I think it's safe to say that Johnson has now lost the Telegraph. Here's just one example of what their writers turn out at the moment. This one on the idea of keeping students at university, locked up in their halls during Xmas:
"Who the hell even makes up this sort of crackpot policy? What sort of emotional zombie believes that taking a wrecking ball to our families will win over Britain’s hearts and minds? Let me take a guess – “super talented weirdos” with “genuine cognitive diversity”. You remember them; Dominic ‘SpecSavers’ Cummings sought to bring fresh blood into the civil service by putting a shout out to “true wild cards..."
Key question- how many of his current BFFs will be prepared to admit to themselves that they've been had, and how many will persuade themselves that whatever the EU puts in front of BoJo to sign is what they've wanted all along?
Daily Mail BREAKING: Invasion of the long-legged lovers from your lawn: Homeowners are warned to brace for onslaught of more than 200 billion daddy long legs
The second clause (edit didn't notice the colon) there is a slight let down from the first.
Not only would the bill prevent counting of postal votes arriving later, but also bans counting votes that arrive earlier.
It is called the Help America Vote Act!
(Surely it wouldn't pass the House of Representatives though?)
No, of course not. But it seems a fairly clear indication of the way the party is thinking. Trump is far from the only Republican wanting to put a very large thumb on the scale.
If anyone is seriously interested in electoral reform, it needs to start with serious plans and funding, early in any administration. And it will have to be carried through at the state level.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
This needs to be heard more widely. The indirect costs of Johnson's Lockdown policy on health and economics are mounting steeply.
"some mischievous Conservatives have even taken to nicknaming the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, "Witless and Unbalanced". "
Telegraph.
Oh my aching sides. (I reserve the right to perpetrate equally dismal witticisms.)
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
Our business took a hit from the initial lockdown but, like a lot of businesses, could afford to take a hit without any long term consequences of note. Another 6 months with no confidence about what will be at the end puts us in a very different position. I do not think we can sustain our current staffing levels for that long. I fear that and your example will be pretty typical. The second wave of the shutdown is going to do a lot more damage than the first.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
I’ve no doubt Hancock is ‘working 24 hours a day’ on this, as on everything else.
Can we assume that every night club in the country is about to go bust?
Not just nightclubs. Pretty much all the theatre and live music sector too. It is going to be a bleak place at the end of all this for a couple of years.
The solution is trivial. All nightclubs and theatres have to do is organise a little grouse shoot on the side and a limo service and all will be well and totally legal.
He's looking for people who forecast there is lithium for car batteries on Mars and can knock up a plan to send a team of Durham ex-coal miners up there in a world beating first.
Can we assume that every night club in the country is about to go bust?
I said there needed to be a special class of bankruptcy for nightclubs ages back
A fire is the special measure of choice in the sector. As if our insurers did not have enough to worry about already having (mis)sold business interruption insurance for years. My heart bleeds.
"some mischievous Conservatives have even taken to nicknaming the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, "Witless and Unbalanced". "
Telegraph.
Oh my aching sides. (I reserve the right to perpetrate equally dismal witticisms.)
I wondered when the Tories would turn on Vallance and Whitty. They can’t have much time left now before Dido Harding gets both of their jobs.
Can we assume that every night club in the country is about to go bust?
I said there needed to be a special class of bankruptcy for nightclubs ages back
Sadly, we will have very few pubs or night life to return to if a vaccine does finally save us from this endless in/out lockdown policy.
They'll be back, particularly if a vaccine sufficiently boosts younger people's immune system to rule out long covid. But I don't think we're looking at 2021 for their return; I'd tentatively put 2022 as the start of the roaring twenties.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
Can we assume that every night club in the country is about to go bust?
I said there needed to be a special class of bankruptcy for nightclubs ages back
A fire is the special measure of choice in the sector. As if our insurers did not have enough to worry about already having (mis)sold business interruption insurance for years. My heart bleeds.
Courts have ruled against the disgraceful weaseling out of claims related to Covid for that haven't they ? Something like Chapter 11 for the nightclubs in my opinion. If you're a nightclub creditor right now - well you'll need to just write off the losses and that includes HMRC.
Borrowing figures look horrific, but well under the OBR estimate and I'm pretty sure the figure will get lower too as tax receipts are revised upwards.
£6bn spent on furlough and £5bn on the self employed scheme, we can see now why the chancellor has made the next part of the scheme much less generous. Even with the same number of people utilising it the cost will go down by around 70% so we're looking at between £3-4bn per month and falling rapidly as people are brought back or made redundant. This is also going to be an interesting experiment for unemployment, lots of people have said JSA should look very much like this so there will be a lot of education for the government.
"some mischievous Conservatives have even taken to nicknaming the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, "Witless and Unbalanced". "
Telegraph.
Oh my aching sides. (I reserve the right to perpetrate equally dismal witticisms.)
I wondered when the Tories would turn on Vallance and Whitty. They can’t have much time left now before Dido Harding gets both of their jobs.
When does Ms Harding become Cummings V2.0? The older style of Cummings will no longer be supported and should not be used.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
It depends what you're referring to. The government's attempts to sideline parliament and overrule domestic and international law are indeed anathema to the liberals, but I think most understand that the anti-Covid stuff is not authoritarianism but necessity.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
I’ve no doubt Hancock is ‘working 24 hours a day’ on this, as on everything else.
I suspect that is indeed true, and Boris out campaigning 24/7. This really is a Government of grafters.
That was one of the very strong reasons for relaxing the pub closing times in the 00's. Instead of chucking all the drinkers out onto city centerstreets at 11.30, the closing times are staggered significantly reducing the level of public disorder.
"some mischievous Conservatives have even taken to nicknaming the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, "Witless and Unbalanced". "
Telegraph.
Oh my aching sides. (I reserve the right to perpetrate equally dismal witticisms.)
