politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a hug

Susan Rice may have been promised Secretary of State.

Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while

So much speculation on this. That's why I think betting on this market is sub-optimal. It's not like a general election where there are opinion polls of the electorate, etc. Here, all you're doing s trying to see into one man's mind.

We know he is sexist, because he is excluding all men, and he may be racist too, excluding whites from consideration, or at least heavily disadvantaging them, though he hasn't explicitly banned them afaik. But other than that, it's impossible to guess how he'd choose between Rice and Harris or someone else. It's not like he's ever made a VP pick before so there's no track record to go on.

Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

malcolmg said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person

What chance he would even last one term, he has trouble remembering who he is at present. VP pick is almost certain to end up in the hot seat.

If he wins.

I think he will. Certainly I hope he will. But we’ve all underestimated Trump before, and Biden is scarcely the strongest candidate the Dems have ever put forward.

Alasdair_ said:

Susan Rice may have been promised Secretary of State.

Or Chief of Staff since Biden and Rice have such an easy working relationship, or anything at all. And how binding is a Granita Pact anyway?

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky

It may not be great to go on these markets because your counter-party may be an insider with better information than you. However I wonder if the value isn't with "neither of the above". There seems to have been a report that it was down to these two from somebody who claimed to be familiar with Biden's thinking, but generally the closer someone is to knowing the less likely they are to leak, and even if it's well-sourced it could easily be disinformation.

Jonathan said:

Will Trump stick with Pence?

Who would take Trump's shilling?

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person

What chance he would even last one term, he has trouble remembering who he is at present. VP pick is almost certain to end up in the hot seat.

If he wins.

I think he will. Certainly I hope he will. But we’ve all underestimated Trump before, and Biden is scarcely the strongest candidate the Dems have ever put forward.

Just needs Biden to have one senior moment in the debates - and it all starts unravelling for the Dems.... And God forbid, four more years of Trump.

America. Plutocracy delivering either gerontocracy or kleptocracy.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

However, I will be very surprised indeed.

If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881

KamAHla?

CAmela?

KAHmala?

Khameleon!

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1291459601788010496

He's not even trying with the facepaint any more. He looks like he just dipped his face into a bowl of Brown Windsor soup.

He looks like a former colleague on a lads night out, who passed out pissed, face-down into his balti....

Dura_Ace said:

He's not even trying with the facepaint any more. He looks like he just dipped his face into a bowl of Brown Windsor soup.

https://twitter.com/daveRob0/status/1288743079097360384

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky

LOL @ "only"

I would expect it to have been much more to be honest

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky

LOL @ "only"

It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!

Finally managed to sign on for comments. Not sure what happened, there were a lot of threads I wanted to comment.

Foxy said:

Yes, I am not convinced the debates will do Grandpa Joe any harm. Trump is at least as likely to say something stupid.

Debates rarely make much difference, and are played very defensively. Biden survived the Primary debates well enough.

Biden survived the Democrat debates. Trump can't read his own speech.

Foxy said:

edmundintokyo said:

MarqueeMark said:

Just needs Biden to have one senior moment in the debates - and it all starts unravelling for the Dems.... And God forbid, four more years of Trump.

I wonder if it would, though. Opinion about Trump is pretty polarized and Trump himself isn't exactly a model of sober managerial competence. It's not like 2016 where there were a lot of undecided voters many of whom thought Trump would do an OK job because he was good at business.

Yes, I am not convinced the debates will do Grandpa Joe any harm. Trump is at least as likely to say something stupid.

Debates rarely make much difference, and are played very defensively. Biden survived the Primary debates well enough.

Yes, Trump was a total mess against Hillary (albeit he hit his talking points a lot without regard to the actual debate) and presidents are normally pretty poor on their first debate after being surrounded by yes-men for four years.

It seems like quite a mad strategy to build up the idea that Biden can't speak in coherent sentences ahead of a debate where Biden's going to speak in coherent sentences and Trump isn't, but with Trump you can never quite tell how much of it's a confused old man lashing out at random and how much is cunningly astute low politics.

‪Fun fact - five of the last seven published opinion polls have actually shown small moves to Labour.‬

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

theakes said:

Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"

It's really *not* close in the marginal states, the tipping point on the current polling is PA which is currently at Biden +6. That's not the kind of lead that's impossible to overturn, but it's not close.

Theuniondivvie said:

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

US Dem VP slot

Betfair concurs with OGH this is a two-runner race (or a surprise!).

Kamala Harris: 1.95
Susan Rice: 3.65
Val Demings: 21
Tammy Duckworth: 24
Elizabeth Warren: 27
Gretchen Whitmer: 29
Michelle Obama: 30
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 46
Karen Bass: 55
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 70
Stacey Abrams: 85
Hillary Clinton: 140

Alasdair_ said:

Susan Rice may have been promised Secretary of State.

