USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
That's a really interesting idea, thanks.
Or depending there are other shades available - warm white, cool white etc.
The thing to talk about is probably "colour temperature".
Digging a little deeper, "smart lighting" with "tunable white" is now quite a thing. I know a few self-builders who have used various ideas about adjusting the type of white between daytime and the evening, for example.
Apple have such a feature in their Smarthome 'Homekit'.
Among other things, they said they really enjoyed putting some coloured (seriously coloured) LED strings in concealed places - under the kitchen cupboards at the back, along skirting boards in a recess, under stair treads etc.
So when the mood takes them, they can light on bits of the house green, red or blue to mix in with the regular light.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
One thing that has largely got under the radar during the expansion of university sector and increased fees...halls at many universities are now incredibly expensive, £150 a week is totally normal.
Believe in Brexit , Believe in Global Britain ! The boss of Ineos Jim Ratcliffe the arch Brexiteer has buggered off to Monaco ! Just another of the long line of Brexit hypocrites !
Well, to be fair, Monaco is a very much a global place, accepting billionaires from all over the world.
Are we really in the equivalent to the "early March" period of Covid 1.0? Remember we are testing waaaaaay more, so noticing a lot more cases. And the cases are, so far, more often in the young, who fare better.
Arguably we are in the equivalent of early February, when deaths were minimal. Comparing those curves would be enlightening.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
I know its a sacred thing and all but ...time to charge local students?
Believe in Brexit , Believe in Global Britain ! The boss of Ineos Jim Ratcliffe the arch Brexiteer has buggered off to Monaco ! Just another of the long line of Brexit hypocrites !
Well, to be fair, Monaco is a very much a global place, accepting billionaires from all over the world.
I'm sure they're also accepting of people with merely hundreds of millions, they're not snobs.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
I know its a sacred thing and all but ...time to charge local students?
I don't think the SNP will have any choice, if they want to keep at least some Scottish universities solvent and functional. Sturgeon can hardly go to the UK Treasury and ask for more money, so she can maintain a model where Scotland charges English students, but not Scottish ones.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
Which is why the universities operating model is unsustainable. Covid is forcing the issue. It would be good if universities could sort themselves out without going bankrupt first.
First should be front line workers, second domestic careers, then people who work with co- morbidities maybe then over 65’s. We older people can Avoid most of the risk by deploying common sense which doesn’t actually locking yourself away.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
The pandemic has shown up how some people's sense of entitlement shows no bounds. We are reaping decades of self-indulgence - not just for young people but the nature of this disease and who and in what way it affects them does rather put the in the spotlight. In Spain we saw this in the summer in the clubs and bars.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
USA 4% of the World's population, 20% of the Covid deaths.
That's not fair, the US has got reliable transparent reporting in most states so the number can be taken at face value. The last time we had an update from Iran the leaked data suggested double or even triple the publicly disclosed deaths. We also don't know how bad it was in China, there's a lot of unregistered deaths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. A fairer comparison for the US would be to Europe where there is similarly transparent reporting of statistics.
TBH, I'm sceptical that anything other excess deaths is a sensible measure of the number of people dying of CV19.
It also captures secondary impacts from lockdowns and undiagnosed cancer and the like.
But also non-virus factors like fewer road deaths if people stay at home more
Then again falling off ladders while diy.
The big one is going to be suicide. A huge amount of untreated mental illness, completely inadequate review of the medication of those already on it, dangerous isolation for those at risk and a more than average risk of a major set back such as the loss of a job or end of a relationship. It's going to be a bad year for suicide.
People who get Seasonal Affected Disorder must be absolutely bricking it
My daughter suffers from that. Most years she will try to get somewhere sunny for a couple of weeks in the winter to cope. So much more difficult now.
I'd recommend early to bed and up with the birds. Wouldn't say I suffer with it, but when I lived alone and worked from home, the winters were certainly tougher than the summers. I used to try and get a long bike ride or run in while it was daylight
By mid December we are under 7 hours of daylight. Its a problem every year. She has a blue light that helps a bit but its hard.
Sunbeds used to help me before I got rich enough to travel. Also spas and saunas...... But they will probably be closed by Covid. Feck.
Yes, there are few options. She works in the photobiology lab at Ninewells Hospital. She may get some help there since their usual patients (people with potentially fatal skin cancers etc) are not about.
I'd take a look at changing some of your house internal lights to daylight wavelength LEDs.
That's a really interesting idea, thanks.
You can, if you pay just a little bit, pick your wavelengths remarkably these days. Quite a lot of people are going for a setup where, using multiple dimmers (often remote) you can "mix" a light scheme to fit the mood.