I wondered when the Tories would turn on Vallance and Whitty. They can’t have much time left now before Dido Harding gets both of their jobs.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
This needs to be heard more widely. The indirect costs of Johnson's Lockdown policy on health and economics are mounting steeply.
What a mess.
It isn't really the fault of the government's lockdown policy. It is the inevitable result of having a healthcare system that runs at 90% of bed capacity even in the best of times. We can switch capacity to pandemic work, but at the cost of regular work. We cannot pack waiting areas and operating lists like sardines either. There needs to be extra cleaning, PPE and social distancing.
Unfortunately my predictions in my header (17 May) are coming true, perhaps I was even too cautious with them.
There’s going to have to be a deal, isn’t there? Whether the Tories like its contents or not. What has been obvious to any thinking person is finally dawning on the government; insofar as we had any cards, they have been played, but not won any tricks.
The irony is that some form of further transitional extension - which the government has done its best to deny itself - would be better than a bad ongoing deal.
Treat a few select bits of the North West like Kent. Sorted.... ?
"we can implement what we like but without help from the UK and the EU to simplify the processes involved we will not be able to deliver the level of frictionless trade we have today,"
Well... surely no one could have seen that coming?
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Good question. I think that they face two or three emerging problems: As politics gets more presidential in tone people are voting for a leader/PM, and in that particular race the LDs cannot figure.
A vote for LD was at times a vote for the favoured one of three parties each of which was at least modestly competent to run a centrist government. It was therefore an affordable luxury to vote LD - it added to the mix of what ever government you got as in 2010.
Brexit has stopped all that for now, and people have been voting to promote a cause and to exclude the alternative. The LDs can't score in that situation.
Repeated government and parliamentary failure has demonstrated the need for competence above all. At the last election a vote for centrist competence was not available and Boris won because there was no liberal democratic non authoritarian government to vote for.
Which is why Labour is working hard on centrist competence. If it can get there it can win. Whether it can get there is an open question. But in the national picture the LDs can't figure except on the margins.
Its not just nightclubs - its the entire entertainment industry. Clubs and venues who have live bands in are finished. As are many of the bands and the people who take bands out on the road. Orchestras - utterly screwed. We could lose a significant amount of our culture...
That was one of the very strong reasons for relaxing the pub closing times in the 00's. Instead of chucking all the drinkers out onto city centerstreets at 11.30, the closing times are staggered significantly reducing the level of public disorder.
Italian streets look like that every evening (with a few more masks), or at least they did until the weather turned. Yet their figure yesterday was +1786 to the UK’s +6634.
Is Raab determined to prove that he was right all along, that Dover is not a significant part of the UK economy?
Perhaps he was just superforcasting and meant that post Brexit Dover would not be significant to the economy. An economy that has us picking turnips out of frosty mud in a Brexit Year Zero.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Good question. I think that they face two or three emerging problems: As politics gets more presidential in tone people are voting for a leader/PM, and in that particular race the LDs cannot figure.
A vote for LD was at times a vote for the favoured one of three parties each of which was at least modestly competent to run a centrist government. It was therefore an affordable luxury to vote LD - it added to the mix of what ever government you got as in 2010.
Brexit has stopped all that for now, and people have been voting to promote a cause and to exclude the alternative. The LDs can't score in that situation.
Repeated government and parliamentary failure has demonstrated the need for competence above all. At the last election a vote for centrist competence was not available and Boris won because there was no liberal democratic non authoritarian government to vote for.
Which is why Labour is working hard on centrist competence. If it can get there it can win. Whether it can get there is an open question. But in the national picture the LDs can't figure except on the margins.
Lib Dem Conference opens tonight. Interesting to see what direction Ed Davey takes.
Its not just nightclubs - its the entire entertainment industry. Clubs and venues who have live bands in are finished. As are many of the bands and the people who take bands out on the road. Orchestras - utterly screwed. We could lose a significant amount of our culture...
Yes, this greatly worries me too. I think the chancellor's measures are good, but too generous for retail and not generous enough for culture and hospitality. I'd have cut retail and office based workers off entirely and kept support for the hospitality and culture at much higher levels. There is no reason to be subsidising retail jobs now, they will sink or swim in the new reality of the UK market.
There’s going to have to be a deal, isn’t there? Whether the Tories like its contents or not. What has been obvious to any thinking person is finally dawning on the government; insofar as we had any cards, they have been played, but not won any tricks.
The irony is that some form of further transitional extension - which the government has done its best to deny itself - would be better than a bad ongoing deal.
No way, I read on here yesterday that Barnier was folding because of Boris' brinkmanship.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Can we assume that every night club in the country is about to go bust?
I said there needed to be a special class of bankruptcy for nightclubs ages back
Sadly, we will have very few pubs or night life to return to if a vaccine does finally save us from this endless in/out lockdown policy.
most activities in this sector will, if they have a market, reinvent themselves. Culture that needs long term state subsidy should be left to its own demise, if it can’t attract audiences that make it economically viable then so be it. The world Is going to be different no matter how hard people try to resist the change.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
This needs to be heard more widely. The indirect costs of Johnson's Lockdown policy on health and economics are mounting steeply.
What a mess.
It isn't really the fault of the government's lockdown policy. It is the inevitable result of having a healthcare system that runs at 90% of bed capacity even in the best of times. We can switch capacity to pandemic work, but at the cost of regular work. We cannot pack waiting areas and operating lists like sardines either. There needs to be extra cleaning, PPE and social distancing.
Unfortunately my predictions in my header (17 May) are coming true, perhaps I was even too cautious with them.
Is there scope for expanding working hours, perhaps bringing in retired staff? I was struck how completely inactive the Royal Surrey looked on a Saturday evening. I think lots of patients with pressing needs would be perfectly willing to come in at midnight or whatever. But this may be simply impractical?
Weekend papers will no doubt be full of stories of house parties starting at 10:05pm and so on.
