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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam

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  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
    Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.
    Which would be the final insult. There is an honourable way for Clegg to resign, and as you suggest it seems the door is shut. Could be reopened though. As a Labourite its in our short term interest for Clegg tocling to his red boxes to the bitter end, I just can't believe that the party will let him.

    Cameron isn't going to appoint a Europhile as commissioner.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,071
    Tim_B said:


    Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage.

    How many jobs are created by raising the minimum wage?
    Quite. And while we're about this particular post, how does Ed M propose to keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage? Mathematically, the only way to do this is to make the minimum wage the maximum wage.


  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B

    "How many jobs are created by raising the minimum wage?"

    Very true, keep the tax payer subsidizing their wages with tax credits.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Edin_Rokz said:


    It makes me wonder that white British ex-service men going to fight in wars overseas does not bring the same type of judgement here. What about those who join the French and Spanish foreign legions, are they too to be stripped of their UK nationality? What about the Gurkhas and Sikhs in the British army?

    Or is it because these people are not white, not Christian, not like us and that due to their different religious beliefs that they are a danger to all?

    What about the young UK Jews who volunteer to do military service in Israel? Should they too be stripped of UK citizenship?

    Should your argument be that anyone who goes overseas to fight and possibly die mean that they will be stripped of their passports. Makes a mockery of all those UK military of all religions who died in the Falklands, 2 Iraq wars and Afghanistan let alone all those who fought in the area from the Crusades to the present day.

    Remember also that the UK has a lot of history in the middle East, a lot of which is not pleasant or nice. And because of that history and what could be called folk memories there is still a lot of antipathy to the UK and that by allowing petty vindictiveness of the sort quoted, we could be adding to the list of mistrust.

    My own feeling is that these people are putting their untrained lives on the line for something they believe in, some will die (unfortunately that will happen), some will enjoy the adventure, some may become radicalised, and some may be so sickened by the madness of war that they will become pacifists. (Makes our xbox young look like effete wimps.)

    Remember that it was UK and US meddling in the area that started the whole thing off. Russia got involved as well to "protect" their own interests. The problem really being all our governments, of all colours, having a severe lack of cojones to actually finish the job that they start and the brains to work out a viable end game. Syria being a prime example, let alone Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Maybe this so called problem of radicalised UK moslem youths is the unintended byproduct of our own making?

    All the examples you list - serving in the French or Spanish foreign legions, volunteering for the Israeli army, Gurkhas and Sikhs in the British army - are examples of people going to serve with regular armies of friendly nations. The same does not apply to jihadists going to serve in Syria.

    Serving as a mercenary means one is not covered by the Geneva convention and can be tried as a common criminal by a court according to local laws. It is still illegal in the UK under the Foreign Enlistment Act of 1870 for anyone to serve with the armed forces of a state that is at war with a state that is at peace with Britain.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    The reason that Clegg will lose is clear. He did not stand up for Sheffield Forgemasters, despite the sage advice of Ed Miliband.

    Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.

    Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.

    Brilliant new spoof account. Top work. Keep it up.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    To be fair to my comrade ProudtobeLabour he has a point about Forgemasters. In Sheffield it was seen as a major betrayal by the LibDems. Paul Scrivens the then LibDem council leader came out in support of Clegg, then lost his seat, then his colleagues lost their seats, and now the LibDems finished, what, sixth in the city in the Euros?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
    Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.
    Which would be the final insult. There is an honourable way for Clegg to resign, and as you suggest it seems the door is shut. Could be reopened though. As a Labourite its in our short term interest for Clegg tocling to his red boxes to the bitter end, I just can't believe that the party will let him.

    Cameron isn't going to appoint a Europhile as commissioner.
    Mere weeks after UKIP win a national election, too.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    @Richard_Nabavi

    An unpopular Deputy Prime Minister falling on his sword after the junior coalition partner is battered in the polls? This seems pretty normal to me! ;)

    That and a series of pretty young Sinn Fein candidates who looked like they've never murdered an innocent child in their lives have polled very well too.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 2014
    How convenient its leaked just about now.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Tyndall
    We could have stripped all those who went to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil war of citizenship?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.
    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Neil - Do I need to adjust any betting positions?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Neil said:

    @Richard_Nabavi

    That and a series of pretty young Sinn Fein candidates who looked like they've never murdered an innocent child in their lives have polled very well too.

