I look forward to reading Rod Crosby's article tomorrow.
Rod Crosby was the "Sage of Liverpool" at the last GE, correctly forecasting a Hung Parliament, well before anyone else here.
He was also pretty accurate at predicting the last POTUS election result, where he demonstrated a lack of love for Hilary Clinton.
IIRC, his comments about her were invariably misogynistic and usually referenced campanology and tintinabulation, while celebrating the mortal demise of an evil sorceress.
The real question is, how many do we subtract for the "What the hell, it is only the Euros" voters? I am being serious, there were a few on here who did it. There is certainly a greater degree of "stickability" than in the past, but to what extent?
Yeah but at the same time it's now clear there are concentrated clusters.
I look forward to reading Rod Crosby's article tomorrow.
Rod Crosby was the "Sage of Liverpool" at the last GE, correctly forecasting a Hung Parliament, well before anyone else here.
He was also pretty accurate at predicting the last POTUS election result, where he demonstrated a lack of love for Hilary Clinton.
IIRC, his comments about her were invariably misogynistic and usually referenced campanology and tintinabulation, while celebrating the mortal demise of an evil sorceress.
Interesting analysis on the other channel, looking at the argument that Labour only limped through last night because of London. The argument works both ways, it would seem.
Here are the results last night without the South East Region:
LAB 27.26% UKP 26.69% CON 22.72% GRN 7.66% LIB 6.67%
Interesting that Labour has few targets in the SE...
I wonder if the night would have seemed different if the London results had been published through the night rather than waiting for Tower Hamlets, so we didn't have Lab and Con neck and neck for so long.
The problem was the innumerate pundits. Nick Robinson needs to take remedial lessons in maths.
It was obvious to anyone with a half-decent GCSE that Lab would leapfrog the Tories once Scotland and London came in.
The real question is, how many do we subtract for the "What the hell, it is only the Euros" voters? I am being serious, there were a few on here who did it. There is certainly a greater degree of "stickability" than in the past, but to what extent?
I think that is exactly the question to be asking.
For a number of reasons (not least the awful list system) we have no sense of connection to our MEPs. There is a sense that you can vote anyway you like because it doesn't matter. Nothing significant in the life of the voter will be impacted by how they vote in a Euro poll
Now this is wrong - but there is a huge disconnect between our MEPs and the electorates they serve. That is something that we need to address before people will start to vote in a more rational fashion at the Euros.
We have seen major protest votes at the Euros before (1989 being the most extreme example) and it had no lasting impact on the domestic political scene.
I suspect the UKIP vote is more sticky than the 1989 Green vote. But not massively so.
Yes, but UKIP will have the same problems all the other parties have right now. What plays well with one demographic upsets another. The country is becoming more "polarized", or at least that's what the Euros seem to be showing. Will we become a more cohesive bunch come the GE?
IIRC, his comments about her were invariably misogynistic and usually referenced campanology and tintinabulation, while celebrating the mortal demise of an evil sorceress.
Post of the night.
Mind you Rod has also predicted that Hilary cant possibly stand for POTUS in 2016 so if she does sit it out his reputation will be sealed.
Previous post was for MrJones. but on reflection "fractured" is possibly better than "polarized"
yeah, i do agree there'll be a lot of fall-back but if there are clusters it allows for "winning here" graphs in specific places to counter it in those specific places so the original idea of Ukip falling back across the board is likely to be wrong imo.
I can imagine.. isolations not my thing, I couldnt handle that
Currently in a small, windowless room in the austere Iron Horse Hotel in Amsterdam - here for a three-day conference and trying to avoid spend donors' money unnecessarily. I don't really need a window, but it does actually seem a little like a cell in a rather enlightened prison. For 3 days it'll be fine, but being locked up here for ten years might be a bit trying.
Amsterdam is well noted for things to do, if you're experiencing cabin fever.