As I posted the other day, the Dutch looked at early closing and decided it would make things worse.
Daughter was invited by one of her customers to carry on the socialising at the customer’s home after the pub closed at 10. You may imagine how she felt about that.
Weekend papers will no doubt be full of stories of house parties starting at 10:05pm and so on.
As I posted the other day, the Dutch looked at early closing and decided it would make things worse.
Daughter was invited by one of her customers to carry on the socialising at the customer’s home after the pub closed at 10. You may imagine how she felt about that.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
You can agree that Lockdown 2.0 is necessary and still support the argument that the executive is taking way too much power without parliamentary debate and scrutiny.
There’s going to have to be a deal, isn’t there? Whether the Tories like its contents or not. What has been obvious to any thinking person is finally dawning on the government; insofar as we had any cards, they have been played, but not won any tricks.
The irony is that some form of further transitional extension - which the government has done its best to deny itself - would be better than a bad ongoing deal.
No way, I read on here yesterday that Barnier was folding because of Boris' brinkmanship.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
This needs to be heard more widely. The indirect costs of Johnson's Lockdown policy on health and economics are mounting steeply.
What a mess.
It isn't really the fault of the government's lockdown policy. It is the inevitable result of having a healthcare system that runs at 90% of bed capacity even in the best of times. We can switch capacity to pandemic work, but at the cost of regular work. We cannot pack waiting areas and operating lists like sardines either. There needs to be extra cleaning, PPE and social distancing.
Unfortunately my predictions in my header (17 May) are coming true, perhaps I was even too cautious with them.
Is there scope for expanding working hours, perhaps bringing in retired staff? I was struck how completely inactive the Royal Surrey looked on a Saturday evening. I think lots of patients with pressing needs would be perfectly willing to come in at midnight or whatever. But this may be simply impractical?
I did mention that in my header.
Yes, there is some potential there, but as NHS costs are 70% staffing, and in many areas there are staff shortages, evening and weekend work is often at the expense of office hours working.
Our dept have been working evenings and weekends on non emergency work for more than a decade.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
Bloody hell, you think parliamentary debates are proper if and only if they conclude with a vote for the government?
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Good question. I think that they face two or three emerging problems: As politics gets more presidential in tone people are voting for a leader/PM, and in that particular race the LDs cannot figure.
A vote for LD was at times a vote for the favoured one of three parties each of which was at least modestly competent to run a centrist government. It was therefore an affordable luxury to vote LD - it added to the mix of what ever government you got as in 2010.
Brexit has stopped all that for now, and people have been voting to promote a cause and to exclude the alternative. The LDs can't score in that situation.
Repeated government and parliamentary failure has demonstrated the need for competence above all. At the last election a vote for centrist competence was not available and Boris won because there was no liberal democratic non authoritarian government to vote for.
Which is why Labour is working hard on centrist competence. If it can get there it can win. Whether it can get there is an open question. But in the national picture the LDs can't figure except on the margins.
Lib Dem Conference opens tonight. Interesting to see what direction Ed Davey takes.
The words interesting and Ed Davey rarely appear together in a sentence.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
With an eighty seat majority, I think it unlikely that anything will be voted down.
A wide-ranging discussion with 650 representatives of all parts of the land may well improve the quality of government decision making. Compliance is much more likely if consent is obtained first.
This programme is very well worth listening to. The politicians on it are quite open about the fact that they are gerrymandering and suppressing votes and why.
Its not just nightclubs - its the entire entertainment industry. Clubs and venues who have live bands in are finished. As are many of the bands and the people who take bands out on the road. Orchestras - utterly screwed. We could lose a significant amount of our culture...
Yes, this greatly worries me too. I think the chancellor's measures are good, but too generous for retail and not generous enough for culture and hospitality. I'd have cut retail and office based workers off entirely and kept support for the hospitality and culture at much higher levels. There is no reason to be subsidising retail jobs now, they will sink or swim in the new reality of the UK market.
Two things struck me about yesterday’s statement:-
1. It seemed completely unrelated to the previous statement about additional restrictions, as if the left hand and right hand of government are simply not speaking to each other. 2. The PM was not present. Why not for such a critical announcement?
I wonder if anyone in government or Brexit ultras has doubts when they heard about the policy to have special passes to enter Kent. Did anyone pipe up and say ‘Hang on chaps, we might be making a mistake here’? You have to wonder,
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
Bloody hell, you think parliamentary debates are proper if and only if they conclude with a vote for the government?
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
It's blatantly obvious that removing all the restrictions is the goal behind the anodyne demand for 'proper debate', given how it's being pushed by fans of lockdownsceptics.
Are you still pushing the same nonsense you were a few days ago about false positives being the real explanation for the rising cases and hospitalizations, or have you given up on that?
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Staffing issues also mentioned. Certainly both stroke and major trauma outcomes have benefited from concentration at fewer sites in London. Paediatric emergencies would probably benefit from the same approach.
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Good question. I think that they face two or three emerging problems: As politics gets more presidential in tone people are voting for a leader/PM, and in that particular race the LDs cannot figure.
A vote for LD was at times a vote for the favoured one of three parties each of which was at least modestly competent to run a centrist government. It was therefore an affordable luxury to vote LD - it added to the mix of what ever government you got as in 2010.
Brexit has stopped all that for now, and people have been voting to promote a cause and to exclude the alternative. The LDs can't score in that situation.
Repeated government and parliamentary failure has demonstrated the need for competence above all. At the last election a vote for centrist competence was not available and Boris won because there was no liberal democratic non authoritarian government to vote for.
Which is why Labour is working hard on centrist competence. If it can get there it can win. Whether it can get there is an open question. But in the national picture the LDs can't figure except on the margins.
I am hopeful that as the Rona continues to seek and destroy people's livelihoods that our Universal Basic Income policy will appeal...