    An interesting strategy for choosing candidates, but effective I guess.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014

    The reason that Clegg will lose is clear. He did not stand up for Sheffield Forgemasters, despite the sage advice of Ed Miliband.

    Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.

    Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.

    There's so much astroturf there, we could play 50 different games of football simultaneously on you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    The reason that Clegg will lose is clear. He did not stand up for Sheffield Forgemasters, despite the sage advice of Ed Miliband.

    Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.

    Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.

    I reckon UKIP/Conservative more likely to win Hallam than Labour. And they aren't going to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    "the sage advice of Ed Miliband."

    Having a good laugh about this particular phrase.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Bring back Adrian Harper and ColinW and his mum.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    @Neil - What is going on in Ireland??

    Total 11 seats - so far, 1 seat each for FF, FG and 2 for SF, plus 2 Independents. So far.
  • GIN1138 said:
    You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Quincel said:

    So let me get this straight: ICM think that the voters of Sheffield Hallam have stuck with the LDs in local elections but hate Clegg so much they'd defect on mass in a general election. Unconvinced, this smells like a political assassination attempt.

    Of course rationally, you are right, but these aren't rational times for the Lib-Dems and their supporters, so I'd say anything could happen up to and including the election, especially if Nick, Danny and the other leading members of the Lib-Dems keep acting like men who are about to be sent to gallows.



  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    That's fantastic news.


    Hurumph. Excuse me? Newark is a great place and certainly beats some Belgian backwater as a destination of choice.

    I've never had the pleasure of visiting Newark, but I would take a hell of lot of persuading that the restaurants, ballet and opera beat those of Brussels.
    Newark is a pretty market town where it well,might be nice to live, but...er...Richard N is right. Brussels is quite beautiful in some parts too (though overall also scruffier than Newark, like most big cities).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Having a leader in the Lords has its advantages. It frees up all the LDs to campaign their own seats and keeps safe distance from the government.
    GIN1138 said:

    Could Paddy lead the Lib-Dems from the Lords? What the Lib's need now is someone who is strong and determined, not someone who's falling apart emotionally and physically before the electorates eye's - Bring Back Paddy!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Quincel said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
    Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.
    Which would be the final insult. There is an honourable way for Clegg to resign, and as you suggest it seems the door is shut. Could be reopened though. As a Labourite its in our short term interest for Clegg tocling to his red boxes to the bitter end, I just can't believe that the party will let him.

    Cameron isn't going to appoint a Europhile as commissioner.
    Mere weeks after UKIP win a national election, too.
    I suppose if he waits a few months and has some moer rumblings in his favour from Europe to show (no guarantee, that) he could spin such an appointment as being part of that process, in that a Europhile is appointed to reassure the bureucrats even as he, Cameron, gets some traction on his renegotiation strategy.

    But I don't expect such a thing would happen. No substantive change will be allowed in Europe in such a way, and it's not worth Cameron's headache to appoint Clegg to such a post. Maybe that's why he's clinging on, he has nowhere somewhat respectable in station to go on to, but when he goes I imagine he will 'voluntarily' do so for the sake of the party, and will be allowed to fight in the 2015 election. If he loses the seat for the LDs that would be unfortunate but a sign of the need to never work with the Tories ever again which so many of the party's former supporters want, and if he managed to hold onto it, more the better.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Tyndall
    We could have stripped all those who went to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil war of citizenship?

    Under the law we could have done yes. Apparently it was considered. Thankfully we were rather more sensible than that.

    I think the important distinction is whether or not those who have gone to fight pose a risk to the security of the country when they come home.

    I have a considerable sympathy for many of those who have gone to fight Assad personally. I do not believe that all of them are either anti-British or a danger to our own security. But I do recognise that some will come back intent on doing harm to this country and so I can see that there should be some way of identifying those individuals and removing the threat they pose.

    It is also worth remembering that those Americans who came to support and fight for the UK prior to the US entry into the war in WW2 were breaking the law, as were the oil men who came over to drill for oil for us at the start of the war when we desperately needed our own sources of oil.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    That's fantastic news.


    Hurumph. Excuse me? Newark is a great place and certainly beats some Belgian backwater as a destination of choice.