Apparently, there is some evidence that *changing* the light frequencies helps as well. The poor man's version of that is to put different frequency bulbs in the overheads, standing lamps, and in kitchens, the counter lights & cooker hoods.
My daughter has her own house and we are not even allowed to visit anymore (thanks to the restrictions in Scotland) but I will discuss this with her and get her to look into it.
A 10 000 lux SAD lamp is £30 on amazon. I used one for the first time last winter and think it kinda helped a bit.
And if we are doing folk medical advice, vitamin D can't do any harm and is virtually free. And allegedly covid protective.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
I know its a sacred thing and all but ...time to charge local students?
Scotland needs to rethink a little in many ways. Independence dreams have been popped a little bit, and big warm ideas undermined. I would like the rethinking to finish up as a diminishing desire to be independent, but I'm sure it won't. If Independence happens though then Scotland needs to be in a good place. Packed lunches, cleft sticks, coloured baubles - all for the journey. The destination may well be good, but it will take a while.
R rates from different data sources are increasing slightly, but all converging to a high degree, so positive tests (whether the rolling average change is measured over 4 or 7 days), ONS infection survey, hospitalisations are all coming out between 1.23 and 1.25.
That's a doubling rate of 12-13 days (not 7, but not good). Merkel's comments on the difference between an R of 1.1 and 1.2 being huge apply.
It's a back facing measure but I think the next turn of the screw is not far away unless the numbers improve in just a few days.
R is of course an average. But if society is disaggregated into a set of self-contained bubbles each with its own average R then the average of such averages will evolve linearly over time even though within each bubble the mini epidemic rises (initially) exponentially. You can see this if you consider the whole world, where cases are growing linearly, as an aggregation of individual countries, which have each had exponential phases before the standard epi-curve shape asserts itself. This is I think the reason why society should be split up into more-or-less self-contained units or bubbles.
The Uni of Washington model is now predicting 370,000 deaths in the USA by Jan 1. I can remember when people were hoping for around 60,000, quite late into the spring.
The predictions for Europe are fairly grim as well (90,000 in the UK), but they go off the scale for many countries - UK, France, Spain, Italy - if there is any notable easing of restrictions.
eg They predict France will see 400,000 dead by Jan 1, if lockdown is majorly lifted.
That won't happen, because people go into de facto lockdown (whatever the government says) whenever you see deaths spiking.
You saw this in a lot of US states. Lockdown, release, second wave, then de facto lockdown.
Arizona, for example has almost no official lockdown measures. Yet you wouldn't know it. In fact (given US tort laws), most businesses are even more cautious than in California.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
The summer vacation season across Europe had to be the single biggest mistake. After many European countries closing borders and / or stopping people leaving their local region, they just said off you go, go and mix with 1000s of other people from all over.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
My guess is that it's because Spain tried to save its tourist season, while Italy didn't really bother.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
You might get a more sympathetic reception to some views without seeking sympathy for apparent hounding which others might recall differently?
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
I know its a sacred thing and all but ...time to charge local students?
Scotland needs to rethink a little in many ways. Independence dreams have been popped a little bit, and big warm ideas undermined. I would like the rethinking to finish up as a diminishing desire to be independent, but I'm sure it won't. If Independence happens though then Scotland needs to be in a good place. Packed lunches, cleft sticks, coloured baubles - all for the journey. The destination may well be good, but it will take a while.
right or not as an aim im pretty convinced independence is inevitable now and too many Scots have taken recent events as the tipping point sign of its need. So if the dream of it has been popped they'll find waking up quite difficult.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
The pandemic has shown up how some people's sense of entitlement shows no bounds. We are reaping decades of self-indulgence - not just for young people but the nature of this disease and who and in what way it affects them does rather put the in the spotlight. In Spain we saw this in the summer in the clubs and bars.
I’m afraid FF 43 that would be great if true but people will ignore and socialize outside of their allowed grouping. Our current rules in our part of Spain are currently More relaxed than the more strident UK rules and at the moment seem to be working. Each weekend though brings weekenders from Murcia but their daily cycle is on a different timeframe to us immigrants so here’s hoping. The last thing we want is Benidorm boozers although it would be nice to see the family, that will have to wait.
The Uni of Washington model is now predicting 370,000 deaths in the USA by Jan 1. I can remember when people were hoping for around 60,000, quite late into the spring.
The predictions for Europe are fairly grim as well (90,000 in the UK), but they go off the scale for many countries - UK, France, Spain, Italy - if there is any notable easing of restrictions.
eg They predict France will see 400,000 dead by Jan 1, if lockdown is majorly lifted.