Its not just nightclubs - its the entire entertainment industry. Clubs and venues who have live bands in are finished. As are many of the bands and the people who take bands out on the road. Orchestras - utterly screwed. We could lose a significant amount of our culture...
There should be some sort of ‘freeze’ scheme in place for venues that are going to be held shut for possibly a year or more. This will include nightclubs, music venues, comedy clubs, theatres etc. Allow the venues to furlough permanent staff with 2/3 salary up to 25k, and to claim universal credit. Eliminate business rates, tell banks to offer mortgage holidays to landlords and work with utility companies to waive bills based on the minimium required useage to keep the venue mothballed.
A great many people working in this sector are also self-employed so we need to keep looking after them too. For every Jimmy Carr and Frankie Boyle there’s hundreds of comedians who were earning £50 a night, not to mention all all the technical, logistical, security people working behind the scenes in entertainment.
Two things struck me about yesterday’s statement:-
1. It seemed completely unrelated to the previous statement about additional restrictions, as if the left hand and right hand of government are simply not speaking to each other. 2. The PM was not present. Why not for such a critical announcement?
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Good question. I think that they face two or three emerging problems: As politics gets more presidential in tone people are voting for a leader/PM, and in that particular race the LDs cannot figure.
A vote for LD was at times a vote for the favoured one of three parties each of which was at least modestly competent to run a centrist government. It was therefore an affordable luxury to vote LD - it added to the mix of what ever government you got as in 2010.
Brexit has stopped all that for now, and people have been voting to promote a cause and to exclude the alternative. The LDs can't score in that situation.
Repeated government and parliamentary failure has demonstrated the need for competence above all. At the last election a vote for centrist competence was not available and Boris won because there was no liberal democratic non authoritarian government to vote for.
Which is why Labour is working hard on centrist competence. If it can get there it can win. Whether it can get there is an open question. But in the national picture the LDs can't figure except on the margins.
Lib Dem Conference opens tonight. Interesting to see what direction Ed Davey takes.
The words interesting and Ed Davey rarely appear together in a sentence.
The main motions this evening are about universal basic income and good public debate.
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
I wonder if anyone in government or Brexit ultras has doubts when they heard about the policy to have special passes to enter Kent. Did anyone pipe up and say ‘Hang on chaps, we might be making a mistake here’? You have to wonder,
The culture of fear being run by Cummings means that neither SPADs nor Senior Civil Servants are willing to raise doubts over policies. Only "yes men" are welcome. Hence poorly thought through policy is routine.
Its not just nightclubs - its the entire entertainment industry. Clubs and venues who have live bands in are finished. As are many of the bands and the people who take bands out on the road. Orchestras - utterly screwed. We could lose a significant amount of our culture...
There should be some sort of ‘freeze’ scheme in place for venues that are going to be held shut for possibly a year or more. This will include nightclubs, music venues, comedy clubs, theatres etc. Allow the venues to furlough permanent staff with 2/3 salary up to 25k, and to claim universal credit. Eliminate business rates, tell banks to offer mortgage holidays to landlords and work with utility companies to waive bills based on the minimium required useage to keep the venue mothballed.
A great many people working in this sector are also self-employed so we need to keep looking after them too. For every Jimmy Carr and Frankie Boyle there’s hundreds of comedians who were earning £50 a night, not to mention all all the technical, logistical, security people working behind the scenes in entertainment.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
Bloody hell, you think parliamentary debates are proper if and only if they conclude with a vote for the government?
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
It's blatantly obvious that removing all the restrictions is the goal behind the anodyne demand for 'proper debate', given how it's being pushed by fans of lockdownsceptics.
Are you still pushing the same nonsense you were a few days ago about false positives being the real explanation for the rising cases and hospitalizations, or have you given up on that?
There's no shame in being shit-scared about all of this and hence holding onto nurse/any other figure of authority/the govt.
However, I think it is a good idea to hold every government to account via parliament, no matter the topic.
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
Local pub has opened a village shop inside it selling local produce. They do more business than the pub used to. A bit late maybe, but one idea.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Staffing issues also mentioned. Certainly both stroke and major trauma outcomes have benefited from concentration at fewer sites in London. Paediatric emergencies would probably benefit from the same approach.
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
Yup: 17 miles along windy roads to nearest major hospital. There is a small one attached to the GP surgery in nearest town. But for emergencies here air ambulances are used.
I wonder if anyone in government or Brexit ultras has doubts when they heard about the policy to have special passes to enter Kent. Did anyone pipe up and say ‘Hang on chaps, we might be making a mistake here’? You have to wonder,
It’s lost in the news priority system, it justified two sentences the other day when the Gove letter was published. No comment, no analysis, no talking heads, on to the next item. This government is useless at most things but news management isn’t one of them.
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
Local pub has opened a village shop inside it selling local produce. They do more business than the pub used to. A bit late maybe, but one idea.
Yes, my local pub has diversified with a deli selling artisan foodstuffs to people working from home. Hambleton bakery sourdough etc.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Staffing issues also mentioned. Certainly both stroke and major trauma outcomes have benefited from concentration at fewer sites in London. Paediatric emergencies would probably benefit from the same approach.
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
Yup: 17 miles along windy roads to nearest major hospital. There is a small one attached to the GP surgery in nearest town. But for emergencies here air ambulances are used.
17 miles at 50mph or 2miles at 5mph. Not a huge amount of difference there.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
Bloody hell, you think parliamentary debates are proper if and only if they conclude with a vote for the government?
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
It's blatantly obvious that removing all the restrictions is the goal behind the anodyne demand for 'proper debate', given how it's being pushed by fans of lockdownsceptics.
Are you still pushing the same nonsense you were a few days ago about false positives being the real explanation for the rising cases and hospitalizations, or have you given up on that?
You didn't understand that argument then and you don't understand it now, you tagged on to a couple of people who did (and who also understood that all I did was correctly clarify what Bayes' Theorem says). If you think false positives imply rising hospitalizations you understood it even less than I thought you did.