    I've never had the pleasure of visiting Newark, but I would take a hell of lot of persuading that the restaurants, ballet and opera beat those of Brussels.
    Newark is a pretty market town where it well,might be nice to live, but...er...Richard N is right. Brussels is quite beautiful in some parts too (though overall also scruffier than Newark, like most big cities).
    Bah!! You are not welcome any more Dr Palmer :-)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    GIN1138 said:

    Quincel said:

    So let me get this straight: ICM think that the voters of Sheffield Hallam have stuck with the LDs in local elections but hate Clegg so much they'd defect on mass in a general election. Unconvinced, this smells like a political assassination attempt.

    Of course rationally, you are right, but these aren't rational times for the Lib-Dems and their supporters, so I'd say anything could happen up to and including the election, especially if Nick, Danny and the other leading members of the Lib-Dems keep acting like men who are about to be sent to gallows.



    True, but in a fortnight when the furore has settled down and the Newark result is the new story (even when the LDs lose their deposit) the LD cabinet members will regain their composure. If the LDs lose Sheffield Hallam then they will - *even* assuming a far from UNS - be on less than 15 seats. It's not impossible, but it is hugely unlikely. Remember the LDs can and will pour resources to protect a seat as safe as Hallam.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2014
    @RN

    Well, my Sinn Fein to come 4th tip isnt looking so healthy any more! (But I maintain it was still a great value tip!)

    What are your current positions? These results reflect the current polling so arent much of a surprise. The GE is almost certainly going to be held at the last possible moment - right into 2016. If the economy continues on its current course then FG should recover and must be favourites to end up as largest party. The problem is whether Labour (presumably under Joan Burton) will benefit as well. Right now it doesnt look like a continued FG / Labour coalition can get the numbers. The problem is which combination can with all the independents that are going to get in. The maths would suggest right now that only FG / FF or a coalition involving SF could get the numbers and either of those would be groundbreaking (and only 100 years after 1916).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    GIN1138 said:
    You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.
    "Big beasts? We've already had Lembit calling on him to go, how much bigger can you get?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Huzzah
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Heseltine on Newsnight A Tory-UKIP pact would be unacceptable and difficult to vote for
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.

    Let me guess... Con Majority nailed on ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Tyndall

    It's the old adage, "one mans freedom fighter is anothers terrorist" The winning side often having more say than morality.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rowandavies: If that poll is oakeshott's, does this mean that personal polling is the new 'owning a newspaper' for politically ambitious millionaires?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Pleased for you
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited May 2014

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning.

    I'm looking forward to Rod's article. It's been fun pointing and laughing at the Lib-Dems today, but back to the serious business of pointing and laughing at Red's abject failure as LOTO tomorrow?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    HYUFD said:

    Heseltine on Newsnight A Tory-UKIP pact would be unacceptable and difficult to vote for

    Sounds like a good description of Heseltine himself.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Brilliant news, Mr Llama!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    @HurstLlama

    I didn't know you'd been ill, but sounds like great news. Congrats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    You mean like in "Face/Off" (the Travolta/Cage movie)?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thetimes: Tomorrow's front page, Scotland Edition: North Sea oil revenue to plummet by £1bn http://t.co/DJpdpXoUHX

    The second story is funnier
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    GIN1138 said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning.

    I'm looking forward to Rod's article. It's been fun pointing and laughing at the Lib-Dems today, but back to the serious business of pointing and laughing at Red's abject failure as LOTO tomorrow?
    I've got a piece scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, that references The Life of Brian.

    I'm disturbed how happy this has made me.

    Even more happier than the time I slipped in some 2 Unlimited references in to a past thread.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Great news Hurst - hope you enjoyed both the pint and the taste of freedom ;)

    On topic - As many will note, I have long being saying that the Liberals should cut and run, as they have nothing left to lose. Pugh et al are clearly right when they say that the biggest risk for the Libs is doing nothing at all. I doubt it will bring many Red Liberals back, but a switch might help encourage the all important Lab tactical vote where Labour cannot win.

    Yet it is key for Labour that Clegg stays. Labour have such a lock on the Red Liberals they won't want to risk a change even if their best guess is that the Red Liberals remain rouged under a new Lib leader.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie · 3 mins
    Michael Heseltine is carrying on with the UKIP are racists meme. Will him and Ken Clarke please shut up. They're not helping #newsnight

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Scott_P said:

    @thetimes: Tomorrow's front page, Scotland Edition: North Sea oil revenue to plummet by £1bn http://t.co/DJpdpXoUHX

    The second story is funnier

    I thought North Sea Oil production had been dropping for years?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    GIN1138 said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning.