That won't happen, because people go into de facto lockdown (whatever the government says) whenever you see deaths spiking.
You saw this in a lot of US states. Lockdown, release, second wave, then de facto lockdown.
Arizona, for example has almost no official lockdown measures. Yet you wouldn't know it. In fact (given US tort laws), most businesses are even more cautious than in California.
Probably right. The constant screaming of ambulances (cf New York) is more effective than any government diktat, in chasing people into their homes.
But it does show the lurking potential, still, of this wretched disease. It also implies huge economic damage, as we all recoil from office work and daily society.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
You might get a more sympathetic reception to some views without seeking sympathy for apparent hounding which others might recall differently?
I'm unsure what you mean but I was not seeking sympathy for any thing. Indeed the more i read whay you wrote the less I can understand your point.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
I know its a sacred thing and all but ...time to charge local students?
Scotland needs to rethink a little in many ways. Independence dreams have been popped a little bit, and big warm ideas undermined. I would like the rethinking to finish up as a diminishing desire to be independent, but I'm sure it won't. If Independence happens though then Scotland needs to be in a good place. Packed lunches, cleft sticks, coloured baubles - all for the journey. The destination may well be good, but it will take a while.
right or not as an aim im pretty convinced independence is inevitable now and too many Scots have taken recent events as the tipping point sign of its need. So if the dream of it has been popped they'll find waking up quite difficult.
The dream of indy won't die, and might one day be realised; but the bitter fiscal reality of Covid will make it impracticable, for quite a while.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
My guess is that it's because Spain tried to save its tourist season, while Italy didn't really bother.
Partly but a lot (most) community spread was as an indirect result of the holiday season with extended families and holiday friends and neighbors getting together With lots of hugging and kissing.
One thing that has largely got under the radar during the expansion of university sector and increased fees...halls at many universities are now incredibly expensive, £150 a week is totally normal.
The game that is being played - at least in London - is to build halls of residence, which get easy planning permission. Use the students to gentrify the area. Kick them out, smash down the cardboard partitions.... and sell the flats.
Just build some more student digs down the road into the "vibrant" bit......
Best bit is that with the rental rates on the hall of residence, the whole thing is profitable - including the development costs! Literally sit there and watch the money pile in.
The Scottish government, and more so universities in my view, have screwed up the return to universities with a rampant increase in Covid cases. They didn't do a proper risk assessment and they should have set expectations to returning students that normal student life is impossible right now.
Nevertheless this outrage that students aren't allowed to socialise baffles me. We're in a pandemic. No-one else is socialising.
I've found it strange how little attention students going to university has received. It seems to me that a very big part of the attraction of university is the socialising side of things. It's hardly a surprise that this is turning into a problem.
I agree. I think students have been misled by vested interests. They are now in a worse position than if they hadn't gone back to physical presence in the first place. They have every right to be aggrieved. The idea that they have the right to socialise in a pandemic is the bit I struggle with.
Universities, most of which are in financial difficulty already as a result of Covid and many of which potentially face ruin, need the students to turn up because otherwise they can't charge them thousands of pounds a head for their accommodation. The fact that the poor sods now find themselves effectively in prison is entirely incidental to their role as badly needed revenue generators for their institutions (especially in Scotland where all the local students can't be tapped for fees.)
If dealing with the virus was a more important consideration than money then they'd only have accepted back medical students and those in subjects like chemistry with a significant hands-on practical element, and told the rest of them to stay at home and endure dismal remote learning. It's very much easier for people to socially distance when you decrease the density of the student body by a half or two-thirds, but it's also very much easier for your university to go bankrupt.
As you note, Scottish unis in particular - because of their TOTAL dependence on English and foreign fee-paying students - are absolutely screwed. Most of them could go under.
I know its a sacred thing and all but ...time to charge local students?
Scotland needs to rethink a little in many ways. Independence dreams have been popped a little bit, and big warm ideas undermined. I would like the rethinking to finish up as a diminishing desire to be independent, but I'm sure it won't. If Independence happens though then Scotland needs to be in a good place. Packed lunches, cleft sticks, coloured baubles - all for the journey. The destination may well be good, but it will take a while.
right or not as an aim im pretty convinced independence is inevitable now and too many Scots have taken recent events as the tipping point sign of its need. So if the dream of it has been popped they'll find waking up quite difficult.
Yes, Independence seems inevitable. Back in 2014 it was "loony-tunes economics", and that was fair. Now the economics are far, far worse. I think we should help if that's where they want to be.