Moving on to political theory, you seem to genuinely believe that parliament should be prevented from voting on things in case it disagrees with the government. There really is no way back from that.
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
There's a stark difference however between teachers who have recorded lectures and sessions specifically for this new reality, and those who have just released the recordings of last year's in-person sessions.
I also find that those who break lectures up into 15-20 minute "podcasts" work much better than those doing the traditional 1 hour lectures. Makes it much easier to review and keep concentration at home. Especially if you have other commitments.
I am very bitter that I do not get the opportunity to at least have 1 pub visit with everyone on the course to start to build relationships. That was such an important part of last year's course, and helped with support doing the work, revision, and for help with job applications, etc. Not being able to do this is a massive, massive downside.
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
Local pub has opened a village shop inside it selling local produce. They do more business than the pub used to. A bit late maybe, but one idea.
She did a bit of that at the start of lockdown - for deliveries to those unable to get to the shops. But even using wholesalers she simply cannot match Tesco prices. On some products Tesco is cheaper than the wholesalers. She has an off licence now and continues to do takeaways etc. It is a balance between having enough stock in to serve customers and having too much in and losing it if there is a lockdown, which is what she expects. If there is, the local hospital will benefit from the money bet by customers on which date that lockdown will be.
Normally during this quieter season she tries to have events: quiz nights, local bands etc, guest chefs etc to bring people in but so many of these are now not permitted. The weather is nice at the moment which may help. But until Xmas this is the lean season when you rely on the fat earned during the summer. This year .....
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Staffing issues also mentioned. Certainly both stroke and major trauma outcomes have benefited from concentration at fewer sites in London. Paediatric emergencies would probably benefit from the same approach.
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
Yup: 17 miles along windy roads to nearest major hospital. There is a small one attached to the GP surgery in nearest town. But for emergencies here air ambulances are used.
17 miles at 50mph or 2miles at 5mph. Not a huge amount of difference there.
There is clear evidence from centres for trauma and stroke in London that the extra travel time is far outweighed by the 24 hour expertise available on fewer sites.
Stroke Mortality down by 25% and costs down by 6% for example:
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
There's a stark difference however between teachers who have recorded lectures and sessions specifically for this new reality, and those who have just released the recordings of last year's in-person sessions.
I also find that those who break lectures up into 15-20 minute "podcasts" work much better than those doing the traditional 1 hour lectures. Makes it much easier to review and keep concentration at home. Especially if you have other commitments.
I am very bitter that I do not get the opportunity to at least have 1 pub visit with everyone on the course to start to build relationships. That was such an important part of last year's course, and helped with support doing the work, revision, and for help with job applications, etc. Not being able to do this is a massive, massive downside.
Can’t you do the pub visits with groups of 6 or less?
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
Local pub has opened a village shop inside it selling local produce. They do more business than the pub used to. A bit late maybe, but one idea.
Yes, my local pub has diversified with a deli selling artisan foodstuffs to people working from home. Hambleton bakery sourdough etc.
Very nice, but adding to the coronakilos.
I have had a takeaway from my local pub every week just about since lockdown began.
And really if you're going to have a takeaway it can't not be burger & chips or fish & chips.
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Staffing issues also mentioned. Certainly both stroke and major trauma outcomes have benefited from concentration at fewer sites in London. Paediatric emergencies would probably benefit from the same approach.
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
Yup: 17 miles along windy roads to nearest major hospital. There is a small one attached to the GP surgery in nearest town. But for emergencies here air ambulances are used.
17 miles at 50mph or 2miles at 5mph. Not a huge amount of difference there.
If you do 50 mph on the roads here you’ll be DOA. The state of the local roads is a disgrace.
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
I expect WFH is much better for mature students than youngsters. You have the support and the structure around you already in terms of friends and family. To expect working from home, yet in halls for an 18 yr old that's a scary and isolating issue.
Expect a lot of drops outs and mental health issues.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
Bloody hell, you think parliamentary debates are proper if and only if they conclude with a vote for the government?
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
It's blatantly obvious that removing all the restrictions is the goal behind the anodyne demand for 'proper debate', given how it's being pushed by fans of lockdownsceptics.
Are you still pushing the same nonsense you were a few days ago about false positives being the real explanation for the rising cases and hospitalizations, or have you given up on that?
You didn't understand that argument then and you don't understand it now, you tagged on to a couple of people who did (and who also understood that all I did was correctly clarify what Bayes' Theorem says). If you think false positives imply rising hospitalizations you understood it even less than I thought you did.
Moving on to political theory, you seem to genuinely believe that parliament should be prevented from voting on things in case it disagrees with the government. There really is no way back from that.
Nice try to wriggle out of how completely wrong you (and the illustrious Retired Bloke) were. I most certainly don't think that false positives imply rising hospitalizations - the fact that rising hospitalizations have immediately followed the rise in cases demonstrates how stupid it is to write off the latter as false positives.
Still, at least you've given up on pushing it, so that's something.
I wonder if anyone in government or Brexit ultras has doubts when they heard about the policy to have special passes to enter Kent. Did anyone pipe up and say ‘Hang on chaps, we might be making a mistake here’? You have to wonder,
The culture of fear being run by Cummings means that neither SPADs nor Senior Civil Servants are willing to raise doubts over policies. Only "yes men" are welcome. Hence poorly thought through policy is routine.
The problem with that no doubt satisfying premise is that the quality of decision making by our Civil Service was abysmal before Cummings arrived on the scene. It has been for a long time now.
You can agree that Lockdown 2.0 is necessary and still support the argument that the executive is taking way too much power without parliamentary debate and scrutiny.
Just getting that of my chest.
Now I'm off to count masks at the local shop.
I may have had disagreements with you, but I can and do completely endorse that.
And while they can argue that in an emergency, such action is necessary, the argument gets more hollow when the emergency has been going on for more than half a year.
