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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a hug

SystemSystem Posts: 11,018
edited August 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a huge surprise if it is not Kamala Harris or Susan Rice

The Democratic convention is due to start, in a virtual form because of the pandemic, on August 17th and the big development in the run up to the opening will be Joe Biden’s choice of running mate.

Read the full story here

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    Alasdair_Alasdair_ Posts: 15
    Susan Rice may have been promised Secretary of State.
  • Options
    Alasdair_Alasdair_ Posts: 15
    Oh, and first.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited August 2020
    So much speculation on this. That's why I think betting on this market is sub-optimal. It's not like a general election where there are opinion polls of the electorate, etc. Here, all you're doing s trying to see into one man's mind.

    We know he is sexist, because he is excluding all men, and he may be racist too, excluding whites from consideration, or at least heavily disadvantaging them, though he hasn't explicitly banned them afaik. But other than that, it's impossible to guess how he'd choose between Rice and Harris or someone else. It's not like he's ever made a VP pick before so there's no track record to go on.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,623
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while

    Ditto re my mobile. Thanks for sorting it out Robert.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,203
    Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1291620190065766400
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,879
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person

    What chance he would even last one term, he has trouble remembering who he is at present. VP pick is almost certain to end up in the hot seat.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    edited August 2020
    malcolmg said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person

    What chance he would even last one term, he has trouble remembering who he is at present. VP pick is almost certain to end up in the hot seat.
    If he wins.

    I think he will. Certainly I hope he will. But we’ve all underestimated Trump before, and Biden is scarcely the strongest candidate the Dems have ever put forward.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    Alasdair_ said:

    Susan Rice may have been promised Secretary of State.

    Or Chief of Staff since Biden and Rice have such an easy working relationship, or anything at all. And how binding is a Granita Pact anyway?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1291459601788010496
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

    It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Will Trump stick with Pence?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    It may not be great to go on these markets because your counter-party may be an insider with better information than you. However I wonder if the value isn't with "neither of the above". There seems to have been a report that it was down to these two from somebody who claimed to be familiar with Biden's thinking, but generally the closer someone is to knowing the less likely they are to leak, and even if it's well-sourced it could easily be disinformation.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1291494244943908865?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Lemirageabuja/status/1291494740643524608?s=20
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Jonathan said:

    Will Trump stick with Pence?

    Who would take Trump's shilling?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Will Trump stick with Pence?

    Who would take Trump's shilling?
    Tulsi Gabbard
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,109
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Whomever is picked becomes the hot favourite for the presidency in 2024. Biden - if he's serious about his statements about being a 1 term baton-passer - may have the DNC making 'suggestions' as to the preferred person

    What chance he would even last one term, he has trouble remembering who he is at present. VP pick is almost certain to end up in the hot seat.
    If he wins.

    I think he will. Certainly I hope he will. But we’ve all underestimated Trump before, and Biden is scarcely the strongest candidate the Dems have ever put forward.
    Just needs Biden to have one senior moment in the debates - and it all starts unravelling for the Dems.... And God forbid, four more years of Trump.

    America. Plutocracy delivering either gerontocracy or kleptocracy.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994
    Scott_xP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1291459601788010496
    He's not even trying with the facepaint any more. He looks like he just dipped his face into a bowl of Brown Windsor soup.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
    KamAHla?

    CAmela?

    KAHmala?

    Khameleon!

    :smile:
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    MarqueeMark said:


    Just needs Biden to have one senior moment in the debates - and it all starts unravelling for the Dems.... And God forbid, four more years of Trump.

    I wonder if it would, though. Opinion about Trump is pretty polarized and Trump himself isn't exactly a model of sober managerial competence. It's not like 2016 where there were a lot of undecided voters many of whom thought Trump would do an OK job because he was good at business.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,109
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1291459601788010496
    He's not even trying with the facepaint any more. He looks like he just dipped his face into a bowl of Brown Windsor soup.
    He looks like a former colleague on a lads night out, who passed out pissed, face-down into his balti....
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,265
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

    It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky
    LOL @ "only"
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    Dura_Ace said:

    He's not even trying with the facepaint any more. He looks like he just dipped his face into a bowl of Brown Windsor soup.

    https://twitter.com/daveRob0/status/1288743079097360384
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.

    https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1291459601788010496
    He's not even trying with the facepaint any more. He looks like he just dipped his face into a bowl of Brown Windsor soup.
    Au contraire, his face in that video does not show Trump's normal white circles around the eyes. Something has changed.

