politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a hug
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Does it do the opposite though and incentives a few anti NRA people to actually get out and vote.Nigelb said:Regarding last night's panic...
Donald Trump is losing the culture wars
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/06/trump-is-losing-the-culture-wars-392407
The Democratic attempt to crush the NRA is unlikely to do much for his reelection. "Every person who cares about the NRA is already voting for Trump," said a GOP pollster.0 -
An interesting testing development:
Swab-Seq: A high-throughput platform for massively scaled up SARS-CoV-2 testing
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.04.20167874v1
The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is due to the high rates of transmission by individuals who are asymptomatic at the time of transmission. Frequent, widespread testing of the asymptomatic population for SARS-CoV-2 is essential to suppress viral transmission and is a key element in safely reopening society. Despite increases in testing capacity, multiple challenges remain in deploying traditional reverse transcription and quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) tests at the scale required for population screening of asymptomatic individuals. We have developed SwabSeq, a high-throughput testing platform for SARS-CoV-2 that uses next-generation sequencing as a readout. SwabSeq employs sample-specific molecular barcodes to enable thousands of samples to be combined and simultaneously analyzed for the presence or absence of SARS-CoV-2 in a single run. Importantly, SwabSeq incorporates an in vitro RNA standard that mimics the viral amplicon, but can be distinguished by sequencing. This standard allows for end-point rather than quantitative PCR, improves quantitation, reduces requirements for automation and sample-to-sample normalization, enables purification-free detection, and gives better ability to call true negatives. We show that SwabSeq can test nasal and oral specimens for SARS-CoV-2 with or without RNA extraction while maintaining analytical sensitivity better than or comparable to that of fluorescence-based RT-qPCR tests. SwabSeq is simple, sensitive, flexible, rapidly scalable, inexpensive enough to test widely and frequently, and can provide a turn around time of 12 to 24 hours...0 -
Literally...Theuniondivvie said:
It's a fight to the death round here..Nigelb said:
I apologise for my pitiful attempt to out-pedant you.Theuniondivvie said:
Pedantry compels me to say that I didn't hear Trump, I've only read about it.Nigelb said:
You literally have.Theuniondivvie said:
Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.NickPalmer said:
I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".kle4 said:
Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=201 -
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=200 -
Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…0 -
OT I've had this new phone less than a week and have just received my first phishing text (purporting to be from HMRC).
Damn: I've just doxxed myself as being not-Liam Fox.0 -
What timeframe are you thinking of? Am I right in remembering you arguing for New Year, once BoJo has got his version of Brexit over the line?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is for some but I expect HMG to see real popularity problems as job loses mount.Mexicanpete said:
The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.BluestBlue said:
It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!IanB2 said:
LOL @ "only"Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to SkyScott_xP said:
With the spike in covid both here and abroad, largely due to social gatherings I expect that attendances at public events including football, pubs and music venues will be outlawed for at least six months and maybe longer
I also expect serious problems over schools re-opening and WFH destroying city centres.
Indeed as I have said, Boris is not the PM we need in this crisis and I am neutral on conservative v labour but it does seem to me a GNU will be needed at sometime in the near future with a new PM and Starmer as deputy
Incidentally, how much of the underpinning of the current Conservative lead is the "Brexit is in peril. Defend it with all your might" vote? What happens to that in January?0 -
For those anticipating the A Level debacle next week... a change to the appeals arrangement, schools can now appeal on behalf of a whole cohort that the grades awarded are unfair - individuals still can’t appeal their grades other than for alleged technical errors. For example, a school can claim that year-on-year improvements over the past should have been assumed to have continued this year or special circumstances mean this year’s cohort would have performed above and beyond expectations. Essentially, Government wanting to diffuse the backlash on Thursday and pass the buck to schools.
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Ideally in the early new year but difficult to see it.Stuartinromford said:
What timeframe are you thinking of? Am I right in remembering you arguing for New Year, once BoJo has got his version of Brexit over the line?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is for some but I expect HMG to see real popularity problems as job loses mount.Mexicanpete said:
The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.BluestBlue said:
It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!IanB2 said:
LOL @ "only"Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to SkyScott_xP said:
With the spike in covid both here and abroad, largely due to social gatherings I expect that attendances at public events including football, pubs and music venues will be outlawed for at least six months and maybe longer
I also expect serious problems over schools re-opening and WFH destroying city centres.
Indeed as I have said, Boris is not the PM we need in this crisis and I am neutral on conservative v labour but it does seem to me a GNU will be needed at sometime in the near future with a new PM and Starmer as deputy
Incidentally, how much of the underpinning of the current Conservative lead is the "Brexit is in peril. Defend it with all your might" vote? What happens to that in January?
I think the conservative lead is probably the trust they usually enjoy over the economy and the destruction Corbyn did to the Labour brand
If Boris no deals I have no idea of the consequences but it needs to be avoided if at all possible0 -
Mr. Max, cheers for posting that. Hmm, mildly surprised.0
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Confirmation of what we already knew.Nigelb said:Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…
If you are in a pub and one of the customers is infected, there is a very good chance that you will get it. One metre, two metres, ten metres. Still at risk.
