Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?
That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.
The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.
The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?
There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.
I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.
I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..
The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?
The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.
As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.
The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!
Sad!
It's the United States of America, not the American Union.
The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.
Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.
THREE MILLION more Americans voted for Hillary than for Trump!
Who knew!
Let me re-iterate!
The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!
That's right: STEAL!
You can repeat your previous post using even more capitals.
"Currently, 12 states do not allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, including the battlegrounds of Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
Trump will declare victory on election night and then America and its legal system will somehow have to decide whether it wants to remain a democracy or fold up.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
"Currently, 12 states do not allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, including the battlegrounds of Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
Trump will declare victory on election night and then America and its legal system will somehow have to decide whether it wants to remain a democracy or fold up.
Stakes could not be higher.
Yes, all polling now showing most Republicans will vote on the day but a plurality of Democrats will vote by mail.
Hence Trump will almost certainly be ahead on election night though Biden may overtake him in subsequent days as all the remaining mail in ballots are processed and counted.
'As returns came in on election night in Florida in 2018, the Republicans running for governor and the Senate took narrow leads in races that were too close to call.
Over the next days, their Democratic opponents began closing the gaps as mailed-in votes were counted. President Trump raised an alarm. Demanding that the races be called for the Republicans, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis, he tweeted falsely that “large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere,” adding: “An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/voting-election-day.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.
If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)
Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
It does look.like a significant portion of the removals of restrictions in northern towns last week and coming into effect today could end up.reversed, for varying reasons.
Looked and still look optimistic - Bolton (reversed), Burnley Looked OK, still look OK, but council opposition plus location should have prevailed - Trafford (reversed) Looked OK, still look OK - Stockport; Bradford ex. city, Keighley; Calderdale ex Halifax Looked OK, resurgence, quite likely reversal - Rossendale Looked OK, resurgence, possible later reversal - Hyndburn, Kirklees ex Dewsbury (possible reversal for Huddersfield only, eek)
Elsewhere, Leeds will likely at very least be an area of concern, if not more, next time out, as might Corby and Kettering. with Wirral as an outside chance. Further south, esp Dacorum, escapes for now, I think.
Newark and Sherwood look like a safe list removal, but I think they will be cautious removing too much else too fast.
Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
Pro-rata this is over 150k people a year.
Of course, it's unlikely to get to that rate but it conceivably could and this route has been proved viable.
What really worries me is that if this Government doesn't get a grip on it then eventually one will be elected that will - one that will do whatever is necessary, up to and including defying international norms and laws.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
I tend to agree. These things tend to naturally self correct.
Before CV19, I thought there was a reasonable chance that Trump would gain in the popular vote, but drop back in the electoral college.
The issue with the jungle primary is that it is run in JUNE and the election is in NOVEMBER
Low turn out, heavily marketed to Democrat party members, little salience among the non politically active, overseas voters unable to participate.
This is very different to eg the French system, which I don’t particularly like (because it ends up with non real choices like Le Pen vs AN Other) but is not an attempt to gerrymander the system
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.
That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party
It does look.like a significant portion of the removals of restrictions in northern towns last week and coming into effect today could end up.reversed, for varying reasons.
Looked and still look optimistic - Bolton (reversed), Burnley Looked OK, still look OK, but council opposition plus location should have prevailed - Trafford (reversed) Looked OK, still look OK - Stockport; Bradford ex. city, Keighley; Calderdale ex Halifax Looked OK, resurgence, quite likely reversal - Rossendale Looked OK, resurgence, possible later reversal - Hyndburn, Kirklees ex Dewsbury (possible reversal for Huddersfield only, eek)
Elsewhere, Leeds will likely at very least be an area of concern, if not more, next time out, as might Corby and Kettering. with Wirral as an outside chance. Further south, esp Dacorum, escapes for now, I think.
Newark and Sherwood look like a safe list removal, but I think they will be cautious removing too much else too fast.
I'm not sure which looks worse - public health attitudes in Lancashire or Andy Burnham's 'leadership'.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
New York - no riots
Los Angeles - no riots
Chicago - no riots
Houston - no riots
Phoenix - it's 130 degrees out there... no riots
Philadelphia - no riots
San Antonio / San Diego / Dallas / San Jose... no riots
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
New York - no riots
Los Angeles - no riots
Chicago - no riots
Houston - no riots
Phoenix - it's 130 degrees out there... no riots
Philadelphia - no riots
San Antonio / San Diego / Dallas / San Jose... no riots
I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?