    And yes, Trump says Thighland but a few moments later pronounces Thailand correctly. Opponents used to make a great deal of GW Bush's slips and solecisms as evidence of mental decline and no good it did them.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

    It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky
    LOL @ "only"
    I would expect it to have been much more to be honest
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    edited August 2020
    edmundintokyo said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Will Trump stick with Pence?

    Who would take Trump's shilling?
    Tulsi Gabbard
    Nikki Haley.

    ETA: hold on. I've missed a joke! Gabbard is a Democrat.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited August 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

    It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky
    LOL @ "only"
    It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it! :lol:
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,332
    Harris seems the safe choice as an experienced candidate, with Rice as a senior official - Chief of Staff or Secretary of State. I think the search for value can lead one astray in political betting - sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.

    Incidentally, I think of Rice as quite hawkish - in Secretary of State we might see her confronting Russia or China or both quite aggressively, which may or may not be a good thing.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,386
    Finally managed to sign on for comments. Not sure what happened, there were a lot of threads I wanted to comment.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    edmundintokyo said:

    MarqueeMark said:


    Just needs Biden to have one senior moment in the debates - and it all starts unravelling for the Dems.... And God forbid, four more years of Trump.

    I wonder if it would, though. Opinion about Trump is pretty polarized and Trump himself isn't exactly a model of sober managerial competence. It's not like 2016 where there were a lot of undecided voters many of whom thought Trump would do an OK job because he was good at business.
    Yes, I am not convinced the debates will do Grandpa Joe any harm. Trump is at least as likely to say something stupid.

    Debates rarely make much difference, and are played very defensively. Biden survived the Primary debates well enough.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    Foxy said:

    Yes, I am not convinced the debates will do Grandpa Joe any harm. Trump is at least as likely to say something stupid.

    Debates rarely make much difference, and are played very defensively. Biden survived the Primary debates well enough.

    Biden survived the Democrat debates. Trump can't read his own speech.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Yes, I am not convinced the debates will do Grandpa Joe any harm. Trump is at least as likely to say something stupid.

    Debates rarely make much difference, and are played very defensively. Biden survived the Primary debates well enough.

    Biden survived the Democrat debates. Trump can't read his own speech.
    Yes, but being an obnoxious moron is priced in for Trump, and a plus for his large deplorable vote.

    I think being a bit vague and full of folksy waffle for Grandpa Joe too.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Foxy said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    MarqueeMark said:


    Just needs Biden to have one senior moment in the debates - and it all starts unravelling for the Dems.... And God forbid, four more years of Trump.

    I wonder if it would, though. Opinion about Trump is pretty polarized and Trump himself isn't exactly a model of sober managerial competence. It's not like 2016 where there were a lot of undecided voters many of whom thought Trump would do an OK job because he was good at business.
    Yes, I am not convinced the debates will do Grandpa Joe any harm. Trump is at least as likely to say something stupid.

    Debates rarely make much difference, and are played very defensively. Biden survived the Primary debates well enough.
    Yes, Trump was a total mess against Hillary (albeit he hit his talking points a lot without regard to the actual debate) and presidents are normally pretty poor on their first debate after being surrounded by yes-men for four years.

    It seems like quite a mad strategy to build up the idea that Biden can't speak in coherent sentences ahead of a debate where Biden's going to speak in coherent sentences and Trump isn't, but with Trump you can never quite tell how much of it's a confused old man lashing out at random and how much is cunningly astute low politics.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 842
    Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,930
    ‪Fun fact - five of the last seven published opinion polls have actually shown small moves to Labour.‬
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    Morning,

    Just testing I'm back in. Presumably we have had some kind of tech issue overnight?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,050
    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    theakes said:

    Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"

    It's really *not* close in the marginal states, the tipping point on the current polling is PA which is currently at Biden +6. That's not the kind of lead that's impossible to overturn, but it's not close.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1291494244943908865?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Lemirageabuja/status/1291494740643524608?s=20

    Interesting GOTV strategy. Tell voters Ohio is already in the bag for Trump?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    https://twitter.com/_ElizabethMay/status/1291643755188170752
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,930
    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,604
    Looks like the two candidates employ the same fashion consultant.

    One string of pearls versus two is a big differentiator.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    US Dem VP slot

    Betfair concurs with OGH this is a two-runner race (or a surprise!).