Just look at Aberdeen.
Oh, and I can post from my laptop for the first time in ages. Hurrah!0 -
If this is accurate, the care, or lack of it for infected US service people is beyond negligent.
https://twitter.com/mlksmommy/status/1291385631550169090
https://twitter.com/mlksmommy/status/1291385639800311809
https://twitter.com/mlksmommy/status/12913856405301821510 -
Will we still get pictures of girls (and one boy for pc reasons) jumping in the air on seeing their A-level results?Rexel56 said:For those anticipating the A Level debacle next week... a change to the appeals arrangement, schools can now appeal on behalf of a whole cohort that the grades awarded are unfair - individuals still can’t appeal their grades other than for alleged technical errors. For example, a school can claim that year-on-year improvements over the past should have been assumed to have continued this year or special circumstances mean this year’s cohort would have performed above and beyond expectations. Essentially, Government wanting to diffuse the backlash on Thursday and pass the buck to schools.
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Does this only apply in pubs or do we need to get PB teachers mic'd up so they don't have to risk infecting the front row of class 3b in order to be heard at the back?SandyRentool said:
Confirmation of what we already knew.Nigelb said:Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…
If you are in a pub and one of the customers is infected, there is a very good chance that you will get it. One metre, two metres, ten metres. Still at risk.
Just look at Aberdeen.
Oh, and I can post from my laptop for the first time in ages. Hurrah!0 -
The Government have set up a department to try and make some headway into the scams and phishing emails (not sure about tests).DecrepiterJohnL said:OT I've had this new phone less than a week and have just received my first phishing text (purporting to be from HMRC).
Damn: I've just doxxed myself as being not-Liam Fox.
If you get an obvious phishing email then you forward it to
report@phishing.gov.uk
You get a the following reply:
"Thank you for sending on your suspicious message.
Timely alerts from people like you help us to act quickly and protect many more people from being affected.
As of 30/06/20 the number of reports received stand at more than 1,173,000 with the removal of 4,590 scams and 11,543 URLs.
Thank you for your continued support
Our investigations may take some time. Whilst the NCSC is unable to inform you of the outcome of its review, we can confirm that we do act upon every message received.
We’ll analyse the content of the suspect email and any websites it links to where appropriate.
If we discover activity that we believe is malicious, we may:
• seek to block the address the email came from, so it can no longer send emails
• work with website hosting companies to remove links to malicious websites
• raise awareness of commonly reported suspicious emails and methods used (via partners)"
For the sake of about 5 seconds to forward the email to them it seems like a worthwhile thing to me.
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Ten meters, less so, but agreed.SandyRentool said:
Confirmation of what we already knew.Nigelb said:Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…
If you are in a pub and one of the customers is infected, there is a very good chance that you will get it. One metre, two metres, ten metres. Still at risk.
Just look at Aberdeen.
Oh, and I can post from my laptop for the first time in ages. Hurrah!
Important paper, though, since as far as I'm aware, it's the time they've succeeded in culturing the virus from aerosol. It's not easy to so so, as in some respects the virus is quite fragile, and common sampling methods tend to degrade it - whereas it gets a (mechanically) very soft landing when inhaled.1 -
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:0 -
Not going to happen, the Tories have a majority of 80 and this is not WW2, the last time we had a GNUBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is for some but I expect HMG to see real popularity problems as job loses mount.Mexicanpete said:
The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.BluestBlue said:
It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!IanB2 said:
LOL @ "only"Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to SkyScott_xP said:
With the spike in covid both here and abroad, largely due to social gatherings I expect that attendances at public events including football, pubs and music venues will be outlawed for at least six months and maybe longer
I also expect serious problems over schools re-opening and WFH destroying city centres.
Indeed as I have said, Boris is not the PM we need in this crisis and I am neutral on conservative v labour but it does seem to me a GNU will be needed at sometime in the near future with a new PM and Starmer as deputy1 -
It gives a pratical use for all those "First" posts.Nigelb said:
I still can't.Big_G_NorthWales said:Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while
It's mildly irritating not to be able to post to a new thread until someone else does so first, but bearable.0 -
Florida or Wisconsin are the tipping points, Michigan and Pennsylvania only get Biden to 268 plus the Hillary states or 269 plus Nebraska 02edmundintokyo said:
It's really *not* close in the marginal states, the tipping point on the current polling is PA which is currently at Biden +6. That's not the kind of lead that's impossible to overturn, but it's not close.theakes said:Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"
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Since it is derived from the Latin Tamesis, that strikes me as improbable.Dura_Ace said:
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=200 -
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No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.0 -
How many millions of people do they have analysing these? If I forwarded only the ones I got, I’d swamp them.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Government have set up a department to try and make some headway into the scams and phishing emails (not sure about tests).DecrepiterJohnL said:OT I've had this new phone less than a week and have just received my first phishing text (purporting to be from HMRC).
