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I was late to Tesla, May and June this year.CorrectHorseBattery said:I am so glad I got into Apple in 2011 and Tesla in 2016
Even so, I've doubled my investment.0 -
Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.
Why even take the risk is what I want to know0 -
A nice touch to the Aral sea disaster. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the retreating sea made a remote island in the sea not quite so remote. You could walk there....CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
It turned out that it had been the site of a secret germ warfare *factory*, that, in defiance of the treaties signed had manufactured and stored Anthrax. Several metric tons of it!
Which were then left there when the Soviet Union folded.....0 -
Deputy Editor of a political blog rich in fact.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You must be rich!TheScreamingEagles said:
JCL.CorrectHorseBattery said:I am so glad I got into Apple in 2011 and Tesla in 2016
I bought into Apple way before that.1 -
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I'm a man of the people, I grew up on a large estate.kle4 said:
Deputy Editor of a political blog rich in fact.CorrectHorseBattery said:
You must be rich!TheScreamingEagles said:
JCL.CorrectHorseBattery said:I am so glad I got into Apple in 2011 and Tesla in 2016
I bought into Apple way before that.1 -
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352
Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour0 -
Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.
The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.0 -
With respect why are you so exercised by Austria which is also quarantined by NorwayIanB2 said:Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.
The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.0 -
See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine0
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See my comments earlier about the SoSFsitC.Casino_Royale said:
So is Hampshire, or London, or Wales, or Northern Ireland. Scotland is distinctly represented by its 59 MPs representing Scottish interests and through having the SoS for Scotland in the cabinet too.Carnyx said:
In which it is numerically swamped, and has no distinct representation as a whole, as another has mentioned already today.Casino_Royale said:
The United Kingdom Parliament.Carnyx said:
Formal representation? At what level, please?Casino_Royale said:
Scotland does have formal representation in the UK, and it does have votes. Just as England does too.FF43 said:
Scotland doesn't have formal representation in the UK. It doesn't have a vote. Any decision that isn't devolved to Holyrood is taken by the UK government alone in its interest. This is different from EU member states who have a formal vote and in practice a near veto on decisions made. If Scotland leaves the UK then obviously its informal influence on the affairs of what remains of the old United Kingdom also goes. However that influence isn't massive right now because of the difference in size of Scotland compared with England.Casino_Royale said:
This is poppycock, sorry.FF43 said:
Speaking as one of the more unionists of Scots, I have to accept that independence has real upsides to offset the downsides, while Brexit is entirely downside.Mexicanpete said:
I say this with a heavy heart. It is over BigG. Gordon Brown saved the day in 2014 and Labour have subsequently been punished for it. Labour no longer have the support in Scotland or motivation to do that again.
It should have been OK for thirty years, but Cameron's vanity EU referendum changed that.
Like Brexit, Scottish Independence is no longer about economic benefit. The heart will rule the head.
First on economics. Scotland would gain access to the European Single Market, set against the bigger loss of the UK market. Brexit is all loss.
Scotland would gain formal influence in Europe through having a vote and other representation. We can see how valuable that has been to Ireland in achieving its desired outcomes. Scotland has no formal influence in the UK (it doesn't have representation as a country) and limited actual influence due to the relative dominance of England. Brexit means a loss of influence internationally for the UK as whole.
Scotland would gain protection by being a member of the European Union thanks to independent rules being applied objectively by the ECJ. Governance in the UK is at the whim of a Downing Street government that doesn't protect Scotland's interest.
The sovereignty win of becoming an independent state is transformationally greater than leaving a multinational body, even an important one like the European Union
Scotland has *more* influence in the UK than it would have in the EU (where it'd be an even smaller fish and overruled by QMV on most issues). In the UK it has almost 10% of all UK MPs, each of which have the exact same rights and privileges as any other MP - including all the English ones. Barely 10 years ago Scots were both the PM and the Chancellor, and during the coalition Chief Secretary of the Treasury, with direct representation on the security council of the UN, the G7/8 and the G20. None of which Scotland could ever do again post-independence.
It's true at the moment as Scotland has chosen to elect largely separatist MPs. It thus has very limited representation in the UK Government as a whole. It's in this sense a feedback loop as the very election of the nationalist MPs helps create the grievances they rail against and rely upon to advance their agenda.
All this pre-dated Brexit and goes back to the 2015GE and (crucially) the politics of the preceding 18 months when independence garnered a huge head of steam.
