politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1301243699943403525?s=21

Grandiose said:

A selection of polls today, in UK style:

Ipsos - Biden 47 (n/c) Trump 40 (n/c) - last week
YouGov - Biden 51 (+4) Trump 40 (-1) - last Friday
IPC/TIPP - Biden 49 (+1) Trump 41 (n/c) - last month
USC Dornsife - Biden 51 (-1) Trump 42 (n/c) - yesterday
Rasmussen - Biden 49 (+3) Trump 45 (n/c) - last week
Suffolk - Biden 50 (-3) Trump 43 (+2) - last month
Quinnipiac Biden 52 (n/c) Trump 42 (+5) - mid-July
Selzer - Biden 49 (+2) Trump 41 (-2) - since March
Opinium - Biden 54 (+2) Trump 39 (-1) - 7th July
Morning Consult Biden 51 (+1) Trump 43 (n/c) last week.

Alistair said:

A reminder that the Male / Female turnout split at the last election was 45 / 55

rottenborough said:

"Currently, 12 states do not allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, including the battlegrounds of Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/voting-election-day.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage



Trump will declare victory on election night and then America and its legal system will somehow have to decide whether it wants to remain a democracy or fold up.

Stakes could not be higher.

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

another_richard said:

Anyone know why the testing data hasn't been updated for a few days ?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.

Utterly insane.

I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.

Pro_Rata said:

It does look.like a significant portion of the removals of restrictions in northern towns last week and coming into effect today could end up.reversed, for varying reasons.

Looked and still look optimistic - Bolton (reversed), Burnley
Looked OK, still look OK, but council opposition plus location should have prevailed - Trafford (reversed)
Looked OK, still look OK - Stockport; Bradford ex. city, Keighley; Calderdale ex Halifax
Looked OK, resurgence, quite likely reversal - Rossendale
Looked OK, resurgence, possible later reversal - Hyndburn, Kirklees ex Dewsbury (possible reversal for Huddersfield only, eek)

Elsewhere, Leeds will likely at very least be an area of concern, if not more, next time out, as might Corby and Kettering. with Wirral as an outside chance. Further south, esp Dacorum, escapes for now, I think.

Newark and Sherwood look like a safe list removal, but I think they will be cautious removing too much else too fast.

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

BoZo's message to MPs worried about how badly he has performed thus far...

"These were the good times"

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1301163238185369600

Well he's right, I don't know what you are criticising it for.

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.

In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.

It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.

Casino_Royale said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Andy_JS said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?

That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.

The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.

The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?

There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.

I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.

I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..

The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?

The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.

As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.

The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!

Sad!

It's the United States of America, not the American Union.

The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.

Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.

In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.

It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.

New York
- no riots

Los Angeles
- no riots

Chicago
- no riots

Houston
- no riots

Phoenix
- it's 130 degrees out there... no riots

Philadelphia
- no riots

San Antonio / San Diego / Dallas / San Jose... no riots

Is Portland in a permanent state of riot ?

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301196763769057282?s=20

When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...

What?

Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.

Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013

You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.

That's forty four years.

Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.

Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.

That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party

Charles said:

@eristdoof @Alasdair

The issue with the jungle primary is that it is run in JUNE and the election is in NOVEMBER

Low turn out, heavily marketed to Democrat party members, little salience among the non politically active, overseas voters unable to participate.

This is very different to eg the French system, which I don’t particularly like (because it ends up with non real choices like Le Pen vs AN Other) but is not an attempt to gerrymander the system

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/02/covid-fears-grow-after-reports-of-crowding-among-arrivals-at-uk-airports

We couldn't fuck this up harder if we tried

MrEd said:

MrEd said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301196763769057282?s=20

When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...

What?

Not the most logical of arguments

Trump's, @rcs1000 not yours

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.