That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.
The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.
The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?
There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.
I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.
I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..
The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?
The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.
As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.
The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!
Sad!
It's the United States of America, not the American Union.
The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.
Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.
Ooh mustn't question the founding fathers. Nobody with more than 2 brain cells to rub together gives a toss if the electoral college system was inscribed on stone tablets by god almighty, it's still shite.
Besides, your story about the motivation of the creators of the electoral college is wrong.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.
If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)
Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.
Pathetic LOSERS have "won" the Presidential election in our great, GREAT Republic FIVE times!
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
New York - no riots
Los Angeles - no riots
Chicago - no riots
Houston - no riots
Phoenix - it's 130 degrees out there... no riots
Philadelphia - no riots
San Antonio / San Diego / Dallas / San Jose... no riots
Is Portland in a permanent state of riot ?
Oddly enough the city far right and far left protestors keep descending upon to protest is the one having protests. How strange.
Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
I think, IIRC, Cyclefree's idea of flying them to a holding camp in the Falklands would be pretty popular.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.
That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party
It was a victory for an incumbent with a very long and largely moderate record in Congress. You can claim it is a victory for AOC if you like, but you have absolutely no evidence that her 'endorsement' made a jot of difference.
(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)
Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
I think, IIRC, Cyclefree's idea of flying them to a holding camp in the Falklands would be pretty popular.
I missed Cyclefree suggesting that, I'm very surprised she's the last person I'd expect to say that. But yes it'd work.
The issue with the jungle primary is that it is run in JUNE and the election is in NOVEMBER
Low turn out, heavily marketed to Democrat party members, little salience among the non politically active, overseas voters unable to participate.
This is very different to eg the French system, which I don’t particularly like (because it ends up with non real choices like Le Pen vs AN Other) but is not an attempt to gerrymander the system
It was always about being seen to do something, not actually doing something that would make a difference. The thought given to it stops with the announcements.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
As I said, that CNN meme is being shared all over middle class white Facebook according to my friends. For Trump people it's the proof that they needed about media cover ups about the severity of what's happening elsewhere in the country and what might come to there town/city/suburb.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
Surely, that can only be down to the extraordinary calming influence of President Donald Trump?
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
As I said, that CNN meme is being shared all over middle class white Facebook according to my friends. For Trump people it's the proof that they needed about media cover ups about the severity of what's happening elsewhere in the country and what might come to there town/city/suburb.
Back in June there were demonstrations and riots in Los Angeles. There was looting on Rodeo Drive.
In the last week, BLM tried to organise a march and got about 100 people to turn up.
If you are in Wisconsin or Portland, then there's a big problem. If you're in most cities in America, then there are no riots. There aren't even any peaceful demonstrations.
Now that would be a crisis of legitimacy in anyone's book.
Yes, there's a point at which the states with the people living in them start to ask, "is this United States of America thing something we want to be a part of".
That said, if the state polling is showing something totally different to the national polling my first guess would be that the state polling is wrong, rather than that the national polling is wrong or the Electoral College is wrong.
(Or the way RCP aggregates the polling is wrong, this is the kind of comparison where you really want to account for House Effects.)
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.
That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party
It was a victory for an incumbent with a very long and largely moderate record in Congress. You can claim it is a victory for AOC if you like, but you have absolutely no evidence that her 'endorsement' made a jot of difference.
(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)
The evidence is clear, in February Kennedy was on 39% with progressives to 36% for Markey, after AOC agreed to appear in Markey ads from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives. Markey then just grew it from there
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
That's the narrative, and it's one that - for example - Conrad Black and Andrew Sullivan have both written about in the last two weeks.
But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.
One problem with the polls last time was that in order to make the samples balanced, they compromised on randomness, which meant they failed to pick up on important movements.
A lot is being made of people overcompensating for the 2016 shock by overstating Trump's chances but I'm beginning to wonder whether a closer analogy is 2017 with Biden as May with regards to the polls.
As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.
More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.
Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:
"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.
What a hysterical dangerous (but with redeeming features sometimes) species we are.I would expect any aliens looking for new worlds to settle to flee like hell from our blue-green planet.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.
If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)
Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.
Pathetic LOSERS have "won" the Presidential election in our great, GREAT Republic FIVE times!
