politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely
Comments
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It's weird listening to people arguing about the BBC's version of reality when the BBC version of reality has no connection to the truth.
Anyway, how that relates to any future Ukip policy platform
1) Don't do lady bountiful, people hate that
2) Don't deliberately poke people in the eye for fun like the Tories do
3) Accept or find out for themselves that the BBC version of reality has no connection to the truth
e.g. how many houses like this there are in the country
http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353
(answer tens of thousands)
One of the political class' big lies of the last 14 years is immigrants doing jobs British people wouldn't do. What actually happened was loads of unskilled work was transferred to people living 12+ to a house working for tuppence an hour.
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I agree. Labour's big challenge seems to be that opposition in its heartland might coalesce around one party instead of being fragmented. That will be a big challenge, but also one that might lead to much less complacency. If the mindset does not change, Labour will deserve what it gets.Sean_F said:
If the non-Labour vote starts uniting behind a single candidate, in seats that Labour considers safe, that could be a problem for Labour. Not in seats where they have 60% + of the vote, but in seats that vote say, 48% Labour, 25% Conservative, 20% Lib Dem, 7% Others.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour can absorb big swings to UKIP in its heartlands and still keep the vast majority of its MPs, that's pretty efficient isn't it? I guess we'll need to see what happens in a GE before we can make a definitive call on that. I'd say the bigger concern is that Labour has failed almost entirely to engage with the non-Labour inclined section of the voting public.another_richard said:One thing that should concern Labour is their increasingly inefficient vote distribution.
Piling up massive majorities in London and urban areas generally brings few extra MPs for a lot of extra votes.
The Tories found themselves in the same bind in the 1990s, when everyone who wasn't a Conservative in similar Tory seats started to pile in behind the Lib Dems.
It is however, very good for democracy that parties should be face real challenges in seats they consider safe.
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It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.isam said:Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line
Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator
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You are making a mountain out of a mole hill over my use of the term "them". If I had said "housing subsidies are a mistake of a policy, but of course Londoners like the policies because it helps them", that does not mean I am seeing things in terms of "them and us".SouthamObserver said:@Socrates - I don't think Labour did promise preferential treatment for Labour-leaning blocs. But whatever Sadiq Khan says or does that does not mean you are forced into seeing things in terms of them and us. You make that choice. For example, you can oppose quotas because they are unfair, not because they favour "them".
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/give-black-and-asian-people-a-better-deal-says-sadiq-khan-9375890.html0 -
Most of London is dirt poor and getting poorer. That's Labour's strategy for permanent one party rule.surbiton said:
London - the greatest city in the world !Millsy said:With 2 councils left to declare on the BBC website, about 60% of Labour's seat gains have been in London
One road in the ward i used to help out in years ago has c. 100 houses and used to be 80 families and 20 double flats or c. 120 doorbells. Last time i went to visit it was 300+ as the houses get turned into smaller and smaller flats and the gardens so full of rubbish if you go early evening you'll see 1-3 rats.
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Greetings from the People's Republic of Redbridge
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I meant in terms of big votes for parties like Sinn Fein, Greens, People before Profit etc.Pulpstar said:
Are Gael or Fail more left/right ?Sean_F said:
The Irish electorate has moved left with a vengeance.MikeK said:General Election @UKELECTIONS2015 20m
Dublin exit poll
Sinn Fein 24
Fine Gael 14
Green 14
Fianna Fail 12
Childners 11
Labour 8
Socialist 7
People Before Profit 6
Still to the right of Britain on abortion - and corporation tax !
North of the Border, it seems pretty much normal service. DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, all look like falling back slightly from 2011, the UUP are recovering some lost ground. UKIP are polling well here and there, and will finish up with a few council seats. Overall, it looks like Unionist parties will win about 48% of the vote (if one includes UKIP as Unionists) and Nationalist parties will win about 38% of the vote. Basil Mcrea's joke outfit has crashed and burned.
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Fianna Fail are part of the Liberal Group in Europe, making them rough equivalents of the LDs on that basis.Sean_F said:
I meant in terms of big votes for parties like Sinn Fein, Greens, People before Profit etc.Pulpstar said:
Are Gael or Fail more left/right ?Sean_F said:
The Irish electorate has moved left with a vengeance.MikeK said:General Election @UKELECTIONS2015 20m
Dublin exit poll
Sinn Fein 24
Fine Gael 14
Green 14
Fianna Fail 12
Childners 11
Labour 8
Socialist 7
People Before Profit 6
Still to the right of Britain on abortion - and corporation tax !
