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  • I am so glad I got into Apple in 2011 and Tesla in 2016 :)

    I was late to Tesla, May and June this year.
    Even so, I've doubled my investment.
  • Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.

    Why even take the risk is what I want to know
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,366
    A nice touch to the Aral sea disaster. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the retreating sea made a remote island in the sea not quite so remote. You could walk there....

    It turned out that it had been the site of a secret germ warfare *factory*, that, in defiance of the treaties signed had manufactured and stored Anthrax. Several metric tons of it!

    Which were then left there when the Soviet Union folded.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131

    I am so glad I got into Apple in 2011 and Tesla in 2016 :)

    JCL.

    I bought into Apple way before that.
    You must be rich!
    Deputy Editor of a political blog rich in fact.
  • kle4 said:

    I am so glad I got into Apple in 2011 and Tesla in 2016 :)

    JCL.

    I bought into Apple way before that.
    You must be rich!
    Deputy Editor of a political blog rich in fact.
    I'm a man of the people, I grew up on a large estate.
  • https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352

    Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.

    The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.
  • IanB2 said:

    Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.

    The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.

    With respect why are you so exercised by Austria which is also quarantined by Norway
  • See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:


    I say this with a heavy heart. It is over BigG. Gordon Brown saved the day in 2014 and Labour have subsequently been punished for it. Labour no longer have the support in Scotland or motivation to do that again.

    It should have been OK for thirty years, but Cameron's vanity EU referendum changed that.

    Like Brexit, Scottish Independence is no longer about economic benefit. The heart will rule the head.

    Speaking as one of the more unionists of Scots, I have to accept that independence has real upsides to offset the downsides, while Brexit is entirely downside.

    First on economics. Scotland would gain access to the European Single Market, set against the bigger loss of the UK market. Brexit is all loss.

    Scotland would gain formal influence in Europe through having a vote and other representation. We can see how valuable that has been to Ireland in achieving its desired outcomes. Scotland has no formal influence in the UK (it doesn't have representation as a country) and limited actual influence due to the relative dominance of England. Brexit means a loss of influence internationally for the UK as whole.

    Scotland would gain protection by being a member of the European Union thanks to independent rules being applied objectively by the ECJ. Governance in the UK is at the whim of a Downing Street government that doesn't protect Scotland's interest.

    The sovereignty win of becoming an independent state is transformationally greater than leaving a multinational body, even an important one like the European Union
    This is poppycock, sorry.

    Scotland has *more* influence in the UK than it would have in the EU (where it'd be an even smaller fish and overruled by QMV on most issues). In the UK it has almost 10% of all UK MPs, each of which have the exact same rights and privileges as any other MP - including all the English ones. Barely 10 years ago Scots were both the PM and the Chancellor, and during the coalition Chief Secretary of the Treasury, with direct representation on the security council of the UN, the G7/8 and the G20. None of which Scotland could ever do again post-independence.

    It's true at the moment as Scotland has chosen to elect largely separatist MPs. It thus has very limited representation in the UK Government as a whole. It's in this sense a feedback loop as the very election of the nationalist MPs helps create the grievances they rail against and rely upon to advance their agenda.

    All this pre-dated Brexit and goes back to the 2015GE and (crucially) the politics of the preceding 18 months when independence garnered a huge head of steam.

    Brexit was (and is) a convenient stick to beat the Union with but the roots run deeper. Far deeper.
    Scotland doesn't have formal representation in the UK. It doesn't have a vote. Any decision that isn't devolved to Holyrood is taken by the UK government alone in its interest. This is different from EU member states who have a formal vote and in practice a near veto on decisions made. If Scotland leaves the UK then obviously its informal influence on the affairs of what remains of the old United Kingdom also goes. However that influence isn't massive right now because of the difference in size of Scotland compared with England.

    BTW I am a supporters of unions (plural), which can be bigger than the sum of their parts. I do accept however there a real wins for Scotland if it becomes independent (against bigger losses IMO). Unlike Brexit, which has no real upsides at all and is a big mistake, albeit one we are committed to.
    Scotland does have formal representation in the UK, and it does have votes. Just as England does too.

