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SystemSystem Posts: 12,687
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam and finishing third behind the Tories!

The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Redcar being lost would be no surprise. It required a 25+% swing to the LDs to win in what is the Labour heartlands, and was primarily because of anger at the government for the closure of the Steel plant in the area. It was always likely it would return to the fold.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2014
    Pretty worrying article about people with British passports being a major component of jihadi groups in Syria:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27573376

    Can't we just strip them of passports so they don't come back?

    I wonder, do the left wing people that supported letting in huge numbers from poor, unstable, reactionary part of the world ever stop and consider whether they were wrong when they see this stuff?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Were these leaked by Dan Hodges' own secret sources? Smells like b/s to me.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Another escaped prisoner:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,937
    I'm sorry, TSE!!

    So, so Sorry!!!

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    Socrates said:

    Pretty worrying article about people with British passports being a major component of jihadi groups in Syria:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27573376

    Can't we just strip them of passports so they don't come back?

    I wonder, do the left wing people that supported letting in huge numbers from poor, unstable, reactionary part of the world ever stop and consider whether they were wrong when they see this stuff?

    The whole point of mass immigration was to give lefties a feeling of moral superiority over the right who thought it was a bad idea. They didn't really care what it would do to the country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    FPT: Mr. Tokyo, cheers for that answer.

    Mr. Socrates, it'd be comical if it weren't so serious.

    On-topic: I can't see Clegg losing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Votes cast in the local elections in Clegg's constituency:

    LD 9,557 (37.03%)
    Lab 6,217 (24.09%)
    UKIP 3,962 (15.35%)
    Green 2,976 (11.53%)
    Con 2,395 (9.28%)
    Ind 549 (2.13%)
    TUSC 152 (0.59%)

    A bit misleading because the Tories didn't contest 2 of the 5 wards, maybe to make life easier for the LDs. It worked in Stannington but in Crookes they lost to Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    Neil said:

    Were these leaked by Dan Hodges' own secret sources? Smells like b/s to me.

    Did Brian Coleman get re-elected?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Socrates said:

    Another escaped prisoner:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    Prisons are the remit of the Justice Secretary not the Home Secretary.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    Socrates said:

    Another escaped prisoner:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    She's busy rightly smashing the Police Federation, and well, I hate to break it to you, but the Prison Service falls under the remit of Chris Grayling.
  • CopperSulphateCopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    On topic, Clegg has got to go and go now.

    I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.

    But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. Time to stop being such a bunch of wet lettuces and boot him out tonight. Get in Ashdown as a caretaker, say lessons have been learned and hope to avoid wipe out next year.

    Their only real hope of a revival in the medium term is if dopey Ed gets in and makes a complete horlicks of everything which let's be honest even his own supporters expect him to do.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I noticed Dan Hodges rubbished the leak. If it looks as though Nick Clegg might lose his seat (assuming he doesn't announce his retirement as Dave appoints him to some Imperial role) would it not be likely that many LibDems would come over to the Tories in order to stop Labour winning?

    Do we get a YouGov tonight or is it on holiday with a hangover from its prediction success?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    Socrates said:

    Another escaped prisoner:

    Theresa May is all over the place.

    I hate to defend Theresa May, but:
    1) The personal ability of the Home Secretary to stop this kind of thing happening from time to time is probably not very high.
    2) If you have a big, expensive security system like a network of prisons and it _never_ gets breached, you're probably spending too much securing it, and you should really be putting some of the money you're spending on it somewhere else, like catching more criminals in the first place.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    Another escaped prisoner:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    Prisons are the remit of the Justice Secretary not the Home Secretary.

    Hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    CopperSulphate said:

    On topic, Clegg has got to go and go now.

    I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.

    But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. .

