more costly than COVID-19
"As Tim Shipman put it “In the midst of the worst recession in living memory, the downsides of red tape and potential tariffs seem to many in Johnson’s team like a thimble of spit in a tsunami.” There is an obvious flaw in advocating Brexit on the basis that it’s less costly than the worst pandemic the world has faced in a hundred years. But this aside, the claim COVID-19 is a bigger economic shock than Brexit deserves further interrogation. It places undue weight on the dramatic, but mostly temporary, impacts of COVID-19, compared to the larger, long-term costs of Brexit. In fact, when measured in terms of their impact on the present value of UK GDP, the Brexit shock is forecast to be two to three times greater than the impact of COVID-19."
Fact is, there hasn’t been a less reliable predictor of events on here than our north London friend.
This year? Eeesh.
Cheering myself up by listening to Roxy Music's Avalon album.
https://www.timesleader.com/news/803435/federal-probe-focuses-on-discarded-trump-ballots-in-luzerne-county
Politico.com story
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/doj-announcement-on-pennsylvania-ballot-investigation-baffles-election-experts-421541
Seems someone found election materials including actual ballots marked for Trump in trash dumpster outside election offices for Luzerne County in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania which is next door to Scranton, Joe Biden's birthplace.
Which is HIGHLY irregular to the say the least and a clear violation of PA election laws calling for retention of ballots and voting materials.
Note Luzerne Co went overwhelmingly for Trumpsky in 2016. Further note they had same or similar problem in this year's primary. Failing to correct such a serious problem and then repeating it is GROSS incompetence.
Politico focuses on the haste and sloppiness of the initial press release from the US District Attorney's office. Which is fair comment.
HOWEVER, thing that REALLY bothers me is the incompetence by the election administrators and possibly their superiors in this county.
Back in late 90s and early 00s we had similar but greater problems in King Co, WA which came to a head in the super-close 2004 governor's race. Which cast the harsh but cleansing light of publicity and investigation on the manifold defects of election systems in King and other WA counties. AND resulted in real reforms and much better, more accountable, efficient AND reliable process for conducting and ensuring free and fair elections.
Governments are very keen to point out that these aren't predictions. They are less keen to point out that, depending on the situation, Reasonable worst case scenarios may be the most likely of several outcomes. It may even be more likely to happen than not.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Austria, Hungary and Malta. And that's just Europe.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=3mCmKKwu&id=294383CEC801FA3B7BB476271149C694BAA305F3&thid=OIP.3mCmKKwufGk9twZztc9QfwHaC-&mediaurl=https://www.britishmolecatchers.co.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/mole-worm.jpg&exph=394&expw=980&q=moles+uk&simid=608050305735198719&ck=8FA8AB85EEBFDB3167E492B3F8751F79&selectedIndex=0&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0
https://twitter.com/jayvanbavel/status/1308941880521097220
...great thread.
https://twitter.com/jayvanbavel/status/1308954211498045440
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Personally have always found the psychology of psychology professors to be psychologically psuspect.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
This Is South America
Deaths and illness among the rich (many who would be middle class here) are counted and attended to
Deaths and illness among the middle class (many who would just be working class here) are somewhat counted and attended to
Deaths and illness among the poor. Well, in the better run areas, someone will make sure that not too many end up in the street.
Whatever the reason, I think we have to assume that the same factors will apply in the south of England, especially in university towns such as Bristol and Oxford, quite soon.
London has 24 universities, and a large number of other colleges, specialist academies, drama schools, etc
That's tens of thousands of young people all arriving in the city at the same time, and all heading for fairly cramped halls and the like.
If England follows Scotland, this is going to be utterly calamitous.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
Apparently, there is some evidence that *changing* the light frequencies helps as well. The poor man's version of that is to put different frequency bulbs in the overheads, standing lamps, and in kitchens, the counter lights & cooker hoods.
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
*Billie
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1309520902820900864?s=20
If a government visibly, utterly fails, but has 3-4 years left on its mandate and a substantial majority in the Commons, what happens next?
That's a doubling rate of 12-13 days (not 7, but not good). Merkel's comments on the difference between an R of 1.1 and 1.2 being huge apply.
It's a back facing measure but I think the next turn of the screw is not far away unless the numbers improve in just a few days.
The last remaining issue is that for low power lights on transformers - like 12V ceiling lights in bathrooms or some dimmer systems, you can't just use LEDS. For that you often need to change the transformer/dimmer system as well - which is not a huge thing.
One of my hobby horses is that universities have to get a lot more efficient and above all cheaper in their delivery of undergraduate education. And not chase costly ranking positions.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1309531631737352196?s=20
The thing to talk about is probably "colour temperature".
Digging a little deeper, "smart lighting" with "tunable white" is now quite a thing. I know a few self-builders who have used various ideas about adjusting the type of white between daytime and the evening, for example.
Apple have such a feature in their Smarthome 'Homekit'.
Here is a thread over on Buildhub in a related topic:
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/13902-changing-the-colour-temperature-of-led-lighting-in-the-evening/
I have started another about "Seasonal Affective Disorder" specifically.
https://forum.buildhub.org.uk/topic/16707-colour-temperature-and-seasonal-affective-disorder/
The predictions for Europe are fairly grim as well (90,000 in the UK), but they go off the scale for many countries - UK, France, Spain, Italy - if there is any notable easing of restrictions.
eg They predict France will see 400,000 dead by Jan 1, if lockdown is majorly lifted.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/france
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.