    You repeating this (along with most of the rest of your previous post, without addressing the points in my response) doesn't make it true.
    Formal representation? At what level, please?

    The recent history of Scottish (and Welsh and sometimes NIrish) governments' treatment by the current and previous Conservative governments is not a happy one.

    And the Sec of State for Scotland is no longer Scotland's voice within the cabinet - but the Whitehall government's voice within Scotland.
    The United Kingdom Parliament.
    In which it is numerically swamped, and has no distinct representation as a whole, as another has mentioned already today.
    So is Hampshire, or London, or Wales, or Northern Ireland. Scotland is distinctly represented by its 59 MPs representing Scottish interests and through having the SoS for Scotland in the cabinet too.

    Of course, if you don't feel "British" at all - I do - then we have a different problem. Which is what this all hinges on really, isn't it?
    See my comments earlier about the SoSFsitC.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    With the whole quarantine thing, what's the point in advising of it in advance of it coming into effect, thereby giving everyone the opportunity to try and get home before the deadline and avoid having to quarantine?

    If we think people need to quarantine when returning from a country, kick it in immediately. It's not the wacky races. The virus doesn't suddenly wake up at a certain time set by the government.
  • On the subject of Tesla I wouldn't invest at current prices but nor would I assume they're necessarily overvalued either. As far as I can tell Tesla have a few significant advantages over their rivals that mean in the future they could make more earnings relative to their market share.

    1. More proprietary technology.
    2. Vertical integration
    3. Batteries
    4. They're not just a car manufacturer anymore. They're diversifying into the energy industry as a whole.
    5. They're constantly innovating so like their powerwalls you own a share of any future Tesla subsidiaries without them requiring to sell more cars.
    I think it's a mistake to think of Tesla as a car company alone. In the future it could be like thinking of Amazon as a book retailer alone.
    Agreed, I'm in for the long haul and expect the shares to go up significantly over the years.
    The 'Battery Day' event next month has been hyped by Tesla fans, rather than Elon Musk himself, and I wonder whether it can live up to that. The shares could take a hit unless he really has something spectacular to announce.
    Nevertheless, Tesla is years ahead of the legacy automakers including Audi and Jaguar.
    I'm not a believer in the self driving 'Autopilot' software myself, but Tesla is ahead there too - every Tesla on the road provides data to help develop this.
    Solar panels and roof tiles shouldn't be forgotten or the 'Autobidder' software which could enable people who own his cars and solar panels to sell power to others.
    Tesla's mission is 'to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.'
    If Tesla's new batteries are a significant advance and he can get enough for Tesla's own use, I can see them licencing or selling batteries to other manufacturers.
    https://www.tesla.com/blog/mission-tesla
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,594
    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.

    “roll model” indeed.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.

    The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.

    With respect why are you so exercised by Austria which is also quarantined by Norway
    It’s yet another increasingly obvious and damaging mistake by HMG
  • IanB2 said:

    To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.

    “roll model” indeed.

    He wrote it on a mobile device, clearly it was an autocorrect mistake.

    But David already acknowledged his typo.

    https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1300863594523963397?s=21
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    A nice touch to the Aral sea disaster. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the retreating sea made a remote island in the sea not quite so remote. You could walk there....

    It turned out that it had been the site of a secret germ warfare *factory*, that, in defiance of the treaties signed had manufactured and stored Anthrax. Several metric tons of it!

    Which were then left there when the Soviet Union folded.....
    The kids are right - they only got one word wrong - it should read 'and', not 'or'


  • Osborne did not understand economics and flatlined the recovery inherited from Labour.. ..