    Indeed. Much like him challenging Farage, it might not help to ditch Clegg, but what harm could it really do? The only reason it hasn't already happened is no-one seems to want the caretaker job prior to the 2015 MP cull.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    2010 locals, Sheffield Hallam:

    LD 26,534 (52.45%)
    Con 11,228 (22.19%)
    Lab 7,885 (15.59%)
    Green 3,359 (6.64%)
    UKIP 525 (1.04%)
    Others 1,058 (2.09%)

    Changes in 2014 compared to 2010:

    LD -15.42%
    Lab +8.50%
    Con -12.91%
    Green +4.89%
    UKIP +14.31%
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    He might but I doubt it. The one lesson the LDs need to learn quick is that their only hope as a member of a coalition [ which they profess to be a system of govt they believe in] then they have to defend govt policy - that's what real politics is. Far too often they've tried to be opposition in govt - it's unseemly when some Tories criticise them in the press/H/C but it goes both ways and Cable has been particularly snake-like within the coalition govt. It leaves them with zero cred in my book.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,127
    Cambridge, Redcar and Wells are half expected losses, Hallam isn't. Surely if you were trying to work out the last dregs of Lib Dem constituencies you wouldn't stick Wells in there.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    I think 'such and such didn't have the right stuff to be prime minister' is far more defined by circumstance than anything else.

    Hague and Howard for example never had a shot because of timing.

    Attlee doesn't exactly have a charismatic reputation, but defeated Churchill just after WWII (would anyone have predicted that a year out?). Kinnock was an excellent speaker (whatever you think of his politics, and I disagree with it on many points, his "I warn you not to" speech is superb work).

    Had John Smith (what was he like?) not died he would have been PM and who knows what happens with Blair and Brown.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    Were these leaked by Dan Hodges' own secret sources? Smells like b/s to me.

    Did Brian Coleman get re-elected?
    It appears that Coleman's charms didnt work on the people of Barnet as well as they have done with Arsenal strikers in the past.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    Next said:

    ToryJim said:

    Socrates said:

    Another escaped prisoner:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    Prisons are the remit of the Justice Secretary not the Home Secretary.

    Hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.

    Socrates on prisons is great.

    A few weeks ago, he wanted prisons to be listed from 1 to 6. With 1 being the harshest, and 6 being the holiday camp ones (I think he meant open prisons)

    I had to break it to him, that they are already categorised in a similar way, A to D
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    kle4 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    On topic, Clegg has got to go and go now.

    I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.

    But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. .

    Indeed. Much like him challenging Farage, it might not help to ditch Clegg, but what harm could it really do? The only reason it hasn't already happened is no-one seems to want the caretaker job prior to the 2015 MP cull.
    That's the key, that and there isn't an obvious strategy to pursue that could put them in a better situation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    Were these leaked by Dan Hodges' own secret sources? Smells like b/s to me.

    Did Brian Coleman get re-elected?
    It appears that Coleman's charms didnt work on the people of Barnet as well as they have done with Arsenal strikers in the past.
    That's a shame, we are going to be deprived of so much comedy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,127
    AndyJS said:

    2010 locals, Sheffield Hallam:

    LD 26,534 (52.45%)
    Con 11,228 (22.19%)
    Lab 7,885 (15.59%)
    Green 3,359 (6.64%)
    UKIP 525 (1.04%)
    Others 1,058 (2.09%)

    Changes in 2014 compared to 2010:

    LD -15.42%
    Lab +8.50%
    Con -12.91%
    Green +4.89%
    UKIP +14.31%

    What re the 2010 figures ?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Cambridge, Redcar and Wells are half expected losses, Hallam isn't. Surely if you were trying to work out the last dregs of Lib Dem constituencies you wouldn't stick Wells in there.