Damn: I've just doxxed myself as being not-Liam Fox.
If you get an obvious phishing email then you forward it to
report@phishing.gov.uk
You get a the following reply:
"Thank you for sending on your suspicious message.
Timely alerts from people like you help us to act quickly and protect many more people from being affected.
As of 30/06/20 the number of reports received stand at more than 1,173,000 with the removal of 4,590 scams and 11,543 URLs.
Thank you for your continued support
Our investigations may take some time. Whilst the NCSC is unable to inform you of the outcome of its review, we can confirm that we do act upon every message received.
We’ll analyse the content of the suspect email and any websites it links to where appropriate.
If we discover activity that we believe is malicious, we may:
• seek to block the address the email came from, so it can no longer send emails
• work with website hosting companies to remove links to malicious websites
• raise awareness of commonly reported suspicious emails and methods used (via partners)"
For the sake of about 5 seconds to forward the email to them it seems like a worthwhile thing to me.0 -
And if you are a professional footballer do not go with other team mates to a pub and put a risk, as in this case, the Scottish Premier leagueSandyRentool said:
Confirmation of what we already knew.Nigelb said:Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…
If you are in a pub and one of the customers is infected, there is a very good chance that you will get it. One metre, two metres, ten metres. Still at risk.
Just look at Aberdeen.
Oh, and I can post from my laptop for the first time in ages. Hurrah!0 -
Except that the Romans may have latinised an existing name, and Latin doesn't natively do th (it is always a transliteration of Greek).ydoethur said:
Since it is derived from the Latin Tamesis, that strikes me as improbable.Dura_Ace said:
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20
Thame's my thoughts on the matter, anyway.0 -
Right.
34 needed to save the follow on.0 -
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.0 -
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In Welsh, where the parent word would have come from in that case, it’s Tafwys. So still a hard T.IshmaelZ said:
Except that the Romans may have latinised an existing name, and Latin doesn't natively do th (it is always a transliteration of Greek).ydoethur said:
Since it is derived from the Latin Tamesis, that strikes me as improbable.Dura_Ace said:
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20
Thame's my thoughts on the matter, anyway.
Moreover, that’s hardly relevant to a river in Connecticut, which was presumably not named before the Roman conquest of Britannia!0 -
Some of those mispronounciations are bad, but not all of them. For all I know, he might always have said minion-apolis, and plosma is surely just an accent.Scott_xP said:
Finland is another word Trump can't sayrottenborough said:
In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.geoffw said:
Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etcBluestBlue said:
KamAHla?DecrepiterJohnL said:
If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.ydoethur said:I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.
However, I will be very surprised indeed.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
CAmela?
KAHmala?
Khameleon!
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690
But I have to admit I find Totali-Terry-ism hilarious. Be very afraid of Terry Gilliam going into politics.0 -
It is very similar to WW2 in many ways in so far as the destruction to economies has only just begun and it looks as if a lot worse is to come, changing everything we used to know and understand about politics and economics.HYUFD said:
Not going to happen, the Tories have a majority of 80 and this is not WW2, the last time we had a GNUBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is for some but I expect HMG to see real popularity problems as job loses mount.Mexicanpete said:
The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.BluestBlue said:
It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!IanB2 said:
LOL @ "only"Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to SkyScott_xP said:
With the spike in covid both here and abroad, largely due to social gatherings I expect that attendances at public events including football, pubs and music venues will be outlawed for at least six months and maybe longer
I also expect serious problems over schools re-opening and WFH destroying city centres.
Indeed as I have said, Boris is not the PM we need in this crisis and I am neutral on conservative v labour but it does seem to me a GNU will be needed at sometime in the near future with a new PM and Starmer as deputy
This is an earthquake through pre conceived ideas0 -
Is that what happened? I though all professional football players had to sign that they remain isolated. Those players should at least be suspended, and the pubs which have had to close would probably have a good case to sue the football club(s) for damages.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And if you are a professional footballer do not go with other team mates to a pub and put a risk, as in this case, the Scottish Premier leagueSandyRentool said:
Confirmation of what we already knew.Nigelb said:Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…
If you are in a pub and one of the customers is infected, there is a very good chance that you will get it. One metre, two metres, ten metres. Still at risk.
Just look at Aberdeen.
Oh, and I can post from my laptop for the first time in ages. Hurrah!0 -
It would vary greatly depending on location and service. Fort Benning has long been known as "Camp Kill Yourself".Nigelb said:If this is accurate, the care, or lack of it for infected US service people is beyond negligent.