    Kamala Harris: 1.95
    Susan Rice: 3.65
    Val Demings: 21
    Tammy Duckworth: 24
    Elizabeth Warren: 27
    Gretchen Whitmer: 29
    Michelle Obama: 30
    Michelle Lujan Grisham: 46
    Karen Bass: 55
    Keisha Lance Bottoms: 70
    Stacey Abrams: 85
    Hillary Clinton: 140
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,367
    Alasdair_ said:

    Susan Rice may have been promised Secretary of State.

    That would make a a lot of sense.

    Given that she has no experience of elective politics, and that the VP pick is so likely to become a Presidential candidate....
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    Does Trump know how many greenbacks the Chinese have in their vaults?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,930
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    rottenborough said:

    Morning,

    Just testing I'm back in. Presumably we have had some kind of tech issue overnight?

    Almost the opposite: @rcs1000 fixed the login issues that afflicted some PBers, which logged everyone out as a side-effect.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,367
    SandyRentool said:

    Looks like the two candidates employ the same fashion consultant.

    One string of pearls versus two is a big differentiator.

    "Bring me the blandest {style} on the menu!"
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    Does Trump know how many greenbacks the Chinese have in their vaults?
    What of it? If they flood the market the Fed declares an emergency and buys it all up. Owning another nation's debt is not any real tactical advantage in the era of central bank activism.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,970
    edited August 2020
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morning,

    Just testing I'm back in. Presumably we have had some kind of tech issue overnight?

    Almost the opposite: @rcs1000 fixed the login issues that afflicted some PBers, which logged everyone out as a side-effect.
    I could bore people but yep, fixing the issue requires everyone to log back in.

    For those that care, your login is really just a cookie in your browser and the cookie has to be recreated as the connection between this site and vanilla now has different settings.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,332
    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
    I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    edited August 2020
    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    We will know in a few days. I am mildly red on Harris and very very green on Rice, so I know who my trousers are rooting for.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

    For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,980
    F1: Perez positive still for COVID-19. Hulkenberg may have another race after all.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    Well that might annoy the gamer vote:

    https://twitter.com/Slasher/status/1291557056256901126?s=09
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    rottenborough said:

    Morning,

    Just testing I'm back in. Presumably we have had some kind of tech issue overnight?

    Almost the opposite: @rcs1000 fixed the login issues that afflicted some PBers, which logged everyone out as a side-effect.
    Thanks.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Wonderfully withering response.
    https://twitter.com/losttourist/status/1291642037113102336
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?
    I would have stopped after the first five words.

    Thinking by use of the arse must be a biological miracle. I wonder if he would be of interest to your fellow scientists?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156
    BluestBlue said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

    It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky
    LOL @ "only"
    It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it! :lol:
    The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,413
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    I wonder how he thinks Thames is pronounced?
    That of course was pronounced the Trump way until George I couldn't pronounce it so everyone else had to follow suit.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    edmundintokyo said:

    theakes said:

    Trunp will sadly be re-elected. Biden is piling up huge votes in the safe Democrat areas California 67- 29, New York, Washington. North East etc, that gives him a large national lead but it is close in the marginal areas that would get Trump home again. I suspect Biden could win the national vote by 4-7% and still lose on the State by State count, it is a bizarre system for a country that prides itself on being the "greatest Democracy in the world"

    It's really *not* close in the marginal states, the tipping point on the current polling is PA which is currently at Biden +6. That's not the kind of lead that's impossible to overturn, but it's not close.
    Indeed it is in California and Maryland amongst polled states that there has been a swing from 2016 towards Trump. Biden's vote appears more efficient in distribution than Clinton's, not less.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,980
    Dr. Foxy, lots of gamers are aware of bullshit from China due to the high profile ban of an e-sports pro by Blizzard after he voiced pro-Hong Kong views during an interview.

    You're right, but just thought that context was worth adding.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    Well that might annoy the gamer vote:

    https://twitter.com/Slasher/status/1291557056256901126?s=09
    Or it will be like bytedance and TikTok where they sell it before it loses value. Tencent owns ~30% of Epic Games, it's valued at around $5.5bn representing a gain of $4.7bn for Tencent, finding a buyer or buyers for it wil be very easy, Sony just invested $250m and have set aside $6bn for investing in purchase of new companies this year, Microsoft would also be ver interested given the overlap with Xbox. I'm sure Apple would love the chance to buy it's way into the gaming industry having failed to establish its presence organically so many times.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

    For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.
    The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

    For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.
    The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,387
    Talking of American pronunciations.

    Why do Americans pronounce ‘Craig’ like it rhymes with ‘Greg’?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,050
    NickPalmer said:

    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
    I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".
    Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,970
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: Perez positive still for COVID-19. Hulkenberg may have another race after all.