North of the Border, it seems pretty much normal service. DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, all look like falling back slightly from 2011, the UUP are recovering some lost ground. UKIP are polling well here and there, and will finish up with a few council seats. Overall, it looks like Unionist parties will win about 48% of the vote (if one includes UKIP as Unionists) and Nationalist parties will win about 38% of the vote. Basil Mcrea's joke outfit has crashed and burned.
FG are part of the EPP, making them Conservative-ish.
If the Nationalist vote is 38% it's a tad lower than of late, recent elections have been around 40-42%.0 -
UKIP had a couple of decent third places in Redbridge wards, and came close to coming second in Hainault.Sean_F said:
WRT Barking & Dagenham, the UKIP candidates took 28% on average (they put up one candidate in each ward), but that wasn't enough to win a single seat (they came close, but close wins no prizes).
It's possible that for the Euros, that UKIP might have topped the poll in Barking & Dagenham.0 -
The count for some Tower Hamlets wards have been moved to tomorrow....
So far there's no a big indication of white Labour candidates doing much worse than Asian Labourites.
In Bow West
Joshua Peck Labour 2439
Asma Begum Labour 1996
In Lansbury
Dave Smith (1850) got indeed less than Rajib Ahmed (2184) and Shiria Khatun (1952)
but in Mile End
David Edgar (2268) and Raechel Saunders (2139) outpolled Motin Uz-Zaman (1801)
In Whitechapel Robert Robinson is in between Faruque Mahfuz Ahmed and Jamalur Rahman
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One note for the Euros - My ward - a very solid Labour one had barely any voters turn out.
There were no locals here.0 -
Agreed.SouthamObserver said:
I agree. Labour's big challenge seems to be that opposition in its heartland might coalesce around one party instead of being fragmented. That will be a big challenge, but also one that might lead to much less complacency. If the mindset does not change, Labour will deserve what it gets.Sean_F said:
If the non-Labour vote starts uniting behind a single candidate, in seats that Labour considers safe, that could be a problem for Labour. Not in seats where they have 60% + of the vote, but in seats that vote say, 48% Labour, 25% Conservative, 20% Lib Dem, 7% Others.SouthamObserver said:
If Labour can absorb big swings to UKIP in its heartlands and still keep the vast majority of its MPs, that's pretty efficient isn't it? I guess we'll need to see what happens in a GE before we can make a definitive call on that. I'd say the bigger concern is that Labour has failed almost entirely to engage with the non-Labour inclined section of the voting public.another_richard said:One thing that should concern Labour is their increasingly inefficient vote distribution.
Piling up massive majorities in London and urban areas generally brings few extra MPs for a lot of extra votes.
The Tories found themselves in the same bind in the 1990s, when everyone who wasn't a Conservative in similar Tory seats started to pile in behind the Lib Dems.
It is however, very good for democracy that parties should be face real challenges in seats they consider safe.
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Anyone looking at the locals as a pointer to a bet at the GE must surely use vote % rather than council seats as the measure IMO
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Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.
A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.0 -
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Yes. You can assume those not turning out are not particularly tempted by the Kip protest, certainly not 17% of the doubled turnout. You can add 3 each to Labour and Tory, subtract about 4 or 5 from UKIP, a few from the Greens and add two or three to the Lib Dems to get a baseLine from which to set over/under expectations before you start to factor in Kipper returners/Kipper movement and mojo, government swing back. Tacticals and the like.isam said:Anyone looking at the locals as a pointer to a bet at the GE must surely use vote % rather than council seats as the measure IMO
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"Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.dyedwoolie said:Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.
A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card."
And in all cases the dividing line is London.
Labour did better than expected in London. Worse than expected outside
Con did better than expected outside London. Worse than expected inside
showing quite clearly where the problem is with the models
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Kent is always considered a Tory Heartland ... so to amuse myself I took a look at the local elections for Maidstone. This covers 18 wards and has 20 local seats up for election (2 wards have 2 seats up for election). Bear in mind this election has wards touching Tunbridge Wells - such as Yalding and Marden you would expect a Tory whitewash. The result was not as you would expect. (NB. I ignored a couple of very peripheral candidates in my calculations)
Conservative - 11,673 (28.7%)
UKIP - 10,928 (26.8%)
Lib Dem - 9,930 (24.4%)
Lab - 4,130 (10.1%)
Green - 2,103 (5.2%)
Ind - 1,943 (4.8%).