I disagree, (as is both of our rights). As the GE approaches. all policies will come under greater scrutiny, and UKIP will find it harder to target both the left and right.
The Sheffield Hallam poll shouldn't have taken anyone by surprise. Ashcroft commissioned a marginal poll in Sheffield Hallam in October 2010 which showed it was a three-way marginal, and the Lib Dems polling has fallen further since. I've been saying Clegg's seat is under threat for years, although I imagine it would be closer in practice than this poll suggests.
The real question is, how many do we subtract for the "What the hell, it is only the Euros" voters? I am being serious, there were a few on here who did it. There is certainly a greater degree of "stickability" than in the past, but to what extent?
I disagree, (as is both of our rights). As the GE approaches. all policies will come under greater scrutiny, and UKIP will find it harder to target both the left and right.
This Sheffield Hallam poll completely contradicts the local election results from just a few days ago. I wonder if it will turn out to be a mistake of some sort.
I look forward to reading Rod Crosby's article tomorrow.
Rod Crosby was the "Sage of Liverpool" at the last GE, correctly forecasting a Hung Parliament, well before anyone else here.
He was also pretty accurate at predicting the last POTUS election result, where he demonstrated a lack of love for Hilary Clinton.
IIRC, his comments about her were invariably misogynistic and usually referenced campanology and tintinabulation, while celebrating the mortal demise of an evil sorceress.
Interesting analysis on the other channel, looking at the argument that Labour only limped through last night because of London. The argument works both ways, it would seem.
Here are the results last night without the South East Region:
LAB 27.26% UKP 26.69% CON 22.72% GRN 7.66% LIB 6.67%
Interesting that Labour has few targets in the SE...
I wonder if the night would have seemed different if the London results had been published through the night rather than waiting for Tower Hamlets, so we didn't have Lab and Con neck and neck for so long.
The problem was the innumerate pundits. Nick Robinson needs to take remedial lessons in maths.
It was obvious to anyone with a half-decent GCSE that Lab would leapfrog the Tories once Scotland and London came in.
I'll leave it to you to state the obvious. I was already conceding Labour would be second long before that.
Some of my better predictions from memory.
SNP to edge out Labour in 2007. Obama to beat Hilary in 2008. Long before the bookies twigged how the electoral system worked. How many states Hilary would win on Super Tuesday 2008. McCain to be GOP candidate in 2008. Obama to beat McCain in 2008. Hung Parliament 2010 (made in 2006). Before the Cleggasm I forecast 55 LD seats. Brown's post-election actions 2010 (hang on then offer to resign as Labour leader) FF seats in the Irish general election 2011. SNP landslide 2011, and LD mainland FPTP wipeout. Romney to win GOP nomination 2012. Obama to beat Romney 2012. 2013 The Pope would be a surprise foreign choice, probably from South America. Crossover by May 2014. (forecast made in September 2013) 2014 UKIP in serious contention for a seat in Scotland. (made in January, IIRC)
To be fair, I also made a couple of howlers, such as AV would win the referendum. (^_-)
One thing - I reckon if Labour can unseat Clegg then they'll get a majority for sure !
But as I've been saying all along, Labour's increase in Sheffield Hallam will probably vastly outstrip their national increase. Wealthy suburbs on the edge of big cities have been heavily trending towards Labour over the past 20 years as they've become more "Guardianised".
Although, yes, Labour will probably need to win a majority to get over the line in Hallam. I'm just saying that, they could potentially increase by about 15% in Hallam even if their national increase is "only" about 7/8%.
This Sheffield Hallam poll completely contradicts the local election results from just a few days ago. I wonder if it will turn out to be a mistake of some sort.
But local elections are often a very poor guide for the Lib Dems, because their councillors are generally such adept local campaigners that they ALWAYS pick up personal votes for local elections which don't translate into support for the party on a national level.
Probably more indicative of the Lib Dems' true support in Sheffield Hallam is their 3rd place in the Euro elections behind Labour and UKIP.