    This isn't about working out expected losses. This is someone trying to oust Clegg and trying to put pressure on MPs to support that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    MorrisDancer Alanbrooke STEM subjects have a higher than average return in terms of earnings compared to most degrees. While taxpayers should fund STEM courses for those from low income families as they are needed and they may otherwise not do a degree at all, I see no reason why the taxpayer should fund STEM courses for those from wealthy families who will go on to earn more than most of them do and who can perfectly well afford to repay their fees from their earnings or either upfront through their parents
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Corporeal Attlee was decent but dull, Kinnock and Miliband are just weird
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,769
    edited May 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
    Ah OK. In that case I'm calling shenanigans.

    But whoever is behind the shenanigans seems to be reasonably well organized and prepared to spend enough money on them to cover the cost of an ICM poll...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    edmundintokyo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
    Ah OK. In that case I'm calling shenanigans.

    But whoever is behind the shenanigans seems to be reasonably well organized and prepared to spend enough money them to cover the cost of an ICM poll...
    Yup.

    That said, didn't Mike get populus to publish some internal Tory polling in 2007?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Pulpstar said:

    Cambridge, Redcar and Wells are half expected losses, Hallam isn't. Surely if you were trying to work out the last dregs of Lib Dem constituencies you wouldn't stick Wells in there.

    It does seem odd, Wells does seem a relatively easy pick up but you never know.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    kle4 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    On topic, Clegg has got to go and go now.

    I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.

    But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. .

    Indeed. Much like him challenging Farage, it might not help to ditch Clegg, but what harm could it really do? The only reason it hasn't already happened is no-one seems to want the caretaker job prior to the 2015 MP cull.
    The only thing worse than Clegg would be a party civil war.

    For me I've long felt it'd be best if Clegg exited early 2015 with the party withdrawing from government at the same time. Leaving a Conservative minority government in for a little bit, then election campaign.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edmundintokyo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
    Ah OK. In that case I'm calling shenanigans.

    But whoever is behind the shenanigans seems to be reasonably well organized and prepared to spend enough money them to cover the cost of an ICM poll...
    Having gone and looked at the rules.

    Private polling is private, if the commissioning party puts something into the public domain then the full tables/methodology relating to what's published (i.e. if you do a lot of questions and the client only publishes the results to one you only publish methodology on that one) should be released within two working days.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
    But this isnt a 3rd party leak - the info wont have come from ICM, it could only have come (directly or indirectly) from the supposed client. I do hope someone does ask ICM about it to get on the record whether there was an actual poll at all or whether we have another Dan Hodges situation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    corporeal said:

    kle4 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    On topic, Clegg has got to go and go now.

    I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.

    But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. .

    Indeed. Much like him challenging Farage, it might not help to ditch Clegg, but what harm could it really do? The only reason it hasn't already happened is no-one seems to want the caretaker job prior to the 2015 MP cull.
    The only thing worse than Clegg would be a party civil war.

    For me I've long felt it'd be best if Clegg exited early 2015 with the party withdrawing from government at the same time. Leaving a Conservative minority government in for a little bit, then election campaign.
    A civil war among the party supporters has already happened, leading to mass exodus. Does it really matter if the leadership squabbles if so few supporters remain to be disturbed?

    In any case, if the losses the LDs have suffered these past 4 years are not the time for a civil war when the leader will not stand down, when is the time?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
    But this isnt a 3rd party leak - the info wont have come from ICM, it could only have come (directly or indirectly) from the supposed client. I do hope someone does ask ICM about it to get on the record whether there was an actual poll at all or whether we have another Dan Hodges situation.
    The polls do exist, the Guardian has seen them.

    So they could say this

    The polls undertaken in April and May are of all respondents expressing an intention to vote and are turnout weighted. It does not include some adjustments ICM uses for national polls. The polls also question the value of a personal-vote showing. Although Munt, Swales and Huppert have positive ratings for a good job by their constituents, fewer than half recognise them.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Major Attlee was a fine officer, my grandfather at least thought so as a conscripted private in the same regiment in WW1. A curious fact of Attlees career is that he was one of the last two men to leave the Gallipolli beachhead when it was evacuated.