Brexit was (and is) a convenient stick to beat the Union with but the roots run deeper. Far deeper.
BTW I am a supporters of unions (plural), which can be bigger than the sum of their parts. I do accept however there a real wins for Scotland if it becomes independent (against bigger losses IMO). Unlike Brexit, which has no real upsides at all and is a big mistake, albeit one we are committed to.
You repeating this (along with most of the rest of your previous post, without addressing the points in my response) doesn't make it true.
The recent history of Scottish (and Welsh and sometimes NIrish) governments' treatment by the current and previous Conservative governments is not a happy one.
And the Sec of State for Scotland is no longer Scotland's voice within the cabinet - but the Whitehall government's voice within Scotland.
Of course, if you don't feel "British" at all - I do - then we have a different problem. Which is what this all hinges on really, isn't it?0 -
With the whole quarantine thing, what's the point in advising of it in advance of it coming into effect, thereby giving everyone the opportunity to try and get home before the deadline and avoid having to quarantine?
If we think people need to quarantine when returning from a country, kick it in immediately. It's not the wacky races. The virus doesn't suddenly wake up at a certain time set by the government.0 -
Agreed, I'm in for the long haul and expect the shares to go up significantly over the years.Philip_Thompson said:On the subject of Tesla I wouldn't invest at current prices but nor would I assume they're necessarily overvalued either. As far as I can tell Tesla have a few significant advantages over their rivals that mean in the future they could make more earnings relative to their market share.
- More proprietary technology.
- Vertical integration
- Batteries
- They're not just a car manufacturer anymore. They're diversifying into the energy industry as a whole.
- They're constantly innovating so like their powerwalls you own a share of any future Tesla subsidiaries without them requiring to sell more cars.
The 'Battery Day' event next month has been hyped by Tesla fans, rather than Elon Musk himself, and I wonder whether it can live up to that. The shares could take a hit unless he really has something spectacular to announce.
Nevertheless, Tesla is years ahead of the legacy automakers including Audi and Jaguar.
I'm not a believer in the self driving 'Autopilot' software myself, but Tesla is ahead there too - every Tesla on the road provides data to help develop this.
Solar panels and roof tiles shouldn't be forgotten or the 'Autobidder' software which could enable people who own his cars and solar panels to sell power to others.
Tesla's mission is 'to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.'
If Tesla's new batteries are a significant advance and he can get enough for Tesla's own use, I can see them licencing or selling batteries to other manufacturers.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/mission-tesla
1 - More proprietary technology.
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"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/0 -
To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
“roll model” indeed.
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It’s yet another increasingly obvious and damaging mistake by HMGBig_G_NorthWales said:
With respect why are you so exercised by Austria which is also quarantined by NorwayIanB2 said:Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.
The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.0 -
He wrote it on a mobile device, clearly it was an autocorrect mistake.IanB2 said:
To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
“roll model” indeed.
But David already acknowledged his typo.
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1300863594523963397?s=211 -
The kids are right - they only got one word wrong - it should read 'and', not 'or'Malmesbury said:
A nice touch to the Aral sea disaster. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the retreating sea made a remote island in the sea not quite so remote. You could walk there....CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
It turned out that it had been the site of a secret germ warfare *factory*, that, in defiance of the treaties signed had manufactured and stored Anthrax. Several metric tons of it!
Which were then left there when the Soviet Union folded.....1 -
Some might even go as far as to say that Osborne was a 'Near-Perfect Chancellor'.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's utter nonsense, complete garbage. There was no 'nice growth', there was an artificial and unsustainable slight boost from the ludicrously high and unsustainable overspend - after all, any fool, even Gordon Brown, can get a bit of temporary economic activity going by throwing zillions around. What Brown 'gifted' Osborne was the worst fiscal position in the whole of Europe other than Greece; what Osborne achieved was correcting that whilst keeping unemployment extremely low and growth reasonable - it really was a spectacular success.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But he's right, he killed off the nice growth Brown gifted him and almost put us into another recessionRichard_Nabavi said:
I do love this utterly bonkers mantra.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Osborne did not understand economics and flatlined the recovery inherited from Labour.. ..1 -
And Norway ?IanB2 said:
It’s yet another increasingly obvious and damaging mistake by HMGBig_G_NorthWales said:
With respect why are you so exercised by Austria which is also quarantined by NorwayIanB2 said:Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.