What a hysterical dangerous (but with redeeming features sometimes) species we are.I would expect any aliens looking for new worlds to settle to flee like hell from our blue-green planet.
You don’t get nearly so many sightings, nowadays, so maybe you are right. It is the aliens’ fault for always pitching up in remote parts of the central US.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
That's the narrative, and it's one that - for example - Conrad Black and Andrew Sullivan have both written about in the last two weeks.
But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.
One problem with the polls last time was that in order to make the samples balanced, they compromised on randomness, which meant they failed to pick up on important movements.
A lot is being made of people overcompensating for the 2016 shock by overstating Trump's chances but I'm beginning to wonder whether a closer analogy is 2017 with Biden as May with regards to the polls.
As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.
More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.
Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:
"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.
Not sure why they're targetting Ohio but not Georgia but the election will be decided in the other 8 states anyway.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.
If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)
Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.
Pathetic LOSERS have "won" the Presidential election in our great, GREAT Republic FIVE times!
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
As I said, that CNN meme is being shared all over middle class white Facebook according to my friends. For Trump people it's the proof that they needed about media cover ups about the severity of what's happening elsewhere in the country and what might come to there town/city/suburb.
Back in June there were demonstrations and riots in Los Angeles. There was looting on Rodeo Drive.
In the last week, BLM tried to organise a march and got about 100 people to turn up.
If you are in Wisconsin or Portland, then there's a big problem. If you're in most cities in America, then there are no riots. There aren't even any peaceful demonstrations.
Hmm, again, this is more a gut feeling based on what they've said - I get a sense that middle class whites are much less accepting of the narrative now than they were back in June. There are so many more questions being asked of the "peaceful protests" than there were in June, the liberal narrative on the Kenosha stuff doesn't seem to hold water, the full video clip is being shared across Facebook, the memes are all over the place in a way they weren't before. Middle class whites who are tired of being called racists by BLM types are looking at other options, most of my friends from the US are readying themselves for a Trump victory because they see their parents sharing all of these memes and videos, they weren't doing it in June.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
That's the narrative, and it's one that - for example - Conrad Black and Andrew Sullivan have both written about in the last two weeks.
But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.
One problem with the polls last time was that in order to make the samples balanced, they compromised on randomness, which meant they failed to pick up on important movements.
A lot is being made of people overcompensating for the 2016 shock by overstating Trump's chances but I'm beginning to wonder whether a closer analogy is 2017 with Biden as May with regards to the polls.
As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.
More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.
Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:
"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.
Last week Biden was going to lose because the dems were too confident, this week they're going to lose because they're running ads in swing states.
Maybe Biden will lose, who knows? But these kinds of arguments seem very weak.
America is so fucked. A bold experiment in democracy and law is coming to an end.
I have said before the social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb, and I do mean that. I not sure that social media and democracy are compatible, I coming round to the view that you can have one or the other but not both.
Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
I think, IIRC, Cyclefree's idea of flying them to a holding camp in the Falklands would be pretty popular.
I missed Cyclefree suggesting that, I'm very surprised she's the last person I'd expect to say that. But yes it'd work.
It was an off the wall and not entirely serious suggestion made to test what it is migrants claim to want ie if it is to be in British territory with the opportunity to work, why not send them to bits of territory away from the mainland (the IoM would do too) while asylum claims are processed.
I doubt it would work.
I have no solution.
I am feeling pissed off as thought was getting better but now feeling worse and will have to try and get GP appt tomorrow or go back to hospital. Bugger!
America is so fucked. A bold experiment in democracy and law is coming to an end.
I have said before the social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb, and I do mean that. I not sure that social media and democracy are compatible, I coming round to the view that you can have one or the other but not both.
I am not sure that social media and good government are compatible either.
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.
That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party
It was a victory for an incumbent with a very long and largely moderate record in Congress. You can claim it is a victory for AOC if you like, but you have absolutely no evidence that her 'endorsement' made a jot of difference.
(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)
The evidence is clear, in February Kennedy was on 39% with progressives to 36% for Markey, after AOC agreed to appear in Markey ads from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives. Markey then just grew it from there
Amongst Democratic primary voters Markey won the college educated left comfortably while Kennedy won the working class
None of that in any way proves that AOC had even the slightest impact on the vote.
Let me quote your own words back to you "from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives".