On my USN exchange on CVN-70 the rates got very good medical care. For some of them it would be the first time in their lives. On a 6 month deployment the ship's oral surgeon did over 3,000 surgeries and extracted 1,300 rotten teeth on a crew of just over 5,000!0 -
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.0 -
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Like Novak Djokovic.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Eight Aberdeen players self-isolating amid coronavirus lockdown - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53682640eristdoof said:
Is that what happened? I though all professional football players had to sign that they remain isolated. Those players should at least be suspended, and the pubs which have had to close would probably have a good case to sue the football club(s) for damages.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And if you are a professional footballer do not go with other team mates to a pub and put a risk, as in this case, the Scottish Premier leagueSandyRentool said:
Confirmation of what we already knew.Nigelb said:Clear experimental evidence that viable virus is present in aerosols, using an air sampling method less likely to degrade captured virus (a problem up until now):
Viable SARS-CoV-2 in the air of a hospital room with COVID-19 patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.03.20167395v1.full.pdf
…Our virus isolation work provides direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols can be viable and thus pose a risk for transmission of the virus. Furthermore, we show a clear progression of virus-induced cytopathic effects in cell culture, and demonstrate that the recovered virus can be serially propagated. Moreover, we demonstrate an essential link: the viruses we isolated in material collected in four air sampling runs and the virus in a newly admitted symptomatic patient in the room were identical. These findings strengthen the notion that airborne transmission of viable SARS-CoV-2 is likely and plays a critical role in the spread of COVID-19…
If you are in a pub and one of the customers is infected, there is a very good chance that you will get it. One metre, two metres, ten metres. Still at risk.
Just look at Aberdeen.
Oh, and I can post from my laptop for the first time in ages. Hurrah!0 -
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.0 -
On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak0
-
The river is presumably named after the proper Thames (given that it is in New London) and I assume the argument is that all English speakers said Thems in those days, we changed and the Connecticutians stuck with the original. So the CT name dates as far back as the English one does.ydoethur said:
In Welsh, where the parent word would have come from in that case, it’s Tafwys. So still a hard T.IshmaelZ said:
Except that the Romans may have latinised an existing name, and Latin doesn't natively do th (it is always a transliteration of Greek).ydoethur said:
Since it is derived from the Latin Tamesis, that strikes me as improbable.Dura_Ace said:
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20
Thame's my thoughts on the matter, anyway.
Moreover, that’s hardly relevant to a river in Connecticut, which was presumably not named before the Roman conquest of Britannia!0 -
Boris is going to 'No Deal', maybe he personally doesn't want to (who knows what he really thinks?), but Cummings does as does my MP, Suella, and a lot of his cabinet.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Ideally in the early new year but difficult to see it.Stuartinromford said:
What timeframe are you thinking of? Am I right in remembering you arguing for New Year, once BoJo has got his version of Brexit over the line?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is for some but I expect HMG to see real popularity problems as job loses mount.Mexicanpete said:
The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.BluestBlue said:
It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!IanB2 said:
LOL @ "only"Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to SkyScott_xP said:
With the spike in covid both here and abroad, largely due to social gatherings I expect that attendances at public events including football, pubs and music venues will be outlawed for at least six months and maybe longer
I also expect serious problems over schools re-opening and WFH destroying city centres.
Indeed as I have said, Boris is not the PM we need in this crisis and I am neutral on conservative v labour but it does seem to me a GNU will be needed at sometime in the near future with a new PM and Starmer as deputy
Incidentally, how much of the underpinning of the current Conservative lead is the "Brexit is in peril. Defend it with all your might" vote? What happens to that in January?
I think the conservative lead is probably the trust they usually enjoy over the economy and the destruction Corbyn did to the Labour brand
If Boris no deals I have no idea of the consequences but it needs to be avoided if at all possible0 -
And on the other hand, "I'm announcing that my administrationizshit" was, for once, honest.eristdoof said:
Some of those mispronounciations are bad, but not all of them. For all I know, he might always have said minion-apolis, and plosma is surely just an accent.Scott_xP said:
Finland is another word Trump can't sayrottenborough said:
In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.geoffw said:
Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etcBluestBlue said:
KamAHla?DecrepiterJohnL said:
If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.ydoethur said:I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.
However, I will be very surprised indeed.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
CAmela?
KAHmala?
Khameleon!
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690
But I have to admit I find Totali-Terry-ism hilarious. Be very afraid of Terry Gilliam going into politics.0 -
I guess army recruits are a bit more disposable ?Dura_Ace said:
It would vary greatly depending on location and service. Fort Benning has long been known as "Camp Kill Yourself".Nigelb said:If this is accurate, the care, or lack of it for infected US service people is beyond negligent.
On my USN exchange on CVN-70 the rates got very good medical care. For some of them it would be the first time in their lives. On a 6 month deployment the ship's oral surgeon did over 3,000 surgeries and extracted 1,300 rotten teeth on a crew of just over 5,000!0 -
More likely they pronounced it as written, and came up with a soft ‘th’ sound as a result. The Americans do try to phoneticise everything.IshmaelZ said:
The river is presumably named after the proper Thames (given that it is in New London) and I assume the argument is that all English speakers said Thems in those days, we changed and the Connecticutians stuck with the original. So the CT name dates as far back as the English one does.ydoethur said:
In Welsh, where the parent word would have come from in that case, it’s Tafwys. So still a hard T.IshmaelZ said:
Except that the Romans may have latinised an existing name, and Latin doesn't natively do th (it is always a transliteration of Greek).ydoethur said:
Since it is derived from the Latin Tamesis, that strikes me as improbable.Dura_Ace said:
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20
Thame's my thoughts on the matter, anyway.