In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"The Assistant: The most gripping and original psychological thriller of 2020!
Paperback – 6 Aug. 2020
by S. K. Tremayne"

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Assistant-S-K-Tremayne/dp/0008309558

Are SeanT and Co. on a flounce, or under publisher-required house arrest? Not like him/her/them not to make us aware of such a thing in person...

SeanT is on a bit of a social media break.

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1270621968535076867

edmundintokyo said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

BIden's overall lead is up but his lead in battleground states is down according to RCP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com

Trump loses PV by 7 but shades the EC.

Now that would be a crisis of legitimacy in anyone's book.

Yes, there's a point at which the states with the people living in them start to ask, "is this United States of America thing something we want to be a part of".

That said, if the state polling is showing something totally different to the national polling my first guess would be that the state polling is wrong, rather than that the national polling is wrong or the Electoral College is wrong.

(Or the way RCP aggregates the polling is wrong, this is the kind of comparison where you really want to account for House Effects.)

MarqueeMark said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"The Assistant: The most gripping and original psychological thriller of 2020!
Paperback – 6 Aug. 2020
by S. K. Tremayne"

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Assistant-S-K-Tremayne/dp/0008309558

Are SeanT and Co. on a flounce, or under publisher-required house arrest? Not like him/her/them not to make us aware of such a thing in person...

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

I hope Charles isn't triggered by this...

https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1301233654656622603

How dare you criticise our illustrious PM in such a shameful way!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BluestBlue said:

Foxy said:

Grandiose said:

A selection of polls today, in UK style:

Ipsos - Biden 47 (n/c) Trump 40 (n/c) - last week
YouGov - Biden 51 (+4) Trump 40 (-1) - last Friday
IPC/TIPP - Biden 49 (+1) Trump 41 (n/c) - last month
USC Dornsife - Biden 51 (-1) Trump 42 (n/c) - yesterday
Rasmussen - Biden 49 (+3) Trump 45 (n/c) - last week
Suffolk - Biden 50 (-3) Trump 43 (+2) - last month
Quinnipiac Biden 52 (n/c) Trump 42 (+5) - mid-July
Selzer - Biden 49 (+2) Trump 41 (-2) - since March
Opinium - Biden 54 (+2) Trump 39 (-1) - 7th July
Morning Consult Biden 51 (+1) Trump 43 (n/c) last week.

Not a clear swing to Trump is it?

I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.

Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.

Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.

If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)

Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.

Pathetic LOSERS have "won" the Presidential election in our great, GREAT Republic FIVE times!

Who knew!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote

1824
1876
1888
2000
2016

In all FOUR since 1876, the PATHETIC LOSER has been a REPUBLICAN!

Sad!

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301196763769057282?s=20

Well, if life would be totally obliterated by Biden's election, the other effects seem somewhat superfluous.

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.

In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.

It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.

As I said, that CNN meme is being shared all over middle class white Facebook according to my friends. For Trump people it's the proof that they needed about media cover ups about the severity of what's happening elsewhere in the country and what might come to there town/city/suburb.

Back in June there were demonstrations and riots in Los Angeles. There was looting on Rodeo Drive.

In the last week, BLM tried to organise a march and got about 100 people to turn up.

If you are in Wisconsin or Portland, then there's a big problem. If you're in most cities in America, then there are no riots. There aren't even any peaceful demonstrations.

MrEd said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

That's the narrative, and it's one that - for example - Conrad Black and Andrew Sullivan have both written about in the last two weeks.

But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.

One problem with the polls last time was that in order to make the samples balanced, they compromised on randomness, which meant they failed to pick up on important movements.

A lot is being made of people overcompensating for the 2016 shock by overstating Trump's chances but I'm beginning to wonder whether a closer analogy is 2017 with Biden as May with regards to the polls.

As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.

More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.

Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:

"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."

That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.

isam said:

Perhaps tomorrow will see IPSOS-MORI's leader image ratings? I wonder whether Sir Keir will have an improved "personality" rating

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.

Utterly insane.

I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.

