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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden moves back to a clear lead in the WH2020 betting after a day which saw him slip behind Trump
This has been a huge day on the White House race betting markets which saw, for the first time in months, Trump becoming the favourite on the Betfair exchange where so far nearly there have been nearly £72m worth of matched bets. Heaven know what the total will look like by November 3rd.
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Well the British pollsters are
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301129394799419392
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301212256202563587
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301198596294029315
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301188978247335939?s=20
Biden 1.95
Dem 1.9
Trump 2.12
Rep 2.08
So header is right about the sharp move back to Biden but the risk premium remains (and now for Trump also). The market is not convinced both men will make it.
Remarkably you can lay Mark Cuban (no, me neither), Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.
Sorry, was not on for a while.
My theory re the Black vote this November is fueled by one of the BLM's reactions to the series of police killings this year - voter registration drives and community organizing to get out the vote. There is a determination to vote and get black representatives involved in government at all levels, not to support one of their own in breaking barriers (Obama), but to get decision-makers in place to start tackling the issues that white politicians of both stripes have failed to do even since the civil rights movement.
If the Black vote is turning out to vote for local and state representatives, they'll be there for the US elections - Pres, Senate and House - too.
I think you might see some of the same effect in the Latino vote, but not so pronounced as the Black vote.
Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 45 (n/c)
On last week
In normal UK parlance...
Sad!
Just a hunch.
If he'd said "I know it's been tough. It's about to get easier" he'd be criticising him for that too.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
https://twitter.com/thewillmetcalfe/status/1301217648450113540?s=21
Both Ras and YouGov have shifted towards Biden, which hardly seems to fit with narrative that Trump is closing the gap?
https://labourlist.org/2020/09/fascism-is-back-and-yet-the-left-are-turning-on-each-other/
At the moment his National poll lead is such that I'm not currently concerned but if it does narrow then his big bit not winning numbers in Texas and his huge margin in California come into play.
But, contra wise, if he opens up any bigger a lead then Georgia and Texas become genuine candidates for him to pickup and a huge blow out win.
So please don't insult peoples' intellgience in pretending it was not critical.
Edit: And to be clear, I am all for Scott posting tweets with little or even no commentary, I find it useful and he can criticise to his heart's content. I just don't see what there was to criticise about Boris's words as presented, particularly since if he'd said the opposite that would have been worthy of criticism.
National polling not bad, state polling a load of donkey testicles.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com
The possibility that between now and 3/11 things will move for BIDEN is being given a probability of zero.
This is a major flaw because the chance of this is far from zero.
Upshot is perhaps the worst value even money shot in the world of betting for quite some time - the unpopular and divisive and behind in the polls Donald Trump to be reelected.
Just a comment on one barometer of economic activity - transport.
Starting with the good news - road traffic has returned to pre-Covid levels during the week and is actually higher at weekends with that led by increases in volumes of light and heavy commercial vehicles while car traffic oscillates around 90% of normal.
Cycling also remains buoyant but clear signs it's weather dependent with cycling numbers well down on days with poor weather.
Now, the not-so-good and that's public transport. Bus travel in London has recovered (with increases in capacity on the buses) to 50-60% of pre-Covid levels with buses outside London at around 50% of pre-Covid passenger numbers.
Railways remain the big problem (or barometer of the success of home working if you prefer). Passenger numbers remain about a third of pre-Covid levels with spikes at the weekend and on fine days as people head out to the coast but the normal weekday numbers remain well below where they were.
On the London Underground, passenger numbers on weekdays are about a third of where they were (though given the numbers who travel without paying the tubes are probably still crowded) and while the network is a little busier at weekends it's still well below normal.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/august_2016/questions_election_2016_white_house_watch_august_29_30_2016
New Statesman: Biden 85%, Trump 15%
Progress Campaign: Biden 85%, Trump 15%
Economist Biden 86%, Trump 14%
Five Thirty Eight: Biden 69%, Trump 30%
I think that all these models are doing similar things, and they broadly agree on what the current best estimate of the polling position is. The reason 538 is so much less bullish on Biden than the others is simply that they build in an increased level of uncertainty (in both directions).
Personally I think it's a mistake to try to model the uncertainty (beyond historical changes between now and the election). I prefer to look at the polling as one input - the most significant - and then to layer on top of that a political judgement as to whether this time it's going to be different,
The ludicrous "Bedlington Independents" stayed loyal.
Lost by one vote.
The weekly Economist/YouGov poll has Biden up 51-40.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/7kvpozbozh/econTabReport.pdf
Some of the highlights - men vote Biden 46-45 but women choose Biden 55-36. Trump leads by 48-46 in the $50-100k income group but is well behind in other groups.
The White vote is 48-45 to Trump but Biden has big leads in all the other ethnic groups.
The Party ID split is 41% Dem, 33% Ind and 26% Rep so perhaps an over-sampling of Democrats.
Investors Business Daily/TIPP has Biden ahead 49-4 but no crosstabs.
Rasmussen has Biden up by four which is least surprisingly the lowest lead among the pollsters but again no crosstabs.
The USA Today/Suffolk poll has Trump closing the gap but still down 50-43.