    I'm looking forward to Rod's article. It's been fun pointing and laughing at the Lib-Dems today, but back to the serious business of pointing and laughing at Red's abject failure as LOTO tomorrow?
    I've got a piece scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, that references The Life of Brian.

    I'm disturbed how happy this has made me.

    Even more happier than the time I slipped in some 2 Unlimited references in to a past thread.
    Sounds fun.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes
    Having spent 25 years on and off working on them I can confirm they are very much like a prison at times.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Pulpstar said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.

    Let me guess... Con Majority nailed on ?
    It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

    Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    GIN1138 said:



    GIN1138 said:
    You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.
    "Big beasts? We've already had Lembit calling on him to go, how much bigger can you get?

    Have you been reading the Cheeky Girls' autobiography?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2014
    Carola said:

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.
    Thanks. The Co-op or the New Inn or the Eye Hospital?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Neil said:

    @RN

    Well, my Sinn Fein to come 4th tip isnt looking so healthy any more! (But I maintain it was still a great value tip!)

    What are your current positions?

    Well, I followed you on the Sinn Fein to come 4th tip but I'm not worried about that, I'm sure I can rely on you to do the decent thing if it tanks! Other than that, I'm on 'Labour to be a coalition partner in first govt after next General Election' @ 3.5 and 'Labour over 11.5 seats' @ 1.83.

    To be honest all three bets are for peanuts but I don't like losing!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.

    Let me guess... Con Majority nailed on ?
    It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

    Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)
    Rod called the last general election spot on though. I had many run-in's with him when Conservatives were getting 20% poll leads and he kept insisiting it'd be a hung parliament.

    You take on Rod From Crosby at your peril.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    GIN1138 said:



    GIN1138 said:
    You get the impression that all it would take is for one of the big beasts to break ranks and he'd be toast. It's interesting to note that over the past 24 hrs, Ladbrokes have halved the odds against him not being LibDem leader at the next GE from 5/1 to 5/2.
    "Big beasts? We've already had Lembit calling on him to go, how much bigger can you get?

    He really should just stick to asteroids and trophy girlfriends that look way out of his league.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP really needed to get more than 30% to be guaranteed seats at the next general election IMO. With 27.5% they could fall back to 15% and win zero seats.

    They may have got 30% with AIFE and UK EPP votes and possibly more importantly the spoiled ballots from people voting for AIFE and then crossing it out and voting for Ukip.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukip-lost-tens-of-thousands-of-voters-to-party-with-similar

    "Jack Duffin, chairman of UKIP’s youth wing, claimed 300 ballots were spoilt in the London borough of Hillingdon by voters who mistakenly voted for An Independence From Europe, scribbled it out, then tried to vote again for UKIP."

    Although one thing about that is it might have made people more careful for next time.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.
    Thanks. The Co-op or the New Inn?
    The eye hospital :)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Tyndall
    We could have stripped all those who went to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil war of citizenship?

    Under the law we could have done yes. Apparently it was considered. Thankfully we were rather more sensible than that.

    I think the important distinction is whether or not those who have gone to fight pose a risk to the security of the country when they come home.

    I have a considerable sympathy for many of those who have gone to fight Assad personally. I do not believe that all of them are either anti-British or a danger to our own security. But I do recognise that some will come back intent on doing harm to this country and so I can see that there should be some way of identifying those individuals and removing the threat they pose.

    It is also worth remembering that those Americans who came to support and fight for the UK prior to the US entry into the war in WW2 were breaking the law, as were the oil men who came over to drill for oil for us at the start of the war when we desperately needed our own sources of oil.
    Not to mention the many Irish soldiers who left the Irish army to sign up. Were only pardoned a few years back.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @RN

    Well, Irish Labour will be a control experiment in whether getting rid of an unpopular DPM can help a junior coalition partner! I can see them recovering to get 12 seats or more. It would take an unwieldy FG / Lab / Others (Greens? Independents?) to see them back into Government as it currently stands but there is plenty of time to go now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    You mean like in "Face/Off" (the Travolta/Cage movie)?
    I have seen that but dont remember it at all bar they swapped faces!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes
    Having spent 25 years on and off working on them I can confirm they are very much like a prison at times.
    I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    GIN1138 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.