    He did have the advantage of leading in a less media driven world. His eve of poll message in 1950 is an all time classic!
    HYUFD said:

    Corporeal Attlee was decent but dull, Kinnock and Miliband are just weird

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Socrates said:

    Another escaped prisoner:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prisoner-who-tried-to-hack-mans-arm-off-with-a-machete-escapes-from-suffolk-jail--the-second-inmate-to-escape-from-the-facility-in-48-hours-9434747.html

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?


    Socrates, prison escapes and prisoner absconds are detailed in the Prison Performance Digest, half way down this page

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prison-and-probation-trusts-performance-statistics-201213

    From the data, absconding from prisons is down by 25% between 2009/10 and 2012/13.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @corporeal FPT

    My aunt was very close to John. He is a genuinely nice man, something that is all too rare in politics. He's humble and unassuming, and that came across to the voters with the soapbox tour. Ultimately, they may have regarded him as boring, but he was seen a decent and capable & they gave him the benefit of the doubt.

    People say that EdM is nice on a personal level (I've never met him), but he comes across as a bit of a nerd. While his ideas could be good, he seems to be too enthused by the detail: PMs need to be big picture guys - Ed is a details man. I suspect that the voters will make that judgement on the day - do they want Ed facing off to Putin making the big calls for the country?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2014
    So when all the Lab/Lib/Con and the MSM are hoping and praying for the UKIP bubble to burst, what we are really experiencing is the beginning of that truly horrific thing; an extinction event.

    Only it's no UKIP that is going under, but that ancient primitive life form the L/Dems who by failing to adapt, have outlived their usefulness.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    IIRC - It costs 20 grand per phone poll.

    So someone commissioning four of them probably spent 80 grand to do so.....
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Isn't there a thing in the British Polling Council rules that says once you leak part of a poll you have to publish the whole thing or something?

    Either way, I wouldn't take much notice of this one without seeing the full thing.

    Last time I checked, if only the organisation that commissioned the polling publishes the polling, then it has to be published in full.

    However third party leaks do not count.
    But this isnt a 3rd party leak - the info wont have come from ICM, it could only have come (directly or indirectly) from the supposed client. I do hope someone does ask ICM about it to get on the record whether there was an actual poll at all or whether we have another Dan Hodges situation.
    The polls do exist, the Guardian has seen them.
    Then I cant see why the full datasets shouldnt be published according to the BPC rules seeing as the client has obviously publicised selective extracts through the Guardian.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Slightly disappointing result for Labour in Leeds in the local elections. Their share of the vote increased by only 2.51%.

    Leeds local elections, popular votes:

    Lab 71,602 (38.18%)
    Con 39,953 (21.31%)
    UKIP 32,625 (17.40%)
    LD 18,867 (10.06%)
    Green 17,203 (9.17%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +2.51
    Con -5.27%
    UKIP +16.54%
    LD -14.49%
    Green +6.74
    BNP -6.79% (didn't stand this time)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The leak seems to be a pre-emptive strike. Let the feuding begin.

    @LibDemPress: On Thursday, @LibDems secured 38.7% of the vote across Sheffield Hallam. Labour managed 23.6% whilst the Tories came fifth with just 10.7%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    BPC rules, comes down to the definition of employees and agents

    2.6. Organisations conducting privately commissioned surveys have the right to maintain the confidentiality of survey findings. However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public by the organisation [its employees or agents] that commissioned the survey, such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings.

    The client and survey organisation may keep other findings (that have not been published) confidential except where such findings are relevant to the topics covered in questions that have entered the public domain or where the question order is relevant to the published results. The research organisation must place other relevant data on its web site within 2 working days of the original release of the results into the public domain in order to place such information into their proper context. If other findings cast doubt on those that have been published then the agency must also release those findings

    http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects-and-rules/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sheffield Hallam was a safe Tory seat until 97. There must be a large number of voters who switched to LD to keep out Labour.

