politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam

Tim_B said:

ProudToBeLabour said:

Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage.

How many jobs are created by raising the minimum wage?

Quite. And while we're about this particular post, how does Ed M propose to keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage? Mathematically, the only way to do this is to make the minimum wage the maximum wage.

Edin_Rokz said:

It makes me wonder that white British ex-service men going to fight in wars overseas does not bring the same type of judgement here. What about those who join the French and Spanish foreign legions, are they too to be stripped of their UK nationality? What about the Gurkhas and Sikhs in the British army?

Or is it because these people are not white, not Christian, not like us and that due to their different religious beliefs that they are a danger to all?

What about the young UK Jews who volunteer to do military service in Israel? Should they too be stripped of UK citizenship?

Should your argument be that anyone who goes overseas to fight and possibly die mean that they will be stripped of their passports. Makes a mockery of all those UK military of all religions who died in the Falklands, 2 Iraq wars and Afghanistan let alone all those who fought in the area from the Crusades to the present day.

Remember also that the UK has a lot of history in the middle East, a lot of which is not pleasant or nice. And because of that history and what could be called folk memories there is still a lot of antipathy to the UK and that by allowing petty vindictiveness of the sort quoted, we could be adding to the list of mistrust.

My own feeling is that these people are putting their untrained lives on the line for something they believe in, some will die (unfortunately that will happen), some will enjoy the adventure, some may become radicalised, and some may be so sickened by the madness of war that they will become pacifists. (Makes our xbox young look like effete wimps.)

Remember that it was UK and US meddling in the area that started the whole thing off. Russia got involved as well to "protect" their own interests. The problem really being all our governments, of all colours, having a severe lack of cojones to actually finish the job that they start and the brains to work out a viable end game. Syria being a prime example, let alone Iraq and Afghanistan.

Maybe this so called problem of radicalised UK moslem youths is the unintended byproduct of our own making?

All the examples you list - serving in the French or Spanish foreign legions, volunteering for the Israeli army, Gurkhas and Sikhs in the British army - are examples of people going to serve with regular armies of friendly nations. The same does not apply to jihadists going to serve in Syria.

Serving as a mercenary means one is not covered by the Geneva convention and can be tried as a common criminal by a court according to local laws. It is still illegal in the UK under the Foreign Enlistment Act of 1870 for anyone to serve with the armed forces of a state that is at war with a state that is at peace with Britain.

ProudToBeLabour said:

The reason that Clegg will lose is clear. He did not stand up for Sheffield Forgemasters, despite the sage advice of Ed Miliband.

Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.

Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.

Brilliant new spoof account. Top work. Keep it up.

ToryJim said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ToryJim said:

RochdalePioneers said:

GIN1138 said:

"Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.

Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.

Which would be the final insult. There is an honourable way for Clegg to resign, and as you suggest it seems the door is shut. Could be reopened though. As a Labourite its in our short term interest for Clegg tocling to his red boxes to the bitter end, I just can't believe that the party will let him.

Cameron isn't going to appoint a Europhile as commissioner.

Mere weeks after UKIP win a national election, too.

How convenient its leaked just about now.

My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Socrates said:

Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?

Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html

Neil said:

@Richard_Nabavi

That and a series of pretty young Sinn Fein candidates who looked like they've never murdered an innocent child in their lives have polled very well too.

An interesting strategy for choosing candidates, but effective I guess.

ProudToBeLabour said:

The reason that Clegg will lose is clear. He did not stand up for Sheffield Forgemasters, despite the sage advice of Ed Miliband.

Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.

Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.

I reckon UKIP/Conservative more likely to win Hallam than Labour. And they aren't going to.

Bring back Adrian Harper and ColinW and his mum.

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Daily mail front page -


http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98639/the_daily_mail_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html

Looks bloody dodgy doesn't he!

You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.

HurstLlama said:

Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

That's fantastic news.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Hurumph. Excuse me? Newark is a great place and certainly beats some Belgian backwater as a destination of choice.

I've never had the pleasure of visiting Newark, but I would take a hell of lot of persuading that the restaurants, ballet and opera beat those of Brussels.

Newark is a pretty market town where it well,might be nice to live, but...er...Richard N is right. Brussels is quite beautiful in some parts too (though overall also scruffier than Newark, like most big cities).

Quincel said:

ToryJim said:

RochdalePioneers said:

ToryJim said:

RochdalePioneers said:

GIN1138 said:

"Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.

Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.

Which would be the final insult. There is an honourable way for Clegg to resign, and as you suggest it seems the door is shut. Could be reopened though. As a Labourite its in our short term interest for Clegg tocling to his red boxes to the bitter end, I just can't believe that the party will let him.

Cameron isn't going to appoint a Europhile as commissioner.

Mere weeks after UKIP win a national election, too.