Probably better for the zinginess of your Conservative, Post Brexit Britain, gym enthusiast interested in cryptocurrencies zinger to get the right country tho'..
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
I am sitting with a meat and cheese platter in a small square in Bergamo, now the rain has cleared. Everyone but everyone takes precautions here, many going beyond the rules. And despite a quarter of the city having had it and presumably immune. The Italian crisis remains a huge shock affecting the whole country and surely part of why they are so far doing better than many. Plus, not so much party tourism as Spain, not as many care homes as Spain (granny is looked after at home and indeed probably owns it) . Their test and trace is also pretty good as reported on ITV news last week. And they don't have such an ethnic population as France or Spain (and the Africans sleeping in the parks are probably off radar)
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
The summer vacation season across Europe had to be the single biggest mistake. After many European countries closing borders and / or stopping people leaving their local region, they just said off you go, go and mix with 1000s of other people from all over.
If they had shut down travel between communities it would have been a lot better, Catalonia actually skipped the last phase of the shut down and went straight for a free for all and paid the price.
One thing that has largely got under the radar during the expansion of university sector and increased fees...halls at many universities are now incredibly expensive, £150 a week is totally normal.
The game that is being played - at least in London - is to build halls of residence, which get easy planning permission. Use the students to gentrify the area. Kick them out, smash down the cardboard partitions.... and sell the flats.
Just build some more student digs down the road into the "vibrant" bit......
Best bit is that with the rental rates on the hall of residence, the whole thing is profitable - including the development costs! Literally sit there and watch the money pile in.
It's a bit like the pubs we were discussing earlier. Someone is always making oodles of cash, and it's rarely who you think.
Unfair - they and those with conditions are much the most at risk of death. It's not complicated.
I laid out what I thought the priority list should be to explain why I don’t think 65+ should be at the front of the queue. I reckon most reasonable people if asked that opinion poll in a different way would come up with more nuanced response.
One thing that has largely got under the radar during the expansion of university sector and increased fees...halls at many universities are now incredibly expensive, £150 a week is totally normal.
The game that is being played - at least in London - is to build halls of residence, which get easy planning permission. Use the students to gentrify the area. Kick them out, smash down the cardboard partitions.... and sell the flats.
Just build some more student digs down the road into the "vibrant" bit......
Best bit is that with the rental rates on the hall of residence, the whole thing is profitable - including the development costs! Literally sit there and watch the money pile in.
It's a bit like the pubs we were discussing earlier. Someone is always making oodles of cash, and it's rarely who you think.
Not sure about that. It's not hard to work out who's taking in the big piles of cash. The only question then, is are they passing it on, up a chain?
With student accommodation, the prices have gone up. Far faster than inflation or the cost of the increase in quality. Or even the house price inflation for the areas... And student farming* has long been a popular, reliable source of income. Does the same lady still own most of St Andrews (the town)?
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
I think the mistake made here was to try to have a proper tourist July and August - the brakes came off too quickly and people convinced themselves all would be well. Those of us who hinted otherwise got shouted down as killjoys.
I am sitting with a meat and cheese platter in a small square in Bergamo, now the rain has cleared. Everyone but everyone takes precautions here, many going beyond the rules. And despite a quarter of the city having had it and presumably immune. The Italian crisis remains a huge shock affecting the whole country and surely part of why they are so far doing better than many. Plus, not so much party tourism as Spain, not as many care homes as Spain (granny is looked after at home and indeed probably owns it) . Their test and trace is also pretty good as reported on ITV news last week. And they don't have such an ethnic population as France or Spain (and the Africans sleeping in the parks are probably off radar)
And an additional factor - paradoxically - might be the comparative scarcity of younger people, in terms of seeding the second wave. The Italian birth rate has been one of the lowest in the world for some time, and youth unemployment is such that many 20-somethings are abroad.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
85% will and 15% won't. Many of the 85% will comply to make sure they avoid the 15%.
One good thing about the 90%+ mask-wearing in shops, buses etc is that it makes it so easy to spot the numpties and give them a wide berth.
Or their names might be Jonathan Sumption, Peter Hitchens, Anders Tegnell, Prof John Ioaniddis, Emeritus Prof Beda Stadler, Prof Michael Levitt, Dr Malcolm Kendrick, Dr Ivor Cummins et al.
The only positive outcome of this has been that
1 distancing (but 1 m is the recommended figure) 2 some forms of better hygiene
have been found to be useful in reducing the spread of all viruses incl flu (but not masks so far).