Moreover, that’s hardly relevant to a river in Connecticut, which was presumably not named before the Roman conquest of Britannia!
Of course, there are others that did undoubtedly go the other way - Berkeley springs to mind.
If it had been pronounced to sound like ‘the’ it would almost certainly have been Anglicised as Yames, which would have been interesting.0 -
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
0 -
Well, I suppose Brazil is already tending towards TotaliTerryism...eristdoof said:
Some of those mispronounciations are bad, but not all of them. For all I know, he might always have said minion-apolis, and plosma is surely just an accent.Scott_xP said:
Finland is another word Trump can't sayrottenborough said:
In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.geoffw said:
Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etcBluestBlue said:
KamAHla?DecrepiterJohnL said:
If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.ydoethur said:I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.
However, I will be very surprised indeed.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
CAmela?
KAHmala?
Khameleon!
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690
But I have to admit I find Totali-Terry-ism hilarious. Be very afraid of Terry Gilliam going into politics.0 -
Biden can win even if FLA remains Republican.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
If FLA switches to Democrat though, it is hard to imagine that the swing won't pick up the 9 extra EC votes in other states needed for Biden to win. So from the Republican point of view Florida is a must win.1 -
Buttler looking as alarmingly marooned as Joe Root was.0
-
Its a possibility. Its also a possibility that the roulette table will spin 13 a dozen times in a row. I wouldn't recommend staking your income on that though.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
You said it "will be close", that does not follow. Could be and will be are two very different things, he could easily lose heavily and still do better than Carter.
If I was to say it will be the weather somewhere is warmer than than North Pole but colder than Britain in November that would not mean that the temperature is moderate.0 -
On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
1 -
Oooh, clever. It took me a while to get that one.Nigelb said:
Well, I suppose Brazil is already tending towards TotaliTerryism...eristdoof said:
Some of those mispronounciations are bad, but not all of them. For all I know, he might always have said minion-apolis, and plosma is surely just an accent.Scott_xP said:
Finland is another word Trump can't sayrottenborough said:
In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.geoffw said:
Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etcBluestBlue said:
KamAHla?DecrepiterJohnL said:
If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.ydoethur said:I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.
However, I will be very surprised indeed.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
CAmela?
KAHmala?
Khameleon!
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690
But I have to admit I find Totali-Terry-ism hilarious. Be very afraid of Terry Gilliam going into politics.0 -
Buttler is not a test cricketer0
-
A good citizenship test, inviting someone to pronounce those two sentences correctly.RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
0 -
Is that only for phishing emails claiming to be from HMRC or does it apply to eg phishing emails claiming to be from RBS etc?Richard_Tyndall said:
The Government have set up a department to try and make some headway into the scams and phishing emails (not sure about tests).DecrepiterJohnL said:OT I've had this new phone less than a week and have just received my first phishing text (purporting to be from HMRC).
Damn: I've just doxxed myself as being not-Liam Fox.
If you get an obvious phishing email then you forward it to
report@phishing.gov.uk
You get a the following reply:
"Thank you for sending on your suspicious message.
Timely alerts from people like you help us to act quickly and protect many more people from being affected.
As of 30/06/20 the number of reports received stand at more than 1,173,000 with the removal of 4,590 scams and 11,543 URLs.
Thank you for your continued support
Our investigations may take some time. Whilst the NCSC is unable to inform you of the outcome of its review, we can confirm that we do act upon every message received.
We’ll analyse the content of the suspect email and any websites it links to where appropriate.
If we discover activity that we believe is malicious, we may:
• seek to block the address the email came from, so it can no longer send emails
• work with website hosting companies to remove links to malicious websites
• raise awareness of commonly reported suspicious emails and methods used (via partners)"
For the sake of about 5 seconds to forward the email to them it seems like a worthwhile thing to me.0 -
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.0 -
If anyone is willing to offer two sided odds on what happens in Wisconsin if Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania I would be willing to take a side.0
-
Launceston, Tasmania is apparently Lawn cess ton, as written, when the Cornish version is Lawnston to English people who think they know how to say it, and Lanson or Larnson to locals.ydoethur said:
More likely they pronounced it as written, and came up with a soft ‘th’ sound as a result. The Americans do try to phoneticise everything.IshmaelZ said:
The river is presumably named after the proper Thames (given that it is in New London) and I assume the argument is that all English speakers said Thems in those days, we changed and the Connecticutians stuck with the original. So the CT name dates as far back as the English one does.ydoethur said:
In Welsh, where the parent word would have come from in that case, it’s Tafwys. So still a hard T.IshmaelZ said:
Except that the Romans may have latinised an existing name, and Latin doesn't natively do th (it is always a transliteration of Greek).ydoethur said:
Since it is derived from the Latin Tamesis, that strikes me as improbable.Dura_Ace said:
In Connecticut it's pronounced θeɪmz not tɛmz. Somebody once told me that was the original English pronunciation but that "fact" has the whiff of sub-QI bullshit about it.Fysics_Teacher said:
I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?Theuniondivvie said:Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.
https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20
Thame's my thoughts on the matter, anyway.