The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.0 -
Because its not a big deal.CorrectHorseBattery said:Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.
Why even take the risk is what I want to know0 -
2016 Trump voter: No President has ruined the country like he has
A good mix of ordinary Americans’ sentiments here:
https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/09/01/suburban-women-trump-panel-camerota-newday-vpx.cnn0 -
What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?0
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I think we all start moving to the places where the rate's lower than ours. Or something?nichomar said:What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?
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Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new yearnichomar said:What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?
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That’s a long time to be locked up, four months!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new yearnichomar said:What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?
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That's not what any of the projections sayPhilip_Thompson said:
Because its not a big deal.CorrectHorseBattery said:Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.
Why even take the risk is what I want to know0 -
You mean spends. He hasn't stopped.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352
Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour
And for some it goes beyond just attacking New Labour. We have a sitting Labour MP who said on social media in 2015 that she would celebrate the death of Tony Blair. She issued an apology only when found out four years later. I doubt if it was sincere, more done for form's sake as she was by then standing as a parliamentary candidate.
But yes, there was a lot of good stuff, and while we may have been a bit disappointed by it at the time, it looks a lot better when measured against what came afterwards.0 -
I disagree - I've heard more out of him so far than I heard out of Carlaw in his entire leadership tenure. Even the increased volume of criticism for him I think tells a story. However, he won't get anywhere just by turning up the volume of his attacks on the SNP.malcolmg said:
Ross is another dumpling, so far everything he has promoted for Scotland he has already voted to have banned from Westminster. He is a clown.Luckyguy1983 said:
It says that they have succeeded in making themselves interchangeable with 'Scotland'. So any attack on how horrible, pervy, bullying, incompetent, venal or anything else they are, has become an attack on Scotland and Scots. That's why, whilst well intentioned, Douglas Ross's idea of a 'relentless war on the SNP' won't work, for the time being, in my opinion. Instead, opponents of the SNP need to try, however away with the fairies it seems, to envisage a Scotland after the SNP, and be relentless in their attempts to inspire people about that vision.Gallowgate said:The fact that the SNP appear to be a bunch of tw*ts and yet are still miles ahead in the polls just says it all.
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That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.Big_G_NorthWales said:See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine
Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)
In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.0 -
14 day quarantine until the new year and then reviewnichomar said:
That’s a long time to be locked up, four months!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new yearnichomar said:What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?
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I guess I'm the only one here who advocates Socialism AND Extinction.kle4 said:
Stunning revelation.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.0 -
I hate the way Twitter doesn't allow you to edit.TheScreamingEagles said:
He wrote it on a mobile device, clearly it was an autocorrect mistake.IanB2 said:
To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
“roll model” indeed.
But David already acknowledged his typo.
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1300863594523963397?s=210 -
Sadly I agree and I have travelled extensively worldwide for the last 15 years so am so grateful as it is unlikely my wife and I will ever fly againBlack_Rook said:
That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.Big_G_NorthWales said:See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine
Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)
In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.0 -
Um, yep.SandyRentool said:
I guess I'm the only one here who advocates Socialism AND Extinction.kle4 said:
Stunning revelation.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.2 -
Why didn't we just quarantine every country0
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I do not have that problem as I do not contribute to twitterCasino_Royale said:
I hate the way Twitter doesn't allow you to edit.TheScreamingEagles said:
He wrote it on a mobile device, clearly it was an autocorrect mistake.IanB2 said:
To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
“roll model” indeed.
But David already acknowledged his typo.