    Oh, that shows that a 7 day quarantine isn't enough. Question now is is 10 days enough?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1291650353218424832
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    While I incline more to your view than Mike's (though I feel I should point out I've no idea how your trousers taste), I think the current odds are reasonable; Harris is by no means a certainty.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while

    I still can't.
    It's mildly irritating not to be able to post to a new thread until someone else does so first, but bearable.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    edited August 2020
    Mexicanpete said:

    BluestBlue said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1291575598385713157

    It is not surprising but the survey confirms only a 7% loss of trust according to Sky
    LOL @ "only"
    It's ridiculously tiny for the so-called 'Biggest Scandal Of The Century', not to mention the ten thousand retweets that accompanied it! :lol:
    The mere fact that it is still rolling three months on, suggests it might have been rather a big deal.
    It is for some but I expect HMG to see real popularity problems as job loses mount.

    With the spike in covid both here and abroad, largely due to social gatherings I expect that attendances at public events including football, pubs and music venues will be outlawed for at least six months and maybe longer

    I also expect serious problems over schools re-opening and WFH destroying city centres.

    Indeed as I have said, Boris is not the PM we need in this crisis and I am neutral on conservative v labour but it does seem to me a GNU will be needed at sometime in the near future with a new PM and Starmer as deputy
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    I feel I should point out I've no idea how your trousers taste
    I’m glad you issued that clarification...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,282
    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while

    I still can't.
    It's mildly irritating not to be able to post to a new thread until someone else does so first, but bearable.
    I have had to sign in again on all my devices and each one has worked
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Mexicanpete said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

    For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.
    The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.
    The China hawks are the main reason why Trump is still in the race. If he hadn't been forced into taking an even more anti China position earlier this year instead of praising Xi and China he'd be done for. The one defining feature of hawkishness is to think about what will happen under the next guy and how to tie their hands to your policy, whether that's by entering a bunch of wars or forcing the next guy to undo popular policies.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    Malmesbury said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Looks like the two candidates employ the same fashion consultant.

    One string of pearls versus two is a big differentiator.

    "Bring me the blandest {style} on the menu!"
    Ambitious lady politicians should pay heed. Most female leaders around the world have similar styles, with shortish hair (probably a precaution against helicopters and outdoor rallies) and suits, just as men do. Maybe the LibDems should have heeded David Cameron's mum's advice to Jeremy Corbyn, and bought Jo Swinson a jacket so she looked more like a senior politician and less like a primary school teacher.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,156
    MaxPB said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

    For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.
    The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.
    The China hawks are the main reason why Trump is still in the race. If he hadn't been forced into taking an even more anti China position earlier this year instead of praising Xi and China he'd be done for. The one defining feature of hawkishness is to think about what will happen under the next guy and how to tie their hands to your policy, whether that's by entering a bunch of wars or forcing the next guy to undo popular policies.
    I suspect you have thought this through to a significantly deeper intellectual level than Trump and his boys have.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,349
    MaxPB said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    In quite a lot more serious news, Trump has put a ban order on Tencent as well as WeChat and TikTok. The latter two I sort of understand but Tencent is a wildcard, this definitely feels like a prelude to America declaring no more Chinese money or investment in the US.

    And demanding others do the same. Mike Pompeo outlined it in a speech earlier this week.

    I think it's a recognition that China has been waging a cold war on the west so it's time for the west to actually fight it rather than lay down and let China roll its tanks into western economies.
    Trump can’t lead the West and has no interest in doing so, in any case. This is all about his re-election campaign.

    For Trump, yes, but it's also about China hawks in the US laying the groundwork for it a d doing things it would be difficult for Biden to overturn without looking soft on China in the run up to 2024. The Trump team are defining Biden's China policy with these moves as well.
    The Trump hawks are far more sophisticated in your world than they are in mine. I am not sure they can think that far ahead. All the genuinely smart guys have been fired.
    The China hawks are the main reason why Trump is still in the race. If he hadn't been forced into taking an even more anti China position earlier this year instead of praising Xi and China he'd be done for. The one defining feature of hawkishness is to think about what will happen under the next guy and how to tie their hands to your policy, whether that's by entering a bunch of wars or forcing the next guy to undo popular policies.
    Trump himself has been railing against China for decades. To the extent Trump has his own foreign policy, it is that Russia is not the enemy, China is.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    rottenborough said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    We will know in a few days. I am mildly red on Harris and very very green on Rice, so I know who my trousers are rooting for.
    Thats one way to select a candidate, I guess...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    Theuniondivvie said:

    NickPalmer said:

    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
    I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".
    Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.
    You literally have.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    eek said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: Perez positive still for COVID-19. Hulkenberg may have another race after all.