Flu viruses are trickier to deal with than coronaviruses. In a repeat of 2017-18, when the flu vaccine failed and the NHS was badly overloaded, it would be sensible to use 1&2 to keep cases within NHS capacity.
Other than that, I'm afraid Whitty and Vallance can go take a running jump and the PM can stick his mask where the sun doesn't shine. Give me my life back and stop ruining the economy.
That's fine. You stick to your theory and I'll keep steering well clear of the non-mask wearers in the shops and on public transport.
You won't get the economy back on track if 85% of the population doesn't want to mingle with the those that hold our views.
Looks to me that in the game of Whack-A-Mole, the moles are winning hands-down.
Though, to be fair to HMG, it's not just British moles.
Covid 2.0 is rising fast, or out of control, in Spain, France, Holland, Czechia, Belgium, Cyprus and Malta. And that's just Europe.
Yes. We're by no means the worst at the moment.
What is striking is how much the hotspots are tilted towards the north of England and Scotland. Perhaps it's just the weather difference driving people to congregate indoors more, in poorly-ventilated buildings. If so, presumably the south of England will follow as the weather gets colder here.
Spain had its second wave during August and beyon. It continues to worsen but I don't think you can blame the weather.
Why is it so bad in Spain, compared to Italy?
I can't believe nightclubs are the sole explanation.
My guess is that it's because Spain tried to save its tourist season, while Italy didn't really bother.
The various hotels I have been at did OK for the later part of the summer; like most countries the Italians had more holidaying at home this year, and the Germans came in large numbers as soon as they were able, along with smaller numbers of Dutch, Austrians and Swiss. A lot fewer Brits than usual (tho still some) and, of course, no Americans, which is where Italy has lost the big money.
I think you might have to wait another week or so. The inadequacy of Sunak's offering wasn't properly appreciated in the 24 hours following his announcement, although the penny seems to be dropping gradually.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
85% will and 15% won't. Many of the 85% will comply to make sure they avoid the 15%.
One good thing about the 90%+ mask-wearing in shops, buses etc is that it makes it so easy to spot the numpties and give them a wide berth.
Or their names might be Jonathan Sumption, Peter Hitchens, Anders Tegnell, Prof John Ioaniddis, Emeritus Prof Beda Stadler, Prof Michael Levitt, Dr Malcolm Kendrick, Dr Ivor Cummins et al.
The only positive outcome of this has been that
1 distancing (but 1 m is the recommended figure) 2 some forms of better hygiene
have been found to be useful in reducing the spread of all viruses incl flu (but not masks so far).
Flu viruses are trickier to deal with than coronaviruses. In a repeat of 2017-18, when the flu vaccine failed and the NHS was badly overloaded, it would be sensible to use 1&2 to keep cases within NHS capacity.
Other than that, I'm afraid Whitty and Vallance can go take a running jump and the PM can stick his mask where the sun doesn't shine. Give me my life back and stop ruining the economy.
That's fine. You stick to your theory and I'll keep steering well clear of the non-mask wearers in the shops and on public transport.
You won't get the economy back on track if 85% of the population doesn't want to mingle with the those that hold our views.
Another idiot sent out to wind everybody up with their irrelevant views, they clearly don’t give a stuff about anybody else.
Mmm. During a big outbreak. Is "booking flights home" optimal? This was all so predictable.
An interesting point for those of you who are parentys of students - the Graun pointed out today something I had not known. If it is right, Scottish students, or rather students in Scotland, can terminate rental contracts on account of covid. But not in rUK.
Edit: not sure if this applues only to uni halls of residence.
Clinton won Maine by 3 last time and Biden is now up by 11 (a little less than some other polls but still a 4% swing). The crucial second Congressional District which Trump won by 10 in 2016 is now showing Biden up by 3 so a 6.5% swing to Biden. I'm not quite ready to move Maine CD2 to the Biden camp but the state and CD1 are safe.
In the Senate race, Collins trails Gideon 45-41 so this will go down to the wire. The poll is of 847 Likely voters with a 3.4% Margin of Error.
A USA Today/Suffolk poll in Minnesota puts Biden ahead 47-40 with 6% Undecided.
No information on sampling or methodology of any value regrettably but I'm keeping Minnesota in the Biden column.
California and Maryland are states which we can certainly put in the Biden column. A Berkeley/IGS poll in California gives Biden a massive 39-point lead.
So a range of states and all telling similar stories - swings from 2016 of between 3-6% to Biden so that would "suggest" a national poll advantage of 8-14 points but that isn't what all the national polls are showing especially in the more marginal states so trim that back to say a 6-10 point Biden lead and that seems to fit where many pollsters are (not all of course and the experience of 2016 counsels extreme caution).