https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1300863594523963397?s=21
David Cameron was so right all those years ago1 -
I'd have thought being attacked by Aaron Bastani would be considered high praise.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352
Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour1 -
I'm with you. Until the workers own the means of production we'll never get rid of all those fucking whales.SandyRentool said:
I guess I'm the only one here who advocates Socialism AND Extinction.kle4 said:
Stunning revelation.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.4 -
Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.1 -
Why stop at "spectacular success"? Surely Osborne's performance deserves being described as "world beating", as used in for example in "world beating test and trace system". Your claims similarly have a similar degree of veracity as those made by the government about our Covid-19 response.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's utter nonsense, complete garbage. There was no 'nice growth', there was an artificial and unsustainable slight boost from the ludicrously high and unsustainable overspend - after all, any fool, even Gordon Brown, can get a bit of temporary economic activity going by throwing zillions around. What Brown 'gifted' Osborne was the worst fiscal position in the whole of Europe other than Greece; what Osborne achieved was correcting that whilst keeping unemployment extremely low and growth reasonable - it really was a spectacular success.CorrectHorseBattery said:
But he's right, he killed off the nice growth Brown gifted him and almost put us into another recessionRichard_Nabavi said:
I do love this utterly bonkers mantra.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Osborne did not understand economics and flatlined the recovery inherited from Labour.. ..0 -
People will still come out to Spain if they can handle the quarantine, family being the biggest driver or second property as long as the planes fly. They will be perfectly safe, apart from the journey, I’m yet to know personally of a single case of covid no does anyone else I know. The rise is frightening though and I hope those who do come stick to the rules. The schools and universities going back will raise the infection rates even higher so it will be a while before rates drop significantly.Black_Rook said:
That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.Big_G_NorthWales said:See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine
Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)
In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8686289/Ex-Australian-PM-Tony-Abbott-lashes-coronavirus-lockdown-rules.html
And so he lost the Daily Mail0 -
Do you think Labour would actually win by 10-15 points though? In my mind the best is a minority GovernmentCasino_Royale said:
Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.0 -
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.2 -
Also where does 10-15 point lead come from? Labour into the 50s? Tories into the 30s?0
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The problem is, as NZ has discovered, is making it water or airtight.CorrectHorseBattery said:Why didn't we just quarantine every country
The other problem is NZ has lost its tourism income on which so many of its businesses depend. It's all very well Jacinda Ardern encouraging the Kiwis to visit their own country but there's only 6 million or so of them whereas 11.3 million visitors from abroad support nearly 200,000 local jobs and provide about 10% of the country's GDP.
Our figures won't be so dramatic but the absence of tourists won't be entirely offset by British people staying at home,0 -
I can't see how he gets that lucky twice. He almost certainly won't win any new states. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan then (assuming he holds everything else) Wisconsin would decide the election.Alistair said:
Yes, the way Trump wins is 2016 to the max. His vote efficiency was supreme in 2016, it is not implausible to improve on that further to universe beating levels. Biden gets close all across traditionally red state but not over the line which gives a huge pop lead but Trump still edges all the stated he held in 2016.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Ironically, it's potentially good news for Trump in a sense if his leads in states that aren't going to be pivotal are fairly small as it suggests his vote nationally is efficiently distributed. Unless it's a blow-out election, Trump will win Montana anyway and it makes no difference if that's by a single or double figure margin. Equally, it's potentially bad news for Biden - there's no benefit in losing Montana marginally rather than massively and he'd rather have those votes in Michigan.DAlexander said:
Trump won Montana by over 20% last time.HYUFD said:
Biden could do with some closer polling margins in California and New York whilst retaining a national lead. There does look to be some risk he's distributing his vote inefficiently.
I mean, I get that a close poll in Montana could mean Biden is getting an 8% swing across the country, but the national polls don't support that (although they show him in a decent position).
Boom. Trump second term.1 -
And of course we lose EHIC in 4 months time. Ironic if you think about it that the price of giving that 350m a week to the NHS was a 96% reduction in the number of countries in which we are entitled to free medical care.Black_Rook said:
That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.Big_G_NorthWales said:See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine
Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)
In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.0 -
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.1 -
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You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?rottenborough said:
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.0 -
This is a typical example of wet New Labour. Kids don't want to receive some savings when they reach 18 which they can use as they see fit. No, what they really want is to be coming of age in a socialist republic.Casino_Royale said:
I'd have thought being attacked by Aaron Bastani would be considered high praise.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352
Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour0 -
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I wouldn't rule out Trump flipping Minnesota or perhaps New Hampshire but they looks the only serious prospects.dodrade said:
I can't see how he gets that lucky twice. He almost certainly won't win any new states. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan then (assuming he holds everything else) Wisconsin would decide the election.
The Montana poll (haven't seen it or the crosstabs) would fit into my model of Biden doing better in both his strongholds and in Trump's strongholds but less well in the marginal states.
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That will be the real killer to a large part of the travel industry if you can’t get travel insurance and EHIC cards are not replaced with something.IshmaelZ said:
And of course we lose EHIC in 4 months time. Ironic if you think about it that the price of giving that 350m a week to the NHS was a 96% reduction in the number of countries in which we are entitled to free medical care.Black_Rook said:
That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.Big_G_NorthWales said:See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine
Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)
In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.1 -
Here's a thought experiment.