Moreover, that’s hardly relevant to a river in Connecticut, which was presumably not named before the Roman conquest of Britannia!
Of course, there are others that did undoubtedly go the other way - Berkeley springs to mind.
If it had been pronounced to sound like ‘the’ it would almost certainly have been Anglicised as Yames, which would have been interesting.
0 -
We also talked about the wonders of Teesside!ydoethur said:
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.0 -
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.0 -
Any word on the proposed Thornaby Wall?RochdalePioneers said:
We also talked about the wonders of Teesside!ydoethur said:
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.0 -
Is @RochdalePioneers not a member of the public ?malcolmg said:
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.2 -
Well, he’s already met @RochdalePioneers. So he’s met at least some members of the public, even if not Scottish ones.malcolmg said:
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.1 -
Short conversation then?RochdalePioneers said:
We also talked about the wonders of Teesside!ydoethur said:
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.0 -
And on the other hand, "I'm announcing that my administrationizshit" was, for once, honest.eristdoof said:
Some of those mispronounciations are bad, but not all of them. For all I know, he might always have said minion-apolis, and plosma is surely just an accent.Scott_xP said:
Finland is another word Trump can't sayrottenborough said:
In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.geoffw said:
Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etcBluestBlue said:
KamAHla?DecrepiterJohnL said:
If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.ydoethur said:I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.
However, I will be very surprised indeed.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
CAmela?
KAHmala?
Khameleon!
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690
But I have to admit I find Totali-Terry-ism hilarious. Be very afraid of Terry Gilliam going into politics.-1 -
I agree I can still see Biden winning comfortably by up to 6% nationally including narrowly winning Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I'm still cautious about those 3 states.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
I see Trump winning 45% or so nationally not much down on the 46.1% he got last time but people may be more motivated to vote against him.
I have the likely order of 'swing states' as something like MI>PA>WI>FL>AZ>NC>OH>GA>IA>TX0 -
You have to give him marks for effort.Big_G_NorthWales said:Buttler is not a test cricketer
He's just not very good in the long form game.2 -
Rubbish keeper.Big_G_NorthWales said:Buttler is not a test cricketer
When did England last have a decent keeper?0 -
How many needed to win Electoral CollegeGary_Burton said:
I agree I can still see Biden winning comfortably by up to 6% nationally including narrowly winning Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I'm still cautious about those 3 states.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
I see Trump winning 45% or so nationally not much down on the 46.1% he got last time but people may be more motivated to vote against him.
I have the likely order of 'swing states' as something like MI>PA>WI>FL>AZ>NC>OH>GA>IA>TX0 -
Teesside is an interesting subject.SandyRentool said:
Short conversation then?RochdalePioneers said:
We also talked about the wonders of Teesside!ydoethur said:
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.
Isn't it the place with the maddest Mayor in the country?0 -
APE Knott?bigjohnowls said:
Rubbish keeper.Big_G_NorthWales said:Buttler is not a test cricketer
When did England last have a decent keeper?0 -
Least accessible airport by rail despite there being a station with same name?MattW said:
Teesside is an interesting subject.SandyRentool said:
Short conversation then?RochdalePioneers said:
We also talked about the wonders of Teesside!ydoethur said:
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.
Isn't it the place with the maddest Mayor in the country?0 -
RW Taylor followed him and was an even better specialist keeperMattW said:
APE Knott?bigjohnowls said:
Rubbish keeper.Big_G_NorthWales said:Buttler is not a test cricketer
When did England last have a decent keeper?0 -
Blimey, Buttler’s hit a boundary.0
-
Jack Russell.bigjohnowls said:
Rubbish keeper.Big_G_NorthWales said:Buttler is not a test cricketer
When did England last have a decent keeper?
Apart from, briefly, Chris Read and Warren Hegg.0 -
Bugger.
Now Pope’s out, which sounds like an uncharacteristic stand on gay rights by the Catholic hierarchy, England are going to face a huge deficit even though they’ve just scraped past the follow on.
No batsmen left. Just Buttler and the bowlers.
They got the balance of this side wrong.0 -
Least accessible airport by air!bigjohnowls said:
Least accessible airport by rail despite there being a station with same name?MattW said:
Teesside is an interesting subject.SandyRentool said:
Short conversation then?RochdalePioneers said:
We also talked about the wonders of Teesside!ydoethur said:
So if we find he quotes this random businessman he met on the Wemyss Bay to Rothesay ferry who told him how wonderful furlough was, he’s telling the truth and it was you?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Wemyss Bay to Rothesay. Have told him that Furlough has saved our companyydoethur said:
Really? Which one?RochdalePioneers said:On a CalMac ferry with Rishi Sunak
Well, at least you had something nice to say to him. I hope he was duly amiable.