"Superforecasters" should have prepared a bunch of scenarios to roll out (rather than being apparently caught on the hop at every turn) and therefore prepared and debated legislation needed for each scenario in advance. Government by reaction leads to bad legislation and bad government.
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
There's a stark difference however between teachers who have recorded lectures and sessions specifically for this new reality, and those who have just released the recordings of last year's in-person sessions.
I also find that those who break lectures up into 15-20 minute "podcasts" work much better than those doing the traditional 1 hour lectures. Makes it much easier to review and keep concentration at home. Especially if you have other commitments.
I am very bitter that I do not get the opportunity to at least have 1 pub visit with everyone on the course to start to build relationships. That was such an important part of last year's course, and helped with support doing the work, revision, and for help with job applications, etc. Not being able to do this is a massive, massive downside.
Can’t you do the pub visits with groups of 6 or less?
People are understandably nervous, considering we are in "local lockdown" here and considering there's 60 people on the course and no real "forum" to even organise something like this, it hasn't been possible thus far. Normally it would just be a loud "hey, we're all going to the pub" after the first introductory session!
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
Local pub has opened a village shop inside it selling local produce. They do more business than the pub used to. A bit late maybe, but one idea.
She did a bit of that at the start of lockdown - for deliveries to those unable to get to the shops. But even using wholesalers she simply cannot match Tesco prices. On some products Tesco is cheaper than the wholesalers. She has an off licence now and continues to do takeaways etc. It is a balance between having enough stock in to serve customers and having too much in and losing it if there is a lockdown, which is what she expects. If there is, the local hospital will benefit from the money bet by customers on which date that lockdown will be.
Normally during this quieter season she tries to have events: quiz nights, local bands etc, guest chefs etc to bring people in but so many of these are now not permitted. The weather is nice at the moment which may help. But until Xmas this is the lean season when you rely on the fat earned during the summer. This year .....
Oh good luck. Clearly you shouldn’t try to compete with Tesco on price, but in the age of Corona who wants to go to a supermarket compared to a swift pickup at a local shop with no queues.
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
I expect WFH is much better for mature students than youngsters. You have the support and the structure around you already in terms of friends and family. To expect working from home, yet in halls for an 18 yr old that's a scary and isolating issue.
Expect a lot of drops outs and mental health issues.
Oh without a doubt. Being a 1st year undergraduate, and in halls, is going to be horrendous this year.
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Yes, the freedom to catch and spread dangerous diseases for no good reason has always been the cornerstone of their political philosophy.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Well, it doesn't have to as strong as that. Simply being one of those groups leading for a proper parliamentary debate of covid lockdown laws would at least show that the bird is not a dead parrot.
A 'proper parliamentary debate' after which you'd like them and as many other MPs as possible to vote all the laws down? Is that the idea?
Bloody hell, you think parliamentary debates are proper if and only if they conclude with a vote for the government?
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
It's blatantly obvious that removing all the restrictions is the goal behind the anodyne demand for 'proper debate', given how it's being pushed by fans of lockdownsceptics.
Are you still pushing the same nonsense you were a few days ago about false positives being the real explanation for the rising cases and hospitalizations, or have you given up on that?
You didn't understand that argument then and you don't understand it now, you tagged on to a couple of people who did (and who also understood that all I did was correctly clarify what Bayes' Theorem says). If you think false positives imply rising hospitalizations you understood it even less than I thought you did.
Moving on to political theory, you seem to genuinely believe that parliament should be prevented from voting on things in case it disagrees with the government. There really is no way back from that.
Realistically, Labour are likely to support any restrictions, so there's no problems winning the votes. However, the government doesn't like having to debate stuff, and won't want to expose divisions on its own side.
But those splits are what happens when you deliberately attract UKIP types. You end up with a proportion of fruitcakes and loonies...
We are going to have to have an adult conversation about how long we can continue responding to Covid in the way that we are pretty soon. I was looking at the draft budget for our management company yesterday and thinking it was wildly optimistic (in fairness the figures were prepared before the second lockdown). The trade off between the economy and lives is going to have to change, it really is.
I was looking at the budget of one of our chronic disease programmes. Income for the first half of the Fin Year will be 15% of the previous year, and the costs, mostly staff, identical. The staff were mostly redeployed during the peak of the outbreak, and now socially distanced outpatients is grossly inhibiting productivity.
The NHS financial position is bad, but looking to nosedive precipitously.
If the staff were redeployed presumably they don't still come out of your programme's budget?
No, it is still our budget.
Just like when the respiratory unit took over the breast cancer wards, they got paid for the admissions and the breast unit picks up the tab. That is how our internal market works.
12 month waiting lists now routine in the surgical units too. The worst that I have known in my 30 years in the NHS.
The A&E paediatric unit at the Royal Free Hospital is closing (temporarily one hopes) as it is designated as a Covid-hospital.
Staffing issues also mentioned. Certainly both stroke and major trauma outcomes have benefited from concentration at fewer sites in London. Paediatric emergencies would probably benefit from the same approach.
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
Yup: 17 miles along windy roads to nearest major hospital. There is a small one attached to the GP surgery in nearest town. But for emergencies here air ambulances are used.
17 miles at 50mph or 2miles at 5mph. Not a huge amount of difference there.
There is clear evidence from centres for trauma and stroke in London that the extra travel time is far outweighed by the 24 hour expertise available on fewer sites.
Stroke Mortality down by 25% and costs down by 6% for example:
I know, a policy needs to take into account the human dimension and the full experience of the treatment. Having supported my mother through Leukaemia last year, distance does make a difference to the patient and family’s experience. Trudging 20miles each day to a clinic with limited parking takes a toll when you are over 70 on chemo.
Anyhow, Wednesday night was reasonably busy in daughter’s pub. Last night it was dead. Second night this week that it’s been like this. Feels to her like the days leading up to the first lockdown. She fully expects a second one. But if there isn’t and trade does not pick up, she won’t make it to the end of October, never mind Xmas.