Based on the current membership of SCOTUS, how do we think a case similar to Bush v. Gore turns out this autumn?
I reckon the Chief Justice could be the swing vote.
Agree or disagree?0 -
It'll be masks everywhere before the end of the year, and there's a live risk we'll be stuck with those forever - along with God alone knows what else occurs to the medical profession. Gloves. Goggles. Sin taxes, followed by the creeping prohibition of food not deemed healthy enough. And so on, and so forth.rottenborough said:
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.1 -
It'*s (the main?) part of the reason Guernsey is now nigh on 3 months without a single caseBig_G_NorthWales said:
Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new yearnichomar said:What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?
*In case the grammar punctuation police try to argue that a misplaced apostrophe invalidates an entire argument (to which they have no response).0 -
That's how you end up losing a packet.dodrade said:
I can't see how he gets that lucky twice. He almost certainly won't win any new states. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan then (assuming he holds everything else) Wisconsin would decide the election.Alistair said:
Yes, the way Trump wins is 2016 to the max. His vote efficiency was supreme in 2016, it is not implausible to improve on that further to universe beating levels. Biden gets close all across traditionally red state but not over the line which gives a huge pop lead but Trump still edges all the stated he held in 2016.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Ironically, it's potentially good news for Trump in a sense if his leads in states that aren't going to be pivotal are fairly small as it suggests his vote nationally is efficiently distributed. Unless it's a blow-out election, Trump will win Montana anyway and it makes no difference if that's by a single or double figure margin. Equally, it's potentially bad news for Biden - there's no benefit in losing Montana marginally rather than massively and he'd rather have those votes in Michigan.DAlexander said:
Trump won Montana by over 20% last time.HYUFD said:
Biden could do with some closer polling margins in California and New York whilst retaining a national lead. There does look to be some risk he's distributing his vote inefficiently.
I mean, I get that a close poll in Montana could mean Biden is getting an 8% swing across the country, but the national polls don't support that (although they show him in a decent position).
Boom. Trump second term.
In 2016 I identified and laid out that Trump had a plausible high vote efficiency path to the Whitehouse then promptly dismissed it as unrealistic. (I believe someone else backed trump based on my post though).
The question is how lucky does trump have to be to hit that?0 -
Ofqual looks worse...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They do, but it does show Williamson lied.Grandiose said:
Ofqual looks worse...TheScreamingEagles said:
The details are likely to raise difficult new questions for Ofqual, whose chiefs go in front of MPs on Wednesday – but also for Williamson. At the time of the U-turn on A-levels, he suggested he had only known of the potential problems after the initial results were published on 13 August.0 -
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In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.williamglenn said:
You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?rottenborough said:
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.0 -
Just to play Devil's Advocate, given people die of influenza in a normal year, shouldn't be be doing our best to restrict its spread to ensure it kills as few as possible?Black_Rook said:
It'll be masks everywhere before the end of the year, and there's a live risk we'll be stuck with those forever - along with God alone knows what else occurs to the medical profession. Gloves. Goggles. Sin taxes, followed by the creeping prohibition of food not deemed healthy enough. And so on, and so forth.
Wouldn't it be better to try to prevent the spread of infection by a few sensible measures? After all, the economic cost of sickness has to be considered.
0 -
Great engagement with the issue.....IanB2 said:
To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.CarlottaVance said:Mr Herdson nails it:
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
“roll model” indeed.
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1300775591013224451?s=20
0 -
Oh yes. When the tide turns it will turn quickly.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think Labour would actually win by 10-15 points though? In my mind the best is a minority GovernmentCasino_Royale said:
Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.
The biggest concern people have about Labour at the moment is that it won't bat for Britain, doesn't really believe in Britain and won't protect Britain.0 -
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1300810206973169666?s=20
"Should Scotland Remain part of the UK"? Yes/No0 -
Both possible.CorrectHorseBattery said:Also where does 10-15 point lead come from? Labour into the 50s? Tories into the 30s?
0 -
Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.Scott_xP said:
Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.2 -
New Labour got some things wrong: lopsided devolution, mass immigration and creeping europhilia. That, in the end, was its downfall.