That would make a a lot of sense.

Given that she has no experience of elective politics, and that the VP pick is so likely to become a Presidential candidate....

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

Does Trump know how many greenbacks the Chinese have in their vaults?

rottenborough said:

Morning,

Just testing I'm back in. Presumably we have had some kind of tech issue overnight?

Almost the opposite: @rcs1000 fixed the login issues that afflicted some PBers, which logged everyone out as a side-effect.

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

Does Trump know how many greenbacks the Chinese have in their vaults?

What of it? If they flood the market the Fed declares an emergency and buys it all up. Owning another nation's debt is not any real tactical advantage in the era of central bank activism.

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.

I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.

Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

Well that might annoy the gamer vote:

https://twitter.com/Slasher/status/1291557056256901126?s=09

Theuniondivvie said:

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

Wonderfully withering response.
https://twitter.com/losttourist/status/1291642037113102336

BluestBlue said:

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky

LOL @ "only"

It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it!

The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.

edmundintokyo said:

theakes said:

Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"

It's really *not* close in the marginal states, the tipping point on the current polling is PA which is currently at Biden +6. That's not the kind of lead that's impossible to overturn, but it's not close.

Indeed it is in California and Maryland amongst polled states that there has been a swing from 2016 towards Trump. Biden's vote appears more efficient in distribution than Clinton's, not less.

Foxy said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

Well that might annoy the gamer vote:

https://twitter.com/Slasher/status/1291557056256901126?s=09

Or it will be like bytedance and TikTok where they sell it before it loses value. Tencent owns ~30% of Epic Games, it's valued at around $5.5bn representing a gain of $4.7bn for Tencent, finding a buyer or buyers for it wil be very easy, Sony just invested $250m and have set aside $6bn for investing in purchase of new companies this year, Microsoft would also be ver interested given the overlap with Xbox. I'm sure Apple would love the chance to buy it's way into the gaming industry having failed to establish its presence organically so many times.

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.

Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.

The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.

NickPalmer said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.

I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".

Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1291650353218424832

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while

I still can't.
It's mildly irritating not to be able to post to a new thread until someone else does so first, but bearable.

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

However, I will be very surprised indeed.

I feel I should point out I've no idea how your trousers taste

I’m glad you issued that clarification...

Mexicanpete said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.

Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.

The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.

The China hawks are the main reason why Trump is still in the race. If he hadn't been forced into taking an even more anti China position earlier this year instead of praising Xi and China he'd be done for. The one defining feature of hawkishness is to think about what will happen under the next guy and how to tie their hands to your policy, whether that's by entering a bunch of wars or forcing the next guy to undo popular policies.

MaxPB said:

Mexicanpete said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.

Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.

The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.

The China hawks are the main reason why Trump is still in the race. If he hadn't been forced into taking an even more anti China position earlier this year instead of praising Xi and China he'd be done for. The one defining feature of hawkishness is to think about what will happen under the next guy and how to tie their hands to your policy, whether that's by entering a bunch of wars or forcing the next guy to undo popular policies.

I suspect you have thought this through to a significantly deeper intellectual level than Trump and his boys have.

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

However, I will be very surprised indeed.

We will know in a few days. I am mildly red on Harris and very very green on Rice, so I know who my trousers are rooting for.

Thats one way to select a candidate, I guess...

eek said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: Perez positive still for COVID-19. Hulkenberg may have another race after all.

Oh, that shows that a 7 day quarantine isn't enough. Question now is is 10 days enough?

No, that is not what this shows.
Quarantine is for individuals who don't know if they are infected, but are at risk of having been infected; Perez, being already diagnosed, was in isolation.

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

NickPalmer said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.

I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".

Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.

You literally have.

Pedantry compels me to say that I didn't hear Trump, I've only read about it.

BluestBlue said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

However, I will be very surprised indeed.

If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881

KamAHla?

CAmela?

KAHmala?

Khameleon!

Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

geoffw said:

BluestBlue said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

However, I will be very surprised indeed.

If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881

KamAHla?

CAmela?

KAHmala?

Khameleon!

Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

NickPalmer said:

kle4 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.

I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".

Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.

You literally have.

Pedantry compels me to say that I didn't hear Trump, I've only read about it.

I apologise for my pitiful attempt to out-pedant you.

It's a fight to the death round here..

rottenborough said:

geoffw said:

BluestBlue said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

However, I will be very surprised indeed.

If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881

KamAHla?

CAmela?

KAHmala?

Khameleon!

Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.

Finland is another word Trump can't say

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690