I think, IIRC, Cyclefree's idea of flying them to a holding camp in the Falklands would be pretty popular.

I missed Cyclefree suggesting that, I'm very surprised she's the last person I'd expect to say that. But yes it'd work.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301196763769057282?s=20

When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...

What?

Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.

Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013

You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.

That's forty four years.

Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.

Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.

That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party

It was a victory for an incumbent with a very long and largely moderate record in Congress. You can claim it is a victory for AOC if you like, but you have absolutely no evidence that her 'endorsement' made a jot of difference.

(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)

The evidence is clear, in February Kennedy was on 39% with progressives to 36% for Markey, after AOC agreed to appear in Markey ads from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives. Markey then just grew it from there

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/SenatePrimaryAug2020Toplines8-12.pdf

Amongst Democratic primary voters Markey won the college educated left comfortably while Kennedy won the working class

kamski said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Andy_JS said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?

That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.

The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.

The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?

There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.

I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.

I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..

The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?

The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.

As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.

The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!

Sad!

It's the United States of America, not the American Union.

The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.

Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.

Ooh mustn't question the founding fathers. Nobody with more than 2 brain cells to rub together gives a toss if the electoral college system was inscribed on stone tablets by god almighty, it's still shite.

Besides, your story about the motivation of the creators of the electoral college is wrong.

glw said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1301243699943403525?s=21

America is so fucked. A bold experiment in democracy and law is coming to an end.

I have said before the social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb, and I do mean that. I not sure that social media and democracy are compatible, I coming round to the view that you can have one or the other but not both.

MrEd said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

I think @Casino_Royale might have been sarcastic given some of his disputes with @Philip_Thompson on this...

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1301257157011218441

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1301252827810017280

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.

The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.

Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.

He doesn't need to do any more.

The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.

In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.

In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.

Surely, that can only be down to the extraordinary calming influence of President Donald Trump?

Casino_Royale said:

kamski said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Casino_Royale said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Andy_JS said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?

That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.

The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.

The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?

There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.

I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.

I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..

The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?

The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.

As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.

The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!

Sad!

It's the United States of America, not the American Union.

The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.

Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.

Ooh mustn't question the founding fathers. Nobody with more than 2 brain cells to rub together gives a toss if the electoral college system was inscribed on stone tablets by god almighty, it's still shite.

Besides, your story about the motivation of the creators of the electoral college is wrong.

Your alternative is to change the US Constitution.

Remind me how that's done?

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1301196763769057282?s=20

When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...

What?

Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.

Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013

You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.

That's forty four years.

Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.

Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.

That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party

It was a victory for an incumbent with a very long and largely moderate record in Congress. You can claim it is a victory for AOC if you like, but you have absolutely no evidence that her 'endorsement' made a jot of difference.

(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)

The evidence is clear, in February Kennedy was on 39% with progressives to 36% for Markey, after AOC agreed to appear in Markey ads from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives. Markey then just grew it from there

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/SenatePrimaryAug2020Toplines8-12.pdf

Amongst Democratic primary voters Markey won the college educated left comfortably while Kennedy won the working class

None of that in any way proves that AOC had even the slightest impact on the vote.

Let me quote your own words back to you "from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives".

You can claim that as a stunning victory for progressives in... in... in keeping a popular incumbent Senator with a moderate voting record. But you have offered up so far the sum total of zero, zilch and nada evidence for it.

HYUFD said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1301243699943403525?s=21

America is so fucked. A bold experiment in democracy and law is coming to an end.

I have said before the social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb, and I do mean that. I not sure that social media and democracy are compatible, I coming round to the view that you can have one or the other but not both.

They are but it makes politics far more tribal not just in the US but here too, though if you follow the right people you can still get breaking news and some informative analysis and information on twitter

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"The Assistant: The most gripping and original psychological thriller of 2020!
Paperback – 6 Aug. 2020
by S. K. Tremayne"

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Assistant-S-K-Tremayne/dp/0008309558