This is the sort of webpage which has you tearing your hair out. I'm trying to find the detailed ward result for Lewisham but this page just has a summary and doesn't seem to have any links to more detailed results:
"A Tower Hamlets councillor has criticised the “chaotic” procedures that have left the East End London borough still counting council election votes more than three days after polls closed.
Peter Golds, conservative councillor for Blackwall and Cubitt Town ward, said the figures were “in a mess” and that police had failed to ensure that counting could take place without interference.
Electoral chiefs suspended their operations at 3am on Monday with plans to recommence counting on Tuesday.
Recounts have been taking place at Bromley South ward - but even when the Bromley result is resolved the councillors’ team will not be complete as there will still be three vacancies in Blackwall and Cubitt Town where the election was postponed after a candidate's death.
The provisional council line-up shows Tower Hamlets First Group - backing re-elected mayor Lutfur Rahman - and Labour on 18 seats each. There are four Tories and no party has overall control."
Apologies to Mr.Brooke and others for bailing out of our conversation in the last thread. Fact is Herself discovered we don't have enough milk for tomorrow morning's needs and I was dispatched to get some.
What that meant was I have been out on my own in the dark. OK it was only up to the village co-op (and a quick pint in the New Inn opposite), but it was the first time I have been out at night without a carer for nearly a year. A big milestone. God bless the wonderful people at the Brighton Eye Hospital.
Comments
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2834
Since then the LD have fallen an extra 5% nationwide the CON have fallen 6% and LAB 1% on average. So that should be LD 28, CON 23, LAB 30 in Hallam.
Lab 1,211,753 (42.91%)
Con 555,392 (19.67%)
UKIP 501,831 (17.77%)
LD 261,731 (9.27%)
Green 157,738 (5.58%)
Ind 41,677 (1.48%)
TUSC 21,059 (0.75%)
Eng Dem 6,597 (0.23%)
BNP 6,372 (0.23%)
No Description 4,628 (0.16%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +4.01%
Con -6.25%
UKIP +16.22%
LD -13.33%
Green +3.33%
Ind -0.57%
TUSC +0.68%
Eng Dem -0.18%
BNP -4.10%
No Description +0.16%
Swing, Con to Lab: 5.13%
Rod Crosby was the "Sage of Liverpool" at the last GE, correctly forecasting a Hung Parliament, well before anyone else here.
He was also pretty accurate at predicting the last POTUS election result, where he demonstrated a lack of love for Hilary Clinton.
IIRC, his comments about her were invariably misogynistic and usually referenced campanology and tintinabulation, while celebrating the mortal demise of an evil sorceress.
It was obvious to anyone with a half-decent GCSE that Lab would leapfrog the Tories once Scotland and London came in.
For a number of reasons (not least the awful list system) we have no sense of connection to our MEPs. There is a sense that you can vote anyway you like because it doesn't matter. Nothing significant in the life of the voter will be impacted by how they vote in a Euro poll
Now this is wrong - but there is a huge disconnect between our MEPs and the electorates they serve. That is something that we need to address before people will start to vote in a more rational fashion at the Euros.
We have seen major protest votes at the Euros before (1989 being the most extreme example) and it had no lasting impact on the domestic political scene.
I suspect the UKIP vote is more sticky than the 1989 Green vote. But not massively so.
What plays well with one demographic upsets another.
The country is becoming more "polarized", or at least that's what the Euros seem to be showing.
Will we become a more cohesive bunch come the GE?
Mind you Rod has also predicted that Hilary cant possibly stand for POTUS in 2016 so if she does sit it out his reputation will be sealed.