    Let me guess... Con Majority nailed on ?
    It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

    Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)
    Rod called the last general election spot on though. I had many run-in's with him when Conservatives were getting 20% poll leads and he kept insisiting it'd be a hung parliament.

    You take on Rod From Crosby at your peril.
    I realise that. He has a good track record. But he isn't infallible. As last night showed.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    Im not a hardliner, I come across here worse than I am in real life, (@MaxPB thought I was about 70 from my online persona! ) but there should be some kind of extra punishment beyond being locked up for the very worst crimes
    Having spent 25 years on and off working on them I can confirm they are very much like a prison at times.
    I was a boarder at a public school as a boy, so can sympathize...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Neil - I shall maintain a Cleggite fortitude in the face of superficially adverse news.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    BobaFett said:


    It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

    Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)

    He might even call polling crossover for May and be ridiculed for it by certain Labour posters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    isam said:

    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    You mean like in "Face/Off" (the Travolta/Cage movie)?
    I have seen that but dont remember it at all bar they swapped faces!
    The jail where Travolta's policeman character (with Cage's face!) pretended to be Cage seemed to be under an oil rig. He escaped and the exterior was definitely the outside of a rig!
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    corporeal said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Tyndall
    We could have stripped all those who went to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil war of citizenship?

    Under the law we could have done yes. Apparently it was considered. Thankfully we were rather more sensible than that.

    I think the important distinction is whether or not those who have gone to fight pose a risk to the security of the country when they come home.

    I have a considerable sympathy for many of those who have gone to fight Assad personally. I do not believe that all of them are either anti-British or a danger to our own security. But I do recognise that some will come back intent on doing harm to this country and so I can see that there should be some way of identifying those individuals and removing the threat they pose.

    It is also worth remembering that those Americans who came to support and fight for the UK prior to the US entry into the war in WW2 were breaking the law, as were the oil men who came over to drill for oil for us at the start of the war when we desperately needed our own sources of oil.
    Not to mention the many Irish soldiers who left the Irish army to sign up. Were only pardoned a few years back.
    I believe they had their children taken away from them.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.
    Thanks. The Co-op or the New Inn?
    The eye hospital :)
    Then your friend must be a very nice person. They all are down there and they all, from receptionist to consultant, know their job. The fabric of the building is somewhat outdated but kit, the efficiency of the organisation and the staff cannot be faulted. I feel very lucky to have been treated there.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    My Idea for a Falkland Islands penal colony is better. The water is rather too cold for crocodiles, but the leopard seals can be an adequate substitute.

    Also suitable for those convicted of treason by aiding and befriending Her Majesties enemies, such as wannabee Jihadis.

    isam said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
    Convert some disused oil rig into a prison for thw worst of the worst

    You mean like in "Face/Off" (the Travolta/Cage movie)?
    I have seen that but dont remember it at all bar they swapped faces!
    The jail where Travolta's policeman character (with Cage's face!) pretended to be Cage seemed to be under an oil rig. He escaped and the exterior was definitely the outside of a rig!
    Ah...


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newcastle upon Tyne local elections, popular votes:

    Lab 30,814 (45.03%)
    LD 14,831 (21.67%)
    UKIP 9,231 (13.49%)
    Con 6,774 (9.90%)
    Green 2,055 (3.00%)
    Ind 1,492 (2.18%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +6.18%
    LD -16.56%
    UKIP +13.18%
    Con -4.57%
    Green +0.79%
    Ind +1.90%
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The more I see Lib Dem talking heads popping up saying that somehow its ok because they are only doing badly because they were the party of "in", the more it sounds like they are blaming doing badly on their policies being unpopular...

    isnt that the most ridiculous thing ever?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Tyndall
    We could have stripped all those who went to fight fascism in the Spanish Civil war of citizenship?

    What about those who fought FOR fascism in the Spanish Civil War? Like poor Mary MacGregor, for instance.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

    Except the Lib Dems were trying to use this positioning to boost their own flagging position. How did that work out for them?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

    Except the Lib Dems were trying to use this positioning to boost their own flagging position. How did that work out for them?
    I think we've been declaring ourselves a pro-european party for quite a while Neil, 'Party of In' was just the latest slogan.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:

    Carola said:

    Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.

    What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.