Finally, the Grinnell poll puts Biden up 49-41 and thoughtfully they have also published their crosstabs:
https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-09/Selzer Co GCNP 2219 Methodology.pdf
The sampling is 35% Democrat, 34% Republican and 25% Independent which is very different from Economist/YouGov.
Now that would be a crisis of legitimacy in anyone's book.
The 17-year-old boy, who cannot be named for legal reasons, is accused of joining the Feuerkrieg Division (FKD) while preparing to commit an act of terrorism last summer.
Birmingham Crown Court heard that he was admitted as a member of FKD after doing an online test where he was asked his opinion of Jews and fascism.
The boy allegedly wrote that Jewish people “must be eradicated”, called fascism “the pursuit of restoring the natural order” and said he wanted to “go out there and provoke” a race war.
The teenager, from Rugby in Warwickshire, passed the test and was added to private online chats between FKD members on the Wire encrypted communication app.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/teenager-neo-nazi-group-terror-attack-birmingham-crown-court-fkd-a9701591.html
That said, if the state polling is showing something totally different to the national polling my first guess would be that the state polling is wrong, rather than that the national polling is wrong or the Electoral College is wrong.
(Or the way RCP aggregates the polling is wrong, this is the kind of comparison where you really want to account for House Effects.)
There are three classes of State currently:
a) the majority - Biden is piling up votes in his strongholds and is doing disproportionately well in Trump's states though he has no prospect of winning any of them including the likes of Texas and Georgia.
b) the main battleground states - the swing to Biden is smaller perhaps 2-3% but that will be enough IF the votes come out in two months as they are now.
c) the "mavericks" - three in particular. Arizona, where Biden is doing well, North Carolina where Trump is doing better than average and may cling on and Minnesota which is Trump's only realistic hope of a gain.
But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.
The men-women split should be the most concerning for Trump, because women vote in greater numbers than men.
https://www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/
Those votes might never be counted.
Back before the midterms there was a whole bunch of discussion on exactly this very issue ("Dems need eight point lead to take the house"). And, guess what, it turned out that swings were much, much more uniform than people thought.
Don't forget that if you win by about 4 points, then you got around 10% more votes than your opponents. That's a massive margin in the real word.
So, I would personally keep my eye on the national vote share. Three points or more, Biden win. Two to three points, probable Biden win. One to two points, probable Trump win. One point or less, Trump win.
Why it matters: The total is believed to be the most ever raised by a presidential candidate in a single month,
Axios
But the report shows Wakefield recovering better than Leeds, Newport better than Cardiff, Mansfield better than Nottingham, Telford better than Birmingham and so on.
Whether than pattern continues we don't know yet.
https://twitter.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1301233654656622603
A neo-Nazi group that was led by a 13-year-old boy from Estonia should be banned as a terrorist organisation, the UK government has announced.
The current state of the country is Registered Democrats 40%, Registered Republicans 28%, Registered Independents 32%.
It is worth noting, for betting purposes, that in Florida the number of Registered Republicans is growing faster than the number of Registered Democrats. (That is one of the reasons I suspect it stays Red.)
I expect those that remain Registered Republicans to be more likely to vote that Registered Democrats.
(and yes, I know that the times are given in the title. Doesn't matter. 3/10 do it again)
a) Blade
b) Handle
(I thank you!)
The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.
Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.
If Biden takes NC he's almost certainly taking other states that will push him clear of a 15 vote margin of victory. Similarly Biden has plentiful paths to winning that don't involve taking NC.
He doesn't need to do any more.
Who knew!
Let me re-iterate!
The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!
That's right: STEAL!
Even if the only other car you can buy is a Lada.
They are recruiting like a Mo Fo.
It doesn't make it more convincing.
That works so long as everyone thinks it is fair. If you get wildly disproportionate results, then people will no longer think it fair, and if it happens repeatedly, then people will eventually say it doesn't work for them.
If the Dems got 60% of the vote, and the Republicans 40%, and President Trump won the electoral college. And then that happened again, and Ivanka won, then you would likely end up with secession. (See East Pakistan for what happens when people think the electoral system no longer works for them.)
(I would point out that the founding fathers did not actually settle on the electoral college as it is now, and they actually left it to states to decide how they would choose to send delegates.)
What?
Ipsos - Biden 47 (n/c) Trump 40 (n/c) - last week
YouGov - Biden 51 (+4) Trump 40 (-1) - last Friday
IPC/TIPP - Biden 49 (+1) Trump 41 (n/c) - last month
USC Dornsife - Biden 51 (-1) Trump 42 (n/c) - yesterday
Rasmussen - Biden 49 (+3) Trump 45 (n/c) - last week
Suffolk - Biden 50 (-3) Trump 43 (+2) - last month
Quinnipiac Biden 52 (n/c) Trump 42 (+5) - mid-July
Selzer - Biden 49 (+2) Trump 41 (-2) - since March
Opinium - Biden 54 (+2) Trump 39 (-1) - 7th July
Morning Consult Biden 51 (+1) Trump 43 (n/c) last week.
Utterly insane.
Let's deal with reality and not hypotheticals.
I know Cardiff well, and a very small minority of offices have welcomed staff back in any numbers. Our office is closed until at least January for any return in numbers. Its available for staff who can't work at home but to be frank is so desolate and unwelcoming, that no-one wants to be there and are more than happy to keep working remotely with occasional outdoor meet-ups with colleagues.