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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam and finishing third behind the Tories!
The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27573376
Can't we just strip them of passports so they don't come back?
I wonder, do the left wing people that supported letting in huge numbers from poor, unstable, reactionary part of the world ever stop and consider whether they were wrong when they see this stuff?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html
Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?
So, so Sorry!!!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo
Mr. Socrates, it'd be comical if it weren't so serious.
On-topic: I can't see Clegg losing.
LD 9,557 (37.03%)
Lab 6,217 (24.09%)
UKIP 3,962 (15.35%)
Green 2,976 (11.53%)
Con 2,395 (9.28%)
Ind 549 (2.13%)
TUSC 152 (0.59%)
A bit misleading because the Tories didn't contest 2 of the 5 wards, maybe to make life easier for the LDs. It worked in Stannington but in Crookes they lost to Labour.
I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.
But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. Time to stop being such a bunch of wet lettuces and boot him out tonight. Get in Ashdown as a caretaker, say lessons have been learned and hope to avoid wipe out next year.
Their only real hope of a revival in the medium term is if dopey Ed gets in and makes a complete horlicks of everything which let's be honest even his own supporters expect him to do.
Do we get a YouGov tonight or is it on holiday with a hangover from its prediction success?
1) The personal ability of the Home Secretary to stop this kind of thing happening from time to time is probably not very high.
2) If you have a big, expensive security system like a network of prisons and it _never_ gets breached, you're probably spending too much securing it, and you should really be putting some of the money you're spending on it somewhere else, like catching more criminals in the first place.
Hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.
Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.
LD 26,534 (52.45%)
Con 11,228 (22.19%)
Lab 7,885 (15.59%)
Green 3,359 (6.64%)
UKIP 525 (1.04%)
Others 1,058 (2.09%)
Changes in 2014 compared to 2010:
LD -15.42%
Lab +8.50%
Con -12.91%
Green +4.89%
UKIP +14.31%
However third party leaks do not count.
Hague and Howard for example never had a shot because of timing.
Attlee doesn't exactly have a charismatic reputation, but defeated Churchill just after WWII (would anyone have predicted that a year out?). Kinnock was an excellent speaker (whatever you think of his politics, and I disagree with it on many points, his "I warn you not to" speech is superb work).
Had John Smith (what was he like?) not died he would have been PM and who knows what happens with Blair and Brown.
A few weeks ago, he wanted prisons to be listed from 1 to 6. With 1 being the harshest, and 6 being the holiday camp ones (I think he meant open prisons)
I had to break it to him, that they are already categorised in a similar way, A to D
But whoever is behind the shenanigans seems to be reasonably well organized and prepared to spend enough money on them to cover the cost of an ICM poll...
That said, didn't Mike get populus to publish some internal Tory polling in 2007?
For me I've long felt it'd be best if Clegg exited early 2015 with the party withdrawing from government at the same time. Leaving a Conservative minority government in for a little bit, then election campaign.
Private polling is private, if the commissioning party puts something into the public domain then the full tables/methodology relating to what's published (i.e. if you do a lot of questions and the client only publishes the results to one you only publish methodology on that one) should be released within two working days.
In any case, if the losses the LDs have suffered these past 4 years are not the time for a civil war when the leader will not stand down, when is the time?
So they could say this
The polls undertaken in April and May are of all respondents expressing an intention to vote and are turnout weighted. It does not include some adjustments ICM uses for national polls. The polls also question the value of a personal-vote showing. Although Munt, Swales and Huppert have positive ratings for a good job by their constituents, fewer than half recognise them.
He did have the advantage of leading in a less media driven world. His eve of poll message in 1950 is an all time classic!
Socrates, prison escapes and prisoner absconds are detailed in the Prison Performance Digest, half way down this page
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prison-and-probation-trusts-performance-statistics-201213
From the data, absconding from prisons is down by 25% between 2009/10 and 2012/13.
My aunt was very close to John. He is a genuinely nice man, something that is all too rare in politics. He's humble and unassuming, and that came across to the voters with the soapbox tour. Ultimately, they may have regarded him as boring, but he was seen a decent and capable & they gave him the benefit of the doubt.
People say that EdM is nice on a personal level (I've never met him), but he comes across as a bit of a nerd. While his ideas could be good, he seems to be too enthused by the detail: PMs need to be big picture guys - Ed is a details man. I suspect that the voters will make that judgement on the day - do they want Ed facing off to Putin making the big calls for the country?
Only it's no UKIP that is going under, but that ancient primitive life form the L/Dems who by failing to adapt, have outlived their usefulness.
So someone commissioning four of them probably spent 80 grand to do so.....
