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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

Scötterdämmerung. The latest polling on Scottish independence really is looking like the twilight of the Union.It could get much worse for Unionists. pic.twitter.com/mWk1etmYED

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,253
    That pun again.....
  • That pun again.....

    I had like 15 minutes to write this thread in between conference calls today.

    Plus, I'm glad I've managed to get 'great cleavage' in a thread header.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,253
    Arguably, the greater cleavage was when that block of SNP MPs worked with Remainer Labour and Tory MPs to thwart the implementation of Brexit for the wider UK.
  • Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Don't forget the oil.

    :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,253

    That pun again.....

    I had like 15 minutes to write this thread in between conference calls today.

    Plus, I'm glad I've managed to get 'great cleavage' in a thread header.
    Just to let you know we pay attention....
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,000
    I might be nuts but I cant understand the price of Star Terms in the 345 York (25/1) If you look at her form at the start of last year itis miles better than any of these. She was in races with far better horses than these and ran really well. Some of the horses she beat are now rated 110+. Just relying on Richard Hannon having her ready

    DYOR
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    edited August 2020
    There’s no need to fear a English Tory supermajority. A different politics will emerge over some future issues. Probably a right wing and a centre right party, as well as the Labour party clinging onto the cities.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2020
    RobD said:

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Don't forget the oil.

    :smiley:
    Couldn't think of a literary way to phrase that though. Could say that the Scots are Mostly Harmless but I'm not sure I'd be believed?
  • That pun again.....

    I had like 15 minutes to write this thread in between conference calls today.

    Plus, I'm glad I've managed to get 'great cleavage' in a thread header.
    My maths teacher at school kept going on about "Sine means tits" :)
  • Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    The Scots coming to terms with economic reality and in particular the stability pact would also provide many hours of fun

    'Athens of the North'

    Absolutely.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    'If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it is looking good'

    Giving the poor buggers some hope I see.

    Waiting for the deployment of SLab under Roderick Leopard is more like depending on the firepower of Army Detachment Steiner.
  • 'If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it is looking good'

    Giving the poor buggers some hope I see.

    Waiting for the deployment of SLab under Roderick Leopard is more like depending on the firepower of Army Detachment Steiner.

    *Checks notes*

    I'm blaming time pressures autocorrect for the typo in the thread header.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,467
    edited August 2020
    FPT

    HYUFD is a major figure in the Epping Conservative Party – he is chairman of the board AIUI
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    edited August 2020

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
    I can count 4 errors in that statement about Lamberton Toll (no motorway, no bridge, the only scene, and the/a leading perpretrator is not a SNP activist - quite the opposite).

    You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,467
    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
  • Carnyx said:

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
    I can count 4 errors in that statement about Lamberton Toll (no motorway, no bridge, the only scene, and the/a leading perpretrator is not a SNP activist - quite the opposite).

    You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
    Is that the best you can do. Wibbling over whether the A1 at Berwick is a motorway or not. Criticise the nationalist bigots for their actions rather than relying on petty pedantry. It wasn't the only place the nationalist bigots were too.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    Exactly so, especiually by comparison with NI/Ireland and (I assume) Eng/Wales. This came up on PB quite a bit on 2013-14 but none of the Unionists would believe it for some reason which escapes me.
  • Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    With the media owned by unionists, or in the case of the BBC given a mission to presertve the UK?

    You really need to have a look at some newspapers available here.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Carnyx said:

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
    I can count 4 errors in that statement about Lamberton Toll (no motorway, no bridge, the only scene, and the/a leading perpretrator is not a SNP activist - quite the opposite).

    You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
    You've confused 'shouldn't believe' with 'really, really, REALLY want to believe'.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Carnyx said:

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
    I can count 4 errors in that statement about Lamberton Toll (no motorway, no bridge, the only scene, and the/a leading perpretrator is not a SNP activist - quite the opposite).

    You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
    Is that the best you can do. Wibbling over whether the A1 at Berwick is a motorway or not. Criticise the nationalist bigots for their actions rather than relying on petty pedantry. It wasn't the only place the nationalist bigots were too.
    Oh, did they go to Gretna? Silly boys and girls.

    But we do get quite a few people on PB complaining that the UK didn't close its frontiers/do it soon enough. I'm sure you wil lbe pleased to tell all of them they are bigots.
  • Carnyx said:

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    With the media owned by unionists, or in the case of the BBC given a mission to presertve the UK?

    You really need to have a look at some newspapers available here.
    I have done. A mixed bag. Some pro SNP others not. But, hey, you nationalists and your sense of victimhood.
  • Carnyx said:

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
    I can count 4 errors in that statement about Lamberton Toll (no motorway, no bridge, the only scene, and the/a leading perpretrator is not a SNP activist - quite the opposite).

    You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
    You've confused 'shouldn't believe' with 'really, really, REALLY want to believe'.
    Another apologist for the nationalist bigots telling the English to go home.

    Sad really.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Carnyx said:

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    With the media owned by unionists, or in the case of the BBC given a mission to presertve the UK?

    You really need to have a look at some newspapers available here.
    I have done. A mixed bag. Some pro SNP others not. But, hey, you nationalists and your sense of victimhood.
    Which ones do you think are pro-SNP, as a matter of interest?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Here's a thought, without the 22nd amendment would be now be looking at another four years of Obama?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    Galloway makes a number of good points there.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    But Galloway is a narcissistic tit without a clue about contemporary Scotland, its media or politics.