    Oh, that shows that a 7 day quarantine isn't enough. Question now is is 10 days enough?
    No, that is not what this shows.
    Quarantine is for individuals who don't know if they are infected, but are at risk of having been infected; Perez, being already diagnosed, was in isolation.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Nigelb said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Very pleased I have been able to sign in on the main site for the first time in a while

    I still can't.
    It's mildly irritating not to be able to post to a new thread until someone else does so first, but bearable.
    I have had to sign in again on all my devices and each one has worked
    I cleared all my cookies, and rebooted devices; it made no difference. I can sign in on Vanilla but not on the site itself.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,050
    Nigelb said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    NickPalmer said:

    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
    I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".
    Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.
    You literally have.
    Pedantry compels me to say that I didn't hear Trump, I've only read about it.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    NickPalmer said:

    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
    I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".
    Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.
    You literally have.
    Pedantry compels me to say that I didn't hear Trump, I've only read about it.
    I apologise for my pitiful attempt to out-pedant you.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    BluestBlue said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
    KamAHla?

    CAmela?

    KAHmala?

    Khameleon!

    :smile:
    Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Malmesbury said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Looks like the two candidates employ the same fashion consultant.

    One string of pearls versus two is a big differentiator.

    "Bring me the blandest {style} on the menu!"
    Ambitious lady politicians should pay heed. Most female leaders around the world have similar styles, with shortish hair (probably a precaution against helicopters and outdoor rallies) and suits, just as men do. Maybe the LibDems should have heeded David Cameron's mum's advice to Jeremy Corbyn, and bought Jo Swinson a jacket so she looked more like a senior politician and less like a primary school teacher.
    This small incident from earlier in the campaign illustrates that perfectly:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430359-kamala-harris-shopping-trip-stirs-twitter-controversy
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    geoffw said:

    BluestBlue said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
    KamAHla?

    CAmela?

    KAHmala?

    Khameleon!

    :smile:
    Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

    In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,552
    Regarding last night's panic...

    Donald Trump is losing the culture wars
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/06/trump-is-losing-the-culture-wars-392407
    The Democratic attempt to crush the NRA is unlikely to do much for his reelection. "Every person who cares about the NRA is already voting for Trump," said a GOP pollster.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,050
    Nigelb said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    NickPalmer said:

    kle4 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Get ye a fanboi like Dinesh if you want your every moronic blooper defended to the hilt.

    https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1291564123545907200?s=20

    Well he was pardoned by Trump IIRC, I'd be grateful.
    I've heard both uses frequently. It's a mistake to jump on Trump for every minor slip, because it devalues the important criticisms. "He causes thousands of deaths by incompetence and actual bad advice, and, what's more, he possibly mispronounces Thailand".
    Obviously I'll take your word for it, but I literally have never heard someone pronounce it Thighland.
    You literally have.
    Pedantry compels me to say that I didn't hear Trump, I've only read about it.
    I apologise for my pitiful attempt to out-pedant you.
    It's a fight to the death round here..
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
    rottenborough said:

    geoffw said:

    BluestBlue said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
    KamAHla?

    CAmela?

    KAHmala?

    Khameleon!

    :smile:
    Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

    In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.
    Ha!

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,900
    rottenborough said:

    geoffw said:

    BluestBlue said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    ydoethur said:

    I will not say I will eat my trousers if Kamala Harris isn’t the choice, because they’re not very tasty and somewhat indigestible.

    However, I will be very surprised indeed.

    If it is Kamala Harris then I shall have to relearn how to pronounce her name, with emphasis on the first rather than second syllable.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/735197253153914881
    KamAHla?

    CAmela?

    KAHmala?

    Khameleon!

    :smile:
    Well she shouldn't visit Finland where her name, correctly spelled and pronounced means awful, terrible, dire, atrocious etc

    In Veep (the TV series) a whole episode involves the veep visiting Finland.
    Finland is another word Trump can't say

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1290787291695218690
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    F1 - Tracing Point lose the brake duct case, FIA rule it is illegal and are fined $200k per car and lose 15 championship points, must change to the 2019 design which isn't the stolen Mercedes one. Will mean tyre temps will be all over the place for them. I also expect Renault will go after the undertray as well now given this success.
This discussion has been closed.