The Uni of Washington model is now predicting 370,000 deaths in the USA by Jan 1. I can remember when people were hoping for around 60,000, quite late into the spring.
The predictions for Europe are fairly grim as well (90,000 in the UK), but they go off the scale for many countries - UK, France, Spain, Italy - if there is any notable easing of restrictions.
eg They predict France will see 400,000 dead by Jan 1, if lockdown is majorly lifted.
That won't happen, because people go into de facto lockdown (whatever the government says) whenever you see deaths spiking.
You saw this in a lot of US states. Lockdown, release, second wave, then de facto lockdown.
Arizona, for example has almost no official lockdown measures. Yet you wouldn't know it. In fact (given US tort laws), most businesses are even more cautious than in California.
The Washington model predicted 200,000 deaths by October 1st back in June.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
Or just lockdown now.
It wants to, but it needs a further period of rising cases before doing an April so that this course of action can be blamed on the public. We've not got long to wait, then we'll all be imprisoned for six months.
This country is finished. Might as well give up now.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
Or just lockdown now.
It wants to, but it needs a further period of rising cases before doing an April so that this course of action can be blamed on the public. We've not got long to wait, then we'll all be imprisoned for six months.
This country is finished. Might as well give up now.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
They will not go into second national lockdown in Spain, there is no need and a killer to the economy, they will continue to use localized lockdowns where necessary. The only possible restriction could be stopping movement between different communities which would be welcome.
Panic buying is surely a self fulfilling prophecy, it happens because we think it is happening.
The panic buying cycle: we laugh at the panic buyers. Then we criticise them. And finally we're obliged to join in, because if we act with restraint then we end up living off sauerkraut and revolting vegan ready meals and wiping our arses with newspaper, because the unrestrained people have stripped the shelves of everything we might actually want to buy.
I am not sure western society, as we know it, is going to survive a winter of lockdown
People wont do it
I tend to agree. Which means western governments will either have to crack down in a way we have never seen in liberal societies for many decades, OR the rule of law is just abandoned. Both are acutely dangerous.
Ideally want we want is a long cold and very snowy winter.
Covid panic buying, Brexit no deal and a Beast from the East confluence of events would make supermarket shopping....interesting.
The panic buying has already started. Supermarkets are pre-emptively rationing the main targets this time, but that won't help if enough people get scared again.
The pasta shelves in the local Tesco were two-thirds empty when I was last in there earlier in the week. Husband went today and reports that the locusts have now completely stripped the bog roll aisle.
When total lockdown arrives soon - and make no mistake, it's coming - there'll be pandaemonium again. Only this time it will involve long queues outside shops in dreadful, cold weather with continuous sheet rain, and a lot of angry, anxious, wet through customers attacking staff and each other as patience is exhausted and desperation takes over.
Oh, and @Cyclefree is right about hospitality, which is going to be almost completely destroyed (along with leisure and the arts) by the coming Winter and the Government's total desperation to lock us all up. Few appreciate just how bad this is all going to get, because only a handful of the most elderly people remember living through the Great Depression. The scale of poverty, deprivation and suffering by next Spring is going to be enormous.
Stop being so cheerful.
I am a pessimist, which makes me a realist - especially under present circumstances. One would be wise to assume that the reasonable worst case scenario is what will happen. This means economic collapse and no rescue by vaccine. At least that way, unless there's a nuclear holocaust then any surprises are liable to be on the upside.
As you know, that's been my personal Rule of Covid-19 from the get-go: imagine your reasonable worse case scenario, because that is what will happen.
So far it has been pretty reliable, if not infallible.
What I cannot predict is how western societies will react to this upcoming emergency. There are so many variables. Some countries may just hunker down and grit their teeth and endure. Others might explode into violence.
It's very likely going to be harder for us than most. We're already among those suffering the most from Covid, but the LSE recently estimated that Brexit will cause an overall reduction in GDP between 2 (deal) and 3 (no deal) times that of Covid. The combination of the two, in the middle of winter, could well be crippling.
I'm quite pessimistic at the moment, but these stats are absurdly gloomy.
Covid is going to knock off anything between 5-15% of GDP this year. Let's say 10% as a midpoint. Horrendous.
Does the LSE really believe Brexit will take away 20-30% of GDP? That's worse than a terrible, terrible war.
I do however agree that the combo of both is a nightmare.