I suppose if he waits a few months and has some moer rumblings in his favour from Europe to show (no guarantee, that) he could spin such an appointment as being part of that process, in that a Europhile is appointed to reassure the bureucrats even as he, Cameron, gets some traction on his renegotiation strategy.

But I don't expect such a thing would happen. No substantive change will be allowed in Europe in such a way, and it's not worth Cameron's headache to appoint Clegg to such a post. Maybe that's why he's clinging on, he has nowhere somewhat respectable in station to go on to, but when he goes I imagine he will 'voluntarily' do so for the sake of the party, and will be allowed to fight in the 2015 election. If he loses the seat for the LDs that would be unfortunate but a sign of the need to never work with the Tories ever again which so many of the party's former supporters want, and if he managed to hold onto it, more the better.

Smarmeron said:

@Richard_Tyndall
We could have stripped all those who went to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil war of citizenship?

Under the law we could have done yes. Apparently it was considered. Thankfully we were rather more sensible than that.

I think the important distinction is whether or not those who have gone to fight pose a risk to the security of the country when they come home.

I have a considerable sympathy for many of those who have gone to fight Assad personally. I do not believe that all of them are either anti-British or a danger to our own security. But I do recognise that some will come back intent on doing harm to this country and so I can see that there should be some way of identifying those individuals and removing the threat they pose.

It is also worth remembering that those Americans who came to support and fight for the UK prior to the US entry into the war in WW2 were breaking the law, as were the oil men who came over to drill for oil for us at the start of the war when we desperately needed our own sources of oil.

GIN1138 said:

Quincel said:

So let me get this straight: ICM think that the voters of Sheffield Hallam have stuck with the LDs in local elections but hate Clegg so much they'd defect on mass in a general election. Unconvinced, this smells like a political assassination attempt.

Of course rationally, you are right, but these aren't rational times for the Lib-Dems and their supporters, so I'd say anything could happen up to and including the election, especially if Nick, Danny and the other leading members of the Lib-Dems keep acting like men who are about to be sent to gallows.

True, but in a fortnight when the furore has settled down and the Newark result is the new story (even when the LDs lose their deposit) the LD cabinet members will regain their composure. If the LDs lose Sheffield Hallam then they will - *even* assuming a far from UNS - be on less than 15 seats. It's not impossible, but it is hugely unlikely. Remember the LDs can and will pour resources to protect a seat as safe as Hallam.

peter_from_putney said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Daily mail front page -


http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98639/the_daily_mail_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html

Looks bloody dodgy doesn't he!

You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.

"Big beasts? We've already had Lembit calling on him to go, how much bigger can you get?

Heseltine on Newsnight A Tory-UKIP pact would be unacceptable and difficult to vote for

@Richard_Tyndall

It's the old adage, "one mans freedom fighter is anothers terrorist" The winning side often having more say than morality.

HurstLlama said:

Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

Pleased for you

HYUFD said:

Heseltine on Newsnight A Tory-UKIP pact would be unacceptable and difficult to vote for

Sounds like a good description of Heseltine himself.

HurstLlama said:

Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

Brilliant news, Mr Llama!

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Socrates said:

Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?

Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html

Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

You mean like in "Face/Off" (the Travolta/Cage movie)?

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Site Notice

1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning.

I'm looking forward to Rod's article. It's been fun pointing and laughing at the Lib-Dems today, but back to the serious business of pointing and laughing at Red's abject failure as LOTO tomorrow?

I've got a piece scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, that references The Life of Brian.

I'm disturbed how happy this has made me.

Even more happier than the time I slipped in some 2 Unlimited references in to a past thread.

HurstLlama said:

Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.

Scott_P said:

@thetimes: Tomorrow's front page, Scotland Edition: North Sea oil revenue to plummet by £1bn http://t.co/DJpdpXoUHX

The second story is funnier

I thought North Sea Oil production had been dropping for years?

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Socrates said:

Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?

Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html

Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes

Having spent 25 years on and off working on them I can confirm they are very much like a prison at times.

Neil said:

@RN

Well, my Sinn Fein to come 4th tip isnt looking so healthy any more! (But I maintain it was still a great value tip!)

What are your current positions?

Well, I followed you on the Sinn Fein to come 4th tip but I'm not worried about that, I'm sure I can rely on you to do the decent thing if it tanks! Other than that, I'm on 'Labour to be a coalition partner in first govt after next General Election' @ 3.5 and 'Labour over 11.5 seats' @ 1.83.

To be honest all three bets are for peanuts but I don't like losing!

GIN1138 said:

peter_from_putney said:

GIN1138 said:

Tykejohnno said:

Daily mail front page -


http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98639/the_daily_mail_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html

Looks bloody dodgy doesn't he!

You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.

"Big beasts? We've already had Lembit calling on him to go, how much bigger can you get?

He really should just stick to asteroids and trophy girlfriends that look way out of his league.