Depressing.
That's not depressing. It shows that people are taking the warnings seriously and limiting the amount they mix socially with others, especially in settings where alchohol is likely to reduce inhibitions on behaviour. If we are to stand a chance of putting a lid on the scale and duration of the second wave, behaviour needs to change. So it's good that people are choosing to avoid pubs.
What is depressing is how limited Sunak's post October package of support was for even for businesses such as your daughter's, let alone those effectively unable to trade at all. There are plenty of businesses that are viable in the long term but which won't ever see it because they will go to the wall in the short term. There are also those in retail that would be viable if only they had the assurance now that there are to be long term changes towards easing business rates and introducing at least equivalent taxes on online retail. The sort of thing that could have been announced in the phantom Autumn Budget.
Lockdowns should target the activities that spread the virus, they should not be blanket restrictions that actually cause resentment amongst those they are supposed to help. I’ve never seen any figures that tell us the main causes of spread but these should be published to help people modify behavior. Shutting everything down when you reach some magical infection rate per 100,000 may not even solve the problem. There needs to be a much more data driven approach, alongside local knowledge to determine the best way forward for a community.
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
There's a stark difference however between teachers who have recorded lectures and sessions specifically for this new reality, and those who have just released the recordings of last year's in-person sessions.
I also find that those who break lectures up into 15-20 minute "podcasts" work much better than those doing the traditional 1 hour lectures. Makes it much easier to review and keep concentration at home. Especially if you have other commitments.
I am very bitter that I do not get the opportunity to at least have 1 pub visit with everyone on the course to start to build relationships. That was such an important part of last year's course, and helped with support doing the work, revision, and for help with job applications, etc. Not being able to do this is a massive, massive downside.
That's good to know. I'm recording lectures as 20-30 minute episodes rather than the traditional hour. And compositing slides with demonstration material as I go.
The bad news is that it's unbelievably time-consuming. If I spend all day on it, with no other distractions, I can just about manage one episode per day - and be exhausted at the end of that day. I hope students appreciate the end-product...!
Lockdowns should target the activities that spread the virus, they should not be blanket restrictions that actually cause resentment amongst those they are supposed to help. I’ve never seen any figures that tell us the main causes of spread but these should be published to help people modify behavior. Shutting everything down when you reach some magical infection rate per 100,000 may not even solve the problem. There needs to be a much more data driven approach, alongside local knowledge to determine the best way forward for a community.
Do people know?
There was that comical illustration of people standing and sitting with for the former the virus hitting them square in the face and for the latter it sailing over their heads.
And people on this very site were citing it as proof if proof be needed that pubs where people are sitting at tables provided more protection against it.
There is, in short, a lot of bollocks out there.
For example, I simply don't see how someone by virtue of their age can be any different in receiving and passing on the virus (ie children). But then, unlike others on PB, IANAVE.
In fact, when measured in terms of their impact on the present value of UK GDP, the Brexit shock is forecast to be two to three times greater than the impact of COVID-19.
University update. I'm a "mature" postgraduate student so my experience is not typical, however I'm finding WFH as a learning experience really quite good, at least for the theory side. It remains to be seen how the vocational aspect will function.
I expect WFH is much better for mature students than youngsters. You have the support and the structure around you already in terms of friends and family. To expect working from home, yet in halls for an 18 yr old that's a scary and isolating issue.
Expect a lot of drops outs and mental health issues.
Oh without a doubt. Being a 1st year undergraduate, and in halls, is going to be horrendous this year.
My masters students (who are a bit older than the 21-22 yo's in UK master's courses) seemed to cope well enough with the online semester. My 1st and 2nd semester Bachelor students found it much more difficult.
Edit to add: the 1st semester students had the big disadvantage of not being able to meet any of their fellow students at the start of the programme, which was in the middle of the full lockdown.
Comments
"Who the hell even makes up this sort of crackpot policy? What sort of emotional zombie believes that taking a wrecking ball to our families will win over Britain’s hearts and minds? Let me take a guess – “super talented weirdos” with “genuine cognitive diversity”. You remember them; Dominic ‘SpecSavers’ Cummings sought to bring fresh blood into the civil service by putting a shout out to “true wild cards..."
Ouch.
Key question- how many of his current BFFs will be prepared to admit to themselves that they've been had, and how many will persuade themselves that whatever the EU puts in front of BoJo to sign is what they've wanted all along?
But it seems a fairly clear indication of the way the party is thinking. Trump is far from the only Republican wanting to put a very large thumb on the scale.
If anyone is seriously interested in electoral reform, it needs to start with serious plans and funding, early in any administration. And it will have to be carried through at the state level.
And, of course, must be bipartisan.
What a mess.
(I reserve the right to perpetrate equally dismal witticisms.)
He's looking for people who forecast there is lithium for car batteries on Mars and can knock up a plan to send a team of Durham ex-coal miners up there in a world beating first.
Sorted.... ?
Is Raab determined to prove that he was right all along, that Dover is not a significant part of the UK economy?
Fantastic opportunity to start a conversation with some Tory voters who are becoming increasingly disillusioned by their government's authoritarian direction?
The 'bird of freedom' and all that.
Simply not a functioning democracy.
Something like Chapter 11 for the nightclubs in my opinion. If you're a nightclub creditor right now - well you'll need to just write off the losses and that includes HMRC.
£6bn spent on furlough and £5bn on the self employed scheme, we can see now why the chancellor has made the next part of the scheme much less generous. Even with the same number of people utilising it the cost will go down by around 70% so we're looking at between £3-4bn per month and falling rapidly as people are brought back or made redundant. This is also going to be an interesting experiment for unemployment, lots of people have said JSA should look very much like this so there will be a lot of education for the government.