Covid will (hopefully, cross-fingers etc etc) be a one year thing. With the wind at our backs we’ll have a vaccine in the spring and after that Covid-19 will be nothing more than the memory of a bad year. Brexit on the other hand is an on-going cost to the UK economy that will tax us year in year out for the next decade at least. A 20% drop in one year is vastly outweighed by a 4-5% cost that compounds for a decade.
Perhaps the Brexit boosters are right & there are sunlit uplands out there ripe for the plucking that will result in GDP growth that exceeds the losses. I certainly hope so, but with my reality-filtered glasses on it doesn’t look like it to me. It looks like Brexit is the self-inflicted wound that will cost us a generation of GDP growth relative to our peers.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
The only time this government is creative is when it needs a really stupid lie to conceal its latest act of naked criminality.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
Or just lockdown now.
No, there has to be another way. Lockdown will finish off the economy and put us on a long recovery road.
I cite this from news of Andrew Neil's new venture with GB News:
"GB News is aimed at the vast number of British people who feel underserved and unheard by their media"
As the Brexiteers have the Express, Telegraph and the Sun and the Conservatives have the Mail, Sky News while Labour has the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent and the BBC (apparently), I can only assume GB News will speak for the Liberal Democrats.
I look forward to the Daisy Cooper Show and An Evening with Ed (Davey). If that isn't a ratings winner, I don't know what is.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
Or just lockdown now.
It wants to, but it needs a further period of rising cases before doing an April so that this course of action can be blamed on the public. We've not got long to wait, then we'll all be imprisoned for six months.
This country is finished. Might as well give up now.
It's all right - we've been finished before.
We've been in terrible difficulties before. The difference this time is that our leaders actively seek to destroy us.
The Prime Minister and his advisers are totally fixated on the virus, to the exclusion of everything else. The Chancellor is trying to help, but all of his schemes will transpire to have been worse than useless when we end up imprisoned in our homes for so long that almost all economic activity that requires people to go out (apart from essential shopping) is obliterated.
At the end of all this we're going to save about 0.2% of the population from premature death at the cost of creating a smoking ruin that's no longer worth living in for anybody. Oh, and in the long run being blasted back into the Middle Ages will kill vastly more people than the virus. Not that Johnson cares about any of that.
Spain just added 25k backdated over the last 7 days. I'm seriously worried that Spain and France will head into a second lockdown in the next couple of weeks and we'll follow 4-6 weeks after that.
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
They will not go into second national lockdown in Spain, there is no need and a killer to the economy, they will continue to use localized lockdowns where necessary. The only possible restriction could be stopping movement between different communities which would be welcome.
That's like Boris saying no national lockdown and just having the whole population under local lockdown measures.
Comments
Among other things, they said they really enjoyed putting some coloured (seriously coloured) LED strings in concealed places - under the kitchen cupboards at the back, along skirting boards in a recess, under stair treads etc.
So when the mood takes them, they can light on bits of the house green, red or blue to mix in with the regular light.
Not my thing - but each to their own....
Arguably we are in the equivalent of early February, when deaths were minimal. Comparing those curves would be enlightening.
Married Argentinian MP resigns after kissing his mistress's breasts during an online parliamentary session because he wanted to see her new implants
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8771979/Argentinian-MP-resigns-kissing-mistresss-breasts-online-parliamentary-session.html
Allegedly.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1309536834171568129
And if we are doing folk medical advice, vitamin D can't do any harm and is virtually free. And allegedly covid protective.
You saw this in a lot of US states. Lockdown, release, second wave, then de facto lockdown.
Arizona, for example has almost no official lockdown measures. Yet you wouldn't know it. In fact (given US tort laws), most businesses are even more cautious than in California.
But it does show the lurking potential, still, of this wretched disease. It also implies huge economic damage, as we all recoil from office work and daily society.
https://twitter.com/ArchRose90/status/1309477543414837249?s=20
https://www.mystudenthalls.com/student-accommodation/glasgow/bridge-house/
Just build some more student digs down the road into the "vibrant" bit......
Best bit is that with the rental rates on the hall of residence, the whole thing is profitable - including the development costs! Literally sit there and watch the money pile in.
https://twitter.com/RubyJLL/status/1309523489116823553?s=20
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1309527177361321986?s=20
https://twitter.com/JamesLYucel/status/1309245150816882688?s=20
During a big outbreak.
Is "booking flights home" optimal?
This was all so predictable.
With student accommodation, the prices have gone up. Far faster than inflation or the cost of the increase in quality. Or even the house price inflation for the areas... And student farming* has long been a popular, reliable source of income. Does the same lady still own most of St Andrews (the town)?
