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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak continues to defy gravity in YouGov’s favourability rati
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sunak continues to defy gravity in YouGov’s favourability ratings
YouGov have just updated their favourability trackers and as can be seen the Chancellor continues to ride supreme although still a long way down from his net plus 49% just at the start of lockdown. He, of course, has been making many of the key lockdown announcements on things like the hugely expensive furlough scheme and, of course, the changes on VAT and last month the cheap meals offer.
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Is Sunak the heir to Brown?
https://twitter.com/GdnScotland/status/1300832880491364354
Shares in the California-based iPhone maker enjoyed a boost after a stock split to make it more accessible to retail investors."
https://news.sky.com/story/apple-overtakes-value-of-entire-ftse-100-12061087
The recent history of Scottish (and Welsh and sometimes NIrish) governments' treatment by the current and previous Conservative governments is not a happy one.
And the Sec of State for Scotland is no longer Scotland's voice within the cabinet - but the Whitehall government's voice within Scotland.
To add to your point, Brown's popularity as Chancellor was well established after presiding over a decade of steady economic expansion combined with public service growth, yet it had little resilience in the face of an economic meltdown from 2008.
As the table shows, Sunak's popularity derives solely from a favourable reaction to the measures he took in March. Unlike Brown, he doesn't have a well established track record. So there's potentially little substance underpinning those ratings, suggesting that those ratings will collapse once he has to announce unpopular measures to replace those popular ones coming to an end. In addition, if Britain's recession continues to be deeper than those of other countries, it'll be harder for our current Chancellor to deflect blame for that off the government.
The political problem is obvious - no-one likes tax rises if they fall on them, or in many cases even if they don't. However, the macro-economic conundrum is even harder to crack. This is because tax rises don't just raise money for the Treasury, they also clobber demand, which is the opposite of what is required if the economy is to recover. There is no pot of gold sitting there to be raided without any downside - if you tax the better-off a lot more, they will spend less, affecting the whole economy and thus the less well-off.
George Osborne faced a somewhat similar dilemma in 2010, when he inherited a clearly unsustainable fiscal position whereby Alastair Darling and Gordon Brown were spending four pounds for every three raised in revenue. Luckily for us all, he judged it extremely well, managing to get the deficit down to reasonable levels within a few budget cycles and without provoking mass unemployment.
Will Sunak be able to repeat the trick? There are big headwinds - not only the self-imposed looming disaster of a chaotic Brexit, but also disruption to the world economy which looks deeper and more widespread even than the global financial crisis of 2008/9. It's a bit early to be sure, but my hunch is that the economic hit of Covid-19 is going to take a long time to recover from.
Overall, I'm not optimistic that Sunak will be able to emulate Osborne, talented though he is.
But compulsory masking, social distancing, soaring parking charges and sky high business rates haven;t exactly helped your high street shop fight back against the online retailers.
I have also have huge concerns about the valuation of Netflix.
Technically the latter isn't an option without years of the former - but it would take a unanimous treaty to let Scotland into the EU anyway and with a unanimous treaty the Europeans could change the rules for the Euro to let Scotland in, creating bespoke rules for Scotland as its a previously unheard of example of a country without a currency of its own.
Authoritarians in favour of compulsory masking cannot stand it when the obvious downsides are pointed out. It does not compute.
There isn;t strong evidence either way. Said the deputy chief medical officer only the other day.
Nissan's market cap is 15.8 billion compared to Tesla 446 billion !
I did not defend that word and would never use it.
Look, Why don't you just ban me mate, you've been dying to for ages. In some ways it would be a release. It would stop me wasting a bucket of my time as well. I could watch some paint dry.
It would be so uncharacteristic anyway I'm not sure how credible it would be with many voters. It also risks falling into the converse of Labour's trap. Labour basically tried to be Unionist when there was a full fat Unionist party available to vote for. Mr Ross risks trying to be pro-Scotland when there is a far more credibly pro-Scotland party to vote for, and wehn the question of actual independence would (probably) be settled quite separately by a referendum (ie not by voting for any one party).
Edit: Mr Ross would be more believable if his party had done a Murdo Fraser and gone independent from the London-based Tories. But would that still be credible enough now after their u-turn on Brexit?
YES!
Still, the question is what Sunak can do from the position he now faces. It looks more difficult even than what Osborne had to deal with. I expect he'll tread carefully for the next year or so, if only because no-one yet knows how big the Covid-19 hit will eventually be, nor what the resulting structural changes to the economy are going to be.
Errhhhh, it was Labour's plan first
Why is it a contrast, Sir Keir? Weren't you a part of what you would say was a great opposition last year?
I certainly don't think his history in the Corbynite shadow cabinet is a disqualifier, and he needed to do it to win the leadership too, but I imagine that crowd must really dislike the increasingly unsubtle digs at the Jezziah.
Personally I suspect the VW's I3 and other cars will rather damage Tesla's european market share - I know which car I would rather own and it's not a Tesla 3.
The reason being that Brown bequeathed a humongous structural deficit so growing out of it was never viable, even at full employment there was still a deficit. In contrast going into COVID19 there was no structural deficit. There has been a major systemic shock and it will lead to a lot of reforms but there seems to be little reason for a structural deficit.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1300850632455225354?s=19
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1300854039068901377?s=20
Of course, if you don't feel "British" at all - I do - then we have a different problem. Which is what this all hinges on really, isn't it?
How would Aaron know?
Quite why they couldn't just leave it at socialism without the Soviet symbol I dont know.
Biden could do with some closer polling margins in California and New York whilst retaining a national lead. There does look to be some risk he's distributing his vote inefficiently.
I mean, I get that a close poll in Montana could mean Biden is getting an 8% swing across the country, but the national polls don't support that (although they show him in a decent position).
That like the Nazis, Stalin misused the description socialist.
*I'm not sure a true communist would wear Ralph Lauren articles of clothing.
More than two dozen new contenders are going up for election in November
Black candidates have begun winning more House seats and statewide offices, such as attorney general, in places where most voters are white—a departure from decades in which Black political power was rooted largely in minority communities.
Officials and political analysts say these recent victories could position Black candidates to win the highest statewide offices. There have been only two elected Black governors and six senators since Reconstruction.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/black-candidates-are-now-winning-in-mostly-white-districts-opening-path-to-higher-office-11598980352
- More proprietary technology.
- Vertical integration
- Batteries
- They're not just a car manufacturer anymore. They're diversifying into the energy industry as a whole.
- They're constantly innovating so like their powerwalls you own a share of any future Tesla subsidiaries without them requiring to sell more cars.
I think it's a mistake to think of Tesla as a car company alone. In the future it could be like thinking of Amazon as a book retailer alone.'The Campaign for Better Buses'
1. Abolish capitalism.
2. Abolish capitalism.
3. Abolish capitalism.
4. Decolonize buses.
5. Something something Israel.
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369. What is a bus again?
WE LOST, FFS we are doomed
I bought into Apple way before that.
Note: Scottish case data by specimen date not being provided to PHE
Note: Scottish case data by specimen date not being provided to PHE
Scottish data being provided at these aggregate levels.
Mars for show, asteroids for dough.
Corbynites are mad
Boom. Trump second term.