You can claim that as a stunning victory for progressives in... in... in keeping a popular incumbent Senator with a moderate voting record. But you have offered up so far the sum total of zero, zilch and nada evidence for it.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?
That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.
The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.
The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?
There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.
I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.
I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..
The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?
The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.
As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.
The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!
Sad!
It's the United States of America, not the American Union.
The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.
Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.
Ooh mustn't question the founding fathers. Nobody with more than 2 brain cells to rub together gives a toss if the electoral college system was inscribed on stone tablets by god almighty, it's still shite.
Besides, your story about the motivation of the creators of the electoral college is wrong.
Your alternative is to change the US Constitution.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
That's the narrative, and it's one that - for example - Conrad Black and Andrew Sullivan have both written about in the last two weeks.
But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.
One problem with the polls last time was that in order to make the samples balanced, they compromised on randomness, which meant they failed to pick up on important movements.
A lot is being made of people overcompensating for the 2016 shock by overstating Trump's chances but I'm beginning to wonder whether a closer analogy is 2017 with Biden as May with regards to the polls.
As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.
More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.
Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:
"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.
Ultimately, though, Biden's national polling numbers aren't changing.
Pundits and stories and narrative have very little predictive power compared to hard numbers.
America is so fucked. A bold experiment in democracy and law is coming to an end.
I have said before the social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb, and I do mean that. I not sure that social media and democracy are compatible, I coming round to the view that you can have one or the other but not both.
They are but it makes politics far more tribal not just in the US but here too, though if you follow the right people you can still get breaking news and some informative analysis and information on twitter
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
That's the narrative, and it's one that - for example - Conrad Black and Andrew Sullivan have both written about in the last two weeks.
But I'm a numbers rather than a narrative kind of guy. Let's see if voters are actually changing.
One problem with the polls last time was that in order to make the samples balanced, they compromised on randomness, which meant they failed to pick up on important movements.
A lot is being made of people overcompensating for the 2016 shock by overstating Trump's chances but I'm beginning to wonder whether a closer analogy is 2017 with Biden as May with regards to the polls.
As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.
More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.
Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:
"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.
That sounds like a competently managed campaign that is taking nothing for granted.
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.
If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)
Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.
Pathetic LOSERS have "won" the Presidential election in our great, GREAT Republic FIVE times!
There is a lot of evidence emerging that the American people may be tiring of Trump’s comportment. His character might yet be his undoing. If so, he has clearly decided to go down as himself. He is, sadly, as authentic as leaders come. He really is that awful.
Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
I think, IIRC, Cyclefree's idea of flying them to a holding camp in the Falklands would be pretty popular.
I missed Cyclefree suggesting that, I'm very surprised she's the last person I'd expect to say that. But yes it'd work.
It was an off the wall and not entirely serious suggestion made to test what it is migrants claim to want ie if it is to be in British territory with the opportunity to work, why not send them to bits of territory away from the mainland (the IoM would do too) while asylum claims are processed.
I doubt it would work.
I have no solution.
I am feeling pissed off as thought was getting better but now feeling worse and will have to try and get GP appt tomorrow or go back to hospital. Bugger!
Over 400 migrants landed today.. almost 10% of the record for the whole year.
Utterly insane.
I don't know how it can possibly be stopped except for immediate deportation, that's how the Aussies dealt with it. But I don't think that would be a goer here.
I think, IIRC, Cyclefree's idea of flying them to a holding camp in the Falklands would be pretty popular.
I missed Cyclefree suggesting that, I'm very surprised she's the last person I'd expect to say that. But yes it'd work.
It was an off the wall and not entirely serious suggestion made to test what it is migrants claim to want ie if it is to be in British territory with the opportunity to work, why not send them to bits of territory away from the mainland (the IoM would do too) while asylum claims are processed.
I doubt it would work.
I have no solution.
I am feeling pissed off as thought was getting better but now feeling worse and will have to try and get GP appt tomorrow or go back to hospital. Bugger!
Hope you feel better soon.
Hope your daughter's premises is working well too and the last month helped her.
I've been talking to friends in the US and they all say the same thing, Biden leads the polls but the feeling on the ground is that Trump has the momentum because he's been gifted a stronger hand by the riots and the Dems lack of condemnation of their own side and the very blatant media bias. This is among all likely Dem voters as well.