    Ah, I see.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Carnyx said:

    Better good neighbours than truculent tenants.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.

    Agreed but for some Scots with their never ending feelings of victimhood more likely to be truculent neighbours. Who can forget the scenes on motorway bridges of angry nats demanding the English go home or don;t come to Scotland. Because we're all "diseased".
    I can count 4 errors in that statement about Lamberton Toll (no motorway, no bridge, the only scene, and the/a leading perpretrator is not a SNP activist - quite the opposite).

    You shouldn't believe media and publicist constructs. This is getting to remind me of Jim MUrphy's egg (thtown by a Labour voting shift worker fed up of Mr M using a loudhailer under his bedroom window) and Ian Murray's constituency office being allgedly trashed by Alex Salmond personally in 2013/14 (okay, last bit re 'personally' an exaggeration on my part, buyt not much) - I saw the horrendous damage with my own eyes: one single Yes sticker about 3cm diameter, and some locak youth gang territorial slogans with marker pens, of noi political meaning whatsoever.
    You've confused 'shouldn't believe' with 'really, really, REALLY want to believe'.
    Another apologist for the nationalist bigots telling the English to go home.

    Sad really.
    Neither TUD nor I said that we approve of their actions - but there is a real public health isue which may become more salient with time as policies diverge.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    I can't help feeling that the argument that there won't need to be too many checkpoints at the border somewhat misses the point...

    More generally, it is a curious feature of Scötterdämmerung that Brexit provides a strong political push towards independence, but at the same time makes independence even more impractical without very severe economic damage than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. Will the Scots really say 'Wow, Brexit is proving such a disaster, why don't we compound it big-time by introducing yet more barriers and fragmentation?' Maybe they will - it's a funny old world - but it won't end very happily if they do.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    edited August 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    With the media owned by unionists, or in the case of the BBC given a mission to presertve the UK?

    You really need to have a look at some newspapers available here.
    I have done. A mixed bag. Some pro SNP others not. But, hey, you nationalists and your sense of victimhood.
    Which ones do you think are pro-SNP, as a matter of interest?
    Looking forward to this insightful list. Fantastic that indy will have much more media support this time.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    We should have thought about that well before now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    With the media owned by unionists, or in the case of the BBC given a mission to presertve the UK?

    You really need to have a look at some newspapers available here.
    I have done. A mixed bag. Some pro SNP others not. But, hey, you nationalists and your sense of victimhood.
    Which ones do you think are pro-SNP, as a matter of interest?
    Looking forward to this insightful list.
    Me too - I can think of one newspaper, perhaps two, but anything more would be of real interest (unless it's one unfamiliar to me).
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,616

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
  • Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    The major issue is surely not the number of crossings but the volume of traffic. 30,000 people cross the Northern Irish border every day; the Scottish border has 100,000 commuters alone, to say nothing of other traffic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    We should have thought about that well before now.
    It was discussed in the indyref 1 white paper - and the 2010s, as I recall, was a time when the Navy and RAF were being run doiwn anyway (Nimrod, dockyards, and so on).

    More generally, there seems to be more interest by the Westminster Gmt in fighting expeditionary battles in the Middle & Far East - though at last something is being done about maritime patrol aircraft.
  • Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    But Galloway is a narcissistic tit without a clue about contemporary Scotland, its media or politics.

    Ah, I see.
    Given that endorsement you'd think he'd be a perfect fit into the upper echelons of the SNP

    When is the incompetent John Swinney going to fall on his sword over the education shambles ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,145

    'If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it is looking good'

    Giving the poor buggers some hope I see.

    Waiting for the deployment of SLab under Roderick Leopard is more like depending on the firepower of Army Detachment Steiner.

    *Checks notes*

    I'm blaming time pressures autocorrect for the typo in the thread header.
    Perhaps you wrote it on an Apple....
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 222
    Just took BBC off my bookmarks list. Always been my go-to site for news, but now the front page seems to be filled with stories about video games, celebrities, Youtubers, and general woke brainwashing. You have to scroll down a fair bit to get any actual news.

    Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    The major issue is surely not the number of crossings but the volume of traffic. 30,000 people cross the Northern Irish border every day; the Scottish border has 100,000 commuters alone, to say nothing of other traffic.
    Quiote so. But if the Scots rejion the EU, as they may well do, then the problem reverts to a rUK-EU issue, which will have been solved by then - won't it??
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,345
    edited August 2020

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    I have crossed most of the 25 or so border roads in my time, especially those spanning the Tweed and Teviot, but in truth Gretna is the principal crossing while Berwick in the east may become more relevant once it is dualed all the way between Edinburgh and Newcastle
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955

    I can't help feeling that the argument that there won't need to be too many checkpoints at the border somewhat misses the point...

    More generally, it is a curious feature of Scötterdämmerung that Brexit provides a strong political push towards independence, but at the same time makes independence even more impractical without very severe economic damage than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. Will the Scots really say 'Wow, Brexit is proving such a disaster, why don't we compound it big-time by introducing yet more barriers and fragmentation?' Maybe they will - it's a funny old world - but it won't end very happily if they do.

    There's a fabulous book by Parker called Global Catastrophe, looking at the impact of climate change in the 17th Century (the mini ice age) on politics. Time and time again, there would be crop failures, and this would be followed by revolutions. (People couldn't afford to eat, and instead of blaming the weather, they blamed the government.)

    Of course, civil wars only made things worse for the people, depressing crop yields further.