Isn't it the place with the maddest Mayor in the country?0 -
He chatted to people out on the rear deck. Scottish couple on nearby seats, also not Tories, also hugely impressed by what he's done so far.ydoethur said:
Well, he’s already met @RochdalePioneers. So he’s met at least some members of the public, even if not Scottish ones.malcolmg said:
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.1 -
Just the 1st 3 - the Rust Belt - does it for Biden assuming he doesn't lose any.bigjohnowls said:
How many needed to win Electoral CollegeGary_Burton said:
I agree I can still see Biden winning comfortably by up to 6% nationally including narrowly winning Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I'm still cautious about those 3 states.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
I see Trump winning 45% or so nationally not much down on the 46.1% he got last time but people may be more motivated to vote against him.
I have the likely order of 'swing states' as something like MI>PA>WI>FL>AZ>NC>OH>GA>IA>TX
My EC spread for Trump right now is 185/195.
Info only - not taking bets - but I will update it weekly so that people know what's going on.0 -
I think Trump's national vote share will be up on 2016. But Biden's will be up more.Gary_Burton said:
I agree I can still see Biden winning comfortably by up to 6% nationally including narrowly winning Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I'm still cautious about those 3 states.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
I see Trump winning 45% or so nationally not much down on the 46.1% he got last time but people may be more motivated to vote against him.
I have the likely order of 'swing states' as something like MI>PA>WI>FL>AZ>NC>OH>GA>IA>TX
If Trump's vote share is down on 2016 it is GOP apocalypse scenario time.0 -
I'm not sure how Trump gets a higher vote share, he's lost a lot of suburban white women voters and not picked up any others. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 43%.Alistair said:
I think Trump's national vote share will be up on 2016. But Biden's will be up more.Gary_Burton said:
I agree I can still see Biden winning comfortably by up to 6% nationally including narrowly winning Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I'm still cautious about those 3 states.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
I see Trump winning 45% or so nationally not much down on the 46.1% he got last time but people may be more motivated to vote against him.
I have the likely order of 'swing states' as something like MI>PA>WI>FL>AZ>NC>OH>GA>IA>TX
If Trump's vote share is down on 2016 it is GOP apocalypse scenario time.0 -
Death Pool news:
Simon Calder looking fit and well on the BBC.
Isn't he planning a trip to Brazil or something?0 -
The 538 numbers give Biden a slightly bigger lead in Wisconsin than PA (7.4% vs 6%); I can't remember which was closer in 2016 but there wasn't much in it.HYUFD said:
Florida or Wisconsin are the tipping points, Michigan and Pennsylvania only get Biden to 268 plus the Hillary states or 269 plus Nebraska 02edmundintokyo said:
It's really *not* close in the marginal states, the tipping point on the current polling is PA which is currently at Biden +6. That's not the kind of lead that's impossible to overturn, but it's not close.theakes said:Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"
But the point remains either way: Biden has a slightly bigger lead nationally than in (whichever of those is) the tipping point state, but it's not a monster gap, and neither is "close" on current polling.0 -
0
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Trump is doing slightly better than Truman was at this point. But Truman has a big spike in popularity incoming which I can't see Trump matching.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:0 -
He could do better with conservatives - there are quite a few people out there who were never-Trump-ish in 2016 and went Hillary, Libertarian or Stay Home who are now behind their leader.MaxPB said:
I'm not sure how Trump gets a higher vote share, he's lost a lot of suburban white women voters and not picked up any others. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 43%.
Alternatively voters on the Dem side might stay home over the rona / fail to get their postal votes counted / get arrested on the way to the polls, which would increase Trump's share without him needing to add any voters.0 -
That is a world record for a Tory in Scotland I must admit. Still disgraceful they do not meet Scottish government and pretend they are giving us charity when it is our own money. Still an erchie in my mind if not the worst of them.ydoethur said:
Well, he’s already met @RochdalePioneers. So he’s met at least some members of the public, even if not Scottish ones.malcolmg said:
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.0 -
They never spend much time in the central belt despite its population share, they are very island-centric. Puzzling, that.RochdalePioneers said:
He chatted to people out on the rear deck. Scottish couple on nearby seats, also not Tories, also hugely impressed by what he's done so far.ydoethur said:
Well, he’s already met @RochdalePioneers. So he’s met at least some members of the public, even if not Scottish ones.malcolmg said:
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.0 -
Other Candidates in 2016 got 6%. It is realistic that Trumps vote share stays the same but Biden gets a higher share than Clinton did.MaxPB said:
I'm not sure how Trump gets a higher vote share, he's lost a lot of suburban white women voters and not picked up any others. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 43%.Alistair said:
I think Trump's national vote share will be up on 2016. But Biden's will be up more.Gary_Burton said:
I agree I can still see Biden winning comfortably by up to 6% nationally including narrowly winning Florida, Arizona and North Carolina but I'm still cautious about those 3 states.HYUFD said:
If Trump holds all his 2016 states bar Michigan and Pennsylvania he is re elected by the narrowest of margins, that is still a possibility though it would be an even closer EC vote than Bush v Gore 2000 with Florida again likely decisivePhilip_Thompson said:
No that's a logical fallacy.HYUFD said:
Trump's approval is below Bush's in 2004 or Obama's in 2012 who both won but above Bush Snr' s in 1992 or Carter's in 1980 who both lost which suggests it could still be very closePhilip_Thompson said:
No it does not. That does not follow.HYUFD said:
Which suggests this will be the closest Presidential re election vote since WW2rottenborough said:
I strongly expect this will not be as close as 2004. It may not even be as close as 2012.