Leeds local elections, popular votes:
Lab 71,602 (38.18%)
Con 39,953 (21.31%)
UKIP 32,625 (17.40%)
LD 18,867 (10.06%)
Green 17,203 (9.17%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +2.51
Con -5.27%
UKIP +16.54%
LD -14.49%
Green +6.74
BNP -6.79% (didn't stand this time)
@LibDemPress: On Thursday, @LibDems secured 38.7% of the vote across Sheffield Hallam. Labour managed 23.6% whilst the Tories came fifth with just 10.7%
2.6. Organisations conducting privately commissioned surveys have the right to maintain the confidentiality of survey findings. However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public by the organisation [its employees or agents] that commissioned the survey, such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings.
The client and survey organisation may keep other findings (that have not been published) confidential except where such findings are relevant to the topics covered in questions that have entered the public domain or where the question order is relevant to the published results. The research organisation must place other relevant data on its web site within 2 working days of the original release of the results into the public domain in order to place such information into their proper context. If other findings cast doubt on those that have been published then the agency must also release those findings
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects-and-rules/
I think it unlikely that Clegg will be defeated.
As to if Clegg is insisting on going through to GE2015. Then there's a problem. It has to be done cleanly.
It's a particularly useful comparison because the 2010 general election was held on the same day as the 2010 locals.
Ed Miliband has shown the spine that's needed to face Putin already.Murdoch,the bankers and energy giants for starters know it.It's not about whether he can eat a bacon roll.
I mailed Mike over the guest article. He refers me back to you, as he's on holiday.
Btw, the datawrapper thingy is too unsophisticated for my charts. It'll have to be JPG or PNG as in the old days.
What's your email?
But it's been said a lot in the last couple of years in Lib Dem circles, we've been through worse and built ourselves back up, people have been predicting our death for decades and never been right yet.
It doesn't have to be realistic. I've been posting a little on LibDemVoice and I'd say its about 40% flaming torches, 40% Clegg is Lord, 20% too terrified for rational thought. This might tip them over the edge.
Popcorn!
The results as per http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ were:
YouGov ...........1.4%
ICM ................ 2.0%
Opinium ........ 2.1%
TNS ............... 2.2%
ComRes ........ 2.6%
Survation ...... 2.6%
ComRes never really stood a chance after understating support for the blues by a hefty 3.9% - they really don't like the Tories do they?
It will be interesting to see how many PBers outperformed the professional pollsters in the chase for Ladbrokes' free £50 bet competition - quite a few would be my guess. Maybe Shadsy should recruit the top performers in helping him to frame the odds for the Magic Sign's political markets.
Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?
Expenses to fund.....the campaign? or was that champagne?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
Or is it because these people are not white, not Christian, not like us and that due to their different religious beliefs that they are a danger to all?
What about the young UK Jews who volunteer to do military service in Israel? Should they too be stripped of UK citizenship?
Should your argument be that anyone who goes overseas to fight and possibly die mean that they will be stripped of their passports. Makes a mockery of all those UK military of all religions who died in the Falklands, 2 Iraq wars and Afghanistan let alone all those who fought in the area from the Crusades to the present day.
Remember also that the UK has a lot of history in the middle East, a lot of which is not pleasant or nice. And because of that history and what could be called folk memories there is still a lot of antipathy to the UK and that by allowing petty vindictiveness of the sort quoted, we could be adding to the list of mistrust.
My own feeling is that these people are putting their untrained lives on the line for something they believe in, some will die (unfortunately that will happen), some will enjoy the adventure, some may become radicalised, and some may be so sickened by the madness of war that they will become pacifists. (Makes our xbox young look like effete wimps.)
Remember that it was UK and US meddling in the area that started the whole thing off. Russia got involved as well to "protect" their own interests. The problem really being all our governments, of all colours, having a severe lack of cojones to actually finish the job that they start and the brains to work out a viable end game. Syria being a prime example, let alone Iraq and Afghanistan.
Maybe this so called problem of radicalised UK moslem youths is the unintended byproduct of our own making?
Would his boss give him permission? David would not be keen on an election contest if it could be avoided?
Have we heard from Mark Senior, BTW?
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/betting-markets-beat-pollsters-in-euro-elections/
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98639/the_daily_mail_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html
Anyway, Farage is in Newark this coming weekend.
Tomorrow's Times front page: Farage sets his sights on Labour heartlands http://polho.me/1gvPT1e
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98640/the_times_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html
Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.
Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.
If you believe this story which I don't, those nice people at Wm Hills are offering odds of 7/1 against Labour winning this seat.
We appreciate your efforts but you are only making us nostalgic for Adrian Harper.