It seem to me Kent is now a 3 horse race. With the Lib Dems surprisingly back in the running. Bear in mind that the Lib Dems put up no candidates in 2 wards. One of the wards (Harrietshaw and Lenham was a 2 seat ward and 979 votes went to an independent). Just proves the point - when you have 4 party politics things can change quite a bit!0 -
I'm sure I remember someone telling me that the count was starting at 5pm locally, so it may be that they're doing face-down verification of numbers at that time, in order to be able to begin the count proper at 9pm.MikeK said:
The latter, I believe. It will be a long night, though there will be the exit polls to consider.anotherDave said:
Do you know if we're going to get the result at 9pm on Sunday, or is that just when they start counting?MikeK said:
Actually I have prepared the following repast for listening and looking at the results:anotherDave said:
A large teapot, and three dozen packets of macvites digestives should see you thru. :-)MikeK said:It's the waiting thats taking it's toll.
1 bottle of Crusted Port
1 small barrel of Fortnam & Mason stilton.
1 large packet cream crackers
1 slab of Normandie butter.
The above and some tea naturally, from time to time, should do the trick.0 -
Bbc aren't broadcasting the F1qualy on the radio
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The capital fails to see the heartache and pain beyond
'London’ has become shorthand for faraway people with no grasp of the nation’s problems
"Yesterday I heard a BBC reporter, in a comical but telling slip of the tongue, describing London as “ethically diverse”. This is true. A strange coalition, first forged by Ken Livingstone, somehow knits together gay-rights activists with Islamist fanatics who want homosexuals thrown off cliffs, the more right-on sort of cosmopolitan entrepreneur with the most bloody-minded public-sector trade unionist. As long ago as 2010, Labour’s national membership was revealed to be more than a fifth drawn from London (though London is only 12.5 per cent of the national population), with five times as many members in Hampstead as in Hartlepool. This trend has strengthened, and Ukip’s incursions into Labour’s northern territory on Thursday are a reaction against it. Ed Miliband sits for a seat in Doncaster (where Labour just lost two council seats), but his heart, and his house, are in Primrose Hill."
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections/10852204/Local-elections-The-capital-fails-to-see-the-heartache-and-pain-beyond.html0 -
Which almost certainly was a factor last year in boosting the reported UKIP national equivalent vote.MrJones said:
"Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.dyedwoolie said:Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.
A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card."
And in all cases the dividing line is London.
Labour did better than expected in London. Worse than expected outside
Con did better than expected outside London. Worse than expected inside
showing quite clearly where the problem is with the models0 -
Dyed Woolie election prediction update
Based on the locals, and recent polling, I anticipate an HoC split as follows
Conservative 305
Labour 280
Lib Dem 25
UKIP 2 (Great Yarmouth and either Thanet South or Castle Point if they can Hoover up the Spinks vote)
Green 2 (Brighton and Norwich South)
Nats and NI 36 (SNP to gain 8)
David Cameron is PM with Lib Dem/SNP supply and confidence for a one year programme for Indy to be completed (or Devo Max implemented) before a return to the polls0 -
Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
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Betfair In-Play Euros: UKIP Most Votes 1.260
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Indeed.malcolmg said:
That will be the treasury that has run up £1.5 Trillion in debt and still rising at over £2 Billion per week. Sound advice we will get from them then.CarlottaVance said:
Senior Treasury officials have said that Alex Salmond's promise to offer free nursery places to every child under five after Scottish independence "simply doesn't add up".Scott_P said:
Now, now, Stuart.Stuart_Dickson said:
Too wee. Too poor. Too stupid.
The SNP only claim Scotland is too wee and too poor to have it's own currency with too small a tax base to fund their wild schemes.
In a withering attack on one of the first minister's flagship policies for September's referendum, the Treasury said Salmond's Swedish-style proposals were based on hiring about 21,000 unemployed women who did not exist.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/alex-salmond-free-nursery-promise-treasury-scottish-independence
I expect they are locked in a room somewhere along with Salmond's EU Legal opinion.....