Bush 2004 was a very narrow victory for Bush - and he's less popular than that.
Carter 1980 was a massive landslide for Reagan, while Bush Snr 1992 was an electoral vote landslide for Clinton.
So he's less popular than a narrowly elected President, but more popular than landslide defeats. The idea that means it will be close therefore is a logical fallacy - its entirely possible it will be a heavy but not landslide defeat.
Bush Snr got 168 electoral votes,
Dubya Bush got 286 electoral votes.
More than 168 but less than 286 is a wide range of possibilities which does not automatically mean it will be close. In fact its hard to be close if he's getting less than 286.
I see Trump winning 45% or so nationally not much down on the 46.1% he got last time but people may be more motivated to vote against him.
I have the likely order of 'swing states' as something like MI>PA>WI>FL>AZ>NC>OH>GA>IA>TX
If Trump's vote share is down on 2016 it is GOP apocalypse scenario time.
I stronlgy disagree with Alastair though that a Trump voteshare of 45% means a Democrat land slide.0 -
Epic Michigan poll for Joe today:
election Mich. Jul 25-30, 2020
B+ EPIC-MRA
600 LV
Biden 51%
Biden +11
Trump 40%
Jorgensen 3%2 -
Any phishing. TV licencing is the big one at the moment. Nut they are happy to get banks etc as well.Philip_Thompson said:
Is that only for phishing emails claiming to be from HMRC or does it apply to eg phishing emails claiming to be from RBS etc?Richard_Tyndall said:
The Government have set up a department to try and make some headway into the scams and phishing emails (not sure about tests).DecrepiterJohnL said:OT I've had this new phone less than a week and have just received my first phishing text (purporting to be from HMRC).
Damn: I've just doxxed myself as being not-Liam Fox.
If you get an obvious phishing email then you forward it to
report@phishing.gov.uk
You get a the following reply:
"Thank you for sending on your suspicious message.
Timely alerts from people like you help us to act quickly and protect many more people from being affected.
As of 30/06/20 the number of reports received stand at more than 1,173,000 with the removal of 4,590 scams and 11,543 URLs.
Thank you for your continued support
Our investigations may take some time. Whilst the NCSC is unable to inform you of the outcome of its review, we can confirm that we do act upon every message received.
We’ll analyse the content of the suspect email and any websites it links to where appropriate.
If we discover activity that we believe is malicious, we may:
• seek to block the address the email came from, so it can no longer send emails
• work with website hosting companies to remove links to malicious websites
• raise awareness of commonly reported suspicious emails and methods used (via partners)"
For the sake of about 5 seconds to forward the email to them it seems like a worthwhile thing to me.1 -
I can see Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin being called pretty quickly for Joe, and that'll be that.0
-
A good reason not to go FKK* if you like German Beer!Nigelb said:By way of light relief...
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1291699161365086209
Freiekörperkulture: literally translates as Free Body Culture.0 -
You were just complaining that they spend all their time cooped up and not meeting the people, and now you are complaining about the reverse?malcolmg said:
That is a world record for a Tory in Scotland I must admit. Still disgraceful they do not meet Scottish government and pretend they are giving us charity when it is our own money. Still an erchie in my mind if not the worst of them.ydoethur said:
Well, he’s already met @RochdalePioneers. So he’s met at least some members of the public, even if not Scottish ones.malcolmg said:
Another clown that will come up , hide somewhere for the day, never meet a member of the public or especially the government and run back to England.Scott_xP said:
Wonder if moothie and her new lapdog will be there to lick his butt.0 -
Alec Stewart was after Russel, and I would class him as a decent keeper.ydoethur said:
Jack Russell.bigjohnowls said:
Rubbish keeper.Big_G_NorthWales said:Buttler is not a test cricketer
When did England last have a decent keeper?
Apart from, briefly, Chris Read and Warren Hegg.
Of course the best ever England (wicket) keeper was Alan Knot, but that's over 40 years ago now.0 -
His computer was taken in a flash.Nigelb said:By way of light relief...
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/12916991613650862090
This discussion has been closed.