    I do love this utterly bonkers mantra.
    But he's right, he killed off the nice growth Brown gifted him and almost put us into another recession
    It's utter nonsense, complete garbage. There was no 'nice growth', there was an artificial and unsustainable slight boost from the ludicrously high and unsustainable overspend - after all, any fool, even Gordon Brown, can get a bit of temporary economic activity going by throwing zillions around. What Brown 'gifted' Osborne was the worst fiscal position in the whole of Europe other than Greece; what Osborne achieved was correcting that whilst keeping unemployment extremely low and growth reasonable - it really was a spectacular success.
    Some might even go as far as to say that Osborne was a 'Near-Perfect Chancellor'.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited September 2020
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today’s new case data: Portugal +231, Austria +204.

    The media is awash with stories that releasing Portugal from quarantine was a mistake (but will they really reverse their decision for what would be a fourth time?) whilst the needless damage done to travellers to Austria and travel companies there goes unnoticed.

    With respect why are you so exercised by Austria which is also quarantined by Norway
    It’s yet another increasingly obvious and damaging mistake by HMG
    And Norway ?
  • Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.

    Why even take the risk is what I want to know

    Because its not a big deal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    2016 Trump voter: No President has ruined the country like he has

    A good mix of ordinary Americans’ sentiments here:

    https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/09/01/suburban-women-trump-panel-camerota-newday-vpx.cnn
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    edited September 2020
    nichomar said:

    What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?

    I think we all start moving to the places where the rate's lower than ours. Or something?
  • nichomar said:

    What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?

    Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new year
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?

    Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new year
    That’s a long time to be locked up, four months!
  • Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.

    Why even take the risk is what I want to know

    Because its not a big deal.
    That's not what any of the projections say
  • https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352

    Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour

    You mean spends. He hasn't stopped.

    And for some it goes beyond just attacking New Labour. We have a sitting Labour MP who said on social media in 2015 that she would celebrate the death of Tony Blair. She issued an apology only when found out four years later. I doubt if it was sincere, more done for form's sake as she was by then standing as a parliamentary candidate.

    But yes, there was a lot of good stuff, and while we may have been a bit disappointed by it at the time, it looks a lot better when measured against what came afterwards.
  • malcolmg said:

    The fact that the SNP appear to be a bunch of tw*ts and yet are still miles ahead in the polls just says it all.

    It says that they have succeeded in making themselves interchangeable with 'Scotland'. So any attack on how horrible, pervy, bullying, incompetent, venal or anything else they are, has become an attack on Scotland and Scots. That's why, whilst well intentioned, Douglas Ross's idea of a 'relentless war on the SNP' won't work, for the time being, in my opinion. Instead, opponents of the SNP need to try, however away with the fairies it seems, to envisage a Scotland after the SNP, and be relentless in their attempts to inspire people about that vision.
    Ross is another dumpling, so far everything he has promoted for Scotland he has already voted to have banned from Westminster. He is a clown.
    I disagree - I've heard more out of him so far than I heard out of Carlaw in his entire leadership tenure. Even the increased volume of criticism for him I think tells a story. However, he won't get anywhere just by turning up the volume of his attacks on the SNP.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine

    That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.

    Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)

    In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?

    Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new year
    That’s a long time to be locked up, four months!
    14 day quarantine until the new year and then review
  • kle4 said:

    Stunning revelation.

    Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.
    I guess I'm the only one here who advocates Socialism AND Extinction.
  • IanB2 said:

    To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.

    “roll model” indeed.

    He wrote it on a mobile device, clearly it was an autocorrect mistake.

    But David already acknowledged his typo.

    https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1300863594523963397?s=21
    I hate the way Twitter doesn't allow you to edit.
  • See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine

    That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.

    Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)

    In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.
    Sadly I agree and I have travelled extensively worldwide for the last 15 years so am so grateful as it is unlikely my wife and I will ever fly again
  • kle4 said:

    Stunning revelation.

    Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.
    I guess I'm the only one here who advocates Socialism AND Extinction.
    Um, yep.
  • Why didn't we just quarantine every country
  • IanB2 said:

    To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.

    “roll model” indeed.