The CNN graphic of "Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" in front of burning buildings has become a recruiting tool for Trump among middle class suburban whites, it's team Trump saying "we told you, they'll lie to your face and expect you to accept it" and it's working for them among parents of my friends who were previously in the Dem column.
Absolute nonsense. Biden made a speech on 2nd June this year where he was very clear he was against all this stuff so this can't be true.
He doesn't need to do any more.
The 2nd of June was ages ago and the situation is worse now than it was then. The young won't be swayed, but I think their parents are at the moment. That's just my gut feeling based on what my US based friends are saying, we'll see how that plays out over the next few weeks.
In what way is it worse? There are massively fewer riots now than at the start of June.
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
Surely, that can only be down to the extraordinary calming influence of President Donald Trump?
Yep. Try as he might to recreate the Civil War most are not having it. They just want to watch the ball game and over eat in peace and quiet.
I feel like this is 2019 GE repeated. The Tories should have been 1.1 or so to win a majority but they weren't from recollection, people were convinced - including me, I am guilty - of thinking 2017 might be repeated. Is there a chance of that here?
That's what I've been saying for a long time. Trump is America's Corbyn and people are making the same mistakes in logic now as they were in 2019.
The media were living in a bubble in 2016 and their response since then has been largely to continue living in the same bubble. People who tried to report from outside it, like Andrew Sullivan, have been excommunicated.
The bubble that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump?
There's absolutely no evidence that Clinton was a more popular candidate than Trump...oh.
I thought we'd got beyond the 'Clinton really won', shtick.
I mean, if we actually want Trump to lose this time..
The point was about popularity. Would you say the 2016 vote indicated Clinton was more popular, less popular or about as popular as Trump in the USA?
The point was about the bubble thinking that Clinton was more popular than Trump such that her victory was a sure thing.
As it turned out she wasn't popular enough to win the electoral college - which is where it counts.
The ELECTORAL KINDERGARTEN (as it should be called!) is just an unfair, outdated, crappy means for the popular vote LOSER to STEAL the White House!
Sad!
It's the United States of America, not the American Union.
The founding fathers designed the electoral college so that the President would command a weighted majority of all the states taken together rather than just stacking up votes in certain places to achieve a national "popular" win, but at the risk of splintering the states apart as a consequence.
Rather than quibbling about the fact Hillary squeaked the popular vote by barely 2% they'd do better to ask why she didn't appeal across the country.
Ooh mustn't question the founding fathers. Nobody with more than 2 brain cells to rub together gives a toss if the electoral college system was inscribed on stone tablets by god almighty, it's still shite.
Besides, your story about the motivation of the creators of the electoral college is wrong.
Your alternative is to change the US Constitution.
Remind me how that's done?
Remind me of how your comment has any relevance whatsoever to what I wrote?
You falsely invoke the bloody founding fathers to defend the indefensible, and now you want to change the subject.
Well, if life would be totally obliterated by Biden's election, the other effects seem somewhat superfluous.
In an American context “life” refers to abortion.
Is Trump a noted pro-Lifer?
If you are talking about belief then I think that's a question to which there is no answer as indeed is any other such question one can ask of him. He's an egoist (full stop)
When the voters of Massachusetts choose to stick with the same Senator they've had for the last two decades, it shows how the Democrats have changed...
What?
Markey won the primary because of AOC's endorsement and the far left backing him, the Republicans will now exploit that against him in November in the general election and Trump will also now use it to show how the Democrats have their own Momentum like group gaining control Biden will not be able to hold back.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
You're right, he was a Representative before that. The point is that he's been an elected Democratic Representative for the State of Massachusetts since 1976.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
Kennedy was leading the polls until AOC endorsed Markey, then the left all swung behind him and he took the lead and held on to win the Democratic nomination.
That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party
It was a victory for an incumbent with a very long and largely moderate record in Congress. You can claim it is a victory for AOC if you like, but you have absolutely no evidence that her 'endorsement' made a jot of difference.
(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)
The evidence is clear, in February Kennedy was on 39% with progressives to 36% for Markey, after AOC agreed to appear in Markey ads from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives. Markey then just grew it from there
Amongst Democratic primary voters Markey won the college educated left comfortably while Kennedy won the working class
None of that in any way proves that AOC had even the slightest impact on the vote.
Let me quote your own words back to you "from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives".