Correcting for that there's a basis that a majority of the UK electorate will accept from a centre-left party (that's clearly to the Left of Conservative economics on tax & spend) but it has to be trusted first both economically and, even more important, culturally.0 -
Indicates that the social distancing precautions are a load of old bollocks. In an enclosed space everyone stands a chance of catching it from one infectious individual.solarflare said:
In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.williamglenn said:
You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?rottenborough said:
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.0 -
-
0
-
Absolutely spot on from Harry and Paul0
-
Concessions on State Aid, or a deal that might help stabilise and give the Union a fighting chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.Scott_xP said:
Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
Hmm. Tough one.2 -
In which case everyone should be made to leave the house in a full hazmat suit and private use of motor vehicles should be prohibited. For starters.stodge said:
Just to play Devil's Advocate, given people die of influenza in a normal year, shouldn't be be doing our best to restrict its spread to ensure it kills as few as possible?Black_Rook said:
It'll be masks everywhere before the end of the year, and there's a live risk we'll be stuck with those forever - along with God alone knows what else occurs to the medical profession. Gloves. Goggles. Sin taxes, followed by the creeping prohibition of food not deemed healthy enough. And so on, and so forth.
Wouldn't it be better to try to prevent the spread of infection by a few sensible measures? After all, the economic cost of sickness has to be considered.1 -
-
My niece has been to a summer scheme and got a cold which she’s given to her family. Hopefully children are genuinely less likely to spread COVID compared with colds that they seem to be brilliant at spreading.solarflare said:
In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.williamglenn said:
You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?rottenborough said:
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.0 -
Utterly brilliant clip, pitch perfect.CorrectHorseBattery said:1 -
I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.Scott_xP said:
Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.2 -
The license fee comment reminded me of some here, as did the token leftie in the audience!kle4 said:
Utterly brilliant clip, pitch perfect.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
I do somewhat struggle with emphasising the disparate and diverse nature of the movement as a positive, but still having the centralised authority to declare which elements of it are representative of it and which are not. I have no real idea which views within it are fringe and which are not.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
True. The big mistake was failing to join the Euro when we had the chance.Black_Rook said:
I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.Scott_xP said:
Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.0 -
-
No, that's not the lyrics.CorrectHorseBattery said:
An unbreakable union of free republics,
The Great Russia has welded forever to stand.
Long live the creation of the will of the people,
The united, mighty Soviet Union!
Be glorious, our free Fatherland,
A reliable stronghold of the peoples' friendship!
Party of Lenin, strength of the people,
Leads us to the triumph of communism!
Real voice of the people stuff.0 -
The projections are wrong.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's not what any of the projections sayPhilip_Thompson said:
Because its not a big deal.CorrectHorseBattery said:Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.
Why even take the risk is what I want to know0 -
Evidence, are you from the future?Philip_Thompson said:
The projections are wrong.CorrectHorseBattery said:
That's not what any of the projections sayPhilip_Thompson said:
Because its not a big deal.CorrectHorseBattery said:Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.
Why even take the risk is what I want to know0 -
0
-
Who was playing it? I remember when Putin brought the tune back for Russia in 2000 just before a football international, their footballers were looking at each other unsure whether or not to sing the words.CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Blair killed the Union.Black_Rook said:
I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.Scott_xP said:
Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
Asymmetric devolution left the constitution fundamentally unbalanced and unsustainable.
Tam Dalyell warned what would happen. He was right.3 -
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I'd say it is more that people are paying attention to their children's colds for the first time.tlg86 said:
My niece has been to a summer scheme and got a cold which she’s given to her family. Hopefully children are genuinely less likely to spread COVID compared with colds that they seem to be brilliant at spreading.solarflare said:
In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.williamglenn said:
You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?rottenborough said:
How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.Black_Rook said:
The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.Andy_JS said:"The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"
https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."
Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
Children who would normally have gone in to school with a snotty nose are being held back.2 -
The consequences are however much worse. If Scotland and England, Wales and Ireland were all independent within the EU, there would be no need of borders or customs. With England outside the EU those all become a problem.Black_Rook said:
I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.Scott_xP said:
Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.0 -
IF Labour continues at circa 40% across GB , I expect to see its support in Scotland to recover to circa 30% - at least matching its 2017 vote share there. Many SNP seats would then become vulnerable.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Do you think Labour would actually win by 10-15 points though? In my mind the best is a minority GovernmentCasino_Royale said:
Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.1 -
We shouldn't either and neither should Europe. Refloating the western economies will save more lives in the developing world than a vaccine.TheScreamingEagles said:0
This discussion has been closed.