    He wrote it on a mobile device, clearly it was an autocorrect mistake.

    But David already acknowledged his typo.

    https://twitter.com/davidherdson/status/1300863594523963397?s=21
    I hate the way Twitter doesn't allow you to edit.
    I do not have that problem as I do not contribute to twitter

    David Cameron was so right all those years ago
  • https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352

    Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour

    I'd have thought being attacked by Aaron Bastani would be considered high praise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kle4 said:

    Stunning revelation.

    Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.
    I guess I'm the only one here who advocates Socialism AND Extinction.
    I'm with you. Until the workers own the means of production we'll never get rid of all those fucking whales.
  • Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.

    Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.


  • Osborne did not understand economics and flatlined the recovery inherited from Labour.. ..

    I do love this utterly bonkers mantra.
    But he's right, he killed off the nice growth Brown gifted him and almost put us into another recession
    It's utter nonsense, complete garbage. There was no 'nice growth', there was an artificial and unsustainable slight boost from the ludicrously high and unsustainable overspend - after all, any fool, even Gordon Brown, can get a bit of temporary economic activity going by throwing zillions around. What Brown 'gifted' Osborne was the worst fiscal position in the whole of Europe other than Greece; what Osborne achieved was correcting that whilst keeping unemployment extremely low and growth reasonable - it really was a spectacular success.
    Why stop at "spectacular success"? Surely Osborne's performance deserves being described as "world beating", as used in for example in "world beating test and trace system". Your claims similarly have a similar degree of veracity as those made by the government about our Covid-19 response.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine

    That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.

    Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)

    In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.
    People will still come out to Spain if they can handle the quarantine, family being the biggest driver or second property as long as the planes fly. They will be perfectly safe, apart from the journey, I’m yet to know personally of a single case of covid no does anyone else I know. The rise is frightening though and I hope those who do come stick to the rules. The schools and universities going back will raise the infection rates even higher so it will be a while before rates drop significantly.
  • Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.

    Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.
    Do you think Labour would actually win by 10-15 points though? In my mind the best is a minority Government
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
  • Also where does 10-15 point lead come from? Labour into the 50s? Tories into the 30s?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Why didn't we just quarantine every country

    The problem is, as NZ has discovered, is making it water or airtight.

    The other problem is NZ has lost its tourism income on which so many of its businesses depend. It's all very well Jacinda Ardern encouraging the Kiwis to visit their own country but there's only 6 million or so of them whereas 11.3 million visitors from abroad support nearly 200,000 local jobs and provide about 10% of the country's GDP.

    Our figures won't be so dramatic but the absence of tourists won't be entirely offset by British people staying at home,
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:
    Trump won Montana by over 20% last time.
    Ironically, it's potentially good news for Trump in a sense if his leads in states that aren't going to be pivotal are fairly small as it suggests his vote nationally is efficiently distributed. Unless it's a blow-out election, Trump will win Montana anyway and it makes no difference if that's by a single or double figure margin. Equally, it's potentially bad news for Biden - there's no benefit in losing Montana marginally rather than massively and he'd rather have those votes in Michigan.

    Biden could do with some closer polling margins in California and New York whilst retaining a national lead. There does look to be some risk he's distributing his vote inefficiently.

    I mean, I get that a close poll in Montana could mean Biden is getting an 8% swing across the country, but the national polls don't support that (although they show him in a decent position).
    Yes, the way Trump wins is 2016 to the max. His vote efficiency was supreme in 2016, it is not implausible to improve on that further to universe beating levels. Biden gets close all across traditionally red state but not over the line which gives a huge pop lead but Trump still edges all the stated he held in 2016.

    Boom. Trump second term.
    I can't see how he gets that lucky twice. He almost certainly won't win any new states. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan then (assuming he holds everything else) Wisconsin would decide the election.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine

    That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.

    Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)

    In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.
    And of course we lose EHIC in 4 months time. Ironic if you think about it that the price of giving that 350m a week to the NHS was a 96% reduction in the number of countries in which we are entitled to free medical care.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
    You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?
  • https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1300866570206564352

    Finally, acknowledging the good stuff we did. Corbyn spent too much time attacking New Labour

    I'd have thought being attacked by Aaron Bastani would be considered high praise.
    This is a typical example of wet New Labour. Kids don't want to receive some savings when they reach 18 which they can use as they see fit. No, what they really want is to be coming of age in a socialist republic.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    edited September 2020
    dodrade said:


    I can't see how he gets that lucky twice. He almost certainly won't win any new states. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan then (assuming he holds everything else) Wisconsin would decide the election.

    I wouldn't rule out Trump flipping Minnesota or perhaps New Hampshire but they looks the only serious prospects.

    The Montana poll (haven't seen it or the crosstabs) would fit into my model of Biden doing better in both his strongholds and in Trump's strongholds but less well in the marginal states.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IshmaelZ said:

    See Nicola has now put Greece on quarantine

    That'll see Boris Johnson following suit no later than three days from now.

    Foreign holidays are definitively over for the mass market for the foreseeable. Presumably people will only be going on them if they can firstly get travel insurance issued against Foreign Office advice (or are extremely rich or extremely thick and decide to chance it,) and are also willing to sit at home on their arses for a fortnight when they get back, and don't have kids in school, and aren't forced to go out to work (i.e. can do 100% of their job from home, or are extremely rich and don't need to bother, or are retired.)

    In short, any travel agencies or package tour operators without very deep pockets or understanding bankers have had it.
    And of course we lose EHIC in 4 months time. Ironic if you think about it that the price of giving that 350m a week to the NHS was a 96% reduction in the number of countries in which we are entitled to free medical care.
    That will be the real killer to a large part of the travel industry if you can’t get travel insurance and EHIC cards are not replaced with something.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    edited September 2020
    Here's a thought experiment.

    Based on the current membership of SCOTUS, how do we think a case similar to Bush v. Gore turns out this autumn?

    I reckon the Chief Justice could be the swing vote.

    Agree or disagree?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
    It'll be masks everywhere before the end of the year, and there's a live risk we'll be stuck with those forever - along with God alone knows what else occurs to the medical profession. Gloves. Goggles. Sin taxes, followed by the creeping prohibition of food not deemed healthy enough. And so on, and so forth.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited September 2020

    nichomar said:

    What happens when the UK rate doubles do the ‘quarantine fresh holds’ move ?

    Personally I would enforce quarantine to all UK bound travellers until the new year
    It'*s (the main?) part of the reason Guernsey is now nigh on 3 months without a single case

    *In case the grammar punctuation police try to argue that a misplaced apostrophe invalidates an entire argument (to which they have no response).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dodrade said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:
    Trump won Montana by over 20% last time.
    Ironically, it's potentially good news for Trump in a sense if his leads in states that aren't going to be pivotal are fairly small as it suggests his vote nationally is efficiently distributed. Unless it's a blow-out election, Trump will win Montana anyway and it makes no difference if that's by a single or double figure margin. Equally, it's potentially bad news for Biden - there's no benefit in losing Montana marginally rather than massively and he'd rather have those votes in Michigan.

    Biden could do with some closer polling margins in California and New York whilst retaining a national lead. There does look to be some risk he's distributing his vote inefficiently.

    I mean, I get that a close poll in Montana could mean Biden is getting an 8% swing across the country, but the national polls don't support that (although they show him in a decent position).
    Yes, the way Trump wins is 2016 to the max. His vote efficiency was supreme in 2016, it is not implausible to improve on that further to universe beating levels. Biden gets close all across traditionally red state but not over the line which gives a huge pop lead but Trump still edges all the stated he held in 2016.

    Boom. Trump second term.
    I can't see how he gets that lucky twice. He almost certainly won't win any new states. If he loses Pennsylvania and Michigan then (assuming he holds everything else) Wisconsin would decide the election.
    That's how you end up losing a packet.