    I make this point because when things are bad, people say "how can things be worse?" Or "desperate times require desperate measures."
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Galloway has a point about the failure to hold Sturgeon and co to account.
    But Galloway is a narcissistic tit without a clue about contemporary Scotland, its media or politics.

    Ah, I see.
    Given that endorsement you'd think he'd be a perfect fit into the upper echelons of the SNP

    When is the incompetent John Swinney going to fall on his sword over the education shambles ?
    Well, are you going to tell us which newspapers are pro-SNP?

  • FPT

    HYUFD is a major figure in the Epping Conservative Party – he is chairman of the board AIUI

    And if you know who the mp is it may help to understand his far right ERG style views
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    guybrush said:

    Just took BBC off my bookmarks list. Always been my go-to site for news, but now the front page seems to be filled with stories about video games, celebrities, Youtubers, and general woke brainwashing. You have to scroll down a fair bit to get any actual news.

    Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?

    Grauniad isn't bad as a website - it does mark up the opinion columns and one can allow mentally for the rest. Plus it's free, though one can register/pay a little.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,568
    rcs1000 said:

    I can't help feeling that the argument that there won't need to be too many checkpoints at the border somewhat misses the point...

    More generally, it is a curious feature of Scötterdämmerung that Brexit provides a strong political push towards independence, but at the same time makes independence even more impractical without very severe economic damage than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. Will the Scots really say 'Wow, Brexit is proving such a disaster, why don't we compound it big-time by introducing yet more barriers and fragmentation?' Maybe they will - it's a funny old world - but it won't end very happily if they do.

    There's a fabulous book by Parker called Global Catastrophe, looking at the impact of climate change in the 17th Century (the mini ice age) on politics. Time and time again, there would be crop failures, and this would be followed by revolutions. (People couldn't afford to eat, and instead of blaming the weather, they blamed the government.)

    Of course, civil wars only made things worse for the people, depressing crop yields further.

    I make this point because when things are bad, people say "how can things be worse?" Or "desperate times require desperate measures."
    Yep, that's true.

    Of course we should be a little circumspect about the polling. If, like most Scots, you are distinctly dischuffed by Brexit, hate Boris, hate the Tories generally, think the UK government is a shambles at best and probably a deliberately malign one at that, then telling an opinion pollster that you favour independence is a no-cost way of expressing your frustration. Experience suggests that such protest-polling doesn't always carry over into real elections or referendums with real-world consequences, especially since there's not going to be another referendum for a while at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    England case data - absolute -

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    England case data - scaled to 100K population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    England case data - regional -

    image
    image
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,955
    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 467
    edited August 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    The major issue is surely not the number of crossings but the volume of traffic. 30,000 people cross the Northern Irish border every day; the Scottish border has 100,000 commuters alone, to say nothing of other traffic.
    Quiote so. But if the Scots rejion the EU, as they may well do, then the problem reverts to a rUK-EU issue, which will have been solved by then - won't it??
    If the Scottish government can negotiate to leave the UK while simultaneously negotiating to join the EU, without having any trained negotiators on staff already, and manage to coordinate leaving the UK with joining the EU to the very second, then the 60% of Scottish trade that goes to the UK will 'only' have to go through whatever checks rUK goods have to go through to get to the EU. The checks, incidentally, which the SNP say are so intolerable that they want to leave the UK. However, if they mess any stage of the procedure up, that 60% of trade has to be given the full array of customs checks that would be applied to goods coming from, say, Botswana.

    More important than any of that is the acknowledgement that patterns of living between Scotland and England are far more intertwined than patterns of living between Northern Ireland and Ireland or the UK and the EU, and that the Scottish separatist movement will perform what amounts to an amputation of them.

    EDIT: In fact, it turns out the UK has agreed post-Brexit trade continuity with Botswana, so goods coming from Scotland won't even be on parity with them.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Ahahahahaha!! Hahahahaha! Hahaha! I think I may need to lie down.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    Ugly English Nationalism as opposed to the cuddly, friendly nationalism of Nicola and Co? and the nats on here?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,678

    rcs1000 said:

    I can't help feeling that the argument that there won't need to be too many checkpoints at the border somewhat misses the point...

    More generally, it is a curious feature of Scötterdämmerung that Brexit provides a strong political push towards independence, but at the same time makes independence even more impractical without very severe economic damage than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. Will the Scots really say 'Wow, Brexit is proving such a disaster, why don't we compound it big-time by introducing yet more barriers and fragmentation?' Maybe they will - it's a funny old world - but it won't end very happily if they do.

    There's a fabulous book by Parker called Global Catastrophe, looking at the impact of climate change in the 17th Century (the mini ice age) on politics. Time and time again, there would be crop failures, and this would be followed by revolutions. (People couldn't afford to eat, and instead of blaming the weather, they blamed the government.)

    Of course, civil wars only made things worse for the people, depressing crop yields further.

    I make this point because when things are bad, people say "how can things be worse?" Or "desperate times require desperate measures."
    Yep, that's true.

    Of course we should be a little circumspect about the polling. If, like most Scots, you are distinctly dischuffed by Brexit, hate Boris, hate the Tories generally, think the UK government is a shambles at best and probably a deliberately malign one at that, then telling an opinion pollster that you favour independence is a no-cost way of expressing your frustration. Experience suggests that such protest-polling doesn't always carry over into real elections or referendums with real-world consequences, especially since there's not going to be another referendum for a while at least.
    And there's this:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/1296386219480354816?s=20
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    guybrush said:

    Just took BBC off my bookmarks list. Always been my go-to site for news, but now the front page seems to be filled with stories about video games, celebrities, Youtubers, and general woke brainwashing. You have to scroll down a fair bit to get any actual news.

    Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?

    Funny you should mention that.

    I quit BBC news less than a fortnight ago and took up a digital subscription to The Times.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    rpjs said:

    Ahahahahaha!! Hahahahaha! Hahaha! I think I may need to lie down.
    I know.

    This has made my week!!! :cookie:
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,616

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    The major issue is surely not the number of crossings but the volume of traffic. 30,000 people cross the Northern Irish border every day; the Scottish border has 100,000 commuters alone, to say nothing of other traffic.
    Quiote so. But if the Scots rejion the EU, as they may well do, then the problem reverts to a rUK-EU issue, which will have been solved by then - won't it??
    If the Scottish government can negotiate to leave the UK while simultaneously negotiating to join the EU, without having any trained negotiators on staff already, and manage to coordinate leaving the UK with joining the EU to the very second, then the 60% of Scottish trade that goes to the UK will 'only' have to go through whatever checks rUK goods have to go through to get to the EU. The checks, incidentally, which the SNP say are so intolerable that they want to leave the UK. However, if they mess any stage of the procedure up, that 60% of trade has to be given the full array of customs checks that would be applied to goods coming from, say, Botswana.

    More important than any of that is the acknowledgement that patterns of living between Scotland and England are far more intertwined than patterns of living between Northern Ireland and Ireland or the UK and the EU, and that the Scottish separatist movement will perform what amounts to an amputation of them.

    EDIT: In fact, it turns out the UK has agreed post-Brexit trade continuity with Botswana, so goods coming from Scotland won't even be on parity with them.
    One thing not mentioned as yet is there are firms like mine which have someone working for them and living in scotland as accidental history. If scotland votes for independence then eventually there will be a different tax system and at that point firms like the one I work for may turn round and ask if they wish to run a separate payroll system for 1 or 2 people when the job holder really doesn't need to be in scotland. This will happen of course vice versa and will also be a thing with brexit now some eu nationals are wfh and moved back to their countries.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    Carnyx said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    We should have thought about that well before now.
    It was discussed in the indyref 1 white paper - and the 2010s, as I recall, was a time when the Navy and RAF were being run doiwn anyway (Nimrod, dockyards, and so on).

    More generally, there seems to be more interest by the Westminster Gmt in fighting expeditionary battles in the Middle & Far East - though at last something is being done about maritime patrol aircraft.
    So, as a Scottish nationalist, what do you suggest the answer is?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,345
    edited August 2020

    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    My wife's family come from generations of Scottish fishing folk but accepts, as I do, that she will not receive a vote in the referendum

    However, we are both unionists and will defend the union throughout any indy2 referendum, but will not become embroiled in the abuse from diehard nationalists

    There is a very long way to go before an indy2 vote is won and the experience of brexit, now 4 years down the line, indicates just how complex and difficult this will be and the nationalists 'having their cake and eating it' will reverberate through the land once more
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    I count 30, but I know Google maps sometimes marks old rights of way as roads which are now not passable to cars - footpaths only. There were a couple of places where the border runs up the middle of a road/path - but it's possible the map is inaccurate.

    Certainly nothing compared to the Northern Ireland border, and probably the Welsh.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    Bloody Nicola and her refusal to engage with opposing views (the view that being a crook is ok seeming to be one of them).

    https://twitter.com/abigdoob/status/1296466504901369858?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    Proper sentence for Abedi. 55 years behind bars, quite right too.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,616

    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
    Well I am not a russian bot. Nor do I think it likely the SNP would offer an army base to Putin. However if they don't join Nato I don't see there is much we could do if they decided to. No more than we could if France left Nato and invited him to do so.

    If the conditions we need to defend change then we need to change defense plans simple as that. In this case it sounds like an independent scotland requires them to change as presumably the scots wont have the airforce or navy necessary to deter the russians for a while.

    Nato is pretty much Kaput as the eu seem intent on pulling their own army together and Trump seems less than interested and I suspect if he wins again you might see a us withdrawal.

    The reality is we could object all we want but it would be empty words I don't see the EU or UK or Nato invading scotland to dislodge a base do you?
  • guybrush said:

    Just took BBC off my bookmarks list. Always been my go-to site for news, but now the front page seems to be filled with stories about video games, celebrities, Youtubers, and general woke brainwashing. You have to scroll down a fair bit to get any actual news.

    Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?

    I'm not sure where you're looking Mr Threepwood, but on the BBC front page on the home screen at the vert top of the screen without scrolling I can see:

    GCSE results stories x2
    Manchester Bombing brother jailed for 55 years
    Steve Bannon Arrested
    Russian opposition leader 'poisoned'
    Germany highest cases COVID cases since April (and 3 other COVID stories in same box)
    Man guilty of Tesco baby food blackmail plot
    Students to be offer first choice university places [take note @eek ]
    Croatia could be next on quarantine list
    Gyms and swimming pools could reopen in Scotland 31 Aug
    'Night stalker' rapist jailed for murder
    Nuclear site reusable in '313 years' time'
    AirBnB bans all house parties worldwide.

    They all seem news to me, with the bottom one perhaps the least serious but also on the bottom corner of the screen. Multiple law and order stories, multiple stories about murders, multiple COVID ones, multiple international ones.