    I think it unlikely that Clegg will be defeated.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MikeK said:

    So when all the Lab/Lib/Con and the MSM are hoping and praying for the UKIP bubble to burst, what we are really experiencing is the beginning of that truly horrific thing; an extinction event.

    Only it's no UKIP that is going under, but that ancient primitive life form the L/Dems who by failing to adapt, have outlived their usefulness.

    They've had worse in the 50's, so extinction is overblown methinks.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    kle4 said:

    corporeal said:

    kle4 said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    On topic, Clegg has got to go and go now.

    I feel a bit sorry for him myself and think that he's basically the focus for left wing anger over their feeling of betrayal in going into coalition with the Tories. But of course the maths at the last election didn't leave him with any choice.

    But if they don't do anything right now they've basically had it. .

    Indeed. Much like him challenging Farage, it might not help to ditch Clegg, but what harm could it really do? The only reason it hasn't already happened is no-one seems to want the caretaker job prior to the 2015 MP cull.
    The only thing worse than Clegg would be a party civil war.

    For me I've long felt it'd be best if Clegg exited early 2015 with the party withdrawing from government at the same time. Leaving a Conservative minority government in for a little bit, then election campaign.
    A civil war among the party supporters has already happened, leading to mass exodus. Does it really matter if the leadership squabbles if so few supporters remain to be disturbed?

    In any case, if the losses the LDs have suffered these past 4 years are not the time for a civil war when the leader will not stand down, when is the time?

    It wasn't a civil war, or at least not a public one. I'm thinking of a very messy top of the party war over trying to oust Clegg.

    As to if Clegg is insisting on going through to GE2015. Then there's a problem. It has to be done cleanly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 locals, Sheffield Hallam:

    LD 26,534 (52.45%)
    Con 11,228 (22.19%)
    Lab 7,885 (15.59%)
    Green 3,359 (6.64%)
    UKIP 525 (1.04%)
    Others 1,058 (2.09%)

    Changes in 2014 compared to 2010:

    LD -15.42%
    Lab +8.50%
    Con -12.91%
    Green +4.89%
    UKIP +14.31%

    What re the 2010 figures ?
    This year's local elections are being compared with the 2010 locals, the last time they were fought by the same candidates.

    It's a particularly useful comparison because the 2010 general election was held on the same day as the 2010 locals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    FoxinSox Yes, he was a tough character and had real world experience in social work and the army and not just Oxbridge, academia and politics like Ed M
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: Odds of Clegg being ditched continue to fall; now 5/2 to go before general election. Farron 7/4 to take over. http://t.co/Ol2Q9g3B19
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BPC rules, comes down to the definition of employees and agents

    2.6. Organisations conducting privately commissioned surveys have the right to maintain the confidentiality of survey findings. However, in the event the results of a privately commissioned poll are made public by the organisation [its employees or agents] that commissioned the survey, such results will be deemed to have entered the public domain and procedures outlined above will be followed in respect of those findings.

    Seems pretty clear to me that only an agent of the person or organisation who commissioned the poll could have made the findings public. Looking forward to seeing the details!
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Charles said:

    @corporeal FPT

    My aunt was very close to John. He is a genuinely nice man, something that is all too rare in politics. He's humble and unassuming, and that came across to the voters with the soapbox tour. Ultimately, they may have regarded him as boring, but he was seen a decent and capable & they gave him the benefit of the doubt.

    People say that EdM is nice on a personal level (I've never met him), but he comes across as a bit of a nerd. While his ideas could be good, he seems to be too enthused by the detail: PMs need to be big picture guys - Ed is a details man. I suspect that the voters will make that judgement on the day - do they want Ed facing off to Putin making the big calls for the country?

    John Major and Gordon Brown are both decent men,which is not a word I would associate with Tony Blair,whose appalling post-PM money-grabbing performance is obscene.