You can claim that as a stunning victory for progressives in... in... in keeping a popular incumbent Senator with a moderate voting record. But you have offered up so far the sum total of zero, zilch and nada evidence for it.
The main reason he won those groups was his support from AOC and the far left, that is what Trump was going on about and that is what the GOP will hammer home in Massachussetts and nationwide until November, the Trojan horse that is Biden and Markey with the far left inside just waiting to pounce as soon as the Democrats get into power
America is so fucked. A bold experiment in democracy and law is coming to an end.
I have said before the social media is the worst invention since the atomic bomb, and I do mean that. I not sure that social media and democracy are compatible, I coming round to the view that you can have one or the other but not both.
They are but it makes politics far more tribal not just in the US but here too, though if you follow the right people you can still get breaking news and some informative analysis and information on twitter
I don't think that's true. I follow mostly very sensible people and serious news sources, and frankly I think they are also dumbing down and becoming more sensationalist in order to get attention amongst the hundreds of millions of screeching eejits. The instant reaction, low information, and short messages of social media are all detrimental to informing people and promoting good discussion. Actors with good intent on a bad platform do not counterweight the millions of people trying to cause trouble. Wrestling pigs does not work.
I couldn't help but notice how few MPs were back at their workplace at lunchtime for PMQs.
Perhaps they should lead by example and travel to their offices in Westminster, travelling by tube.
Most MPs are back at Westminster but obviously social distancing means they cannot all be at PMQs at once now, the civil service has a far higher level of WFH full time
Comments
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1301223852962385921
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1301227725949108225
I note that while Hillary managed to win the PV by 3% yet lose the EV, that is historically very unusual. Al Gore was the last to win the PV yet lose the EV, but that was a much closer affair, with the infamous Florida hanging chads swinging it. Gore was 0.5% ahead on the PV. Other than that it is a long way back.
Maybe the votes have shifted so that it is a more frequent occurance, but maybe normality will return. Biden is much more acceptable to Blue collar America.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/voting-election-day.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Trump will declare victory on election night and then America and its legal system will somehow have to decide whether it wants to remain a democracy or fold up.
Stakes could not be higher.
Plus Markey has only been a Senator since 2013
We couldn't fuck this up harder if we tried
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
Hence Trump will almost certainly be ahead on election night though Biden may overtake him in subsequent days as all the remaining mail in ballots are processed and counted.
'As returns came in on election night in Florida in 2018, the Republicans running for governor and the Senate took narrow leads in races that were too close to call.
Over the next days, their Democratic opponents began closing the gaps as mailed-in votes were counted. President Trump raised an alarm. Demanding that the races be called for the Republicans, Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis, he tweeted falsely that “large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere,” adding: “An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/voting-election-day.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Winning the PV but losing the EC is unusual ... and yet it's happened to the Democrats in 40% of the Presidential elections so far this century.
If it happens again this time, the rate will be 50% (!)
Having said that, the above polls look very Biden-friendly indeed. Only two of the ten represent a big shift in Trump's favour, and in only one of them is an EC loss a serious danger.
That's forty four years.
Claiming that the Democrats have changed because they've picked an incumbent who has represented them in Congress for close to half a century is... not the greatest argument.
Looked and still look optimistic - Bolton (reversed), Burnley
Looked OK, still look OK, but council opposition plus location should have prevailed - Trafford (reversed)
Looked OK, still look OK - Stockport; Bradford ex. city, Keighley; Calderdale ex Halifax
Looked OK, resurgence, quite likely reversal - Rossendale
Looked OK, resurgence, possible later reversal - Hyndburn, Kirklees ex Dewsbury (possible reversal for Huddersfield only, eek)
Elsewhere, Leeds will likely at very least be an area of concern, if not more, next time out, as might Corby and Kettering. with Wirral as an outside chance. Further south, esp Dacorum, escapes for now, I think.
Newark and Sherwood look like a safe list removal, but I think they will be cautious removing too much else too fast.
"The Assistant: The most gripping and original psychological thriller of 2020!
Paperback – 6 Aug. 2020
by S. K. Tremayne"
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Assistant-S-K-Tremayne/dp/0008309558
Of course, it's unlikely to get to that rate but it conceivably could and this route has been proved viable.
What really worries me is that if this Government doesn't get a grip on it then eventually one will be elected that will - one that will do whatever is necessary, up to and including defying international norms and laws.