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Waveney is a long shot, but if they can get the mojo going in Gt Yarmouth, Waveney is next door.....Monksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?0 -
Here's some more scrutiny from the Times...
"The Conservative Party member is mocked for being a posh boy, the Liberal Democrats for incoherence, the Labour Party member for being silent (?) and the Green Party supporter for general apathy."
UKIP's is mocked for being a KKK member...
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/24/times-video-depicts-ukip-as-kkk-member#.U4CPIpc2GlM.twitter0 -
Smarmeron - Yes, but they said they were going to be doing F1 only on Radio 5 Sports Extra - they're not - they lied.0
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Easterross , there would need to be some clear out before I would consider going near them. A very very big job ahead for Tories after YES vote.malcolmg said:
Good morning all. I was going to point out that Stuart is a Tory but just cant bring himself to be a British one so is of the SNP variety. As he says there is a substantial minority within the SNP who are naturally centre-right in their political philosophy and if Scotland votes YES in September I would hope they would return to the (new) fold.Easterross said:
This interests me.MattW said:
And the Scottish Conservatives are still in denial and shock 17 years after the 1997 wipeout.Stuart_Dickson said:"Where would such a result leave the Westminster parties? Somewhere between a state of denial and shock, probably. There are always reasons to rationalise away exceptional results as an aberration"
The Scottish Tories have achieved more than 15% (and less than 20%) of the popular vote in every national Scottish election in the last 20 years as far as I can tell, both to Westminster and Holyrood.
What is the nature of this "denial"?
If we end up with a separated Scotland, I'd say that may well lead to a Scottish Conservative recovery. Clearly there is a strong core support at that level.
I cannot see the Scottish Tory party being successfully salvaged. They are a totally hopeless case. I think that a new centre-right grouping will have to be built post YES, with a core competent group of former SNP and LD types and the odd competent Tory that can be found among the wreckage of that once mighty party.
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Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
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So, a big boy told Ted Heath to do it and then ran away.CarlottaVance said:
Based on the Labour Government's Wheatley Report of 1969?Stuart_Dickson said:Is Ted Heath's vandalisation of the county system in the 1970s not a huge part of the explanation?
What a spineless bunch you Tories are.0 -
Smarmeron - Yes, that's what I thought.0
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Mid-Sussex did a face down verification yesterday (took about 3 hours with 72 people actually doing the counting) and the count proper which was due to start at 18:00 tomorrow has been put back to 18:30. I am told that the change of time was to fit in with the rest of the region. The count itself I'd guess will take 3/4 hours maybe more (15 parties on the paper), then the results will have to be coordinated for the region and the result calculated. My guess would be the results should start to come out at about midnight.david_herdson said:
I'm sure I remember someone telling me that the count was starting at 5pm locally, so it may be that they're doing face-down verification of numbers at that time, in order to be able to begin the count proper at 9pm.MikeK said:
The latter, I believe. It will be a long night, though there will be the exit polls to consider.anotherDave said:
Do you know if we're going to get the result at 9pm on Sunday, or is that just when they start counting?MikeK said:
Actually I have prepared the following repast for listening and looking at the results:anotherDave said:
A large teapot, and three dozen packets of macvites digestives should see you thru. :-)MikeK said:It's the waiting thats taking it's toll.
1 bottle of Crusted Port
1 small barrel of Fortnam & Mason stilton.
1 large packet cream crackers
1 slab of Normandie butter.
The above and some tea naturally, from time to time, should do the trick.0 -
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
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Cue: endles hours of PB threads about how CON will win thousands of marginals against nasty Shadsy's odds and nasty Ashcroft's flawed polls. Can't wait.BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
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Ashcroft is an absolute bugger for the Tories.
Would see Lab home and hosed.
Let the debate commence.0 -
Bookies are getting their computer systems glued up this morning.Their computers just say "waiting" longer than I could wait.I suspect most in the queue were,like me, chucking in £2 to be innit to winnit.Laddies told me Corals were having the same problem-the systems not coping with demand for the likely £10 million + pot for the Scoop 6 today.-1
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yeah, unless i'm missing something it seems obvious it must havedavid_herdson said:
Which almost certainly was a factor last year in boosting the reported UKIP national equivalent vote.MrJones said:
"Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.dyedwoolie said:Everyone did well, and everyone did badly.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card.