    Ed Miliband has shown the spine that's needed to face Putin already.Murdoch,the bankers and energy giants for starters know it.It's not about whether he can eat a bacon roll.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @TheScreamingEagles

    I mailed Mike over the guest article. He refers me back to you, as he's on holiday.

    Btw, the datawrapper thingy is too unsophisticated for my charts. It'll have to be JPG or PNG as in the old days.

    What's your email?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited May 2014
    welshowl said:

    MikeK said:

    So when all the Lab/Lib/Con and the MSM are hoping and praying for the UKIP bubble to burst, what we are really experiencing is the beginning of that truly horrific thing; an extinction event.

    Only it's no UKIP that is going under, but that ancient primitive life form the L/Dems who by failing to adapt, have outlived their usefulness.

    They've had worse in the 50's, so extinction is overblown methinks.
    At the GE, the Lib Dems nightmare result is higher than UKIP's wildest dreams.

    But it's been said a lot in the last couple of years in Lib Dem circles, we've been through worse and built ourselves back up, people have been predicting our death for decades and never been right yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,807
    RodCrosby said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    I mailed Mike over the guest article. He refers me back to you, as he's on holiday.

    Btw, the datawrapper thingy is too unsophisticated for my charts. It'll have to be JPG or PNG as in the old days.

    What's your email?

    I'll send you an email, Mike's given me your email address.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,998
    Laugh? I nearly shat.....

    It doesn't have to be realistic. I've been posting a little on LibDemVoice and I'd say its about 40% flaming torches, 40% Clegg is Lord, 20% too terrified for rational thought. This might tip them over the edge.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Some Lds have never reconciled to the reality of being in government - like many on the party extremes they revel in the luxury of whinging and whining with no responsibily to the hard things in life - when all the available choices hurt someone - but they still have to be made.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Since Clegg has declined the Whisky and Revolver, it seems the Lib Dems are about to embark on two months of leadership squabbles and speculation.

    Popcorn!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @chrisshipitv: LibDem John Pugh: Clegg must go(& Vince lead us) LibDem Gordon Birtwistle: Clegg must stay but he must offer in/out referendum @itvnews At10
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    VolcanoPete Brown has begun to earn a fair whack on the speaker circuit too. Blair was at least pleasant to the little people, like Major, Brown through telephones at him, apparently the No 10 cleaners hated him
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNews: GUARDIAN FRONT PAGE "Clegg taking Lib Dems to wipeout" #skypapers http://t.co/oXK7Z8jUCt
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2014
    Speaking of polls, I see YouGov was closest to correctly forecasting the outcome of the 5 major parties contesting the European elections with an average error rate of 1.4%

    The results as per http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ were:

    YouGov ...........1.4%
    ICM ................ 2.0%
    Opinium ........ 2.1%
    TNS ............... 2.2%
    ComRes ........ 2.6%
    Survation ...... 2.6%

    ComRes never really stood a chance after understating support for the blues by a hefty 3.9% - they really don't like the Tories do they?

    It will be interesting to see how many PBers outperformed the professional pollsters in the chase for Ladbrokes' free £50 bet competition - quite a few would be my guess. Maybe Shadsy should recruit the top performers in helping him to frame the odds for the Magic Sign's political markets.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeL

    Expenses to fund.....the campaign? or was that champagne?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    I've commented about BBC bias in the past. As such I'd like to say that I feel their commentary has been quite well balanced (in really tough circumstances) for these elections. I'm sure that perhaps it hasn't seemed so to some others, but such is life. For me though, if I can criticise then then I should also praise. (Just for the record, in case they read)
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    MikeL said:

    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?

    Brussels isnt the most exciting place in the world but it probably beats Newark.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    MikeL Cameron was in Newark on Sunday, Farage presumably has gone to collect his new paycheque
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MikeL said:

    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?