    In 2016 I identified and laid out that Trump had a plausible high vote efficiency path to the Whitehouse then promptly dismissed it as unrealistic. (I believe someone else backed trump based on my post though).

    The question is how lucky does trump have to be to hit that?
  • Grandiose said:
    They do, but it does show Williamson lied.

    The details are likely to raise difficult new questions for Ofqual, whose chiefs go in front of MPs on Wednesday – but also for Williamson. At the time of the U-turn on A-levels, he suggested he had only known of the potential problems after the initial results were published on 13 August.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707

    Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
    You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?
    In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898


    It'll be masks everywhere before the end of the year, and there's a live risk we'll be stuck with those forever - along with God alone knows what else occurs to the medical profession. Gloves. Goggles. Sin taxes, followed by the creeping prohibition of food not deemed healthy enough. And so on, and so forth.

    Just to play Devil's Advocate, given people die of influenza in a normal year, shouldn't be be doing our best to restrict its spread to ensure it kills as few as possible?

    Wouldn't it be better to try to prevent the spread of infection by a few sensible measures? After all, the economic cost of sickness has to be considered.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited September 2020
    IanB2 said:

    To “nail it” I’d expect a tweet without schoolboy spelling mistakes.

    “roll model” indeed.
    Great engagement with the issue.....

    https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/1300775591013224451?s=20

  • Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.

    Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.
    Do you think Labour would actually win by 10-15 points though? In my mind the best is a minority Government
    Oh yes. When the tide turns it will turn quickly.

    The biggest concern people have about Labour at the moment is that it won't bat for Britain, doesn't really believe in Britain and won't protect Britain.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited September 2020
    https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1300810206973169666?s=20

    "Should Scotland Remain part of the UK"? Yes/No
  • Also where does 10-15 point lead come from? Labour into the 50s? Tories into the 30s?

    Both possible.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.

    Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
  • New Labour got some things wrong: lopsided devolution, mass immigration and creeping europhilia. That, in the end, was its downfall.

    Correcting for that there's a basis that a majority of the UK electorate will accept from a centre-left party (that's clearly to the Left of Conservative economics on tax & spend) but it has to be trusted first both economically and, even more important, culturally.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
    You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?
    In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.
    Indicates that the social distancing precautions are a load of old bollocks. In an enclosed space everyone stands a chance of catching it from one infectious individual.
  • Absolutely spot on from Harry and Paul
  • Scott_xP said:
    Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.

    Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
    Concessions on State Aid, or a deal that might help stabilise and give the Union a fighting chance.

    Hmm. Tough one.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    stodge said:


    It'll be masks everywhere before the end of the year, and there's a live risk we'll be stuck with those forever - along with God alone knows what else occurs to the medical profession. Gloves. Goggles. Sin taxes, followed by the creeping prohibition of food not deemed healthy enough. And so on, and so forth.

    Just to play Devil's Advocate, given people die of influenza in a normal year, shouldn't be be doing our best to restrict its spread to ensure it kills as few as possible?

    Wouldn't it be better to try to prevent the spread of infection by a few sensible measures? After all, the economic cost of sickness has to be considered.

    In which case everyone should be made to leave the house in a full hazmat suit and private use of motor vehicles should be prohibited. For starters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
    You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?
    In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.
    My niece has been to a summer scheme and got a cold which she’s given to her family. Hopefully children are genuinely less likely to spread COVID compared with colds that they seem to be brilliant at spreading.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    Utterly brilliant clip, pitch perfect.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Scott_xP said:
    Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.

    Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
    I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.
  • kle4 said:

    Utterly brilliant clip, pitch perfect.
    The license fee comment reminded me of some here, as did the token leftie in the audience!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    I do somewhat struggle with emphasising the disparate and diverse nature of the movement as a positive, but still having the centralised authority to declare which elements of it are representative of it and which are not. I have no real idea which views within it are fringe and which are not.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.

    Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
    I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.
    True. The big mistake was failing to join the Euro when we had the chance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    No, that's not the lyrics.