A question. How many gains can Labour reasonably expect in the only area in which they appear to be performing strongly, London? The seven the Tories gained in 2010? munchkin Greening is surely safe in Putney, the 05s ought to be out of reach.
UKIP joins the spin party. They hate the club so much they've applied for a gold membership card."
And in all cases the dividing line is London.
Labour did better than expected in London. Worse than expected outside
Con did better than expected outside London. Worse than expected inside
showing quite clearly where the problem is with the models0 -
That's the usual SNP defence......or was Police Scotland your very own idea?Stuart_Dickson said:
So, a big boy told Ted Heath to do it and then ran away.CarlottaVance said:
Based on the Labour Government's Wheatley Report of 1969?Stuart_Dickson said:Is Ted Heath's vandalisation of the county system in the 1970s not a huge part of the explanation?
What a spineless bunch you Tories are.
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And here's me thinking you were absolutely fascinated by Tory and Labour performance vs R&T!BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
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Looks as though "fracking" in the South may not be the bonanza SeanT hoped for. On the other hand, it makes it less of a problem for Cameron, he can tell the north to go frack itself.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/23/no-shale-gas-potential-weald-british-geological-survey-oil0 -
Afternoon all.
Did everyone survive the earthquake?0 -
Afternoon Avery, Yes - we've still got the aftershocks though don't we??0
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It's certainly a more legitimate argument than claiming their racist because the guy running for the school board in Bexhill-on-Sea made a joke about Bulgarians.SouthamObserver said:
It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.isam said:Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line
Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator0 -
And yet, you want to leave control of currency and fiscal policy in London........some "independence"!Stuart_Dickson said:
Indeed.malcolmg said:
That will be the treasury that has run up £1.5 Trillion in debt and still rising at over £2 Billion per week. Sound advice we will get from them then.CarlottaVance said:
Senior Treasury officials have said that Alex Salmond's promise to offer free nursery places to every child under five after Scottish independence "simply doesn't add up".Scott_P said:
Now, now, Stuart.Stuart_Dickson said:
Too wee. Too poor. Too stupid.
The SNP only claim Scotland is too wee and too poor to have it's own currency with too small a tax base to fund their wild schemes.
In a withering attack on one of the first minister's flagship policies for September's referendum, the Treasury said Salmond's Swedish-style proposals were based on hiring about 21,000 unemployed women who did not exist.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/24/alex-salmond-free-nursery-promise-treasury-scottish-independence
I expect they are locked in a room somewhere along with Salmond's EU Legal opinion.....
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Sadly these days it's more a wall of silence. Most Tories will now no doubt stage a disappearing act, only to re-emerge when they get a goodish poll.Stuart_Dickson said:
Cue: endles hours of PB threads about how CON will win thousands of marginals against nasty Shadsy's odds and nasty Ashcroft's flawed polls. Can't wait.BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
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You sound like a couple of fish wivesBobaFett said:
Sadly these days it's more a wall of silence. Most Tories will now no doubt stage a disappearing act, only to re-emerge when they get a goodish poll.Stuart_Dickson said:
Cue: endles hours of PB threads about how CON will win thousands of marginals against nasty Shadsy's odds and nasty Ashcroft's flawed polls. Can't wait.BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
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Whose racist?Socrates said:
It's certainly a more legitimate argument than claiming their racist because the guy running for the school board in Bexhill-on-Sea made a joke about Bulgarians.SouthamObserver said:
It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.isam said:Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line
Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator
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If it's a definite Con to Lab swing that's one thing. If it's Ukip taking votes from both but with a net effect of a Con to Lab swing then the Con voters have an easy choice - switch to Ukip.
"Switch and win" could be the slogan.0 -
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.0 -
Barking:isam said:
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.0 -
Rosberg Pole, Hamilton 2nd0
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Ricciardo 3rd, Vettel 4th0
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You mean they commenced fracking under your house, Comrade Chancellor?AveryLP said:Afternoon all.
Did everyone survive the earthquake?0 -
I'm just on the cups of tea at this stage Avery 0
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Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GEsurbiton said:
Barking:isam said:
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.0 -
Good luck to Derby this afternoon in their quest for the Promised Land.0
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Whatever get sl you through the night.felix said:
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.0 -
Scumbag manoeuver from Rosberg there. Hamilton was on course to take pole there.0
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Perhaps he didn't notice that a 'privatised' hospital just won the Best Hospital award.isam said:Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line
Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator
Perhaps Corporal Jones is panicking because he is scared that it works?