    He is probably showing the new MEP's the ropes. I'm sure he'll be back before the weekend to help Helmer in Newark. Don't forget UKIP no longer a one man band.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Listening to Farage last night, one could be forgiven for gaining the impression that he considered Newark was already won!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Weaning piglets to feed at the trough?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On topic: looks fishy to me, especially this bit: "commissioned by a Lib Dem supporter"
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    They do a nice range of beers, and its after closing time here?
    MikeL said:

    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?

    MikeL said:

    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited May 2014
    I have no idea if this is just bitterness, or the truth, but it is thought provoking.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,998
    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,643
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Socrates said:

    Theresa May is all over the place. Immigration still up, prisons not being able to keep people inside - what the hell is she doing?

    What do you want her to do, personally patrol the perimeter of every prison in the land and give any would-be escapees a blast of her Police Federation speech?
    Criminals should be stuck on an island surrounded by man eating crocodiles

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/05/what-skull-cracker-and-his-pals-reveal-about-our-pathetic-jails.html
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Socrates said:

    Pretty worrying article about people with British passports being a major component of jihadi groups in Syria:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27573376

    Can't we just strip them of passports so they don't come back?

    I wonder, do the left wing people that supported letting in huge numbers from poor, unstable, reactionary part of the world ever stop and consider whether they were wrong when they see this stuff?

    It makes me wonder that white British ex-service men going to fight in wars overseas does not bring the same type of judgement here. What about those who join the French and Spanish foreign legions, are they too to be stripped of their UK nationality? What about the Gurkhas and Sikhs in the British army?

    Or is it because these people are not white, not Christian, not like us and that due to their different religious beliefs that they are a danger to all?

    What about the young UK Jews who volunteer to do military service in Israel? Should they too be stripped of UK citizenship?

    Should your argument be that anyone who goes overseas to fight and possibly die mean that they will be stripped of their passports. Makes a mockery of all those UK military of all religions who died in the Falklands, 2 Iraq wars and Afghanistan let alone all those who fought in the area from the Crusades to the present day.

    Remember also that the UK has a lot of history in the middle East, a lot of which is not pleasant or nice. And because of that history and what could be called folk memories there is still a lot of antipathy to the UK and that by allowing petty vindictiveness of the sort quoted, we could be adding to the list of mistrust.

    My own feeling is that these people are putting their untrained lives on the line for something they believe in, some will die (unfortunately that will happen), some will enjoy the adventure, some may become radicalised, and some may be so sickened by the madness of war that they will become pacifists. (Makes our xbox young look like effete wimps.)

    Remember that it was UK and US meddling in the area that started the whole thing off. Russia got involved as well to "protect" their own interests. The problem really being all our governments, of all colours, having a severe lack of cojones to actually finish the job that they start and the brains to work out a viable end game. Syria being a prime example, let alone Iraq and Afghanistan.

    Maybe this so called problem of radicalised UK moslem youths is the unintended byproduct of our own making?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RochdalePioneers

    Would his boss give him permission? David would not be keen on an election contest if it could be avoided?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    RochdalePioneers said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
    Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited May 2014
    RochdalePioneers said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
    Don't know, but we're in for an entertaining few months watching the Lib-Dems tear themselves apart.

    Have we heard from Mark Senior, BTW?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    peter_from_putney said:

    Speaking of polls, I see YouGov was closest to correctly forecasting the outcome of the 5 major parties contesting the European elections with an average error rate of 1.4%

    The results as per http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ were:

    YouGov ...........1.4%
    ICM ................ 2.0%
    Opinium ........ 2.1%
    TNS ............... 2.2%
    ComRes ........ 2.6%
    Survation ...... 2.6%

    ComRes never really stood a chance after understating support for the blues by a hefty 3.9% - they really don't like the Tories do they?

    It will be interesting to see how many PBers outperformed the professional pollsters in the chase for Ladbrokes' free £50 bet competition - quite a few would be my guess. Maybe Shadsy should recruit the top performers in helping him to frame the odds for the Magic Sign's political markets.

