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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?
Scötterdämmerung. The latest polling on Scottish independence really is looking like the twilight of the Union.It could get much worse for Unionists. pic.twitter.com/mWk1etmYED
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Plus, I'm glad I've managed to get 'great cleavage' in a thread header.
So long and thanks for all the fish.
DYOR
'Athens of the North'
Absolutely.
Giving the poor buggers some hope I see.
Waiting for the deployment of SLab under Roderick Leopard is more like depending on the firepower of Army Detachment Steiner.
I'm blaming time pressures autocorrect for the typo in the thread header.
HYUFD is a major figure in the Epping Conservative Party – he is chairman of the board AIUI
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1296440300966158337?s=20
You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
You really need to have a look at some newspapers available here.
But we do get quite a few people on PB complaining that the UK didn't close its frontiers/do it soon enough. I'm sure you wil lbe pleased to tell all of them they are bigots.
Sad really.
Ah, I see.
How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?
At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.
Putin must be licking his lips.
More generally, it is a curious feature of Scötterdämmerung that Brexit provides a strong political push towards independence, but at the same time makes independence even more impractical without very severe economic damage than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. Will the Scots really say 'Wow, Brexit is proving such a disaster, why don't we compound it big-time by introducing yet more barriers and fragmentation?' Maybe they will - it's a funny old world - but it won't end very happily if they do.
More generally, there seems to be more interest by the Westminster Gmt in fighting expeditionary battles in the Middle & Far East - though at last something is being done about maritime patrol aircraft.
When is the incompetent John Swinney going to fall on his sword over the education shambles ?
Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?
Of course, civil wars only made things worse for the people, depressing crop yields further.
I make this point because when things are bad, people say "how can things be worse?" Or "desperate times require desperate measures."
Of course we should be a little circumspect about the polling. If, like most Scots, you are distinctly dischuffed by Brexit, hate Boris, hate the Tories generally, think the UK government is a shambles at best and probably a deliberately malign one at that, then telling an opinion pollster that you favour independence is a no-cost way of expressing your frustration. Experience suggests that such protest-polling doesn't always carry over into real elections or referendums with real-world consequences, especially since there's not going to be another referendum for a while at least.
More important than any of that is the acknowledgement that patterns of living between Scotland and England are far more intertwined than patterns of living between Northern Ireland and Ireland or the UK and the EU, and that the Scottish separatist movement will perform what amounts to an amputation of them.
EDIT: In fact, it turns out the UK has agreed post-Brexit trade continuity with Botswana, so goods coming from Scotland won't even be on parity with them.
https://twitter.com/margbrennan/status/1296445655699918857?s=20
We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1296386219480354816?s=20
I quit BBC news less than a fortnight ago and took up a digital subscription to The Times.
This has made my week!!!
However, we are both unionists and will defend the union throughout any indy2 referendum, but will not become embroiled in the abuse from diehard nationalists
There is a very long way to go before an indy2 vote is won and the experience of brexit, now 4 years down the line, indicates just how complex and difficult this will be and the nationalists 'having their cake and eating it' will reverberate through the land once more
Certainly nothing compared to the Northern Ireland border, and probably the Welsh.
https://twitter.com/abigdoob/status/1296466504901369858?s=20
If the conditions we need to defend change then we need to change defense plans simple as that. In this case it sounds like an independent scotland requires them to change as presumably the scots wont have the airforce or navy necessary to deter the russians for a while.
Nato is pretty much Kaput as the eu seem intent on pulling their own army together and Trump seems less than interested and I suspect if he wins again you might see a us withdrawal.
The reality is we could object all we want but it would be empty words I don't see the EU or UK or Nato invading scotland to dislodge a base do you?
GCSE results stories x2
Manchester Bombing brother jailed for 55 years
Steve Bannon Arrested
Russian opposition leader 'poisoned'
Germany highest cases COVID cases since April (and 3 other COVID stories in same box)
Man guilty of Tesco baby food blackmail plot
Students to be offer first choice university places [take note @eek ]
Croatia could be next on quarantine list
Gyms and swimming pools could reopen in Scotland 31 Aug
'Night stalker' rapist jailed for murder
Nuclear site reusable in '313 years' time'
AirBnB bans all house parties worldwide.
They all seem news to me, with the bottom one perhaps the least serious but also on the bottom corner of the screen. Multiple law and order stories, multiple stories about murders, multiple COVID ones, multiple international ones.
Not a single game story, not a single celebrity story, not a single Youtuber story, not one I'd call woke brainwashing. That's without any scrolling at all.
I'm not a defender of the BBC or the licence fee, but here's a screenshot of what I'm seeing on the BBC News homepage - no scrolling. Curious what is "woke" about any of this?
Are other people seeing different stories?
A neutral or unaligned Scotland would make everyone's lives much harder, but it could be accepted.
It being an ally of Putin's Russia would threaten Western security and it would invite a proportionate response.
The temporary political ascendancy of little Englanders is as nothing by comparison to the lasting damage that creating such a division would cause.
Arch-Remainer Tim Farron has even noticed it.
Scottish independence is one of the most important issues facing the country and it is right that it gets a lot of attention:
Con: 5
Lab: 24
"Other" (±SNP): 53
Scottish independence distracts from other important issues that should get more attention
Con: 94
Lab: 70
"Other" (±SNP): 29
Interesting that "SNP" "Don't Knows" at 18% are a lot higher than Con (1%) or Lab (6%).
Things can always be worse.
https://twitter.com/BoeingUK/status/1296363887470817280?s=09
I would expect the US to do nothing in the unlikely event just as they did about crimea and the EU to do even less. Granted they would spout a lot of hot air and wring their hands.....actions not so much
Malcolm is the exception but it is part of his personal brand to be rude – and he applies his rudeness equally and fairly to all.
I just hope your fellow travellers are as sensible.
Some important context to today’s news of former Trump advisor Steve Bannon’s arrest: Earlier this summer, attorney general William Barr attempted to prevent Audrey Strauss, the Southern District Court of New York’s (SDNY) interim district attorney who today arrested the president’s former ally, from heading the powerful district.
Trump fired SDNY’s former district attorney Geoffrey Berman in June 2020 after a baffling series of events where Barr released a press statement, without Berman’s knowledge, that Berman is resigning. When Berman refused to confirm his resignation from the role, Barr announced that he asked Trump to fire Berman, and the president followed through.
When asked why they sought to fire Berman, Barr and Trump pointed fingers at each other. Berman has overseen investigation and prosecution of key Trump allies like Rudy Giuliani and Michael Cohen. Upon his departure, Berman said that it was crucial that “important cases continue upended” in SDNY.
That Berman did not leave without publicly expressing dismay forced Barr to give up a plan to replace Berman with a chief prosecutor from New Jersey, a move that critics say was the justice department’s attempt to wrestle control of SDNY.
Instead, Audrey Strauss, who was Berman’s second-in-command, stepped up. Berman said that he was happy to leave SDNY in the hands of Strauss, saying she would continue the district’s “tradition of integrity and independence”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/aug/20/joe-biden-covid-19-coronavirus-donald-trump-kamala-harris-barack-obama-dnc-democratic-national-convention-us-politics-live
https://twitter.com/BoeingUK/status/1296363887470817280?s=09
A blockade and economic sanctions would probably do it but I can't think of a scenario more likely to lead to direct conflict between rUK and Scotland.
It's a stupid idea.