Before CV19, I thought there was a reasonable chance that Trump would gain in the popular vote, but drop back in the electoral college.
The issue with the jungle primary is that it is run in JUNE and the election is in NOVEMBER
Low turn out, heavily marketed to Democrat party members, little salience among the non politically active, overseas voters unable to participate.
This is very different to eg the French system, which I don’t particularly like (because it ends up with non real choices like Le Pen vs AN Other) but is not an attempt to gerrymander the system
In June, there were riots across the US. I don't think there have been any riots in the last week in any of the ten largest cities in the US.
It's changed from a nationwide protest, to serious but much more local.
That is the point, last night was less Markey's victory than a victory for AOC and the twitterati far left over moderates within the Democratic Party
- no riots
Los Angeles
- no riots
Chicago
- no riots
Houston
- no riots
Phoenix
- it's 130 degrees out there... no riots
Philadelphia
- no riots
San Antonio / San Diego / Dallas / San Jose... no riots
Besides, your story about the motivation of the creators of the electoral college is wrong.
Who knew!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote
1824
1876
1888
2000
2016
In all FOUR since 1876, the PATHETIC LOSER has been a REPUBLICAN!
Sad!
(Indeed, of the 17 candidates endorsed in House Primaries by the left wing loonies of AOC, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, and Bernie Sanders, would you like to guess how many won?)
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1270621968535076867
In the last week, BLM tried to organise a march and got about 100 people to turn up.
If you are in Wisconsin or Portland, then there's a big problem. If you're in most cities in America, then there are no riots. There aren't even any peaceful demonstrations.
https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/SenatePrimaryAug2020Toplines8-12.pdf
Amongst Democratic primary voters Markey won the college educated left comfortably while Kennedy won the working class
As @MaxPB has pointed out, plus others such as Andrew Sullivan and Conrad Black, people do not like the violence and the fear it is coming to a town near you and it is starting to become a major issue. @rcs1000 pointed out Republican registrations in Florida are running ahead of the Democrats but my understanding is the Republicans have eroded the Democrat's lead since 2016 in PA as well, which also bodes ill for Biden.
More to the point, both the campaign's actions and what is being seen on the ground doesn't seem to match the polls. Trump has just opened an office in Minnesota and he has visited New Hampshire.
Trump is repeatedly banging the drum linking Biden with the violence and Biden is now running adverts condemning the violence. This is where the NY Times states about the adverts:
"The Biden campaign said the ad would air nationally on cable television and in local markets in nine battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
That doesn't sound like a campaign that is confident it is high single digits ahead.
Calling the PM “stupid” is just an insult without value
Maybe Biden will lose, who knows? But these kinds of arguments seem very weak.
I doubt it would work.
I have no solution.
I am feeling pissed off as thought was getting better but now feeling worse and will have to try and get GP appt tomorrow or go back to hospital. Bugger!
Let me quote your own words back to you "from July Markey led by 40% to 38% as better representing progressives".
You can claim that as a stunning victory for progressives in... in... in keeping a popular incumbent Senator with a moderate voting record. But you have offered up so far the sum total of zero, zilch and nada evidence for it.
Remind me how that's done?
Pundits and stories and narrative have very little predictive power compared to hard numbers.
Precisely what Hillary should have done.
Did someone tell you the USA contained a number of colonists' daughters who needed rescuing from their virginity?
https://capx.co/how-donald-trump-has-rewritten-the-rules-of-presidential-rhetoric/
Perhaps they should lead by example and travel to their offices in Westminster, travelling by tube.
Hope your daughter's premises is working well too and the last month helped her.
From that list, can you identify all the u-turns which resulted from the unpredictable behaviour of the virus?
You falsely invoke the bloody founding fathers to defend the indefensible, and now you want to change the subject.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/massachusetts-2020-senator-markey-takes-lead-in-senate-primary-over-congressman-kennedy
The main reason he won those groups was his support from AOC and the far left, that is what Trump was going on about and that is what the GOP will hammer home in Massachussetts and nationwide until November, the Trojan horse that is Biden and Markey with the far left inside just waiting to pounce as soon as the Democrats get into power
In the past before he stood for the Republicans? No, he was pro-choice. In his own words "very pro choice".
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/trump-in-1999-i-am-very-pro-choice-480297539914