*old joke
How to spread the virus to mums and dads...
Neil going to a right-wing station so he can finally share his climate denial views
Seems a long time ago now.
You won't get the economy back on track if 85% of the population doesn't want to mingle with the those that hold our views.
He has recently been doing a lot of hosting for Spectator YouTube channel as they have started up regulsr shows.
It's just one own goal after another.
Edit: not sure if this applues only to uni halls of residence.
Why hire that ageing bloke who's been on the BBC for donkeys years as Chairman, that's how.
So Martin Day is back.....
Meanwhile, another busy day of US polling and time for a look at some of the numbers and the details.
The only national poll is from Emerson and has Biden up 48-44 which is actually a doubling of his lead from the previous poll.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/september-2020-biden-holds-his-lead-voters-split-on-supreme-court-nominee-timetable
The 4% Undecided break 54-46 for Trump but that doesn't make a huge difference. Margin of Error on a sample of 1000 voters is 3%
Colby College, based in Waterville in Maine, has polled the state.
http://www.colby.edu/government/2020-polling/ (the crosstabs for the third poll are available as a spreadsheet and make interesting viewing).
Clinton won Maine by 3 last time and Biden is now up by 11 (a little less than some other polls but still a 4% swing). The crucial second Congressional District which Trump won by 10 in 2016 is now showing Biden up by 3 so a 6.5% swing to Biden. I'm not quite ready to move Maine CD2 to the Biden camp but the state and CD1 are safe.
In the Senate race, Collins trails Gideon 45-41 so this will go down to the wire. The poll is of 847 Likely voters with a 3.4% Margin of Error.
A USA Today/Suffolk poll in Minnesota puts Biden ahead 47-40 with 6% Undecided.
https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2020/9_25_2020_marginals_pdftxt.pdf?la=en&hash=EA09FFF4A22FBF2A04A6A5776C86103A990C9C6A
No information on sampling or methodology of any value regrettably but I'm keeping Minnesota in the Biden column.
California and Maryland are states which we can certainly put in the Biden column. A Berkeley/IGS poll in California gives Biden a massive 39-point lead.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fq445h6
It's a very large poll of nearly 6000 Likely voters with a margin of error of 2%. It's a swing of 4.5% to Biden from the Clinton win in 2016.
As for Maryland, Clinton won it 60-34 last time and Biden leads 62-30 so just a 3% swing to Biden.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/Opinionworks_MD_Poll_Sept_2020.pdf
So a range of states and all telling similar stories - swings from 2016 of between 3-6% to Biden so that would "suggest" a national poll advantage of 8-14 points but that isn't what all the national polls are showing especially in the more marginal states so trim that back to say a 6-10 point Biden lead and that seems to fit where many pollsters are (not all of course and the experience of 2016 counsels extreme caution).
So it is doing pretty well in America.
We're all in this together
The government seriously needs to be creative and come up with a new strategy.
This country is finished. Might as well give up now.
I'll get my coat....
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/25/sir-jim-ratcliffe-uks-richest-person-moves-to-tax-free-monaco-brexit-ineos-domicile
Perhaps the Brexit boosters are right & there are sunlit uplands out there ripe for the plucking that will result in GDP growth that exceeds the losses. I certainly hope so, but with my reality-filtered glasses on it doesn’t look like it to me. It looks like Brexit is the self-inflicted wound that will cost us a generation of GDP growth relative to our peers.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/17/brexiter-jim-ratcliffe-uk-richest-man-plans-save-4bn-pounds-tax-monaco-move
"GB News is aimed at the vast number of British people who feel underserved and unheard by their media"
As the Brexiteers have the Express, Telegraph and the Sun and the Conservatives have the Mail, Sky News while Labour has the Guardian, the Mirror, the Independent and the BBC (apparently), I can only assume GB News will speak for the Liberal Democrats.
I look forward to the Daisy Cooper Show and An Evening with Ed (Davey). If that isn't a ratings winner, I don't know what is.
I'll grab me bulletins...
The Prime Minister and his advisers are totally fixated on the virus, to the exclusion of everything else. The Chancellor is trying to help, but all of his schemes will transpire to have been worse than useless when we end up imprisoned in our homes for so long that almost all economic activity that requires people to go out (apart from essential shopping) is obliterated.
At the end of all this we're going to save about 0.2% of the population from premature death at the cost of creating a smoking ruin that's no longer worth living in for anybody. Oh, and in the long run being blasted back into the Middle Ages will kill vastly more people than the virus. Not that Johnson cares about any of that.
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1309516925081464845?s=19