;-)0 -
As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
You can set your watch by this forum.0 -
Lib Dem winning here to Labour supporters. Has the order been sent to the printers yet ?TiredandConfused said:Kent is always considered a Tory Heartland ... so to amuse myself I took a look at the local elections for Maidstone. This covers 18 wards and has 20 local seats up for election (2 wards have 2 seats up for election). Bear in mind this election has wards touching Tunbridge Wells - such as Yalding and Marden you would expect a Tory whitewash. The result was not as you would expect. (NB. I ignored a couple of very peripheral candidates in my calculations)
Conservative - 11,673 (28.7%)
UKIP - 10,928 (26.8%)
Lib Dem - 9,930 (24.4%)
Lab - 4,130 (10.1%)
Green - 2,103 (5.2%)
Ind - 1,943 (4.8%).
It seem to me Kent is now a 3 horse race. With the Lib Dems surprisingly back in the running. Bear in mind that the Lib Dems put up no candidates in 2 wards. One of the wards (Harrietshaw and Lenham was a 2 seat ward and 979 votes went to an independent). Just proves the point - when you have 4 party politics things can change quite a bit!0 -
And four years ago when UKIP did believe in flat tax and NHs privatisation I supported that.SouthamObserver said:
It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.isam said:Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line
Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator
The problem for Owen Jones, and Bill Netwon-Dunn's son (and me) is that UKIP have now moved away from those policies.
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For balance, good luck to QPR too!peter_from_putney said:Good luck to Derby this afternoon in their quest for the Promised Land.
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Heh. Straw man. Only in the G.Smarmeron said:Looks as though "fracking" in the South may not be the bonanza SeanT hoped for. On the other hand, it makes it less of a problem for Cameron, he can tell the north to go frack itself.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/23/no-shale-gas-potential-weald-british-geological-survey-oil
No one has suggested fracking for gas in the Weald Basin.
There isn't any gold in Primrose Hill, either, so that won't be turning into a quarry.
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Broxtowe data from the Ashcroft poll.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Broxtowe.pdf
Wow.0 -
That is definitely an improvement. Usually, two UKIPers have 3 policies.SouthamObserver said:
It's fair game. Senior UKIP people are on the record as favouring both.isam said:Owen Jones and Tom Newton-Dunn on Sky toeing the OGH line
Jones banging on about flat taxes and privatising the NHS in his smarmy student way... I dislike him more than almost any other political commentator
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****!
My boss put together a £100k syndicate for the Scoop 6 - out first race.
*metaphorically tears up 50,000 betting slips*0 -
BobaFett said:
As forecast - everyone disappears when a poll of 26,000 shows something they don't want to see.
You can set your watch by this forum.
Of course, a bit like the umpteen dozen references here to how Labour not taking control of Swindon was an "unmitigated disaster", "if they can't win here then they've no chance" etc etc, and yet not one mention of the fact that Labout actually won the popular vote in Swindon. This too from the same people who spent all night and day and night afterwards telling us how terrible it was for Labour that UKIP had won the popular vote in Rotherham.
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Looks like I'd better get that donation to Anna Soubry in the post sharpish.NickPalmer said:Broxtowe data from the Ashcroft poll.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Broxtowe.pdf
Wow.
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Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.isam said:
Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GEsurbiton said:
Barking:isam said:
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.0 -
Even with UKIP returnees, it looks good. Fingers crossed.NickPalmer said:Broxtowe data from the Ashcroft poll.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Broxtowe.pdf
Wow.0 -
Comrade Sunilsky.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You mean they commenced fracking under your house, Comrade Chancellor?AveryLP said:Afternoon all.
Did everyone survive the earthquake?
I am a party man. I live in a Fabergé snuff box sized bedsit on the second floor of a converted Victorian terraced house in New Cross.
Only the most polite would describe what went on last night on the first floor as "fracking".
I'm taking advantage of the my current six month shorthold tenancy to move up the Old Kent Road to Elephant and Castle.
Just imagine having to suffer New Cross for three whole years under Miliband.
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Rubbish! balance be damned.Sunil_Prasannan said:
For balance, good luck to QPR too!peter_from_putney said:Good luck to Derby this afternoon in their quest for the Promised Land.