    Not a single game story, not a single celebrity story, not a single Youtuber story, not one I'd call woke brainwashing. That's without any scrolling at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    Independence and Anti-independence are the absolute centre-piece of every SNP and Tory campaign in the recent past and foreseeable future in Scotland, and they seem able to squeeze Labour out - which suits them both.
  • Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    I count 30, but I know Google maps sometimes marks old rights of way as roads which are now not passable to cars - footpaths only. There were a couple of places where the border runs up the middle of a road/path - but it's possible the map is inaccurate.

    Certainly nothing compared to the Northern Ireland border, and probably the Welsh.
    The traffic volume is much more
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    PHE 28 day cut off, by day of death -

    image
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited August 2020
    https://i.ibb.co/YQB7SfG/BBC-News-homepage.png

    I'm not a defender of the BBC or the licence fee, but here's a screenshot of what I'm seeing on the BBC News homepage - no scrolling. Curious what is "woke" about any of this?

    Are other people seeing different stories?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,348
    Has Trump tweeted on this yet?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
    Well I am not a russian bot. Nor do I think it likely the SNP would offer an army base to Putin. However if they don't join Nato I don't see there is much we could do if they decided to. No more than we could if France left Nato and invited him to do so.

    If the conditions we need to defend change then we need to change defense plans simple as that. In this case it sounds like an independent scotland requires them to change as presumably the scots wont have the airforce or navy necessary to deter the russians for a while.

    Nato is pretty much Kaput as the eu seem intent on pulling their own army together and Trump seems less than interested and I suspect if he wins again you might see a us withdrawal.

    The reality is we could object all we want but it would be empty words I don't see the EU or UK or Nato invading scotland to dislodge a base do you?
    If they decided to do so it would precipitate a British Cuban missile crisis. There'd be a military blockade of the British Isles, which the US and EU would join in on, and Scotland would be utterly isolated.

    A neutral or unaligned Scotland would make everyone's lives much harder, but it could be accepted.

    It being an ally of Putin's Russia would threaten Western security and it would invite a proportionate response.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183

    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    I seemed to be about the only person who switched from support for the Union to Independence in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote, but now, notwithstanding the lower number of border crossings, the experience of the wrangling over the NI border has demonstrated to me how fundamentally wrong I view the idea of creating borders in general, and in creating a border on the island of Britain in particular.

    The temporary political ascendancy of little Englanders is as nothing by comparison to the lasting damage that creating such a division would cause.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Carnyx said:

    Alistair's post yesterday about only a dozen roads or so crossing the Scottish border had me thinking and looking at Google Maps. It's indeed the case that there are very few road crossings. I tried to find the most obscure one, and this is my preferred candidate.

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.1365422,-2.8115425,3a,75y,14.02h,70.79t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1siBJ3F5hVKrQVXpBdtVV_yw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    The major issue is surely not the number of crossings but the volume of traffic. 30,000 people cross the Northern Irish border every day; the Scottish border has 100,000 commuters alone, to say nothing of other traffic.
    Quiote so. But if the Scots rejion the EU, as they may well do, then the problem reverts to a rUK-EU issue, which will have been solved by then - won't it??
    If the Scottish government can negotiate to leave the UK while simultaneously negotiating to join the EU, without having any trained negotiators on staff already, and manage to coordinate leaving the UK with joining the EU to the very second, then the 60% of Scottish trade that goes to the UK will 'only' have to go through whatever checks rUK goods have to go through to get to the EU. The checks, incidentally, which the SNP say are so intolerable that they want to leave the UK. However, if they mess any stage of the procedure up, that 60% of trade has to be given the full array of customs checks that would be applied to goods coming from, say, Botswana.

    More important than any of that is the acknowledgement that patterns of living between Scotland and England are far more intertwined than patterns of living between Northern Ireland and Ireland or the UK and the EU, and that the Scottish separatist movement will perform what amounts to an amputation of them.

    EDIT: In fact, it turns out the UK has agreed post-Brexit trade continuity with Botswana, so goods coming from Scotland won't even be on parity with them.
    What you have enunciated is an excellent argument for accelerated joining of the EU, or at least the free trade area - as those negotiations of the EU with the UK should have been completed by then (as the Brexiters have been telling us for years).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,847
    FPT: Incidentally, cheers to Mr. B for the 12 tip on Biden becoming Democrat nominee.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985

    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    Ugly English Nationalism as opposed to the cuddly, friendly nationalism of Nicola and Co? and the nats on here?
    People driven mad by Brexit are desperate to support the most credible line of punishment they can find on the UK.

    Arch-Remainer Tim Farron has even noticed it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,678
    Pulpstar said:

    Independence and Anti-independence are the absolute centre-piece of every SNP and Tory campaign in the recent past and foreseeable future in Scotland, and they seem able to squeeze Labour out - which suits them both.
    Labour's (remaining) voters are more ambivalent on the question of independence. That odd Fabian YouGov poll, which did not break out SNP voters shows (the "others" will be preponderantly SNP, with some Green voters):

    Scottish independence is one of the most important issues facing the country and it is right that it gets a lot of attention:

    Con: 5
    Lab: 24
    "Other" (±SNP): 53

    Scottish independence distracts from other important issues that should get more attention
    Con: 94
    Lab: 70
    "Other" (±SNP): 29

    Interesting that "SNP" "Don't Knows" at 18% are a lot higher than Con (1%) or Lab (6%).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    rcs1000 said:

    I can't help feeling that the argument that there won't need to be too many checkpoints at the border somewhat misses the point...