    Shadsy doesn't need any help from us:

    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/05/26/betting-markets-beat-pollsters-in-euro-elections/


  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Daily mail front page -


    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98639/the_daily_mail_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    Neil said:

    MikeL said:

    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?

    Brussels isnt the most exciting place in the world but it probably beats Newark.
    Hurumph. Excuse me? Newark is a great place and certainly beats some Belgian backwater as a destination of choice.

    Anyway, Farage is in Newark this coming weekend.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    PoliticsHome @politicshome

    Tomorrow's Times front page: Farage sets his sights on Labour heartlands http://polho.me/1gvPT1e

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98640/the_times_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Tykejohnno said:

    Daily mail front page -


    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/98639/the_daily_mail_tuesday_27th_may_2014.html

    Looks bloody dodgy doesn't he!

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,998
    ToryJim said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Were you up for Clegg?" Could become the new "up for Portillo" moment!

    Blissful though that would be, I can't see him lasting that long. Surely he will be resigned by the party, which puts him front and centre to go to Europe as our new commissioner, regardless of the alleged Lansley plan.
    Clegg isn't going to be EU Commissioner.
    Which would be the final insult. There is an honourable way for Clegg to resign, and as you suggest it seems the door is shut. Could be reopened though. As a Labourite its in our short term interest for Clegg tocling to his red boxes to the bitter end, I just can't believe that the party will let him.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Richard_Tyndall said:


    Hurumph. Excuse me? Newark is a great place and certainly beats some Belgian backwater as a destination of choice.

    I've never had the pleasure of visiting Newark, but I would take a hell of lot of persuading that the restaurants, ballet and opera beat those of Brussels.
  • ProudToBeLabourProudToBeLabour Posts: 7
    The reason that Clegg will lose is clear. He did not stand up for Sheffield Forgemasters, despite the sage advice of Ed Miliband.

    Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, despite the ridiculous accusations of Communism by the Tory Gutter Rags, Ed took a centrist path by vowing to always keep the minimum wage equal to the average wage.

    Only Ed Miliband has an answer for the Cost of Living Crisis. The Tory Toff and Nick Clegg are Two Peas in the Same Pod: they have put £450 extra VAT on your Shopping Bill! Why? To give an Inheritance Tax Cut to the Three Thousand Richest Estates! Labour would build a Million Extra Homes, paid for by a Bankers' Bonus Tax.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Neil said:

    MikeL said:

    Why has Farage gone to Brussels tonight?

    Surely he should now be campaigning in Newark?

    Brussels isnt the most exciting place in the world but it probably beats Newark.
    Hurumph. Excuse me? Newark is a great place and certainly beats some Belgian backwater as a destination of choice.

    Anyway, Farage is in Newark this coming weekend.
    Indeed - the Newark Museum is the largest museum in New Jersey.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Could Paddy lead the Lib-Dems from the Lords? What the Lib's need now is someone who is strong and determined, not someone who's falling apart emotionally and physically before the electorates eye's - Bring Back Paddy!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    ProudToBeLabour said:


    Labour would create Youth Jobs in Sheffield by increasing the National Minimum Wage.

    How many jobs are created by raising the minimum wage?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    "Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam and finishing third behind the Tories!"

    If you believe this story which I don't, those nice people at Wm Hills are offering odds of 7/1 against Labour winning this seat.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @ProudToBeLabour

    We appreciate your efforts but you are only making us nostalgic for Adrian Harper.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    ProudtobeLabour Presumably you mean keep the increase in minimum wage equal to the increase in the average wage
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @Neil - What is going on in Ireland??
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    So let me get this straight: ICM think that the voters of Sheffield Hallam have stuck with the LDs in local elections but hate Clegg so much they'd defect on mass in a general election. Unconvinced, this smells like a political assassination attempt.
This discussion has been closed.

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