C'mon the Midlands!0 -
Indeed. That was a new low in the media's innumeracy yesterday. Lab would have carried the parliamentary seat on those numbers.HortenceWithering said:
Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.isam said:
Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GEsurbiton said:
Barking:isam said:
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.0 -
I should have a thread on Ashcroft up in the next 30-45 mins.
There's a lot to wade through at the moment, so please bear with me.0 -
Probably.HortenceWithering said:
Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.isam said:
Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GEsurbiton said:
Barking:isam said:
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
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HW,
"This too from the same people who spent all night and day and night afterwards telling us how terrible it was for Labour that UKIP had won the popular vote in Rotherham."
Be fair, Hortense, Ukip didn't have the massive advantage of having Rotherham Council childrens' services acting as a recruiting sergeant in Swindon.
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LD vote sharply down on 2010 with Lab vote up a similar amount. UKIP vote sharply up on 2010 with Con vote down by a similar amount. Obviously churn means it is a bit more complicated than that, but pretty much as textbook a Lab gain as we'll see if that poll is right and things don't change that much in 12 months.NickPalmer said:Broxtowe data from the Ashcroft poll.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Broxtowe.pdf
Wow.0 -
If you linked it, and mentioned the main findings, you might find people talked about it more.BobaFett said:0 -
Why analyse 7m real votes when there's a poll out, eh0
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But would Labour have known if it had won?BobaFett said:
Indeed. That was a new low in the media's innumeracy yesterday. Lab would have carried the parliamentary seat on those numbers.HortenceWithering said:
Plenty of fools here then when it came to talking about Swindon.isam said:
Only a fool looks at council seats won rather than vote percentage across the constituency when it comes to betting on the seat at a GEsurbiton said:
Barking:isam said:
These are my UKIP best chances.. seem to have done OK in the main at the localsMonksfield said:Isam has been banging on about Thurrock for ages and that's also looking a real one to watch. For a total outside bet, what about Waveney?
Meanwhile, how the hell are they counting the votes in Tower Hamlets. By abacus?
Barking
Boston & Skegness
Bromsgrove
Dag & Rain
Dudley North
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Plymouth Moor View
S Bas & E Thurrock
Staffordshire Moorlands
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Thanet North
Thanet South
Thurrock
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton
Lab 51, UKIP 0: out of 51.
The council elections are more difficult than the Euros: you have to know the both the name of the candidate and the party.
Difficult even for Party leaders.
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Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it.BobaFett said:
Whatever get sl you through the night.felix said:
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London.
Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!
BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.0 -
In fairness, we can presume that the favourability of the areas were factored into the forecast.john_zims said:@Bobafett
'Yet again I ask the question. How did the Tories do against the Railings forecast?'
-231 versus Railings forecast of -220
Labour +338 versus Railings forecast of + 490 in electoral areas that are much more favorable to Labour.0 -
Gt Yarmouth looks interesting from Ashcroft: Con 32, Lab 31, UKIP 29!0
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I had a Mongolian flatmate in Leeds in the early 80s, owner of a personal karaoke machine. Fool if you think its over was one of his favourites. Also a big fan (as were all the Mongolian students) of Monopoly, which was, apparently banned in Mongolia at the timefelix said:
Labour 4 seats short a year before the election with Ed in charge - I think I could just about live with it.BobaFett said:
Whatever get sl you through the night.felix said:
Rofl - we've just had actual polls which showed no differential swing in the marginals - on Thursday!BobaFett said:Ashcroft - swing Con to Lab, marginals: 6.5%.
God you don't just need a comfort blanket - you want a 500tog duvet. Look at how much the Tories out-performed on the Survation Local Election poll - by 5%, with Labour under-shooting by 2%. The 2015 GE is all to play for.
If you want to extrapolate the locals instead, fine. Labour four seats short.
Labour under-performed yesterday - 350 gains v expected 450 and 60% of those were in London.
Apparently acc. to you all the Tories have disappeared so I must be Labour as well!
BTW marginal polling is notoriously unreliable - I expect Ashcroft' s is better than most but in a real election yesterday the Labour lead was 2%. Only a fool would think it's all over.0 -
http://tinyurl.com/oneergc
Labour would take all but one of the seats polled, on swing would topple 83 MPs and lead to Miliband majority. UKIP show well in Thanet South and Thurrock but can't quite take either seat.0