    More generally, it is a curious feature of Scötterdämmerung that Brexit provides a strong political push towards independence, but at the same time makes independence even more impractical without very severe economic damage than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU. Will the Scots really say 'Wow, Brexit is proving such a disaster, why don't we compound it big-time by introducing yet more barriers and fragmentation?' Maybe they will - it's a funny old world - but it won't end very happily if they do.

    There's a fabulous book by Parker called Global Catastrophe, looking at the impact of climate change in the 17th Century (the mini ice age) on politics. Time and time again, there would be crop failures, and this would be followed by revolutions. (People couldn't afford to eat, and instead of blaming the weather, they blamed the government.)

    Of course, civil wars only made things worse for the people, depressing crop yields further.

    I make this point because when things are bad, people say "how can things be worse?" Or "desperate times require desperate measures."
    One of our resident nationalists made that very point only the day before yesterday.

    Things can always be worse.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
    Well I am not a russian bot. Nor do I think it likely the SNP would offer an army base to Putin. However if they don't join Nato I don't see there is much we could do if they decided to. No more than we could if France left Nato and invited him to do so.

    If the conditions we need to defend change then we need to change defense plans simple as that. In this case it sounds like an independent scotland requires them to change as presumably the scots wont have the airforce or navy necessary to deter the russians for a while.

    Nato is pretty much Kaput as the eu seem intent on pulling their own army together and Trump seems less than interested and I suspect if he wins again you might see a us withdrawal.

    The reality is we could object all we want but it would be empty words I don't see the EU or UK or Nato invading scotland to dislodge a base do you?
    If they decided to do so it would precipitate a British Cuban missile crisis. There'd be a military blockade of the British Isles, which the US and EU would join in on, and Scotland would be utterly isolated.

    A neutral or unaligned Scotland would make everyone's lives much harder, but it could be accepted.

    It being an ally of Putin's Russia would threaten Western security and it would invite a proportionate response.
    And this investment in Lossiemouth

    https://twitter.com/BoeingUK/status/1296363887470817280?s=09
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,752

    guybrush said:

    Just took BBC off my bookmarks list. Always been my go-to site for news, but now the front page seems to be filled with stories about video games, celebrities, Youtubers, and general woke brainwashing. You have to scroll down a fair bit to get any actual news.

    Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?

    I'm not sure where you're looking Mr Threepwood, but on the BBC front page on the home screen at the vert top of the screen without scrolling I can see:

    GCSE results stories x2
    Manchester Bombing brother jailed for 55 years
    Steve Bannon Arrested
    Russian opposition leader 'poisoned'
    Germany highest cases COVID cases since April (and 3 other COVID stories in same box)
    Man guilty of Tesco baby food blackmail plot
    Students to be offer first choice university places [take note @eek ]
    Croatia could be next on quarantine list
    Gyms and swimming pools could reopen in Scotland 31 Aug
    'Night stalker' rapist jailed for murder
    Nuclear site reusable in '313 years' time'
    AirBnB bans all house parties worldwide.

    They all seem news to me, with the bottom one perhaps the least serious but also on the bottom corner of the screen. Multiple law and order stories, multiple stories about murders, multiple COVID ones, multiple international ones.

    Not a single game story, not a single celebrity story, not a single Youtuber story, not one I'd call woke brainwashing. That's without any scrolling at all.
    Definitely time to get your way and abolish the licence fee then, with all that news going on the BBC website. Still, nice to see you being positive about the BBC.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    Ugly English Nationalism as opposed to the cuddly, friendly nationalism of Nicola and Co? and the nats on here?
    People driven mad by Brexit are desperate to support the most credible line of punishment they can find on the UK.

    Arch-Remainer Tim Farron has even noticed it.
    Quite. Massie is definitely in that camp.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853

    Pulpstar said:

    Independence and Anti-independence are the absolute centre-piece of every SNP and Tory campaign in the recent past and foreseeable future in Scotland, and they seem able to squeeze Labour out - which suits them both.
    Labour's (remaining) voters are more ambivalent on the question of independence. That odd Fabian YouGov poll, which did not break out SNP voters shows (the "others" will be preponderantly SNP, with some Green voters):

    Scottish independence is one of the most important issues facing the country and it is right that it gets a lot of attention:

    Con: 5
    Lab: 24
    "Other" (±SNP): 53

    Scottish independence distracts from other important issues that should get more attention
    Con: 94
    Lab: 70
    "Other" (±SNP): 29

    Interesting that "SNP" "Don't Knows" at 18% are a lot higher than Con (1%) or Lab (6%).
    Sure, Tory campaigns are just as much about independence as the SNP ones though - just the other side of the coin.
  • guybrush said:

    Just took BBC off my bookmarks list. Always been my go-to site for news, but now the front page seems to be filled with stories about video games, celebrities, Youtubers, and general woke brainwashing. You have to scroll down a fair bit to get any actual news.

    Replaced with Euronews and Sky. Trying to avoid the heavily opinionated papers. Any other reliable sources for news?

    I'm not sure where you're looking Mr Threepwood, but on the BBC front page on the home screen at the vert top of the screen without scrolling I can see:

    GCSE results stories x2
    Manchester Bombing brother jailed for 55 years
    Steve Bannon Arrested
    Russian opposition leader 'poisoned'
    Germany highest cases COVID cases since April (and 3 other COVID stories in same box)
    Man guilty of Tesco baby food blackmail plot
    Students to be offer first choice university places [take note @eek ]
    Croatia could be next on quarantine list
    Gyms and swimming pools could reopen in Scotland 31 Aug
    'Night stalker' rapist jailed for murder
    Nuclear site reusable in '313 years' time'
    AirBnB bans all house parties worldwide.