Con 28,675
Lab 28,558
Ind Lab Group 6,617
LD 6,048
Ind 4,523
UKIP 4,028
Green 2,200
but on reflection "fractured" is possibly better than "polarized"
I disagree, (as is both of our rights). As the GE approaches. all policies will come under greater scrutiny, and UKIP will find it harder to target both the left and right.
http://www.hiptravelguide.com/review.html?rname=The Last Waterhole&loc=Amsterdam&cat=Venues
Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Nick Clegg (LIB)
Electorate: 69,378
Turnout: 73.70%
2010 Votes 2010 Share Predicted Votes
LIB 27,324 53.44% 37.41%
LAB 8,228 16.09% 23.57%
CON 12,040 23.55% 18.09%
UKIP 1,195 2.34% 15.19%
OTH 2,348 4.59% 5.75%
LIB Majority 15,284 29.89% Pred Maj 13.84%
Calculated Council results:
LD 37.03
LAB 24.09
Con 9.28
UKIP 15.35
Green 11.53
Some of my better predictions from memory.
SNP to edge out Labour in 2007.
Obama to beat Hilary in 2008. Long before the bookies twigged how the electoral system worked.
How many states Hilary would win on Super Tuesday 2008.
McCain to be GOP candidate in 2008.
Obama to beat McCain in 2008.
Hung Parliament 2010 (made in 2006).
Before the Cleggasm I forecast 55 LD seats.
Brown's post-election actions 2010 (hang on then offer to resign as Labour leader)
FF seats in the Irish general election 2011.
SNP landslide 2011, and LD mainland FPTP wipeout.
Romney to win GOP nomination 2012.
Obama to beat Romney 2012.
2013 The Pope would be a surprise foreign choice, probably from South America.
Crossover by May 2014. (forecast made in September 2013)
2014 UKIP in serious contention for a seat in Scotland. (made in January, IIRC)
To be fair, I also made a couple of howlers, such as AV would win the referendum. (^_-)
Although, yes, Labour will probably need to win a majority to get over the line in Hallam. I'm just saying that, they could potentially increase by about 15% in Hallam even if their national increase is "only" about 7/8%. But local elections are often a very poor guide for the Lib Dems, because their councillors are generally such adept local campaigners that they ALWAYS pick up personal votes for local elections which don't translate into support for the party on a national level.
Probably more indicative of the Lib Dems' true support in Sheffield Hallam is their 3rd place in the Euro elections behind Labour and UKIP.
https://www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/elections-2014/Pages/Election-results-for-22-May-2014.aspx
Peter Golds, conservative councillor for Blackwall and Cubitt Town ward, said the figures were “in a mess” and that police had failed to ensure that counting could take place without interference.
Electoral chiefs suspended their operations at 3am on Monday with plans to recommence counting on Tuesday.
Recounts have been taking place at Bromley South ward - but even when the Bromley result is resolved the councillors’ team will not be complete as there will still be three vacancies in Blackwall and Cubitt Town where the election was postponed after a candidate's death.
The provisional council line-up shows Tower Hamlets First Group - backing re-elected mayor Lutfur Rahman - and Labour on 18 seats each. There are four Tories and no party has overall control."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/elections-2014-london-borough-tower-hamlets-still-counting-ballot-papers-9434558.html
Not a farage fan, this guy. Not that the voters will mind or notice. Might motivate the opposition though.
http://moderngov.towerhamlets.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=22&RPID=4483954
Popular votes with 2 wards to declare:
Lab 29,588 (34.41%)
THF 26,136 (30.40%)
Con 9,560 (11.12%)
Green 7,685 (8.94%)
LD 5,250 (6.11%)
UKIP 4,485 (5.22%)
TUSC 1,890 (2.20%)
Ind 1,002 (1.17%)
Lab 33,754 (42.73%)
Con 15,059 (19.06%)
UKIP 11,272 (14.27%)
Green 10,559 (13.37%)
LD 5,241 (6.63%)
BNP 1,583 (2.00%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +1.64%
Con -5.54%
UKIP +13.83%
Green +4.77%
LD -10.84%
BNP -3.86%
Swing, Con to Lab: 3.59%