    An unbreakable union of free republics,
    The Great Russia has welded forever to stand.
    Long live the creation of the will of the people,
    The united, mighty Soviet Union!

    Be glorious, our free Fatherland,
    A reliable stronghold of the peoples' friendship!
    Party of Lenin, strength of the people,
    Leads us to the triumph of communism!



    Real voice of the people stuff.
  • Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.

    Why even take the risk is what I want to know

    Because its not a big deal.
    That's not what any of the projections say
    The projections are wrong.
  • Brown in 2010 wasn't implementing a No Deal Brexit.

    Why even take the risk is what I want to know

    Because its not a big deal.
    That's not what any of the projections say
    The projections are wrong.
    Evidence, are you from the future?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Who was playing it? I remember when Putin brought the tune back for Russia in 2000 just before a football international, their footballers were looking at each other unsure whether or not to sing the words.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.

    Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
    I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.
    Blair killed the Union.

    Asymmetric devolution left the constitution fundamentally unbalanced and unsustainable.

    Tam Dalyell warned what would happen. He was right.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The ZeroCovid debate: can the disease be eliminated?
    Professor Devi Sridhar makes the case for why we should not tolerate any level of Covid-19"

    https://unherd.com/2020/08/the-zerocovid-debate-can-the-disease-be-eliminated/

    The problem with the elimination strategy is, of course, it involves an enormous amount of pain and effort, at the end of which the "successful" country concerned will then be so afraid of it breaking out again that it will resort to almost any extreme to stamp out fresh outbreaks.

    In other words, it would be exactly like New Zealand. One week:"It's gone, no more horrid masks, we can go back to normal, hooray!" The next week: "A case has been detected in London. Panic panic panic! Everyone in London must now spend six weeks locked in their home. No leaving under any circumstances except to buy food."

    Except, of course, at least New Zealand is so bloody remote that they wouldn't be getting new clusters seeded on a weekly basis by the constant to-ing and fro-ing of truck drivers, or migrants stowing away in the backs of their lorries.
    How long before these zealots have moved onto zero-influenza? We will be in and out of lockdown for the rest of our lives.
    You don't see the benefits of a zero cold strategy?
    In anecdata, from family and friends the cold seems to be running rife in the schools in Scotland, despite all the extra precautions. So let's hope that that isn't also the case with covid.
    My niece has been to a summer scheme and got a cold which she’s given to her family. Hopefully children are genuinely less likely to spread COVID compared with colds that they seem to be brilliant at spreading.
    I'd say it is more that people are paying attention to their children's colds for the first time.

    Children who would normally have gone in to school with a snotty nose are being held back.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,719

    Scott_xP said:
    Well some of us did warn that Brexit may well lead to the breakup of the Union but we were denounced as engaging in Project Fear.

    Brexiteers like Gove are absolute tossers, they wanted to destroy the EU but may well end up destroying the Union, I hope he gets a paper cut on his todger every day for the rest of his life.
    I'm sure many of us will enjoy blaming Johnson, Gove et al for their recklessness when the Union dies, but it was already on its way to the grave regardless. All they may have done is hurry it along a bit, that's all.
    The consequences are however much worse. If Scotland and England, Wales and Ireland were all independent within the EU, there would be no need of borders or customs. With England outside the EU those all become a problem.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Sanity on defence and foreign policy, not frightening the horses on the economy, balance on crime & justice and pledging not to loosen migration control whilst giving Boris enough rope to hang himself on Brexit.

    Labour has a 10-15 point lead and is back in office in less than 4 years.
    Do you think Labour would actually win by 10-15 points though? In my mind the best is a minority Government
    IF Labour continues at circa 40% across GB , I expect to see its support in Scotland to recover to circa 30% - at least matching its 2017 vote share there. Many SNP seats would then become vulnerable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    We shouldn't either and neither should Europe. Refloating the western economies will save more lives in the developing world than a vaccine.
This discussion has been closed.