    Good to hear HL. And my friend works there, as it happens.
    Thanks. The Co-op or the New Inn?
    The eye hospital :)
    Then your friend must be a very nice person. They all are down there and they all, from receptionist to consultant, know their job. The fabric of the building is somewhat outdated but kit, the efficiency of the organisation and the staff cannot be faulted. I feel very lucky to have been treated there.
    Yep that's the impression I get from her. She's one of my oldest friends so I guess I think she's nice enough! *No nonsense* at work I imagine.

    Apparently the new development prog is going to start soon (the only pre election literature I got was from Simon Kirby trumpeting the *new* hospital), and the eye hospital will be rebuilt elsewhere on site. I live nearby.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Ninoinoz

    Or even those in Britain who openly supported it? Laws are like that, "actual justice" is sometimes poorly served.
    (and no, they should not have had citizenship removed either)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Ireland results:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/elections/european-elections/midlands-north-west

    Dublin (three seats):

    1 Sinn Fein
    1 Independent
    1 Fine Gael

    Ireland South (four seats):

    1 Fianna Fail
    1 SF
    (two seats pending)

    Ireland Midlands-Northwest (four seats):

    1 Ind
    (three seats pending)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This isn't news to me, there was a constituency poll for Sheffield Hallam in Oct of 2010 with results, LD 33, LAB 31, CON 28.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    corporeal said:

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

    Except the Lib Dems were trying to use this positioning to boost their own flagging position. How did that work out for them?
    I think we've been declaring ourselves a pro-european party for quite a while Neil, 'Party of In' was just the latest slogan.
    My point was that far from suffering electorally for pro EU principles (if that's what they are now suggesting as per isam's post) the Lib Dems were actually hoping to benefit from this positioning as it seems the EU is far more popular these days than they are. That didnt work out quite as Clegg's team hoped.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Neil said:

    corporeal said:

    Neil said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

    Except the Lib Dems were trying to use this positioning to boost their own flagging position. How did that work out for them?
    I think we've been declaring ourselves a pro-european party for quite a while Neil, 'Party of In' was just the latest slogan.
    My point was that far from suffering electorally for pro EU principles (if that's what they are now suggesting as per isam's post) the Lib Dems were actually hoping to benefit from this positioning as it seems the EU is far more popular these days than they are. That didnt work out quite as Clegg's team hoped.
    It was more The Charge of the Light in the Head Brigade than The Charge of the Light Brigade.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited May 2014
    Nick Clegg = The 7th Earl of Cardigan?

    Might make for a decent thread.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Surely we are not advocating that our politicians keep quiet about their beliefs?
    Oh that's right, it's how you get elected!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la politique
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    BobaFett said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.

    Let me guess... Con Majority nailed on ?
    It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

    Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)
    Rod called the last general election spot on though. I had many run-in's with him when Conservatives were getting 20% poll leads and he kept insisiting it'd be a hung parliament.

    You take on Rod From Crosby at your peril.
    I realise that. He has a good track record. But he isn't infallible. As last night showed.
    In-play UNS forecasting isn't infallible, especially in the early declarations and if it's close between two parties.

    But of course you knew that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    isam said:



    I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that

    Currently in a small, windowless room in the austere Iron Horse Hotel in Amsterdam - here for a three-day conference and trying to avoid spend donors' money unnecessarily. I don't really need a window, but it does actually seem a little like a cell in a rather enlightened prison. For 3 days it'll be fine, but being locked up here for ten years might be a bit trying.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    isam said:



    I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that

    Currently in a small, windowless room in the austere Iron Horse Hotel in Amsterdam - here for a three-day conference and trying to avoid spend donors' money unnecessarily. I don't really need a window, but it does actually seem a little like a cell in a rather enlightened prison. For 3 days it'll be fine, but being locked up here for ten years might be a bit trying.

    Amsterdam is well noted for things to do, if you're experiencing cabin fever.

    Some very good cafes.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

    I dont think that is ridiculous, I admire that.

    Just seems weird to counter the accusation of doing badly with an argument that its because no one agrees with us.. especially as opinion polls put staying in the EU ahead of leaving it

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Well well well. I feel I'm due a gloat. Admittedly nothing has happened yet but every time I've tried to raise the 'Clegg loses Sheffield Hallam' thing all I've had is ridicule lead it must be said on most occasions by TSE himself! This does all seem a little odd. Who's the insider at ICM funding the poll? They're a very reputable organisation but if it was a private poll not meant to be published would be so rigorous or perhaps just be happy with the money. There's no reputation to worry about if it's supposed to be private.