Unfortunately my predictions in my header (17 May) are coming true, perhaps I was even too cautious with them.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/17/28-weeks-later-the-coronavirus-aftermath-for-the-nhs-and-its-political-implications/
The irony is that some form of further transitional extension - which the government has done its best to deny itself - would be better than a bad ongoing deal.
Well... surely no one could have seen that coming?
As politics gets more presidential in tone people are voting for a leader/PM, and in that particular race the LDs cannot figure.
A vote for LD was at times a vote for the favoured one of three parties each of which was at least modestly competent to run a centrist government. It was therefore an affordable luxury to vote LD - it added to the mix of what ever government you got as in 2010.
Brexit has stopped all that for now, and people have been voting to promote a cause and to exclude the alternative. The LDs can't score in that situation.
Repeated government and parliamentary failure has demonstrated the need for competence above all. At the last election a vote for centrist competence was not available and Boris won because there was no liberal democratic non authoritarian government to vote for.
Which is why Labour is working hard on centrist competence. If it can get there it can win. Whether it can get there is an open question. But in the national picture the LDs can't figure except on the margins.
I even believe Isaiah Berlin was going to include it in his famous essay as the third concept of liberty, until he gave it a millisecond's thought and decided against it.
Just getting that of my chest.
Now I'm off to count masks at the local shop.
Yes, there is some potential there, but as NHS costs are 70% staffing, and in many areas there are staff shortages, evening and weekend work is often at the expense of office hours working.
Our dept have been working evenings and weekends on non emergency work for more than a decade.
Another card-carrying Tufty Club member who thinks he's a conservative.
A wide-ranging discussion with 650 representatives of all parts of the land may well improve the quality of government decision making. Compliance is much more likely if consent is obtained first.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000l8dw
1. It seemed completely unrelated to the previous statement about additional restrictions, as if the left hand and right hand of government are simply not speaking to each other.
2. The PM was not present. Why not for such a critical announcement?
Are you still pushing the same nonsense you were a few days ago about false positives being the real explanation for the rising cases and hospitalizations, or have you given up on that?
I am sure that Londoners complaining of an extra 2 miles to the A/E unit doesn't go down well in rural Cumbria!
A great many people working in this sector are also self-employed so we need to keep looking after them too. For every Jimmy Carr and Frankie Boyle there’s hundreds of comedians who were earning £50 a night, not to mention all all the technical, logistical, security people working behind the scenes in entertainment.
Depressing.
Still, more time to panic buy for a No Deal Brexit. So there is that ......
However, I think it is a good idea to hold every government to account via parliament, no matter the topic.
Very nice, but adding to the coronakilos.
Moving on to political theory, you seem to genuinely believe that parliament should be prevented from voting on things in case it disagrees with the government. There really is no way back from that.
There's a stark difference however between teachers who have recorded lectures and sessions specifically for this new reality, and those who have just released the recordings of last year's in-person sessions.
I also find that those who break lectures up into 15-20 minute "podcasts" work much better than those doing the traditional 1 hour lectures. Makes it much easier to review and keep concentration at home. Especially if you have other commitments.
I am very bitter that I do not get the opportunity to at least have 1 pub visit with everyone on the course to start to build relationships. That was such an important part of last year's course, and helped with support doing the work, revision, and for help with job applications, etc. Not being able to do this is a massive, massive downside.
Normally during this quieter season she tries to have events: quiz nights, local bands etc, guest chefs etc to bring people in but so many of these are now not permitted. The weather is nice at the moment which may help. But until Xmas this is the lean season when you rely on the fat earned during the summer. This year .....
Stroke Mortality down by 25% and costs down by 6% for example:
https://hbr.org/2013/11/londons-hyperacute-stroke-units-improve-outcomes-and-lower-costs
And really if you're going to have a takeaway it can't not be burger & chips or fish & chips.
Expect a lot of drops outs and mental health issues.
Still, at least you've given up on pushing it, so that's something.
And while they can argue that in an emergency, such action is necessary, the argument gets more hollow when the emergency has been going on for more than half a year.
"Superforecasters" should have prepared a bunch of scenarios to roll out (rather than being apparently caught on the hop at every turn) and therefore prepared and debated legislation needed for each scenario in advance. Government by reaction leads to bad legislation and bad government.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-brexit-deal-is-within-touching-distance-87wczflz6
However, the government doesn't like having to debate stuff, and won't want to expose divisions on its own side.
But those splits are what happens when you deliberately attract UKIP types. You end up with a proportion of fruitcakes and loonies...
Brexit, deal or no deal, was never the big issue claimed by either side. Covid is the issue and we are in serious trouble.
What is depressing is how limited Sunak's post October package of support was for even for businesses such as your daughter's, let alone those effectively unable to trade at all. There are plenty of businesses that are viable in the long term but which won't ever see it because they will go to the wall in the short term. There are also those in retail that would be viable if only they had the assurance now that there are to be long term changes towards easing business rates and introducing at least equivalent taxes on online retail. The sort of thing that could have been announced in the phantom Autumn Budget.
The bad news is that it's unbelievably time-consuming. If I spend all day on it, with no other distractions, I can just about manage one episode per day - and be exhausted at the end of that day. I hope students appreciate the end-product...!
--AS
There was that comical illustration of people standing and sitting with for the former the virus hitting them square in the face and for the latter it sailing over their heads.
And people on this very site were citing it as proof if proof be needed that pubs where people are sitting at tables provided more protection against it.
There is, in short, a lot of bollocks out there.
For example, I simply don't see how someone by virtue of their age can be any different in receiving and passing on the virus (ie children). But then, unlike others on PB, IANAVE.
A no-deal Brexit may still be more costly than COVID-19
In fact, when measured in terms of their impact on the present value of UK GDP, the Brexit shock is forecast to be two to three times greater than the impact of COVID-19.
Edit to add: the 1st semester students had the big disadvantage of not being able to meet any of their fellow students at the start of the programme, which was in the middle of the full lockdown.