    They all seem news to me, with the bottom one perhaps the least serious but also on the bottom corner of the screen. Multiple law and order stories, multiple stories about murders, multiple COVID ones, multiple international ones.

    Not a single game story, not a single celebrity story, not a single Youtuber story, not one I'd call woke brainwashing. That's without any scrolling at all.
    Definitely time to get your way and abolish the licence fee then, with all that news going on the BBC website. Still, nice to see you being positive about the BBC.
    The news site is competent, the most competent part of the BBC as far as I'm concerned, but I see no justification for a TV tax to pay for an internet website. The licence fee shouldn't cross-subsidise non-TV issues (like radio or internet) in the first place anyway in my view - and its not as if its hard to get websites on the internet.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,616

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
    Well I am not a russian bot. Nor do I think it likely the SNP would offer an army base to Putin. However if they don't join Nato I don't see there is much we could do if they decided to. No more than we could if France left Nato and invited him to do so.

    If the conditions we need to defend change then we need to change defense plans simple as that. In this case it sounds like an independent scotland requires them to change as presumably the scots wont have the airforce or navy necessary to deter the russians for a while.

    Nato is pretty much Kaput as the eu seem intent on pulling their own army together and Trump seems less than interested and I suspect if he wins again you might see a us withdrawal.

    The reality is we could object all we want but it would be empty words I don't see the EU or UK or Nato invading scotland to dislodge a base do you?
    If they decided to do so it would precipitate a British Cuban missile crisis. There'd be a military blockade of the British Isles, which the US and EU would join in on, and Scotland would be utterly isolated.

    A neutral or unaligned Scotland would make everyone's lives much harder, but it could be accepted.

    It being an ally of Putin's Russia would threaten Western security and it would invite a proportionate response.
    I don't see why scotland being an ally threatens european security anymore than belarus being an ally. They are about equidistant from most european countries. More of a threat to UK security certainly.

    I would expect the US to do nothing in the unlikely event just as they did about crimea and the EU to do even less. Granted they would spout a lot of hot air and wring their hands.....actions not so much
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    edited August 2020
    scooped
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779

    Carnyx said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    We should have thought about that well before now.
    It was discussed in the indyref 1 white paper - and the 2010s, as I recall, was a time when the Navy and RAF were being run doiwn anyway (Nimrod, dockyards, and so on).

    More generally, there seems to be more interest by the Westminster Gmt in fighting expeditionary battles in the Middle & Far East - though at last something is being done about maritime patrol aircraft.
    So, as a Scottish nationalist, what do you suggest the answer is?
    Very unhappy with the lack of current emphasis of monitoring and defence of home waters/homeland/EEZ, actually - the Nimrod foulup was just the cherry on the cake so to speak, but other symptoms were the degradation of other aspects of maritime rescue cover such as the helicopters and the emergency tugs in the Minches. I have to go and tidy the house, so I won't say more than I'd like to see much more attention to those issues.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,467

    Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    Ugly English Nationalism as opposed to the cuddly, friendly nationalism of Nicola and Co? and the nats on here?
    Yes the Scots Nats on here are generally polite, fine people.

    Malcolm is the exception but it is part of his personal brand to be rude – and he applies his rudeness equally and fairly to all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    We should have thought about that well before now.
    It was discussed in the indyref 1 white paper - and the 2010s, as I recall, was a time when the Navy and RAF were being run doiwn anyway (Nimrod, dockyards, and so on).

    More generally, there seems to be more interest by the Westminster Gmt in fighting expeditionary battles in the Middle & Far East - though at last something is being done about maritime patrol aircraft.
    So, as a Scottish nationalist, what do you suggest the answer is?
    Very unhappy with the lack of current emphasis of monitoring and defence of home waters/homeland/EEZ, actually - the Nimrod foulup was just the cherry on the cake so to speak, but other symptoms were the degradation of other aspects of maritime rescue cover such as the helicopters and the emergency tugs in the Minches. I have to go and tidy the house, so I won't say more than I'd like to see much more attention to those issues.
    Ok, well that's a positive start.

    I just hope your fellow travellers are as sensible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Bannon said this all wouldn't end well...

    :lol:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,678
    Grauniad:

    Some important context to today’s news of former Trump advisor Steve Bannon’s arrest: Earlier this summer, attorney general William Barr attempted to prevent Audrey Strauss, the Southern District Court of New York’s (SDNY) interim district attorney who today arrested the president’s former ally, from heading the powerful district.

    Trump fired SDNY’s former district attorney Geoffrey Berman in June 2020 after a baffling series of events where Barr released a press statement, without Berman’s knowledge, that Berman is resigning. When Berman refused to confirm his resignation from the role, Barr announced that he asked Trump to fire Berman, and the president followed through.

    When asked why they sought to fire Berman, Barr and Trump pointed fingers at each other. Berman has overseen investigation and prosecution of key Trump allies like Rudy Giuliani and Michael Cohen. Upon his departure, Berman said that it was crucial that “important cases continue upended” in SDNY.

    That Berman did not leave without publicly expressing dismay forced Barr to give up a plan to replace Berman with a chief prosecutor from New Jersey, a move that critics say was the justice department’s attempt to wrestle control of SDNY.