    Anyway at least my favourite topic is back on the agenda.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Interesting analysis on the other channel, looking at the argument that Labour only limped through last night because of London. The argument works both ways, it would seem.

    Here are the results last night without the South East Region:

    LAB 27.26%
    UKP 26.69%
    CON 22.72%
    GRN 7.66%
    LIB 6.67%

    Interesting that Labour has few targets in the SE...

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    "Some very good cafes."

    Strange that certain states in the country that pushed drug prohibition are now legalizing it?
    Also, one might have thought they would have learned a lesson when they prohibited alchohol?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    2010 locals, Sheffield Hallam:

    LD 26,534 (52.45%)
    Con 11,228 (22.19%)
    Lab 7,885 (15.59%)
    Green 3,359 (6.64%)
    UKIP 525 (1.04%)
    Others 1,058 (2.09%)

    Changes in 2014 compared to 2010:

    LD -15.42%
    Lab +8.50%
    Con -12.91%
    Green +4.89%
    UKIP +14.31%

    Yields

    LD 37.03
    LAB 24.09
    UKIP 15.35
    Green 11.53
    Con 9.28....


  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RodCrosby said:

    BobaFett said:

    GIN1138 said:

    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Site Notice

    1) PBers won't want to miss Rod Crosby's guest article that goes up in the morning

    2) If anyone wants to submit a guest article, message me via vanilla.

    Let me guess... Con Majority nailed on ?
    It will be "Ed is Crap", "Tories largest party nailed on".

    Which is good news, given that Rod forecast Labour coming third last night. The wise among us did our own maths instead, and collected. ;-)
    Rod called the last general election spot on though. I had many run-in's with him when Conservatives were getting 20% poll leads and he kept insisiting it'd be a hung parliament.

    You take on Rod From Crosby at your peril.
    I realise that. He has a good track record. But he isn't infallible. As last night showed.
    In-play UNS forecasting isn't infallible, especially in the early declarations and if it's close between two parties.

    But of course you knew that.
    No forecasting is infallible, but of course you knew that. You are often right, but you were wrong last night. Those who did our own arithmetic made money.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BobaFett said:

    Interesting analysis on the other channel, looking at the argument that Labour only limped through last night because of London. The argument works both ways, it would seem.

    Here are the results last night without the South East Region:

    LAB 27.26%
    UKP 26.69%
    CON 22.72%
    GRN 7.66%
    LIB 6.67%

    Interesting that Labour has few targets in the SE...

    remember to add 1% to UKIP for lost AIFE votes
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    As a side note, I think history will be kinder to Clegg than the present day. Similar to Ramsay Macdonald for example (although Clegg's not on his level, and I do have a lot of admiration for Macdonald) a similar kind of thing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:



    I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that

    Currently in a small, windowless room in the austere Iron Horse Hotel in Amsterdam - here for a three-day conference and trying to avoid spend donors' money unnecessarily. I don't really need a window, but it does actually seem a little like a cell in a rather enlightened prison. For 3 days it'll be fine, but being locked up here for ten years might be a bit trying.

    Youre not being punished for a serious crime though
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    BobaFett said:

    Interesting analysis on the other channel, looking at the argument that Labour only limped through last night because of London. The argument works both ways, it would seem.

    Here are the results last night without the South East Region:

    LAB 27.26%
    UKP 26.69%
    CON 22.72%
    GRN 7.66%
    LIB 6.67%

    Interesting that Labour has few targets in the SE...

    I wonder if the night would have seemed different if the London results had been published through the night rather than waiting for Tower Hamlets, so we didn't have Lab and Con neck and neck for so long.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    isam said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @isam

    I suppose "principles before party" does seem ridiculous these days.

    I dont think that is ridiculous, I admire that.

    Just seems weird to counter the accusation of doing badly with an argument that its because no one agrees with us.. especially as opinion polls put staying in the EU ahead of leaving it

    Perhaps they meant that no one agrees with them about being enthusiastic about being In, as the big two are of course for In, but with less obvious enthusiasm. But more likely you are right and they just chose to forget the EU In polling at that moment.

    Night all.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam

    The real question is, how many do we subtract for the "What the hell, it is only the Euros" voters?
    I am being serious, there were a few on here who did it.
    There is certainly a greater degree of "stickability" than in the past, but to what extent?
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