HurstLlama said:

Carola said:

HurstLlama said:

Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.

Thanks. The Co-op or the New Inn?

The eye hospital

@RN

Well, Irish Labour will be a control experiment in whether getting rid of an unpopular DPM can help a junior coalition partner! I can see them recovering to get 12 seats or more. It would take an unwieldy FG / Lab / Others (Greens? Independents?) to see them back into Government as it currently stands but there is plenty of time to go now.

Richard_Tyndall said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Socrates said:

Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?

Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html

Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes

Having spent 25 years on and off working on them I can confirm they are very much like a prison at times.

I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that

Richard_Tyndall said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Socrates said:

Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?

Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html

Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes

Having spent 25 years on and off working on them I can confirm they are very much like a prison at times.

I was a boarder at a public school as a boy, so can sympathize...

BobaFett said:

It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)

He might even call polling crossover for May and be ridiculed for it by certain Labour posters.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

isam said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

isam said:

foxinsoxuk said:

My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

isam said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Socrates said:

Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?

Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html

Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

You mean like in "Face/Off" (the Travolta/Cage movie)?

I have seen that but dont remember it at all bar they swapped faces!

The jail where Travolta's policeman character (with Cage's face!) pretended to be Cage seemed to be under an oil rig. He escaped and the exterior was definitely the outside of a rig!

Ah...

The more I see Lib Dem talking heads popping up saying that somehow its ok because they are only doing badly because they were the party of "in", the more it sounds like they are blaming doing badly on their policies being unpopular...

isnt that the most ridiculous thing ever?

Neil said:

Smarmeron said:

@isam

I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

Except the Lib Dems were trying to use this positioning to boost their own flagging position. How did that work out for them?

I think we've been declaring ourselves a pro-european party for quite a while Neil, 'Party of In' was just the latest slogan.

@Ninoinoz

Or even those in Britain who openly supported it? Laws are like that, "actual justice" is sometimes poorly served.
(and no, they should not have had citizenship removed either)

This isn't news to me, there was a constituency poll for Sheffield Hallam in Oct of 2010 with results, LD 33, LAB 31, CON 28.

Neil said:

corporeal said:

Neil said:

Smarmeron said:

@isam

I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

Except the Lib Dems were trying to use this positioning to boost their own flagging position. How did that work out for them?

I think we've been declaring ourselves a pro-european party for quite a while Neil, 'Party of In' was just the latest slogan.

My point was that far from suffering electorally for pro EU principles (if that's what they are now suggesting as per isam's post) the Lib Dems were actually hoping to benefit from this positioning as it seems the EU is far more popular these days than they are. That didnt work out quite as Clegg's team hoped.

It was more The Charge of the Light in the Head Brigade than The Charge of the Light Brigade.

Surely we are not advocating that our politicians keep quiet about their beliefs?
Oh that's right, it's how you get elected!

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that

Currently in a small, windowless room in the austere Iron Horse Hotel in Amsterdam - here for a three-day conference and trying to avoid spend donors' money unnecessarily. I don't really need a window, but it does actually seem a little like a cell in a rather enlightened prison. For 3 days it'll be fine, but being locked up here for ten years might be a bit trying.

Amsterdam is well noted for things to do, if you're experiencing cabin fever.

Some very good cafes.

Well well well. I feel I'm due a gloat. Admittedly nothing has happened yet but every time I've tried to raise the 'Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam' thing all I've had is ridicule lead it must be said on most occasions by TSE himself! This does all seem a little odd. Who's the insider at ICM funding the poll? They're a very reputable organisation but if it was a private poll not meant to be published would be so rigorous or perhaps just be happy with the money. There's no reputation to worry about if it's supposed to be private.

Anyway at least my favourite topic is back on the agenda.

@TheScreamingEagles

"Some very good cafes."

Strange that certain states in the country that pushed drug prohibition are now legalizing it?
Also, one might have thought they would have learned a lesson when they prohibited alchohol?

As a side note, I think history will be kinder to Clegg than the present day. Similar to Ramsay Macdonald for example (although Clegg's not on his level, and I do have a lot of admiration for Macdonald) a similar kind of thing.

BobaFett said:

Interesting analysis on the other channel, looking at the argument that Labour only limped through last night because of London. The argument works both ways, it would seem.

Here are the results last night without the South East Region:

LAB 27.26%
UKP 26.69%
CON 22.72%
GRN 7.66%
LIB 6.67%

Interesting that Labour has few targets in the SE...

I wonder if the night would have seemed different if the London results had been published through the night rather than waiting for Tower Hamlets, so we didn't have Lab and Con neck and neck for so long.

@isam

The real question is, how many do we subtract for the "What the hell, it is only the Euros" voters?
I am being serious, there were a few on here who did it.
There is certainly a greater degree of "stickability" than in the past, but to what extent?