    Instead, Audrey Strauss, who was Berman’s second-in-command, stepped up. Berman said that he was happy to leave SDNY in the hands of Strauss, saying she would continue the district’s “tradition of integrity and independence”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/aug/20/joe-biden-covid-19-coronavirus-donald-trump-kamala-harris-barack-obama-dnc-democratic-national-convention-us-politics-live
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    We should have thought about that well before now.
    It was discussed in the indyref 1 white paper - and the 2010s, as I recall, was a time when the Navy and RAF were being run doiwn anyway (Nimrod, dockyards, and so on).

    More generally, there seems to be more interest by the Westminster Gmt in fighting expeditionary battles in the Middle & Far East - though at last something is being done about maritime patrol aircraft.
    So, as a Scottish nationalist, what do you suggest the answer is?
    Very unhappy with the lack of current emphasis of monitoring and defence of home waters/homeland/EEZ, actually - the Nimrod foulup was just the cherry on the cake so to speak, but other symptoms were the degradation of other aspects of maritime rescue cover such as the helicopters and the emergency tugs in the Minches. I have to go and tidy the house, so I won't say more than I'd like to see much more attention to those issues.
    So what is this

    https://twitter.com/BoeingUK/status/1296363887470817280?s=09
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    FPT: Incidentally, cheers to Mr. B for the 12 tip on Biden becoming Democrat nominee.

    A few months back someone asked me for betting advice on here and I said Biden. I didn't put any money on (!) but I hope they are enjoying their profits. :-)
  • Growing up in Scotland with English parents, and now a Scot living in England, I was always a natural unionist. But Brexit has changed my mind. First, because of the ugly English nationalism that seems to have emerged in provincial England, which as a Scot and London resident is just utterly alien to me. And second, taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with no effort at all to carve out a special status or to offer another independence referendum to give Scots a fair choice of EU vs UK, has convinced me that the Union is a toxic relationship for Scotland. Who knows, maybe Galloway and Gove (a parcel of rogues if ever I saw one) might even give me a chance to vote Yes this time.

    Ugly English Nationalism as opposed to the cuddly, friendly nationalism of Nicola and Co? and the nats on here?
    Yes the Scots Nats on here are generally polite, fine people.

    Malcolm is the exception but it is part of his personal brand to be rude – and he applies his rudeness equally and fairly to all.
    Yes, calling people indiscriminately ‘morons’ for daring to have a different view. I guess it is equal. But he is an ill mannered oaf in his behaviour.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
    We seem to get on fine with policing the GI bit of the gap despite not being joined at the hip with G or I. You answer your own question: something which none of rUK, NATO, the EU or the US could tolerate, is probably not going to happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    One potential card is abolition of the UK parliament, to be replaced by the English parliament which holds joint precedence with the Welsh and Scots parliaments. All matters devolved, UK single market maintained - essentially the federalisation of the UK - but keeping the Union.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I think the most serious question about a split in the Union (the UK will automatically lose a lot of its global and international influence as a consequence) is defence.

    How do we protect the GIUK gap, and defend the British Isles and its surrounding waters against Russian incursions and espionage?

    At present, the SNP seem more interested in booting out British forces, and the nuclear deterrent, than seriously considering the closest of alliances.

    Putin must be licking his lips.

    Why would we mind them spying on the scottish after independence? What happens in the scots airspace or scots waters is something for the scots to decide surely.....hell if the scots after independence decided to offer Moscow an army base in the cairngorms I don't see why we should mind.
    Our defence is predicated on the security of both the Channel and the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap because that's where threats to our shipping lanes and physical security as an island develop.

    We could never tolerate (and neither could NATO, the EU or the US) what you suggest in your final sentence (which seems like something a Russian bot would write) as that army base would physically threaten us and could march straight down to London.
    Well I am not a russian bot. Nor do I think it likely the SNP would offer an army base to Putin. However if they don't join Nato I don't see there is much we could do if they decided to. No more than we could if France left Nato and invited him to do so.

    If the conditions we need to defend change then we need to change defense plans simple as that. In this case it sounds like an independent scotland requires them to change as presumably the scots wont have the airforce or navy necessary to deter the russians for a while.

    Nato is pretty much Kaput as the eu seem intent on pulling their own army together and Trump seems less than interested and I suspect if he wins again you might see a us withdrawal.

    The reality is we could object all we want but it would be empty words I don't see the EU or UK or Nato invading scotland to dislodge a base do you?
    If they decided to do so it would precipitate a British Cuban missile crisis. There'd be a military blockade of the British Isles, which the US and EU would join in on, and Scotland would be utterly isolated.

    A neutral or unaligned Scotland would make everyone's lives much harder, but it could be accepted.

    It being an ally of Putin's Russia would threaten Western security and it would invite a proportionate response.
    I don't see why scotland being an ally threatens european security anymore than belarus being an ally. They are about equidistant from most european countries. More of a threat to UK security certainly.

    I would expect the US to do nothing in the unlikely event just as they did about crimea and the EU to do even less. Granted they would spout a lot of hot air and wring their hands.....actions not so much
    The rUK wouldn't tolerate having Russian forces on the island of Great Britain only a few hundred miles march from London. It would threaten our entire defence strategy and home security. Not only ours, but also that of the US too which relies upon the UK alliance against Russia, and also has military bases and security apparatus here too. The EU wouldn't want the North Sea and Channel at risk of becoming a Russian lake either.

    A blockade and economic sanctions would probably do it but I can't think of a scenario more likely to lead to direct conflict between rUK and Scotland.

    It's a stupid idea.
This discussion has been closed.